End Game

Explanations, by asset class

Stocks (Large Cap)

US T.Bond

US T.Bill

Baa Corporate Bond

Inflation Rate

Real Returns

Arithmetic Average Return

Geometric Average Return

Risk Premium

FAQ
How precise are the annual
numbers?

How good as the averages

as predictors?
Why do you keep the
maturity of the 10-year
bond unchanged, when
you compute the return on
the bond?
My objective in this spreadsheet is to compute the annual returns you
would have earned on major financial asset classses, on an annual basis,
inclusive of both cash payout during the year and the price appreciation.

Explanations, by asset class

I use the S&P 500, which was created in 1957, and then back fill the data using other
indices of large market cap companies that existed prior. Each year, I compute the
dividend yield by dividing the dividends paid by the index at the end of the prior year
and then add the price chage in the index, as a percent of the index in the prior year.

I use the 10-year US treasury bond, since it is the only longer maturity bond with an
uninterrupted history going back in time. For the data, I use the yields on a constant-
maturrity 10-year bond, which can be found on FRED (the Federal Reserve website). I
convert the yield into a return, by repricing the bond, issued at par at the prior year's
yield, with the new yield, while keeping the maturity constant at 10 years. Thus, if the
yield goes from 2.5% to 3%, I first price a 2.5%, 10 year coupon bond with a 3% interest
rate, and subtract this number from the par value of the bond which is $1000. That
gives me the price change. Adding the 3% coupon for the current year gives me the
total return.

I use the 3-month US treasury bill, again choosing it over the 6-month because of
longevity. I get the T.Bill rate at the end of each year from FRED and use it as my
erturn, since there should be no price change in this security. I use the average T.Bill
rate over the course of the year.
I obtain the yield on a Moody's Baa corporate bond from FRED and then compute the
return on the bond, using the same approach that I use for the US T.Bond.
I use the CPI for all urban consumers, reported on FRED.
For each of the data series. I computre a real return by removing the inflatin for the
year from the nominal return, using (1+ Nominal Rate)/ (1+Inflation Rate) -1.
A simple average of the annual returns over the specified period (10 yrs, 50 yrs etc.)

A compounded average of the returns over the period. This is most simply computed by
dividing the value you would have at the end of the period by the value at the beginning
and then computing the compouded average. To compute the cumulated value on both
stocks and bonds, I assume that dividends/coupons get reinvested back.
The risk premium is the difference in the annualized return on stocks and the
annualized return on T.Bonds and on T.Bills over the specified period.

FAQ
Since the S&P and US treasuries are liquid and the underlying data is widely dispersed,
the annual numbers are reliable.
The returns, especially on stocks and bonds, are noisy, with up years and down years.
The averages that have been computed come with error, and I have computed standard
errros in each of the numbers (especially the risk premiums). Note that even with the
longest data series, there is substantial standard error and it becomes explosively large
for shorter periods.
Normally, when you buy a 10-year bond and hold it for a year, you will end up with a 9-
year bond. While I could compute the return using a 9-year maturity, and the answer
will be fairly close to what I report, I want to keep the 10-year rmaturity going for
consistency in my risk premium computation. Put simply, think of the return on the 10-
year bond as the one you would have if the coupon changed, but the maturity is reset to
10 year at the end of the year.
 Returns by year

Date updated: 1-Jan-20

Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Historical returns: Stocks, Bonds & T.Bills with premiums US companies
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each ihttp://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Customized Geometric risk premium estimator
What is your riskfree rate? LT Estimates of risk premiums from
Enter your starting year 1981 are provided at the bottom of thi

Value of stocks in starting year: $ 7,934.26

Value of T.Bills in starting year: $ 453.46
Value of T.bonds in starting year: $ 448.17
Estimate of risk premium based on your inputs: 3.12%

Annual Returns on Investments in Value of $100 investe

S&P 500 S&P 500

(includes Baa Corporate (includes
Year dividends) 3-month T.Bill US T. Bond Bond dividends)3
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% $ 143.81
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% $ 131.88
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% $ 98.75
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% $ 55.46
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% $ 50.66
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% $ 75.99
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% $ 75.09
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% $ 110.18
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% $ 145.38
1937 -35.34% 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% $ 94.00
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% $ 121.53
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% $ 120.20
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% $ 107.37
1941 -12.77% 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% $ 93.66
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% $ 111.61
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 8.04% $ 139.59
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 6.57% $ 166.15
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 6.80% $ 225.67
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 2.51% $ 206.65

Page 5
 Returns by year

1947 5.20% 0.60% 0.92% 0.26% $ 217.39

1948 5.70% 1.05% 1.95% 3.44% $ 229.79
1949 18.30% 1.12% 4.66% 5.38% $ 271.85
1950 30.81% 1.20% 0.43% 4.24% $ 355.60
1951 23.68% 1.52% -0.30% -0.19% $ 439.80
1952 18.15% 1.72% 2.27% 4.44% $ 519.62
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% 1.62% $ 513.35
1954 52.56% 0.94% 3.29% 6.16% $ 783.18
1955 32.60% 1.73% -1.34% 2.04% $ 1,038.47
1956 7.44% 2.63% -2.26% -2.35% $ 1,115.73
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% -0.72% $ 999.05
1958 43.72% 1.77% -2.10% 6.43% $ 1,435.84
1959 12.06% 3.39% -2.65% 1.57% $ 1,608.95
1960 0.34% 2.88% 11.64% 6.66% $ 1,614.37
1961 26.64% 2.35% 2.06% 5.10% $ 2,044.40
1962 -8.81% 2.77% 5.69% 6.50% $ 1,864.26
1963 22.61% 3.16% 1.68% 5.46% $ 2,285.80
1964 16.42% 3.55% 3.73% 5.16% $ 2,661.02
1965 12.40% 3.95% 0.72% 3.19% $ 2,990.97
1966 -9.97% 4.86% 2.91% -3.45% $ 2,692.74
1967 23.80% 4.31% -1.58% 0.90% $ 3,333.69
1968 10.81% 5.34% 3.27% 4.85% $ 3,694.23
1969 -8.24% 6.67% -5.01% -2.03% $ 3,389.77
1970 3.56% 6.39% 16.75% 5.65% $ 3,510.49
1971 14.22% 4.33% 9.79% 14.00% $ 4,009.72
1972 18.76% 4.07% 2.82% 11.41% $ 4,761.76
1973 -14.31% 7.03% 3.66% 4.32% $ 4,080.44
1974 -25.90% 7.83% 1.99% -4.38% $ 3,023.54
1975 37.00% 5.78% 3.61% 11.05% $ 4,142.10
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% 19.75% $ 5,129.20
1977 -6.98% 5.27% 1.29% 9.95% $ 4,771.20
1978 6.51% 7.19% -0.78% 3.14% $ 5,081.77
1979 18.52% 10.07% 0.67% -2.01% $ 6,022.89
1980 31.74% 11.43% -2.99% -3.32% $ 7,934.26
1981 -4.70% 14.03% 8.20% 8.46% $ 7,561.16
1982 20.42% 10.61% 32.81% 29.05% $ 9,105.08
1983 22.34% 8.61% 3.20% 16.19% $ 11,138.90
1984 6.15% 9.52% 13.73% 15.62% $ 11,823.51
1985 31.24% 7.48% 25.71% 23.86% $ 15,516.60
1986 18.49% 5.98% 24.28% 21.49% $ 18,386.33

Page 6
 Returns by year

1987 5.81% 5.78% -4.96% 2.29% $ 19,455.08

1988 16.54% 6.67% 8.22% 15.12% $ 22,672.40
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% 15.79% $ 29,808.58
1990 -3.06% 7.49% 6.24% 6.14% $ 28,895.11
1991 30.23% 5.38% 15.00% 17.85% $ 37,631.51
1992 7.49% 3.43% 9.36% 12.17% $ 40,451.51
1993 9.97% 3.00% 14.21% 16.43% $ 44,483.33
1994 1.33% 4.25% -8.04% -1.32% $ 45,073.14
1995 37.20% 5.49% 23.48% 20.16% $ 61,838.19
1996 22.68% 5.01% 1.43% 4.79% $ 75,863.69
1997 33.10% 5.06% 9.94% 11.83% $ 100,977.34
1998 28.34% 4.78% 14.92% 7.95% $ 129,592.25
1999 20.89% 4.64% -8.25% 0.84% $ 156,658.05
2000 -9.03% 5.82% 16.66% 9.33% $ 142,508.98
2001 -11.85% 3.39% 5.57% 7.82% $ 125,622.01
2002 -21.97% 1.60% 15.12% 12.18% $ 98,027.82
2003 28.36% 1.01% 0.38% 13.53% $ 125,824.39
2004 10.74% 1.37% 4.49% 9.89% $ 139,341.42
2005 4.83% 3.15% 2.87% 4.92% $ 146,077.85
2006 15.61% 4.73% 1.96% 7.05% $ 168,884.34
2007 5.48% 4.35% 10.21% 3.15% $ 178,147.20
2008 -36.55% 1.37% 20.10% -5.07% $ 113,030.22
2009 25.94% 0.15% -11.12% 23.33% $ 142,344.87
2010 14.82% 0.14% 8.46% 8.35% $ 163,441.94
2011 2.10% 0.05% 16.04% 12.58% $ 166,871.56
2012 15.89% 0.09% 2.97% 10.12% $ 193,388.43
2013 32.15% 0.06% -9.10% -1.06% $ 255,553.31
2014 13.52% 0.03% 10.75% 10.38% $ 290,115.42
2015 1.38% 0.05% 1.28% -0.70% $ 294,115.79
2016 11.77% 0.32% 0.69% 10.37% $ 328,742.28
2017 21.61% 0.93% 2.80% 9.72% $ 399,768.64
2018 -4.23% 1.94% -0.02% -2.76% $ 382,870.94
2019 31.22% 1.55% 9.64% 15.33% $ 502,417.21

Arithmetic Average Historical Return

1928-2019 11.57% 3.40% 5.15% 7.22%
1970-2019 11.89% 4.64% 7.39% 9.46%
2010-2019 14.02% 0.52% 4.35% 7.23%

Page 7
 Returns by year

Geometric Average Historical Return

1928-2019 9.71% 3.35% 4.88% 6.96%
1970-2019 10.51% 4.58% 6.99% 9.18%
2010-2019 13.44% 0.51% 4.13% 7.06%

Page 8
 Returns by year

ompanies

ml

/variable.htm

mates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
provided at the bottom of this table.

Value of $100 invested at start of 1928 in Annual Risk Premium

Baa Corporate Stocks - Baa

3-month T.Bill4 US T. Bond5 Bond6 Stocks - Bills Stocks - Bonds Corp Bond
$ 103.08 $ 100.84 $ 103.22 40.73% 42.98% 40.59%
$ 106.34 $ 105.07 $ 106.33 -11.46% -12.50% -11.32%
$ 111.18 $ 109.85 $ 106.91 -29.67% -29.66% -25.66%
$ 113.74 $ 107.03 $ 90.14 -46.15% -41.28% -28.16%
$ 114.96 $ 116.44 $ 111.41 -9.71% -17.43% -32.23%
$ 116.06 $ 118.60 $ 125.86 49.02% 48.13% 37.02%
$ 116.39 $ 128.05 $ 149.54 -1.47% -9.15% -20.00%
$ 116.58 $ 133.78 $ 169.44 46.57% 42.27% 33.43%
$ 116.78 $ 140.49 $ 188.73 31.77% 26.93% 20.56%
$ 117.11 $ 142.43 $ 180.39 -35.61% -36.72% -30.92%
$ 117.18 $ 148.43 $ 197.05 29.22% 25.07% 20.05%
$ 117.24 $ 154.98 $ 212.78 -1.14% -5.51% -9.08%
$ 117.28 $ 163.35 $ 231.18 -10.71% -16.08% -19.32%
$ 117.43 $ 160.04 $ 242.76 -12.90% -10.75% -17.78%
$ 117.83 $ 163.72 $ 255.33 18.83% 16.88% 13.99%
$ 118.28 $ 167.79 $ 275.88 24.68% 22.57% 17.02%
$ 118.73 $ 172.12 $ 293.99 18.65% 16.45% 12.46%
$ 119.18 $ 178.67 $ 313.98 35.44% 32.02% 29.02%
$ 119.63 $ 184.26 $ 321.85 -8.81% -11.56% -10.94%

Page 9
 Returns by year

$ 120.35 $ 185.95 $ 322.70 4.60% 4.28% 4.94%

$ 121.61 $ 189.58 $ 333.79 4.66% 3.75% 2.27%
$ 122.96 $ 198.42 $ 351.74 17.19% 13.64% 12.93%
$ 124.44 $ 199.27 $ 366.65 29.60% 30.38% 26.57%
$ 126.33 $ 198.68 $ 365.95 22.16% 23.97% 23.87%
$ 128.51 $ 203.19 $ 382.20 16.43% 15.88% 13.71%
$ 130.94 $ 211.61 $ 388.39 -3.10% -5.35% -2.83%
$ 132.17 $ 218.57 $ 412.31 51.62% 49.27% 46.41%
$ 134.45 $ 215.65 $ 420.74 30.87% 33.93% 30.55%
$ 137.98 $ 210.79 $ 410.84 4.81% 9.70% 9.79%
$ 142.43 $ 225.11 $ 407.89 -13.68% -17.25% -9.74%
$ 144.95 $ 220.39 $ 434.11 41.95% 45.82% 37.29%
$ 149.86 $ 214.56 $ 440.95 8.67% 14.70% 10.48%
$ 154.18 $ 239.53 $ 470.33 -2.55% -11.30% -6.33%
$ 157.81 $ 244.46 $ 494.32 24.28% 24.58% 21.54%
$ 162.19 $ 258.38 $ 526.43 -11.58% -14.51% -15.31%
$ 167.31 $ 262.74 $ 555.19 19.45% 20.93% 17.15%
$ 173.25 $ 272.53 $ 583.85 12.87% 12.69% 11.25%
$ 180.09 $ 274.49 $ 602.47 8.45% 11.68% 9.21%
$ 188.84 $ 282.47 $ 581.72 -14.83% -12.88% -6.53%
$ 196.98 $ 278.01 $ 586.92 19.50% 25.38% 22.91%
$ 207.49 $ 287.11 $ 615.36 5.48% 7.54% 5.97%
$ 221.32 $ 272.71 $ 602.90 -14.91% -3.23% -6.22%
$ 235.47 $ 318.41 $ 636.96 -2.83% -13.19% -2.09%
$ 245.67 $ 349.57 $ 726.14 9.89% 4.43% 0.22%
$ 255.68 $ 359.42 $ 808.99 14.68% 15.94% 7.35%
$ 273.66 $ 372.57 $ 843.92 -21.34% -17.97% -18.63%
$ 295.08 $ 379.98 $ 806.95 -33.73% -27.89% -21.52%
$ 312.12 $ 393.68 $ 896.12 31.22% 33.39% 25.95%
$ 327.65 $ 456.61 $ 1,073.13 18.86% 7.85% 4.08%
$ 344.91 $ 462.50 $ 1,179.96 -12.25% -8.27% -16.93%
$ 369.71 $ 458.90 $ 1,216.98 -0.68% 7.29% 3.37%
$ 406.93 $ 461.98 $ 1,192.53 8.45% 17.85% 20.53%
$ 453.46 $ 448.17 $ 1,152.99 20.30% 34.72% 35.05%
$ 517.06 $ 484.91 $ 1,250.56 -18.73% -12.90% -13.16%
$ 571.94 $ 644.04 $ 1,613.88 9.80% -12.40% -8.63%
$ 621.19 $ 664.65 $ 1,875.23 13.73% 19.14% 6.14%
$ 680.35 $ 755.92 $ 2,168.13 -3.38% -7.59% -9.47%
$ 731.23 $ 950.29 $ 2,685.50 23.76% 5.52% 7.37%
$ 774.95 $ 1,181.06 $ 3,262.50 12.52% -5.79% -2.99%

Page 10
 Returns by year

$ 819.70 $ 1,122.47 $ 3,337.20 0.04% 10.77% 3.52%

$ 874.35 $ 1,214.78 $ 3,841.62 9.87% 8.31% 1.42%
$ 945.28 $ 1,429.72 $ 4,448.20 23.36% 13.78% 15.69%
$ 1,016.11 $ 1,518.87 $ 4,721.33 -10.56% -9.30% -9.20%
$ 1,070.73 $ 1,746.77 $ 5,564.25 24.86% 15.23% 12.38%
$ 1,107.47 $ 1,910.30 $ 6,241.54 4.06% -1.87% -4.68%
$ 1,140.67 $ 2,181.77 $ 7,267.12 6.97% -4.24% -6.46%
$ 1,189.11 $ 2,006.43 $ 7,171.25 -2.92% 9.36% 2.65%
$ 1,254.39 $ 2,477.55 $ 8,616.71 31.71% 13.71% 17.04%
$ 1,317.18 $ 2,512.94 $ 9,029.67 17.68% 21.25% 17.89%
$ 1,383.84 $ 2,762.71 $ 10,098.32 28.04% 23.16% 21.27%
$ 1,449.94 $ 3,174.95 $ 10,900.68 23.56% 13.42% 20.39%
$ 1,517.20 $ 2,912.88 $ 10,992.59 16.25% 29.14% 20.04%
$ 1,605.45 $ 3,398.03 $ 12,018.16 -14.85% -25.69% -18.36%
$ 1,659.84 $ 3,587.37 $ 12,957.88 -15.24% -17.42% -19.67%
$ 1,686.44 $ 4,129.65 $ 14,535.88 -23.57% -37.08% -34.14%
$ 1,703.49 $ 4,145.15 $ 16,502.87 27.34% 27.98% 14.82%
$ 1,726.86 $ 4,331.30 $ 18,134.78 9.37% 6.25% 0.85%
$ 1,781.19 $ 4,455.50 $ 19,026.57 1.69% 1.97% -0.08%
$ 1,865.39 $ 4,542.87 $ 20,367.63 10.89% 13.65% 8.56%
$ 1,946.59 $ 5,006.69 $ 21,009.29 1.13% -4.73% 2.33%
$ 1,973.16 $ 6,013.10 $ 19,945.02 -37.92% -56.65% -31.49%
$ 1,976.12 $ 5,344.65 $ 24,598.10 25.79% 37.05% 2.61%
$ 1,978.82 $ 5,796.96 $ 26,651.51 14.68% 6.36% 6.47%
$ 1,979.86 $ 6,726.52 $ 30,005.47 2.05% -13.94% -10.49%
$ 1,981.56 $ 6,926.40 $ 33,043.43 15.80% 12.92% 5.77%
$ 1,982.72 $ 6,295.79 $ 32,694.52 32.09% 41.25% 33.20%
$ 1,983.36 $ 6,972.34 $ 36,089.82 13.49% 2.78% 3.14%
$ 1,984.40 $ 7,061.89 $ 35,838.08 1.33% 0.09% 2.08%
$ 1,990.70 $ 7,110.65 $ 39,552.74 11.46% 11.08% 1.41%
$ 2,009.23 $ 7,309.87 $ 43,398.81 20.67% 18.80% 11.88%
$ 2,048.20 $ 7,308.65 $ 42,199.86 -6.17% -4.21% -1.46%
$ 2,079.94 $ 8,012.89 $ 48,668.87 29.67% 21.59% 15.89%
Risk Premium Standard Error
Stocks - T.BillStocks - T.BondStocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
8.18% 6.43% 2.08% 2.20%
7.26% 4.50% 2.38% 2.73%
13.51% 9.67% 3.85% 4.87%
Risk Premium

Page 11
 Returns by year

Stocks - T.BillStocks - T.Bonds

6.35% 4.83%
5.93% 3.52%
12.93% 9.31%

Page 12
 Returns by year

mium Annual Real Returns on

Historical S&P 500

risk Inflation (includes 3-month T. !0-year Baa Corp
premium Rate dividends)2 Bill (Real) T.Bonds Bonds
-1.15% 45.49% 4.28% 2.01% 4.42%
0.00% -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02%
-2.67% -23.07% 7.42% 7.41% 3.30%
-8.93% -38.33% 12.34% 7.00% -7.41%
-10.30% 1.85% 12.68% 21.28% 37.78%
-5.19% 58.20% 6.49% 7.43% 19.15%
3.48% -4.51% -3.09% 4.33% 14.82%
2.55% 43.09% -2.33% 1.87% 10.49%
1.03% 30.60% -0.85% 3.94% 10.25%
3.73% -37.66% -3.33% -2.26% -7.85%
-2.03% 31.96% 2.14% 6.37% 11.50%
-1.30% 0.21% 1.36% 5.79% 9.41%
0.72% -11.31% -0.68% 4.65% 7.87%
5.12% -17.02% -4.74% -6.79% -0.10%
10.92% 7.44% -9.54% -7.78% -5.18%
5.97% 18.02% -5.27% -3.28% 1.96%
1.64% 17.11% -1.24% 0.93% 4.85%
2.27% 32.80% -1.85% 1.50% 4.43%
8.48% -15.58% -7.46% -4.93% -5.50%

Page 13
 Returns by year

14.39% -8.03% -12.05% -11.78% -12.35%

7.69% -1.84% -6.17% -5.33% -3.95%
-0.97% 19.46% 2.11% 5.69% 6.41%
1.09% 29.40% 0.12% -0.65% 3.12%
7.86% 14.67% -5.88% -7.56% -7.46%
2.28% 15.52% -0.54% -0.01% 2.11%
0.82% -2.01% 1.07% 3.30% 0.80%
0.31% 52.09% 0.63% 2.97% 5.83%
-0.28% 32.97% 2.01% -1.06% 2.33%
1.53% 5.83% 1.09% -3.72% -3.82%
3.34% -13.35% -0.11% 3.34% -3.93%
2.73% 39.90% -0.93% -4.70% 3.60%
1.01% 10.94% 2.35% -3.62% 0.56%
6.11% 1.46% -1.11% 1.40% 10.04% 5.13%
6.62% 1.07% 25.30% 1.27% 0.98% 3.99%
5.97% 1.20% -9.89% 1.56% 4.44% 5.23%
6.36% 1.24% 21.11% 1.90% 0.44% 4.17%
6.53% 1.28% 14.95% 2.24% 2.42% 3.83%
6.66% 1.59% 10.65% 2.33% -0.85% 1.58%
6.11% 3.02% -12.61% 1.79% -0.10% -6.27%
6.57% 2.77% 20.46% 1.49% -4.24% -1.83%
6.60% 4.27% 6.28% 1.02% -0.96% 0.55%
6.33% 5.46% -12.99% 1.14% -9.93% -7.10%
5.90% 5.84% -2.15% 0.52% 10.31% -0.18%
5.87% 4.29% 9.52% 0.04% 5.27% 9.31%
6.08% 3.27% 14.99% 0.77% -0.44% 7.88%
5.50% 6.18% -19.29% 0.80% -2.37% -1.75%
4.64% 11.05% -33.28% -2.90% -8.16% -13.90%
5.17% 9.14% 25.52% -3.09% -5.07% 1.75%
5.22% 5.74% 17.10% -0.73% 9.68% 13.25%
4.93% 6.50% -12.66% -1.16% -4.89% 3.24%
4.97% 7.63% -1.04% -0.41% -7.81% -4.17%
5.21% 11.25% 6.53% -1.07% -9.51% -11.92%
5.73% 13.55% 16.02% -1.86% -14.57% -14.85%
5.37% 10.33% -13.63% 3.34% -1.94% -1.70%
5.10% 6.13% 13.46% 4.22% 25.14% 21.60%
5.34% 3.21% 18.53% 5.23% -0.01% 12.58%
5.12% 4.30% 1.77% 5.01% 9.04% 10.85%
5.13% 3.55% 26.74% 3.80% 21.41% 19.62%
4.97% 1.90% 16.29% 4.00% 21.97% 19.22%

Page 14
 Returns by year

5.07% 3.66% 2.07% 2.04% -8.32% -1.33%

5.12% 4.08% 11.97% 2.49% 3.98% 10.60%
5.24% 4.83% 25.42% 3.13% 12.27% 10.46%
5.00% 5.40% -8.03% 1.99% 0.79% 0.70%
5.14% 4.23% 24.94% 1.09% 10.33% 13.07%
5.03% 3.03% 4.33% 0.39% 6.15% 8.87%
4.90% 2.95% 6.81% 0.04% 10.94% 13.09%
4.97% 2.61% -1.25% 1.60% -10.37% -3.83%
5.08% 2.81% 33.45% 2.61% 20.11% 16.88%
5.30% 2.93% 19.19% 2.02% -1.46% 1.81%
5.53% 2.34% 30.06% 2.66% 7.43% 9.28%
5.63% 1.55% 26.38% 3.18% 13.16% 6.30%
5.96% 2.19% 18.30% 2.40% -10.22% -1.32%
5.51% 3.38% -12.00% 2.36% 12.84% 5.76%
5.17% 2.83% -14.27% 0.55% 2.67% 4.86%
4.53% 1.59% -23.18% 0.02% 13.32% 10.43%
4.82% 2.27% 25.51% -1.23% -1.85% 11.01%
4.84% 2.68% 7.86% -1.27% 1.77% 7.02%
4.80% 3.39% 1.39% -0.24% -0.51% 1.47%
4.91% 3.23% 12.00% 1.45% -1.23% 3.70%
4.79% 2.85% 2.56% 1.46% 7.15% 0.29%
3.88% 3.84% -38.90% -2.38% 15.66% -8.58%
4.29% -0.36% 26.38% 0.51% -10.80% 23.77%
4.31% 1.64% 12.97% -1.48% 6.71% 6.60%
4.10% 3.16% -1.03% -3.01% 12.48% 9.14%
4.20% 2.07% 13.54% -1.94% 0.88% 7.89%
4.62% 1.46% 30.24% -1.39% -10.42% -2.48%
4.60% 1.62% 11.71% -1.56% 8.98% 8.62%
4.54% 0.12% 1.26% -0.07% 1.16% -0.82%
4.62% 1.26% 10.38% -0.93% -0.56% 8.99%
4.77% 2.13% 19.07% -1.17% 0.66% 7.44%
4.66% 2.44% -6.51% -0.49% -2.40% -5.08%
4.83% 2.29% 28.29% -0.72% 7.18% 12.75%

Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return

1928-2018 8.41% 0.43% 2.17% 4.22%
1969-2018 6.88% 0.65% 2.99% 4.97%
2009-2018 11.80% -1.15% 0.67% 6.41%

Page 15
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

Year S&P 500 Dividends Dividend Yield T.Bond rate Return on bondAaa Bond Rate
1927 17.66 0.62 3.50% 3.17% 4.46%
1928 24.35 1.05 4.30% 3.45% 0.84% 4.61%
1929 21.45 0.88 4.10% 3.36% 4.20% 4.67%
1930 15.34 0.72 4.70% 3.22% 4.54% 4.52%
1931 8.12 0.50 6.10% 3.93% -2.56% 5.32%
1932 6.92 0.50 7.20% 3.35% 8.79% 4.59%
1933 9.97 0.41 4.10% 3.53% 1.86% 4.50%
1934 9.5 0.35 3.70% 3.01% 7.96% 3.81%
1935 13.43 0.51 3.80% 2.84% 4.47% 3.44%
1936 17.18 0.54 3.14% 2.59% 5.02% 3.10%
1937 10.55 0.56 5.30% 2.73% 1.38% 3.21%
1938 13.14 0.50 3.80% 2.56% 4.21% 3.08%
1939 12.46 0.54 4.30% 2.35% 4.41% 2.94%
1940 10.58 0.55 5.20% 2.01% 5.40% 2.71%
1941 8.69 0.54 6.20% 2.47% -2.02% 2.80%
1942 9.77 0.59 6.00% 2.49% 2.29% 2.81%
1943 11.67 0.55 4.70% 2.49% 2.49% 2.74%
1944 13.28 0.61 4.60% 2.48% 2.58% 2.70%
1945 17.36 0.68 3.90% 2.33% 3.80% 2.61%
1946 15.3 0.60 3.90% 2.24% 3.13% 2.61%
1947 15.3 0.80 5.20% 2.39% 0.92% 2.86%
1948 15.2 0.97 6.40% 2.44% 1.95% 2.79%
1949 16.79 1.19 7.10% 2.19% 4.66% 2.58%
1950 20.43 1.53 7.50% 2.39% 0.43% 2.67%
1951 23.77 1.50 6.30% 2.70% -0.30% 3.01%
1952 26.57 1.51 5.70% 2.75% 2.27% 2.97%
1953 24.81 1.44 5.80% 2.59% 4.14% 3.13%
1954 35.98 1.87 5.20% 2.51% 3.29% 2.90%
1955 45.48 2.23 4.90% 2.96% -1.34% 3.15%
1956 46.67 2.19 4.70% 3.59% -2.26% 3.75%
1957 39.99 1.80 4.50% 3.21% 6.80% 3.81%
1958 55.21 2.26 4.10% 3.86% -2.10% 4.08%
1959 59.89 1.98 3.30% 4.69% -2.65% 4.58%
1960 58.11 1.98 3.41% 3.84% 11.64% 4.35%
1961 71.55 2.04 2.85% 4.06% 2.06% 4.42%
1962 63.1 2.15 3.40% 3.86% 5.69% 4.24%
1963 75.02 2.35 3.13% 4.13% 1.68% 4.35%
1964 84.75 2.58 3.05% 4.18% 3.73% 4.44%

Page 16
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

1965 92.43 2.83 3.06% 4.62% 0.72% 4.68%

1966 80.33 2.88 3.59% 4.84% 2.91% 5.39%
1967 96.47 2.98 3.09% 5.70% -1.58% 6.19%
1968 103.86 3.04 2.93% 6.03% 3.27% 6.45%
1969 92.06 3.24 3.52% 7.65% -5.01% 7.72%
1970 92.15 3.19 3.46% 6.39% 16.75% 7.64%
1971 102.09 3.16 3.10% 5.93% 9.79% 7.25%
1972 118.05 3.19 2.70% 6.36% 2.82% 7.08%
1973 97.55 3.61 3.70% 6.74% 3.66% 7.68%
1974 68.56 3.72 5.43% 7.43% 1.99% 8.89%
1975 90.19 3.73 4.14% 8.00% 3.61% 8.79%
1976 107.46 4.22 3.93% 6.87% 15.98% 7.98%
1977 95.1 4.86 5.11% 7.69% 1.29% 8.19%
1978 96.11 5.18 5.39% 9.01% -0.78% 9.16%
1979 107.94 5.97 5.53% 10.39% 0.67% 10.74%
1980 135.76 6.44 4.74% 12.84% -2.99% 13.21%
1981 122.55 6.83 5.57% 13.72% 8.20% 14.23%
1982 140.64 6.93 4.93% 10.54% 32.81% 11.83%
1983 164.93 7.12 4.32% 11.83% 3.20% 12.57%
1984 167.24 7.83 4.68% 11.50% 13.73% 12.13%
1985 211.28 8.20 3.88% 9.26% 25.71% 10.16%
1986 242.17 8.19 3.38% 7.11% 24.28% 8.49%
1987 247.08 9.17 3.71% 8.99% -4.96% 10.11%
1988 277.72 10.22 3.68% 9.11% 8.22% 9.57%
1989 353.4 11.73 3.32% 7.84% 17.69% 8.86%
1990 330.22 12.35 3.74% 8.08% 6.24% 9.05%
1991 417.09 12.97 3.11% 7.09% 15.00% 8.31%
1992 435.71 12.64 2.90% 6.77% 9.36% 7.98%
1993 466.45 12.69 2.72% 5.77% 14.21% 6.93%
1994 459.27 13.36 2.91% 7.81% -8.04% 8.46%
1995 615.93 14.17 2.30% 5.71% 23.48% 6.82%
1996 740.74 14.89 2.01% 6.30% 1.43% 7.20%
1997 970.43 15.52 1.60% 5.81% 9.94% 6.76%
1998 1229.23 16.20 1.32% 4.65% 14.92% 6.22%
1999 1469.25 16.71 1.14% 6.44% -8.25% 7.55%
2000 1320.28 16.27 1.23% 5.11% 16.66% 7.21%
2001 1148.09 15.74 1.37% 5.05% 5.57% 6.77%
2002 879.82 16.08 1.83% 3.82% 15.12% 6.21%
2003 1111.91 17.39 1.56% 4.25% 0.38% 5.62%
2004 1211.92 19.44 1.60% 4.22% 4.49% 5.47%

Page 17
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

2005 1248.29 22.22 1.78% 4.39% 2.87% 5.37%

2006 1418.3 24.88 1.75% 4.70% 1.96% 5.32%
2007 1468.36 27.73 1.89% 4.02% 10.21% 5.49%
2008 903.25 28.39 3.14% 2.21% 20.10% 5.05%
2009 1115.1 22.41 2.01% 3.84% -11.12% 5.26%
2010 1257.64 22.73 1.81% 3.29% 8.46% 5.02%
2011 1257.6 26.43 2.10% 1.88% 16.04% 3.93%
2012 1426.19 31.25 2.19% 1.76% 2.97% 3.65%
2013 1848.36 36.28 1.96% 3.04% -9.10% 4.62%
2014 2058.9 39.44 1.92% 2.17% 10.75% 3.79%
2015 2043.9 43.39 2.12% 2.27% 1.28% 3.97%
2016 2238.83 45.70 2.04% 2.45% 0.69% 4.06%
2017 2673.61 48.93 1.83% 2.41% 2.80% 3.51%
2018 2506.85 53.75 2.14% 2.69% -0.02% 4.02%
2019 3230.78 58.8 1.82% 1.92% 9.64% 3.01%

Page 18
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

Return on AaaBaa Bond RateReturn on Baa

Returns on Real Estate Jan 1 notes
5.32%
3.28% 5.60% 3.22% 1.49%
4.14% 5.95% 3.02% -2.06%
5.86% 6.71% 0.54% -4.30%
-1.56% 10.42% -15.68% -8.15%
11.07% 8.42% 23.59% -10.47%
5.30% 7.75% 12.97% -3.81%
10.15% 6.23% 18.82% 2.91%
6.90% 5.30% 13.31% 9.77%
6.33% 4.53% 11.38% 3.22%
2.17% 5.73% -4.42% 2.56%
4.31% 5.27% 9.24% -0.87%
4.28% 4.92% 7.98% -1.30%
4.93% 4.45% 8.65% 3.31%
1.93% 4.38% 5.01% -8.38%
2.71% 4.28% 5.18% 3.33%
3.42% 3.82% 8.04% 11.45%
3.09% 3.49% 6.57% 16.58%
3.48% 3.10% 6.80% 11.78%
2.61% 3.17% 2.51% 24.10%
0.46% 3.52% 0.26% 21.26%
3.46% 3.53% 3.44% 2.06%
4.62% 3.31% 5.38% 0.09%
1.80% 3.20% 4.24% 3.64%
-0.23% 3.61% -0.19% 6.05%
3.35% 3.51% 4.44% 4.41%
1.61% 3.74% 1.62% 11.52%
5.10% 3.45% 6.16% 0.92%
0.78% 3.62% 2.04% 0.00%
-1.78% 4.37% -2.35% 0.91%
3.26% 5.03% -0.72% 2.72%
1.63% 4.85% 6.43% 0.66%
0.14% 5.28% 1.57% 0.11%
6.41% 5.10% 6.66% 0.77%
3.79% 5.10% 5.10% 0.98%
5.86% 4.92% 6.50% 0.32%
3.36% 4.85% 5.46% 2.14%
3.64% 4.81% 5.16% 1.26%

Page 19
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

2.56% 5.02% 3.19% 1.66%

-0.70% 6.18% -3.45% 1.22%
-0.45% 6.93% 0.90% 2.32%
4.32% 7.23% 4.85% 4.13%
-2.18% 8.65% -2.03% 6.99%
8.27% 9.12% 5.65% 8.22%
10.35% 8.38% 14.00% 4.24%
8.44% 7.93% 11.41% 2.98%
3.00% 8.48% 4.32% 3.42%
-0.12% 10.63% -4.38% 10.07%
9.54% 10.56% 11.05% 6.76%
14.23% 9.12% 19.75% 8.20%
6.58% 8.99% 9.95% 14.66%
2.01% 9.94% 3.14% 15.71%
-0.25% 12.06% -2.01% 13.74%
-2.55% 15.14% -3.32% 7.40%
7.94% 16.55% 8.46% 5.08%
27.89% 14.14% 29.05% 0.57%
7.74% 13.75% 16.19% 4.75%
15.04% 13.40% 15.62% 4.67%
24.15% 11.58% 23.86% 7.47%
21.12% 9.97% 21.49% 9.62%
-1.42% 11.29% 2.29% 7.87%
13.49% 10.65% 15.12% 7.21%
14.15% 9.82% 15.79% 4.38%
7.64% 10.43% 6.14% -0.70%
13.95% 9.26% 17.85% -0.18%
10.53% 8.81% 12.17% 0.84%
15.38% 7.69% 16.43% 2.16%
-3.13% 9.10% -1.32% 2.52%
20.08% 7.49% 20.16% 1.81%
4.18% 7.89% 4.79% 2.43%
10.32% 7.32% 11.83% 4.03%
10.69% 7.23% 7.95% 6.44%
-2.89% 8.19% 0.84% 7.69%
9.92% 8.02% 9.33% 9.25%
10.33% 8.05% 7.82% 6.68%
10.85% 7.45% 12.18% 9.56%
10.63% 6.60% 13.53% 9.82%
6.75% 6.15% 9.89% 13.64%

Page 20
 S&P 500 & Raw Data

6.23% 6.32% 4.92% 13.51%

5.75% 6.22% 7.05% 1.73%
4.04% 6.65% 3.15% -5.40%
8.88% 8.43% -5.07% -12.00%
3.45% 6.37% 23.33% -3.85%
7.11% 6.10% 8.35% -4.12%
13.89% 5.25% 12.58% -3.90%
6.24% 4.63% 10.12% 6.45%
-3.98% 5.38% -1.06% 10.71%
11.42% 4.74% 10.38% 4.52%
2.33% 5.46% -0.70% 5.22%
3.24% 4.83% 10.37% 5.33%
8.63% 4.22% 9.72% 6.23%
-0.62% 5.13% -2.76% 4.55%
12.63% 3.88% 15.33% 4.55% Used indicated dividend

Page 21
 T. Bond yield & return

Bond used: US treasury 10-year bond at end of each year

Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED)
Computation To compute the return on a constant maturity bond, I add two components - the promised coupon at th
The return on the 10-year bond for 1928 = 3.17% (Coupon rate promised at the end of 1927) - Price c

Year T.Bond rate Return on bond

1927 3.17%
1928 3.45% 0.84%
1929 3.36% 4.20%
1930 3.22% 4.54%
1931 3.93% -2.56%
1932 3.35% 8.79%
1933 3.53% 1.86%
1934 3.01% 7.96%
1935 2.84% 4.47%
1936 2.59% 5.02%
1937 2.73% 1.38%
1938 2.56% 4.21%
1939 2.35% 4.41%
1940 2.01% 5.40%
1941 2.47% -2.02%
1942 2.49% 2.29%
1943 2.49% 2.49%
1944 2.48% 2.58%
1945 2.33% 3.80%
1946 2.24% 3.13%
1947 2.39% 0.92%
1948 2.44% 1.95%
1949 2.19% 4.66%
1950 2.39% 0.43%
1951 2.70% -0.30%
1952 2.75% 2.27%
1953 2.59% 4.14%
1954 2.51% 3.29%
1955 2.96% -1.34%
1956 3.59% -2.26%
1957 3.21% 6.80%
1958 3.86% -2.10%
1959 4.69% -2.65%

Page 22
 T. Bond yield & return

1960 3.84% 11.64%

1961 4.06% 2.06%
1962 3.86% 5.69%
1963 4.13% 1.68%
1964 4.18% 3.73%
1965 4.62% 0.72%
1966 4.84% 2.91%
1967 5.70% -1.58%
1968 6.03% 3.27%
1969 7.65% -5.01%
1970 6.39% 16.75%
1971 5.93% 9.79%
1972 6.36% 2.82%
1973 6.74% 3.66%
1974 7.43% 1.99%
1975 8.00% 3.61%
1976 6.87% 15.98%
1977 7.69% 1.29%
1978 9.01% -0.78%
1979 10.39% 0.67%
1980 12.84% -2.99%
1981 13.72% 8.20%
1982 10.54% 32.81%
1983 11.83% 3.20%
1984 11.50% 13.73%
1985 9.26% 25.71%
1986 7.11% 24.28%
1987 8.99% -4.96%
1988 9.11% 8.22%
1989 7.84% 17.69%
1990 8.08% 6.24%
1991 7.09% 15.00%
1992 6.77% 9.36%
1993 5.77% 14.21%
1994 7.81% -8.04%
1995 5.71% 23.48%
1996 6.30% 1.43%
1997 5.81% 9.94%
1998 4.65% 14.92%
1999 6.44% -8.25%

Page 23
 T. Bond yield & return

2000 5.11% 16.66%

2001 5.05% 5.57%
2002 3.82% 15.12%
2003 4.25% 0.38%
2004 4.22% 4.49%
2005 4.39% 2.87%
2006 4.70% 1.96%
2007 4.02% 10.21%
2008 2.21% 20.10%
2009 3.84% -11.12%
2010 3.29% 8.46%
2011 1.88% 16.04%
2012 1.76% 2.97%
2013 3.04% -9.10%
2014 2.17% 10.75%
2015 2.27% 1.28%
2016 2.45% 0.69%
2017 2.41% 2.80%
2018 2.69% -0.02%
2019 1.92% 9.64%

Page 24
 T. Bond yield & return

- the promised coupon at the start of the year and the price change due to interest rate changes.
the end of 1927) - Price change on a bond with a coupon rate of 3.17%, when the interest rate goes to 3.45%.

Page 25
 T. Bill rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

TB3MS 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual
observation_date TB3MS
1934-01-01 0.28
1935-01-01 0.17
1936-01-01 0.17
1937-01-01 0.28
1938-01-01 0.07
1939-01-01 0.05
1940-01-01 0.04
1941-01-01 0.13
1942-01-01 0.34
1943-01-01 0.38
1944-01-01 0.38
1945-01-01 0.38
1946-01-01 0.38
1947-01-01 0.60
1948-01-01 1.05
1949-01-01 1.12
1950-01-01 1.20
1951-01-01 1.52
1952-01-01 1.72
1953-01-01 1.89
1954-01-01 0.94
1955-01-01 1.73
1956-01-01 2.63
1957-01-01 3.23
1958-01-01 1.77
1959-01-01 3.39
1960-01-01 2.88
1961-01-01 2.35
1962-01-01 2.77
1963-01-01 3.16
1964-01-01 3.55
1965-01-01 3.95
1966-01-01 4.86
1967-01-01 4.31
1968-01-01 5.34

Page 26
 T. Bill rates

1969-01-01 6.67
1970-01-01 6.39
1971-01-01 4.33
1972-01-01 4.07
1973-01-01 7.03
1974-01-01 7.83
1975-01-01 5.78
1976-01-01 4.97
1977-01-01 5.27
1978-01-01 7.19
1979-01-01 10.07
1980-01-01 11.43
1981-01-01 14.03
1982-01-01 10.61
1983-01-01 8.61
1984-01-01 9.52
1985-01-01 7.48
1986-01-01 5.98
1987-01-01 5.78
1988-01-01 6.67
1989-01-01 8.11
1990-01-01 7.49
1991-01-01 5.38
1992-01-01 3.43
1993-01-01 3.00
1994-01-01 4.25
1995-01-01 5.49
1996-01-01 5.01
1997-01-01 5.06
1998-01-01 4.78
1999-01-01 4.64
2000-01-01 5.82
2001-01-01 3.39
2002-01-01 1.60
2003-01-01 1.01
2004-01-01 1.37
2005-01-01 3.15
2006-01-01 4.73
2007-01-01 4.35
2008-01-01 1.37
2009-01-01 0.15
2010-01-01 0.14
2011-01-01 0.05
2012-01-01 0.09
2013-01-01 0.06
2014-01-01 0.03

Page 27
 T. Bill rates

2015-01-01 0.05
2016-01-01 0.32
2017-01-01 0.93
2018-01-01 1.94
2019-01-01 2.06
1/1/2020 1.52

Page 28
 T. Bill rates

easury Bill: Secondary Market Rate, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

0.28%
0.17%
0.17%
0.28%
0.07%
0.05%
0.04%
0.13%
0.34%
0.38%
0.38%
0.38%
0.38%
0.60%
1.05%
1.12%
1.20%
1.52%
1.72%
1.89%
0.94%
1.73%
2.63%
3.23%
1.77%
3.39%
2.88%
2.35%
2.77%
3.16%
3.55%
3.95%
4.86%
4.31%
5.34%

Page 29
T. Bill rates

6.67%
6.39%
4.33%
4.07%
7.03%
7.83%
5.78%
4.97%
5.27%
7.19%
10.07%
11.43%
14.03%
10.61%
8.61%
9.52%
7.48%
5.98%
5.78%
6.67%
8.11%
7.49%
5.38%
3.43%
3.00%
4.25%
5.49%
5.01%
5.06%
4.78%
4.64%
5.82%
3.39%
1.60%
1.01%
1.37%
3.15%
4.73%
4.35%
1.37%
0.15%
0.14%
0.05%
0.09%
0.06%
0.03%

Page 30
T. Bill rates

0.05%
0.32%
0.93%
1.94%
2.06%
1.52%

Page 31
 Inflation Rate

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CPIAUCNS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, Percent Change fro

Frequency: Annual
observation_dCPIAUCNS
1914-01-01 1.3 1.35%
1915-01-01 0.9 0.92%
1916-01-01 7.7 7.67%
1917-01-01 17.8 17.84%
1918-01-01 17.3 17.28%
1919-01-01 15.2 15.24%
1920-01-01 15.6 15.63%
1921-01-01 -10.9 -10.94%
1922-01-01 -6.2 -6.16%
1923-01-01 1.8 1.79%
1924-01-01 0.4 0.44%
1925-01-01 2.4 2.43%
1926-01-01 0.9 0.90%
1927-01-01 -1.9 -1.93%
1928-01-01 -1.2 -1.15%
1929-01-01 0.0 0.00%
1930-01-01 -2.7 -2.67%
1931-01-01 -8.9 -8.93%
1932-01-01 -10.3 -10.30%
1933-01-01 -5.2 -5.19%
1934-01-01 3.5 3.48%
1935-01-01 2.6 2.55%
1936-01-01 1.0 1.03%
1937-01-01 3.7 3.73%
1938-01-01 -2.0 -2.03%
1939-01-01 -1.3 -1.30%
1940-01-01 0.7 0.72%
1941-01-01 5.1 5.12%
1942-01-01 10.9 10.92%
1943-01-01 6.0 5.97%
1944-01-01 1.6 1.64%
1945-01-01 2.3 2.27%
1946-01-01 8.5 8.48%
1947-01-01 14.4 14.39%
1948-01-01 7.7 7.69%

Page 32
 Inflation Rate

1949-01-01 -1.0 -0.97%

1950-01-01 1.1 1.09%
1951-01-01 7.9 7.86%
1952-01-01 2.3 2.28%
1953-01-01 0.8 0.82%
1954-01-01 0.3 0.31%
1955-01-01 -0.3 -0.28%
1956-01-01 1.5 1.53%
1957-01-01 3.3 3.34%
1958-01-01 2.7 2.73%
1959-01-01 1.0 1.01%
1960-01-01 1.5 1.46%
1961-01-01 1.1 1.07%
1962-01-01 1.2 1.20%
1963-01-01 1.2 1.24%
1964-01-01 1.3 1.28%
1965-01-01 1.6 1.59%
1966-01-01 3.0 3.02%
1967-01-01 2.8 2.77%
1968-01-01 4.3 4.27%
1969-01-01 5.5 5.46%
1970-01-01 5.8 5.84%
1971-01-01 4.3 4.29%
1972-01-01 3.3 3.27%
1973-01-01 6.2 6.18%
1974-01-01 11.1 11.05%
1975-01-01 9.1 9.14%
1976-01-01 5.7 5.74%
1977-01-01 6.5 6.50%
1978-01-01 7.6 7.63%
1979-01-01 11.3 11.25%
1980-01-01 13.5 13.55%
1981-01-01 10.3 10.33%
1982-01-01 6.1 6.13%
1983-01-01 3.2 3.21%
1984-01-01 4.3 4.30%
1985-01-01 3.5 3.55%
1986-01-01 1.9 1.90%
1987-01-01 3.7 3.66%
1988-01-01 4.1 4.08%
1989-01-01 4.8 4.83%
1990-01-01 5.4 5.40%
1991-01-01 4.2 4.23%
1992-01-01 3.0 3.03%
1993-01-01 3.0 2.95%
1994-01-01 2.6 2.61%

Page 33
 Inflation Rate

1995-01-01 2.8 2.81%

1996-01-01 2.9 2.93%
1997-01-01 2.3 2.34%
1998-01-01 1.6 1.55%
1999-01-01 2.2 2.19%
2000-01-01 3.4 3.38%
2001-01-01 2.8 2.83%
2002-01-01 1.6 1.59%
2003-01-01 2.3 2.27%
2004-01-01 2.7 2.68%
2005-01-01 3.4 3.39%
2006-01-01 3.2 3.23%
2007-01-01 2.9 2.85%
2008-01-01 3.8 3.84%
2009-01-01 -0.4 -0.36%
2010-01-01 1.6 1.64%
2011-01-01 3.2 3.16%
2012-01-01 2.1 2.07%
2013-01-01 1.5 1.46%
2014-01-01 1.6 1.62%
2015-01-01 0.1 0.12%
2016-01-01 1.3 1.26%
2017-01-01 2.1 2.13%
2018-01-01 2.4 2.44%
2019-01-01 #N/A

Page 34
 Inflation Rate

erage, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index 1982-1984=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 35
 Summary for ppt

Arithmetic Average Geometric Average

Stocks - T. BillsStocks - T. BondsStocks - T. BillsStocks - T. Bonds
1928-2019 8.18% 6.43% 6.35% 4.83%
Std Error 2.08% 2.20%
1970-2019 7.26% 4.50% 5.93% 3.52%
Std Error 2.38% 2.73%
2010-2019 13.51% 9.67% 12.93% 9.31%
Std Error 3.85% 4.87%

Page 36
 Summary for ppt

- T. Bonds

Page 37
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

Home Price data from Robert Shiller's website. FRED Graph Observations
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CSUSHPINSA S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Natio

Date From fig2.1Rev Chg in House Price
1890 3.56 Frequency: Annual
1891 3.21 -9.79% observation_dCSUSHPINSA
1892 3.27 1.81% 1988-01-01 7.2
1893 3.41 4.26% 1989-01-01 4.4
1894 3.97 16.52% 1990-01-01 -0.7
1895 3.60 -9.21% 1991-01-01 -0.2
1896 3.12 -13.37% 1992-01-01 0.8
1897 3.22 3.16% 1993-01-01 2.2
1898 3.43 6.49% 1994-01-01 2.5
1899 3.28 -4.40% 1995-01-01 1.8
1900 3.75 14.34% 1996-01-01 2.4
1901 3.15 -16.10% 1997-01-01 4.0
1902 3.71 17.90% 1998-01-01 6.4
1903 3.77 1.56% 1999-01-01 7.7
1904 3.94 4.62% 2000-01-01 9.3
1905 3.45 -12.37% 2001-01-01 6.7
1906 4.10 18.66% 2002-01-01 9.6
1907 4.52 10.34% 2003-01-01 9.8
1908 4.08 -9.76% 2004-01-01 13.6
1909 3.99 -2.28% 2005-01-01 13.5
1910 4.31 8.01% 2006-01-01 1.7
1911 4.21 -2.29% 2007-01-01 -5.4
1912 4.37 3.86% 2008-01-01 -12.0
1913 4.37 0.00% 2009-01-01 -3.9
1914 4.53 3.72% 2010-01-01 -4.1
1915 4.16 -8.19% 2011-01-01 -3.9
1916 4.56 9.48% 2012-01-01 6.5
1917 4.65 2.04% 2013-01-01 10.7
1918 4.94 6.37% 2014-01-01 4.5
1919 5.44 9.98% 2015-01-01 5.2
1920 5.96 9.61% 2016-01-01 5.3
1921 5.83 -2.24% 2017-01-01 6.2
1922 5.91 1.39% 2018-01-01 4.5
1923 5.99 1.47% 2019-01-01 #N/A
1924 6.01 0.19%
1925 6.32 5.22%
1926 6.06 -4.04%

Page 38
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

1927 5.84 -3.73%

1928 5.92 1.49%
1929 5.80 -2.06%
1930 5.55 -4.30%
1931 5.10 -8.15%
1932 4.57 -10.47%
1933 4.39 -3.81%
1934 4.52 2.91%
1935 4.96 9.77%
1936 5.12 3.22%
1937 5.25 2.56%
1938 5.21 -0.87%
1939 5.14 -1.30%
1940 5.31 3.31%
1941 4.86 -8.38%
1942 5.03 3.33%
1943 5.60 11.45%
1944 6.53 16.58%
1945 7.30 11.78%
1946 9.06 24.10%
1947 10.99 21.26%
1948 11.21 2.06%
1949 11.22 0.09%
1950 11.63 3.64%
1951 12.33 6.05%
1952 12.88 4.41%
1953 14.36 11.52%
1954 14.49 0.92%
1955 14.49 0.00%
1956 14.62 0.91%
1957 15.02 2.72%
1958 15.12 0.66%
1959 15.14 0.11%
1960 15.25 0.77%
1961 15.40 0.98%
1962 15.45 0.32%
1963 15.78 2.14%
1964 15.98 1.26%
1965 16.25 1.66%
1966 16.45 1.22%
1967 16.83 2.32%
1968 17.52 4.13%
1969 18.75 6.99%
1970 20.29 8.22%
1971 21.15 4.24%
1972 21.78 2.98%

Page 39
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

1973 22.53 3.42%

1974 24.79 10.07%
1975 26.47 6.76%
1976 28.64 8.20%
1977 32.84 14.66%
1978 38.00 15.71%
1979 43.22 13.74%
1980 46.42 7.40%
1981 48.78 5.08%
1982 49.06 0.57%
1983 51.39 4.75%
1984 53.79 4.67%
1985 57.81 7.47%
1986 63.37 9.62%
1987 68.36 7.87%
1988 73.29 7.21%
1989 76.50 4.38%
1990 75.97 -0.69%
1991 75.83 -0.18%
1992 76.47 0.84%
1993 78.12 2.16%
1994 80.08 2.51%
1995 81.53 1.81%
1996 83.51 2.43%
1997 86.88 4.04%
1998 92.47 6.43%
1999 99.58 7.69%
2000 108.79 9.25%
2001 116.06 6.68%
2002 127.15 9.56%
2003 139.63 9.82%
2004 158.68 13.64%
2005 180.11 13.51%
2006 183.24 1.74%
2007 173.35 -5.40%
2008 152.55 -12.00%
2009 146.67 -3.85%
2010 140.64 -4.11%
2011 135.16 -3.90%
2012 143.88 6.45%
2013 159.29 10.71%
2014 166.49 4.52%
2015 175.18 5.22%
2016 184.52 5.33%
2017 196.01 6.23%
2018 204.92 4.55%

Page 40
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

2019 211.96 3.44% End of October 2019

Page 41
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

bservations
Economic Data
.stlouisfed.org
d.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
rch Division
Bank of St. Louis

&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, Percent Change from Year Ago of (Index Jan 2000=100), Annual, Not Seaso

7.21%
4.38%
-0.70%
-0.18%
0.84%
2.16%
2.52%
1.81%
2.43%
4.03%
6.44%
7.69%
9.25%
6.68%
9.56%
9.82%
13.64%
13.51%
1.73%
-5.40%
-12.00%
-3.85%
-4.12%
-3.90%
6.45%
10.71%
4.52%
5.22%
5.33%
6.23%
4.55%

Page 42
 Home Prices (Raw Data)

=100), Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 43
 Moody's Rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

AAA Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Annual
observation_dAAA % Rate
1919-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1920-01-01 6.26 6.26%
1921-01-01 5.50 5.50%
1922-01-01 5.08 5.08%
1923-01-01 5.09 5.09%
1924-01-01 4.95 4.95%
1925-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1926-01-01 4.68 4.68%
1927-01-01 4.46 4.46%
1928-01-01 4.61 4.61%
1929-01-01 4.67 4.67%
1930-01-01 4.52 4.52%
1931-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1932-01-01 4.59 4.59%
1933-01-01 4.50 4.50%
1934-01-01 3.81 3.81%
1935-01-01 3.44 3.44%
1936-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1937-01-01 3.21 3.21%
1938-01-01 3.08 3.08%
1939-01-01 2.94 2.94%
1940-01-01 2.71 2.71%
1941-01-01 2.80 2.80%
1942-01-01 2.81 2.81%
1943-01-01 2.74 2.74%
1944-01-01 2.70 2.70%
1945-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1946-01-01 2.61 2.61%
1947-01-01 2.86 2.86%
1948-01-01 2.79 2.79%
1949-01-01 2.58 2.58%
1950-01-01 2.67 2.67%
1951-01-01 3.01 3.01%
1952-01-01 2.97 2.97%
1953-01-01 3.13 3.13%

Page 44
 Moody's Rates

1954-01-01 2.90 2.90%

1955-01-01 3.15 3.15%
1956-01-01 3.75 3.75%
1957-01-01 3.81 3.81%
1958-01-01 4.08 4.08%
1959-01-01 4.58 4.58%
1960-01-01 4.35 4.35%
1961-01-01 4.42 4.42%
1962-01-01 4.24 4.24%
1963-01-01 4.35 4.35%
1964-01-01 4.44 4.44%
1965-01-01 4.68 4.68%
1966-01-01 5.39 5.39%
1967-01-01 6.19 6.19%
1968-01-01 6.45 6.45%
1969-01-01 7.72 7.72%
1970-01-01 7.64 7.64%
1971-01-01 7.25 7.25%
1972-01-01 7.08 7.08%
1973-01-01 7.68 7.68%
1974-01-01 8.89 8.89%
1975-01-01 8.79 8.79%
1976-01-01 7.98 7.98%
1977-01-01 8.19 8.19%
1978-01-01 9.16 9.16%
1979-01-01 10.74 10.74%
1980-01-01 13.21 13.21%
1981-01-01 14.23 14.23%
1982-01-01 11.83 11.83%
1983-01-01 12.57 12.57%
1984-01-01 12.13 12.13%
1985-01-01 10.16 10.16%
1986-01-01 8.49 8.49%
1987-01-01 10.11 10.11%
1988-01-01 9.57 9.57%
1989-01-01 8.86 8.86%
1990-01-01 9.05 9.05%
1991-01-01 8.31 8.31%
1992-01-01 7.98 7.98%
1993-01-01 6.93 6.93%
1994-01-01 8.46 8.46%
1995-01-01 6.82 6.82%
1996-01-01 7.20 7.20%
1997-01-01 6.76 6.76%
1998-01-01 6.22 6.22%
1999-01-01 7.55 7.55%

Page 45
 Moody's Rates

2000-01-01 7.21 7.21%

2001-01-01 6.77 6.77%
2002-01-01 6.21 6.21%
2003-01-01 5.62 5.62%
2004-01-01 5.47 5.47%
2005-01-01 5.37 5.37%
2006-01-01 5.32 5.32%
2007-01-01 5.49 5.49%
2008-01-01 5.05 5.05%
2009-01-01 5.26 5.26%
2010-01-01 5.02 5.02%
2011-01-01 3.93 3.93%
2012-01-01 3.65 3.65%
2013-01-01 4.62 4.62%
2014-01-01 3.79 3.79%
2015-01-01 3.97 3.97%
2016-01-01 4.06 4.06%
2017-01-01 3.51 3.51%
2018-01-01 4.02 4.02%
2019-01-01 3.01 3.01%

Page 46
 Moody's Rates

FRED Graph Observations

Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
Help: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

onally Adjusted BAA Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield, Percent, Annual, Not Seasona

Frequency: Annual
observation_date BAA
1919-01-01 7.77 7.77%
1920-01-01 8.56 8.56%
1921-01-01 7.61 7.61%
1922-01-01 7.02 7.02%
1923-01-01 7.38 7.38%
1924-01-01 6.46 6.46%
1925-01-01 6.15 6.15%
1926-01-01 5.68 5.68%
1927-01-01 5.32 5.32%
1928-01-01 5.60 5.60%
1929-01-01 5.95 5.95%
1930-01-01 6.71 6.71%
1931-01-01 10.42 10.42%
1932-01-01 8.42 8.42%
1933-01-01 7.75 7.75%
1934-01-01 6.23 6.23%
1935-01-01 5.30 5.30%
1936-01-01 4.53 4.53%
1937-01-01 5.73 5.73%
1938-01-01 5.27 5.27%
1939-01-01 4.92 4.92%
1940-01-01 4.45 4.45%
1941-01-01 4.38 4.38%
1942-01-01 4.28 4.28%
1943-01-01 3.82 3.82%
1944-01-01 3.49 3.49%
1945-01-01 3.10 3.10%
1946-01-01 3.17 3.17%
1947-01-01 3.52 3.52%
1948-01-01 3.53 3.53%
1949-01-01 3.31 3.31%
1950-01-01 3.20 3.20%
1951-01-01 3.61 3.61%
1952-01-01 3.51 3.51%
1953-01-01 3.74 3.74%

Page 47
 Moody's Rates

1954-01-01 3.45 3.45%

1955-01-01 3.62 3.62%
1956-01-01 4.37 4.37%
1957-01-01 5.03 5.03%
1958-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1959-01-01 5.28 5.28%
1960-01-01 5.10 5.10%
1961-01-01 5.10 5.10%
1962-01-01 4.92 4.92%
1963-01-01 4.85 4.85%
1964-01-01 4.81 4.81%
1965-01-01 5.02 5.02%
1966-01-01 6.18 6.18%
1967-01-01 6.93 6.93%
1968-01-01 7.23 7.23%
1969-01-01 8.65 8.65%
1970-01-01 9.12 9.12%
1971-01-01 8.38 8.38%
1972-01-01 7.93 7.93%
1973-01-01 8.48 8.48%
1974-01-01 10.63 10.63%
1975-01-01 10.56 10.56%
1976-01-01 9.12 9.12%
1977-01-01 8.99 8.99%
1978-01-01 9.94 9.94%
1979-01-01 12.06 12.06%
1980-01-01 15.14 15.14%
1981-01-01 16.55 16.55%
1982-01-01 14.14 14.14%
1983-01-01 13.75 13.75%
1984-01-01 13.40 13.40%
1985-01-01 11.58 11.58%
1986-01-01 9.97 9.97%
1987-01-01 11.29 11.29%
1988-01-01 10.65 10.65%
1989-01-01 9.82 9.82%
1990-01-01 10.43 10.43%
1991-01-01 9.26 9.26%
1992-01-01 8.81 8.81%
1993-01-01 7.69 7.69%
1994-01-01 9.10 9.10%
1995-01-01 7.49 7.49%
1996-01-01 7.89 7.89%
1997-01-01 7.32 7.32%
1998-01-01 7.23 7.23%
1999-01-01 8.19 8.19%

Page 48
 Moody's Rates

2000-01-01 8.02 8.02%

2001-01-01 8.05 8.05%
2002-01-01 7.45 7.45%
2003-01-01 6.60 6.60%
2004-01-01 6.15 6.15%
2005-01-01 6.32 6.32%
2006-01-01 6.22 6.22%
2007-01-01 6.65 6.65%
2008-01-01 8.43 8.43%
2009-01-01 6.37 6.37%
2010-01-01 6.10 6.10%
2011-01-01 5.25 5.25%
2012-01-01 4.63 4.63%
2013-01-01 5.38 5.38%
2014-01-01 4.74 4.74%
2015-01-01 5.46 5.46%
2016-01-01 4.83 4.83%
2017-01-01 4.22 4.22%
2018-01-01 5.13 5.13%
2019-01-01 3.88 3.88%

Page 49
 Moody's Rates

ercent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Page 50