Name VO NHU TUNG

Subject OPERATION MANAGEMENT

Chinese Name 武松
Student ID M08228209
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Question 2
Q2'!A1

Question 4
Q4'!A1

Question 8
Q8'!A1

Question 14
Q14'!A1

Question 19
Q.19!A1

Question 20
Q.20!A1

Question 21
Q21'!A1

Question 30
Q.30!A1
Naïve Forecast Stable
Season
Trend
Average Moving average

Weighted Moving Average

Exceptional Smoothing
Trend Equation Linear
Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Prevous forcast plus smooth error
Current trend estimate
Seasonality Seasonal Relative

Simple Everage Method

Previous data
Same season in previous year
Minus or add the gap between 2 previous values
n = number of period moving average forecast
MA3 = 3 period
Assign more weight to most recent value
Next forecast (t) = Previous forecast (t-1) + Alpha x ( Actual t-1 minus Forecast t -1)
Linest
TAF (t+1) = St + Tt
St = TAFt + alphax (At - TAFt)
Tt = Tt-1 + beta x (TAFt - TAFt-1 - Tt-1)
Deseasonalize data
Trend value is deseasonalized data ==> multiply seasonal relative
Compute the season average --> Compute the each seasonal average / seasonal average (index)
2.a Plot monthly data on the sheet
Feb 19
Mar 18 DATA TREND
Apr 15 22
May 20 19 20
18 18
Jun 18 15
Jul 22
Aug 20

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2.b Focast September Sales volume

(1) Naïve Approach
Varian around the average (without trend or cycles) there fore the previous month sales becomes the forecasted sales for Septem
Sep: 20
(2) A five month smoving Average
MA5 = (20 + 22 + 18 + 20 +15)/5 = 19.0
Sep: 19
(3) A weighted average using 0.6 for August, 0.3 for July and 0.1 for June
Forecast = 20*0.6 + 22* 0.3 + 0.1 *18 = 20.4
Sep: 20.4
(4) Exeptional Smoothing with a smoothing constant equal 0.2 and March Forcecast of 19
Start with Mar and use Feb as the forecast date for Mar
Period Sales Forecast
Feb 19
Mar 18 19
Apr 15 18.8
May 20 18.04
Jun 18 18.432
Jul 22 18.3456
Aug 20 19.07648
Sep: 19.261184

2.c Which method seems least appropriate?

Answer: Five moving average seems the least appropriate method because depending on the above plot, there is a unclear tre
But the amount of five month moving average is farest from the rising trend

2.d What does use the term sales instead of demand presume?
Answer: Because previous values are sales value therefore using sales presumption is more reasoanble
And because we can forecast the sales amount but the demands maybe much more larger and cannot foresee. There
 MAIN TAB

22
20
18

Jun Jul Aug

recasted sales for September

lot, there is a unclear trend that sales will continues to go up.

d cannot foresee. There many people with demand but without budget to buy.
4. Predict the number of request for week 6
Week 1 2 3 4 5
Requests 20 22 18 21 22

4.a Naïve approach

Varian around the average (without trend or cycles) there fore the previous week request becomes the forecast number in week
W6: 22
4.b A four weeks moving average
MA5 = (22+21+18+22)/4 = 20.8
W6: 20.8
4.c Exeptional Smoothing with a smoothing constant equal 0.3 and 20 for week 2 forecast

Week Request Forecast

1 20
2 22 20
3 18 20.6
4 21 19.82
5 22 20.174
W6: 20.7218
 MAIN TAB

orecast number in week 6

 Week (t) Passengers (y) ty t^2 y^2
1 405 405 1 164025
2 410 820 4 168100
3 420 1260 9 600
176400
500 420 420
4 415 1660 16 172225 405 410 415 412
400 f(x) = 4.59339525283798 x + 396.97385620915
5 412 2060 25 169744 300
6 420 2520 36 176400 200
7 424 2968 49 179776 100
1 2 3 4 5 6
8 433 3464 64 187489 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
9 438 3942 81 191844
10 440 4400 100 193600
11 446 4906 121 198916
12 451 5412 144 203401 a. Explain why an averaging technique would n
13 455 5915 169 207025 Answer: Because there is a clear trend of rising passen
14 464 6496 196 215296
15 466 6990 225 217156 b. Use an appropriate technique to develop a fo
16 474 7584 256 224676
17 476 8092 289 226576 b= (nΣty - ΣtΣy)/(nΣt^2-(Σt)^2)
18 482 8676 324 232324 a= (Σy-bΣt)/n
Total 7931 77570 2109 3504973 Correlation = b/(nΣy^2-(Σy)^2)
Σy 7931
Σt 171 W19 484.2484
n 18 W20 488.8418
nΣty 1396260 W21 493.4352
ΣtΣy 1356201
nΣt^2 37962
(Σt)^2 29241
b 4.593395
Correlation 0.987347
 Chart Title MAIN TAB

451 455 464 466 474 476 482

415 420 424 433 438 440 446
412
8 x + 396.97385620915

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Week (t) Passengers (y) Linear (Passengers (y))

aging technique would not be appropriate for forecasting?

ear trend of rising passengers in the above therefore using the averaging technique reflecting data in the past is maybe not appropriate

echnique to develop a forecast for the next three weeks

y)/(nΣt^2-(Σt)^2) = 4.593395 4.593395

= 396.9739 396.9739
b/(nΣy^2-(Σy)^2) = 0.987347 0.987347 Correlation coeffiction 0.974855

19
20
21
 474 476 482

16 17 18
16 17 18

s maybe not appropriate

 Week
1 2 3 4 5 6
Friday 149 154 152 150 159 163
Saturday 250 255 260 268 273 276
Sunday 166 162 171 173 176 183

14.a Develop seasonal relatives for the shop using the centered moving average The MAD3 or MAD 4 dep
Week Day Demand MA3 DEMAND/MA3
1 Friday 149
Saturday 250 188.33 1.33
Sunday 166 190.00 0.87
2 Friday 154 191.67 0.80
Saturday 255 190.33 1.34
Sunday 162 189.67 0.85
3 Friday 152 191.33 0.79
Saturday 260 194.33 1.34
Sunday 171 193.67 0.88
4 Friday 150 196.33 0.76
Saturday 268 197.00 1.36
Sunday 173 200.00 0.87
5 Friday 159 201.67 0.79
Saturday 273 202.67 1.35
Sunday 176 204.00 0.86
6 Friday 163 205.00 0.80
Saturday 276 207.33 1.33
Sunday 183

Day Friday Saturday Sunday

0.80 1.33 0.87
0.79 1.34 0.85
0.76 1.34 0.88 Number of variable
0.79 1.36 0.87
0.80 1.35 0.86
1.33 Sum: Multiplier
Average 0.79 1.34 0.87 3.00 1.00
Resulting
Relatives 0.79 1.34 0.87

14.b Develop seasonal relatives for the shop using SA Method

Week Average Resulting Relatives

1 2 3 4 5 6
Friday 149 154 152 150 159 163 154.50
Saturday 250 255 260 268 273 276 263.67
Sunday 166 162 171 173 176 183 171.83
Sum: 196.67

14.c Explain why the result of two methods correlate the way they do
Answer: Because 2 approaches aim to calculate the season relative in the different ways
 MAIN TAB

The MAD3 or MAD 4 depends on the number of variable

Number of variable 3

Resulting Relatives

0.79
1.34
0.87
Quarter Sales Quarter relatives Deseasonalized sales
1 88 1.1 80 MAIN TAB
2 99 0.99 100
3 108 0.9 120
4 141.4 1.01 140
The forcast is divided by s
>>> There is a trend: therefore the next period is 160
--> the sale for next period: 160*1.1
 MAIN TAB

The forcast is divided by sales

 t Unit Sold Naïve approach Linear Equation
11 147 146
12 148 147 148
13 151 148 150
14 145 151 152
15 155 145 154
16 152 155 156
17 155 152 158
18 157 155 160
19 160 157 162
20 165 160 164

t Unit Sold Naïve approach e |e| e^2

11 147
12 148 147 1 1 1
13 151 148 3 3 9
14 145 151 -6 6 36
15 155 145 10 10 100
16 152 155 -3 3 9
17 155 152 3 3 9
18 157 155 2 2 4
19 160 157 3 3 9
20 165 160 5 5 25
Sum: 36 202
With Naïve approach:
MAD= Σ|e|/n = 4 5.49390630935291
MSE= Σe^2/(n-1) = 25.25
With Linear Equation
MAD= Σ|e|/n = 2.3
MSE= Σe^2/(n-1) = 10.11

Ans: Because both MAD and MSE of naïve approach are bigger than that of Linear Equation therefore Linear Equation is be
 MAIN TAB

Linear Equation e |e| e^2

146 1 1 1
148 0 0 0
150 1 1 1
152 -7 7 49
154 1 1 1
156 -4 4 16
158 -3 3 9
160 -3 3 9
162 -2 2 4
164 1 1 1
23 91

efore Linear Equation is better

 Predicted Demand
Period Demand F1 e |e|
1 68 66 2 2
2 75 68 7 7
3 70 72 -2 2
4 74 71 3 3
5 69 72 -3 3
6 72 70 2 2
7 80 71 9 9
8 78 74 4 4
Sum: 22 32

With F1:
MAD= Σ|e|/n = 4
MSE= Σe^2/(n-1) = 25.1428571428571
With F2:
MAD= Σ|e|/n = 3
MSE= Σe^2/(n-1) = 15.1428571428571

21.a
Answer: As the result above, F2 is better than F1 because MAD of F2 is less than MAD of F1
21.b
Answer: As the result above, F2 is better than F1 because MSE of F2 is less than MSE of F1
21.c
MAD is the easiest to compute but weights error linearly. MSE squares errors giving more weight to larger errors. Which can le
21.d
MAPE F1: Σ(n)((|et|x100)/actual t)/n) = 0.053
MAPE F2: Σ(n)((|et|x100)/actual t)/n) = 0.041

MAPE F2 is less than MAPE F1 then MAPE F2 is more accurate

d Demand
e^2 F2 e |e| e^2
MAIN TAB
4 66 2 2 4
49 68 7 7 49
4 70 0 0 0
9 72 2 2 4
9 74 -5 5 25
4 76 -4 4 16
81 78 2 2 4
16 80 -2 2 4
176 2 24 106

e weight to larger errors. Which can lead to more problems

MAIN TAB
 Month Error |e| e^2 Mean UCL LCL
1 -8 8 64 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
MAIN TAB
2 -2 2 4 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
3 4 4 16 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
4 7 7 49 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
5 9 9 81 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
6 5 5 25 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
7 0 0 0 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
8 -3 3 9 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
9 -9 9 81 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278
10 -4 4 16 -0.1 12.282784 -12.48278

Sum: 345

S= Sqrt(Σ(e^2)/(n-1)) = 6.1913919
The control Limit are 2 (6.033241) = (+-) 12.38278

Answer: Can conclude that with 2s limit the forecast method works properly

-0.1
MAIN TAB
Chart Title
15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-5

-10

-15

Error Mean UCL LCL

 Month Error Accumulated Error MADt Tracking Signal |e|
1 -8 -8 8
2 -2 -10 2
3 4 -6 4
4 7 1 7
5 9 10 9
6 5 15 5
7 0 15 0
8 -3 12 3
9 -9 3 9
10 -4 -1 4
11 1 0 4.73 0.00 1
12 6 6 4.85 1.24 6
13 8 14 5.17 2.71 8
14 4 18 5.05 3.56 4
15 1 19 4.65 4.09 1
16 -2 17 4.38 3.88 2
17 -4 13 4.34 2.99 4
18 -8 5 4.71 1.06 8
19 -5 0 4.74 0.00 5
20 -1 -1 4.36 -0.23 1

Sum:

S= Sqrt(Σ(e^2)/(n-1)) =
The control Limit are 2 (6.033241)

Answer: Can conclude that with 2s limit the forecast method works properly
e^2
64 MAIN TAB
4
16
49
81
25
0
9
81
16
1
36
64
16
1
4
16
64
25
1

573

5.8821765
= (+-) 11.764353
 Forecast Actual
Aug 0.88 0.89
Sep 0.881 0.92
Oct 0.8849 a) Actual Forcast smoothing constant 0.1
Aug 89.6 88
A dry cleaner uses Assume SeSep 92 88.16 Forcast for September
Oc 88.544 Forcast for Oc
g constant 0.1

r September
a. Increasing because slope is postive and go up 15.000 by year A cosmetics
b. Ft= 80 +15t
Ft= Annual Sales (000 bottles)
1990 0 80
1991 1 95 a) Annual Sales are increasing by 15(000) bottles
1992 2 110 Because 15 *1(annual) =15
1993 3 125
1994 4 140 b) Predict for yeat 6
1995 5 155 F6= 170
1996 6 170
1997 7 185
1998 8 200
1999 9 215
2000 10 230
2001 11 245
2002 12 260
2003 13 275
2004 14 290
2005 15 305
2006 16 320
by 15(000) bottles
Y=500-20X
Week Number
1 220
2 245 Chart Title
3 280 600
4 275
500 f(x) = 18.9958720330237 x + 208.483660130719
5 300
6 310 400
7 350
8 360 300
9 400
200
10 380
11 420 100
12 450
0
13 460 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
14 475
Week Number
15 500
16 510
17 525 b 18.99587
18 541 a 208.48

20 w20 588.3974
21 w21 607.3933
c 31.1394 Tuần thứ 32

0.995025
 Chart Title

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Number Linear (Number)

Period new account (At) F(t) TAFt St Tt Alpha 0.3
1 200 202.47 202.47 201.729 - Beta 0.2
2 214 209.47 201.73 205.4103 (0.15)
3 211 216.47 205.262 206.98347 0.59
4 228 223.47 207.572 213.70007 0.93
5 235 230.47 214.632405 220.74268 2.16 350
6 232 237.47 222.900726 225.63051 3.38 300
7 248 244.47 229.010606 234.70742 3.93 f(x) = 7 x + 195.466666666667
250
8 250 251.47 238.633478 242.04343 5.07
9 253 258.47 247.108853 248.8762 5.75 200

10 267 265.47 254.623606 258.33652 6.10 150

11 281 272.47 264.437403 269.40618 6.84 100
12 275 279.47 276.249644 275.87475 7.84
50
13 280 286.47 283.711968 282.59838 7.76
0
14 288 293.47 290.360617 289.65243 7.54 1 2 3 4 5 6
15 310 300.47 297.191953 301.03437 7.40
Column
16 307.47 308.43 Linear
17 314.47
18 321.47
19 328.47

a 195.47
b 7

Period New account (At) F(t) TAFt St Tt a= 195.47

1 200 202.47 202.47 201.729 0 b= 7
2 214 209.47 201.729 =
3 211 216.47 Alpha 0.3
4 228 223.47 Beta 0.2
5 235 230.47
6 232 237.47
7 248 244.47
8 250 251.47
9 253 258.47
10 267 265.47
11 281 272.47
12 275 279.47
13 280 286.47
14 288 293.47
15 310 300.47
16 307.47
17 314.47
18 321.47
19 328.47
 Chart Title

= 7 x + 195.466666666667

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Column A Column B
Linear (Column B)

Chart Title
350

300
f(x) = 7 x + 195.466666666667
250

200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Period New account (At)

Linear (New account (At))
Period Actual TAF St Tt Alpha 0.5
1 210 Beta 0.4
2 224
3 229
4 240 240 240 10
5 255 250 257 10
6 265 267 265 10
7 272 275 272 10
8 285 282 285 10
9 294 295 294 10
10 304
No Month Amount Prediction
0 June 70
1 July 75
2 August 80
3 September 85
4 October 90
5 November 95
6 December 100
7 January 105 115.5 105 115.5
8 February 110 112.2
9 March 115 109.25
Quarter Deseasonalized Forecast Relatives Forecast
1 35.5 1.1 39.05
2 35 1 35
3 38.5 0.6 23.1
4 46 1.3 59.8
6 73 1.1 80.3

Ft=40-6.5t+2*t^2
 Day Portion Seasonal Relative
Wednesday 0.15 0.6
Thurday 0.2 0.8
Friday 0.35 1.4
Saturday 0.3 1.2
Average 0.25
Week Passenger
1 405
2 410
3 420 Chart Title
4 415 600
5 412
500
6 420
f(x) = 4.59339525283798 x + 396.97385620915
7 424 400
8 433
300
9 438
10 440 200
11 446
100
12 451
13 455 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14 464
Week Passenger
15 466
Linear (Passenger)
16 474
17 476
18 482
13 14 15 16 17 18

Passenger
Day Number Served MA7 Number Served/MA7
7 40 91.43 0.438
7 42 92.71 0.453
7 44 96.00 0.458
7 48

Number 1 2 3 4
0.89827856025039 0.8421875 0.873634945397816 1.04889589905
0.90322580645161 0.833587786259542 0.882978723404255 1.0233281493
0.90222222222222 0.839181286549708 0.895348837209302 1.01818181818
1.00144508671
Average 0.90124219630808 0.838318857603083 0.883987502003791 1.02296273831
Seasonal 0.90 0.84 0.88 1.02
Relative

Day 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

1 80 82 84 87
2 75 77 78 82
3 78 80 83 88
4 95 94 96 99
5 130 131 135 144
6 136 137 140 144
7 40 42 44 48
Average
 5 6 7
1.4308176100629 1.4921630094 0.4375
1.4217054263566 1.4845201238 0.4530046225
1.4253393665158 1.4692653673 0.4583333333 Multiplier 0.9994

1.4259541343118 1.4819828335 0.4496126519

1.43 1.48 0.45

Average Seasonal Relative

83.25 0.8866489159
78 0.8307341194
82.25 0.8759984785
96 1.0224419932
135 1.4378090529
139.25 1.4830734119
43.5 0.4632940281
93.892857142857
Day Sold TAF St Tt |e| e^2
1 36
2 38
3 42
4 44
5 48
6 49
7 50
8 49 50.00 49.70 2.00 1.00 1.00
9 52 51.70 51.79 1.91 0.30 0.09
10 48 53.70 51.99 1.94 5.70 32.49
11 52 53.93 53.35 1.42 1.93 3.71
12 55 54.77 54.84 1.25 0.23 0.05
13 54 56.09 55.46 1.27 2.09 4.37
14 56 56.74 56.51 1.08 0.74 0.54
15 57 57.60 57.42 1.02 0.60 0.36
16 58.43 12.58 42.62

alpha 0.3
beta 0.3

MSE 6.088
 Chart Title
60
f(x) = 1.325 x + 38.0666666666667
50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Day Sold Linear (Sold)