SEISMO-TECTONIC MODELING OF PAKISTAN

1. INTRODUCTION

Earthquake is a natural phenomenon and earthquakes can happen at any time at about any place. But
mostly they occur at some weak planes or places under stress - faults. Earthquakes do happen at places
other than faults but their frequency and magnitude are quite less than those at these preferred sites.
So as a matter of fact, it is assumed that seismicity is mostly associated with certain tectonic features.
The tectonic features have specific source mechanisms expressing their characteristics. These source
mechanisms are mainly understood from fault plane solutions regarding associated earthquakes.
Conversely, source mechanism solutions of different earthquakes confirm their association with a
known fault system. Tectonic features of certain source mechanisms and dimensions can produce
specific earthquakes of maximum magnitude potential. Moreover, their associated seismicity also helps
us about achieving the goal of determination of maximum magnitude potential. The seismo-tectonic
model is one of pivotal elements concerning seismic hazard assessment. In this study, seismo-tectonic
model for Pakistan has been developed. It is worth mentioning that the seismo-tectonic modeling is
actually the identification of potential seismic sources in the study area as an evaluation of the tectonic
history of the region considering available geological data and information or an evaluation of historical
as well as recent instrumental seismic data in relation to the study area, emphasizing that these data are
the key empirical basis for conducting seismic hazard analyses. Available and relevant geological
information are examined in order to locate and characterize the active and potentially active geological
structures - faults and/or segments of faults which may represent a potential seismic source which could
influence seismic hazard evaluation at a certain site. Additional information about the earthquake
rupture processes, mode of faulting, stress field, source mechanism, etc. can improve the understanding
of the geodynamics of the study area.

The geological and seismological information is used to formulate the models for the potential
earthquake sources which could influence the seismic hazard at certain site. The key aspects of the
source characterization are the modeling of area sources basing on the geology of the region generally
and on earthquake occurrence statistics depending upon the historical and contemporary seismicity
catalogues particularly, and modeling of fault specific sources with the three-dimensional geometry, if
such detailed information is somehow available. It is noteworthy that detailed fault modeling is rarely
included in the regional hazard studies just as in this case. The characterization of each seismic source
would be comprehensive depending upon the seismic data and will explicitly incorporate the
uncertainties in each source characteristics. Maximum earthquake magnitude potentials are evaluated
using a combination of physical methods, historical seismicity and empirical evidence from geologically
similar regions. The actual seismic hazard computations for a certain site are based on the integrated
probabilistic contribution to the ground motion by the fault-specific and area sources modified by the
seismic wave attenuation (PMD and NORSAR, 2007). 5.

5.2 TECTONIC SETTING OF PAKISTAN: Plate tectonics has been very successful in providing a cogent
framework to explain large scale geological and tectonic features, both on the boundaries between the
tectonic plates but also within them. Seismicity and fault plane solutions quite clearly outline the fault
zones and relative motion of tectonic plates, and the new GPS measurements have opened new
significant insights into the dynamics of the plate motions. Plate tectonics theory explicates that the
Himalayan mountain ranges are actually a consequence of the Indian - Eurasian plates collision, as
shown in Figure 5-1. The Indian subcontinent plate has been subducting beneath the Eurasian plate
since a long while. During this time of 30-40 million years, continental lithosphere longer than 2000 km
has been shortened into the massive mountain ranges and elevated plateaus of the central Asia (e.g.,
Molnar and Topponier, 1975; Bollinger et al., 2004). The earthquake activity clearly exhibits that the
earthquakes mainly concentrate along the plate margins (Figure 5-2). It clearly shows the regional
earthquake distribution even without the details about the map (time period, sources, magnitude type
etc.).

The Himalayan region is quite massive and contains large parts that are remote and sparsely populated
but overview of the seismicity there for the last 500 years can be sought, even with the indications of an
earthquake deficit at present in some of its parts (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Bilham and Ambraseys,
2005; Feldl and Bilham, 2006). The creation of the highest mountains in the world has been resulted
from this continentto-continent collision in the Himalayas (Figure 5-1), which are still being uplifted
more rapidly than any other mountain range in the world Collision of Indian plate with Eurasian plate.
Following remarkable mountain structures have resulted from this collision: ¾ The Himalayan ranges in
central region. ¾ The Arakan-Yoma Mountain ranges of Burma in the east. ¾ The Naga Hills of Assam
towards the east. ¾ The rising Tien-Shan Mountain ranges in the central Asia. ¾ The Karakoram
Mountain ranges in Pakistan. ¾ The Hindu Kush Mountains and the Pamir ranges.

The Baluchistan arc marked by the Kirthar as well as Sulaiman ranges delineating the continent-
continent collision zone in the west. Figure 5-2 shows the regional seismicity and their association with
the tectonic boundaries. Figure 5-2. The regional seismicity of Southern Asia (above magnitude 4.0)
according to USGS According to the Figures 5-1 and 5-3 the mountains, notably Hindu Kush, Pamir and
Karakoram, are characterized by the deep and concentrated seismicity by which significant seismic
energy is discharged every year. The Hindu Kush and Pamir are amongst the most active seismic regions
of world (Nowroozi, 1971). The Himalayas and the Baluchistan Arc are the southernmost frontal parts of
this collision zone which extends north-ward through Afghanistan and Tibet into China and the Central
Asia. Figure 5-3 shows how the Chaman fault meets with the Herat fault and in the Pamir region these
tectonic structures bend east-ward and split into the Karakoram and the Altayan Tagh fault systems. The
under-thrusting of Indian shield beneath Himalayas and transverse ranges of the Baluchistan arc was
clearly recognized from the fault plane solutions, as shown in Figures 5-3, 5-8 and 5-9. (Tandon and
Srivastava, 1975). Left lateral strike-slip movement upon the north-south striking Chaman fault has been
postulated on the basis of the geologic evidence (Wellman, 1966) and this is partly supported by the
focal mechanism solutions in Figure 5-8. Figure 5-3. Major tectonic features in Pakistan (courtesy:
Geological Survey of Pakistan) The Sulaiman as well as the Kirthar ranges are aligned in north-south
direction creating the significant Baluchistan Arc (Figure 5-3). Near Nanga Parbat, NW-SE trending
mountains of the Kashmir, forming the western portion of the Himalaya Arc, bend stridently to south
(Meltzer et al., 2001) forming western Himalayan syntaxis (often called as the Hazara-Kashmir syntax).
From there, NE-SW trending of Baluchistan arc is generally maintained along Sulaiman-Kirthar mountain
ranges for nearly 1000 km. Then it takes a sharp turn to west and maintains almost east-west trending
along Makran coastal ranges and mountain ranges of Southern Iran. These two mountain ranges express
a dynamic arc system by many researchers (Farhoudi and Karig, 1977). William (1976) has documented
about the structure of Baluchistan arc and has illustrated it as similar to the Himalaya arc and it is also
dominated by the tight folds as well as over thrusts On southern end of Sulaiman ranges, the mountains
sharply turn towards west, maintaining an east-west trending for about 300 km, and then take another
sharp twist to south in the vicinity of the city of Quetta surrounding the Sibi trough (Figure 5-3). The
north-south trending continues along the mountains of Kirthar (West, 1934). The Sulaiman as well as
Kirthar mountain ranges are quite alike in many aspects such as geology, structure and stratigraphy.
Structure of area consists of a complex folds and thrusts having axes shifting from eastwest to the north-
south. The Chaman fault (Figure 5-3) is a seismically active fault. It starts from Hirat, Afghanistan, in the
west and moves to the east and causes the seismic activities in Pakistani area. It bypasses the angular
configuration of the Quetta and the Sulaiman ranges. It connects to the Kirthar range from west of
Quetta. The Chaman fault zone characterizes the western boundary of this wide deformation zone.
While its northern part traverses Afghanistan, the central part goes into Pakistan northwest of Quetta
before it continues southwards towards the Arabian Sea (PMD and NORSAR, 2007).

5.3 SEISMO-TECTONICS OF PAKISTAN:

Pakistan is situated on the north-west part of Indian plate which subducts beneath Eurasian plate.
Direction of the horizontal compression has been deduced from the focal mechanism solutions as shown
in Section 5.5.4 (Figure 5-8). Pakistan was divided into 18 zones for the study of earthquake hazard in
Pakistan (see Figure 5-5 later). The Hindu Kush region generates regularly quite large earthquakes,
occurring down to 300 km depth, which are also felt in most of Pakistan. The direction of crustal stress
in the Kashmir is NE-SW, perpendicular to the line of plate collision and the MBT. In the Hindu Kush
region, the earthquake mechanism is generally thrust faulting occasionally normal faulting whereas in
the Kashmir, the earthquakes mainly show thrust faulting mechanism with a clear NE-SW compression.
Both the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush ranges are caused by the Indian - Eurasian plates collision. The
Indian plate collides and under-plates the Eurasian plate. In the Kashmir region the important Hazara-
Kashmir Syntax (HKS) is found, which was formed due to the change in the Himalayan thrust interface
direction from NE in Kashmir to the NW along the Indus. The Punjal thrust as well as the MBT (Main
Boundary Thrust) are folded around this syntax and are subject to a 90o “rotation” from one side to the
other side. Active Jhelum fault truncates the Punjal thrust, MBT and Kashmir thrust (Baig and Lawrence,
1987). Beside other faults in the region, the Jhelum fault acts as an active left-lateral oblique reverse
fault. General seismicity pattern of the Jhelum-Ambore zone is low activity of regular earthquakes with
magnitudes ≤ 4.0. The historical and the instrumental seismic data from this region show no earthquake
with a size exceeding magnitude 6.8. In the western Himalayas (Gilgit Area of Gilgit-Baltistan), the
seismic activity is associated with the earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger, and largely coincides with
the surface trace of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust (MCT) rather than with the Himalayan Main
Boundary Thrust (MBT) which represents the structural boundary. Many of the earthquakes that occur
on the MBT take place at shallower depths and are associated with a shallow northward dipping
subsurface extension of the MBT underlying the MCT (the under-plating of the Eurasian plate). One
section of the eastern Himalayan frontal thrust was relatively quiet during the last many decades. This is
the source zone of the Kangra earthquake of Ms 8.0 which occurred in 1905 and which extended from
Kangra to Dehra Dun, i.e. 76o E to 78o E (Middlemiss, 1910). The second section of currently low seismic
activity is near the eastern flanks of the Kashmir syntaxial bend (Figure 5-2). Note that the north western
end of the zone of low activity in the Kashmir stops against a zone of high activity which is mainly the
area of the destructive Pattan earthquake of December 28, 1974 (Magnitude 6.0) and the 8th October,
2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6). The seismicity in the Kirthar range is relatively diffused as
compared to that in the Suleiman range. In the latter, the seismicity falls on or near a well defined fault
scarp which offsets the range against the east-ward extending Indus basin. The northern two thirds of
the faults have been ruptured in the large Much earthquake of August 27, 1931 (West, 1934). The most
remarkable clustering of seismic activity in Figure 5-3 occurs in the Quetta transverse range as far as 100
km south of its higher peaks and is situated within or beneath the thick young tertiary sediments of the
Indus basin.

5.4 SIGNIFICANT FAULTS OF PAKISTAN:

It has been established that the major faults of Pakistan appear to be seismically quiet except at the
times of large earthquakes (e.g. Nakata et al., 1991). It seems that this silence (or seismic gap) is at least
true for the Himalayas. It represents a problem while conducting seismic hazard evaluation as we can
find a seismic gap in an area and it may be found inactive for larger time periods than the monitoring
record Also, while a thrust regime clearly dominates in several places of the study area, it is often
difficult or impossible to associate specific seismic activity with specific fault traces, and this leads to the
conclusion that many faults may be blind. The description below is mainly based on the “Seismic Risk
Map of northern Pakistan” produced by the National Geo-data Centre, GSP (Geological Survey of
Pakistan), 1988 and a number of other sources. These faults contribute towards allocation of source
zones and determination of deterministic seismic hazard assessment at different locations. These are
the significant as well as the major faults of Pakistan influencing seismo tectonic model. Map of all the
faults, which are more than 50, used in the study is presented in Figure 5-3. 5.4.1 Jhelum fault It is an
important strike-slip fault (wrench fault) trending north-south, which tracks the western periphery of
axial zone of Hazara- Kashmir syntaxial bend. The fault was reported by the original researchers to
extend along the Jhelum river and further southwards to the Chaj Doab. Between Muzaffarabad and
Kohala, this fault apparently dislocates the MBT and a left-lateral offset of about 30 km is indicted on the
western limb of the syntaxis (see Figure 5-3). In this region of Murree, Abbottabad and Hazara the
geological formations are extremely deformed as well as displaced several km south-wards. It is the
youngest and active major tectonic feature in the syntaxial zone. Based on the seismicity, the fault is
quite an active one (Mahdi, 2005). Figure 5-4. Tectonic faults considered in the study Tarbela fault It is
also a strike-slip fault that passes below the Tarbela dam and separates the Salkhlala and Tanawal
formations on the west bank of the Indus River from the Abbottabad formation. Margalla Fault It is an
important fault, which runs along NE-SW direction and joins the main boundary thrust (MBT) in the
Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial zone. It passes north of Islamabad on the southern piedmont slopes of the
Margalla Hills. As a result of this fault, the Datta formation and the Samanasuk limestone are thrusted
over the Lockhart limestone. There is no record or indication of any recent movement along the
Margalla fault. 5.4.4 The Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) The Main Karakoram Thrust or the northern
mega shear represents the collision zone of the southern margin of the Eurasian plate in Asia and
extends into the Baltistan area through Hashupa and Machie in the Shigar and Shyok valleys,
respectively. MKT is a high angle, seismically active thrust with a large number of earthquakes of low to
medium intensity (Seismic Risk Map of Northern Pakistan, 1988, PGS). 5.4.5 The Main Mantle Thrust
(MMT) The Main Mantle Thrust or the southern mega shear is a north-ward dipping regional thrust
which detaches the Indian plate from the Kohistan Island Arc. It spans an area of approximately 400 sq.
km through the districts of Diyamir, Kohistan, Swat, Dir and Bajaur with a total length of 420 miles. Its
extension is from Khar (Bajaur Agency) in west to Naran in the east. Shortest distances from Islamabad
and Peshawar are 87 and 46 miles, respectively. 5.4.6 The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) The Main
Boundary Thrust is a distinct and important tectonic feature along the entire Himalayan Belt. The MBT
loops around the Hazara syntaxial zone. It represents the major zone of recent deformation and the
largest earthquakes. The MBT stretches from the Afghan border, and can be traced nearly continuously
to the Assam through Eastern India. It is the single most potent earthquake source in the Himalayas.
Islamabad Rawalpindi area is located at a close distance south of the western limb of the MBT. MBT and
MMT are mostly considered to have different segments while calculating the associated seismic hazard.
Punjal Thrust Punjal thrust Fault is a significant active tectonic characteristic of some regional
importance. It also comprised of several segments. This fault meets the Khairabad fault situated on
Northern Attock Cherat range. Therefore, it is also known as Punjal Khairabad thrust. 5.4.8 Kalabagh
Fault Kalabagh fault is a prominent right-lateral strike-slip fault which extends between Kalabagh and
Mianwali. It truncates at the western margin of the Salt Range. 5.4.9 Salt Range Thrust SRT encapsulates
southern edge of Salt range separating the Jhelum and the Indus rivers. SRT terminates in the west
against Kalabagh fault and its eastern termination is near the right bank of Jhelum river. Kurram Fault
Kurram Thrust is a NNE-WSW trending north-ward dipping active tectonic feature separating the Kakar
Khorsan Flysh basin in the north and the west from Bela Ophiolite thrust and fold belt in the east and
south. 5.4.11 Sulaiman Range Fault In Sulaiman range, two left-lateral wrench faults eastern and
western margin of the range have been identified. On the eastern side, two faults constitute a left-
lateral fault system having Chaudhan fault and Domanda fault. On the western side, there are three N-S
trending faults constituting a left-lateral fault system. These faults comprise Thakht-e- Sulaiman fault,
Manikhawa fault and Moghulkot fault. 5.4.12 Chaman Transverse Fault Chaman fault is one of the major
left-lateral transform faults of Pakistan. Chaman fault is an active plate boundary which defines the
western periphery of Indo-Pakistan plate. It connects Makran convergence zone with Himalayan
convergence zone (Indo-Pakistan 94 plate is under-thrusting the Eurasian plate here). Chaman fault is
amongst the most significant and the active geodynamic features which has a wide fault zone. 5.4.13
Kirthar Fault Kirthar fault is quite a prominent N-S trending lineament on the satellite imagery. Kirthar
fault along with the other N-S trending en-chelon faults of the Kirthar range front and foothills are
considered seismically active. A number of earthquake epicenters are located in this region, which have
been associated with this fault. 5.4.14 Ghazaband Fault It is a NNE-SSW orientation fault, located in the
Ghazaband Pass Kirdgap region. At places the fault is concealed under the alluvium. Southward it trends
to merge with the Chaman/Oranch-Nal transform fault system. 5.4.15 Pab Fault Pab fault has a NNW-
SSE trending, located along western boundary of Khude fold belt. Pab thrust is considered seismically
active, located in the north-west vicinity of Karachi. 5.4.16 Hoshab Fault Hoshab fault is one of many
major thrust faults which divide the Makran region into a number of thrust bound blocks. Hoshab fault is
situated in the Makan convergence zone, which is an intensely deformed, east-west trending fold and
thrust belt. This fault has an arc shape having east-west trending near the Nasirabad and Hoshab areas,
however eastward it swings to the north-east until it runs parallel to Mashkai rud. 5.4.17 Nai Rud Fault
Nai rud fault is quite an active thrust fault, situated in the vicinity fold and thrust belt pertaining to the
Makran convergence zone and trending east-west. Nai-Rud fault has a NE-SW trending, almost parallel
to the Nai Rud valley and bears the characteristics of a thrust with left-lateral strike-slip component.
5.4.18 Run of Kutch Fault Run of Kutch is an active fault of regional extent having an east-west
orientation. The extensions of this fault in the east as well as the west are, in fact, not so well-defined.
However, two important possibilities have been suggested so far; for east ward extension, either fault
extends along the axis of the great Run of Kutch or it extends to 50 km east of fort Sidry, where it curves
North-east-ward to follow the geomorphic boundary between the Thar desert and the great Run of
Kutch. It is seismically active, which is evident by several major and minor earthquakes associated to this
regional tectonic boundary.

5.5 AREA SOURCES OR SEISMIC PROVINCES:

Pakistan was divided into 18 source zones for the study of earthquake hazard in Pakistan. These zones
included some portions of the neighboring countries on the pattern of PMD and NORSAR (2007). These
source zones provide base for the determination of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at different
locations. The region has been divided into these zones basing on seismicity, stress direction analysis
through focal mechanism solutions and the fault systems. The division was also based on the data
analysis of the whole catalogue regarding the seismicity, depth and the study of earlier research work
(Khan et al., 2003, Khan et al., 2004, Shah et al. 2008 etc.). The 18 seismic zones are polygons while
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons, as were required to be used in EZ-FRISK, were described
in the next sub-section and shown in the Figure 5-5 too.

5.5.1 Seismic source zones:

There are overall 18 area zones defined for this study, as described in the following: Zone 1: This zone
mainly covered the Chinese territories near the Pakistani border. Pamir and Kunlun Mountains were
part of this zone. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 36.2 75.8
36.2 78.0 Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 38.0 78.0 38.0 75.8 36.2 75.8 Zone 2: This zone mostly comprised of the
border area of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and China. The coordinates of the corners of closed
polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 38.0 75.8 36.2 75.8 36.2 71.0 38.0 71.0 38.0 75.8 Zone 3: This zone
covered the area North Western Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region along with some areas of
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Being situated near the Hindu Kush region, this was the region of large
earthquakes. A few records of large earthquakes were found for this zone in the Historical Earthquake
catalogue too. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 38.0 71.0
37.0 71.0 37.0 66.5 38.0 66.5 38.0 71.0 Zone 4: This zone was entirely covering the Afghanistan region.
Several earthquakes with their epicenters in or around the Hindu Kush ranges had affected the Northern
areas of Pakistan. A few records of large historic earthquakes were found in the Historical Earthquake
data base. Large earthquakes of Hindu Kush are felt at great distances inside Pakistan. The coordinates
of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 37.0 71.0 36.2 71.0 35.6 69.0 35.5 67.5 37.0
67.5 37.0 71.0. Zone 5: This zone mainly consisted of Indian held Kashmir along with the neighboring
areas. It was not a densely populated zone but some seismic activity was present. The coordinates of the
corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 36.2 78.0 32.0 78.0 36.2 74.5 36.2 78.0 Zone 6:
Mostly the Kashmir areas and some parts of the Gilgit region, the KP (Khyber Pakhtoonkhah) and upper
Punjab are situated in this zone. The zone was always quite active as it covers the Eurasian - Indian
plates boundary. Some part of the northern region of Punjab was included in this zone as it was always
affected by the earthquakes of Kashmir region. Coordinates of this zone were: The coordinates of the
corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 32.0 78.0 31.0 76.0 35.0 72.0 36.2 74.5 32.0 78.0
Zone 7: This was quite a small zone with respect to area. Chitral was the important city of this zone. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 36.2 74.5 35.0 72.0 35.0 71.2
36.2 71.0 36.2 74.5 Zone 8: According to the instrumental seismic data catalogue this zone seemed to be
quite active, especially parts of KP. One of the important aspects of this zone was that it included two
provincial capitals: Peshawar and Lahore, the country capital of Islamabad. The coordinates of the
corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 35.0 72.0 . (o N) Long. (o E) 31.0 76.0 31.2 71.3
35.0 71.2 35.0 72.0 Zone 9: Some areas of Baluchistan, western Punjab, and most areas of the KP were
included in this zone. The seismic activity in this zone is quite low as compared to that in the neighboring
zones i.e. Zones-12 and 13 in the south and 7 in the north. The coordinates of the corners of closed
polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 35.0 71.2 31.2 71.3 31.0 68.0 31.3 67.8 35.0 71.2 Zone 10: This zone
covered mainly the Afghan Eastern border region with Pakistan. Many active faults were located in this
zone, which had generated significant earthquakes in the past as well as during the recent few decades.
The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 36.2 71.0 35.0 71.2 31.3
67.8 30.1 65.0 31.2 64.0 35.6 69.0 36.2 71.0 Zone 11: This was the largest zone with reference to area,
but it had the least seismicity. It covered most parts of plain areas of Punjab and Sindh including the
western areas of India. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E)
31.0 76.0 24.2 70.8 24.2 67.3 25.0 66.7 27.8 68.2 Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 28.6 69.3 31.2 71.3 31.0 76.0 Zone
12: Northern Baluchistan and some areas of Punjab were included in this zone. This zone was the region
of a large number of earthquakes with higher magnitudes. The coordinates of the corners of closed
polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 31.2 71.3 28.6 69.3 31.0 68.0 31.2 71.3 Zone 13: Zone 12 and Zone
13 were similar with reference to the geological and the seismological features. This zone contains
Quetta and Sibi area of Baluchistan. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N)
Long. (o E) 28.6 69.3 27.8 68.2 30.1 65.0 31.3 67.8 31.0 68.0 28.6 69.3 Zone 14: The western Baluchistan
was the main constituent of this zone. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N)
Long. (o E) 30.1 65.0 27.2 63.0 28.0 60.0 32.0 60.0 31.2 64.0 30.1 65.0 Zone 15: The Central Brahui
range, Siahan range, Kirthar range and the Central Makran mountain ranges run through this zone. Only
four earthquakes were found in this zone in the ISC catalogue having M ≥ 6.0. The coordinates of the
corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 27.8 68.2 25.0 66.7 27.2 63.0 30.1 65.0 27.8 68.2
Zone 16: The area of this zone was mostly of India (Run of Kutch) but earthquakes of this zone have
affected even upto the largest city of Pakistan, Karachi. The coordinates of the corners of closed
polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 24.2 70.8 23.0 72.0 23.0 67.3 24.2 67.3 24.2 70.8 Zone 17: This zone
consisted of the active subduction zone just off the Makran coast which generated the 1945 earthquake
of magnitude 8.2 Ms a and a tsunami was generated by this huge earthquake which struck the Makran
coast. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 23.0 67.3 23.0 61.5
27.2 63.0 25.0 66.7 24.2 67.3 23.0 67.3 Zone 18: This zone primarily covered the portion of South
Eastern Iran. The instrumental seismic data catalogue contained three earthquakes each having M ≥ 6.0
whereas the historical earthquake database had no significant reports from this zone. The coordinates
of the corners of closed polygons were: Lat. (o N) Long. (o E) 27.2 63.0 23.0 61.5 23.0 60.0 28.0 60.0 27.2
63.

5.5.2 Zones of high seismic activity in Pakistan:

It was observed with the analysis of these source zones, their locations and general seismic activity of
region that most of the (large) earthquakes had occurred in the following regions: ¾ Hindu Kush region.
¾ Kashmir and the Northern Areas of Pakistan. ¾ Northern part of Baluchistan. ¾ Coastal regions of
Pakistan around the Makran area. ¾ The south-eastern area of Pakistan near the Run of Kutch. Figure 5-
6 expressed the seismicity of the study area with the 18 zones laid on it. These zones of high seismic
activity in Pakistan could very easily be recognized from this figure. Seismicity of the region and the 18
source zones.

5.5.3 Zones and hypo central depths:

The focal depths of earthquakes vary from the shallow to deep in the whole study area, as shown in
Figure 5-7 for all of the 18 source zones defined in this study. It was found that from north to south the
depths and mechanism of earthquakes were different in different seismic zones. Generally the seismicity
of Pakistan was considered to be shallow and intermediate depths. This range of focal depths made the
choice, about ground-motion models in the hazard calculations, a trivial one. 104 0 50 100 150 200 250
300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source Zones Depth Range (km) Figure 5-7. Distribution
of focal depths in the 18 zones In Figure 5-7 all of the 18 zones were analyzed, because it was necessary
to find out the depths of earthquakes occurring in each seismic zone, it is one of the important input
parameters of EZ-FRISK. The histogram analysis clearly demonstrated the deep seismicity in the Hindu
Kush region comprising Zone 2, 4 and 7. But it was noted that seismicity of this region has a depth range
and most of the earthquakes are shallow. This information was kept in mind as it will be helpful while
running the SHA software. This region was given more importance since the Hindu Kush seismicity was
contributing significantly to the hazard for locations outside of this region too. There were also some
other zones with some deep seismicity, notably zones 1, 3, 9 and 14. However, these zones had lower
seismicity and were therefore contributing less to the hazard, and therefore had not been treated as for
the Hindu Kush zones. Shallow depth earthquakes are responsible for more hazard, so having more of
the zones in shallow depths had resulted on conservative hazard results.

5.5.4 Zones and focal mechanisms:

Much of the northern and southern parts of Pakistan are situated in high seismicity areas with a history
of large and damaging earthquakes. Figure 5-8 showing the Harvard CMT solutions and some Focal
Mechanism Solutions determined at MSSP in the Pakistani region between 1977 and 2010. Figure 5-8.
Focal mechanisms from the Harvard CMT solutions. The earthquake focal mechanisms in Figure 5-8
provided the description of the mode of faulting of each single earthquake and implicitly thereby also
reflected on the orientation regarding causative stress-tensor. Because of this, the focal mechanism
solutions are used to reveal the orientation (not the relative magnitudes) of the stresses in the crust.
Figure 5-8 was also compared with Figure 5-9, which was from Verma et al. (1979) and they were found
in agreement. Figure 5-9. Orientation of nodal planes and directions of P and T axes for 31 earthquakes
(from Verma et al., 1979)

5.6 CONCLUSIONS:

Following points were concluded from this chapter: ¾ Seismo-tectonic modeling has to be done keeping
in view different tectonic features of the region, associated seismicity and their source mechanism. ¾
More than 50 significant faults have been considered throughout Pakistan. ¾ These faults contribute
towards allocation of source zones and determination of deterministic seismic hazard assessment at
different locations. ¾ A total of 18 source zones have been allocated. These zones had covered some of
the areas of the neighboring countries. ¾ Source zones present the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard
assessment determination.

5.7 SUMMARY:

In this study, the seismo-tectonic model was presented and on the basis of this model, deterministic and
probabilistic seismic hazard were estimated in next chapters. Seismo tectonic model was proposed
keeping in view different tectonic features of the study region, associated seismicity and their source
mechanism. Tectonic setup and seismo tectonic overview of the study area were highlighted for this
purpose. Overall more than 50 significant faults were considered throughout Pakistan while 18 have
been described. These faults also contributed towards the allocation of source zones and determination
of deterministic seismic hazard assessment at different locations later on. A total of 18 source zones
were identified. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment determination is based heavily on these
source zones. Their analyses with reference to depth and focal mechanism were also presented.