GEOPHYSICALRESEARCHLETTERS,VOL. 24, NO.

23, PAGES3057-3060,DECEMBER 1, 1997

E1 Nifio and climate change

Kevin E. Trenberth and Timothy J. Hoar
National Center for AtmosphericResearch,Boulder, Colorado

Abstract. A comprehensive
statisticalanalysisof how an of runs of one sign. An advantageof their approachis that
index of the Southern Oscillationchangedfrom 1882 to 1995 they can addressdifferentbehaviorfor positiveversusnegative
wasgivenby Trenberthand Hoar [1996],with a focuson the anomaliesin Darwinpressure(El NifioversusLa Nifia events)
unusual nature of the 1990-1995 E1 Nifio-Southern Oscilla- whichare not symmetricalabout the average[seeTrenberth,
tion (ENSO) warm eventin the contextof an observedtrend 1997]. Thesepapersare discussed and the appropriateness
for more E1 Nifio and fewer La Nifia events after the late of the conclusions reviewed. Further we use a new statistical
1970s. The conclusionsof that study have been challenged test, which directly addressesthe main concern of Harrison
by two studies which deal with only the part of our results and Larkin [1997]of how to estimatethe numberof degrees
pertaining to the length of runs of anomaliesof one sign in of freedom, to assesshow unusual recent behavior has been.
the SouthernOscillationIndex. They thereforeneglectthe We alsobriefly considermore recentevidencewhichis in sup-
essenceof Trenberth and Hoar, whichfocussedon the magni- port of the original conclusions,and discussthe potential for
tude of anomaliesfor certain periods and showedthat anoma- paleodata to help to resolvethe issues.
lies during both the post-1976 and 1990-mid-1995 periods
were highly unlikely giventhe previousrecord. With updated
data through mid 1997, we have performed additional tests Southern Oscillation Index analysis
usinga regressionmodel with autoregressive-moving average
(ARMA) errorsthat simultaneously
estimatesthe appropriate In TH we observedthat aspectsof the recentwarmingof the
tropical Pacific from 1990 to mid 1995 were unprecedentedin
ARMA modelto fit the data and assesses
the statisticalsig-
nificanceof how unusualthe two periods of interest are. The the observationalrecord of the previous113 years. Moreover,
mean SO1 for the post-1976 period is statistically different we noted that this behaviorwasin the context of the tendency
for more E1 Nifio and fewer La Nifia events since the late 1970s.
from the overall mean at • 0.05% and so is the 1990-mid-
1995 period. The recent evolution of ENSO, with a major We describedthe difficulty in finding reliable homogeneous
new E1 Nifio event underway in 1997, reinforcesthe evidence measurementsor indices of what has happened in ENSO and
concluded that the best such continuous record was the sea
that the tendency for more E1 Nifio and fewer La Nifia events
level pressuresfrom Darwin, which is near one center of the
sincethe late 1970sis highly unusualand'very unlikely to be
accountedfor solely by natural variability. Southern Oscillation, and thus can be used as a Southern
Oscillation index. We then carried out several statistical tests
to assess the likelihood that both the trends after the late
1970s and the behavior from 1990 to mid 1995 was consistent
Introduction with the earlier record and thus could be consideredpart of
a natural decadal variation. We used a null hypothesisof
A detailedstatistical analysisof how an index of the South-
no change relative to the first hundred years of record from
ern Oscillation(SOI) (asrepresented
by sealevelpressures
at 1882 to 1981. The tests reinforced one another to indicate
Darwin, Australia) changedfrom 1882to 1995was givenby that both the recent trend for more warm ENSO events and
Trenberthand Hoar [1996]. The focusof the studywashow
fewer cold events since 1976, and the prolonged1990-1995
unusualthe 1990-1995E1 Nifio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO) warm event are unexpected, given the previous record, with
warm event was in the context of the warming trend in the
an overall probability of occurrenceabout oncein 2000 years
tropical Pacific after about 1976 when there have been more
E1 Nifio and fewer La Nifia events.
for both. We concluded,therefore, that changesin climate
were probably influencingENSO behavior.
Two papers have since commented on the Trenberth and
One aspectof the confusionoverthe 1990-1995warm ENSO
Hoar [1996](henceforthTH) paper. Harrisonand Larkin phasehas been the different characterof the sequencesin dif-
[1997]do not considerthe sizeof the anomaliesof the SOI
ferent parts of the tropical Pacific. Sea surfacetemperature
for specificperiods, which was the main basisof TH, and in-
(SST) anomaliesdid wax and wanein the traditional E1Nifio
steadwith somequestionable assumptions examinethe length region along the coast of South America but stayed continu-
of runs of one signin the time series,whichwas a minor part
ously above averagein the central equatorial Pacific. An ob-
of TH. Rajagopalanet al. [1997](henceforthRLC) has also jective definition of E1 Nifio that matches the E1 Nifio events
testedthe length of runsin the Darwin pressuresto alternative
identifiedhistoricallyis for SSTsin the Nifio 3.4 region(120ø-
statistical models and noted the sensitivity of results for runs
170øW 5øN-5øS)to exceed0.4øC for 6 monthsor more Tren-
of a givenlength to the statisticalmodelfitted. However,un-
berth [1997]. Relative to the 1950-79mean, this definition
like TH, they did not demonstratethe fit or appropriateness
identifiesthree E1 Nifiosfrom 1990to 1995 (seeFig. l) from
of their modelsand, onceagain, considered
only the length
March 1991 to July 1992, February to September1993, and
Copyright1997 by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion. June 1994 to March 1995. However, these peak phasesare
clearly linked, as conditionsdo not return to averagein be-
Papernumber97GL03092. tween. It therefore remains ambiguousas to whether these
0094-8534/97/97 GL-03092505.00 should be regarded as one long E1 Nifio or three eventsin
3057
3058 TRENBERTH AND HOAR: EL NIfO AND CLIMATE CHANGE

3.0
Nifo 5.4 SST Indices
2.5

2.0

?
-•'
o
1.5
1.0 t
E
o 0.5
< 0.0
u• -0.5

-1.0

-1.5
-2.0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Yeor

Figure 1. Time seriesplots of the Nifio 3.4 SST indicesas five month running meansusing data from NOAA
and relative to a base period climatology from 1950-79. Values exceedingthreshold + 0.4øC for Nifio 3.4 are
stippled to indicate ENSO events.

closesuccession,and abovewe referredto it as a warm phase variables (it depends onthecovariances aswell)(R. Jonesper-
of ENSO. sonalcommunication).The Harrison-Larkinassumptionsin
One test used by TH was to note that the 22 seasonsfrom computingconfidence limits on To are wrong,therefore,and
December-January-February (DJF) 1989-90to March-April- the valuesthey use are not correct. Moreoverthe way they
May (MAM) 1995had an SOI continuallybelowzero (Dar- useTo is questionablebecauseit is strictly the time required
win pressureanomaliespositive), and that this was an un- to gain an extra degreeof freedomfor estimatingthe standard
precedentedrun of the SO1 of one sign since1882, when the errorof the mean[Trenberth, 1984b].Otherusesof To may
record began. Statistical testing which fitted an autoregres- not be valid, and an example is Harrison and Larkin's usein a
sivemovingaverage(ARMA) modelof order(3,1) to the Dar- Bootstrap/MonteCarlotestto findthe probabilityof flipping
a weightedcoin to test for runs in a series. In addition, as
win record showedthe 22 seasonrun of one sign was a very
by HarrisonandLarkin[1997] this test fails to take into account the quasi-periodicity in the
rareevent.This waschallenged
who note that monthlyDarwin pressuresdid go below normal Southern Oscillation, it cannot be consideredrelevant.
during this period. Becausea run of one sign is very depen- The secondpaper commentingon TH by RLC alsotested
dent on noise that might, for a short time, causethe run to the the length of runs to alternative statistical modelsand
be broken, not much weight was placed on this test in TH. noted the sensitivity of results for runs of a given length to
TH recognizedthe noisein monthly data and noted that time the statistical model fitted. Our awarenessof this point was
averaging was necessaryand appropriate to provide a better the reasonwhy the run length results were not emphasized
indicationof SO behavior[Trenberth,1984a]. An appropri- (and not includedin our conclusions
or abstract).RLC use
ately filtered SOI is shown in Fig. 2, where the baselineis lower order modelswhich are not shownto be goodfits to the
the 1882-1981 mean. A low passspline filter is also applied to data or its power spectra, as was done for the ARMA model
the SOI and it revealsmore clearlythe decadaltimescalesand fitted by TH. Moreover the RLC modelsare fitted to a trans-
how the period after about 1976 has been exceptionally low. formed Darwin pressure anomaly time series in which posi-
Note, in particular, that .the period after 1976 has featured 5 tive anomalies(PA) are replacedby i and negativeanomalies
E1 Nifio events(1976-77-78,1982-83,1986-87-88,1990-1995, (NA) by 0. Apparentlythis introducesextra spectralpower
1997-present)but only three La Nifia events(1984-85,1988- at interdecadal frequenciescomparedwith the original series.
89, 1995-96). Also, the 1982-83eventhasthe biggestmagni- RLC use a broad window of length 17.5 years (70 seasons)
tude on record and the 1990-95 event is the longeston record to fit a Markov Chain model and thus can only deal with
(or elseit countsas three events),whereasfor La Nifiasonly results to 1988, which does not fully cover the recent warm
the 1988-89eventwasstrong(Fig. 1). ENSO event. Markov Chain modelsof order I and 2 are used,
Harrisonand Larkin.[1997]go on to showthat with other whereasTH found the best fit model to be an autoregressive
assumptionsabout the persistencein the data, which imply a movingaverage(ARMA) modelof order (3,1), and that any
longertime betweeneffectivelyindependent values(To) than lower order model would seriously misrepresentthe low fre-
the observedvalueof 6 months[Trenberth,1984a],thenreturn quency behavior of the time series. It is not surprisingthen
periodsof long runs are indeedmuch reduced. This argument that the return periods of runs of anomaliesof one sign for
these low order models are shorter than estimated in TH.
hingeson computionof To whichinvolvesa weightedsumof
the laggedcorrelations[their Eq. (4)]. We note that the au- In discussingtheir results, RLC first state that "The rate
tocorrelations at various lags are not independent, and that of occurrence of PA at the turn of the century is similar to
the variance of a linear combination of correlated random vari- that in recenttimes." Yet the figure (their Fig. 3) showsa
ables cannot be calculated from the variances of the individual rate of 0.75 at the end of the series in 1988, compared with
 TRENBERTH AND HOAR: EL NIl•O AND CLIMATE CHANGE 3O59

2.5

2.0
_ Dorwin Southern Oscillotion Index
.

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0
-2.5
•••••••`•••••••••••••`••`•••••••••``••`••••``•`.`•••``•••``••`•••`•••••••••`•••`•••••••``••`•`•`•`••••`••••`•• I'"''''"

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1950 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Yeor

Figure 2. Time seriesof the monthly normalizedSouthernOscillationIndex (minusDarwin sealevel pressure

anomalies)smoothedwith the l 1-term filter and with a low passsmoothingsplinefilter that removesperiodsless
than 10 years. The base period is 1882 to 1981. A 1-2-1 filter is used on the end points and the last value is July
1997.

a mean of 0.5, and a valuewhichis muchhigherthan any of the energygetspartitionedat once.The process produces
othertime (previous peakof 0.65about1900).Afterfittinga random residualsand estimatesof the variousparametersof
nonhomogeneous first orderMarkov Chainmodelto the data, the modelalongwith standarderrorsof their fit. As in previ-
they find that the likelihoodof continuingpositiveanomalies ousresults,the modelusedis an ARMA(3,1). The coefficients
is highin recentyearsbut comparableto earlierin the century. areall statistically
significant
but differslightly(• 8%) from
However, they also find that the transition probability of a thosein TH as the entire seriesis now beingfitted. We in-
negative anomaly following a negative anomaly is the lowest cludeda "continuingintervention"variableto allow for step
in the entire record at the end of the series. This aspect functions in the model. The data used are Darwin seasonal
is down played in their discussionand conclusions,yet it is anomalies,where the last seasonof June-July-August1997
perhaps most pertinent to our conclusions. was approximated by the mean of the anomaliesfor June and
The main tests that TH used were not based on runs of oneJuly. Thus, beginning in 1882, 463 seasonswere used and
sign. Instead they were basedon the magnitude of anomalies 6 parameterswere fitted leaving 457 degreesof freedom. In
over (i) the 22 seasonsfrom DJF 1989-90to MAM 1995 for testing for a break point beginningMarch 1977, so that a
whichDarwin was+0.94 mb and (ii) the last 73 seasons from differentmean is permitted for the period from March 1977
MAM 1977 to MAM 1995 for which Darwin was +0.50 rob. A to July 1997,the resultis highlystatisticallysignificantwith
standardt test whichallowedfor persistence in the data gave t -- 3.61 at • 0.05% with a 2-tailed test and for which Dar-
return periodsof over 1000 yearsand indicated that, for both win is -t-0.49mb abovethe 100 year average. Similarly,for
intervals under consideration,the mean anomaliesof Darwin theextended
1990to 1995E1Nifio(DJF1989to MAM 1995)
pressureswere statistically different from zero at • 1% with periodt -- 3.79, whichis statisticallysignificantly
different
a two tailed test. To better incorporatethe quasi-periodicity from the mean of the rest of the series at • 0.02% with a
in the SOI, extensive tests were made of the distribution of 2-tailedtest. Theseresultsconfirmthe very unusualbehavior
magnitudesof anomaliesfor the specifiedperiodsusingthe of the recent SOI.
ARMA (3,1) model fitted to the first 100 years of Darwin Anotherapproachto determininghowunusualrecentENSO
record, and also with variants based on the previous95 or behaviorhas been is to try to put it in the context of much
105 years instead of 100. The conclusionswere robust and longerrecordsusingpaleoclimatedata, especiallyfrom cores
indicated about oncein 2000 year return periodsfor both the of coral in the tropical Pacific. Examplesincludethe anal-
post-1976 Darwin anomalies and those for the 1990-mid-1995 ysesfromGalapagos [Dunbaret al., 1994]and Tarawa[Cole
warm ENSO event. Theseresultsare untouchedby either of et al., 1993]. However,whileoxygenisotoperecordsfrom
papers which comment on TH. corals can provide excellent records of interannual variabil-
To further bolster theseresults, we have run someextra sta-ity, the decadaland lowerfrequencyvariabilityhas not been
tistical tests usingupdated data through July 1997. The test validated. For instance, the decadalvariability in the iso-
used simultaneouslyfits an ARMA model to the whole time topic record is larger and not coherentwith the instrumental
serieswhile allowing for indicator variablesof breakpoints. recordat Tarawa [Coleet al., 1993]. Moreover,it is known
The processis sometimescalleddynamicregression.Specifi- that low frequencies
can be contaminated by biologicaland
cally,weusedthe StatisticalAnalysisSystem(SAS)Economic growth effects in the coral and other non-climatic influences
Time Series(ETS) packagewith Autoregresssive Integrated on the record(Rob Dunbar,personalcommunication). The
MovingAverage(ARIMA) processing (SAS/ETSV6.11 Proc paleo-records of isotopicand chemicaltracershavegreatpo-
ARIMA) to fit a regression
modelwith ARMA errors. The tential, however,for clarifyingwhat the natural variabilityof
model parametersare estimatedusingall of the data, so all ENSO hasbeenoverseveralcenturies. The reproduciblesig-
3060 TRENBERTH AND HOAR: EL NIfO AND CLIMATE CHANGE

nalsfrommultiplecoresof adjacentcoralcolonies presumably behavior is very unusual is well established.

representclimatevariationswhileaspects uniqueto a single
coreare attributableto growthand otherfactors.Usingthis Acknowledgments. NCARis sponsored by theNationalSci-
assumption, it will be possibleto ensurethat the recorddoes ence Foundation. We thank David Stepaniakfor generatingthe fig-
representclimatevariationswhen sui•cientreconstructionsures. This researchwas sponsoredby N OAA O•ce of Global Pro-
havebeencompleted.It is alsoimportantto recognizethat gramsunder grant NA56GP0247 and by the GeophysicalStatistics
Project at NCAR under grant NSF DMS9312686.
oncenturytimescales, the climatehaschanged (forinstance,
the Little Ice Age)andconditions externalto the climatesys-
temhavealsochanged
(notablysolarandvolcanic
activity), References
andhenceinterpretation oftherecordmaynotbestraightfor-
wardin termsof deducing howmuchdecadalvariabilitythere Cole,J. E., R. G. Fairbanksand G. T. Shen,1993: Recent
shouldbe in ENSO in an unchangingclimate. Nevertheless, variability in the SouthernOscillation: Isotopicresults
coralrecordshavegreatpotentialfor clarifyingthe natural from a Tarawa atoll coral. Science, 260, 1790-1793.
variabilityof ENSO on varioustime scales. Dunbar, R. B., G. M. Wellington,M. W. Colgan,and P.
W. Glynn, 1994: EasternPacificseasurfacetemperature
since1600 A.D.: The 5•SOrecordof climatevariability in
Recent evidence Galapagoscorals. Paleoceanogr., 9, 291-315.
Harrison,D. E., and N. K. Larkin, 1997: Darwin sealevel
At the time TH waswritten (submittedin August1995), pressure,1876-1996:Evidencefor climatechange?Geo-
the future evolution of ENSO was quite uncertain, so it is phys. Res. Lttrs, 24, 1779-1782.
worthwhileexaminingthe morerecentevidence.Conditions Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1995: Time-mean response
in the tropicalPacificreturnedto aboutaveragein mid-1995 over the tropical Pacific to increasedCO2 in a coupled
and werefollowedby a weakLa Nifia eventfrom September ocean-atmospheremodel. J. Climate,8, 2181-2199.
1995to March 1996 (Fig. 1). However,beginningin April Knutson,T. R., S. Manabe and D. Gu, 1997: Simulated
1997a majorE1Nifioeventhasemergedandis still developing ENSO in a globalcoupledocean-atmosphere model:mul-
at this time. The amplitudeof SST anomaliesin the eastern tidecadal ampirude modulation and CO•. sensitivity. J.
Climate, 10, 138-161.
tropicalPacifichavealreadyexceeded 4øC and the eventis
Meehl,G. A. and W. M. Washington,1996:E1Nifio-likecli-
challenging
the1982-83
eventasthelargestonrecord(Figs.1 matechangein a modelwith increased
atmospheric
and 2). This currentbehaviorreinforces
the viewthat recent concentrations. Nature, 382, 56-60.
ENSO behavior is very unusual. Nicholls,N., B. Lavery,C. Frederiksen
andW. Drosdowsky,
Our resultsdependupon the assumption that we havea 1996: Recent apparent changesin relationshipsbetween
representative
sampleand that the SOI baseduponDarwin the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall
aloneis an adequatemeasure;unfortunatelyall other perti- and temperature. Geophys.Res. Lttrs, 23, 3357-3360.
nent data that we are aware of have problemswith homogene- Rajagopalan,
B., U. Lall andM. A. Cane,1997:Anomalous
ity and continuityof recordwhichare criticalfor detecting ENSO occurrences: An alternative view. J. Climate, 10,
2351-2357.
change.Our interpretationof the resultis that at leastpart
of what is happeningin ENSO cannot be accounted for solely Trenberth, K. E., 1984: Someeffectsof finite samplesize
andpersistence on meteorologicalstatistics.Pt. I: Auto-
by naturalvariability.But the existence of decadalvariabil- correlations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2359-2368.
ity in the Pacific[e.g.,Zhanget al., 1997]makesit di•cult Trenberth,K. E., 1984: Signalversusnoisein the Southern
to distinguishwhichpart. Anotherobservational studyre- Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 326-332.
vealschanges in therainfallandtemperatures associated with Trenberth,K. E., 1997: The definitionof E1 Nifio. Bull.
ENSO overAustraliasincethe 1970s[NichoIlset aI., 1996]. Amev.Met. Soc.,(in press).
Our results add further to the need to determine whether Trenberth, K. E., and T. J. Hoar, 1996: The 1990-1995
the anomalous behavior of ENSO is linked to or a consequence E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on record.
of the globalwarmingarisingfromanthropogenic increases in Geophys.Res. Lttrs, 23, 57-60.
greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere.Severalclimatemod- Zhang, Y., J. M. WallaceandD. S. Battisti, 1997:ENSO-
els do indicatea moreE1 Nifio-likeclimate (greaterwarming like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10,
1004-1020.
in the tropicaleast PacificOceanand an eastwardshift in
convectiveactivity in the Pacific)with increasedgreenhouse K. E. Trenberth and T. J. Hoar, Climate and Global
gases [e.g.,MeehlandWashington, 1996;Knutson et al., 1995, Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric
1997]. However,at presentit is not possible to makesuch Research,P.O. Box 3000, Boulder,CO 80307-3000.(e-mail:
an attribution definitivelybecausethe global climate mod- t renbert @ncar.ucar.edu)
els have trouble simulatingENSO with sufficientfidelity to
have confidence in the results. But that the recent observed (ReceivedAugust26, 1997;acceptedOctober22, 1997.)