0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

2 visualizzazioni6 pagineApr 26, 2020

topic 4-20200309104138.pdf

© © All Rights Reserved

PDF, TXT o leggi online da Scribd

© All Rights Reserved

0 valutazioniIl 0% ha trovato utile questo documento (0 voti)

2 visualizzazioni6 paginetopic 4-20200309104138.pdf

© All Rights Reserved

Sei sulla pagina 1di 6

of inferential statistics.

pastian) or the relative likelihood (kebolehjadian relatif)

an event will occur.

making.

Experiment (uji kaji): An action or process that leads to An accounting firm has advertised the availability of its

one of several possible outcomes (kesudahan). report describing recent changes to the federal income tax

act. The following contingency table lists the probabilities of

Sample space (ruang sampel): A list of all possible medium by which the existing accounting firm clients

outcomes of the experiment. became aware of the report and their primary interest.

possible outcomes of an experiment. It is a subset of the Medium

Primary interest

sample space. Radio Website Facebook

Personal tax 0.17 0.10 0.03

The probability of any outcome or event expresses the Corporate tax 0.13 0.26 0.07

chance that the outcome or event will occur. It must lie

between 0 and 1. Goods and Services Tax 0.05 0.09 0.10

1

One client is selected at random, and five events are defined as Simple and Complementary Events

follows:

Simple event (peristiwa mudah): An event that can

C: The client is primarily interested in corporate tax.

be described by a single characteristic.

G: The client is primarily interested in goods and

The probability of an simple event will occur is known

services tax.

as marginal probability (kebarangkalian sut).

R: The client became aware of the report through radio.

Complement event (peristiwa pelengkap): The

complement of event A is the event that occurs when

W: The client became aware of the report through

event A does not occur.

company website.

The complement of event A is denoted by A’

F: The client became aware of the report through

Facebook.

Complement Rule : P (A) = 1 – P (A)

Intersections (persilangan) of events The addition rule enables us to calculate the probability

of the union of two events.

The intersection of events A and B is the event that

occurs when both A and B occur. Addition Rule :

intersection is called the joint probability

(kebarangkalian tercantum). Mutually exclusive events (peristiwa saling eksklusif)

Unions (kesatuan) of events The occurrence of one event means that none of the

others can occur at the same time, i.e. P (A and B) = 0

The union of events A and B is the event that occurs

when either A or B or both occur. P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)

It is denoted as A or B. if A & B are mutually exclusive events

2

Refer to Example 1 d) became aware of the report through the Facebook or

company website

Find the probability that the client

Since F & W are mutually exclusive events,

a) aware of the report through Facebook

P (F or W) = P (F) + P (W) = 0.20 + 0.45 = 0.65

P (F) = 0.20 --- marginal probability

e) is primarily interested in goods and services tax, or

b) is not primarily interested in goods and services tax became aware of the report through the radio or both

P (G) = 1 – P (G) = 1 – 0.24 = 0.76 Since G & R are not mutually exclusive events,

aware of the report through the company website

= 0.24 + 0.35 – 0.05 = 0.54

P (C and W) = 0.26 --- joint probability

(Peraturan Pendaraban)

Conditional probability (kebarangkalian bersyarat)

measures the likelihood of an event will occur, given The multiplication rule is used to calculate the joint

that another event has occurred. probability of two events. It is based on the formula

for conditional probability.

Conditional probability of event A, given that event B

has occurred is

Multiplication Rule :

( )

𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 = P (A and B) = P (A | B) P (B)

( )

has occurred is

( )

𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 =

( )

3

Independent Events Refer to Example 1

Objective of calculating conditional probability is to f) The probability that the client became aware of the

determine whether two events are independent. report through the radio, given that he or she is

primarily interested in corporate tax

Independent events (peristiwa tidak bersandar)

( ) .

𝑃 𝑅𝐶 = = = 0.2826

The occurrence of one event has no effect on the ( ) .

probability of the occurrence of any other event.

g) The probability that the client is primarily interested in

Two events A and B are said to be independent if goods and services tax, given that he or she became

aware of the report through the Facebook

P (A | B) = P (A) or P (B | A) = P (B)

( ) .

𝑃 𝐺𝐹 = = = 0.5

The Multiplication Rule for independent events ( ) .

Probability Trees

If R & C are independent events, we must have either

The Multiplication Rule can be illustrated using a

P (R | C) = P (R) or P (C | R) = P (C)

probability tree (pokok kebarangkalian). It is useful

in visualizing events that occur in sequence.

From the contingency table,

The resulting figure resembles a tree, hence the name.

P (R | C) P (R), R and C are not independent events.

At the ends of the “branches”, we calculate joint

probabilities as the product of the individual

Since R and C are not independent events, the joint

probabilities on the preceding branches.

probability of R and C, P (R and C) CANNOT be calculated

using the Multiplication Rule for independent events.

Therefore, P (R and C) P (R) x P (C)

4

Example 2: Probability Tree for Example 2

(Dependent Events)

A standard certification test was given at three locations. 1,000

candidates took the test at location A, 600 candidates at location Marginal

B, and 400 candidates at location C. The percentages of probability a) P (B) = 0.30

candidates from locations A, B, and C who passed the test were

70%, 68%, and 77%, respectively. One candidate is selected at b) P (P | A) = 0.70

random from among those who took the test.

c) P (C and P )

a) What is the probability that the selected candidate took

the test at location B? = P (C) x P (P | C)

= 0.20 x 0.23

b) What is the probability that the selected candidate

= 0.046

passed the test if he or she took the test at location A?

the test at location C and failed? probability

Bayes’ Law is a method of transforming the prior d) If the selected candidate passed the test, what is the

probability of an event into a posterior probability probability that the candidate took the test at

given that additional information is obtained. location A, B, and C respectively?

Prior probability (kebarangkalian prior) P (A) = 0.5 , P (B) = 0.3 , and P (C) = 0.2

The initial prob. based on the present level of info.

are called prior probabilities because they are

determined prior to the results of the test

Posterior probability (kebarangkalian posterior)

Bayes’ Law is an extension of the concept of are the given conditional probabilities

conditional probability

5

Therefore, the conditional probability P (A |P) and similar The revised probability that the candidate took the test at

conditional probabilities, P (B |P) and P (C |P) are called different location when the probability of passed the test,

posterior probabilities or revised probabilities because the P (P) is obtained can be calculated as follow

prior probabilities are revised after obtaining the results of

the test.

## Molto più che documenti.

Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori.

Annulla in qualsiasi momento.