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PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS(TTM) P/E (X)(TTM) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND
Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd 814.00 40529.47 33.04 24.63 8.67 525.00
Castrol India Ltd 155.15 153462.30 7.01 22.13 15.05 140.00
Savita Oil Technologies Ltd 994.00 14236.20 78.11 12.73 1.92 25.00
Panama Petrochem Ltd 137.15 8296.70 7.04 19.48 2.41 60.00
Document code: FOTL_211220184_2 Copyright © 2016 Firstobject Technologies Ltd. All rights reserved
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (PARENT BASIS)
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Limited has achieved a turnover of 29.19% at Rs. 4172.14 million for the 2nd quarter of the FY
2018-19 as against Rs. 3229.48 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. During the 2nd quarter, net profit
stood at Rs. 402.91 million from Rs. 404.20 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year. Reported
earnings per share of the company stood at Rs. 8.09 in Q2 FY19 as against Rs. 8.15 in the corresponding quarter of the
previous year. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax stood at Rs. 781.17 million as against Rs. 657.47 million in the
corresponding period of the previous year, up by 18.82%.
Break up of Expenditure
Cost of Materials
2249.91 1470.14 53%
consumed
Purchase of Stock-in-
185.64 96.01 93%
Trade
Employee Benefit
260.01 197.80 31%
Expenses
Depreciation and
55.90 22.06 153%
Amortization Expenses
Document code: FOTL_211220184_2 Copyright © 2016 Firstobject Technologies Ltd. All rights reserved
Highlights:
Net Revenue for H1 FY19 rose by 24.40% and stood at Rs 8075.74 mn as against Rs. 6491.81 mn in H1 FY18.
During H1 FY19, PAT of the company rose by 7.65% at Rs. 804.23 mn as compared to Rs. 747.09 mn in H1 FY18.
Operating Highlights:
The Company continued its growth momentum during Q2 recording a very robust volume growth of 22% in its core
business (overall Q2 volume growth around 30% including non- regular institutional sales during the quarter).
Gulf Pride 4T Plus, its leading MCO brand was re-launched and the new pack with refreshed look and feel hit retail
shelves across the country. The re-launch generated a lot of buzz and garnered positive feedback from trade partners
and customers alike.
A new Endurance series of Greases was launched under the brand name of Gulf Crown with completely new look and
the Customer Value Proposition (CVP) of longer life.
Gulf's initiatives into Rural also continues to give strong returns with growths in ranges upwards of 50%.
The newly commissioned Chennai plant has secured the IGBC (Indian Green Building Council) Gold rating -
certifying the deployment of green concepts like deployment of solar panels and use of 100% natural light to save
electricity; sewage treatment plant and rainwater harvesting for water conservation etc - designed to reduce
environmental impacts in a measurable way at this facility.
Other Updates:
In a recent development, Tata Motors and Gulf Oil signed an agreement to launch a range of cobranded lubricants for
its passenger vehicles segment in the bazaar segment.
COMPANY PROFILE
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Limited (GOLIL), part of Hinduja Group, is an established player in Indian lubricant market. It
markets a wide range of automotive and industrial lubricants, greases, 2-wheeler batteries, etc. Today, the Gulf brand is
present in more than 100 countries across five continents with values of 'Quality, Endurance & Passion' as its core
attributes. The Gulf Oil International Group's core business is manufacturing and marketing an extensive range consisting
over 400 performance lubricants and associated products for all market segments.
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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (PARENT BASIS) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)
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Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2017 to 2020E
Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31st Mar, 2018 to 31st Dec, 2018E
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Ratio Analysis
Charts
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OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
At the current market price of Rs. 814.00, the stock P/E ratio is at 24.01 x FY19E and 21.32 x FY20E respectively.
Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY19E and FY20E is seen at Rs. 33.91 and Rs. 38.18
respectively.
Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 17% over 2017 to 2020E,
respectively.
On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 13.01 x for FY19E and 11.43 x for FY20E.
Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 6.97 x and 5.82 x for FY19E and FY20E respectively.
Hence, we say that, we are Overweight in this particular scrip for Medium to Long term investment.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
India follows the US and China to be the third largest lubricant market globally. It is one of the fastest-growing lubricant
markets in the world. The Indian lubricant market can be broadly classified under the three heads of automotive, industrial
and process/white oils. Process oils constitute one-third of the total lube market. Automotive and industrial together form
two-thirds of the market in terms of volume, followed by industrial oils such as transmission and hydraulic fluids, general
industrial oils, gear oils, greases and so on. Automotive engine oils form the largest pie of the Indian lubricant market,
excluding process oils.
India’s lubricant market constitutes over 20 organised players, including the MNCs, public sector oil marketing
companies and other domestic companies. The market is dominated by the public sector oil marketing companies. In
recent years, though, private players have started growing rapidly owing to their expanding reach and highly innovative
products and services. This trend is likely to continue in the future as well. Encouraging prospects of the rural economy,
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focus on energy efficiency, higher brand consciousness and continuous advancement of engine technology are some
macro enablers that will contribute to the growth of India’s lubricant market in the future.
Automotive segment
Automotive lubricants dominate the lubricant market in India, with specialised applications for Commercial Vehicles
(CV), Passenger Vehicles (PV) and two-wheelers. Diesel Engine Oils (DEO) lead the automotive lubricant market as they
alone form about 45% of the total market, followed by Motorcycle Oils (MCO) and Passenger Car Motor Oils (PCMO).
The demand for automotive lubricants is a direct function of vehicle movement on the roads, as well as growth of vehicle
population and automobile sales, which have grown rapidly in recent years.
India’s production of vehicles crossed the 29-million mark during FY 2017-18. For the first time, the country’s PV and
utility vehicle production crossed the 4-million mark each. These numbers indicate the inherent durability in the domestic
demand for automobiles. The country’s automobile sales grew at a rapid pace during FY 2017-18 and India overtook
Germany as the fourth largest global automotive market, right behind China, the US and Japan.
This is commendable, especially when viewed in the context of the setback arising from the inventory realignment
undertaken post the implementation of the GST. The industry revived quickly from the transitory pain witnessed by
distributors post GST implementation and registered a healthy double-digit growth of 14% during the year. Normal
monsoon aided rural income during the year, thereby bolstering demand for two-wheelers, which grew at a healthy pace
of 14.8%. This trend rubbed-off favourably on the sale of MCO in the lubricant industry.
On one hand, tractor sales too benefited from a buoyant rural economy and grew 22% during FY 2017-18. While on the
other hand, continued government push to the infrastructure sector, healthy momentum in the road construction and
mining sectors as well as improving demand from the e-commerce and Fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sectors
facilitated the growth of CV during FY 2017-18. This momentum was reflected in DEO sales, which bounced back during
the year.
Growing in strong double digits, compact cars were at the forefront of the overall PV segment. Stable interest rates also
supported the overall demand for PV in the year gone by. Consequently, PCMO witnessed healthy traction in sales.
Industrial segment
The industrial lubricant segment comprises hydraulic fluids, metal working fluids, greases and industrial gear oil. These
products are used in the construction, manufacturing, textile, power generation, mining, food processing, light-heavy
engineering, marine operations and metal working sectors.
Demand for industrial lubricant depends on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and overall growth trends in the
economy. Besides, the demand for high-performance lubricants in the industrial segment is driven by the criticality of the
application in which they are used, such as compressors, textile machinery, windmills, captive power plants, among
others.
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Infrastructure segment
The infrastructure segment can be classified separately as it leads the demand for both industrial and automotive
lubricants through products finding application in both on-highway vehicles and off-highway construction equipment.
Government Initiatives:
The Government of India has implemented multiple reforms and policies to facilitate and expedite the growth of the
infrastructure sector in both rural and urban areas. This, in turn, will lead to improved demand for lubricants from the
infrastructure sector.
Some of the key policy measures aiding the prospects of this sector include:
Higher spending towards infrastructure through various road projects under the Ministry of Road [including
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI)] and the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana
In the Union Budget of 2018-19, Rs. 71,00,000 lakhs was allocated for the construction of national highways
across the nation
The Sagarmala Programme (involving investments worth around Rs. 8.5 trillion) to set up new mega ports, drive
modernisation of India’s existing ports and facilitate the development of 14 Coastal Employment Zones (CEZs)
and Coastal Employment Units Adoption of new models such as the Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) to propel
investments into the sector
Implementation of various power sector reforms Modification of the Mines and Mineral Development and
Regulation (MMDR) Act to bring higher transparency
In conclusion, improving prospects of the infrastructure sector will benefit the domestic lubricant market.
Companies having wider reach and significant positioning in the lubricant sector and focusing on innovation are
well placed to benefit from the improving health of the infrastructure sector.
Opportunities
Scope to improve the Company’s market share in the PV and tractor segments
Document code: FOTL_211220184_2 Copyright © 2016 Firstobject Technologies Ltd. All rights reserved
Outlook
Automotive segment
The Indian automotive industry is set to further improve its performance and 2018-19 is expected to bring positive
sentiments back into the market and rev up overall vehicle sales. A buoyant rural economy, presence of multiple enablers
for consumption demand and a favourable monetary policy environment would aid the prospects of the automotive sector
in the medium term. Accordingly, the overall lubricant demand is expected to improve in the current year.
Personal mobility
The growth in two-wheeler population is expected to continue in 2018-19, with scooters slated to deliver a better
performance. the company will continue to strengthen its already prominent position in the MCO segment. The industry
also forecasts a high sales growth in PV, with both utility vehicles and cars growing in the domestic market.
This, along with the increasing adoption of high-value synthetic and semi-synthetic grades of oil and expanding footprint
in the rural segment, will be the main growth catalysts of the personal mobility segment. PCMO is ahigh-potential
category and the company will continue its focus to garner additional market share in PCMO by tapping into these
opportunities efficiently.
The investments made by Company in various brand initiatives such as the Manchester United campaign will also start
yielding results this year. Company is looking to ramp up its independent workshop programme ‘Gulf Car Stops’ to
further boost its market share in this category.
The Company is confident of delivering higher volume growth than the market in the personal mobility segment and
further enhance its market share, going forward.
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Disclosure Section
The information and opinions in Firstcall Research was prepared by our analysts and it does not constitute an offer or
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confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available secondary sources and data
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Analyst Certification
The following analysts hereby state that their views about the companies and sectors are on best effort basis to the best of
their knowledge. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. The
analyst qualifications, sectors covered and their exposure if any are tabulated hereunder:
Exposure/Interest to
Sectorscompany/sector Under
Name of the Analyst Qualifications
CoveredCoverage in the Current
Report
Dr.C.V.S.L. Kameswari M.Sc, PGDCA, Pharma & No Interest/ Exposure
M.B.A, Diversified
Ph.D (Finance)
U. Janaki Rao M.B.A Capital No Interest/ Exposure
Goods
B. Anil Kumar M.B.A Auto, IT & No Interest/ Exposure
FMCG
V. Harini Priya M.B.A Diversified No Interest/ Exposure
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Analyst Stock Weights
Overweight (O): The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or
industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E): The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry
(or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
No-weight (NR): Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the
average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next
12-18 months.
Underweight (U): The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or
industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Unless otherwise specified, the weights included in Firstcall Research does not indicate any price targets. The statistical
summaries of Firstcall Research will only indicate the direction of the industry perception of the analyst and the
interpretations of analysts should be seen as statistical summaries of financial data of the companies with perceived
industry direction in terms of weights.
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