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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-020-0964-6

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Ionosphere time series modeling using adaptive neuro‑fuzzy


inference system and principal component analysis
Mir Reza Ghaffari Razin1   · Behzad Voosoghi2

Received: 3 September 2019 / Accepted: 25 February 2020


© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
The total electron content (TEC) is one of the most important parameters for studying the behavior of the ionosphere. The
global ionosphere maps (GIMs) can be used to study the TEC time series variations. The time resolution of the GIM-TEC
is 2 h, whereas the frequency of the ionospheric temporal behavior can be less than 2 h. To solve this problem, we present
a new method for ionosphere time series modeling and prediction in Iran. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS) and principal component analysis are combined to model the TEC of the ionosphere. In fact, the observations are
decomposed into principal components before entering to the ANFIS network and only a few main components are used
for training the network. The main advantage of this combination is to increase the accuracy of the results and reduce the
time of convergence to achieve an optimal solution. To evaluate the proposed method, we used observations of a Tehran
GNSS station in 2016 and 2017. The root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and dVTEC = |VTECGPS − VTECmodel|
were used to assess the accuracy of the proposed method. Also, all results are compared with the International Reference
Ionosphere 2016 (IRI2016), GIM-TEC, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) ionosphere models. The results indicate a 1 to
4.72 TECU improvement in the temporal resolution of TEC modeling with the proposed method, compared to the IRI2016,
GIM, and ANNs in the Iranian region.

Keywords  GPS · GIM · ANFIS · ANN · PCA · TEC · Iran

Introduction ionosphere has temporal and spatial variations. Also, it has


daily, monthly, and yearly frequencies. Due to the differ-
The ionosphere is a layer of earth’s atmosphere extending ent time frequencies, ionosphere time series analysis is
from an altitude of 50 to more than 1000 km. This layer of extremely important.
the atmosphere is still a favorite of scientists and research- So far, different methods have been proposed for mode-
ers in the field of space science due to the significant effects ling the TEC using observations from satellite signals. These
on the signals. Typically, the total electron content (TEC) is methods can be categorized as 2D, 3D, and 3D models with
used to study the behavior and properties of the ionosphere. the time parameter (Schaer 1999; Liu 2004; Yizengaw et al.
In fact, the TEC is the total number of free electrons in the 2006; Wen et al. 2012; Yao et al. 2015; Ghaffari Razin 2015;
path between the satellite and the receiver in the ground. Zheng et al. 2015). In another type of classification, these
The TEC can be calculated from code and phase measure- models can be categorized into two categories of empiri-
ments of the global positioning system (GPS) signals. The cal and mathematical models. Two-dimensional models can
include grid-based, nongrid-based, and broadcast models
* Mir Reza Ghaffari Razin (Walker 1989; Komjathy and Langley 1996; Liu and Gao
mr.ghafari@arakut.ac.ir 2003). Also, 3D models can include tomography models
Behzad Voosoghi with functions-based, voxel-based, and combined (func-
vosoghi@kntu.ac.ir tion and voxel) models (Yin et al. 2004; Saito et al. 2007;
Strangeways et al. 2009; Yao et al. 2013). In recent years,
1
Department of Geoscience Engineering, Arak University a different category of ionospheric modeling has been pre-
of Technology, Arāk, Iran
sented using intelligent computing algorithms such as artifi-
2
Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi cial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy logic with different
University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

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training algorithms (Ma et al. 2005; Habarulema et al. 2009; optimize its algorithm, so in some cases, ANFIS might be
Hirooka et al. 2011; Ghaffari Razin et al. 2015; Ghaffari better than ANN.
Razin and Voosoghi 2017). The main objective is to model the time series of the total
The ionosphere working group of the international electron content of the ionosphere in Iran using ANFIS.
GNSS service (IGS) has been a reliable source of global Because in some cases, like in ionospheric time series mod-
ionospheric maps (GIMs) since 1998 (Hernández-Pajares eling, the number of input observations to the algorithm is
et al. 2009). This group consists of several ionosphere analy- very high, the use of a principal component analysis (PCA)
sis centers, such as the Center of Orbit Determination in method is proposed. Using the PCA, we can use the prin-
Europe (CODE), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and cipal frequencies in the ionosphere time series as inputs to
the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) (Mannucci the ANFIS network. Therefore, it is possible to model the
et al. 1998; Hernández-Pajares et al. 1999). The GIM model ionospheric behavior with high precision and high tempo-
covers ± 87.5° latitude and ±180° longitude ranges. It also ral resolution using several principal components. Also, the
has 2.5° and 5° spatial resolution in latitude and longitude, convergence speed to the optimal solution increases in the
respectively. The accuracy of GIM-TEC was evaluated to ANFIS network. In order to evaluate the proposed method,
be about 2–7 TECU (Sekido et al. 2003). The IGS track- observations of Tehran GNSS station in 2016 and 2017 are
ing network has over 500 active GNSS stations worldwide. used. Also, all results are compared with the International
But the distribution of these stations is not homogeneous. Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI2016), global ionosphere
Large gaps of this network in the Middle East, e.g., the Iran map (GIM) TEC and ANN model. The main focus is to
plateau, reduce the accuracy of the IGS GIMs in these areas. compare the results of the proposed method with those of
The time resolution of the IGS’s ionosphere maps is 2 h. It the GIM model.
should be noted that temporal variations in the ionosphere
can be less than 2 h. Therefore, it is not possible to investi-
gate the time series of high-resolution ionosphere variations
VTEC modeling using spherical harmonic
using the products of this network. To overcome this limita-
(SH) expansion
tion, we propose modeling using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system (ANFIS).
Global ionosphere maps TEC (GIMs-TEC) are provided
Recently, it has become clear that the techniques derived
by the IGS at a 2-h time interval (ftp://cddis​.nasa.gov/gnss/
from artificial intelligence research and modern computer
produ​cts/ionex​/). Spherical harmonic (SH) functions were
science provide a number of system aids to analyze and
used for modeling VTEC with reference to a solar geomag-
predict the behavior of complex solar-terrestrial dynamic
netic reference frame according to the following equation
systems. Methods of artificial intelligence have provided
(Schaer 1999):
tools that potentially make the task of ionospheric mod-
eling possible (Cander 1998). Soft computing includes ∑ ∑
nmax n
( )
components such as genetic algorithms (GA), ANNs, fuzzy VTEC(𝜑, 𝜆) = P̃ mn (sin 𝜑) anm cos (m𝜆) + bnm sin (m𝜆)
n=0 m=0
inference system (FIS), reinforcement learning (RL), and (1)
ant colony methods, often referred to as computational intel-
where φ is the geomagnetic latitude of the ionospheric pierce
ligence. Typically, soft computing has a special interest in
point (IPP), λin is the sun-fixed longitude of the IPP, n and
the combination of different methods, whereas each of the
m are the degree and order of the model, respectively, P̃ mn is
methods is usually used separately in computational intel-
the normalized associated Legendre function of degree n and
ligence. In other words, in soft computing when combining
order m, and anm and bnm are the unknown SH coefficients
neural networks with fuzzy algorithms or combining neural
and GIM parameters, respectively. The temporal resolution
networks with genetic algorithms, it is possible to achieve
of the TEC calculated with the GIM model is 2 h. However,
results that, when used separately, are impossible to achieve
research has shown that ionospheric temporal variations
or may have lower accuracy and computational speed (Zadeh
have frequencies of less than 2 h. These variations increase
1996). Therefore, the advantage of combining ANNs and
over the solar activity periods. Therefore, understanding the
fuzzy logic is used to model the ionosphere TEC.
temporal behavior of the ionosphere requires a higher tem-
The theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic was first intro-
poral resolution model.
duced in Zadeh (1996). One of the best computations in
soft computing is combining ANNs with fuzzy logic. This
combination is called the ANFIS network. The ANFIS Fuzzy inference system (FIS)
has some advantages, including the ability to capture the
nonlinear structure of a process, adaptation capability, and Fuzzy inference systems take inputs and process them based
rapid learning capacity. ANFIS applies neural networks to on prespecified rules to produce the outputs. Both the inputs

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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51 Page 3 of 13  51

and outputs are real-valued, whereas the internal processing Adaptive neuro‑fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
is based on fuzzy rules and fuzzy arithmetic (Zadeh 1996).
FIS is the key unit of a fuzzy logic system having decision ANFIS is an integration system in which neural networks
making as its primary task. It uses the “IF…THEN” rules are applied to optimize the fuzzy inference system. ANFIS
along with connectors “OR” or “AND” for drawing essential constructs a series of fuzzy if–then rules with appropriate
decision rules. A FIS is defined according to the following membership functions to produce the stipulated input–out-
five main sections: put pairs. The initial fuzzy rules and membership func-
tions are first set by using human expertise about the out-
• Rule base: It contains fuzzy if–then rules. puts to be modeled. Then, ANFIS can modify these fuzzy
• Database: It defines the membership functions of fuzzy if–then rules and membership functions to minimize the
sets used in fuzzy rules. error measure or explain the input–output relationship of
• Decision-making unit: It performs an operation on rules. a complex system. Figure 1 depicts the structure of an
• Fuzzification interface unit: It converts the crisp quanti- ANFIS network in five layers.
ties into fuzzy quantities. In Fig. 1, the first layer performs fuzzification, the sec-
• Defuzzification interface unit: It converts the fuzzy quan- ond layer performs the fuzzy T-norm operation for the
tities into crisp quantities. premise part of fuzzy rules, the third layer is used for nor-
malization, the fourth layer creates the fuzzy rules of the
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) consequent part, and finally, the fifth layer calculates the
final output of the system. The forward relations for the
An artificial neural network is based on a collection of con- network structure shown in Fig. 1 are as follows:
nected units or nodes called artificial neurons, which loosely ( ) ( )
model the neurons in a biological brain. Each connection, wjk = 𝜇M1 x1 .𝜇M2 x2
j k
j, k = 1, 2, … , m (3)
like the synapses in a biological brain, can transmit a signal
from one artificial neuron to another. An artificial neuron wjk
that receives a signal can process it and then send it to the wjk = j, k = 1, 2, … , m
∑ ∑
mm
(4)
next layer (Schalkoff 1997). A neuron or a nerve cell is actu- wi1i2
ally a function with n input and an output which the neuron i1=1 i2=1

input–output relation will be as follows (Leandro and Santos


2007): fjk = q0,jk + q1,jk .x1 + q2,jk .x2 (5)
( n )
∑( ) In the above equations, m represents the number
y=h wj xj + w0 (2) of membership functions for each input variable and
j=1 (q 0 ,  q 1 ,  q 2 ) are real numbers corresponding to linear
weights in the consequent part of the ANFIS system. The
where h is the activity function, wj represents the weight
final output of the ANFIS network can be calculated as
of each neuron, xj represents the input vector, and w0 is the
follows:
initial weights of the network.

Fig. 1  ANFIS network structure


with two inputs

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∑m ∑m � � � �
� � 7. If the Pg parameter is improved based on the fitting func-
k=1 fjk 𝜇Mj
x1 𝜇M2 x21 m m
j=1
y = ∑m ∑m � �
j
� � = fjk wjk (6) tion, the final one is selected. Otherwise, the search con-
j=1
𝜇 1 x1 𝜇M2 x2
k=1 M j
j=1 k=1
j tinues.

Considering the physics of the ionospheric modeling Input observations


problem, the Gaussian bell-shaped function with an interval
of [0, 1] has better results than other functions and can be The two-frequency GPS receivers provide code observations
defined as (Zadeh 1996): and phase of the carrier wave (Pi, Φi (i = 1,2)) in the L band at
{ ( )2 } frequencies of L1 (1575.42 MHz) and L2 (1227.60 MHz). In
x − xi
𝜇Mi (x) = exp − (7) order to obtain STEC observations, a GPS geometry-free func-
𝜎i tion is used. The STEC can be calculated using carrier phase
( ) observations as well pseudoranges on L1 and L2 frequencies. In
In the above equation, x̄ i , 𝜎i are parameters of member- order to benefit from the high precision of STEC observations
ship functions that affect its shape. derived from carrier phase measurements and the advantage
of lack of ambiguity in STEC observations derived from pseu-
Training of soft computing using hybrid PSO doranges, observations from the two sets can be combined
algorithm together to smooth the STEC value. In order to benefit from
the ambiguity-independent estimates of STEC derived from
The main goal of the training stage in soft computing algo- the pseudoranges as well as the high precision of carrier phase
rithms is to calculate the optimal weights and biases. These measurements, code pseudoranges are smoothed using carrier
optimal values give the cost function to the lowest value. to code leveling (Ciraolo et al. 2007). Using code and carrier
In fact, the value of error in the output of the algorithm is phase observations in both frequencies, we can compute iono-
reduced by training. Therefore, training in soft computing spheric observable as follows:
can be considered as an optimization problem, which aims to
optimize weight and biases to achieve the minimum training � � f12 f22
STEC = P̃ 4 − br − bs − ⟨𝜀P ⟩arc + 𝜀L � 2 � (8)
error. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is 40.3 f2 − f12
fast in the early stages of the search, but the speed of conver-
gence dramatically decreases when approaching the optimal In (8), STEC is the observation in TECU (1TECU = 1×1016
solution. In contrast, the gradient descent algorithm in the el./m2), P̃ 4 is the pseudorange ionospheric observable
early stages of the search has a low speed and is rapidly smoothed with the carrier phase ionospheric observable,
converging around an optimal solution. In order to overcome br = c(𝜏p1 r r
− 𝜏p2 ) and bs = c(𝜏p1
s s
− 𝜏p2 ) are the code differen-
the defects of the two training algorithms, the PSO method tial interfrequency biases (DCBs) for the receiver and satellite,
has been integrated with the back-propagation (BP) and the respectively, and f1 and f2 are GPS signal frequency. The satel-
PSO-BP method has been developed (Zhang et al. 2007). In lite DCBs are the CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in
the new method, the PSO method is used for global search Europe) products, and the receiver DCBs are computed in the
in the first step, and in the next step, approaching the optimal preprocessing step. We prefer to calculate receiver DCBs with
solution, the BP method is used for local search. The steps Bernese GPS software version 5.0 and obtain satellite DCBs
of the PSO-BP algorithm are as follows: from CODE through the Internet. The TEC in the zenith direc-
tion (VTEC) can be calculated as follows:
1. Randomization of the position and velocity of particles
VTEC = M × STEC (9)
in the range of zero and one.
2. Evaluate the fitting function of each particle, taking into
account the parameter Pb as the recent position of the
M = sin (E) (10)
particles and Pg the best position of the particles. where E is the satellite elevation angle and M is the mapping
3. The best particle of current particles is stored. Also, the function.
speed and position of the particles are optimized.
4. The particle fitting function is re-evaluated. If the fit- Time series modeling of the ionosphere using
ting function improves, parameters Pb and Pg will be PCA‑ANFIS
updated.
5. If the parameter Pg did not change in two consecutive The most important challenge in soft computing, like the
steps or its modifications were small, the PSO would end ionospheric time series modeling using ANFIS, is in the
there. presence of a large input space. This factor leads to large
6. The BP method searches around the last Pg.

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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51 Page 5 of 13  51

matrix calculations and subsequently reduces the conver- 𝜆


gence speed of the algorithm to reach the optimal solu- 𝛾 i = ∑P i × 100 (15)
𝜆j
tion. Also, in some cases, the appropriate time resolution j=1

cannot be considered to investigate the behavior of a phe- Using PCA, we can detect dominant frequencies in iono-
nomenon because it requires a lot of input observations. spheric behavior. The main purpose of using this method in
In order to overcome this problem, the idea of using the modeling the time series of the ionosphere is to identify the
principal component analysis to reduce the dimensions of first few components that are most effective in ionospheric
input space is presented. Reducing the dimensions of input behavior. Based on the PCA, the principal components that
space before using the soft computing system increases have the most information about the input observations are
the speed of convergence of algorithms and reduces the used to train the ANFIS network.
computational time.
The multivariable analysis of geophysical data is essen- Observations
tial for determining the inherent characteristics of the data
(Jackson 2003). The PCA method provides a multivariate In order to analyze the new theory, data from the GNSS
analysis based on the transformation of the space of cor- station of Tehran (35.69° E, 51.33° N), for 2016 and 2017
related variables into the space of uncorrelated variables have been used. All RINEX observation files have been
(Mallika et al. 2019). In order to model the time series of downloaded from the IGS Web site. The algorithm of the
the ionospheric variations, the VTEC values derived from previous part is used to calculate the TEC values and subse-
GPS stations are included in the VTEC(t, d)m×n matrix. In quent VTEC values at 24 h. The diagram of the new theory
this matrix, the parameter t indicates the observing time is shown in Fig. 2.
expressed in hours for day d, and d is the day of the year. The results were analyzed by computing root-mean-
As a result, it can be written as: square error and dVTEC:

⎡ VTEC1,1 … VTEC1,n ⎤ √
√1 ∑ N
( )2
VTEC(t, d) = ⎢ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥ (11) RMSE = √ (17)
⎢ ⎥ VTECGPS − VTECM
⎣ VTECm,1 … VTECm,n ⎦ N i=1

In (11), m goes from 1, 2,..,24 and n is the increment for


day of year. For a period of 2 years, the matrix has 12 rows
dVTEC = VTECGPS − VTECM (18)
and 730 columns. The first step in using the PCA method where VTECGPS shows VTEC, which is computed by GPS
is to calculate the covariance matrix of the main variables. measurements. VTECM is the modeled value of VTEC from
For VTEC time series, we can write: ANFIS, and N is the number of sample elements.
CVTEC = Cov(VTEC(t, d)) (12)
Numerical analysis
The covariance matrix C in (12) is decomposing into
eigenvalues and eigenvectors based on the following Using the observations from the Tehran GNSS station, the
equation: VTEC matrix is formed. This matrix has 12 rows and 730
columns. Its 12 rows are due to consideration of the VTEC
CVTEC Ui = 𝜆i Ui (13) values in 2-h intervals (1, 3, 5,…, 23) UT and 730 columns
For unit summation, the eigenvalues are normalized and for 730 days over the years 2016 and 2017. In fact, of the
arranged in descending order. As a result, the value of the 24 VTEC observations per day, 12 VTEC values are used
VTEC input observations is decomposition to the Ui base
functions and vi coefficients. The base functions refer to
the diurnal variations of the ionospheric TEC. The follow-
ing equation can be used to calculate the coefficients vi:
vi = VTEC(t, d) ⋅ Ui (14)
The coefficients vi in (14) are called principal compo-
nents that describe long-term variations, such as solar,
annual, and seasonal variations. The contribution of each
main component to the total variation of the phenomenon
is calculated from the following equation:
Fig. 2  Diagram of the PCA-ANFIS model

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Table 1  Eigenvalue of VTEC matrix and its corresponding principal Table 2  Comparison of RMSE for training and testing stage and time
components of convergence (s) for PCA-ANFIS methods
PCA number Eigenvalue PCA (%) Method Training RMSE Testing RMSE Time of
(TECU) (TECU) conver-
1 1.082E + 06 97.968 gence
2 1.877E + 04 1.708 (s)
3 1.991E + 03 0.181
PCA1-ANFIS 1.856 2.454 148.32
PCA1,2-ANFIS 1.794 2.346 201.19
PCA1,2,3-ANFIS 1.756 2.297 246.95

Table 3  Comparison of RMSE for training and testing stages and


time of convergence (s) for PCA-ANN methods
Method Training RMSE Testing RMSE Time of
(TECU) (TECU) conver-
gence
(s)

PCA1-ANN 2.193 4.395 142.55


PCA1,2-ANN 2.067 4.296 190.27
PCA1,2,3-ANN 1.891 4.188 221.73

Fig. 3  First three PCA of VTEC matrix


convergence time is 201.19 s. Again, with the addition of the
third principal component, the RMSE of training and testing
to train the ANFIS and 12 other values are used for testing. has decreased. The analysis of the results of this table shows
Based on the theory of PCA, the VTEC matrix is decom- that by increasing the number of principal components, the
posed into the principal components and the three compo- RMSE of the training and testing decreases to some extent.
nents that include the largest role in the VTEC variation But the time of convergence to the optimal solution increases
are selected. Table 1 shows the results of the analysis of with increasing number of principal components. Consider-
the VTEC matrix using the PCA theory for 2016 and 2017. ing that for the first principal component, the time of con-
The results in Table 1 show that the first three principal vergence to the optimal solution is less than that for two
components of the VTEC matrix include 99% of the total and three components but that the RMSE of the training
variations expressed by the sum of the eigenvalue. There- and testing stages is not much different, the first principal
fore, the first three PCA are used for investigating the VTEC component is used to train the ANFIS network. Similar to
variations. Figure 3 illustrates these PCA. the ANFIS network, the RMSE for training and testing steps
In order to train the proposed model, in the first stage, and time of convergence to the optimal solution have been
only the first principal component that has the largest contri- evaluated for the neural network. The results of this evalu-
bution in the VTEC variation is considered as the output of ation are shown in Table 3. Here, the principal components
the ANFIS and ANN network. In the later stages, the second are added, respectively, and the neural network is trained.
and third principal components are also used. To evaluate Comparing the results of Tables 2 and 3, we see the supe-
the proposed theory, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) riority of the PCA-ANFIS method in terms of training and
for the training and testing steps, and the time of conver- testing RMSE. But, with regard to the time of convergence
gence to the optimal solution have been compared. Also, to the optimal solution, the PCA-ANN method has worked
for a better and more accurate evaluation, this comparison slightly faster. The reason for this is that the structure of
is made for the ANNs model. The results of this assessment the ANFIS network is more complicated than the neural
are shown in Tables 2 and 3. network. The ANFIS network is a combination of the neu-
Based on the results of Table 2, the RMSE values for ral network and fuzzy network. Training in this network is
the combination of a first principal component and an based on the number of rules. The If—then fuzzy laws are
ANFIS network at the training and testing stages are 1.856 known as a rule in fuzzy networks. In the ANFIS network,
and 2.454 TECU, respectively. Also, the convergence time by increasing the number of rules to achieve high precision,
to the optimal solution is 148.32 s. By adding the second the convergence time to the optimal solution increases.
principal component, the RMSE values for the training and For a better and more accurate evaluation, residual histo-
testing stages are 1.794 and 2.346 TECU, respectively. The gram and correlation coefficient for both ANFIS and neural

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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51 Page 7 of 13  51

network have been assessed in the training stage. If the value time interval 1, 3,…, 23 UT and the prediction of the TEC
of correlation coefficient is closer to one, it indicates higher was performed for the time interval 2, 4,…, 24 UT. Since
correlation and accuracy of the model. Residual histogram GIM’s products are offered in 2-h time frames (2, 4,…, 24),
plot gives the accuracy level of the predicted data. It is a a comparison has been made for these times.
graph drawn between the value of residuals on horizontal According to the results of Fig. 5, the RMSE values for
axis and its frequency on vertical axis. The accumulation of the PCA-ANFIS, PCA-ANN, GIM, and IRI2016 models in
bins around zero with high frequency indicates a high level the testing stage are 2.454, 4.395, 4.775 and 6.895 TECU,
of accuracy of the estimated parameters. Figure 4 shows this respectively, with respect to the correlation coefficients
analysis. In both cases, the results of GPS-TEC are consid- as 0.881, 0.783, 0.762, and 0.734. The results of both the
ered as reference. Based on the explanations presented in RMSE and correlation coefficient indicate the superiority of
the previous sections, the training of both networks is based the PCA-ANFIS method. The IRI2016 model is less accu-
on the largest principal component in the 2-h period (1, 3, rate than the other three models in predicting the TEC value.
5,…, 23) UT. The GIM is a traditional model for calculating the TEC vari-
Based on Fig. 4, the RMSE values for the ANFIS and ations on a global scale. The temporal resolution of the TEC
ANN networks are 1.8562 and 2.1935 TECU, respectively. modeling with this model is 2 h. The comparison in Fig. 5
Also, the correlation coefficient between the ANFIS-TEC shows that this model is not very accurate in time series
and the GPS-TEC is 0.898, while for the ANN-TEC with modeling of TEC on a local scale. Another comparison was
the GPS-TEC, it is equal to 0.858. Examination of these made using the dVTEC (|VTECGPS − VTECmodel|) between
two indices (RMSE and correlation coefficient) for the train- the four models. Again, in this comparison, the TEC values
ing stage indicates a more accurate training in case of the obtained from the GPS are considered as reference. Figure 6
ANFIS method than the ANN method. Also, in the residual shows the results of this comparison.
histogram, the error curve of the ANFIS method is narrower From Fig. 6, it can be seen clearly that the results of the
than the ANN method. This means that the parameters esti- ANFIS method are much closer to the results of the GPS-
mated by the ANFIS model have smaller errors. A similar TEC observations. In other words, the numerical value of the
analysis has been made for the testing stage. The results of dVTEC in the ANFIS method is much less than those of the
this analysis are shown in Fig. 5. In this figure, the results other methods. The maximum dVTEC value is 4.31 TECU
of the analysis of the IRI2016 model and GIM-TEC are also for the IRI2016 model, which is calculated in December
shown. In all cases, the results of GPS-TEC are considered a 2016. In January 2017, the dVTEC value for the IRI2016
reference. At this stage, the modeling was carried out for the model is 4.14 TECU, which is the highest value compared to

Fig. 4  Residual histogram (left


panel) and correlation coef-
ficient (right panel) for ANFIS
and ANN compared with
GPS-TEC as a reference in the
training stage

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51   Page 8 of 13 GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51

Fig. 5  Residual histogram (left


panel) and correlation coef-
ficient (right panel) for ANFIS,
ANN, GIM and IRI2016
compared with GPS-TEC as a
reference in the testing stage

other months. In both years, the minimum value of dVTEC The dVTEC of the GIM is approximately twice that of the
is obtained for the ANFIS model. The dVTEC of the GIM ANFIS model. According to the results of Table 4, even the
is higher than the ANFIS and ANN models and lower than ANN is more accurate than the GIM model. Since there are
the IRI2016 model. In April 2016, the maximum dVTEC only two IGS stations in Iran, the calculation of the VTEC
in the GIM model is 3.58 TECU, while it is 3.05 TECU over Iran is performed using interpolation methods. The low
for September of 2017. Table 4 shows the average error of accuracy of the GIM in time series modeling of the VTEC
all models in 2016 and 2017. The average is calculated for can be due to the low number of IGS stations and the use of
12 months each year. interpolation methods. To compare the modeled VTEC more

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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51 Page 9 of 13  51

Fig. 6  Comparison of the
dVTEC for the ANFIS, ANN,
GIM and IRI2016 models for
2016 (top) and 2017 (bottom)
with consideration of GPS-TEC
as reference

Table 4  Comparison of average dVTEC for ANFIS, ANN, GIM and GPS-TEC data than the GIM model. On July 2, 2016, and
IRI2016 models in 2016 and 2017 March 11, 2017, the disagreement between GPS and the
dVTEC (TECU) GIM model can be as large as 6 TECU. To demonstrate the
performance of each ionospheric model, the monthly mean
ANFIS ANN GIM IRI2016
TEC calculated over a 1-month period (February and Octo-
2016 1.33 1.67 2.29 2.39 ber 2016, April and November 2017) using the GPS, ANFIS
2017 1.08 1.34 2.11 1.75 and GIM ionospheric models over 2 years (2016 and 2017)
is shown in Fig. 8.
It can be seen that the ANFIS model has a better agree-
clearly with the ANFIS, we plotted the profiles of daily vari- ment with the GPS data than GIM models. In February
ations for 4 arbitrary days. Figure 7 represents these profiles. 2016, ANFIS underestimates TEC during all hours by a few
Also, the VTEC profiles of the GPS and GIM are shown in TECU with respect to the GPS-TEC. For this month, the
these figures. GIM model overestimates the TEC with 0–3 TECU with
Figure 7 shows that the TEC derived from the ANFIS respect to the GPS-TEC. On October 2016, ANFIS overes-
model has a shape very similar to that of GPS-TEC. timates the TEC during 6–16 UT but underestimates TEC
The maximum TEC value occurs around 10:00 UT during 2–6 UT and 16–24 UT, by a few TECU with respect
(LT = UT + 3.30 h), and the minimum one is around 02:00 to the GPS-TEC. In April and November 2017, the disagree-
UT. The ANFIS model has a better agreement with the ment between GPS-TEC and GIM models can be as large as

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51   Page 10 of 13 GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51

Fig. 7  Daily profile of VTEC


in 4 arbitrary days for GPS,
ANFIS and GIM

Fig. 8  Diurnal variation of
monthly mean TEC derived
from the two ionospheric
models in February and October
2016 and April and November
2017

3 TECU. These overestimations might be attributed to the September, and October, and in the interval 10–16 UT. In
large TEC data gaps in the Iranian region. There is a low both years and for the GIM model, the maximum difference
error value of 0–2 TECU for the ANFIS model compared is 4 to 6 TECU.
to the GPS-TEC in April and November 2017. In Fig. 9, the The absolute accuracies of ANFIS and GIM ionospheric
difference between the GPS-TEC and the TEC of the ANFIS models need further evaluation through precise point posi-
and GIM models is shown for all months of 2016 and 2017. tioning (PPP). In the above analyses, the TEC obtained from
This comparison is made for 2-h intervals (2,4,…,24). the GPS is used as a reference and the other two models
In 2016, the largest differences between the GPS-TEC are compared. To evaluate more precisely the ANFIS and
and TEC of the ANFIS model (dVTEC = VTECGPS − VTE- GIM ionospheric models, we used a single-frequency PPP
CANFIS) occurred in April and October, during 6–14 UT. approach. The main purpose of using single-frequency data
The maximum difference is 1–3 TECU. In 2017, most of is to correct the ionospheric delay using the ANFIS and GIM
the disagreement between GPS and ANFIS occurred in models. Since the dominant error in the single-frequency
April and at 6–14 UT. For the GIM model and in 2016, the PPP is the ionospheric delay, the accuracy of each model
maximum dVTEC occurred between April and May at 10-15 can be evaluated. To calculate the true coordinates of the
UT. In 2017, the largest differences occurred in the April, Tehran GNSS station, the observations of this station were

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GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51 Page 11 of 13  51

processed with Bernese GPS software in October 2016 and


April 2017. The single-frequency PPP errors corresponding
to the ANFIS and GIM ionospheric models are illustrated
in Fig. 10.
The maximum root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the
ANFIS model for the eastern component is 15.64  mm,
while it is calculated as 18.76  mm for the GIM model.
For the northern component, the maximum RMSE for the
ANFIS model is 16.34 mm, but for the GIM model it is
21.39 mm. In the altitude component, the maximum RMSE
in the ANFIS model is 21.33 mm and in the GIM model it is
24.79 mm. The RMSE analysis indicates a higher accuracy
of the ANFIS model than the GIM model.

Conclusion

To improve the results of TEC time series modeling using


ANFIS, we proposed to combine this network with principal
component analysis. In the new method, the observations are
decomposed into principal components before entering the
ANFIS network and some of the principal components that
have the most impact on the time series variations are intro-
duced to the ANFIS as input. The advantage of this com-
bination is that the convergence speed of the algorithm to
the optimal solution is reduced and also the accuracy of the
results is improved. The observations of the Tehran GNSS
station for 2016 and 2017 were used to test the method.
These observations relate to the period of midsolar activity.
Based on the principal component analysis, the first three
principal components have 99% of the total variation in the
TEC time series. The results of the proposed method were
compared with the results of the GIM model, artificial neural
network model, as well as the IRI2016 model. Convergence
time to the optimal solution and the RMSE values in training
and testing stages were evaluated.
The RMSE value in the PCA-ANFIS method was lower
than the RMSE in the PCA-ANN method in both the training
and testing stages. As to convergence speed, due to the more
complex structure of the ANFIS network, the neural network
has a lower convergence time; the convergence speed of the
neural network to the optimal solution is higher. By examin-
ing the dVTEC and the correlation coefficient, the combina-
tion of PCA method with ANFIS has a lower error value as
well as a higher correlation coefficient than the GIM, neural
network, and IRI2016 models. Evaluation of both models
in single-frequency PPP showed high accuracy of the PCA-
Fig. 9  Difference between the GPS-TEC and the TEC of the ANFIS
(up) and GIM (bottom) models in all months of 2016 and 2017 ANFIS model compared to the GIM model.
The results show that PCA-ANFIS is a high-accuracy,
high-precision and rapid method for modeling the TEC time
series. As a suggestion for future research, the performance
of PCA-ANFIS model for single-frequency GPS data iono-
spheric correction in the Iran region for a longer period of

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51   Page 12 of 13 GPS Solutions (2020) 24:51

Fig. 10  RMSE of monthly
single-frequency PPP differ-
ences between GPS and other
two models

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Publisher’s Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to


jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Mir Reza Ghaffari Razin  received


his Ph.D. degree in geomatics
engineering from K. N. Toosi
University of Technology, Teh-
ran, Iran (2014–2017). Now, he
is an assistant professor in the
Department of Geoscience Engi-
neering at Arak University of
Technology. His main area of
interest is space geodesy, atmos-
pheric modeling, artificial intel-
ligence, and GPS phase ambigu-
ity resolution.

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