Argumentative Text

Article from newspaper

Global economy at an inflection point?
 The Edge Malaysia (November 4, 2019)
 MY Say by Nor Zahidi Alias
If you are confused about the present state of the global economy, you can be
excused. The fact of the matter is, everyone is confused — including many
economists. After all, we are seeing so many important international political and
economic developments taking place concurrently, dramatically increasing
uncertainty around the world. No surprises then that business and investor
sentiments have gone on a wild rollercoaster ride recently.

Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL

are confused Present Simple 1 3
is Present Simple 1
is Present Simple 1
are seeing Present Progressive 1 1
have gone Present Perfect 1 1

Table 2
VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE
are confused Present Simple 1 express general statements
(passive voice)
is Present Simple 1 Express general statement
is Present Simple 1 Express general statement
are seeing Present Progressive 1 Describe action in progress
have gone Present Perfect 1 To talk about something in
the past but the results is
important now

We also hear contrarian views about the global (and US) economy every other
day. A case in point — an economist from a global credit rating agency who was
recently interviewed by CNBC points out that there is an “awfully high” risk of a
global recession in the next 12 to 18 months if the trade war continues and Brexit-
related issues persist. He opines that even if the recession does not happen within
this period, the global economy will be much weaker in the near term.
Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL

hear Present Simple 1 5
is Present Simple 2
continues Present Simple 3
opines Present Simple 4
Does not happen Present Simple 5
Was recently interviewed Past Simple 1 1

Table 2

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE:

hear Present Simple 1 describe repeated action
is Present Simple 2 Talk about future action
continues Present Simple 3 Talk about future action
opines Present Simple 4 Perform an action while
speaking
Does not happen Present Simple 5 Talk about future action
(conditional)
Was recently interviewed Past Simple 1 Single past action that is
finished (passive voice)

In contrast, another prominent economist, Robert Shiller, is looking at things from

a totally different perspective. He believes that a recession may be years away. His
opinion is largely based on what he describes as the “bullish Trump effect” in the
market, which is inducing consumers to remain on the high street. He says this
resilience in consumer spending will continue to support the US economy in the
near term.

Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL

believes Present Simple 1 5
is largely based Present Simple 2
describes Present Simple 3
says Present Simple 4
Will continue Present Simple 5
is inducing Present Progressive 1 2
is looking Present Progressive 2

Table 2

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE

believes Present Simple 1 Express general
statement
is largely based Present Simple 2 General statement
 (passive voice)
describes Present Simple 3 express things that are
true for a long time
says Present Simple 4 express things that are
true for a long time
Will continue Present Simple 5 Talk about future actions
is inducing Present Progressive 1 talk about changing
situations
is looking Present Progressive 2 describe actions in
progress

The truth is, there is no clarity as to where the economy is heading. The only
surety now is that the global economy is losing its momentum. Global trade,
semiconductor sales, capital spending, crude oil prices — you name it — have all
been sliding in the past 6 to 12 months from their peaks. The only bright spot so
far, as Shiller points out, is consumer spending. Consumers, especially in the US,
are still relatively unfazed by prevailing global economic uncertainties. Indeed,
their discretionary spending reflects none of those uncertainties at this juncture.
This is similar to the situation in Malaysia, where consumers have been
propelling the overall expansion and contributed over 90% to gross domestic
product growth in the first half of the year.
Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL

is Present Simple 1 8
is Present Simple 2
is Present Simple 3
is Present Simple 4
Are still relatively Present Simple 5
unfazed
name Present Simple 6
reflects Present Simple 7
points Present Simple 8
Is consumer spending Present Progressive 1 3
Is losing Present Progressive 2
Is heading Present Progressive 3
Have been propelling Present Perfect 1 2
Progressive
Have all been sliding Present Perfect 2
Progressive
contributed Past Simple 1 1

Table 2
VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE
is Present Simple 1 Express general
statement
is Present Simple 2 express things that are
true for a long time
is Present Simple 3 Express general
statement
is Present Simple 4 express things that are
true for a long time
Are still relatively Present Simple 5 general statement
unfazed (passive voice)
name Present Simple 6 perform an action
while speaking
reflects Present Simple 7 express things that are
true for a long time
points Present Simple 8 express things that are
true for a long time
Is consumer spending Present Progressive 1 talk about behaviour
that happens more
often than expected
Is losing Present Progressive 2 describe actions in
progress
Is heading Present Progressive 3 express future plans

Have been propelling Present Perfect 1 Action that started in

Progressive the past and is still
continuing
Have all been sliding Present Perfect 2 Action that started in
Progressive the past and is still
continuing
contributed Past Simple 1 Single past action that
is finished
But the question that businesses (and consumers) may be asking now is, how
weak is the economy compared with past economic downturns? Is the current soft
patch similar in magnitude to the one we saw in 2016, when global crude oil prices
halved from their peak? Or are we likening the situation to the famous “cycling in
the air” act of the Looney Tunes’ Wile E Coyote before he plunges into the valley?
In other words, how does the present weakness stack up against the economic
downcycles of, say, the dotcom bubble burst or the global financial crisis (GFC)?

Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL:

May be asking Present Simple 1
is Present Simple 2 7
is Present Simple 3
Is Present Simple 4
say Present Simple 5
plunges Present Simple 6
does Present Simple 7
saw Past Simple 1 1
Are we likening Present Progressive 1 1

Table 2

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE:

May be asking Present Simple 1 talk about future
actions
is Present Simple 2 express general
statements
is Present Simple 3 express general
 statements
Is Present Simple 4 talk about future
actions
say Present Simple 5 Express general
statement
plunges Present Simple 6 talk about future
action
does Present Simple 7 express general
statements
saw Past Simple 1 Completed action in
the past
Are we likening Present Progressive 1 talk about changing
situations

To answer this, some statistics are worth looking at. In terms of global trade
momentum, the following has been observed. As at June this year, we can see
that eight months after hitting its peak in October last year, the global trade volume
index, published by CPB Global Trade Monitor, fell by 3.5%. During the GFC
downturn, the same index showed a 2.8% contraction, eight months after hitting
the peak of the cycle in January 2008. During the dotcom crisis, however, the
index fell by almost 5%, eight months after the peak of the cycle. Thus, from the
trade perspective, the situation at this juncture is slightly more severe than during
the GFC downturn. This is not surprising as the trade war has eroded global
business sentiment and caused a significant deterioration in international trade
activity.
Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL

is Present Simple 1 2
Can see Present Simple 2
fell Past Simple 1 2

fell Past Simple 2

Are worth looking Present Progressive 1 2
Is not surprising Present Progressive 2
Has eroded Present Perfect 1 2
Has been observed Present Perfect 2

Table 2

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE

is Present Simple 1 express general statements
of facts
Can see Present Simple 2 express general statements
of facts
fell Past Simple 1 Completed action in the
past
fell Past Simple 2 Completed action in the
past
Are worth looking Present Progressive 1 describe current situation
as temporary
Is not surprising Present Progressive 2 describe current situation
as temporary
Has eroded Present Perfect 1 talk about something that
happened in the
past but the result is
important now
Has been observed Present Perfect 2 express something that
started in the past
and is still continuing in
the present

At the same time, global manufacturing momentum is slipping at a faster pace

than during the GFC downturn. This can be seen from the industry benchmark
indicator, namely the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which
slipped 16% by the 11th month following its peak in August last year. During the
GFC, the same index fell by 9%. The present weakness almost matches the decline
seen during the dotcom bubble burst, when the index dropped 17% over the
course of 11 months following its peak.

Table 1

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL:

Can be seen Present Simple 1 2
matches Present Simple 2
Is slipping Present Progressive 1 1
fell Past Simple 1 3
slipped Past Simple 2
dropped Past Simple 3

VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE:

Can be seen Present Simple 1 talk about future
actions
matches Present Simple 2 express things that are
true for a long time
Is slipping Present Progressive 1 talk about changing
situations
fell Past Simple 1 Completed action in
the past
slipped Past Simple 2 Completed action in
the past
dropped Past Simple 3 Completed action in
the pas

A closer look at a specific segment of global trade — semiconductor sales —

reveals an opposite picture. Global sales declined less in the current downturn
compared with the previous two downcycles. For instance, eight months after
peaking in October last year, global semiconductor sales fell by 22%. This
compares favourably with the past two downturns when sales dropped 27%
during the GFC and 38% during the dotcom bubble burst, eight months after their
peaks. So, essentially, the pace of decline in global semiconductor sales has not
been as severe as before at this point.

Table 1
VERB TENSE FREQUENCY TOTAL:
reveals Present Simple 1 1
compares Present Simple 2
compared Past Simple 1 4
fell Past Simple 2
declined Past Simple 3
dropped Past Simple 4
Has not been Present Perfect 1 1

Table 2
VERB TENSE FREQUENCY USE:
reveals Present Simple 1 express things that are
true for a long time
compares Present Simple 2 express things that are
true for a long time
compared Past Simple 1 Completed action in
the past
fell Past Simple 2 Completed action in
the past
declined Past Simple 3 Completed action in
the past
dropped Past Simple 4 Completed action in
the past
Has not been Present Perfect 1 express something that
started in the past and
is still continuing in the
present