Forex Survival Guide

Forex Survival Guide

Copyright 2016 © Positive Traders, LLC.

Important Links

Website: positivetraders.us
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DropBox: bit.ly/PTdropbox
Candlestick Cheatsheet: bit.ly/candlestickcheatsheet
Lot Size Calculator: myfxbook.com/forexcalculators/positionsize
Economic Calendar: forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Forex Dictionary

Bearish Negative tone, or sell bias
Bullish Positive tone, or buy bias
Buy Limit Pending order to buy when price come down
Buy Stop Pending order to buy when price goes up
Bias In favor of trading in one direction very strongly. In
other words, onesidedness
Confluence Combining multiple techniques or ideas to form a
single bias or strategy for which direction to trade the market.
Consolidation A period of indecision in the market where the
trend isn’t identified as up or down
Conviction Having multiple clues or pieces of evidence to
add to your bias when entering a trade
Resistance Any level above current price
Sell Limit Pending order to sell once price goes up
Sell Stop Pending order to sell once price goes down
Support Any level below current price

BEGINNER

So, what the heck is Forex?

Great question! Forex isn’t a company or a brand, it’s slang for
Foreign Exchange. It’s the act of buying one currency and
selling the other. For example if you’re from Europe and you
travel to America, you could exchange 1 Euro for $1.11 US
dollars. That action of exchanging one currency for a
different currency is exactly what Forex is! Now as a Forex
trader we don’t travel from country to country exchanging
physical money, we do it all online through brokers who are
connected digitally to banks, so it’s something you can easily
do from a phone app or computer with an internet connection!

Unlike the stock market that has daily time restrictions to when
you can trade, the Forex markets are open 24/5 meaning even
at midnight you can trade making Forex appealing among
people who work 95 jobs and want to create a side income.

But why should I care?

Even better question! Did you know that according to the
National Institute on Retirement Security, “The average
working household has virtually no retirement savings.” and
that “The findings confirm that the American Dream of retiring
comfortably after a lifetime of work will be impossible for
many.” Did they just say what I think they said? A well
established institute is publicly admitting that an entire lifetime
of working won’t mean anything once you retire. Forex
provides an opportunity for people who instead of working for

their money, would rather have their money work for them. We
aren’t saying to quit your job tomorrow and that in 3 months
you’ll be a millionaire with Forex, but with hard work and lots
of practice and dedication, you could turn trading into a career
in a few years or just a way to create a side income for
vacations, new cars, medical emergencies, paying off debt, etc.
It’s estimated nearly 50% of the working population don’t even
have a dollar in savings so Forex helps you grow your wealth
slowly over time, then once you have some serious capital
saved up from Forex (50100K), you can start to make some
big moves and really capitalize like the big traders do.

With all this talk about vacations, new cars and paying off debt,
I’m sure you’re probably pretty excited to learn more about
how we make money trading Forex but before we jump into
things I want to be straightforward with everyone and give my
own personal ‘disclaimer’ to let everyone know that trading
might not be for everyone:

Like the sayings go, “It takes money to make money”, and “If
it was easy, everyone would do it”, and both are equally true
with Forex. Often times new traders come into Forex expecting
to make a million dollars in a couple months (I’ll admit I did too
in the beginning). Reality is, there’s only a fraction of people
that start forex with a small amount and turn it into a million
dollars in no time with no experience or knowledge. Just like
any investment opportunity, Forex should be treated and
respected like one. Mastering Forex doesn’t happen overnight,
or even over a week or a few weeks. It takes months,
sometimes even years of trial & error to truly understand and
master the markets. Forex takes time and patience to master
and I can’t stress enough how much Forex isn’t a “get rich
quick”, but a “get rich over time with the proper training”. As
long as you have the willingness to learn and the patience to
practice then you’ll have no problem mastering the markets.

How do you make money trading?

To put it simply, we make money off of the change in the
exchange rate. In the example earlier of 1 Euro for $1.11 US
dollars (EUR/USD), when you travel back to Europe the
exchange rate might have now changed to 1 Euro for $1.12 US
dollar. A common misconception is how can you make money
on the exchange rate changing if it’s so insignificant? In Forex,
that 1 cent difference can yield anywhere from a couple dollars
all the way up to millions of dollars in profits depending on the
size of your trade.

How do you know when the exchange rate
will go up or down?

This is exactly what your goal is to learn and master as a
trader. The 2 types of analysis that we use to determine the
direction of the market is technical & fundamental analysis.
Technical analysis is any visual analysis from marking up the
charts using trendlines, support & resistance, moving averages,
etc. Technical analysis bases its strategy off of the fact that
history repeats itself to determine specific levels on the chart
where price could potentially reverse at. Fundamental analysis
bases its strategy off of reports, news, and the overall
economic strength of a currency to determine the direction. I
personally rely on technical analysis more than fundamental,
but I still am very involved and uptodate with the economics
of the currencies that I trade because as a professional trader I
don’t just have 1 strategy; Sometimes the markets are more
influenced by the technicals than fundamentals, other times
viseaversa.


Where do I start?

STEP 1: CREATE A DEMO ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are a
free way to learn how to trade and connect to the real
exchange markets without having to deposit real money.
Essentially they’re fake trading accounts that allow you to
practice with however much you want and it gives you a
chance to see how the markets are traded in realtime without
losing real money. We recommend trading a demo account for
at least a couple months or at least until you are consistently
profitable before opening a live account. Our recommended
broker is FXChoice, and you can setup a free account with
them by clicking here: (www.fxchoice.com)

STEP 2: RISK MANAGEMENT. First and foremost, before you
even place your first trade you have to set goals and decide
what you want out of Forex. You also have to decide how much
you’re willing to lose. This is called your risk appetite and you
should only risk what you’re willing to lose. The more emotional
you are about the money (meaning the more you need it), then
more likely you are to make irrational decisions based on
emotions. As a trader you have to learn to control your
emotions, don’t let your emotions control you. My
recommendation is as a new trader don’t aim for a growth goal
right from the start, focus on maintaining a consistent positive
balance for a few months while risking no more than 15% of
your account per trade and learning how to enter & exit trades.
Once you’ve had a couple consistent months of starting with an
equal or higher balance from the month before, then you can
aim for a percentage of growth of something like 510% per
month. If lowrisk compounding is new to you (for example if
you took $1000 and grew it 10% monthovermonth you’d
have over 300K at end of 5 years), play with the Forex
compounding calculator to see how powerful compounding is.
(Important Links at the top)

STEP 3: BEGIN THE LEARNING PROCESS. There’s a lot of
ways to go about profiting in the markets, so I won’t talk bad
about other strategies or things that don’t work for me, but
personally, I trade based off of technical Price Action (PA). PA
is being able to cognitively analyze the live markets based on
what the charts look like and what formations they’re creating
on different timeframes and form a analysis and entry & exit
points based off those formations. PA is all about keeping the
analysis simple, yet effective by applying the known fact that
history repeats itself. Price Action strafes away from a
cluttered chart filled with indicators and instead uses simple
lines combined with candlestick formations to be able to create
a bias of which direction price is most likely to move. There’s a
lot that goes into learning Price Action and there’s not a “one
size fits all” way to teach it so the best way is to get handson
with a demo account and get exposure while learning.

We recommend starting with Babypips™
(www.babypips.com/school) and completing their free
educational course. Babypips™ won’t teach you everything, but
we promise that if you complete their entire course and take
notes, that you’ll understand the basics of Forex and then you’ll
just need to apply what you learn and formulate a strategy.

Indicators vs. Price Action


After completing Babypips™, there are a few books that we
recommend reading that’ll teach you a couple strategies based
on Price Action. It’s really important to learn the basics in
Babypips™ before reading these books though or you might get
lost. These books will give you an in depth look on how & why
the markets move the way they do and will take your trading
to the next level. You can find all these books in PDF format in
our ‘Free Books’ folder inside DropBox. (Important Links at the
top)

These are just handful of resources to get you started, there’s
tons of other free ebooks you can find right off Google, and
hundreds of hours of free YouTube videos that teach Price
Action.

STEP 4: KEEP TRACK OF YOUR PROGRESS. Over time and
being exposed to Forex you’ll start to be able to see what
works and what doesn’t work when it comes to your trading
strategy. Instead of keeping all these memories and ideas in
your head, write them down. Keeping a trading journal is key
and necessary to success in Forex. Have a section specifically
for things that work really well. Like maybe there’s a formation
you notice that always seems to do the same thing. Until you
have a concrete strategy, every time you have a losing trade
you should evaluate what made it a losing trade and what you
could do to avoid the same type of loss in the future. Most
losses stem not from the analysis, but from risking too much
on a trade.

STEP 5: APPLY THE KNOWLEDGE. Take what you learn from
Babypips and the different materials that you read and my
signals and tips, and start to apply the knowledge on your
demo account. The best practice is on a demo account
identifying trends and formations, then trading them and
keeping a journal of what works the best then building a

strategy. IT’S OKAY TO FAIL. That’s the nice part about a demo
account is that you aren’t losing real money! One of the biggest
mistakes I see with new traders is that they see the excitement
of Forex, deposit a good amount of money thinking they can
turn it into a fortune overnight and then end up losing all of it
from a lack of risk management and then moving on to
something else, when if they would have taken the time to
practice on a demo account before jumping in head first, they
would’ve been able to make some money in the long run. The
moral is, PRACTICE. Statistics show that it takes 10,000 hours
of practice to master something so the more exposure you
have to the markets, the better.

STEP 6: CONSTANT EDUCATION. It’s good to be happy
when you have winning trades, and it’s good to have
confidence when you get success from applying something
you’ve learned, but be careful with the overconfidence that sets
in after winning a few trades early on. A huge key to success
with Forex is constant education and staying humble. The
market will always have a way of showing you who’s boss if
you try to abuse it’s money making power, so the best thing to
do is to keep your goals realistic and don’t stop educating
yourself just because you win a few trades.

STEP 7. EXPOSURE. Finding a group of likeminded
individuals will help you take your trading to the next level.
Having a group of trading friends that you can bounce ideas
and analysis off of can help you eliminate some of the mistakes
you might make on your own because everyone is able to
share their experiences and mistakes. Use caution when joining
trading groups and make sure they’re always looking out for
your best interest and not what’s in your wallet. Make sure the
people you look up to and follow in your Forex journey have a
proven reputation of being trusted and transparent. There are
lots of people out there that are just looking to make a quick

buck off people instead of actually help them. Always ask lots
of questions and do your homework on the people you follow to
make sure they’re reputable!

STEP 8. PRACTICE PATIENCE. Trading is a marathon not a
sprint. I can’t stress enough how powerful lowrisk
compounding is. Remember that consistency is key and you
don’t need to impress anybody and double your account in 1
week. Making 510% profit on your account month after month
pays off long term. Remember, you can’t go broke taking
profits and it’s consistent profits that add up!

Intermediate

Understanding why the markets move

Before you can start to create a strategy on how to trade you
have to understand what you’re trading. If you were to place a
buy order on the Euro vs. US Dollar commonly referred to as
EUR/USD, did you know that means you are buying Euros and
selling US dollars at the exact same time? Every time you
‘buy’ or ‘sell’ a currency pair, you’re actually doing both, the
‘buy’ or ‘sell’ only refers to the first currency. Meaning if I
bought USD/JPY (US dollar vs. Japanese Yen), then I’d be
buying US dollars and selling Japanese Yen. Don’t get too
overwhelmed with this concept, it may sound confusing but
once you’ve had some experience, understanding this will be
second nature.


Now as to actually why the markets move, it’s a combination
of traders worldwide using both technical and fundamental
analysis to decide when to buy & sell. When a pair like
EUR/USD moves up, it’s because people are buying the
Euro and selling the US dollar. Why would they do that?
Lot’s of things influence people’s decision to buy or sell a
currency but as I mentioned, it’s a combination of both
fundamental and technical analysis. Some traders might buy or
sell based on a trendline they see, or a level of support or
holding, or a cross in the moving averages (technical), other
traders might buy or sell based on a news report like interest
rates or an unemployment report or the result of the
Presidential elections (fundamental). The reason why the
markets are so unpredictable is because not everyone is
looking at the same thing so to some people a currency pair
might seem like a buy, while to others it seems like a sell. The
goal of a trader is to build enough conviction (evidence) to
decide which direction to trade a market while being able to
backup your trade with logical facts.

How do you read a currency pair?

Let’s use EUR/USD (Euro vs. US dollar) since it’s the most
commonly traded pair. To put it simply, whatever the first
currency is on any pair, that will always be 1. Meaning in this
example, EUR/USD means that 1Euro=?USD. That means
USD/JPY is 1USD=?JPY, and that means GBP/USD is
1GBP=?USD. The ‘?’ is always going to be the current
exchange rate, or number, that it gives you on your terminal
for the pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is 1.1148,
meaning now know 1 Euro = 1.1148 USD. The means if you
has 1 Euro, you could exchange it for $1.11 (1 US dollar and
11 cents) Knowing this, we can understand that the US dollar is

weaker than the Euro, because it costs more than 1 US dollar
to equal 1 Euro.
Why use a stop loss?

Whenever you enter a trade, the first thing shouldn’t be how
much money you can make, it should be how much you can
lose. Never risk what you aren’t willing to lose because
winning isn’t guaranteed in Forex. Stop losses help you
manage your risk by automatically closing out a losing trade if
it goes too far into drawdown. Stop losses are nice so if you
aren’t watching the charts when the market does something
unexpected, it’ll protect your investment. A common mistake of
rookie traders is letting losses run, so a stop loss helps make
sure that losses get cut short.

How do I choose a good broker?

Choosing the right broker shouldn’t be overlooked. Your broker
is essentially your bank where you store your money so making
sure you choose a broker you can trust is paramount. Make
sure they are NDD (nondealing desk) and ECN. Always check
a broker’s reviews with Forex Peace Army
(www.forexpeacearmy.com). I use FxChoice because they are
a regulated broker and the reviews speak for themselves.

How’s trading different than gambling?

With the proper practice and training you can actually increase
your odds of making winning trades, unlike gambling where no
matter what you do the odds are always still in favor of the
house. As a professional trader, we don’t trade just any setup
and hope it goes in our direction, we wait for well positioned
setups that lower our risk of a negative trade and use expert

analysis to create a edge to have more than a 50% chance of
having a winning trade. Traders aren’t gamblers, they’re smart
risk takers.

What’s a good goal?

Well goals aren’t ‘one size fits all’. Everyone wants to be rich,
but no ones wants to set realistic goals to do what it takes to
be rich. A good goal isn’t to turn $500 into $100,000 in 2
months. A good goal might be to make an extra $1000 each
month after 6 months of learning Forex, or another good goal
is 25% consistent growth per month. Once you’re hitting your
goal consistently, then raise the bar.

Trend is your friend

Cliche, but true. Trading against the trend will doom you for
almost certain failure, so as described in the advanced section,
always trade with the trend. This is a simple way to look at
the chart and instantly know which direction to look for a trade.
If you’re doing analysis on the H1 timeframe chart, plan to
trade with the trend that price is moving on the H1. If you’re
doing analysis on the D1 timeframe chart, plan your trade
according to the trend on the D1.

Fakeouts

Fakeouts happen when a candle breaks through an area where
your technical analysis expected price to bounce off (trendline
or support or resistance zone/line). Just because price breaks
through an important zone/line, doesn’t mean it will keep
going, this is when a fakeout occurs. Fakeouts are also often
times called “stop hunts’’ because they aren’t the true direction
of price and it can be a broker’s attempt at hitting as many

stop losses as possible. My rule of thumb is if you see a
potential fakeout, move onto another pair and stand aside. The
risk of trying to guess if it’s a fakeout or a breakout isn’t worth
the emotional stress. Wait for the next few candles to close to
determine whether it’s a fakeout or a breakout.

Example of a fakeout

Breakouts

The opposite of a fakeout, these are identified once price has
confirmed to have broken out of a defined area or zone
(usually a zone of support and resistance). The confirmation of
a breakout is when price exits the defined area or zone and
doesn’t come back into that area or zone.

Example of a breakout

Overtrading

Yes, trading is fun, but there is such a thing as overtrading. If
you’ve ever had a day where you made some nice profits,
thought about calling it quits, but didn’t and ended up back
where you started then you know how heart wrenching
overtrading can be. Or if you’ve ever had a day where you lost
trade, then doubled up and lost, then doubled up again and
lost again, you too have experienced overtrading. Month over
month, year over year consistency is what Forex is about and
overtrading can put you in circles if you don’t know how to call
it quit and lock in your profits. Set a realistic daily/weekly $
amount goal that you’ll stop at no matter what if you reach
that goal. Also don’t double up when you lose a trade. Just like
the guy that goes broke from the casino because he couldn’t
control his emotions and doubled up after each losing hand,
you don’t want to end up with a blown account because you
lost a few trades and wanted to make it all back on 1 trade,
this is a form of overtrading called revenge trading.

Chasing trades

If there were only 10 topics I could speak on, without a doubt
this would be one of them. As a new trader it’s 100%
acceptable to feel sad, or left out when you see everyone

profiting on a trade you missed, that’s just nature human
emotions. What it’s not acceptable to do is enter the trade out
of greed long after the ideal entry area just to make a few
bucks. If you miss a trade, face the facts that it’s only 1 trade
and there’ll always be another opportunity. Chasing trades can
result in some serious losses, since they are based 100% on
emotions.

ADVANCED

Developing your strategy

DECIDE WHAT KIND OF TRADER YOU ARE: Before you can
even begin to formulate a strategy you’ll have to decide what
type of trader you are. Are you a swing trader or a day trader?
Are you more of a set & forget kind of person that doesn’t have
a lot of time to dedicate, or are you someone that would rather
have a trade opened and closed on the same and you have
more time to monitor it? Either trading style can make you a
fortune over time, and what you’re learning can be applied to
either styles.

IDENTIFY THE TREND: Many people come to me saying they
struggle to identify the trend .This method can be applied to all
timeframes and I use this exact method of finding the trend to
help decide which direction I’ll take a trade, because the trend
is your friend.

Uptrend Downtrend

You can see that both trends are easily identified by
acknowledging the series of Highs & Lows. Whenever you see
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) you should be looking
to take a buy position and whenever you see Lower Highs (LH)
and Lower Lows (LL) you would be looking to take a sell
position.

PLOT TRENDLINES/SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Since
everyone has a different way of looking at the charts, I can’t
tell you the exact right or wrong way to draw a
trendline/support & resistance line, but if you follow these
general rules it’ll be a step in the right direction. First, always
make sure your line touches price at least 2 times when
drawing them like you see in the example below. The more
times the line touches the end of a candlestick, the stronger
that line becomes. Having a firm understanding of support &
resistance will greatly improve any strategy. The whole
technique behind support & resistance is based upon the fact
that history tends to repeat itself, meaning if price was rejected
around a certain level in the past multiple times, then there’s
probably a good chance of it happening again and if it breaks
that line then most likely it’ll continue in the direction of the
break. All of this is a generality and not guaranteed to happen
everytime, just want tends to happen more than 50% of the
time.

Examples of Support & Resistance

In this example above, you can see how price stayed above the
black support line, then once price broke below it, it acted as
resistance once price went to retest the former support. You
would call this “support that is now acting as resistance”.

You can see above how powerful combining trendlines with
horizontal support and resistance can be. Waiting for key
levels of support to be broken then retested (pullback) is
the key to trading a downtrend.

IDENTIFY FORMATIONS: If you’re this far, then you’ve
already seen this cheat sheet in Babypips™. When I was a new
trader I printed this out and studied it until I had it memorized,
now I know these formations like the back of my hand. The

formations found on this cheat sheet are a money tree and if
you apply them properly you’ll make a tremendous amount of
money. Candlestick formations help build the foundation to
Price Action trading and these formations combined with
horizontal support and resistance and trendlines make up over
75% of my successful strategy. Some of the most profitable
formations for me has been the shooting star, the hammer,
the bearish engulfing and the bullish engulfing. (Important
Links at the top)

PIVOT POINTS: Knowing where the Pivot Points are on your
chart will help you identify key levels of support & resistance,
and you’ll notice these levels sometimes coincide with
horizontal support & resistance so they help to add conviction
to trades at those levels. There are different types of pivot
points which you can try out yourself but I personally use the
standard plain ole’ Daily Pivot Points. A copy of these and
instructions on how to install them can be found in our
DropBox. (Important Links at the top). If you’re interested in
learning how to figure out how the Daily Pivot Points are
calculated, Babypips™ has a nice chapter on it.

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA): I strongly recommend
keeping both the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA)
on your chart. I use the SMA’s to help identify the trend and I
use them as areas that I expect to see support & resistance.
Sometime’s I’ll use SMA’s as a level of take profit or a stop
loss, it just depends on where they’re at in relationship the
trade I’m in. Generally speaking, if current price is below the
SMA’s then we bearish (sell mode), and the opposite is true so
if price is above the SMA’s then we are bullish (buy mode).
That statement generally applies to the H1/M30 timeframe,
however with practice you’ll see it can be used on almost all
the timeframes when used properly! In other words, the SMA’s

are strong references that help determine if the trend is bullish
or bearish and to anticipate likely where the price is going.

PLACING A TRADE: According to what kind of trade you are
opening (scalp, day trade, swing), you need to adjust the lot
size based on your stop loss. Not all trades should be taken
with the same lot size. Scalps will generally be taken with a
slightly higher lot size than normal, while day trades should be
taken with your normal lot size. Swing trades should be taken
with a smaller lot size, because you’ll generally have a larger
stop loss.

TRAILING STOP LOSSES: Trailing stops are a handy tool
accessible to you if you use MetaTrader 4 on your computer,
unfortunately it’s not something you can access on MT4 mobile.
A trailing stop loss is really similar to a normal stop loss, except
it can be set so that the further the trade moves in your favor,
the further your stop will move. For example, you can set a
trailing stop loss so that every 2 pips of profit price goes, it’ll
lock in those 2 pips so if price unexpectedly moves against you,
it closes your trade automatically with that extra every 2 pips
of profit. Trailing stops only apply to profitable trades, you
can’t use a trailing stop as a normal stop loss, they are only
activated once you go into profit. This is a highly
customizable tool and a necessity if you scalp or day trade, I
strongly recommend getting good with this tool on a demo
account to maximize your profits.

TRADINGVIEW™ & ALERTS: This is by far one of the most
useful and easy to set up resources that I’ve come across.
TradingView™ offers SMS price alerts (2 at once anytime for
free). You simply rightclick anywhere on a chart and pick ‘set
alert’ and they’ll text you when price touches that level. It’s
completely customizable too so if you’d rather get an email
instead of a text, you can do that! The website

www.tradingview.com hosts Forex and other financial market
charts for free with similar tools to MetaTrader 4 which I often
tend to use over MT4. The functionality of TradingView™
doesn’t even compare to MT4 however you can’t use pivot
points or even execute trades on it unless you use one of their
sponsored brokers so I use a combination of the two. MT4 feels
very 90’s to me, while TradingView™ feels very modern and
updated, and it’s my goto choice to do my analysis. The charts
are easier to handle and it’s a lot easier on the eyes, not to
mention I can access it from any computer since it’s internet
based.

TRADERS PSYCHOLOGY

Breaking down the psychology of trading, the only thing that
discourages people and gives people the feeling of wanting to
quit is when they lose real money and us as human beings tend
to act on our emotions and just like any type of investing,
making investment decisions based on emotions instead of
logic is a recipe for disaster. As a professional trader you must
train yourself to remove your emotions from a trade, and this
can only be done by achieving proper risk management. Proper
risk management is being able to open a trade and not worry,
and it’s about keeping your risks low and protecting your
capital.

As this guide nears a conclusion I’d like to say thank you for all
the support from everyone in Positive Traders, especially Cal
and Louis for helping build and maintain such a wonderful
team, without you guys I never would have been able to do
things like make this guide for everyone.


I hope after reading this you all still continue your education,
this is by no means meant to teach you every single thing, but
rather serve as a hub of the most important things to practice
and remember.

If you found value out of this guide, feel free to share it with
other traders but please give Positive Traders credit and as
always share the love and feedback on our Facebook Group:
facebook.com/groups/positivetraders

All of the information provided here should be used as general market commentary and
not investment advice.
Photos Courtesy of Babypips™ and Google Images™

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