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July 2014
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Contents
SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................3
5.1 Indicators for the solvency and capitalization of the banking system .........................29
5.2 Movements and quality of the own funds of the banking system ..............................29
5.3 Developments and structure of capital requirements and available capital of the
banking system ....................................................................................................30
5.4 Stress test of the resilience of the banking system to hypothetical shocks .................32
Part 2 Structural features, significant balance sheet changes and efficiency and
profitability of the banking system ...........................................................................34
2. Banks’ activities.......................................................................................................36
3.1 Movement and structure of income and expenses of the banking system and
profitability and efficiency indicators ......................................................................46
3.2 Movements in interest rates and the interest rate spread .........................................50
ANNEXES ...................................................................................................................52
2
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
SUMMARY
In the first quarter of 2014, the banking system retained the high and stable liquidity
and solvency position. The total assets of the banking system grew on both the quarterly and
annual basis, although with different intensity. Despite the lower quarterly growth rate of bank
loans, on annual level lending accelerated, which was primarily registered in the credit support
to the corporate sector. Also, as of March 2014, monthly changes in the lending activity show
acceleration, mainly with the corporate sector, which remained in the subsequent months. This
indicates gradual improvement of the perceptions of domestic banks about the risk profile of
the credit demand. Denarization in the main banking activities continued also in this quarter.
Denar long-term deposits of the household sector were the generator of the growth of the
deposit activity whereby the trend of positive changes continued, in the currency, but also in
the maturity profile of the banks' sources of funds. The increased interest in long-term savings
is on the one hand an indicator of public confidence in the banks, but it is also associated with
the higher interest rates on long-term deposits.
In the first quarter of 2014, the banking system registered profit, thus interrupting the
several-year trend of achieving negative financial results at this time of the year. The main
factors for the increased earnings were the reduced interest expenses due to the downward
trend in the deposit interest rates, and the lower impairment of financial assets (loans). On the
other hand, based on the changes in the regulations on foreclosures in 2013, the impairment of
non-financial assets increased and nearly equaled the amount of the impairment of financial
assets. Indicators of profitability of banks have improved significantly, and the operational
capability of banks of generating revenues that cover the costs of operation has increased, too.
The growth of the domestic economy, and further positive economic trends in the Euro-
zone as our most important trading partner, had a favorable impact on the quality of the loan
portfolio of the banking system in the first quarter of 2014. On a quarterly basis, non-
performing loans decreased. Their annual growth slowed significantly and for the first time
since 2011 they have registered a single-digit growth rate of 1.2%. The small annual growth of
non-performing loans is primarily based also on the collections of non-performing loans. As of
31 March 2014, the share of non-performing in total loans was reduced to 11.1%. However,
after the cut-off date of this Report, i.e. at the end of May 2013, the rate of non-performing
loans was back to the average level for 2013 (11.9%). Credit risk remains the most common
risk in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia. However, the constant supervision by
the National Bank, good credit risk management systems of banks and full coverage of the non-
performing loans with total impairment, reduce the risk of their default for the solvency of
banks.
High and stable solvency and liquidity of the banking system are the pillars of its stability
and reliability, which contribute to the resilience of the system in the simulation of extreme
liquidity and credit shocks. As of 31 March 2014, the capital adequacy ratio was twice the
legally prescribed minimum and equaled 16.6%. Liquidity continues to strengthen, which is
mainly due to the increased investments of banks in treasury bills, which beside being low-risk,
also represent an appropriate liquidity management instrument. Nearly one-third of the banks'
assets are liquid assets that provide high coverage of short-term bank liabilities. It is
particularly significant that the Macedonian banks hardly depend on the use of loans from their
parent entities, whose amount decreased in the first quarter of 2014.
3
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
4
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
The growth of the domestic economy and further positive economic trends in
the Euro zone as our most important trading partner, in the first quarter of 2014
contributed to the improvement of the banks' perception of the riskiness of the
corporate sector and its creditworthiness, as evidenced by the growth of the credit
exposure to this sector for the second consecutive quarter. The small annual growth
of non-performing loans is based on the collections of non-performing loans. Non-
performing loans to total loans ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points in the first
quarter, and was reduced to 11.1%. However, the upward movement of non-
performing loans after the cut-off date of this Report caused the rate of non-
performing loans in May 2014 to return to the average level for 2013 (11.9%). The
threat for the own funds of the banking system from the non-collection of non-
performing loans is minimal, given that these loans have high coverage with
allocated impairment (81.4% with their own and over 100% with total
impairment).
0
1.7
exposure (excluding the exposure to financial
0
institutions and the government) registered a
-4,000 -1
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 quarterly increase of Denar 5,023 million, or
Off-balance sheet items (left scale)
Other claims (left scale)
1.8% (2.7% as of 31 December 2013) and
Regular interest (left scale)
Non-performing loans (left scale)
contributed with 55.2% to the growth of the total
Regular loans (left scale)
Quarterly growth rate of total credit exposure (right scale) credit exposure. Guided by the more attractive
Source: NBRM's Credit Registry, based on data yields and wider offer of government securities,
submitted by banks. banks increased their credit exposure to the
Other claims, besides fees, commissions etc., also
include banks’ investments in CB and treasury
government (by Denar 3,753 million, or 9.6%)
bills and government bonds. with the investments in treasury bills and longer-
term government bonds.
1
The total credit exposure includes balance sheet (loans and deposits, financial leasing, payments made on the basis of given
guarantees, letters of credit, warrants and other off-balance sheet positions, interest, fees and commissions, investment in
securities and other financial instruments available for sale or held to maturity, etc.) and off-balance sheet claims (unused
irrevocable credit lines, unused irrevocable credits based on overdrafts and on credit cards, letters of credit, guarantees and other
contingent liabilities for the bank), which expose the bank to a credit risk.
5
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
-15,000 -20
and "electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning".
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
The intensification of lending to the corporate
sector points to improved banks' perceptions of
State (left scale)
Financial institutions (left scale)
Households (left scale)
Companies and other clients (left scale)
Companies and other clients - rate of change (right scale)
the riskiness of this segment, for a second
Households - rate of change (right scale)
Financial institutions - rate of change (right scale) consecutive quarter, but some of these changes
State - rate of change (right scale)
can be linked with the non-standard measures
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks.
taken by the monetary authorities3 to encourage
lending and with the utilization of the funds from
the EIB4. The slower growth of the credit
Chart 3 exposure to households (Denar 1,774 million or
Quarterly (top) and annual (bottom) 1.7%) results from the slower growth in
growth rate of non-performing loans consumer and housing loans.
in percentage
20 In the first quarter of 2014, the quality of
15 18.5 the loan portfolio significantly improved. The
10
quarterly growth rate of non-performing loans
has a negative value of 1.5%, which comes
13.6
5 2.5
-0.1 entirely from the reduction of non-performing
0
0.0
0.8
-1.5
-2.0
loans to companies. The reduction of these loans
-5
-4.8
reflects the improved performance of some of
-10
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
the customers in the activities "construction" and
Companies Households Non-financial entities
"other processing industry". Non-performing
45 loans to households remained at the same level,
40
35 31.4
and within their framework a downward
30 movement was registered in all loan products,
22.7
25
20
with the exception of non-performing residential
15 22.1
16.7
loans and overdrafts on current accounts.
10
1.6
5
The annual growth rate of non-
-1.6 0.0 1.2
0
-0.1
-5
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
performing loans slowed significantly and for the
first time since 2011 it is a single digit (1.2%).
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by
banks.
Repayments of non-performing loans have the
largest contribution to the slowdown in their
2
Hereinafter: companies.
3
The non-standard measures of the National Bank were aimed at encouraging lending for net exporters and producers of
electricity. On this basis, in the first quarter of 2014, banks placed another Denar 2,035 million, with the overall amount of these
loans (since the introduction of the measure in January 2013) as of March 2014 equaling Denar 9,030 million.
4
In the first quarter of 2014, Euro 6.3 million from the credit line from EIB for financing small and medium enterprises were placed
(the credit line is placed through MBPR AD Skopje).
6
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
8,000 5.0
conditions of customers, in order to facilitate the
6,000
4.5
settlement of their credit liabilities. The new
4,000 4.7
4.0
Decision on the credit risk management7 also
2,000
0 3.5
encourages timely restructuring of claims (before
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
non-performing
they get a non-performing status). But if the
past due
regular restructuring of credit liabilities of customers is
not realistically set, only a time delay of the
share in total loans to non-financial entities
5
Decision on Credit Risk Management ("Official Gazette of RM" no. 50/13 and 157/13), which is effective starting from
1 December 2013. Detailed processing of the changes introduced by this Decision is given in the Report on the risks in the banking
system in the Republic of Macedonia in 2013, pages 21-23.
6
Source: Credit Registry of the National Bank. In the analyses where the source for the data for loans is the Credit Registry, loans
to non-financial entities include loans to companies and households.
7
The Decision provides at least 30% impairment for non-performing credit exposures.
8
According to the Decision, if the bank has made restructuring of a certain claim, it is required to classify that claim in the same risk
category for at least another six months and during this period it may not generate income based on release of impairment that is
not result of collection of the claim.
7
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
13
written off claims completely refers to collections
11.9 11.5
11.1 from natural persons.
11
2012
2.8
2013
0 2.8% of the total non-performing loans as of 31
2006
Non-performing loans to non-financial entities on 31.3.2014 by period of
March 2014 were approved during 2013. Most of
approval (left scale)
Annual growth rate of the lending activity to non-financial entities (right scale) the loans (or 78.3%) approved during the
previous year that received a non-performing
Source: NBRM's Credit Registry, based on data
submitted by banks.
status by the end of the first quarter of 2014
refer to the sector "companies"9, more precisely
9
The average level of risk of these loans is 57.2%.
8
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
100 103.3
75
75,8
0
in the own funds of the banking system was
70
-0.3
-1.9
-5 further reduced. Thus, under assumption of full
non-collectability of non-performing loans, at the
-4.3
65 -10
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
Coverage of non-performing loans with total calculated impairment and special reserve (left
end of this quarter, own funds would decrease
scale)
Coverage of non-performing loans with total calculated impairment and special reserve for
non-performing loans (left scale)
by 10.8% (0.8 percentage points less compared
Non-performing loans, net of total calculated impairment / own funds (right scale)
to the assumed decrease at the end of 2013).
Non-performing loans, net of calculated impairment for non-performing loans / own funds
(right scale)
9
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
0
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 entities that are regularly paid off, are covered
Impairment losses / total credit exposure
Credit exposure covered with colateral / total credit exposure with own funds. Coverage of loans that are
90
Regulatory capital / total credit exposure
regularly repaid with impairment, or the level of
80
81.9 82.0
expected losses from these loans is usually set
70 relatively low, and at the end of the first quarter
60
50
of 2014 it was 2.1%.
40
10
2.1 2.1
0 system remained unchanged as a result of the
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
almost identical growth rate of impairment and
Source: NBRM's Credit Registry, based on data
submitted by banks.
of total credit exposure. In contrast, the average
risk level of regular loans has increased due to
Chart 10 the quarterly growth of impairment for them (by
Average risk level for the total credit Denar 630 million or 10.2%), given the increase
exposure and for regular loans of the impairment of exposures in risk category
in percentage "C regular" (by 21.2%), amid moderate increase
8 of the total regular loans (by Denar 4,767 million,
7 7.6 7.6 7.6 or 1.9%)
6
10
The analysis included non-performing loans, regular restructured loans, past due restructured loans and past due but
unrestructured loans overdue 61 to 90 days to non-financial entities. The analysis excludes prolonged loans because it is assumed
that the extension of the maturity of these loans is not a consequence of the worsening financial condition of the customers (which
is consistent with the regulatory requirements in this area).
10
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
3.0
2.9
willingness of banks to cover the potential losses
2.5
2.5 2.4
10 from these loans. Assuming that all loans
5
containing part that is past due 61 to 90 days will
not be collected in the following month, 2.4% of
2.0
16.1 14.5 21.7
1.5
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
0
the total regular loans as of 31 March 2014,
Average level of risk for loans to non-financial entities with due part from 61 to 90
days (right scale)
would migrate to non-performing, making the
Share of loans with due part from 61 to 90 days in total regular loans to non-
financial entities (left scale)
non-performing loans rise to Denar 4,927 million,
Source: NBRM's Credit Registry, based on data or 18.9%. But the growth registered in the
submitted by banks. following month (April 2014) is significantly
lower, and equals 2.4% or Denar 617 million.
300,000
10,000 "B" (by Denar 1,796 million or 8.4%). The
decrease in the non-performing credit exposure
5,824
5,000
280,000
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
0
category "C non-performing", mainly to
A (left scale)
C (regular) (right scale)
B (right scale)
C (non-performing) (right scale) companies, which besides the improved
classification of certain credit exposures arises
D (right scale) E (right scale)
20,000 4.0
15,000
3.5 also from the collections of some non-performing
claims.
10,000
2,180 3.0
1,796
5,000
5,545 2.5
0
2.3
2.0
-10,000 1.5
1.7
-15,000 1.7
1.0 corporate sector, the credit risk is the highest in
"industry" and "construction", while according to
-20,000
0.5
-25,000
-30,000
0.0
individual products of the household sector, it is
the highest in credit cards and consumer loans
-35,000 -0.5
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
11
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
from C (regular)
2014
10
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013 2014
0
6.4
"B".
in 2014 in 2015 in 2016 in 2017 in 2018 in 2019 after 2019
11
The shift of a credit exposure with a performing status in an exposure with a non-performing status is calculated as the ratio
between the credit exposure which received non-performing status at the end of the quarter and the credit exposure at the
beginning of the analyzed quarter. The analysis does not include the credit exposure which was closed due to restructuring and
prolonging and the credit exposure approved during the quarter.
12
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Source: NBRM's Credit Registry, based on data At the end of the first quarter of 2014,
submitted by banks. there was an increase in the concentration of
credit risk, measured by the share of large
exposures in the banks' own funds. Analyzed by
Chart 16 bank, the share of large exposures in the own
Share of large exposures in banks’ own funds ranges between 11.8% and 738.0% and is
funds within the maximum prescribed limit13 (including
in percentage the exposures to financial institutions)14. If the
220 exposures of banks to financial institutions and
210
208.0 placements in CB bills and government securities
are excluded, the concentration is clearly lower,
200 197.8
i.e. the share of large exposures to non-financial
190
entities in the banks' own funds was reduced to
188.5
69.9%15. Analyzed by bank, the share of large
180 exposures to non-financial entities in the own
170
funds ranges from 10.8% to 358.6%. Moreover,
3.2012 6.2012 9.2012 12.2012 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 little less than half of the large exposures at the
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by system level account for one bank.
banks.
In conditions of slower growth in the
credit support to households, the average debt
per person (only for persons who are indebted)
remained at the same level as in the previous
quarter. As of 31 March 2014, most indebted are
the persons with monthly income of up to Denar
30.000, constituting two thirds of the total banks'
exposure to natural persons and 73.6% of the
total exposure intended for consumption (Annex
25). Analyzed by individual persons, most
12
Most collections of this credit exposure are covered by the monthly income of borrowers.
13
The total amount of large exposures must not exceed eight times the amount of bank's own funds.
14
Large exposure to a related person or persons is an exposure equal to or higher than 10% of bank's own funds.
15
Five banks have no large exposures to non-financial entities.
13
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
8,156
10,000
depending on the loan product ranges between
60 8,000 Denar 3.5 thousand (for credit cards and
40 6,000 overdrafts on current accounts) and Denar 11.3
20
3,480 3,685
4,000 thousand (for loans for purchasing and
0
12.2013 3.2014 12.2013 3.2014 12.2013 3.2014 12.2013 3.2014
2,000 renovation of residential and commercial
Residential and Car loans Credit cards and Consumer loans properties). According to the type of credit
commercial real overdrafts
estate loans
product, persons with monthly income of over
Denar 30,000 have a share of 75.7% in the
above 100,000 Denars (left scale)
from 50,000 to 100,000 Denars (left scale)
from 30,000 to 50,000 Denars (left scale)
from 15,000 to 30,000 Denars (left scale)
from 7,000 to 15,000 Denars (left scale)
up to 7,000 Denars (left scale)
credit exposure based on residential loans, while
average monthly liability by loan product (right scale)
those with monthly income up to Denar 30,000
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by have the largest share in the credit exposure
banks.
based on consumer loans and credit cards and
overdrafts on current accounts (75.2% and
75.3%, respectively).
Chart 18
Share of the exposure with higher risk 1.2 Stress test simulation of the resilience
level in the total credit exposure (top) of the banking system to increasing credit
and the average level of risk (bottom) risk
by individual activities, after the first and
second simulation Regular stress tests are aimed at
in percentage examining the sensitivity of the banking system
40
35.8
43.1
50
45
during the deterioration of the quality of certain
35
30 34.6
40 segments of the loan portfolio. They consist of
simulations of hypothetical migration of 10%
25.9 32.5 35
25 23.3 31.9 30
22.3
% of "C", "D" and "E" in the total credit exposure to companies and other clients before shock (up)
Industry
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
higher risk categories. The results of the
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Transport and storage
simulations show that the banking system
remains resilient to simulated shocks. However,
Accommodation facilities and catering services
Average risk level of credit exposure to companies and other clients before shock (down)
21 30
19
18.7 compared with the previous quarter, there is
17
17.5
17.4
23.4
22.1
25
some deterioration in the results of individual
15
14.9
14.1
21.4
19.2
18.3
20
banks. In both simulations for the different
13 13.6
13.6 15 activities, the greatest reduction in the capital
11
9.6
13.1
10
adequacy ratio is noticeable in the deterioration
9
of the creditworthiness of the customers from
"industry" and "wholesale and retail trade",
7 5
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
I simulation II simulation
14
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
2. Liquidity risk
In the first quarter of 2014, the level of liquid assets that banks in the
Republic of Macedonia had at their disposal remained high. Liquid assets have
increased on a quarterly basis, mainly due to the growth of banks' investments in
treasury bills. Observed annually, liquid assets were stagnant, which corresponds to
the acceleration of the annual rate of credit growth. Liquidity indicators registered a
stable movement. Reduction of the banks' sources of funding originating from their
parent entities continued in the first quarter of 2014, so that the deposits of non-
financial entities were generators of the quarterly increase in the sources of funding
for banks. In the first quarter of 2014, the positive changes in the maturity profile of
assets and liabilities of banks continued. Driver of this phenomenon was the
stronger preference for saving in the long run, especially among the households,
which resulted in more rapid growth of liabilities with greater residual maturity,
amid growth of the assets with shorter remaining maturity due to the gradual
maturity of the banks' portfolio of low-risk securities. Stress-test shows that the
banking system is resilient to liquidity shocks. According to the latest available data,
as of May 2014, the banking system has maintained the high liquidity position, as
evidenced by the share of the liquid in the total assets of over 30% and the
coverage of short-term liabilities of almost 55%.
16
Liquid assets include cash and assets on accounts with the National Bank, CB bills, correspondent accounts and short-term
deposits with foreign banks and investments in short-term securities issued by the government. For the purposes of analyzing
liquidity, assets and liabilities in Denar with FX clause are being regarded as Denar assets and liabilities.
15
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
0
0.2
0.1
deposits placed with foreign banks, after the
-3
-0.6
perceived decline in the last quarter of 2013,
-6 register a modest quarterly growth of 0.2% in
-9 the first quarter of 2014.
-12
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
16
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
40 36.9
20
54.1
sources of funds, continued as well. These trends
10
3.8
11.1 4.1
2.9
illustrate the gradual intensification of the credit
2.1
0 1.2
-1.7 activity and the increase in the propensity of
-10
-20
-9.0
banks to take credit risk. During the first quarter
of 2014, the change in the total sources of funds
6.2013
10.2013
11.2013
12.2013
3.2013
4.2013
5.2013
7.2013
8.2013
9.2013
1.2014
2.2014
3.2014
Annual change of Denar liquid assets / annual change of total sources of funds
was a result of the positive contribution of the
Annual change of liquid assets in foreign currency / annual change of total sources of funds growth of Denar liquid instruments, as opposed
Annual change of liquid assets / annual change of total sources of funds to the growth of foreign currency liquid
Qurterly average of the share of changes in liquid assets in changes of total sources of funds
instruments, where there is a tendency for banks'
disinvestment.
Twelve-month average of the share of changes in liquid assets in changes of total sources of funds
17
According to the list of securities for implementing monetary operations ("Official Gazette" no. 26/11), government bonds are
accepted by the National Bank as an instrument for ensuring the implementation of monetary operations. Given their maturity (over
1 year), they are not covered under the liquid assets.
18
The calculation of the liquidity of the banking system does not take into account the resident interbank assets and liabilities.
17
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
4.2013
5.2013
6.2013
7.2013
8.2013
9.2013
10.2013
11.2013
12.2013
1.2014
2.2014
3.2014
4.2014
coverage of liabilities with residual maturity of up
Liquid assets / total assets to 30 days, decreased in four banks, while the
Liquid assets / short term liabilities coverage of household deposits with liquid assets
Liquid assets / households deposits decreased in ten banks.
Liquid assets / liabilities with residual maturity up to
1 year
Liquid assets / liabilities with residual maturity up to
30 days
The indicator of the loans to deposits ratio
100 also shows stability in the dynamics, and its
89.5
93.0 92.8 twelve-month average has been maintained
80
60.9 59.9
below 90% for three years in a row. In the first
59.7
60
50.9
54.9 55.2
quarter of 2014, this indicator decreased by 0.7
40 43.4 44.9 44.8 percentage points, due to the more dynamic
20
31.3 32.2 31.9 quarterly growth in deposits (2.5%) compared
with the quarterly credit growth (1.7%). On a
0
quarterly basis, this indicator increased in five
3.2013
4.2013
5.2013
6.2013
7.2013
8.2013
9.2013
10.2013
11.2013
12.2013
1.2014
2.2014
3.2014
4.2014
92
88.5 88.8 88.9
89
88.7
86 87.5 88.1
83 Loans /deposits
Twelve-month moving average
80
12.2013
3.2013
6.2013
9.2013
3.2014
18
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 25
In this quarter, a slight decrease in the
Liquidity ratios of the banking system by
liquidity indicators in terms of currency, was
currency - Denar (top) and foreign currency
registered. Amid more dynamic quarterly growth
(bottom)
in percentage
of the Denar component of banks' liabilities,
140 compared with the foreign currency component,
123.7 122.8 121.4 the reduction is more notable in the Denar
120
95.3 liquidity indicators. This is particularly evident in
100 84.8
80.2
81.7 the coverage of household deposits and short-
80
74.0 72.4 term liabilities with appropriate liquid assets,
60 66.0
59.7 61.8 where the decline in the Denar indicators in the
40 first quarter of 2014 is significantly faster than
20 33.5 30.5 29.7 the fall in the foreign currency indicators. The
0 moderate quarterly growth of the foreign
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 currency component of the banks' liabilities, amid
55
simultaneously declining foreign currency
50 47.2 47.0
46.6 liquidity, caused the reduction of liquidity
45
indicators in foreign currency in the first quarter
40
35 32.9 33.1 33.4 33.3 of 2014 to be significantly lower compared with
30
32.1 32.9
32.6 that in Denars. The loan to deposit ratio declined
32.3
25
29.8 on a quarterly basis in both Denars and in
26.3 25.7
20
25.1 foreign currency. The decrease was slightly more
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 pronounced in the indicator in Denars due to the
Liquid assets / total assets
more dynamic quarterly growth of Denar
Liquid assets / short term liabilities deposits, but also because of the small share of
Liquid assets / households deposits foreign currency lending in total quarterly credit
Loans/deposits
growth.
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. Banking system liquidity ratios19, presented
as ratios between assets and liabilities that
Chart 26 mature in the next 30 days or 180 days, during
Liquidity ratios the first quarter of 2014 demonstrated stable
in percentage movement and are at a higher level compared to
3 the average level of these ratios over 201320.
2.4 2.4
2.1
2
1.6 1.6
1.3
up to 30 days
up to 180 days
During the first quarter of 2014, most of
0 the inflow of new sources of funding for the
05.2013
10.2013
03.2014
03.2013
04.2013
06.2013
07.2013
08.2013
09.2013
11.2013
12.2013
01.2014
02.2014
04.2014
19
The method of calculation of liquidity ratios of banks is determined by the Decision on liquidity risk management of banks
("Official Gazette" no. 126/11, no. 19/12 and no. 151/13) and the respective guidelines.
20
This stems from the changes in the regulations (in force starting from December 2013), which reduced the percentage of
deposits that should be covered by liquid assets, from 80% to 60%.
19
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. In the first quarter of 2014, funding
The category of “other assets” includes assets that are
sources based on borrowings, interbank
not loans to nonfinancial entities and are not included
in the category of liquid assets (long-term loans in transactions and deposits from financial
foreign and domestic banks, foreign exchange reserve institutions decreased, mainly as a result of the
requirement, foreclosures, fixed assets, etc.) as well fall of the liabilities to parent entities. Regarding
as the decrease of impairment of financial and the currency, the largest contribution (81.6%) in
nonfinancial assets.
The category of “other sources of funds” includes all
the quarterly increase in banks' total sources of
sources of funding which are not deposits of funding was that of long-term sources, mainly
nonfinancial entities (equity and reserves, deposits of due to the growth of deposits of non-financial
financial institutions, loans, subordinated instruments entities, and within these the household deposits.
etc.) and the increase of impairment of financial and
In the first quarter of 2014, short-term sources
nonfinancial assets.
of funding have demonstrated a minimal growth
of 0.1%, mainly due to the reduction of liabilities
to parent entities. Households' preference for
saving in the long run also had its share in the
decline of short-term funding sources, thus
changing the maturity profile of household
deposits in order to increase the long-term
component, at the expense of short-term
deposits.
21
Cash inflows and cash outflows of banks are obtained in an indirect way, i.e. by changing the balances of individual accounts of
the banks' balance sheet. The effect on the cash flows of the banks, which is due to the income and expenditures that do not
represent cash outflow or inflow (e.g. write-offs of loans, revaluation of securities available for sale or held for trading, depreciation
of fixed assets, net exchange differences, etc.) is an integral part of the change in the corresponding balance sheet items, the
respective inflow or outflow refers to.
20
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
21
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Chart 29
Assets and liabilities of banks according to also from the change in the indicators for the
the contractual residual maturity - absolute relative importance of the cumulative negative
amount (top) and structure (bottom) gap between assets and liabilities. The
in millions of Denars and in percentage cumulative negative gap between assets and
400,000
360,000
liabilities of banks with residual maturity of up to
320,000
162,811
73,228 30 days, expressed as a percentage of
cumulative assets of the same contractual
280,000 147,351 65,290 76,046
160,744
240,000
93,081
maturity, decreased by 11.1 percentage points in
89,794
89,357
66,920
200,000 81,523
90,663
160,000
34,626 38,636 34,655 the first quarter of 2014. This positive movement
120,000 29,999
80,000
22,119 25,174
127,048
was caused primarily by the quarterly growth of
95,979
40,000 111,381 105,103
125,324 125,288
the assets with contractual residual maturity of
up to 30 days by Denar 9,124 million, as
0
12.2013
12.2013
3.2014
3.2013
6.2013
9.2013
3.2013
6.2013
9.2013
3.2014
opposed to the liabilities with same residual
Assets Liabilities
contractual maturity that rose by Denar 1,760
100
50 18.8
24.5 21.8 11.0 11.8 10.5
to 30 days, where this reduction is far stronger
40
30
8.4
6.7
(on a quarterly basis it is almost 20 percentage
20
31.3
39.8 38.3 38.4 points). On the other hand, with the cumulative
28.1
difference between the foreign assets and
26.0
10
0
liabilities with residual maturity of up to 30 days
9.2013
12.2013
3.2013
12.2013
3.2013
6.2013
3.2014
6.2013
9.2013
3.2014
Assets Liabilities
in the first quarter of 2014, the negative gap
Up to 1 month From 1 month to 3 months
widened by more than 7.0 percentage points.
From 3 months to 1 year Over 1 year Also, the relative importance of the cumulative
difference between banks' assets and liabilities
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. with residual maturity of up to 90 days
significantly improved in the first quarter of 2014.
Chart 30
Cumulative difference between banks' assets According to expected maturity, the
and liabilities according to the contractual cumulative difference between assets and
residual maturity liabilities of banks in all maturity segments is
as percentage of cumulative assets with the same positive (Annex 29), which is due to the banks'
contractual residual maturity expectations for stability of deposits as the main
0
source of funding for their activities. Namely,
-10
-12.8 according to the banks' expectations, as of 31
-20
-29.1 -31.3
March 2013, 78.8% of deposits with residual
-30 -29.4 -37.0 maturity of up to three months (83.0% as of 31
-40 -34.9
-36.5
-40.6
December 2013) are stable and should remain in
-50
-51.7 -42.3 the banks in the next three months.
-51.2
-52.5
-60
-63.7 -59.0
Foreign currency, up to 30 days
-59.0
-59.6 In the first quarter of 2014, the resilience
-70
Denar, up to 30 days
Total, up to 30 days
of the Macedonian banking system to simulated
-80
Total up to 90 days
Total, up to 1 year
liquidity shocks was satisfactory, due to the
-90
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
relatively high amount of liquid assets that banks
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. have. The largest decrease in the liquid assets of
the banking system would be noticed in the
simulated withdrawal of deposits of the 20
22
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 31
Results from the simulations for withdrawal largest depositors. Thus, in this simulation, liquid
of: assets would decrease by 39.5%, the share of
- 20% of households’ deposits (top) and liquid assets in the total assets of the banking
- deposits of twenty largest depositors system would be reduced from 31.1%22 to
(bottom) 21.5%, and the coverage of short-term
as a percentage of reduction in liquid assets liabilities23 would reduce from 54.1% to 41.6%.
70
22
The initial level of all indicators in the presentation of the results of the simulations is without the effect of the Macedonian Bank
for Development Promotion AD Skopje, which is excluded from the simulated liquidity shocks due to the legal limit for participation
in the deposit market.
23
The simulations assume that deposits that are flowing out of the banks are of short-term maturity and are included in the short-
term liabilities.
24
Banks' liabilities to parent entities based on subordinated instruments and hybrid capital instruments are excluded from the
simulation, because, according to the regulations for determining capital adequacy, the possibility for their early repayment is
limited.
25
This simulation includes off-balance sheet liabilities of banks based on unused limits on credit cards, irrevocable credit limits and
unsecured letters of credit.
23
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
3. Currency risk
In the first quarter of 2014, banks maintained low exposure to currency risk,
which as measured by the share of the gap between assets and liabilities with
foreign currency component in the banks' own funds, declined further.
Deeuroization continued, which is evident from the further reduction in the share of
the currency component in both the assets and the liabilities of the banking system.
Chart 32
Quarterly (left and middle) and annual (right) growth of assets and liabilities with currency
component
in millions of Denars and in %
8000 3 assets 8
6,557 with 5.3
1.8 6
6000 5,107 2 currency
1.4 4
compone 4.7
4000 1 0.2 0.4 nt 2
0.2 0.3
567
2000 liabilities
346
0 0
100 with
0 0.1 -2 -1.1 -1.2
-1 currency
-0.9 -4
-2000 compone
-1,534 -2
nt -6
-4000 -3 total
-8
3.2013 6.2013 09.2013 12.2013 3.2014 assets
assets with currency component
liabilities with currency component
total assets
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks.
Source:
26
The gap between assets and liabilities with a currency component is the difference between assets and liabilities with a currency
component as determined in the regulation for managing currency risk, where the assets with currency component are presented
on a net basis, i.e. less the impairment of assets with currency component classified in C, D and E risk categories.
27
This reduction comes mostly from foreign currency cash (Denar 1,090 million) and current accounts in foreign banks (Denar
1,963 million). On the other hand, banks' deposits in foreign currency increased by Denar 1,805 million.
24
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Table 1
Share of the assets and liabilities with a The share of assets and liabilities with
currency component* in the total assets currency component in the total assets of the
of banks banking system continued to decline.
in percentages
Item 12.2013 3.2014
Assets in foreign currency 27.0 26.1
Assets in Denars with FX clause 18.7 18.5
Assets with currency component 45.7 44.6
Liabilities in foreign currency 43.1 42.6
Liabilities in Denars with FX clause 1.1 1.2
Liabilities with currency component 44.2 43.8
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by
banks.
*In the structure of the assets with a currency The euro dominates the structure of
component, loans and interest receivables are assets and liabilities with a currency component,
on a net basis (adjusted for impairment). accounting for nearly 90%.
“MBPR” AD Skopje is not included.
Table 2
Currency
Source: structure of assets and liabilities with currency component
in percentages
30.3.2013 31.12.2013 31.3.2014
Currency
A ssets Liabilities A ssets Liabilities A ssets Liabilities
Euro 88.6 88.1 88.8 88.4 88.8 88.4
US dollar 6.9 7.6 6.8 7.3 6.8 7.2
Swiss franc 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Other 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks.
25
Source:
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Table 3
Distribution of banks by share of open foreign currency position and aggregate foreign
position in own funds (by currency)
Number of banks
Open foreign currency by currency/own funds A ggregate
foreign
Description Euro US Dollar Swiss Franc Other
currency
position/own
Long Short Long Short Long Short Long Short funds
under 5% 4 3 11 3 10 3 13 1 7
from 5% to 10% 2 1
from 10% to 20% 2 1 4
from 20% to 30% 3 3
over 30%
The exposure of the banks in the Republic of Macedonia to interest rate risk
in the banking book is small. The reason for the modest role of this risk arises from
the practice of banks to apply adjustable interest rates28 in most of the contracts for
loans and deposits (which are the dominant banking products).
By avoiding this risk, banks transfer it to the borrowers, turning it into indirect
credit risk.
28
Interest rates are adjusted unilaterally because of the changes in interest rate policy of the bank, rather than due to a particular
interest rate or index. The use of adjustable interest rates ensures transfer of the interest rate risk to customers and could serve as
an instrument for managing liquidity and profitability.
29
With the Decision amending the Decision on the reserve requirement ("Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia" no.
166/2013) starting from 1 January 2014, the NBRM is exempted from paying reserve requirement remuneration (previously, this
remuneration equaled 1% for the Denar reserve requirement and 0.1% for the reserve requirement in Euros).
26
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
-70000
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
The gap between interest sensitive assets
Fixed interest rate
and liabilities is positive in the positions with
Variable interest rate fixed and variable interest rate31, and negative in
Adjustable interest rate
30
Sight deposits and time deposits with adjustable interest rate account for 5.4% and 61.3%, respectively, in the total interest rate-
sensitive liabilities with adjustable interest rates.
31
The positive gap of fixed interest rate positions arises from the fact that this type of interest rate prevails in securities and banks'
investments in deposits. The positive gap of positions with variable rate is a result of sight deposits which are mostly with variable
interest rates.
32
The negative gap in the positions with adjustable interest rates stems from the fact that significant portion of time deposits and
almost all sight liabilities have adjustable interest rates.
27
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
100
0.5 ratio between the total weighted value of the
0 0.0
banking book and own funds ranges from 0.1%
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
to 10.4% with a median of 2.4% and a third
fixed interest rate (left scale)
variable interest rate (left scale) quartile of 4.4%, with the highest ratio being
adjustable interest rate (left scale)
fixed interest rate (right scale) registered in one bank that does not apply
variable interest scale (right scale)
adjustable interest rate (right scale) adjustable interest rates.
total weighted value (right scale)
5. Insolvency risk
In the first quarter of 2014, the solvency of the banking system remained high,
despite the minimal reduction of the indicators for solvency and capitalization of the
banking system. The amount of own funds of the banking system is smaller due to
the loss recognized in some banks in the first three months of 2014, but also due to
the proper application of the accounting rules in determining the solvency position
of two banks on a consolidated basis34. The regulatory capital required to cover the
risks of the banking system declined, which is entirely due to the decline in the
capital requirements for currency risk. Capital requirements for credit risk increased
(albeit modestly) that mostly stems from the increased claims on other companies
and claims covered by residential buildings. However, the slower growth of the risk-
weighted assets, compared with the growth of total assets, suggests that banks are
still cautious when taking risks. The results of the stress test conducted on 31 March
2014 are somewhat worse than at the end of 2013, but the banking system retained
the resilience to hypothetical shocks.
33
The total weighted value of the banking book shows the change of the economic value of this portfolio as a result of the
assessment of the change in the interest rates by using a standard interest rate shock (parallel positive or negative change in
interest rates by 200 basis points). The total weighted value of the banking book of the banking system is obtained by aggregating
the weighted values of the banking book of individual banks. For an individual bank, the ratio between the weighted value of the
banking book and the bank's own funds may equal up to 20%.
34
In this section of the Report, the two banks from the group of small banks, Eurostandard Banka AD Skopje and Post Bank AD
Skopje, are treated as a single entity, i.e. in the presented data and analyzes, as of 31 March 2014, these two banks are included
on consolidated basis. Namely, after Eurostandard Banka AD Skopje acquired 100% stake in Post Bank AD Skopje (in January,
2014), the appropriate authorities of the two banks adopted Decisions on initiating a procedure for status change (in February and
March, 2014) - acquisition of Post Bank AD Skopje to Eurostandard Banka, which ended on 30 June 2014.
28
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
13
14.2
simultaneous increase in its activities (excluding
risk weighted assets which recorded minimum
12
11.1 11.3
11.1 quarterly decline of 0.1%). Quarterly changes in
11 10.6
10.1
the individual components of the indicators of
9.9
10
9.6 solvency of the banking system are largely
9.7
9
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
9.5
determined by the conducted capital investment
Capital adequacy ratio
of one bank into another (from the group of
Tier 1 capital/risk-weighted assets
small banks) and the determination of the
Equity and reserves/total activities solvency position of the two banks on a
Nominal value of common shares and premiums based on these shares/risk- consolidated basis.
weighted assets
Equity and reserves/assets
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. In the first quarter of 2014, the growth
rates in all components of the solvency indicators
Chart 40 noted downward movement, and the quarterly
Quarterly growth of solvency ratios change in capital positions entered into negative
components zone. Risk weighted assets recorded minimal
in percentage adverse change, which in conditions of growth
3
2.3
(though slower) of the total balance sheet and
2 2.2
off-balance sheet activities suggests further
1.8 1.6
1.2 1.2
caution of banks in taking risks.
1 1.2
-0.4 -0.4
-1
In the first quarter of 2014, the own funds
-1.5 of the banking system declined by Denar 671
-1.7
-2
million, or 1.5%. Amid complete absence of new
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
35
At the end of 2013, 13 banks showed a profit from operations in the amount of Denar 2,486 million. As of 31 March 2014, only
three banks reinvested the profits earned in 2013 in own funds, totaling Denar 140 million. In the coming months of 2014,
reinvestment of part of the profit from 2013 by other banks can be expected.
29
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Chart 41
Structure of quarterly growth of own funds from the equity investment performed by one
in millions of denars bank into another and determining the own
1500
funds of the two banks on a consolidated basis.
1000
The structure of the own funds of the
banking system remained unchanged in the first
500
1 quarter of 2014, with a share of the core capital
11
140
(before deductions from core capital and
0
supplementary capital) of 85.5% in the total own
-419
funds. It could be expected that in the coming
months of 2014, a larger number of banks will
-500 -119
-284
also reinvest their profits earned during 2013,
making positive effect on the amount and quality
-1000
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
Other changes
of own funds of the banking system.
Revaluation reserves
Allowed amount of subordinated imstruments that may be included in the calculation of own
funds*
Issued new subordinated instruments More details about the level of own funds
Loss in current year
of individual groups of banks are presented in
Retained profit from previous year
-186
-668
-642
Reduction of the capital requirements for
covering risks is entirely due to the lower amount
-500
30
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 43
residential buildings. Despite the quarterly
Structure of own funds according to usage
decline in the part of the own funds that exceeds
for covering risks
in percentage the minimum level necessary to cover the risks,
100 "excess capital" still dominates the structure of
total own funds, with 51.9%.
75 52.5 51.9
53.8
25
39.9 41.0 41.8
0
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
Table 4
Capital requirements for credit risk, by categories of exposure
in millions of denars, unless stated otherwise
Changes
31
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Chart 44
Structure of the quarterly growth in credit balance sheet exposures, registered a decrease
risk weighted assets and average risk weight of 0.7 percentage points, indicating that banks
in millions of denars in percentage are still cautious in taking risks.
15000 55
54.1
53.4 More details on capital requirements for
Total: 6,473 mil.
10000
53.4
of Denars
Total: 985 mil. of
53 covering risks and on the capital adequacy ratio,
Denars
by groups of banks, are provided in Annex 34.
Total: -2,161 mil.
of Denars
5000 51
0 49
-5000 47
-10000 45
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
32
Source:
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
16
stability of the banking system. In the most
extreme simulations presented in this report
14.1
13.8
14
13.9
13.6 (increased credit exposure in risk categories "C",
12
11.9
"D" and "E" by 80% and migration of 10% of the
11.5
credit exposure classified in each of the risk
categories "A" and "B" to higher risk categories),
10
8.6
8 8.6
8.2
8.1
the capital adequacy of the banking system is
reduced to a level (of 8.1% and 8.2%
6
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 respectively), which is close to the statutory
Increase in the credit risk exposure classified in the risk categories C, D and E by 30%
minimum of 8%. The simulations show that the
Increase in the credit risk exposure classified in the risk categories C, D and E by 50%
reduction of the capital adequacy of the banking
Increase in the credit risk exposure classified in the risk categories C, D and E by 80%
system to the statutory minimum level of 8%
Transfer of 10% of the credit exposure classified in the risk categories A and B to the
risk categories C, D and E, where the transferred credit exposure is distributed requires an increase of 81.3% (85.2% as of 13
equally
Simultaneous reclassification in the risk category C of the five largest credit exposures
to nonfinancial entities (including the connected persons) December 2013) of the credit exposure with a
Source: NBRM, based on data submitted by banks. higher risk level, i.e. migration of 10.2% (10.6%
as of 13 December 2013) of the credit exposure
Figure 46
classified in each of the risk categories "A" and
Capital adequacy ratio at the level of the "B" to higher risk categories (these simulations
banking system, before and after would lead to a doubling of the share of non-
simulations of combined shocks performing loans in total loans, from the current
in percentage
10.6% to 20.8%).
18
16.8 16.6
Isolated shocks on the side of currency risk
16
and interest rate risk have no significant impact
on the level of capital adequacy. However, their
14
materialization would cause shocks on the part of
11.8 the credit risk, whose impact on the capital
12 11.5
adequacy of the banking system was already
presented above.
10
8.6
8.2
8 8.6
8.2
6
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
Increase in the credit risk exposure in the risk categories C, D and E by 50% and
depreciation of the foreign exchange rate of the Denar relative to the Euro by 20%
Source:
Increase in the credit risk exposure in the risk categories C, D and E by 80% and
increase in the interest rates of individual on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet
positions by 1 - 5 percentage points
Increase in C, D and E by 80%, depreciation of the foreign exchange rate of the
Denar relative to the Euro by 30% and increase in the interest rates of individual on-
balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions by 1 - 5 percentage points
Capital adequacy ratio, before simulations
33
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
34
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 48
Market share (assets) of banks by country Predominantly foreign owned banks
of origin of the dominant foreign retained the lead role in the major balance sheet
shareholder* positions of the banking system. Their market
in percentages share (by asset size) increased by 0.4 percentage
70
60
points and at the end of the first quarter it was
3.2013 12.2013 3.2014
50 68.7%. The individual market share of these
40 banks ranges from 0.5% to 21.2%. The market
30 share of banks predominantly owned by
20
shareholders from the European Union accounted
10
0
for 59.7%.
Bulgaria
Austria
Total
Slovenia
Turkey
Greece
Germany
France
Source:
38
Four subsidiaries of foreign banks increased their activities in the first quarter of 2014 and fully participated in the growth of total
assets of the banking system.
35
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2. Banks’ activities
In the first quarter of 2014, total assets of the banking system grew at a
slower pace, while annually their growth accelerated, as observed primarily in
lending. Thus, compared with December and March 2013, the annual growth rate of
loans increased by 1.2 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, and reached 7.6%.
Moreover, in the period from March to May 2014, lending to non-financial entities
intensified, indicating a gradual improvement in the perceptions of domestic banks
regarding the risk profile of the credit demand.
n
39
Herfindahl index is calculated according to the formula HI ( S j ) 2 , where S is the share of each bank in the total amount of
j 1
the analyzed category (e.g., total assets, total deposits, etc.), where n is the total number of banks in the system. When the
Herfindahl index ranges from 1,000 to 1,800 units, the concentration ratio in the banking system is considered to be acceptable.
Source:
36
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
350
Assets/GDP (left scale) 250 respectively (as compared to the first quarter of
300
Loans/GDP (right scale)
200 2013 it is an increase of 0.5, 1.3 and 1.2
250
Deposits/GDP (right scale)
150
percentage points, respectively). The level of
200
financial intermediation in the country is still
150 100
100
lower than in most of the analyzed EU member
50
50
states, but it is at a similar level compared to
0 0 some of the new EU member states, as well as
countries in the region (regarding the ratio of
deposits and loans to GDP).
37
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
100
11.4 10
50
10.9 11.1
5
-13.2
0
-2.0 6.2
-40.6
0
-50 -1.4
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
-100 -5
40
For more details, see section 2.1. Loans to nonfinancial entities
41
For more details, see section 2.2. Deposits of non-financial entities.
38
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 54
Chart 55
Banks' investments in government bonds
Structure of the securities portfolio
(nominal value), by currency and maturity in percentages
in thousands of denars and in %
500000 16
60
13.6 53.1
450000
51.5 50.4
13.0 14 47.2 48.9
400000 50
12 41.9
350000 41.4 41.2
39.9
300000 10 40 37.6
250000 8
200000 6
30
150000
4
100000 20
1.2 2
50000 10.9 11.1 12.0
0 0 10 7.3
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 5.5
5 year government bonds with FX clause (left scale)
0
5 year government bonds without FX clause (left scale)
3 year government bonds with FX clause (left scale) 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
3 year government bonds without FX clause (left scale)
2 year government bonds with FX clause (left scale)
Placements in CB bils
2 year government bonds without FX clause (left scale) Placements in Treasury bills
Share of government bonds in total government securities owned by banks (right scale)
Other placements
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks.
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks.
42
Assets in domestic banks declined by Denar 448 million and determined 47.6% of the reduction in the placements with banks and
other financial institutions. This decrease stems from the decline of short-term time deposits in foreign currency (by about Denar
241 million) in one large and one small bank, and the reduction of short-term time deposits with domestic banks in Denars in one
small bank (by Denar 130 million).
43
Loans to domestic banks declined by Denar 399 million (and determined 42.4% of the decrease in placements with banks and
other financial institutions), entirely due to the reduction of long-term loans in foreign currency of "MBPR" AD Skopje to other
domestic banks due to the regular repayment of due liabilities based on the used credit line from EIB.
39
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
36000 10
33000
30000
27000
24000 9.2
21000
18000 8.9 9
15000
8.6
12000
9000 8.3
6000
8.1
3000
0 8
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
44
Analyzed by individual banks (with the exception of "MBPR" AD), the share of banks 'claims on non-residents in total assets
ranges from 1.6% to 18.7%, while the share of banks' liabilities to non-residents in the total liabilities ranges from 0.3% to 32.9%.
45
Banks’ claims on non-residents fell by Denar 133 million, or 0.4%. In their framework, more significant changes are noted in
regular current accounts with foreign banks (reduction by Denar 1,945 million) and in term deposits abroad (increase of Denar
2,044 million). Other changes are minor but contribute to the reduction of claims on non-residents.
Liabilities to non-residents decreased by Denar 146 million, fully as a result of the above mentioned withdrawal of deposits by the
parent entity of one medium-size bank.
40
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
216000
compared to the growth rate in the previous
212000
quarter (Q4 2013). The slowdown of credit
208000 activity was most pronounced in the corporate
204000 sector, and to a lesser extent it was present also
200000
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
with the loans to households. However,
Total loans to nonfinancial entities observed on a monthly basis, the slowdown in
credit growth was registered only in the first two
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks.
months of the quarter, while in March, lending
accelerated, particularly in the corporate sector.
Chart 60 This trend of faster monthly growth in lending
Quarterly (top) and annual (bottom) growth remained also in May 2014.
rate of loans to non-financial entities
in millions of denars and in % Moreover, the annual growth rate of loans
7000 4
as of 31 March 2014 was higher than the annual
6000 3.1 rate of growth at the end of the last quarter of
3
5000
2013. This movement represents the more
4000 2.0
2 favorable expectations of banks about the risks,
3000
1.7
but it is also an effect of the current monetary
2000
1 loosening on banks' lending. The
macroprudential measure of the National Bank in
1000
0.5 0.7
0 0
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 the regulation governing the liquidity risk
Absolute quarterly change of total loans (left scale) management, from the end of 2013, encourages
Quartely change rate of total loans (right scale)
the increase of the credit support to the real
18000
7.6
8 sector48.
16000
14000 7
12000 6.4 In the first quarter of 2014, contributions
of the household sector (49.7%) and corporate
10000
6
8000
6000
5.2
4.6
sector (50.6%) to the total growth in lending
5
activity are almost equal. Lending to companies
4000 4.6
2000
0 4 registered quarterly growth of Denar 1,953
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
Absolute annual change of total loans (right scale) million (or 1.4%), which was mostly a result of
Annual growth rate of total loans (left scale) the activity "industry" (Annex 15). Quarterly
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks. growth of loans to households amounted to
46
Loans to non-financial entities include the loans to resident and non-resident non-financial entities, including loans to private and
public nonfinancial companies (corporate loans), central government, local government, non-profit institutions serving households
(loans to other clients), sole proprietors and natural persons (loans to households).
47
Analyzed by individual bank, thirteen banks reported a quarterly increase of loans to non-financial entities (ranging from 0.9% to
31.8%), while other banks reported a quarterly reduction of loans (ranging from 0.9% to 2.6%).
48
According to the amendments to the Decision on liquidity risk management, which have been applied since December 2013, in
the calculation of the liquidity ratio up to 30 days and up 180 days, the percentage of term deposits which are assumed to flow out
of the banks and which should be covered with liquid assets, reduced (from 80% to 60%).
41
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
14 30 12
15 14.9
11.8 25
12 13.9 22.1 16.7 10.1 10
10.7 20
11 12.8
10 15 15.9 8.4 8
10
8 6.1
7.1 7 5 1.2 6
5.1 3.8 0
6 3.1 3.5 5.4
2.3 4
4.1 3 -5
3.0 -7.4
4 -10
2.5 2
-15 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
2 -1
-0.8 -0.8 -20 0
-4.3 -22.8
0 -25
-5 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 -30 -2
Denar loans Past due loans (left scale) Non-performing loans (left scale)
Households Enterprises Denar loans with FX clause
Short-term loans (right scale) Long-term loans (right scale)
Foreign currency loans
49
The corporate sector had higher contribution (67.7%) in the growth of Denar loans compared to the household sector (32.0%).
42
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
Chart 62
Structure of loans by sector, currency and maturity
in percentages
100 100 100
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 11.9 12.3 11.8 11.5 11.1
1.4 25.4 24.5 23.8 23.5
25.5 1.0
1.4 1.3 0.8 1.2
80 80 80
60.0 59.4 58.6 58.7 58.6
60 60 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 60
0 0 0
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
Denar loans Denar loans with FX clause Foreign currency loans Short-term loans Long-term loans Past due loans Non-performing loans
Households Enterprises Other clients
50
See more detail in Section I.1. Credit risk
51
Analyzing by individual banks, twelve banks reported a quarterly increase of deposits (the increasing interval ranged from 0.08%
to 12.1%, by bank), whereas other banks reported a quarterly reduction of deposits (the reduction ranged from 0.8% to 2.3%, by
bank).
43
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
18000 8
interest in keeping deposits in domestic currency
6.0
7.0 continued to increase. Denar deposits increased
15000
6 by Denar 4,173 million, on a quarterly basis, and
12000 4.6 5.7
3.6
increased their share in the total deposit base.
9000 4
Most (79.8%) of the growth of Denar deposits
6000
2 was due to the household sector. The quarterly
3000
growth of foreign currency deposits amounted to
0 0
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 Denar 1,731 million and most of it results from
Absolute annual change of total deposits (left scale) the long-term household deposits54. Denar
Annual change rate of total deposits (right scale)
deposits with FX clause noted a quarterly growth
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks. of Denar 502 million.
Chart 65
Quarterly (top) and annual (bottom) deposit growth by sector, currency and maturity
in percentages
10 5 40 5 8
3.8 34.9 4.5
8 4 30 4
3 7.2 3.0
6 3.0 20 3
21.0 2.4 7
3.2 2 1.4
4 1.5 10 2
2.4 1.3 1.3
2.1 1
2 0.7 0 1
2.4 2.0 0 0.1 6
-0.6 0
0 -13.0 -10
-1 5.8
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 -1
-2 -20 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
-2 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 5
-4 -2
-3 -30
4.8
-6 -3
-4 -40 -3.8
-8 -4 4
-5 -50
15 0 12 30
7.4 13.1 10.0
8 7.0 13 10
6.7 10.9 -10.2 -10 28.3 8,3
11 8
6 11.4 6.7
5.9 9 6
-20
7 4
4
5 -30 2 24.7 25
3.2 -0.7
2 3 0
0.9 -42.1 0.4 0.6 23.0
-40 -2
1
0 -4 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014
-1
3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 -50 -4.5
-6
-3 -55.6 -7.2
-2 -8 20
-2.6 -5 3.2013 6.2013 9.2013 12.2013 3.2014 -60
-4 Sight deposits (left scale)
Denar deposits (left scale) Short-term deposits (left scale)
Enterprises Households Foreign deposits (left scale)
Long-term deposits (right scale)
Denar deposits with FX clause (right scale)
52
Corporate Denar deposits with foreign currency clause increased by Denar 501 million, entirely due to the growth of short-term
corporate Denar deposits with foreign currency clause in one medium-size bank.
53
Corporate Denar deposits increased by Denar 457 million, entirely due to the growth of corporate sight Denar deposits.
54
Foreign currency deposits of households rose by Denar 1,237 million and determined 71.5% of the growth of total foreign
currency deposits. Long-term foreign currency deposits of households had the highest contribution (79.9%) in the growth of
foreign currency deposits of households.
44
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
40 40
40
3. Profitability
In the first quarter of 2014, the banking system registered profit in the
amount of Denar 414.5 million, thus interrupting the several-year trend of achieving
negative financial results at this time of the year. Lower interest expenses and
lower impairment of financial assets (loans) of banks had the most pronounced
effect on increasing profits. Impairment of non-financial assets (foreclosures) is
rapidly growing, and operating costs of banks remained almost unchanged.
Profitability indicators have improved significantly, and the operational capability of
banks of generating revenues that cover the costs of operation has increased, too.
55
Denar long-term household deposits increased by Denar 2,160 million and had the largest contribution (58.3%) in the growth of
long-term deposits. The contribution of long-term foreign currency deposits of households in the growth of long-term deposits
amounted to 26.7%.
45
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Compared with March 2013, the number of banks which registered profits
remained unchanged (nine banks), but due to a change in the composition of banks
which registered profits, the share of assets of these banks in the total assets of the
banking system declined by 2.6 percentage points, and at the end of March 2014 it
was 65.7%.
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by Following these developments, minimal
banks. changes occurred in the structure of total
revenues, and net interest income strengthened
Chart 68 its already large share (of 68.7%).
Structure of total income
in percentages In the first quarter of 2014, compared with
100
11.8 12.5 9.4 the first quarter of 2013, interest income
90
80 21.9
recorded a small increase (of 7.1 million or
21.2 21.5
70 0.1%), and the interest income from non-
60 financial companies and households still had the
50
40
largest share in their formation. Despite the
30
67.0 66.0 68.7 annual credit expansion of banks to the
20 corporate sector, interest income from non-
10
financial companies declined by Denar 62.3
0
3.2012 3.2013 3.2014 million, or 2.9% on an annual basis, mainly due
Net interest income Net fees and commissions income Other regular income to the downward trend in lending interest rates.
Interest income from financial companies
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by dropped by Denar 23.9 million (or 6.3%), which
banks.
56
Total regular income includes: net interest income, net commission income and other regular income (net trading income, net
income from financial instruments carried at fair value, net income from exchange rate differentials, income from dividends and
equity investments, net gains from sale of financial assets available for sale, capital gains from assets sales, release of provisions
for off-balance sheet items, release of other provisions, income from other sources and income based on recovered claims
previously written off).
57
The decline in other regular income by Denar 115.9 million, or 21.5%, was due to the reduction of several components: net
income from trading in two banks, the release of special reserve for off-balance sheet exposure in one bank, income from previous
years in one bank and collected previously written-off claims based on claims from interest in one bank in the country.
46
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
58
A Decision amending the Decision on reserve requirement ("Official Gazette of the Republic of Macedonia" no.166/2013) was
adopted, which exempts the NBRM from paying reserve requirement remuneration (previously, this remuneration equaled 1% for
Denar reserve requirement and 0.1% for euro reserve requirement). This decision came into effect on 1 January 2014.
59
In the first three months of 2014, the interest income from investments in government securities, which is included in the
category of interest income from other entities, increased by Denar 37.1 million, or 12.3%. As of 31 March 2013, the amount of
treasury bills totaled Denar 30,740 million, and as of 31 March 2014 it was Denar 34,147 million. Also, investments in government
bonds continued to rise.
60
Most significant decline was registered in the interest rates on short-term time Denar deposits with FX clause (by 2.0 percentage
points), but the amount of these deposits is very small.
47
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
61
Mostly due to the reduction in the interest expenses for financial institutions - non-residents based on term deposits in two banks.
62
Banks' operating costs include: staff costs, depreciation, general and administrative expenses, deposit insurance premiums and
other operating costs, except extraordinary expenses.
63
In circumstances when banks' deposits grow by 7.0% annually.
64
Other operating costs include: special reserve for off-balance sheet exposure, other provisions and expenses on other grounds
(expenses from previous years, income taxes and contributions, expenses for fines, fees and court decisions and other costs).
65
As of 31 March 2013, the growth of the category "other operating expenses" was for the most part determined by the growth of
additional provisions for potential liabilities arising from litigations in one bank and increased expenditures on other basis in two
banks in the country. Special reserve for off-balance sheet exposure, which is also part of the category of other operating costs
continued to rise (by Denar 20.5 million, or 19.6%).
48
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
100 4
operating costs, is confirmed by all other
90
85.4 3.5
indicators of the ratio between the different
80
3
types of costs and total regular income, which
2.8
70
2.5
decrease on annual basis (Table 6).
60
58.7
50 2
3.2011 3.2012 3.2013 3.2014 In the first quarter of 2014, net impairment
Operating expenses/Total regular income (cost-to-income) (left
scale) which banks recognize for the impairment of
Operating expenses/Net interest income (left scale)
3000
On the other hand, in the first quarter of
2500 2014, impairment of non-financial assets
2000 (foreclosures) continued to grow at a significantly
1500 faster pace. Compared to March 2013, it
1000
registered a fourfold increase, amounting to
Denar 660 million, and became almost equal to
500
0
3.2012 3.2013 3.2014 the amount of the net impairment of financial
Net impairment losses of financial assets
assets.
Impairment losses of financial assets
Impairment losses of non-financial assets Unlike last year's negative values, rates of
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by return on assets and equity amounted to 0.4%
banks. and 4%, respectively.
Table 6
Profitability and efficiency ratios of the banking system
in percentages
3.2013 3.2014
Rate of return on average assets (ROAA) -0.05 0.4
Rate of return on average equity (ROAE) -0.4 4.0
Cost-to-income ratio 60.9 58.7
Non-interest expenses/Total regular income 66.4 64.4
Labor costs /Total regular income 23.4 23.0
Labor costs /Operating expenses 38.5 39.1
Impairment losses of financial and non-financial assets /Net interest income 60.7 46.8
Net interest income /Average assets 3.2 3.3
Net interest income /Total regular income 66.0 68.7
Net interest income /Non-interest expenses 99.4 106.6
Non-interest income/Total regular income 39.5 37.1
Financial result/Total regular income -1.0 9.2
Source: NBRM, based on the data submitted by banks.
Ratios by groups of banks are shown in Annex 35.
66
For comparison, as of 31 March 2013, net impairment of financial assets (loans and similar claims), decreased by only 3.0%, on
an annual basis.
49
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Chart 75
Net interest margin67 increased by 0.3
Net interest margin
in percentages percentage points compared to March 2013, with
7 seven out of sixteen banks earning a higher net
6 interest margin than the net interest margin at
5 the level of the banking system.
3.8
4 3.5
3
2
1
0
Interest Interes Net interest margin
income/average expenses/average
interest-bearing interest-bearing
assets liabilities
3.2013 3.2014
II.13
XII.13
II.14
X.12
X.13
IV.12
VI.12
VII.12
VIII.12
I.13
IV.13
VI.13
VII.13
I.14
III.12
III.13
VIII.13
III.14
IX.12
XI.12
V.13
IX.13
XI.13
V.12
VI.12
VII.12
I.13
IV.13
VI.13
VII.13
III.12
VIII.12
II.13
III.13
VIII.13
I.14
II.14
III.14
IX.12
X.12
XI.12
V.13
IX.13
X.13
XI.13
V.12
XII.12
XII.13
50
Report on risks in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia in the first quarter of 2014
3
IV.12
VI.12
VII.12
I.13
IV.13
VI.13
VII.13
VIII.13
I.14
III.12
VIII.12
IX.12
II.13
III.13
II.14
III.14
X.12
XI.12
IX.13
X.13
XI.13
V.12
XII.12
V.13
XII.13
Denar interest rates spread
Denar interest rates spread with FX clause
Foreign currency interest rates spread
Total lonas and deposits interest rates spread
51
NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
ANNEXES
52