No safe place

Kerala is one of the few States to publish activity trails of people who were identified as infected with the novel coronavirus. This was useful for contact-tracing purposes. An excerpt from one such actual activity trail of five patients from Pathanamthitta
is presented below (images are representational and not of one person alone). Before their symptoms peaked, those infected visited a variety of places including hotels, post offices, banks, shopping centres and bus stops. Around the time the trail ended,
only 11 people were under home isolation in Pathanamthitta. The number grew to 4,565 as of Monday, and many of whom could have been in contact with these patients. The more the infected persons travelled, the higher the risk of the spread
ILLUSTRATIONS AND GRAPHICS: KANNAN SUNDAR AND J.A. PREMKUMAR | WITH INPUTS FROM SUMANT SEN

1 2 3 4 5 6

Date: February 29 | Time: 10.30 to 11.30 a.m. Date: March 1 | Time: 9.30 to 11.00 p.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 9.50 to 10.10 a.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 10.15 to 10.20 a.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 10.25 a.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 11.00 to 11.30 a.m.
Place: A hotel on Muvattupuzha road Place: A restaurant in Ranni Place: A shopping centre in Ranni Place: A petrol pump in Ranni Place: Ittiyapara bus stand in Ranni Place: Post office at Pazhavangadi in Ranni

7 8 9 10 11 12

Date: March 2 | Time: 11.30 a.m. to 12.00 noon Date: March 2 | Time: 1.15 to 2.00 p.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 6.00 p.m. Date: March 2 | Time: 7.00 p.m. Date: March 3 | Time: 11.00 a.m. Date: March 3 | Time: 12.35 to 12.45 p.m.
Place: A church at Pazhavangadi in Ranni Place: A supermarket in Ranni Place: A bakery in Punalur Place: Relative's home at Punalur Place: A bank in Ranni Place: A bakery at Ittiyapara in Ranni

No option but physical distancing

South Korea had just over 30 COVID-19 cases in the 28 days after it reported the first. But when contact-tracing was done for patient-31, a Pandora's box
was opened. In the next 17 days, the number of cases crossed 6,000. Similarly, cases in Singapore would have been much lower if not for a dinner party.
Infected persons in Kerala travelled to many places where people congregate before getting diagnosed. Essentially, all it took for the novel coronavirus
to spread was one infected person who didn't maintain physical distance. By Vignesh Radhakrishnan and Srravya C

The Singapore clusters How S. Korea's Case 31 ignored The South Korea clusters
As of March 23, Singapore has identified seven clusters responsible for 50% of its cases. symptoms, attended church Patient 31 came into contact with 1,160 people, by far the largest cluster in South
The graph plots cases in each cluster. Each dot corresponds to a case. Close to 47 cases Korea. The graph traces the contact history of the first 31 cases. Isolated contacts are
originated from a dinner party on February 15 at a restaurant in Safra Jurong club � The in red. For instance, Case 1 came into contact with 45 people, but none were isolated
61-year-old
woman was
400 Investigations a regular 1 45 | 0
are ongoing at the
Shincheonji 2 75 | 0 Just 6 days
for cases
church. She 3 16 | 0 after patient
which are not
350 attended the 4 95 | 0 31 got
yet classified.
Daegu city 5 31 | 0 hospitalised,
New cases Visited a public bath in Gunsan city.
branch of cases
get added 6 17 | 1 Despite persisting fever & cough, eats
the church at multiplied
300 to a cluster 7 9|0 at a hotel, shops at a super market
7.30 a.m. on quickly in
almost every
Patient's number

February 9 8 Daegu city.

day 113 | 0 Cases related
Patients 9 2|0 Case no. 12 roamed the to the church
250 diagnosed as Three new
10 43 | 0 streets of Seoul for 10 days were then
Cases 142 and cases were
11 0|0 before getting admitted investigated
144 attended added to the
the dinner and gym cluster 12
200 and two
also visited the As of March
Kallang gym more to the � On
Bukit Timah 24, S. Korea
and the Bukit February 422 | 0 has mapped
150 Timah church cluster on 10, she 13 0|0 One of the cases imported from Wuhan 80% of cases
respectively March 20 developed 14 3|0 to some
high 15 15 | 4 clusters. The
fever and Shincheonji
100 So by the consulted 16
cluster is
time the a doctor in responsible
contact Suseong-gu for 56% of the
tracing ends, district. She 450 | 64
50 cases
the share was "asked" 17
The first patient to belong of cases
to a cluster was registered to undergo
from these 290 | 0
as Case 8 the COVID-19
clusters will tests 18 8|0 Daughter of patient 16 Victims
0
exceed 50% 19 68 | 1 from the
Dinner Grace A tech- A gym at A church Mosque Life Not Shincheonji
party Assembly nology 12 Kallang in Bukit in Ang Church classified 20 2|0
cluster are not
at Safra of God company Avenue Timah Mo Kio and into clus- 21 6|1 Patient 31 came confined to
Jurong church Missions ters yet
22 1|1 into contact with Daegu. Out of
23 23 | 7 thousands at a the 17 regions
� Despite 24 0|0 church in Daegu in S. Korea, 15
While some from the dinner party were declared as confirmed cases early (Cases 94 and 96), there were city and a hospital have at least
many who were declared much later (Cases 218 and 224). Some attendees of the dinner party (Cases 142 "warnings", 25 12 | 11
she in Cheongdo one case from
and 117) were confirmed as cases about 20 and 22 days after February 15 - the day it was organised 26 0|0 county. Many the cluster
proceeded
to a hotel on 27 40 | 0 turned positive
Feb. 15 to 28 1|1 later
Leaking out of the Singapore clusters have a buffet 29 117 | 117
Case 142, a 26-year-old male, visited two clusters, the dinner party and the gym. The virus lunch with 30 27 | 27
spread from him to three others, Cases 211, 236 and 142, not connected to any clusters. a friend in
31
So while only 50% of cases are directly connected to the clusters, there are many who Dong-gu city.
indirectly contracted the virus from those who were part of such clusters Her condition
worsened
thereafter
The diagram
287
267 186 251
211
321 359 338 367 plots cases
which are 1,160 | 1,160
104
Cheonan
linked to
one another. gym
236 142
Some of
165
212 them are
family
� Despite A cluster of clusters 119
200 symptoms The Shincheonji cluster is responsible for 5,028 cases in South Daenam
248 289 members hospital
303 worsening, Korea as of March 20. There are many similar clusters.
she again The second biggest cluster was made up of
219 attended the health workers and patients in the Cheongdo
109 same church Daenam Hospital (119 cases)
430
348 on February
134 126 16 and came
350 in contact ⊲ According to a New York
227 with more Times report, South Korean
166 240 Not all officials have learnt that
than 1,000
351 contacts are churchgoers Patient 31 visited Cheongdo
242 mapped to a too, in early February.
229
cluster yet. Investigations to link the

5,028
318
364 Cases 311, clusters are ongoing
388 335 and 243
361
75
225 are linked
86 204
but not in a
237 cluster yet Hansarang
260 hospital
294 � On
82 221 368
February
17, she was
110
132 Guro call
256 declared as center NUMBER OF CASES
patient 31. LINKED TO THE
291
178 South Korea SHINCHEONJI CHURCH
went on to CLUSTER
143 208 205 discover

718
more than
235 thousands of
167 335 cases from
her contacts
353 177 204 221 184 190 172 234
311 contacts of cases

Source: South Korea data is sourced from Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention and Reuters. Singapore data is
sourced from Ministry of Health, Singapore. Kerala data is sourced from State Health Minister's facebook account