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For Example -
CONTENTS (i) If a coin is tossed then favourable cases of getting
H is 1.
Definiation
(ii) If a dice is thrown then favourable case for getting
Terms 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, is 1.
(iii) If two dice are thrown, then favourable cases
Approaces Probability of getting a sum of numbers as 9 are four i.e
(4,5), (5,4), (3,6), (6,3).
Types of experimental Probability
Sample Space :
The set of all possible outcomes of a trial is called
DEFINITIONS its sample space. It is generally denoted by S and
each outcome of the trial is said to be a point of
Words 'chance' probably, or most probably etc. sample of S.
shows uncertainty in our statements.
For example
The uncertainity of 'probably' etc. can be measured
numerically by means of 'probability'. (i) If a die is thrown once, then its sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
TERMS
(ii) If two coins are tossed together then its sample
Definitions : space
S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}.
Trial and Event :
APPROACHES PROBABILITY
An experiment is called a trial if it results in
anyone of the possible outcomes and all the (i) Experimental or Empirical or observed frequency
possible outcomes are called events. approach.
For Example (ii) Classical approach
(i) Participation of player in the game to win a game, is (iii) Axiomatic approach
a trial but winning or losing is an event.
(i) Experimental Probability : Let there be n trials
(ii) Tossing of a fair coin is a trial and turning up head of an experiment and A be an event associated to
or tail are events. it such that A happens in m-trials. Then the
(iii) Throwing of a dice is a trial and occurrence of empirical probability of happening of event A is
number 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 are events. denoted by P(A) and is given by
(iv) Drawing a card from a pack of playing cards is a m
P(A) = i.e.,
trial and getting an ace or a queen is an event. n
Favourable Events : Number of trials in which the event happens
P(A) =
Those outcomes of a trial in which a given event Total number of trails
may happen, are called favourable cases for that
event.
Clearly, 0 m n. Therefore, Find the probability of occurrence of each of
these event.
m
0 1 0 P(A) 1 Sol. It is given that the coin is tossed 500 times.
n
Thus, the probability of happening of an event Total number of trials = 500
always lies between 0 and 1. If P(A) = 1, then A is Let us denote the event of getting a head and of
called a certain event and A is known as an getting a tail by A and B respectively. Then,
impossible event, If P(A) = 0.
Number of trials in which the event
Further, if A denotes negative of A i.e.
A happens = 240.
event that A doesn’t happen, then for
above cases m, n ; we shall have and, Number of trials in which the event
nm m B happens = 260.
P (A ) = 1 = 1– P (A)
n n Number of trials in which the event A happens
P(A) =
P (A) + P ( A ) = 1 Total number of trials
(ii) Four suits : Heart () , Diamond (), Number of trials in which the event B happens
P(B) =
Total number of trials
Spade (), Club () - 13 cards each
(iii) Court Cards : 12 (4 Kings, 4 queens, 4 jacks) 260
= = 0.52
500
(iv) Honour Cards:16 (4 aces, 4 kings, 4 queens,
4 jacks) Note : We note that P(A) + P(B) = 0.48 + 0.52.
Therefore, A and B are the only two possible
TYPES OF EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY outcomes of trials.
Ex.2 A die is thrown 1000 times with the following
1. Deterministic : Deterministic experiments frequency for the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
are those experiments which when repeted as given below :
under identical conditions produce the same
result or outcome. For example, if we mark Outcome : 1 2 3 4 5 6
head (H) on both sides of a coin and it is Frequency: 179 150 157 149 175 190
tossed, then we always get the same outcome
assuming that it does not stand vertically. Find the probability of happening of each
outcome. [NCERT]
2. Random or probabilistic : If an experiment,
Sol. Let Ai denote the event of getting the outcome
when repeated under identical conditions, do
not produce the same outcome every time but i, where i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Then,
the outcome in a trial is one of the several P(Ei) = Probability of getting outcome 1
possible outcomes, then it is known as a
random or probabilistic experiment. For Frequency of 1
=
example, in the tossing of a coin one is not Total number of times the die is thrown
sure if a head (H) or tail (T) will be obtained,
so it is a random experiment. Similarly, 179
= = 0.179
rolling an unbiased die is an example of a 1000
random experiment. P(E2) = Probability of getting outcome 2
EXAMPLES Frequency of 2
=
Ex.1 A coin is tossed 500 times with the following Total number of times the die is thrown
frequencies of two outcomes :
150
Head : 240 times, tail : 260 times = = 0.15
1000
Similarly, we have, Probability that a student gets less than
3
157 65 % marks = = 0.6.
P(E3) = = 0.157, 5
1000
Ex.4 On one page of a telephone directory, there
149
P(E4) = were 200 telephone numbers. The frequency
1000 distribution of their unit place digit (for
= 0.149, P(E5) example, in the number 25828573, the unit
place digit is 3) is given in the table below :
175
= Digit : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1000
Frequency: 22 26 22 22 20 10 14 28 16 20
= 0.175
A number is chosen at random, find the
190 probability that the digit at its unit’s place
and, P(E6) =
1000 is :
= 0.19 (i) 6
(ii) a non-zero multiple of 3
Ex.3 The percentage of marks obtained by a student (iii) a non-zero even number
in the monthly unit tests are given below : (iv) an odd number.
Unit test : I II III IV V Sol. We have,
Percentage of 58 64 76 62 85 Total number of selected telephone numbers = 200
marks obtained
(i) It is given that the digit 6 occurs 14 times at
Find the probability that the student gets : unit’s place.
Probability that the digit at unit’s place
(i) a first class i.e. at least 60 % marks 14
is 6 =
200
(ii) marks between 70 % and 80 %
(iii) a distinction i.e. 75 % or above = 0.07
Sol. Total number of unit tests held = 5 Number of telephone number in which unit’s
digit is either 3 or 6 or 9 = 22 + 14 + 20 = 56.
(i) Number of unit test in which the student gets a
first class i.e. at least 60 % marks = 4. Probability of getting a telephone number
having a multiple of 3 at unit’s place
Probability that the student gets a first class 56
= = 0.28
4 200
= = 0.8
5 (iii) Number of telephone number having an even
(ii) Number of tests in which the student gets number (2 or 4 or 6 or 8) at unit’s place
between 70 % and 80 % = 1. = 22 + 20 + 14 + 16 = 72
Probability that a student gets marks Probability of getting a telephone number
1 having an even number at units place
between 70 % and 80 % = = 0.2.
5 72
=
(iii) Number of tests in which the student gets 200
2 = 0.36
distinction = = 0.4
5 (iv) Number of telephone number having an odd
(iv) Number of tests in which the student gets less digit (1 or 3 or 5 or 7 or 9) at units’ place
than 65 % marks = 3
= 26 + 22 + 10 + 28 + 20 = 106 Probability that a tyre does not need be
0
Probability of getting a telephone number replaced = =0
having an odd numbr at unit’s place 1000
106 (v) Since all the tyres we have considered to be
=
200 replaced, so
= 0.53 Probability that a tyre needs to be replaced
1000
Ex.5 A tyre manufacturing company kept a record of = =1
the distance covered before a tyre to be 1000
replaced. Following table shows the resuts of Ex.6 Fifty seeds were selected at random from each
1000 cases. of 5 bags of seeds, and were kept under
Distance in Less than 400 to 900 to More than standardised conditions favourable to
km : 400 900 1400 1400 germination. After 20 days the number of seeds
Number of which had germinated in each collection were
210 325 385 80 counted and recorded as follows :
tyres :
If you buy a tyre of this company, what is the Bag : 1 2 3 4 5
probability that : Number of seeds
40 48 42 39 41
germinated :
(i) it will need to be replaced before it has covered
400 km ? What is the probability germinated of :
(ii) it will last more that 900 km ? (i) more than 40 seeds is a bag ?
(iii) it will need to be replaced after it has covered (ii) 49 seeds in a bag ?
somewhere between 400 km and 1400 km ? (iii) more than 35 seeds in a bag ?
(iv) it will not need to be replaced at all ? (iv) at least 40 seeds in a bag ?
(v) it will need to be replaced ? (v) at most 40 seed in a bag ?
Sol. Total number of bags = 5
Sol. We have, (i) Number of bags in which more than 40 seeds
(i) The number of trials = 1000 germinated out of 50 seeds = 3.
Probability that a tyre will need to be replaced Probability of germinated of more than
before it has covered 3
40 seeds in a bag = .
210 5
400 km = = 0.21
1000 (ii) Number of bags in which 49 seeds germinated = 0.
(ii) The number of tyres that last more than 0
900 km = 385 + 80 = 465 Probability of germination of 49 seeds = =0
5
Probability that a tyre will last more than
(iii) Number of bags in which more than 35 seeds
465 germinated = 5.
900 km = = 0.465
1000
Probability of germination of more than
(iii) The number of tyres which require replacement 5
after covering distance between 400 km and 35 seeds = = 1.
5
1400 km = 325 + 385 = 710.
(iv) Numbr of bags in which at least 40 seeds
Probability that a tyre require replacement germinated = 4
710
400 km and 1400 km = = 0.71 Probability of germination of at least
1000
4
(iv) The number of tyres that do not need to be 40 seeds =
5
replaced at all = 0
(v) Number of bags in which at most 40 seeds Ex.8 An insurance company selected 2000 drivers at
germinated = 2. random in a particular city to find a relationship
between age and accidents. The data obtained
Probability of germination of at most 40
are given in the following table:
2
seeds = Age of drivers Accidents in one year
5
(in years) 0 1 2 3 Over 3
Ex.7 The distance (in km) of 40 female engineers 18-29 440 160 110 61 35
from their residence to their place of work were 30-50 505 125 60 22 18
found as follows - Above 50 360 45 35 15 9
5 3 10 20 25 11 13 7 12 31 Find the probabilities of the following events
19 10 12 17 18 11 32 17 16 2 for a driver chosen at random form the life city:
7 9 7 8 3 5 12 15 18 3
(i) being 18-29 years of age and having exactly 3
12 14 2 9 6 15 15 7 6 2 accidents in one year.
Find the probability that an engineer lives : (ii) being 30-50 years of age and having one or
(i) less than 7 km from her place of work ? more accidents in a year.
(ii) at least 7 km from her place of work ? (iii) having no accidents in one year.
1
Sol. Total number of drivers = 2000
(iii) within km from her place of work ?
2 (i) The number of drivers who are 18-29 years old
and have exactly 3 accidents in one year is 61.
(iv) at most 15 km from her place of work ?
Probability of a driver being 18-29 years of age
Sol. Total number of female engineers = 40
61
(i) Number of female engineers living at a distance and has exactly 3 accidents = = 0.0305
2000
less than 7 km from their place of work = 10.
(ii) The number of drivers 30-50 years of age
Probability that a female engineer lives at a and having one or more accidents in one year
distance less than 7 km from her place of work = 125 + 60 + 22 + 18 = 225.
10 1
= = = 0.25 Probability of a driver being 30-50 years of
40 4
age and having one or more accidents
(ii) Number of female engineers living at least
7 km away from her place of work = 30 225
= = 0.1125
2000
Probability that a female engineer lives at
least 7 km away from her place of work (iii) The number of drivers having no accidents in
30 one year
= = 0.75
40 = 440 + 505 + 360 = 1305
(iii) Since there is no engineer living at a distance probability of a driver having no accident in
1 1305
less than km from her place of work. one year = = 0.653
2 2000
1 Ex.9 Find the probability that a number selected at
Probability that an engineer within km
2 random from the numbers 1 to 25 is not a prime
0 number when each of the gievn number is
from her place of work = = 0.
40 equally likely to be selected.
(iv) Number of engineers living at a distance of Sol. Here S = {1, 2, 3, 4, ...., 25}
15 km or less away from her place of work = 30. Let E = event of getting a prime number
Probability that an engineer lives at most = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23}.
30 Then, n (E) = 9
15 km away from her place of work = = 0.75
40
n (E) 9 Ex.12 If the probability of winning a game is 0.3,
P(E) = = . what is the probability of lossing it ?
n (S) 25
Sol. Probability of winning a game = 0.3.
Required probability
Probability of losing it = q (say).
9 16
= 1 – P(E) = 1 = . 0.3 + q = 1 q = 1 – 0.3
25 25
Number of bags containing more than 5 kg of (i) The probability of getting two heads = P(HH)
flour = 7 Event of occurence of two heads 1
= =
Therefore, probability of bags containing more Total number of possible outcomes 4
then 5 kg of flour
(ii) The probability of getting at least one head
= Number of bags containing more than 5kg flour = P(HT or TH or HH)
Total number of bags
Event of occurence of at least one head 3
= =
=7 Total number of possible outcomes 4
11
(iii) The probability of getting no head = P(TT)
Ex.11 The record of a weather station shows that out
of the past 250 consecutive days, its weather Event of occurence of no head 1
= =
forecasts were correct 175 times. Total number of possible outcomes 4
(i) What is the probability that on a given day it Ex.14 On tossing three coins at a time, find -
was correct ?
(i) All possible outcomes.
(ii) What is the probability that it was not correct
on a given day ? (ii) events of occurence of 3 heads, 2 heads, 1 head
and 0 head.
Sol. The total number of days for which the record
is available = 250 (iii) probabilty of getting 3 heads, 2 heads, 1 head
and no head.
(i) P(correct forecast)
Sol. Let H denotes head and T denotes tail. On
Number of days when the forecast was correct tossing three coins at a time,
=
Total number of days for which the record is available
(i) All possible outcomes = {HHH, HHT, HTH,
175 THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}. These are the
= = 0.7 8 possible outcomes.
250
(ii) The number of days when the forecast was not (ii) An event of occurence of 3 heads
correct = 250 – 175 = 75. = (HHH) = 1
75 An event of occurence of 2 heads
P(not correct forecast) =
250
= {HHT, HTH, THH} = 3
= 0.3 An event of occurence of 1 head = {HTT, THT,
TTH} = 3
An event of occurence of 0 head = {TTT} = 1 x6
=
(iii) Now, probability of getting 3 heads = P (HHH) 12 6
8 2
=
20 5
IMPORTANT POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED
1. (i) 0.14, (ii) 0.56, (iii) 0.3, (iv) 0.86, (v) 0.7 2. (i) 0.8, (ii) 0.2, (iii) 0.4, (iv) 0.4
3. (i) 0.36, (ii) 0.12, (iii) 0.86, (iv) 0.48, (v) 0.52
4. (i) 0.1406, (ii) 0.5426, (iii) 0.3166, (iv) 0.6833, (v) 0.3166