-Sgt.

Joe Friday
 Total Hospitalizations
18,825 18,697
18,569 18,654 18,707 18,335
18,079 18,279
17,493 17735
16,837
16,479
15,905

14,810

13,383

12,226

10,929

9,517

8,503

7,328
6,481

5,327

4,079
3,343
2,629
2,043
1,406
1,042
496 617
326

March 16 April 15
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 Total Hospitalizations
18,279 18,654 18,825
18,707 18,697
18,079
18,569 18,33517,735
17,493

Apex
16,837
16,479
15,905

14,810
?
13,383

12,226

10,929

9,517

8,503

7,328
6,481

5,327

4,079
3,343
2,629
2,043
1,406
1,042
496 617
326

March 16 April 15

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 Net Change in Total Hospitalizations
1,412 1,427

1,297
1,248
1,154 1,175 1,157
1,014 1,095

847

714 736
637 656
586 574 586

425
364 358
290

200
170 85 53
121 118
91

-128

-362

-600

March 16 April 15
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
Net Change in Hospitalizations (3-Day Average)
1,289 1,294
1,226
1,200 1,214

1,083
1,046 1,059
1,012 1,032

899

679 676
646

529 529 533

475 481

359
303
239
192
131 127 143
91 85
14

-124

-363

March 16 April 15

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 Net Change in ICU Admissions
395
374 374
358
335
315 312
302
282

250

215
192 189
172

143 140 135

128
104 101
84
77
69
46
33 35

-17 -20
-42

-134
March 1 April 15
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 Net Change in Intubations
351

313 316
303
295 291
290

260

222

200
192

165

132
124 121
116
109 110
93 94
88
69 69

43
27

-7
-14
-21
-26
-40
March 17 April 15
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 New COVID Hospitalizations Per Day
Gross change in hospitalizations 3,413
3,261

3,034

2,844 2,857 2,848 2,882

2,821

2,553 2,538
2,507 2,486

2,241 2,253

2,082
1,958 1,996
1,883
1,796 1,813
1,722
1,649

1,084

909
823
776

489

March 20 April 15
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
This means we can
control the beast.

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

Lives lost yesterday:
606
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 Number of Lives Lost
April 10: 783
April 11: 758
April 12: 671
April 13: 778
April 14: 752
April 15: 606
(577 Hospitals, 29 Nursing Homes)
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 When is it over?

How do we get there?

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 -
12 18
Today Months
Vaccine
Medical Treatment

Do No Harm: Control the rate of infection

Surge/Flex: Strengthen the healthcare system

Test/Trace: Need federal partnership

Phased Return:
WHAT businesses reopen?
•
•
HOW do they reopen and operate?
WHERE should open first (or last)?
WHEN do businesses reopen?

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 Risk v. Reward Analysis
What businesses reopen?
“More-Essential” Industry “Less-Essential” Industry
Low Services/product more
essential, low risk of
Infection workplace or customer
Risk infection spread
Services/product more
Higher essential, higher risk of
Infection workplace or customer
infection spread
Risk
Services/product less
essential, low risk of
workplace or customer
infection spread
Services/product less
essential, higher risk of
workplace or customer
infection spread
 Risk v. Reward Analysis
How do businesses reopen?
“More-Essential” Industry “Less-Essential” Industry
Low
Infection First priority – 100% 25% - 50% - 75%
Risk
Serious precautions – no
Higher vulnerable employees or
Infection 25% - 50% - 75% customers, antibody &
Risk diagnostic testing
 Risk v. Reward Analysis
When do businesses reopen?
“More-Essential” Industry “Less-Essential” Industry
Low As infection rate
goes down….
Infection First Priority – ASAP
…pace of
Risk reopening goes up
As infection rate Last priority – dependent on
Higher goes down….
infection decline and
Infection …pace of precautions put in place.
Risk reopening goes up
Risk v. Reward Analysis

NY
MA
CT
RI
PA

NJ

DE
 Analysis Underway
BUT
We must the workplace
• Who can telecommute?
• How do we social distance in the workplace?
• Businesses must strategize

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 Precautions and Practices
Transport: Ensure your employees have means for safe transport (i.e., masks,
gloves for public transit) or require telecommuting/work from home.
Workplace: Ensure workplace designed to include social distancing measures
(i.e., desks six feet apart, conference rooms redesigned), telecommuting for
those who can and the most vulnerable
Customer Interaction: Ensure measures designed to ensure minimal contact
with customers, ensure public-interacting employees have necessary protective
supplies such as gloves, masks, etc.). Need for special precautions for
businesses that primarily interact with most vulnerable.
Proactive Infection Plan: Ensure protocols in place should an employee develop
COVID-19 symptoms or test positive (i.e. work from home plan)
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
Our goal is that the
will be
a better New York.
 Testing
• Best tool to inform decisions and calibrate progress of risk/reward
business reopening plan
• New frontier for all of us
• NYS tests more than any other state
• New York set a very ambitious goal and reached it!
• 500,000 in 30 days more than California, Florida and Michigan
combined
• But we have 19 million people, 9 million workers.
• Many questions to answer
• Sites, supplies, lab capacity, acquisition of chemicals
• Tracing army
• Need federal help. Period.
 Strengthen Healthcare System
• Continue surge & flex
• Build out strategic stockpile PPE
• Share resources amongst states and
localities
Strengthen Healthcare System

We will be sending

100
VENTILATORS

to our friends in New Jersey.

 Key Is Not To Increase Infection Rate
• How do we track infection rate?
•
• We see hospitalization rate, which happens after a
person is infected and only if the person gets
severely ill.
• Advanced testing will help determine infection rate
 Infection Rate

How quickly is the virus spreading?

It is a virus that is
quite good at
transmitting from one
person to another.
Dr. Tony Fauci
MARCH 17TH, 2020
 Columbia University
as of Mar 29th
~136,000 NYC Only
140,000

Why were all the projection models

130,000
120,000

higher than actualized

110,000
100,000 Gates-funded IHME
90,000 (as of Apr 1)
~73,000 Statewide McKinsey severe scenario
80,000

SO FAR?
~110,000 Statewide
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 McKinsey moderate scenario
30,000
~55,000 Statewide
20,000
10,000

03/01 03/08 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26 05/03 05/10 05/17
 Columbia University
as of Mar 29th
~136,000 NYC Only
140,000
130,000
120,000

Because we slowed the infection rate

110,000
100,000
90,000
Gates-funded IHME
(as of Apr 1)
McKinsey severe scenario
80,000
70,000 the models projected.
~73,000 Statewide
~110,000 Statewide
60,000
50,000
40,000 McKinsey moderate scenario
30,000
~55,000 Statewide
20,000
10,000

03/01 03/08 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26 05/03 05/10 05/17
 CDC Projections March 13

• 160 million 214 million people infected

• Current U.S. population: 328 million
• 2.4 million 21 million people
hospitalized
• 925,000 staffed hospital beds in entire
United States

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.

 Projection Models for US
1.5-2.2 million deaths
without mitigation measures

White House
Coronavirus Task Force
as of March 31
 Projection Models for US
1.5-2.2 million deaths
without mitigation measures

White House 100,000-240,000 deaths

Coronavirus Task Force
as of March 31
with mitigation measures
Projection Models for US
1.5-2.2 million deaths
without mitigation measures

100,000-240,000 deaths

with mitigation measures

60,000 deaths
White House
Coronavirus Task Force projection
 Plan for the Worst, Hope for the Best
Columbia University
as of Mar 29th
~136,000 NYC Only
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000 Gates-funded IHME
90,000 (as of Apr 1)
~73,000 Statewide McKinsey severe scenario
80,000
~110,000 Statewide
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 McKinsey moderate scenario
30,000
~55,000 Statewide
20,000
10,000

03/01 03/08 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26 05/03 05/10 05/17
 Plan for the Worst, Hope for the Best
Columbia University
as of Mar 29th
~136,000 NYC Only
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000 Gates-funded IHME
90,000 (as of Apr 1)
~73,000 Statewide McKinsey severe scenario
80,000
~110,000 Statewide
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 McKinsey moderate scenario
30,000
~55,000 Statewide
20,000
10,000 Today 17,735

03/01 03/08 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26 05/03 05/10 05/17
What is the infection rate?

How many people does

one person then infect?
 Modeling How Fast the Virus Will Spread
Disease Decline R0 = <1 Disease Stability R0 = 1 Disease Spread R0 = 2
Modeling How Fast the Virus Will Spread
One existing infection

>1
causes more than one new
infection: COULD RESULT
IN OUTBREAK OR
EPIDEMIC.

One existing infection

1= causes one new

infection. May not
result in an outbreak
but still problematic.

One existing infection

<1 causes less than one

new infection. Or the
virus has stopped
spreading.
 Modeling Virus Spread Hospital Need
NYS
Moderate
Diamond
After mitigation efforts: Spread 1918 Princess
Projection Pandemic Cruise Ship
Wuhan 1.2-1.45 1.4-2.8 2.2
After
Action NYS NYS Severe
~.3 Today Spread
Wuhan
Projection
~.90? 2.0-3.0+
1.4-1.8

<1 1= >1
 ~ .9 1.2
MARGIN OF ERROR

Current Increases Hospitalization

Infection Rate Rate
 NY Pause
NY Pause has worked.
But we are not there yet.
NY Pause will be extended
in coordination with other
states to May 15.
STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.
 You must wear a mask when riding:
• On public transportation systems

• Private transportation carriers and for-hire

vehicles
• All operators of public systems, private carriers,
and for-hire vehicles must wear a mask at all
times
• Effective Friday at 8 p.m.
What Determines Infection Rate Spread?

YOU!
 Your BEHAVIOR
Your DISCIPLINE
Your EDUCATION OF YOUR CHILDREN
Your CONSIDERATION OF OTHERS
• Wear a mask?
• Wash your hands?
• Maintain social distance?
• Educate your children?
• Use hand sanitizer?
• Make smart choices?
 Personal Opinion
Of all the
UNIQUE
aspects of
THIS CRISIS
The most positive and surprising
How New Yorkers/Americans Rose to the Challenge

The
the paper they are presented on unless
people decide to follow them.

And they are very hard to follow!!!

 I trust in you.
If the facts are presented

New Yorkers will do the

And we will lead the way forward!
And we have.
Because we
 NEW YORK TOUGH
SMART
UNITED
DISCIPLINED
LOVING

STAY HOME. STOP THE SPREAD. SAVE LIVES.