Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam’s ASEAN
Chairmanship and the
Coronavirus – Annus Horribilis
Carlyle A. Thayer
March 22, 2020
Regarding the postponement of forthcoming Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong
Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS), Lancang Mekong Cooperation (LMC),
Cambodia, Laos Myanmar, Vietnam (CLMV), Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (CLM), ASEAN
Summit 36 and other related meetings, we request your assessment on how these
postponements would affect Viet Nam's ambitions and general agenda, especially on
hot issues like the South China Sea and Mekong.
ANSWER: The year 2020 will go down in history as Vietnam’s “annus horribilis” as
ASEAN Chair. Annus horribilis is a Latin phrase widely used in English for "horrible
year.” Vietnam has long prepared for the ASEAN chairmanship. Prime Minister Nguyen
Xuan Phuc announced five priorities to be pursued in 2020:
1. Strengthening of ASEAN unity and solidarity
2. Intensifying ASEAN’s economic integration and connectivity
3. Promoting ASEAN identity and awareness
4. Enhancing ASEAN’s global partnership for peace, stability and sustainable
development, and
5. Increasing ASEAN’s institutional capacity and effectiveness
The spread of the coronavirus from China to Europe, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and
North America poses a major risk to global public health. This has led many countries,
including Vietnam, to take preventive action such as shutting their borders and
restricting international travel. These actions have not prevented the virus from
spreading from the general public to high-level government officials and their aides
and assistants. The spread of the coronavirus has resulted in the quarantine of those
infected and self-isolation of individuals who have come into contact with an infected
person. Medical authorities warn that the worst is yet to come.
Major international events have been cancelled or postponed, including the Group of
20 summit scheduled for the United States. In these circumstances the cancellation of
a number of multilateral meetings under the auspices of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a prudent and a necessary public health precaution.
Vietnam, as ASEAN Chair, is unlikely to achieve its five main objectives as priority shifts
from promoting ASEAN community-building and connectivity on three fronts
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(political-security, economic, socio-cultural) to national and regional responses to

mitigating the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. These circumstances present
Vietnam with the opportunity to exert proactive leadership by re-ordering current
priorities to deal first and foremost with the threat of COVID-19, while at the same
time delaying or suspending other ASEAN cooperative activities.
The likelihood that Vietnam will have to postpone or re-schedule important
multilateral meetings, such as the 36th ASEAN Summit in April, means there will be a
disruption to the normal decision-making process, a slowing of the pace of policy
implementation and a delay in approving new initiatives.
All of ASEAN’s affiliated institutions will have to grapple with the threat of COVID-19
and slow if not suspend some or all of their activities. As ASEAN Chair, Vietnam will
have to shift gears, consult with other ASEAN members, and re-set priorities. All
decisions will have to be reviewed in light of new risks to public health by the
coronavirus pandemnic.
Because of the public health threat of COVID-19 responsible ASEAN officials will have
to review each program and activity related to cooperation under the auspices of the
ACMECS, LMC, CLMV, and CLM. There is an opportunity for Vietnam as ASEAN Chair
to coordinate consultations to ensure there is a regional/sub-regional response in
addition to actions by individual countries. If face-to-face meeting are not possible for
public health reasons, Vietnam can take the lead in organising video tele-conferences.
Postponing ASEAN 36 will lead to disruptions in reviewing progress on programs
already underway and delay new initiatives. Vietnam, as ASEAN Chair, should
investigate the possibility of holding a virtual ASEAN 36 summit by linking government
leaders through video conferencing. It should be noted that when Laos was ASEAN
Chair, two ASEAN summits were held back to back. This is another option.
ASEAN’s Calendar for 2020 has set an indicative time table for meetings of the ASEAN-
China Working Group on the Implementation of the Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea (JWG-DOC) and the ASEAN-China Senior Officials’ Meeting on the
Implementation of the DOC (SOM-DOC). The JWG-DOC is tentatively scheduled for
May/June, August and October), while the SOM-DOC is scheduled for May/June and
October. These meeting could be held by video tele-conference. Vietnam could
propose extending the original three-year time period to reach a Code of Conduct for
another year.
Finally, extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary responses. ASEAN members
could consent to extending Vietnam’s role as ASEAN Chair to 2021. This would enable
Vietnam to take the lead in fashioning policies to deal with COVID-19 on a regional
basis and then pursue Vietnam’s original five objectives when the circumstances
permit.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam’s ASEAN Chairmanship and the

Coronavirus – Annus Horribilis,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 22,
2020. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.