Running head: BERNOULLI PROCESS REAL LIFE EXAMPLE

Bernoulli Process Real Life Example

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BERNOULLI PROCESS REAL LIFE EXAMPLE 2

Bernoulli Process Real Life Example

In statistics and probability, a Bernoulli process is a finite or infinite sequence of random

binary variables; it is therefore a discrete-time stochastic process that uses only two values,

canonically 0 and 1. The variables of the Bernoulli Xi component are identical and independent

(Zhou et al., 2012). Bernoulli process is a sequence of identical Bernoulli tests. The

independence of the proof implies that the process has no memory. Since the probability p is

known, past results do not provide any information on future results. If the process is infinite,

then, at any time, future evidence is a Bernoulli process identical to the entire process, the

starting property. One event in my life that fits the Bernoulli process is job applications. Job

applications are often a long funnel, and each step on the way has a Yes or No component.

Consider the probabilities of a Yes in each of these steps to be like this: Initial contact to be 10%,

soft phone interview to be 80%, phone interview to be 50%, on-site interviews to be 60%, chat

with offer giver to be 80% and then finally one is offered a job.

That gives an overall conversion rate of 0.1*0.8*0.5*0.6*0.8 = 0.02 == 2% which sounds

really tough. Now if this is plugged into the formula for Bernoulli trials on Wolfram Alpha it can

be seen that is job applicants apply for 30 jobs, that gives a 45% chance of landing at least one

job where; number of trials=30, probability of success=0.2, probability of all successes= 1.074 X

10-15, probability of all failures =0.5455, probability of at least one success =0.4545, probability

of at least one failure =1, and expected number of successes=0.6. Generally, the probability of x

successes is given by 0.02x . 0.98 30-x (30x ) for 0≤x≤30. The assumption of the equation is that
independent trails have a probability of success of 0.02.
BERNOULLI PROCESS REAL LIFE EXAMPLE 3

References

Zhou, M., Hannah, L. A., Dunson, D. B., & Carin, L. (2012). Beta-negative binomial process

and Poisson factor analysis. Journal of Machine Learning Research.