Exercise 3.

Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel,
Movistar, ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart
summarizes the odds that each client has to stay in their current operator or
make a change of company.

STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB AVANTEL UFF

TIGO 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
COMCEL 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
MOVISTAR 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0
ETB 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
AVANTEL 0.1 0.15 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
UFF 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.2

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo
0.1 for Comcel 0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1, Avantel 0.1 and 0.2 for Uff
(initial state).

According to Table 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the

multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability
matrix (transition matrix). Answer:

a.   Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the
nexts 4 periods.

MATRIZ PARTICIPACIÓN
VECTOR 0.1 0.2
U V W X Y Z 0.1 0.2
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
0.1 0.3
0.1 0.15
0.1 0.2

0.1
PERIODO 2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
0.1
0.1
 0.1
0.1

PERIODO 2 0.1 0.235 0.215 0.19 0.15 0.11

PERIODO 3 0.1 0.235 0.215 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

PERIODO 3 0.1 0.233 0.219 0.167 0.1575 0.1235

PERIODO 4 0.1 0.233 0.219 0.167 0.1575 0.1235 0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

PERIODO 4 0.1 0.230725 0.220325 0.1699 0.15615 0.1229

PERIODO 5 0.1 0.230725 0.220325 0.1699 0.15615 0.1229 0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

PERIODO 5 0.1 0.231215 0.22035 0.169685 0.155888 0.122863

THE OPERATOR WITH MORE PROBABILITY THAT ITS CLIENTS STAY DURING THE FOLLOWING 4

PERIODS IS COMCEL WITH 0.230, 0.16 ETB AND 0.15 ADVANCE DUE TO THAT EXCEED THE

PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST PERIOD

n):

MATRIZ PARTICIPACIÓN
0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
0.2 0.2 0.2 0
0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2 0.3 0 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.15 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.15 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.15 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.15 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.2