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Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Introduction
Over the past 60 years, the U.S. relative supply of skills has increased,
but:
1 there has also been an increase in the college premium, and
2 this increase accelerated in the late 1960s, and the skill premium
increased very rapidly beginning in the late 1970s.
Standard explanation: skill bias technical change, and an acceleration
that coincided with the changes in the relative supply of skills.
Important question: skill bias is endogenous, so, why has
technological change become more skill biased in recent decades?
.6
.5
.4
.4
.2
.3 0
39 49 59 69 79 89 96
year
Relative Supply of College Skills and College Premium
Figure:
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 4 / 71
Biased Technological Change Importance
First phase. Late 1960s and early 1970s: unemployment and share of
labor in national income increased rapidly continental European
countries.
Second phase. 1980s: unemployment continued to increase, but the
labor share declined, even below its initial level.
Blanchard (1997):
Phase 1: wage-push by workers
Phase 2: capital-biased technological changes.
Is there a connection between capital-biased technological changes in
European economies and the wage push preceding it?
wH /wL = D (H/L, A)
A (H/L)
Y (t ) = F (L (t ) , H (t ) , A (t )) ,
∂F (L, H, A) L ∂F (L, H, A)
.
∂A A ∂L
Equivalent to:
the production function taking the special form, F (AL, H ).
Harrod-neutral technological change when L corresponds to labor and
H to capital.
H-augmenting de…ned similarly, and corresponds to F (L, AH ).
Skill premium
Relative supply
ω’ of skills
ω Relative demand
for skills
H/L
where
AL (t ) and AH (t ) are two separate technology terms.
γi s determine the importance of the two factors, γL + γH = 1.
σ 2 (0, ∞)=elasticity of substitution between the two factors.
σ = ∞, perfect substitutes, linear production function is linear.
σ = 1, Cobb-Douglas,
σ = 0, no substitution, Leontie¤.
σ > 1, “gross substitutes,”
σ < 1, “gross complements”.
Clearly, AL (t ) is L-augmenting, while AH (t ) is H-augmenting.
Whether technological change that is L-augmenting (or
H-augmenting) is L-biased or H-biased depends on σ.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 14 / 71
Biased Technological Change Basics and De…nitions
Equilibrium Bias
Weak equilibrium bias of technology: an increase in H/L, induces
technological change biased towards H. i.e., given (1):
σ 1
d (AH (t ) /AL (t )) σ
0,
dH/L
so AH (t ) /AL (t ) is biased towards the factor that has become more
abundant.
Strong equilibrium bias: an increase in H/L induces a su¢ ciently
large change in the bias so that the relative marginal product of H
relative to that of L increases following the change in factor supplies:
dMPH /MPL
> 0,
dH/L
The major di¤erence is whether the relative marginal product of the
two factors are evaluated at the initial relative supplies (weak bias) or
at the new relative supplies (strong bias).
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 17 / 71
Baseline Model of Directed Technical Change Environment
C (t ) + X (t ) + Z (t ) Y (t ) , (4)
and Z N H (t )
1
YH (t ) = xH (ν, t )1 β
d ν H β, (6)
1 β 0
Equilibrium I
Equilibrium II
max p L ( t ) YL ( t ) wL (t ) L (11)
L,[xL (ν,t )]ν2[0,N
L (t ) ]
Z N L (t )
pLx (ν, t ) xL (ν, t ) d ν,
0
and
max p H ( t ) YH ( t ) wH (t ) H (12)
H ,[xH (ν,t )]ν2[0,N
H (t ) ]
Z N H (t )
pHx (ν, t ) xH (ν, t ) d ν.
0
Equilibrium III
and
1/β
pH ( t )
xH (ν, t ) = H for all ν 2 [0, NH (t )] and all t. (14)
pHx (ν, t )
Equilibrium IV
and
xH (ν, t ) = pH (t )1/β H for all ν and all t.
Since these quantities do not depend on the identity of the machine
pro…ts are also independent of the machine type:
Thus the values of monopolists only depend on which sector they are,
VL (t ) and VH (t ).
Equilibrium V
Combining these with (5) and (6), derived production functions for
the two intermediate goods:
1 1 β
YL ( t ) = pL ( t ) β NL ( t ) L (16)
1 β
and
1 1 β
YH ( t ) = pH ( t ) β NH (t ) H. (17)
1 β
Equilibrium VI
σ (ε
ε 1) (1 β)
= 1 + (ε 1) β.
Equilibrium VII
wH (t )
ω (t )
wL (t )
NH ( t )
= p (t )1/β
NL ( t )
σ 1 1
ε NH ( t ) σ H σ
= γ σ . (19)
NL (t ) L
Equilibrium VIII
and
η H VH ( t ) 1 and η H VH (t ) = 1 if ZH (t ) > 0. (21)
Consumer side:
Ċ (t ) 1
= (r (t ) ρ) , (22)
C (t ) θ
and
Z t
lim exp r (s ) ds (NL (t ) VL (t ) + NH (t ) VH (t )) = 0,
t !∞ 0
(23)
where NL (t ) VL (t ) + NH (t ) VH (t ) is the total value of corporate
assets in this economy.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 30 / 71
Baseline Model of Directed Technical Change Characterization of Equilibrium
Next, using the two free entry conditions (20) and (21) as equalities,
we obtain the following BGP “technology market clearing” condition:
η L VL = η H VH . (26)
where η η H /η L .
Note that relative productivities are determined by the innovation
possibilities frontier and the relative supply of the two factors. In this
sense, this model totally endogenizes technology.
1 h i σ1 1
1 1
g = ε
β γH (η H H )σ + γLε (η L L)σ ρ . (29)
θ
Transitional Dynamics
Summary: the dynamic equilibrium path always tends to the BGP and
during transitional dynamics, there is only one type of innovation.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 35 / 71
Baseline Model of Directed Technical Change Directed Technological Change and Factor Prices
The results re‡ect the strength of the market size e¤ect: it always
dominates the price e¤ect.
But it does not specify whether this induced e¤ect will be strong
enough to make the endogenous-technology relative demand curve for
factors upward-sloping.
Substitute for (NH /NL ) from (27) into the expression for the
relative wage given technologies, (19), and obtain:
σ 2
wH 1 ε H
ω = ησ γ . (30)
wL L
Skill premium
ET2--endogenous
technology demand
ET1--endogenous
technology
demand
CT--constant
technology
demand
Discussion
Implications I
Implications II
Implications III
Skill premium
Short-run
Response
Exogenous Shift in
Relative Supply
Implications IV
Implications V
Skill premium
Initial premium
Long-run relative
Long-run premium demand for skills
Short-run
Response
Exogenous Shift in
Relative Supply
Implications VI
Other remarks:
Upward-sloping relative demand curves arise only when σ > 2. Most
estimates put the elasticity of substitution between 1.4 and 2. One
would like to understand whether σ > 2 is a feature of the speci…c
model discussed here
Results on induced technological change are not an artifact of the scale
e¤ect (exactly the same results apply when scale e¤ects are removed,
see below).
Thus:
σ 1
1/β
Y S (t ) = (1 β[γLε NLS (t ) L
σ
β) (31)
σ 1
σ
+γHε NHS (t ) H
σ
]σ 1 .
C S (t )1 θ 1
H( ) =
1 θ
+µL (t ) η L ZLS (t ) + µH (t ) η H ZHS (t ) ,
subject to
σ
σ 1 σ 1 σ 1
S 1/β
NLS NHS
σ σ
C (t ) = (1 β) γLε (t ) L + γHε (t ) H
ZLS (t ) ZHS (t ) .
1 h i σ1 1
1/β 1 1
gS = (1 β) β (1 γ)ε (η H H )σ + γ ε ( η L L) σ
θ
where δ 1.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 50 / 71
Directed Technological Change with Knowledge Spillovers Environment
and
η H NL (t )(1 δ)/2
NH (t )(1 +δ)/2 VH (t ) wS (t ) (35)
and η H NL (t )(1 δ)/2
NH (t )(1 +δ)/2 VH (t ) = wS (t ) if SH (t ) > 0,
η L NL (t )δ π L = η H NH (t )δ π H , (36)
Combine condition (36) with equations (15) and (18), to obtain the
equilibrium relative technology as:
σ 1
NH σ ε H 1 δσ
=η 1 δσ γ 1 δσ , (37)
NL L
σ>2 δ,
Consequently,
σ 1 σ 1
r (t ) K (t ) ε NK (t ) σ K (t ) σ
= γσ .
wL (t ) L (t ) NL (t ) L
ṄL (t ) ṄK (t )
= sK . (43)
NL (t ) NK (t )
Moreover:
" σ 1 # σ1 1
NL (t ) L σ
r (t ) = βγK NK (t ) γL + γL ) . (44)
NK ( t ) K ( t )
Stability
The constant growth path allocation with purely labor augmenting
technological change is globally stable if σ < 1.
Intuition:
If capital and labor were gross substitutes (σ > 1), the equilibrium
would involve rapid accumulation of capital and capital-augmenting
technological change, leading to an asymptotically increasing growth
rate of consumption.
When capital and labor are gross complements (σ < 1), capital
accumulation would increase the price of labor and pro…ts from
labor-augmenting technologies and thus encourage further
labor-augmenting technological change.
σ < 1 forces the economy to strive towards a balanced allocation of
e¤ective capital and labor units.
Since capital accumulates at a constant rate, a balanced allocation
implies that the productivity of labor should increase faster, and the
economy should converge to an equilibrium path with purely
labor-augmenting technological progress.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 13 December 13, 2011. 69 / 71
Conclusions Conclusions
Conclusions I
Conclusions II