Sei sulla pagina 1di 16

Relative Out Performance of Emerging Markets

During Dec 2000 to Dec 2010


India's BSE out performed US DJIA and FTSE100 by over 370%

Prepared in Dec 2010; Century.Partners03@Gmail.Com


During Last 11 Years, Net Return is ZERO for US DJIA (11,500 Jan 2000 vs. 11,500 Dec 2010) and
Down 10% for EU FTSE100 (6500 Jan 2000 vs. 5900 Dec 2010).

Despite all the economic activities which happened during the last decade in USA and Europe, the net return for an
investor was ZERO. This is what the data tells us, not our opinion or thought but the harsh reality. This too, when
we have not included inflation into consideration, if we add that, investors lost a third of their investment in the last
decade.

This is a well known fact on the Wall Street and in the City that more than 95% of the Money Managers can't beat
the benchmark index over a long period of time, so the net returns for an average investor will be worse than this.

We are also not including the trading expenses and money management charges as they will further increase the dent
in the losses occurred.

We will not be wrong, if we say, that most of the investors in the developed markets lost around 50% of their
net investment worth during the last decade despite all the claims made by investors across the board.

We don't see how the present economic and social problems faced by the developed markets will vanish overnight
and what other changes will lead to better investment returns in the decade ahead. Even in US and Europe, the
companies who had exposure to emerging markets did relatively well compared to their peers just focused on the
developed markets.

During the same duration when DJIA gave ZERO returns, India's BSE multi-folded by around 4 Times and this is
just the beginning of Multi Decade Bull Market as also mentioned by Billionaire Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (Warren
Buffett of India).

This unbiased study is based on economic and financial data sets and should be an eye opener to all the
investors to look beyond the boundaries and start investing in funds focused on emerging markets.
During Dec 2000 - Dec 2010, India's BSE is up 380%,
US DJIA is up 10%, FTSE is down 4% and Gold ETF is up 198%.
India's BSE Outperformed US Dow Jones by 70% during Mar09 to Nov10
Proving True the Theory of Decoupling of Emerging Markets from Developed Markets.
India's BSE Outperformed US Dow Jones by 40% during Apr08 to Nov10
India's BSE Outperformed US Dow Jones by 35% during Oct07 to Nov10
Increasing Federal Debt to GDP Ratio will bring down the profitability of US Inc.

Debt to GDP of a country reflects Leverage.


Historically it is a known fact for a country, that
when the Debt to GDP ratio crosses 80%, it's
stock markets have done poorly.
US DJIA was Sideways during 1945 to 1951 (6 Years) when the Debt to
GDP ratio was above 80%.

The reason for under performance of stock market during this period is very clear, as when the
leverage of the country is high, most of the country's earnings goes towards servicing the debt. This
deterioration in profits starts percolating in the Corporate world. Once the Debt to GDP ratio fell
below 80% and moved towards 40%, US economy flourished and the stock market rallied.
US DJIA is Sideways During Jan 2008 to Dec 2010 when the Debt to GDP
ratio is above 80%.

If we simplify the Debt/GDP historic data and take the most optimistic view, it can be said that
more than 4 years of sideways performance is left for US markets. EU Debt to GDP ratio is in much
worse shape. Only permanent viable option for the investors in developed market is to look towards
Emerging Markets where this ratio is still under control and will be like that for the decade ahead.
Highlights of Indian Economy
My comments on Indian economy from Year 2009:

• Goldman Sachs economist Jim O' Neill was the first to show the potential significance of BRIC
economies in 2003. Their forecast of ~ 5% annual growth rate of India's GDP looked very optimistic
at that time. Given the present growth rate, in 2008, they revised the estimate growth rate to 8.5%
per year for the next decade.

• We now have a decade (2000 to 2009) worth of economic data to substantiate our thesis. During
the last decade, India's economy grew from USD 0.45 Trillion to USD 1.3 Trillion (3 times)
averaging a solid growth of ~ 9% per year.

• With this new feasible growth rate pegged, India's best days lies ahead and it has the potential to
become the third largest economy by 2025 (nominal GDP of ~ USD 5 Trillion) after USA (estimate:
USD 20 Trillion) and China (estimate: USD 19 Trillion).

• Another fact to ponder: Based on purchasing power, India is already the 4th largest economy with
a GDP(PPP) of ~ USD 3.9 Trillion, very close to Number 3, Japan (USD 4.4 Trillion).

• One very crucial factor which further strengthens our thesis in India is the present resilience shown
by Indian economy and companies. Despite the severe global downturn, internal political turmoil
and many other inherent risks, India's nominal GDP grew by ~ 7.0% in 2009. This leads to an
additional confidence that starting 2010 when the global economy will recover, India may again
start growing close to 8.5% for the foreseeable future.
Highlights of Indian Economy Contd.
• Another leading indicator is the great growth economic reality of China (which now is the second
largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of USD 4.9 Trillion). China's economic reform
started (late 1970's) more than a decade ago than India's reform (early 1990's) and in last two
decades, China has maintained close to 10% annual growth rate. Although China and India have
different economic growth model (China is a manufacturing based economy & India is a service
based economy) it gives us a fair reason to trust the assumption that India may also maintain its
present 8.5% annual growth rate for the next decade.

• Due to large human capital, knowledge base and natural resources, Indian economy should
continue to grow multi-folds along with it's companies for decades ahead.

• Given the future constructive growth potential, key sectors like Construction, Real Estate, Retail,
Financial, Insurance, Energy, Health Care, Media are all presently undervalued.

• Economic dominance of Asia in the 21st century is going to boost India's economy as its growing
trade with China and Japan will provide additional growth. Starting 2015, Asia will start
contributing more to the world economy, an equivalent of USD 17 Trillion compared to United
State's USD 16.5 Trillion and Euro Zone's USD 16 Trillion .

• Considering all of the above points, it is beneficial for global institutions to stay invested in the
emerging markets as they present great growth potential. Also, India is starting from a lower base,
so the net rate of return will always exceed the returns from the developed economies.
My message to Managers in March 2008: Profitable opportunities for US
investors in Mar 2008 – China & India
http://valueinvestornyc.blogspot.com/2010/09/my-message-to-managers-in-march-2008.html

Profitable opportunities for US investors in 2008 – China & India


As per Jim Rogers, China and India in 2007 are what England was in 1807 and New York was in 1907. He has been
right about the fact that we entered commodities bull market in 1999. Since last decade China has outperformed in
the BRIC category and since last few years, India has shown tremendous potential opportunities for growth. My
main message here to US investors is how they can increase their returns by investing in the Asian markets.
Recently, times have been very tough in the US equity market, so “US equity long only” strategy is not proving to be
a profitable one. So how can investors stay inside their circle of competence and still do new things which they
haven’t done before and generate good returns.
Confidence of US investors is quite shaken in the present market scenario and they are bit skeptical about the future
market risks as well. In these conditions, it can be very hard for them to trust in countries they have never visited,
forget about investing. In that case, one should look at smart investors like Jim Rogers who is long Asian markets
and profiting from their unprecedented growth since last one decade. Legendary investor like Warren Buffett for
many years is investing in companies which have huge exposure to Asian market (for example ISCAR, Petro China,
Coke)

The present statistics of the US equity market is indicating that stock market has not given the kind of return which
shareholders were looking for. Especially in the last one year, all the major sectors have got severely hit and still
there are no signs of improvement in the coming few years. There are growing economic concerns over increase in
US trade deficits, falling dollar value, decline in housing value, severe credit crunch, and high commodity prices
leading to all time high inflation.
Financial sector has lost almost half of its value compared to last year, this is unprecedented as never was a time
when the entire finance sector was so heavily leveraged. Now when the housing bubble burst is in its early innings,
the impact can be seen all over the place, not leaving any sector intact. All the major hedge funds, mutual funds, asset
management companies have seen severe haircuts in their portfolio gains, reason being they are heavily allocated
towards the US equity and not towards the commodity and emerging markets. Yes, they own little bit here and there
but not sufficient enough to cover up for the losses made by US equity group. In my opinion, there is an urgent need
to change the portfolio allocation and apply few new investing strategies, while staying inside our circle of
competence.

Following the footsteps of legends like Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers, I can see new ways in which US investors
can safely benefit from the Asia’s growth story. Since decades, Warren is concerned over the rising trade deficit of
US, which will eventually devaluate its currency. At age 72, for the first time, to hedge for future currency losses, he
went short over dollar. Later on finding Petro China cheap on valuation basis, he bought half billion dollar worth of
the stock and made seven fold returns in three years. Berkshire has a majority stake in Coke and Warren likes its
Asian market more than that of the US. The main reason being the number of middle class consumers in Asia is now
comparable to that here in US. It is well evident, that the per capita consumption of consumer good items is going to
increase in Asia at a much fast rate than in the US. Due to Warren’s ability to look a decade ahead, makes the
Berkshire Hathaway stock a safety net. Now looking at Jim Rogers, he is heavily bullish over Asia and is invested
their through stocks and commodities since a long time. He understands the need to go long over commodities as the
entire Asian countries need it to fuel their economic growth. So the lessons which we can take from these two
legendary investors are to focus on Asian stock market and going long over commodities. Initially these two
combined can be a small part of the portfolio and based on the experience, one can vary his allocation. In the US
equity part of the portfolio, one needs to be long on companies, who are heavily exposed to countries outside the US,
so that they can hedge against the dollar decline.

In the next page, I will do a small case study on chances and effects of US going into recession.
Case study: Chances of US going into a recession and what it means for the US investors

Case 1: US economy escapes a recession. In July 2008 GDP shows a marginal growth over past 2
quarters & mortgage crisis is over and all the consumer indexes show an uptrend.

Probability of Case 1 happening – 10%.


If this happens, then there is no need for investors to change their portfolio allocation and they can
continue with their present strategies.
Case 2: US economy enters a mild recession i.e. of close to 1.5 years and we see GDP growth in
July 2009 and all other problems get over.

Probability of Case 2 happening – 30%.

In this case, investors have to change their strategy and portfolio allocation by 15%, it means they
have to look for opportunities outside US and look for other strategies other than US equity long
only, like short dollar, short financials to name a few.
Case 3: US economy enters a medium term recession for 2.5 years and economy recovers by July
2010 and by then the mortgage crisis is over, consumer is back, spending.
Probability of Case 3 happening – 50%.

In this case, investors have to really take a closer look at their portfolio and change their allocation
by at least 25% and get exposed to Asian market, ETF, currency, real estate, commodities. If there is
a good return, then they can increase their portfolio allocation. Rest of the 75% of portfolio needs to
be only in companies which are present around the globe, to be hedged against any major risk in US
economy.

Case 4: US economy enters a severe recession by not showing any improvement till July 2011

Probability of Case 4 happening – 10%.


If this happens then the ideal thing will be to change the portfolio considerably & look for deep
value in the US equity market, buy stocks with long term potential at a great margin of safety. In the
current scenario, if the US economy goes into recession, then it will not spare the economic growth
around the globe. Decoupling theory is proving to be wrong as cracks in the global market is clearly
evident. Still the fact remains that 2.5 billion people live in China and India and most of them are
productive and contribute daily towards the growth of their nation. Also the scope of growth is
immense, as at present, basic infrastructure is not present in these two countries. Pretty soon when
the well educated human capital will start delivering in every possible sector, then one cannot ignore
the positive outcome. In those circumstances, the growth will be phenomenal, creating a cycle of
more development, more jobs, high income, leading to higher living standards, meaning more
spending, more demand and hence more supply. So now is the time to understand the Asian
economic cycle to reap the fruits of future growth.
Conclusion: This the Right Time to Invest in India and Other Emerging Markets

One has to go beyond the low cost labor and think in terms of “Wealth at the bottom of the
pyramid”. Once the middle class of both the nations rises, then the consumption cycle will lead to
massive growth. China has prowess in manufacturing and India is advanced in the service sector.
Going forward there is going to be a great symbiosis in between China and India in terms of
business relationships and that will accelerate their economic development. The US companies who
are located there will enjoy massive growth few years down the line. Major profit share will go to
the local companies who understand its consumer’s lot better than their US counterparts. So to get
the real growth one needs to look at the future prospects of these local companies and include in
their research. Investors can focus on the kind of companies they invest in US market and look for
similar companies in the Asian market and search for value. In this way they will stay inside their
circle of competence and will be able to increase their returns.

For investors, fund managers, my suggestion is to modify their portfolio capital allocation, look for
high quality emerging market stocks, ETF’s, essential commodities and focus on companies with
high exposure to Asia. By changing their strategies towards emerging markets, they can reap
immensely going forward and hedge against any future slowdown in the developed markets.

Disclaimer: This Report is for information purpose only and express our views about the company, not an offer to buy or sell.
Risks involved in investing is not suitable for all kinds of investors. Seek professional advice if this research is suitable for you.