404 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 11

ENSO Influences on Agriculture in the Southeastern United States*

JAMES W. HANSEN
Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

ALAN W. HODGES
Food and Resource Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

JAMES W. JONES
Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
(Manuscript received 19 May 1997, in final form 11 July 1997)

ABSTRACT
The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on crop production in the southeastern United States
was studied to identify crops that are vulnerable to ENSO-related weather variability and therefore likely to
benefit from application of ENSO-based climate forecasts. The historical (1960–95) response of total value and
its components (yield, area harvested, and price) to ENSO phases and quarterly sea surface temperature anomalies
(SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific was analyzed for six crops (peanut, tomato, cotton, tobacco, corn, and
soybean) in four states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina). ENSO phase significantly influenced
corn and tobacco yields, the areas of soybean and cotton harvested, and the values of corn, soybean, peanut,
and tobacco. ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million or 25.9% of the value of corn. Canonical
correlation analysis identified significant responses of corn, soybean, and cotton yields, and peanut value to SST
across the region; and of peanut and tobacco yields, and tomato and soybean values in particular states.

1. Introduction 1996). Handler showed that historical corn yields were

The uncertainty associated with weather variability is
a perpetual predicament for agriculture. Crop manage-
ment that is optimal in one year may contribute to crop
losses, overproduction, or environmental pollution in
another year with different weather. Evidence is growing
that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences
crop production through its influence on weather pat-
terns in some regions. El Niño events were associated
with low grain yields in south Asia and Australia and
high grain yields in the North American prairies (Gar-
nett and Khandekar 1992). ENSO-related SSTs were
strongly related to rainfall and corn yields in Zimbabwe,
where SST a full year before planting explained 57%
of the variability in yields (Cane et al. 1994). ENSO
influences corn yields in the midwestern and south-
eastern United States (Handler 1990; Carlson et al.
*Florida Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Series Number
R-05784.
Corresponding author address: Dr. James W. Hansen, Agricultural
and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110570,
Gainesville, FL 32611-0570.
E-mail: jhansen@agen.ufl.edu
correlated (|R| . 0.36) with Pacific SSTs for the pre-
ceding winter months in several midwestern and south-
eastern states and with spring and fall SSTs in Florida.
Besides crop yields, researchers have shown that wheat
rust in northern China and the northern Midwest and
Pacific Northwest in the United States (Scherm and
Yang 1995), soybean futures prices in the United States
(Keppenne 1995), and the gross value of Australian
crops (Nicholls 1985) were significantly associated with
measures of ENSO.
Several research groups are working to develop sta-
tistical and numerical models to predict ENSO-related
SSTs (Barnston et al. 1994) and their effects on regional
weather patterns (e.g., Barnett et al. 1994). In many
regions, ENSO-based predictions can now provide
weather information with useful skill at lead times of
several months. Researchers expect forecast accuracy to
increase as understanding of the ENSO phenomenon
grows and models and data monitoring improve. Sea-
sonal forecasts create the possibility of tailoring crop
management to anticipated weather conditions either to
take advantage of favorable conditions or to reduce the
effects of adverse conditions. At the level of regional
or national agricultural policy, the ability to forecast
crop production has implications for food staple storage

q 1998 American Meteorological Society

MARCH 1998 HANSEN ET AL. 405

fluence on crops in the southeastern United States is to

identify cropping enterprises in the region that are vul-
nerable to ENSO and to rank them in terms of economic
impact of ENSO. This will provide an indication of
which enterprises are most likely to benefit from ENSO
forecasts. The authors hypothesize that ENSO influenc-
es the value of crop production both directly through
its influence on weather patterns that affect yields, and
indirectly through producer and market response to pre-
vious and expected yields in the region and in other
important production regions.

FIG. 1. Raw and smoothed time series (a) and resulting anomalies
(b) of Florida corn yields, 1960–95.
capacity, trade agreements to offset local shortages in
food supplies, and planning to provide assistance to ad-
versely affected producers and populations.
In the southeastern U.S. coastal plain, El Niño years
tend to be cool and La Niña years tend to be warm
between October and April (Ropelewski and Halpert
1986, 1996; Kiladis and Diaz 1989; Sittel 1994a). Al-
though the influence on rainfall is spatially less consis-
tent, El Niño years tend to be wet and La Niña years
dry during these months. Although the ENSO signal in
the region is strongest in the fall and winter months,
some evidence exists that La Niña summers tend to be
slightly wetter than normal (Sittel 1994a,b). ENSO in-
fluence on rainfall has a lagged effect on streamflows
in the region, as Zorn and Waylen (1996) showed for
the Santa Fe River in northern Florida.
The objective of this exploratory study of ENSO in-
2. Approach
a. Data
1) CROPS
Historical records of yields, area harvested, price, and
total value of production of six economically important
crops (cotton, corn, peanut, soybean, tomato, and to-
bacco) in a four-state (Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and
South Carolina) region (Table 1) were examined. His-
torical state-level crop production, areas planted and
harvested, and price statistics are from the United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricul-
tural Statistics Service (NASS). Data cover 1960–95
except for tomato areas, prices and values, and all to-
bacco data, which were not available for 1995 at the
time of analysis. Alabama stopped reporting tobacco
data in 1981. Mean yields for each state were calculated
from total production and areas harvested. Where crop
values were reported for individual states, the average
price each year was calculated as the total value divided
by the total production of the four-state region. Other-
wise, national average prices were used, and total value
was calculated from national prices and reported pro-
duction for each state. Prices were adjusted to a 1995
basis using annual values of the U.S. urban consumer
price index.
2) ENSO
This study analyzed responses of crop variables to
both categorical and continuous measures of ENSO. Sea

TABLE 1. Recent crop production and value by state a, mean of 1991–95.

Production (Gg) Value (million $)

Crop AL FL GA SC Total AL FL GA SC Total
Peanut 239 98 790 14 1141 169 64 544 10 787
Tomato 22 796 47 50 915 11 653 35 42 741
Cotton 122 21 250 70 463 180 32 383 106 701
Tobaccoc 0b 8 41 50 99 0b 31 161 201 393
Corn 507 163 1280 587 2537 51 16 128 60 255
Soybean 203 32 361 351 947 47 7 82 81 217
a
AL 5 Alabama, FL 5 Florida, GA 5 Georgia, SC 5 South Carolina.
b
Not reported after 1980.
c
Mean of 1991–94.
406 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 11

TABLE 2. Significancea of response of anomalies of crop variables to ENSO phase.

Yield Area harvested Price Value

Effect Lag 0 Lag 1 Lag 0 Lag 1b Lag 2 Lag 0b Lag 1b Lag 2b Lag 0 Lag 1 Lag 2
ENSO phase *** *** ** n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. ** *** ***
Phase 3 state n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Phase 3 crop * n.s. ** n.s. *** n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. ** n.s.
Peanut n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. * n.s.
Tomato n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Cotton n.s. n.s. n.s. ** n.s. n.s. n.s.
Tobacco n.s. ** * n.s. n.s. * n.s.
Corn ** * n.s. n.s. * * ***
Soybean n.s. n.s. *** ** n.s. * **
a
Asterisks indicate significance at 5% (*), 1% (**), and 0.1% (***) level; n.s. indicates not significant.
b
Individual crops were not analyzed because ENSO phase and phase 3 crop effects were not significant.

surface temperature anomalies (SST, 8C) averaged over
the region of the eastern equatorial Pacific known as
NINO3 (58N to 58S, 1508 to 908W) are commonly used
as a continuous measure of ENSO strength. Monthly
SST values obtained from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Predic-
tion Center were aggregated into quarterly means.
ENSO phases (El Niño, neutral and La Niña) serve
as a categorical measure of ENSO activity. This study
used the COAPS (Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Pre-
diction Studies) classification based on monthly SST
anomalies in the region from 1508 to 908W and 48N to
48S, smoothed into 5-month running means (Sittel
1994b). A year (October–September) is classified as El
Niño (La Niña) if SST anomalies are at least 10.58C
(#20.58C for La Niña) for at least 6 consecutive months
and if this 6-month period starts before October and
includes October–December. The period from October
1957 to September 1995 includes 10 El Niño (beginning
1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1987,
and 1991) and 7 La Niña events (beginning 1964, 1967,
1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, and 1988).
b. Data preparation
The analyses required us to separate each historical
yield series into a trend that reflects changes in man-
agement and anomalies about the trend due to weather
variability. Crop management changes in response to
price fluctuations and the availability of new technology
in a way that is difficult to fit to a simple regression
function; there is no theoretical basis for selecting one
functional form over another. A harmonic smoothing
technique was therefore applied to separate higher-fre-

FIG. 2. Spectral densities of raw ( ) and smoothed (– – –) data and anomalies (········) of
Florida corn yields, 1960–95, smoothed with a five-point Hamming window.
MARCH 1998 HANSEN ET AL. 407

of anomalies (y, i.e., observed minus smoothed values)

about the trend, where y is the mean and s is the standard
deviation of the series of anomalies.

c. Analyses
1) RESPONSE TO ENSO PHASE

For each crop variable (yield, area harvested, price

FIG. 3. Box plots showing 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles and
means (solid line) of yield anomalies with a significant response to
ENSO phase, pooled across states, weighted by areas harvested in
each state, 1960–95. Means of ENSO phases with no common letters
below their respective box-and-whiskers are significantly different (P
5 0.05).
quency anomalies from lower-frequency trends. The
technique (Press et al. 1989) removes any linear trend
from a data series, transforms the data to the frequency
domain using Fourier analysis, applies a low-pass filter
covering a specified period, transforms back to the time
domain, then reinserts the linear trend. Spectral analysis
shows that rainfall in various regions of Florida oscil-
lates with periods from 5.2 to 6.3 yr (Hanson and Maul
1991) and that El Niño events (1525–1988) recurred
with a fundamental period of 6.7 yr (Hanson et al. 1989).
Therefore, a filtering period of 7.0 yr (frequency of
0.143 yr21 ) was used to smooth all crop data. Figure 1
shows raw and smoothed Florida corn yields for 1960–
95, and anomalies about the smoothed trend. Spectral
densities (Fig. 2) show that smoothing effectively sep-
arated the series into a lower-frequency trend and high-
er-frequency signals. Subsequent analyses were done on
standardized values,
z 5 (y 2 y)/s, (1)
and value), the hypothesis that ENSO phase influences
anomalies about the trend was tested by analysis of
variance (ANOVA) (Steel and Torrie 1980). Stratifi-
cation of standardized anomalies of yields, areas, or
values among the six crops, four states, and three ENSO
phases produced a three-way (ENSO phase, crop and
state) factorial sampling design, with generally 36 yr
observations per time series for each crop and state
combination. Although the design permits tests of the
influence of all three factors and their interactions on
each crop variable, the use of standardized anomalies
gave each crop and state a mean value of zero; crop
and state main effects and their interaction have no
meaning. Therefore, only the ENSO phase effect and
its interactions with crop and state were considered.
Crop prices were combined across states, resulting in a
two-way (ENSO phase and crop) factorial design. When
ANOVA indicated a significant ENSO phase effect, the
response of actual anomalies for each crop to ENSO
phase was analyzed by ANOVA, using pooled within-
sample and ENSO phase-by-state mean squared devi-
ations as the denominator for F-tests. Crop yields were
weighted by areas harvested in each state. To identify
which ENSO phases differed in their effect, Duncan’s
multiple range test was applied for each crop that
showed a significant response to ENSO phase.
2) RESPONSE TO SST
For yield and value, we considered SST values for
the 2 yr (eight quarters) ending with the winter (De-
cember–February) before the reported harvest (i.e., Feb-
ruary of the production calendar year). For prices and
areas harvested, we considered the 2 yr ending February
of the calendar year preceding the harvest, based on the
assumption that the impact of weather variability on
yields could influence prices the year after harvest.

TABLE 3. Canonical correlationa between crop yield anomalies and quarterly SST.

Crop Alabama Florida Georgia South Carolina Region

Peanut 0.585 n.s. 0.566 n.s. 0.651* 0.636* 0.674 n.s.
Tomato 0.451 n.s. 0.436 n.s. 0.472 n.s. 0.563 n.s. 0.633 n.s.
Cotton 0.519 n.s. 0.556 n.s. 0.441 n.s. 0.597 n.s. 0.739*
Tobacco 0.532 n.s. 0.664* 0.535 n.s. 0.487 n.s. 0.670 n.s.
Corn 0.569 n.s. 0.633* 0.497 n.s. 0.558 n.s. 0.760*
Soybean 0.594 n.s. 0.468 n.s. 0.487 n.s. 0.482 n.s. 0.799*
All 0.741 n.s. 0.871** 0.772 n.s. 0.822* 0.984*
a
Asterisks indicate significance at 5% (*), 1% (**), and 0.1% (***) level; n.s. indicates not significant.
408 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 4. Box plots showing 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles and
means (solid line) of harvested area anomalies with a significant
response to ENSO phase, summed across states, 1960–95. Means of
ENSO phases with no common letters below their respective box-
and-whiskers are significantly different (P 5 0.05).
Analysis of yields, areas harvested and value con-
sisted of comparing six crops in four states, or 24 crop
series, with eight quarterly SST series, yielding 192
comparisons. Critical values for statistical significance
of Pearson’s coefficient of linear correlation for com-
paring an individual pair of time series are not valid
when comparing many pairs of variables due to the
increasing probability of spurious correlations with an
increasing number of comparisons. Because of the mul-
tiplicity problem that results from many comparisons,
confidence in a relationship between a particular crop
and a particular SST time series (individual or com-
parisonwise significance) depends on first establishing
the relationship between the set of crops and the set of
SST series (field or experimentwise significance) (Liv-
ezey and Chen 1983).
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to ad-
dress the multiplicity problem in this study. CCA mea-
sures the linear association between two groups of vari-
ables (Nicholls 1987; Stevens 1992). The procedure it-
eratively transforms the data to find the orthogonal lin-
ear combinations (canonical variates) of variables in
each group that account for the maximum possible as-
sociation between the two groups of variables, using
eigenanalysis on the intercorrelation matrix for the two
VOLUME 11
TABLE 4. Effect of ENSO phase on mean annual crop value anom-
alies, total for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Value
is based on prices deflated to December 1995 basis.
Phase(s) Change in value
Lag Low High
Crop (yr) value value Million $ Percent*
Corn 2 neutral Niña 212.0 25.9
Soybean 2 neutral Niña 132.6 18.4
Peanut 1 Niña, neutral Niño 86.3 10.0
Tobacco 1 Niña, neutral Niño 56.5 7.4
* Percent of the long-term mean.
groups. The strength of the linear association between
the two groups is expressed by the canonical correlation
coefficient (R) defined as the linear correlation between
the canonical variates resulting from the first transfor-
mation. The canonical R thus expresses the maximum
association that linear combinations of variables in each
set can account for. A x 2 test is used to test the signif-
icance of the canonical R (Stevens 1992). When com-
paring a single predictand variable with a group of pre-
dictor variables, the canonical R is equivalent to the
multiple R returned by multiple linear regression. For
each of the four crop variables (yield, area, price, and
value), the linear relationship between anomalies for the
set of combinations of crop specie and state and quar-
terly SST series was analyzed by CCA. If the overall
relationship was significant for one of the crop variables,
the correlation of each crop, state, and crop–state com-
bination series with the set of lagged quarterly SST
series was then analyzed. Multiple linear regression was
used to confirm the multiple correlation coefficients and
significance tests returned by CCA.
3. Results
a. Yields
Crop yields showed a significant response to ENSO
phase in both the current and the previous year (Table
2) and to its interaction with crop specie in the current
year. The lack of significant interaction with state sug-
gests that crop response to ENSO phase was consistent
across the region. Crop yields tended to be higher than
the trend in La Niña years and lower than the trend in
years immediately following La Niña events (i.e., lag
5 1 yr). ANOVA of individual yield anomalies pooled
across states showed significant response to ENSO
phase only for corn and tobacco (Table 2, Fig. 3). Mean
yield anomalies of corn were 499 kg ha21 , or 13.9% of
the long-term average, higher in La Niña than in neutral
and El Niño years, and 426 kg ha21 (11.8%) lower in
the years following La Niña events. ENSO phase had
a smaller effect on tobacco yields (84.2 kg ha21 , or
3.6%, higher in years following El Niño events).
CCA showed a significant overall influence of SST
on crop yield anomalies in the region (Table 3). These
MARCH 1998 HANSEN ET AL. 409

FIG. 5. Box plots showing 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles and means (solid line) of crop
value anomalies with a significant response to ENSO phase, summed across states, 1960–95.
Means of ENSO phases with no common letters below their respective box-and-whiskers are
significantly different (P 5 0.05).

results identified ENSO signals in soybean and cotton
yields that ANOVA did not identify, but did not confirm
the ENSO signal in tobacco yields. The results suggest
that SST had a strong influence on yields of the six
crops in Florida (R 5 0.871) and a weaker influence in
South Carolina (R 5 0.822).
b. Prices
The results of ANOVA (Table 2) and CCA did not
support the hypothesis that ENSO influences prices of
the six crops studied. Therefore, price response to SST
was not analyzed for individual crops.
c. Areas harvested
ANOVA showed that the ENSO phase 2 yr prior to
harvest influenced anomalies of the areas of soybean,
cotton, and peanut harvested (Table 2). Anomalies of
areas of soybean harvested averaged 96 123 ha (8.3%)
higher in neutral than in La Niña years (Fig. 4). ENSO
phase also accounted for substantial shifts in areas har-
vested for tobacco (2777 ha, or 5.3% higher in neutral
than La Niña years) and cotton (40 861 ha, or 8.7%
higher in years following neutral than following El Niño
phases). Because CCA did not show a significant overall
relationship between harvested area anomalies and quar-
terly SST series, relationships of individual crops and
states to SST were not analyzed.
d. Total value
Crop value is the product of yield, area harvested,
and price. ANOVA results suggest that ENSO phase
influenced the value of all crops except tomato and cot-
ton (Table 2, Fig. 5). The rainfed grain crops (corn,
410 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 11

TABLE 5. Canonical correlationa between crop value anomalies and quarterly SST.

Crop Alabama Florida Georgia South Carolina Region

Peanut 0.612 n.s. 0.718** 0.712** 0.556 n.s. 0.741**
Tomato 0.332 n.s. 0.679* 0.423 n.s. 0.457 n.s. 0.687 n.s.
Cotton 0.524 n.s. 0.468 n.s. 0.541 n.s. 0.379 n.s. 0.673 n.s.
Tobacco 0.677 n.s. 0.608 n.s. 0.554 n.s. 0.508 n.s. 0.646 n.s.
Corn 0.370 n.s. 0.468 n.s. 0.486 n.s. 0.549 n.s. 0.701 n.s.
Soybean 0.463 n.s. 0.679* 0.537 n.s. 0.570 n.s. 0.713 n.s.
All 0.713 n.s. 0.874*** 0.791 n.s. 0.678 n.s. 0.992***
a
Asterisks indicate significance at 5% (*), 1% (**), and 0.1% (***) level; n.s. indicates not significant.

soybean, and peanut) showed the greatest response to
ENSO phase (Table 4).
Canonical correlation analysis showed a highly sig-
nificant overall response to SST (Table 5). Peanut was
the only crop that showed a significant response to SST
for the whole region. The significant response of Florida
crop value to SST suggests that, for the six crops stud-
ied, it is the most vulnerable of the four states to ENSO-
related climate variability.
4. Discussion
Results of this study support the hypothesis that
ENSO influences the total value of crops in the south-
eastern Unites States. The influence of ENSO on yields
can be explained more easily than its influence on areas
harvested. Corn yields tended to be high in La Niña
years and low in the years that follow La Niñas (Fig.
3). We attribute this largely to ENSO influence on June
rainfall. Corn yield is most susceptible to water stress
at tasseling, which occurs in mid-June through most of
the study region. June rain tends to be high in La Niña
years (Fig. 6a) and in the years that follow El Niño
events (Fig. 6c) in the main crop-growing region of the
Georgia coastal plain. The high yields following neutral
years relative to years following La Niñas (Fig. 3) may
be due to greater residual soil moisture from relatively
high May rainfall (Fig. 6b).
Results of this study did not support the hypothesis
that ENSO influences crop values by influencing their
prices. This would seem to contradict the results of Kep-
penne (1995) who presented evidence of a strong re-
lationship between monthly SOI (Southern Oscillation
index) and U.S. soybean futures prices, both prefiltered
using singular spectrum analysis (an adaptation of prin-
cipal component analysis applied to time-series data).
The price (futures versus farmgate) and ENSO (SOI
versus SST and phases) data, and the methods used were
different than in this study. However, ANOVA would
indicate a significant 2-yr lag price response to ENSO
phase if only soybean prices were considered, with the
average price $17.15 Mg21 higher in the second year
following La Niña than neutral or El Niño years (Fig.
7). This illustrates the multiplicity problem that arises
when examining response to ENSO for several crops
across several locations. In this study, appropriate mea-
sures to avoid spurious results for the set of crop prices
resulted in a loss of power to identify an ENSO signal
in a particular crop price.
One possible explanation for the significant response
of areas of soybean harvested to ENSO phase relates
to the fishing industry off the southwest coast of South
America. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures as-
sociated with El Niño events lead to reduced harvests
of anchovy and tuna, thus increasing the demand and
price for substitutes for fish protein for livestock feed
(Philander 1990; Keppenne 1995). The increased soy-
bean area observed 2 yr after El Niño events (Fig. 4)
may be a lagged response to the resulting increase in
demand.

FIG. 6. Box plots showing 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles and means (solid line) of (a)
June rainfall by current ENSO phase, (b) May rainfall by preceding ENSO phase, and (c) June
rainfall by preceding year ENSO phase, Tifton, Georgia, 1960–95.
MARCH 1998 HANSEN ET AL.
FIG. 7. Box plot showing 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100th percentiles and
means (solid line) of U.S. soybean price anomalies by ENSO phase
2 yr prior, 1960–95.
Although CCA generally confirmed the results of
ANOVA, the two methods identified ENSO responses
for different sets of crops. The two methods consider
different information. CCA considers the magnitude and
timing of SST anomalies. Much of that information is
lost when converting SST into ENSO phases, suggesting
that ANOVA might be less sensitive to real ENSO ef-
fects. On the other hand, CCA assumes a linear rela-
tionship between SST and crop variables. However, both
crop response to weather and the response of regional
weather to ENSO events can be quite asymmetrical,
thus, response to an El Niño can be qualitatively dif-
ferent from a La Niña. CCA cannot be expected to iden-
tify ENSO effects correctly when this is the case. Fur-
thermore, CCA is more conservative and less robust
than ANOVA with respect to the small sample sizes
relative to the number of crops and states considered
(Stevens 1992; Cherry 1996). For these reasons, CCA
results should be seen as secondary to ANOVA results
in this study, and should be interpreted with caution.
These findings have important practical implications.
Crop value serves as an index of the aggregate economic
impact of ENSO in the region. The magnitude of the
influence of ENSO phase on crop value was quite large:
more than $200 million or 25.9% of the long-term av-
erage value for corn (Table 4, Fig. 5). We believe that
such a strong influence of ENSO on the value of crop
production in the southeast United States justifies efforts
to further characterize, predict, and find ways to exploit
this effect. By knowing the ENSO phase, farmers could
modify practices such as cultivar selection, planting
dates, and fertilizer or irrigation schedules to reduce
losses or take advantage of favorable conditions. More
study is needed to characterize ENSO influence on
weather and crops and to identify optimum management
practices for each ENSO phase.
411
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