BCG Live COVID-19 - Impactos No Consumo Do Brasileiro PDF

SÃO PAULO, APRIL 8TH, 2020
Daniel Azevedo Flávia Takey

Managing Director and Partner Managing Director and Partner
São Paulo São Paulo
BCG team
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Régis Nieto Flávia Gemignani
Managing Director and Partner Associate Director
São Paulo São Paulo
1
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
Brief update: global cases at ~1.4M, with brazil at ~14k

Cumulative number of cases, by number of days since 50th case (log scale) Data as of 07 Apr
1,000,000 Cases double

…every 2 days …every 3 days
every day USA
Spain Italy
100,000 Germany
France Iran China
UK
Brazil
10,000 South Korea
Japan

1,000
100
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Number of days1
1. Number of days after exceeding 50 confirmed cases, 2. Average daily growth of past 4 days 3. March 26; Source: John Hopkins CSSE, BCG analysis 2
Main questions we will address today
Consumer Sentiment
How is covid-19 shifting consumer sentiment

and habits in Brazil and around the world?
Consumption Shifts
How shifting consumers habits are already

impacting consumption?

Leading through the crisis
How companies should lead through the short-

term crisis and potential future outlooks?
3
1 2 3
Consumer Consumption Leading through

Sentiment Shifts the Crisis
4
1 2 3

5
Survey results from different countries included in this document

were captured in different stages of the covid-19 development
USA 2, UK,
China, Italy
Confirmed coronavirus cases (K) & France Brazil
368,196 Stabilized:
1,000,000
132,547 China
82,698 Still evolving:

74,390 Italy
10,000
14,034 US
France
100
Brazil

Fielding
dates
20 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 3 5 7 10
Jan Feb Mar Apr

First case School BRA first SP & RJ close all
in Brazil closures in death non-essential
SP and RJ commercial
activities
Human to human New cases overseas US-Europe National World reaches
transmission exceed new cases in Travel ban lockdown in 1M cases
confirmed in China China for first time announced FR; EU closes confirmed
borders
Italy imposes
Possible wave 2 of COViD-19 outbreak in China still not confirmed national lockdown
Sources: European Centre for Disease prevention & Control (ECDC) Reports; Ministerio da Saúde; BCG analysis 6
As expected, Brazilians have a very negative association
to the virus: 'death' as the most frequent word
Top words that come to mind when Brazilians think about the virus
(Free response, unaided associations)
61% Isolation Hygiene

Caution Family
COVID 73%
Death
believe that
the worst is
Unemployment Worry Changed their
still ahead
virus Risk habits due
Fear
to covid19

Pandemic Disease People
68%
Contagion
Economy
Quarantine 67%
are only leaving
believe that Health their homes to
do the essential
there will be
a recession
Question text: “You mentioned that you are aware of a global virus outbreak. What comes to mind when you think about the virus?”
Similar responses categorized together for visual simplicity. 7
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey – BR: Mar 31–Apr 2, 2020 (N = 1,255, weighted)
Brazilians are actively reducing out-of-home activities;

still, working remotely is not an option for many
Respondents who have reduced Change in work pattern among respondents (%)
activity frequency due to COVID-19 (%)
100% working
from home
48% 42% 41% Most days working
3% 5% 4% 5% 3% 53%
63% from home
Some days working
-52% 19% 20% from home
-77% -74% -76% -70% 18% Nothing has changed

15%
14% 14%
-49% 12% 17% 10%
-65% 7% 25%
-74% -69% -72% 22% 22% 25%
13%
Going to Eating at Visiting Leaving Public
public restaurants friends the house transport Brazil Class A Class B Class C Class D/E
spaces & family for other
reason
Lower classes are less
likely to work fully
Frequency increase Frequency decrease remotely
Note: Question text: “In the last week, how often did you do the following activities?", compared to "In your normal weekly routine (before Coronavirus), how often did you do the
following activities" and “Given coronavirus developments, has your remote work dynamic changed?". Excludes Unemployed, Students. Retired, and Homemakers
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 31–April 2, 2020 (N = 1255, weighted) 8
In Brazil, changes in behavior are already at levels of

countries at more advanced stages of COVID-19
# Cases on last day of survey 6,9k 3,8k 24,0k 80,8k
% of respondents who have canceled/ delayed plans
Domestic International Local leisure Restaurant Day-to-day in-
travel travel activities outings store purchases

95% 94% 94% 94% 93% 93% 98% 97% 98% 98% 97% 98%
81% 89%
70% 79%
65% 68% 62%
47%
Note: Question text: “Have you already canceled plans or reduced your spend in any of the following areas due to the coronavirus?” Exclude respondents who had no plans
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, Brazil (Match 30 – April 1; n=1255); China (March 12-16), US (March 12-16), Italy (March 12-16) 9
Customers in Brazil and other EM, are more likely to de-

average consumption behavior across categories
Average increase or decrease across Average increase or decrease across
top 10 winners (%) top 10 losers (%)
13 9 8 9 12 8
23 22 23 22 21 19
26 30 27
39
46
55 39 40 44
30 52
21 35 52
34
52 58 59 60 60

65
45
25 38
51 49 52 52 47
39 52 36 39
16 20 16 22 20 19 17 18 14
Brazil India China Italy France Canada US UK Germany Brazil India China Italy France Canada US UK Germany
Planning to spend more (average %) Planning to spend the same (average %) Planning to spend the less (average %)
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer sentiment survey March 27-30, 2020 (N = 2,928 Canada; 2,916 China; 2,985 France; 3085 Germany; 2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US), unweighted;
representative within ±3% of census demographics; and March 23-26 2020 (N = 2,106 India); representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2 (cities with populations greater than
0.5 million) population in India; March 30-April 1 2020 (N = 1,255 Brazil weighted). Note: Question text; “How do you expect your spend to change in the next six months across the following
areas?” Charts exclude results for childcare, Children’s clothing; and baby/child food 10
Winners and losers in Brazil largely follow global trends
Winners: self-care and health Losers: discretionary categories

categories better ranked deprioritized
4%
Fresh & organic food 2% 51% 24% 20% Luxury & fashion 40% 18% 24% 14% 4%
5%
Household care 2% 54% 22% 16% Fashion accessories 32% 21% 31% 10% 5%
9%
Preventive healthcare 3% 47% 22% 20% Business travel 27% 28% 28% 8% 9%
Streaming 8% 8% 39% 23% 22% Public transportation 30% 17% 37% 11% 5%
Education Shoes

5% 11% 41% 25% 18% 28% 21% 32% 16% 3%
Child care 10% 9% 39% 23% 19% Toys and games 23% 28% 28% 16% 5%
5%
Fabric care 6% 59% 17% 13% Personal travel 37% 16% 24% 13% 9%
Savings 11% 13% 34% 25% 18% Home décor 30% 22% 24% 17% 7%
Entertainment 12% 15% 33% 26% 15% Feminine clothes 21% 22% 40% 12% 4%
Vitamins and supplements 11% 9% 46% 18% 15% Cars 25% 21% 36% 10% 9%
A lot less Somewhat less About the same Somewhat more A lot more
BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: March 31–April 2 (N=1255; Weighted) 11

Note: Question text: “ How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Excludes categories with N=100
However, it is paramount to recall that the consumer

sentiment before COVID-19 already showed strong
expectations of reduced spending
% of consumers willing to increase/ decrease spending
42%
57% 57% 67% 72% 73% 72%
76% 81%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019
Intention to decrease spending Sustain spending leve Intention to increase spending
Nota: Respostas a pergunta "Você está disposto a aumentar ou diminuir os gastos nos próximos 12 meses?"; Antes de 2015, as opções dos entrevistados não eram relativas a sua renda
Fonte: BCG Consumer Sentiment; Análise BCG 12
Hence, the comparison of 'current' vs 'before COVID-19'

results, shows an actual improvement for 21/31 categories
Net variation CS Apr ’20
Decrease Pre-covid Increase pre-covid
50
Decrease in Apr'2020 Increase in Apr'2020

Fresh & organic food
Streaming
25 Child care 9 categories are expected to
Products and services for pets grow in the following 6 months
Vitamins and suplements Skin care Entertainment
Food delivery
Packaged food Electrical Household Appliances
0

Beverage Alcohol Mobile Electronics Alternative transportation
OTC drugs Kids clothing
Athletic equipment Electronics Insurance
Restaurants Makeup / Perfume
Men’s clothes Cars
-25
Home décor
Toys and games Personal travel
Alcoholic beverages Feminine clothes Shoes Business travel Public transportation
Fashion accessories
-50
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Increase since pre-covid CS Decrease since pre-covid CS Stable since pre-covid CS Net variation CS Pre-covid
BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: March 31–April 2 '20 (N=1255; Weighted); Consumer Sentiment pre-covid Dec '19 (N= 2842, weighted) 13
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Excludes categories with N=100
Expectations on consumption across channels in the short

term already highlight the will of consumers to save
Why are they reducing spend?2
...to save ... spend in ... migrate to
Channel Overall willing to increase spend1
money other retailer online
Atacado e atacarejo 29% 16% 35% 16% 4% 46% 2% 3%
Hypermarket 16% 16% 43% 20% 6% 53% 12% 10%

Essential
Supermarket 17% 19% 42% 19% 4% 47% 7% 17%
Neighborhood supermarket 11% 20% 41% 21% 6% 32% 7% 4%
Drugstore 6% 21% 51% 16% 5% 29% 12% 3%

Convenience store 39% 18% 31% 8% 4% 22% 15% 16%
Non-essential
Monobrand clothing store 33% 26% 23% 14% 4% 39% 3% 8%
Department store 29% 30% 22% 16% 2% 33% 11% 9%
Electronics store 20% 23% 26% 18% 13% 24% 11% 11%
~10-25% say that will spend in

A lot less Somewhat less About the same Somewhat more A lot more other retailer or migrate to online
BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: March 31–April 2 (N=1255; Weighted);
Note: Question text: 1. “In the following month, how much are you going to spend in the following channels (online + in store purchases)"?; 14
2. You mentioned that you were going to spend less, what do you plan to do with the money?"
Looking ahead, even though Brazilians are alarmed about

the global economic and health impacts of COVID-19…
94% 86%
believe the world
92%
believe that there will is in serious
95%
be a recession danger

have changed their
are avoiding public
places 82% daily lifestyle due to
the virus
believe the worst
impacts are ahead
15
BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: March 31–April 2 (N=1255; Weighted);
… many see it as a … and plan to resume spending
temporary setback… in short/medium term
Estimate of how long temporary
~12% reduction will last (%)
Reasons given for reducing spending (%) Didn't
Know1 A few 1-3 4-6 7-12 >12
Reducint temporarily weeks months months months months
until coronavirus 48% Domestic
passes 2% 19% 39% 19% 8%
Travel
International
Planning on reducing 0% 11% 23% 31% 19%
Travel
permanently even after 30%
Local Leisure

coronavirus passes 8% 41% 31% 6% 2%
Activity
Day-to-day In-
Saving more, in case of 16% store 16% 43% 26% 4% 0%
recession shopping
Going to
9% 43% 27% 9% 2%
restaurants
Other 6%
Taking Public
13% 40% 25% 8% 2%
Transport
1. Didn’t know Answers: Domestic Travel – 13%; International travel & Going to restaurants – 11%; Local Leisure
Activity & Day-to-day shopping; 12%; Tanking public transport – 14% 16
BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: Note: Question text: “ Why did you reduce spending on XXX?” and "How long do you think you will do this
March 31–April 2 (N=1255; Weighted) [reduce spending] for?"
1 2 3

17
Countries showed sustained uplift in non-durable sales after initial

outbreak, while Brazil showed an earlier and shorter uplift
Non-durable goods
Global - % Sales Change1 after 1st Case Confirmed Brazil - % Sales Change2 after 1st Case Confirmed
(vs. year ago - Weeks after 1st Case Confirmed) (vs. month ago - Weeks after 1st Case Confirmed)
US 53.3% Higher consumption intensity period has

France started before the 3rd week after 1st Case
France and UK have started higher consumption 47.5%
Italy
intensity period 5 weeks after 1st Case
UK
38.7% 22.5%
18.6% 14.8% Hiper/Super

7.9% 8.2%
5.7% /Proximity
10.1%
6.4%
Higher consumption intensity US was the last to began -12.7%
period in Italy began 3 weeks higher consumption intensity -16.2% Drugstore
after 1st Case period: 6 weeks after 1st Case
1st to 3th Week

1st Week 3rd Week 5th Week 7th Week 4th Week 5th Week
(average growth)
1. US, Italy, France, and UK: Sales change vs. year ago; Data includes: Grocery, Drugstores, Mass, Club, Dollar and DeCA retailers
2. Brazil: March/20 and April/20 vs. Feb 20; Does not include C&C
Note: 1st Case Confirmed – USA: Jan 21; France: Jan 23; Italy: Jan 30; UK: Jan 30; Brazil: Feb 26
Note: Higher intensity consumption - Sales Change (%) >= 5%
Source: IRI POS data Week Ending March 22, 2020; Cielo - Impacto do COVID-19 no Varejo Brasileiro 18
In China, fresh and storable essentials were 1st categories

with spike in demand, with fresh sustaining its growth
[Avg. weekly y.o.y growth in 8 post-CNY weeks]
Initial outbreak CNY Virus turning point
Weekly sales % Fresh & perishables [up ~80%]
change y.o.y • Significantly higher due to stock-up & home cooking needs
Stage I Stage II Stage III
Stock-up Stabilization Adapting to new normal
200
Storable essentials – Edibles [up ~25%]
• Sales jump during stock-up period, gradually return
to normal but remained higher than last year
100
Storable essentials - non-Edibles [up ~10%]

• Sales jump at the beginning of outbreak, quickly
subsiding and returned to modest y.o.y sales
0
Discretionary - Edibles [up ~10%]
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • Gradual drop in stock-up period, gradually return
to normal and remained higher than last year
-100 2019 2/5-2/11 2/19-2/25 3/5-3/11 3/19-3/25 4/2-4/8 Discretionary – non-Edibles [down ~10%]
2020 1/25-1/31 2/8-2/14 2/22-2/28 3/7-3/13 3/21-3/27 • Clear drop since Week 0, and staying at y.o.y sales
decline reflecting demand for non-essentials
Note: analysis based on Q1 2020 offline & O2O sales data of leading retailers in China with national coverage
Source: Retail sales index, BCG analysis 19
Top winners categories in Brazil follow worldwide

trends: food and cleaning related product Non-durable goods
Categories Sales Change Top sub-categories Sales Change

(% - Week ending Mar 8 vs. Mar 1 – AS and C&C) (% - Week ending Mar 1 vs. Feb 23 – AS and C&C)
Hand sanitizers 623%
Isopropyl alcohol 85%

31%
25%
21%

Cleaning
18% products
58%
13% 11% 10%
Liquid soap 33%
Food Hygiene Home Care Non Medicine Perishable Fresh Food
Commodities1 & Beauty perishable (Processed)3
foods2
Softener 30%
Bandage 29%
1. Food Commodities: Rice, Bean, Coffee, Sugar, Flour, etc.
2. Non perishable foods: canned goods, biscuits, cookies, noodle, pasta, etc.
3. Perishable (Processed): Includes refrigerated products & frozen products (yogurt, cheese, etc.)
Source: Nielsen – Impacto da Covid-19 nas vendas de produtos de giro rápido no Brasil e ao redor do mundo 20
In the other hand, durable goods and services in Brazil is

experiencing significant decrease in sales vs. pre-Covid period
Durable goods - % Sales Change1 after 1st Case Confirmed Services - % Sales Change1 after 1st Case Confirmed
(vs. month ago - Weeks after 1st Case Confirmed) (vs. month ago - Weeks after 1st Case Confirmed)
-2.2%
-7.6%
-11.7%
-17.6%
-21.3% -27.7% Construction
material
-42.5% Automotive
-41.9%
-59.7% services

-67.4%
Bar &
Furniture & -75.6% Restaurant
-75.9%
-83.7% Appliance -79.9%
Turism &
Apparel Transport
-91.9% -88.2% -91.7% -92.4%
1st to 3th Week 1st to 3th Week
4th Week 5th Week 4th Week 5th Week
(average change) (average change)
1. Brazil: March/20 and April/20 vs. Feb 20

Note: 1st Case Confirmed in Brazil: Feb 26
Note: Higher intensity consumption - Sales Change (%) >= 5%
Source: Cielo - Impacto do COVID-19 no Varejo Brasileiro 21
Use of online grocery platforms growing significantly

during crisis in most European & American countries
Web traffic: Compared to baseline Sector zoom: Groceries
Change in normalized visits for 17 Mar—23 Mar vs. 27 Jan—2 Feb Change in normalized visits (7-day moving avg.)
Countries US
Sector / Country AE AU BR CA DE ES FR IN IT JP UK US Continent 60
CA
Accommodation & Hotels -65% -72% -80% -75% -81% -84% -80% -78% -86% -32% -78% -70% 40
BR
Air Travel -72% -52% -51% -59% -45% -65% -58% -46% -75% -41% -52% -50%
Americas 20
MX
Automotive Industry -30% -34% -41% -21% -17% -68% -64% -24% -63% -6% -46% -24%
0
Banking Credit & Lending -28% -9% -20% -15% -16% -37% -29% -35% -24% 0% -17% -20%
-20
Beauty & Cosmetics -17% -9% -33% -12% -2% -26% -36% -35% -33% -3% -17% -16%
UK
Beverages 32% 7% -33% 0% 2% -24% -25% 21% -4% -16% 23% -4% 150
FR
Car Rentals -61% -69% -60% -64% -62% -80% -75% -36% -83% -9% -63% -63%

100
IT
Consumer Electronics -27% 5% -10% -6% -7% -14% -21% -25% 2% 5% -8% -2% Europe 50 GE
Fashion & Apparel -27% -21% -25% -25% -17% -49% -45% -58% -45% -7% -34% -22%
0
Furniture -22% -21% -28% -28% -15% -48% -37% -43% -47% 14% -32% -21% SP
Groceries 34% 10% 36% 55% 31% -4% 90% -3% 70% 3% 134% 56% -50
100
Insurance -26% -32% -36% -22% -18% -39% -36% -18% -34% 8% -40% -23%
Jewelry & Luxury -43% -31% -28% -50% -24% -64% -40% -55% -52% -12% -34% -30% 50
JP
Marketplace -28% -13% -23% -9% -8% -26% -20% -41% -23% -1% -11% -5% MEA 0
IN
Medicine 11% 29% 28% 4% -14% -3% 15% 16% 49% -4% -5% -4% -50
Restaurants & Delivery -29% -30% 3% -20% -8% -57% -62% -52% -27% -13% -31% -9%
-100
Telecommunications -10% -7% -7% -16% 2% -22% -10% 36% 2% 1% -10% -10%
Jan 17 Feb 10 Mar 5 Mar 29
Week commencing (2020)

Source: SimilarWeb data (www.similarweb.com) ; BCG analysis 22
In Brazil, lower starting point in E-commerce and growth

limited due to low penetration among lower classes
Online Groceries1 Market Share Brazil - Only higher income classes already buy Share of Population
(2018) or plan to start buying online (March 2020) per income
(2018)
HH income
11.2%
< minimum wage 17% 13%
5.9% 11%
1-2 minimum wage 35%

4.1%
2-5 minimum wage 58% 49%

0.9%
China US Western Brazil >5 minimum wage 80% 27%

Europe
1. Alcoholic Drinks, Beauty and Personal Care, Consumer Health, Home Care, Packaged Foods, Pet Care and Tissue & Hygiene
Sources: 2. BCG Marketing, Sales, and Pricing; 3. Earnest Research; 4. Euromonitor; 5. BTG Pactual & FSBPesquisa: Os brasileiros e o coronavírus: visões sobre a pandemia e seus
impactos econômicos; 6. IBGE Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar 2017/18 BCG analysis 23
1 2 3

24
Globally, consumer companies facing different phases of Covid-19 crisis
Immediate, Phase 1 Short term, Phase 2 Medium term, Phase 3

(Hysteria) (Restriction/Adaption) (New Normal)
Approx.
duration Weeks ~0-3 Weeks ~4-12 Months ~3-18
Post outbreak
• Consumers adapting to new

• Panicked stock piling of durables • Restrictions on movement,
Description behaviors; continued usage of
and health items dining out, and gatherings
ecommerce, dining-in
• Demand for ecommerce subsiding • Long term shift to omnichannel

Expected but remains elevated vs history delivery accelerated by ~24mths
• Initial spike in specific goods due
changes/

to stock piling • Consumers staying in at home due • Purchases of in-home entertainment
activities to restrictions and policies and dining goods remain high
• Build trust – ensure availability

• Understand new trends
Example • Pallet drops on core items • Adjust space to new demand mix
• Accelerate ecommerce capabilities
reactions + • Limit purchase on select items • Continue to ensure supply
• Accelerate focus on prepared foods
learnings • Communicate availability and • Targeted promos, leverage loyalty
and in-home cooking, H&W options
(to-date) online offer • Continue to drive e-commerce
• Pilot stores to test new concepts
• Invest in delivery capacity
25
Companies should consider a two-pronged action plan to

address crisis
Immediate response: Manage the crisis Near-term: Winning in the "new" normal

Protect your Protect the Prepare for the rebound Launch new
people & community business (and for recession) steady state
• Ensure central coordination • Ensure supply of critical • Gather intel to be first • Reset overall portfolio
by crisis management office products mover in rebounding market strategy
• Enact people health and • Prepare operational • Plan for longer term • Embed resilience in
safety plan, and step-up contingencies changes in consumer organization, supply chain
communications • Tighten cash management behavior & processes
and control costs • Prepare operations, • Invest in E-comm, AI
marketing and product and tactical M&A
range for the new normal
26
Looking forward, set of potential shifts according to

the crisis' length
LENGTH OF TRANSITION FROM ADAPTATION TO RECOVERY
Few, but select category Category shift Significant category shifts away
consumption shifts (e.g. meal kits) to staples from discretionary products
Customers trade back up Category shift Significant trading down to value

to leading brands to value products/discounters
Ecommerce gains large share of
Limited increase in online Brick-and-mortar

grocery at expense of all other
penetration sustained to ecommerce
formats
Proximity showing strong Hypermarket Permanent decline of share of
growth with increased traffic to Proximity large formats
Cash & Carry: Preferred channel C&C Channel Potential decline in traffic due
for stock up, but hit by fall in B2B impact to fall in B2C and B2B sales
Minimal retail failures, mild Increased Best capitalized players vertically

consolidation consolidation & horizontally consolidate
27
27
Executive summary: key impacts for

Brazilian Consumers and Companies
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
• In Brazil, changes in behavior already at levels of countries at more advanced stages
• Customers in Brazil more likely to de-average consumption behavior across categories
• Most consumers expect to spend less across categories, but expectation improved vs. pre-covid
• Consumers alarmed, but see negative consequences as temporary and plan to resume spending soon
CONSUMPTION SHIFTS
• Brazil showed an earlier and shorter uplift in non-durable sales after initial outbreak

• Stock pilling on food and cleaning related products, at supermarkets and drugstores
• E-commerce with +20% growth rate in Brazil, but still concentrated in more affluent classes
LEADING THROUGH THE CRISIS

• Globally, companies facing three phases: Hysteria, Restriction and New normal
• Firms need two action plan: manage the crisis and prepare for the new normal
• New normal expected to shift up online, and neighborhood supermarkets/proximity, C&C more
uncertain
28
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly
evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior
to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a
particular point in time. This presentation is not intended to: (i)
constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the
same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation
of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own
assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using
this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws

and guidance in your area, particularly the most recent advice
issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before
making any decision.
29

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SÃO PAULO, APRIL 8TH, 2020

Daniel Azevedo Flávia Takey

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Brief update: global cases at ~1.4M, with brazil at ~14k

1,000,000 Cases double

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

How is covid-19 shifting consumer sentiment

How shifting consumers habits are already

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

How companies should lead through the short-

Consumer Consumption Leading through

Consumer Consumption Leading through

Survey results from different countries included in this document

82,698 Still evolving:

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Jan Feb Mar Apr

61% Isolation Hygiene

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Brazilians are actively reducing out-of-home activities;

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

In Brazil, changes in behavior are already at levels of

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Customers in Brazil and other EM, are more likely to de-

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Winners and losers in Brazil largely follow global trends

Winners: self-care and health Losers: discretionary categories

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey: March 31–April 2 (N=1255; Weighted) 11

However, it is paramount to recall that the consumer

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Hence, the comparison of 'current' vs 'before COVID-19'

Decrease in Apr'2020 Increase in Apr'2020

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Expectations on consumption across channels in the short

Hypermarket 16% 16% 43% 20% 6% 53% 12% 10%

Supermarket 17% 19% 42% 19% 4% 47% 7% 17%

Neighborhood supermarket 11% 20% 41% 21% 6% 32% 7% 4%

Drugstore 6% 21% 51% 16% 5% 29% 12% 3%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Monobrand clothing store 33% 26% 23% 14% 4% 39% 3% 8%

Department store 29% 30% 22% 16% 2% 33% 11% 9%

~10-25% say that will spend in

Looking ahead, even though Brazilians are alarmed about

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Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Consumer Consumption Leading through

Countries showed sustained uplift in non-durable sales after initial

US 53.3% Higher consumption intensity period has

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1st to 3th Week

In China, fresh and storable essentials were 1st categories

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Top winners categories in Brazil follow worldwide

Categories Sales Change Top sub-categories Sales Change

Hand sanitizers 623%

Isopropyl alcohol 85%

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In the other hand, durable goods and services in Brazil is

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1. Brazil: March/20 and April/20 vs. Feb 20

Use of online grocery platforms growing significantly

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Week commencing (2020)