Steel Market Developments - Q2 2019

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
DSTI/SC(2019)1/FINAL
Unclassified English - Or. English

18 July 2019
DIRECTORATE FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
STEEL COMMITTEE
Steel Market Developments: Q2 2019
This document is only available in PDF format.
Contact: Daichi MABASHI, Daichi.MABASHI@oecd.org, +33 1 45 24 1483;

Fabien MERCIER, Fabien.MERCIER@oecd.org, +33 1 45 24 9384.
JT03449878
OFDE
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2 │ STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – Q2 2019
This paper was authored by Fabien Mercier, Daichi Mabashi and Filipe Silva from the OECD
Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). It was approved and declassified by written
procedure by the OECD Steel Committee on 26 March 2019 and prepared for publication by the OECD
Secretariat.
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sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name
of any territory, city or area.
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STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – Q2 2019 │3
Table of contents
Recent market developments in the global steel industry .................................................................. 5

1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 6
2. The economic outlook........................................................................................................................ 7
2.1. OECD economic outlook .............................................................................................................. 7
2.2. Focus on specific risks to the outlook ........................................................................................... 9
2.2.1. Deleveraging and adjustment in the Chinese economy .......................................................... 9
2.2.2. Slowdown in global economy and trade .............................................................................. 14
2.3. Steel consumption ....................................................................................................................... 17
2.3.1. Americas............................................................................................................................... 18
2.3.2. Asia ...................................................................................................................................... 18
2.3.3. CIS........................................................................................................................................ 19
2.3.4. European Union.................................................................................................................... 19
2.4. Steel production .......................................................................................................................... 20
2.5. World steel trade ......................................................................................................................... 21
2.6. Steel and steelmaking raw material prices .................................................................................. 23
2.6.1. Steel prices ........................................................................................................................... 23
2.6.2. Steel futures prices ............................................................................................................... 26
2.6.3. Steelmaking raw material prices .......................................................................................... 27
2.7. The global capacity situation ...................................................................................................... 30
2.8. Global steel market outlook ........................................................................................................ 31
2.9. Regional steel market outlook .................................................................................................... 31
2.9.1. Europe and CIS economies .................................................................................................. 31
2.9.2. Americas............................................................................................................................... 32
2.9.3. Middle East .......................................................................................................................... 33
2.9.4. Asia and Oceania.................................................................................................................. 33
References ............................................................................................................................................ 38
Endnotes ............................................................................................................................................... 48
Tables
Table 1. OECD Economic Projections, November 2018 ........................................................................ 9

Table 2. World crude steel production developments in 2018 .............................................................. 21
Table 3. Steel trade developments across major steel-producing economies ........................................ 23
Figures
Figure 1. Total credit to non-financial corporations (core debt) ........................................................... 10

Figure 2. World industrial production ................................................................................................... 15
Figure 3. World trade and trade prices .................................................................................................. 16
Figure 4. Steel Purchasing Managers’ indices (PMIs) .......................................................................... 17
Figure 5. Consumption of hot-rolled steel products, major economies ................................................. 18
Figure 6. Aggregate flat and rebar steel prices (latest January 2019) ................................................... 24
Figure 7. Steel price for flat products, by region ................................................................................... 25

Figure 8. Steel price for rebar products, by region ................................................................................ 26
Figure 9. Steel future prices................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 10. Prices for key steel-making raw materials ........................................................................... 28
Figure 11. Chinese scrap prices continues on upward trend ................................................................. 29
Figure 12. Margin between steel and raw materials prices ................................................................... 29
Figure 13. Evolution of crude steelmaking capacity in OECD/EU economies and non OECD/EU
economies ...................................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 14. Global crude steelmaking capacity and crude steel production ........................................... 31
Figure 15. Car passenger vehicle sales in China ................................................................................... 34
Figure 16. Real estate price change and investments ............................................................................ 35
Boxes
Box 1. Debt for equity swaps ................................................................................................................ 11

Recent market developments in the global steel industry
This document is part of a regular monitoring exercise to provide the Steel Committee with
timely information on steel market developments. It provides a brief update on recent
developments in steel markets, based on information available until December 2018.
1. Summary
Steel market fundamentals have weakened markedly over the second half of 2018.
Although steel production growth is still positive in most regions, steel prices have already
started to adjust, reversing their previous upward trend and eliminating most of their earlier
gains. Important headwinds include the weakening global outlook, the increase in trade
frictions, the pickup in new capacity investments, and the persistence of excess capacity
This document provides an overview of recent steel market developments, the latest
developments in global steelmaking capacity, and a brief overview and outlook for regional
markets, based on information available until December 2018. It also includes an overview
of the deleveraging and adjustment process in the Chinese economy and the slowdown of
the global economy and in global trade. To summarise, the following key developments
are discussed in this report.
 The economic situation: The November 2018 OECD forecasts pointed to a world
GDP growth rate of 3.5% in 2019, with downside risks to growth including a
potential increase in trade frictions, the phasing out of non-conventional monetary
policies, and the financial risks stemming from high asset valuations and high
private and public indebtedness.
 Steel demand: Market data suggest that steel consumption growth stalled in most
economies in 2018, and that the 2017 recovery may be losing momentum.
Downside risks to the outlook include increased trade frictions and a weakening
global economy, which suggests that without further action large structural
imbalances are likely to persist.
 Steel exports: Global steel exports continued to decline in the first 10 months of
2018 (y-o-y), including exports from India (-29.3%), the United States (-13.4%),
the People’s Republic of China (-9.3%), the European Union (-6.4%) and Japan (-
3.1%).
 Steel and raw material prices: After increasing during the first months of 2018,
steel prices reversed their earlier gains, falling back to their pre-2018 levels. Coking
coal and ferrous scrap prices have both fallen back to their pre-2018 levels, while
iron ore prices have remained roughly the same over the year.
 Capacity: The latest available information (as of 31 December 2018) suggests that
global steelmaking capacity, in nominal crude terms, remained nearly unchanged
in 2018, following declines in 2016 and 2017. Global capacity remains well above
production and demand.
 Steel demand outlook: Forecasts by the World Steel Association (worldsteel),
released in October 2018, suggest that global steel demand will continue to grow
in 2019, albeit at a slower pace (1.4%) than in 2018. A new worldsteel forecast will
be released in April 2019.
2. The economic outlook
2.1. OECD economic outlook
According to the November 2018 Economic Outlook, the OECD forecasts that world GDP
will grow by 3.7% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019. Table 1 below indicates the latest available
OECD GDP growth forecasts. In many countries, unemployment is at record lows, and
labour shortages seems to be emerging, despite sluggish real wage growth. Monetary and
fiscal policy has begun to normalise, particularly in the United States (U.S.). Nevertheless,
a number of risks may materialise in the very near future. Trade growth and investment,
which are important contributors to global GDP growth, may continue to be hampered by
tariff hikes, according to the Economic Outlook. Higher US interest rates and an
appreciating US dollar have resulted in an outflow of capital from emerging economies,
which is weakening their currencies. Also, stock market prices and asset valuations in
general are still high by historical standards — if interest rates were to increase rapidly, this
could negatively impact stock market valuations and affect the real economy through
expectations and adverse wealth-effects.
In the euro area, real GDP growth should be about 1.8% in 2019, supported by private
consumption and business investment. GDP growth is projected to decrease slightly in
2020, to a rate of 1.6%, while domestic demand should continue to be supported by
accommodative monetary and fiscal policy. Favourable financing conditions should
support investment, and inflation should continue to rise as wage growth strengthens. The
fiscal stance is expected to continue to be accommodative.
In the U.S., the economy continues to benefit from the fiscal stimulus enacted in 2017 and
2018, and the impact of the accommodative fiscal stance is expected to continue being felt
until the end of 2019. The recent tax reforms and the supportive fiscal conditions should
continue to underpin private investment in 2019, but a weakened global outlook and trade
frictions will weigh on economic activity, according to the Economic Outlook.
Furthermore, risks to financial stability stem both from high asset valuations and from high
levels of non-financial corporate debt.
In Japan, economic growth is projected to be near 1% in 2018 and 2019, supported by
exports, business investment and private consumption. A number of factors might cushion
the negative impact on consumption of the increase of the consumption tax (from 8% to
10%), including the use of half of the generated revenues in new government spending
programmes, and the cut in taxes on cars and housing. There are two main risks to the
economic outlook for Japan: a loss of confidence in Japan's fiscal sustainability and the
escalation of trade actions. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-
Pacific Partnership (TPP-11), where Japan assumed a leadership role, should help mitigate
the latter.
In the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), economic growth is estimated to
have declined to 6.6% in 2018 and is projected to further decline to 6.3% in 2019. The
weakening of industrial production, corporate profits and revenues, are all signs of a
slowdown. Excess capacity still plagues a number of industrial sectors, and weighs on
business investment. Foreign trade flows, currently mitigated by the front-loading of
purchases from the U.S. to avoid tariffs, should continue to lose momentum in 2019. The
slowdown of activity also reflects reduced infrastructure investment and residential
housing. Monetary and fiscal policies have eased to curtail the slowdown of growth. The
decrease of average import tariffs and tax cuts aimed at boosting consumption could also
help alleviate the impact of the global slowdown and of the reduction in trade activity on
the Chinese economy. A better pricing of risks and the removal of implicit government
guarantees for State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) would contribute to increase capital
efficiency, and thus bolster sustainable growth.
In India, economic growth will slow somewhat but remain robust, at close to 7.5% in 2019
and 2020. Higher oil prices and the rupee depreciation are putting pressure on demand,
inflation, the current account and public finances. However, both business investment and
exports are expected to remain strong, due to past structural reforms – including the new
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the smoother implementation of the Goods and
Services Tax. Nevertheless, India has little room for manoeuvre in terms of fiscal and
monetary policies: its level of debt relative to GDP is elevated, and the rupee depreciation
underpins inflationary pressures. Those inflationary pressures have only been temporarily
contained by a good monsoon (which positively affected the supply of crops and lowered
food prices), lower excise taxes on oil products, and the government’s requirement that
public-sector oil marketing companies lower their margins.
In the Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”), growth is projected to remain at around
1.6% in 2018, easing slightly to 1.5% in 2019. Private consumption and investment should
benefit from rising wages, household credit and employment, although the increase in the
value-added tax will partially offset these effects. Uncertainty remains about possible future
sanctions and counter-sanctions, which could continue to take their toll on the Russian
economy.
In Brazil, growth should gain momentum during 2019 and 2020 supported by private
consumption. Improvements in the labour market and the increase in business investment
possibly supported by greater policy certainty could contribute to economic activity.
Downside risks are a deteriorating fiscal position, should the newly elected government fail
to reach consensus on pension reform.
Table 1. OECD Economic Projections, November 2018
Real GDP growth (y-o-y).
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World 1 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5

United States 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.1
Euro area 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6
Germany 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.4
France 1.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5
Italy 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9
Spain 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9
Japan 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.7
United Kingdom 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.1
Mexico 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.8
Korea 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.9
Canada 1.4 3.0 2.1 2.2 1.9
Turkey 3.2 7.4 3.3 -0.4 2.7
Australia 2.6 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.6
China 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.0
India 2 7.1 6.7 7.5 7.3 7.4
Russia -0.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.8
Brazil -3.4 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.4
Indonesia 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1
South Africa 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8
OECD 1 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9
Non-OECD 1 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7
World real trade growth 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5
Note: 1. Moving nominal GDP weights using purchasing power parities.

2. Fiscal years starting in April
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2018, http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/.
2.2. Focus on specific risks to the outlook
2.2.1. Deleveraging and adjustment in the Chinese economy

The non-financial corporate debt to GDP ratio in China has increased from about 100% in
2008 to about 160% in the first quarter of 2018, and is considerably higher than in other
jurisdictions (Figure 1). The debt ratio had started to decrease in 2016, but rebounded in
the first quarter of 2018, as can be shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Total credit to non-financial corporations (core debt)
As a percentage of GDP
Note: Total credit to non-financial corporations is defined as the sum of loans and debt securities.
Source: BIS, https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f4.1.
Monetary policy has loosened considerably in China since mid-2018. For example, on 1
June 2008 the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) expanded the scope of the collateral
accepted for its medium-term lending, to include all corporate bonds rated AA+ and AA
(Zhang and Lee, 2018[1]), whereas previously only higher-rated bonds (AAA) were
accepted.1 This certainly creates a greater availability of collateral that allows commercial
banks to refinance and provide more credit to the Chinese corporate sector.2 The PBOC
also uses the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), which determines the regulatory
provisions that commercial banks must make when granting a loan, as a policy tool to adjust
credit flows. The RRR, which stood at 17% in the beginning of 2018, has been
progressively reduced, and reached 14.5% in January 2019. The PBOC will further reduce
the RRR by an additional 0.5 percentage point on January 15 and a further 0.5 percentage
point on January 25.3
Shadow banking is defined here as the non-bank financial institutions that are outside the
scope of banking regulators, as they do not take bank deposits from customers. This
includes insurance companies, asset managers, broker-dealers, money market funds,
private equity funds and hedge funds. Shadow banking has increased considerably in
China, particularly due to the growth of wealth management products (WMPs), which are
Single Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) managed by banks (OECD, 2017[2]). WMPs allow banks
to essentially shift assets and deposits off balance sheets and thus decrease banks’ capital
requirements. WMPs offer little transparency on the quality of their assets for their
investors, who instead rely on the implicit guarantee that comes with management by state-
owned banks (OECD, 2017[2]). Implicit guarantees from state-owned enterprise (SOE)
STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – Q2 2019 │ 11
banks to their WMPs give rise to moral hazard and an ineffective pricing of risk that could
result in capital misallocation (OECD, 2017[2]).
An OECD study found that contagion risk4 in emerging markets between the banking sector
and the shadow banking sector, has increased and became significant after the 2008
financial crisis (OECD, 2017[2]). Chinese regulators have recognised the issue and made
efforts to curb excess shadow banking growth. In July 2018, the China Banking and
Insurance Regulatory Commission issued draft rules for the issuance of WMPs, in an
attempt to curb financial risks and to increase transparency (Liu, 2018[3]). In particular,
banks should limit leverage and strengthen liquidity management of their WMPs.
Moreover, WMPs act as a fund and can now invest directly in equity, rather than through
broker-dealers. The rules are due to take effect at the end of 2020 (Liu, 2018[3]).
Debt for equity swaps in China

The Chinese government has been making some efforts to deleverage the economy. 5 Debt
for equity swaps (Box 1) are seen by Chinese regulators and policy makers as an expedient
way to deleverage heavily indebted companies, particularly in the steel sector. China’s
regulators issued a number of guidelines to provide a framework for debt for equity swaps
(Wan, 2018[4]). This framework has been evolving over the years: Chinese debt for equity
swaps have moved away from government direct intervention to help banks and SOEs (e.g.
Sinosteel6) towards a more complicated scheme that diffuses risks inside and outside the
financial system (Pang and Herrero, 2016[5]).
According to Natixis, only RMB 165 billion out of the RMB 884 billion (15.7%) of
announced debt for equity swaps have been implemented as of February 2018 (Herrero and
Gary, 2018[6]). Nevertheless, the rhythm is likely to have accelerated and continue going
forward. Indeed, the People’s Bank of China announced in end of June 2018 that RMB 500
billion of the RMB 700 billion in liquidity obtained by cutting banks’ reserve requirement
ratio (RRR) would be used by the five state-owned banks and 12 national joint-stock
commercial lenders to support debt for equity swaps (Wan, 2018[4]).
Box 1. Debt for equity swaps
A debt for equity swap is a transaction in which the obligations of a company, usually loans
it was granted or bonds it issued, are exchanged by the obligors of the company against
equity. Debt for equity swaps can be voluntary or mandatary (or somewhere in-between),
and they may be explicitly or implicitly promoted by the government.
A mandatory exchange of debt against equity does not necessarily imply a government
intervention: mandatory exchanges can happen, for example, when bankruptcy laws clearly
define the conditions for debt for equity swaps to take place. Bankruptcy laws vary across
jurisdictions. For example, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Article 11 entails that the company does
not liquidate all its assets to repay bondholders (in contrast with Bankruptcy Article 7).
Instead, the company continues operating and focuses on reorganising and restructuring its
debt. Previous equity shares are cancelled, and replaced by new ones distributed to
bondholders and, potentially, to previous shareholders, ensuring that equity holders take
the first loss. The amount of new shares provided for each bond’s nominal amount will in
that case be determined by the appropriate bankruptcy court, taking into account the value
of the bond at the time of bankruptcy, and the assets of the company.
Debt for equity swaps can also be proposed by the company to its obligors. Companies
in need of being relieved from a heavy debt burden may engage in negotiations with their
main lenders, trying to incentivise them to agree to exchange their debt for equity. This
will result in a dilution of the company previous ownership, thus current equity holders
have an incentive to ensure good management and to avoid over-indebtedness. To entice
bondholders to agree to the swap, the estimated value of shares will typically be higher
than the money due, which means that investors agreeing to the swap will be provided with
more shares in value that what the amounts they had lent to the company. Obligors are free
to refuse such a scheme.
Debt for equity swaps can also be triggered by conditions described in the bond
indenture (the legal and binding contract between the bond issuer and the bondholders):
this is the case of convertible bonds. It could be that a “financing event” identified in the
indenture automatically decides when the bond is converted to equity. Other convertible
bonds can be converted on the decision of their holder only. Convertible bonds typically
have a lower yield than non-convertible bonds, since they essentially give bondholders a
“call option” on the company stock: each bond can be converted for a fixed amount of
company shares. Bondholders would convert their bond to equity whenever the value of
the equity they can obtain becomes higher than the (current) price of their bond.
Convertible bonds thus enable debt investors to become equity investors, which might be
particularly appealing in an upturn.
The State Council issued a guideline on 22 September 2016 that forbids Chinese banks to
hold equity stakes of corporates facing financial difficulties (Pang and Herrero, 2016[5]).
To carry out a debt for equity swap, the bank sets up a Single Purpose Vehicle (SPV)
structure, called a “fund”, to which the bank sells its distressed debt. The debt thus leaves
the balance sheet of the bank, as the SPV balance sheet does not consolidate at the bank
level. Future transactions between the fund and its final investors are also off-balance sheet
from the point of view of the bank. This entails significant capital relief for the bank since
it does not have to provision its distressed debt. Furthermore, there is evidence that the fund
buys the debt at par value, rather than at a discount (Pang and Herrero, 2016[5]), which
means that the bank is not taking any loss. Future losses and financial risks are passed to
end-investors further down the scheme.
End-investors in the new Chinese debt for equity swaps are those who buy shares of the
fund. In practice, they are:
1. The originating bank itself, through its participation in its own fund. This
participation is accounted for in the trading book of the bank through its Asset
Management Company (AMC), rather than in its lending book. Moreover, based
on a number of individual deals, Natixis estimated that banks retained a mere 4%
of the total amount of debt for equity swaps through their own AMCs (Herrero and
Gary, 2018[6]). Hence, the scheme entails important capital reserve savings for
banks, which do not need to provision risky loans and can off-load them to the fund
and clean their balance sheet.
2. Other AMCs than the one of the banks (34%). Those are mainly the three large
AMCs created by China in the 1990s to clean up bad loans in its banking sector,
namely, China Huarong, Cinda, and Orient and Great Wall.
3. Insurance companies (30%); and
4. State-owned funds (27%), in particular:
a. The China Structural Reform Fund; it is the formed by 10 SOEs. The fund’s
aim is to allocate 80% of their assets to structural restructuring of SOEs directly
with equity or through investment in funds, as well as involvement in SOEs as
a creditor.
b. The China State-owned Capital Venture Investment Fund, which has the largest
involvement in debt for equity swaps. The key purpose of the fund is to support
innovation-driven and industrial upgrading.
c. The Guohua Military and Civilian Integration of Industrial Development Fund,
whose aim is to support the strategic military industry and central SOEs, as part
of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
5. Other potential investors, including private investors, the National Security
fund, and the targeted SOE itself (Pang and Herrero, 2016[5]).
Although under Regulation 82 of the China Banking Regulation Commission (CBRC),
non-performing loans are not allowed to be sold directly or indirectly to households (Pang
and Herrero, 2016[5]), the regulation is circumvented by the scheme as it is the fund (the
SPV), and not the bank, which will transfer the risk to its end-investors (Pang and Herrero,
2016[5]). Hence, the risk and potential future losses are diluted through the financial system
and beyond it, with depositors and households bearing the ultimate risk. For example, the
Postal Saving Bank of China has few non-performing loans (twice less than the sector
average in Q3 2017) and a solid deposit base, but is the owner of 35% of the China
Structural Reform Fund and the China State-owned Capital Venture Investment Fund, and
hence an important end-investor in the debt for equity schemes (Herrero and Gary, 2018[6]).
The main beneficiaries of the scheme are i) the borrower (the indebted company, usually
an SOE), which avoids the difficulty of having to repay its debt while reducing its
indebtedness at a very low cost and ii) the lender (the bank, usually an SOE), which does
not have to set aside capital for provisioning its distressed loans nor does it have to take
any significant loss on the value of its loans. The scheme does not incentivise the borrower
towards a more prudent approach with respect to debt, nor does it incentivise the obligor
towards a more prudent management of credit. Hence, it fails to instil market discipline
that would enforce long-term structural change and capital efficiency. On the contrary, it is
the rest of the financial system, including the cash-rich banks, and ultimately, the
households, which will bear the debt market and default risks (Pang and Herrero, 2016[5]).
Within the company management, little change or re-organisation can be expected from
the new diluted and non-expert shareholders. The reduced debt-level of the company would
enable it to obtain new loans from its main lenders, thus falling short of the deleveraging
goal and perpetuating an over-reliance on debt.
Debt for equity swaps, by allowing the diffusion of steel firms’ financial risks and debt
burden to the rest of the Chinese economy, and ultimately, households, represent a
downside risk for the global economic outlook and thus also for the steel sector. Long-term
incentives for firms to reduce borrowing, curtail capacity expansion projects and adopt
more conservative management practices are absent, as debt for equity swaps allow
borrowers to avoid disruptive and forced restructuring. Similarly, banks that lend to steel
firms are not incentivised to provide credit more carefully, as they can avoid taking losses
for bad loans to steel firms by simply passing them to a debt for equity scheme.
2.2.2. Slowdown in global economy and trade

The OECD’s Economic Outlook, released in November 2018, explains that import tariffs
have led to increases in prices in some countries, and that global trade had started to ease
due to the adverse effects of trade restrictions on confidence and investment planning
(OECD, 2018[7]). According to the OECD, global trade growth will remain below 4% per
annum on average during the period 2018-20.
A recent WTO leading Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), released on 19 February,
exhibited the weakest value since March 2010, indicating a rate of trade growth below the
currently estimated trend. The WTO forecasts trade growth to slow to 3.7% in 2019 from
an expected 3.9% in 2018, downgrading its previous forecast due to trade frictions and
tighter credit market conditions (Miles, 2019[8]) (WTO, 2019[9]).
In January 2019 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that rising trade frictions,
as well as financial vulnerabilities due to the building up of private and public debt, are key
downside risks to the world economy (IMF, 2019[10]) and warned that the slowdown in
economic growth could be sharper than predicted. The lack of a deal concerning “Brexit”,
and a larger-than-anticipated slowdown in China were also pointed as risks that could
contribute to a steeper slowdown in the world economy. A Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC)
survey also found that only 5% of executive managers are expecting the situation to
improve, compared to a third a year earlier (Giles, 2019[11]).
World industrial production growth, which had been picking up from its 2015 lows and
reached 4.1% in January 2018, has been falling ever since. Growth stood at 1.8% in
November 2018, down from 3.7% one year earlier (Figure 2). The weakening growth of
industrial production has been more pronounced in advanced economies. Annual growth
in advanced economies fell from 4.2% in November 2017 to a meagre 0.6% in November
2018. In emerging economies, industrial production growth decelerated from 3.2% to 2.8%
during the same period. Hence, the industrial production gap between emerging economies
and advanced countries, which had narrowed during previous years, appears to be widening
again.
Figure 2. World industrial production
% change, year-on-year
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
After a rapid increase in 2016 and 2017, the growth in global trade and export prices nearly
came to a halt in November 2018. Annual growth in export volumes fell from 10% at the
end of 2017 to 1.7% in November 2018.
Figure 3. World trade and trade prices
% change, year-on-year
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
From January 2018 to November 2018, steel market sentiment, as measured by the new
orders Steel Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) compiled monthly by Markit, has been
very volatile for the U.S. and decreased steadily for both Asia and the E.U. (Figure 4, upper
panel). The sentiment index has worsened for all three regions, and, as of February 2019,
purchasing managers of all three regions expect a decrease in new orders (index below 50).
New export orders are also expected to decline, despite a notable improvement of the
sentiment in Asia compared to the previous months (Figure 4, lower panel).
Figure 4. Steel Purchasing Managers’ indices (PMIs)
Note: An index less than 50 indicates that more purchasing managers expect a decrease over the next month
than an increase.
Source: Markit economics, via Datastream
2.3. Steel consumption
Figure 5 below presents the y-o-y percentage change in the combined consumption of hot-
rolled products for 10 of the world’s largest steel-consuming economies in Asia, the CIS
region, Europe, North America and South America, which together account for
approximately 75% of global steel demand. The y-o-y growth figure for the first three
months of 2018 was a robust 7.5%, compared to the same period in 2017.
Figure 5. Consumption of hot-rolled steel products, major economies
Y-o-y % changes.
Note: Total (incl. China) represents the combined consumption of hot-rolled steel products of the following
economies: Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia and the U.S. Total (excl. China)
represents the combined consumption of all those economies except China. Consumption of hot-rolled products
is defined as the sum of production and net imports. According to the latest publication of ISSB, consumption
data on China is not available since April 2018 due to the lack of Chinese data on exports and imports of hot-
rolled steel products (ISSB, 2019[12]).
Source: OECD calculations based on data from ISSB (International Steel Statistics Bureau).
2.3.1. Americas
In the North American Free Trade Agreement (hereafter “NAFTA”) region, the U.S.
monthly steel consumption indicator increased by 3.7% during January to August 2018,
year-on-year. Housing and non-residential construction is contributing to the growth of
steel demand. Light vehicle production in the U.S. has also stabilized and is expected to
increase modestly (Metal Expert, 2018[13]). In Mexico, the monthly steel consumption
indicator remained flat (0.0%) during the first eight months of 2018, y-o-y. Mexican
manufacturing sectors continue showing steady demand, while construction activity
remains weak (Ternium, 2018[14]).
According to the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero), consumption of finished
steel products in Latin America remained flat in January-November 2018 (0.0%), when
compared to the same period in 2017 in January-November 2018. Steel consumption also
increased in Argentina (1%) and Ecuador (4%) during January-November 2018. In
contrast, Peru and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (hereafter “Venezuela”) saw their
domestic steel consumption decrease by 17% and 66%, respectively, in the first 11 months
of 2018 (Alacero, 2019[15]).
2.3.2. Asia
The monthly consumption indicator for China, which accounts for around 46% of global
steel demand, registered a y-o-y growth rate of 7.7% in the first three months of 2018.
According to China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (hereafter
“MPI”), the demand growth in 2018 benefited from the expansion of investments in
manufacturing and real estate, as well as an increase in exports of electrical machinery. The
one-off statistical effect from the closure of induction furnaces in 2017 is also reflected in
the demand growth in 2018 — note that demand for steel supplied by these induction
furnaces was not previously captured by the official statistics (MPI, 2018[16]) (People.cn,
2018[17]).
Steel demand in India, the third largest steel consuming economy, remained strong. India
became the second largest steel producer in 2018, registering 106.5 million metric tonnes
of production (World Steel Association, 2019[18]). The monthly consumption of hot-rolled
products in India increased by 30.7% during January-March 2018 compared to the
corresponding time period one year earlier. The implementation of government-driven
large-scale infrastructure projects, such as housing, power transmission and railways, is
contributing to the growth of domestic demand (Business Standard, 2018[19]).
According to the South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI), apparent steel
consumption in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region (ASEAN-6, i.e.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam), slightly increased
by 0.2% y-o-y during January-June 2018 (SEAISI, 2018[20]). Malaysia’s steel consumption
increased by 6.6% y-o-y supported by growth in the demand for flat steel products used
mainly in the manufacturing sector. Steel demand in Indonesia and the Philippines recorded
moderate growth, of 1.2% and 3.8% y-o-y, respectively. Steel demand in Thailand has
slightly recovered by 1.5% during the first half of 2018, after a significant decline in 2017
(-14%) due to destocking that followed a strong build-up of inventories in 2016 (SEAISI,
2018[21]). Steel demand in Viet Nam expanded by more than 20% per annum on average
from 2014 to 2016, but started to decline in 2017 (by 5.8%) and continued to decline in the
first half of 2018 (by 5.3%, y-o-y). This decline has been attributed to the slowdown in the
market for long steel products, which are used primarily in construction. Singapore’s steel
demand also declined by 4.9% y-o-y during the first half of 2018.
In Japan, the monthly consumption indicator registered a moderate y-o-y growth rate of
1.3% in the first eight months of 2018. Steel demand from the construction, industrial
machinery and automobile sectors has been firm, while demand from the shipbuilding
sector remains stagnant (JISF, 2018[22]). The steel consumption indicator for Korea
decreased by 5.3% in January-August 2018 compared to the corresponding time period one
year earlier, explained by a slowdown in the auto and shipbuilding industries (KOSA,
2018[23]).
2.3.3. CIS
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, the steel monthly consumption
indicator for Russia recorded y-o-y growth of 0.9% during the first eight months of 2018.
According to the Russian Steel Association (Russian Steel), steel demand in Russia is
expected to increase in 2018, mainly supported by new infrastructure projects and
investments in modernisation of downstream industries, i.e. digitalisation and investments
for environmental and energy efficiency purposes (Russian Steel, 2018[24]). In Ukraine,
apparent steel consumption during January-June 2018 in Ukraine has increased by 6.4%,
y-o-y, supported by stable demand in key steel consuming industries, such as construction,
machine-building and hardware production industries, according to Ukrainian steel
company Metinvest (Metinvest, 2018[25]).
2.3.4. European Union

A recent report by the European Steel Association (EUROFER) indicates that steel demand
in the E.U. benefited from moderate growth in steel-using sectors in Q3 2018 (Eurofer,
2019[26]). This was evidenced by the 2.3% increase in the Steel Weighted Industrial
Production Index (SWIP).7 Apparent steel consumption in the third quarter of 2018 grew
by 2.6% y-o-y and is estimated to have increased by 0.3% y-o-y in Q4 2018 (EUROFER,
2019[27]). The key drivers of steel demand in Europe included the construction industry
(+5% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2018) and, to a lesser degree,
mechanical engineering (+4%). Construction activity was stimulated both by residential
and non-residential demand. In western European countries, residential demand for
affordable housing increased due to the need for the authorities to accommodate the
migrant flows of recent years (Eurofer, 2019[26]). In particular, German construction
activities continued to be strong throughout 2018 (Kallanish, 2018[28]) and the momentum
does not seem to have abated in 2019 (Kallanish, 2019[29]). Private non-residential
investment was supported by low costs for finance, while public non-residential investment
was supported by improvements in the budgetary situation of some European countries. In
central European countries, the key drivers of construction activity were infrastructure
projects and healthy domestic conditions. EU investment in machinery and equipment
should grow at a more moderate rate going forward, due the slowdown in economic activity
and the redirection of business investment increasingly towards the service sector.
Eurofer estimates mechanical engineering growth to decrease to about 1.5% in 2019 and
2020 (Eurofer, 2019[26]). Weaker demand from the automotive, steel tube production and
the domestic electrical appliance industries explains the sluggish growth. Eurofer estimates
that automotive industry production increased by only a meagre 1.3% in 2018, due to a
sharp fall in the second half of 2018. Production declined in most European automotive
markets (Kallanish, 2018[30]), and the decline was particularly felt in German car production
(Kallanish, 2018[31]).
Factors affecting the outlook include high vehicle ownership in the Western European
market and the expectation that lease companies may delay purchases of cars until the
uncertainty surrounding governments stance towards diesel cars is resolved. The transition
to new emission testing procedures, i.e. the Worldwide Light Vehicle Test Procedure
(WLTP)8 may also worsen the drop in demand for automobiles (Flak, 2019[32]).
2.4. Steel production
World crude steel production increased by 4.7% in 2018 compared to the previous year,
but with marked differences across regions. The strongest regional growth by large was
observed in the Middle East (12.6%), followed by Africa (6.9%), China (6.9%) and
Oceania (5.9%). North America also experienced a relatively strong y-o-y growth (4.1%).
Steel production growth was sluggish in the Other Europe (0.5%) and CIS (0.1%) regions,
while the European Union registered a decline in steel production in 2018 (-0.2%).
Total crude steel production in the North America region was up by 4.1% overall during
2018, with the U.S. registering the strongest pace of production growth (6.2%), Mexico
growing at a slower pace (1.0%) and Canada showing a decline in steel production (-4.0%).
In the E.U., steel production declined slightly (-0.2%) in 2018 as a whole, reversing gains
earlier in the year. Steel output increased in the United Kingdom (U.K.) (+3.5%) and in
Italy (+1.7%). The largest decreases in steel production were experienced in Poland (-
2.3%), Germany (-2.0%), and Spain (-1%).
In the “Other Europe” region, steel output growth was anaemic, increasing by a mere 0.5%
in 2018, with Turkish steel output contracting by 0.6%. In the CIS region, steel output
stagnated in 2018 (+0.1%). Russian output was flat during the period (+0.3%) and
Ukrainian production decreased (-1%).
Asian crude steel production accelerated during the second half of 2018, resulting in an
overall 5.9% growth rate over the year. China's steel production supported the increase with
a 6.9% growth rate in 2018, followed by India (4.9%), which became the second largest
steel producer in the world, Chinese Taipei (+3.5%) and Korea (2.0%). Japanese steel
production stagnated in 2018 (-0.3%).
In South America, steel production decelerated during the second half of 2018, resulting in
a mere 1.5% growth in 2018. The largest increase remained in Argentina, with production
growth accelerating to 11.6%, while Brazil grew at a more subdued pace of 1.1% in 2018.
In the Middle East, steel production increased by a strong 12.6% in 2018, y-o-y, mainly led
by Iran (17.7%), which produced 25.0 million metric tons of steel in 2018 (Worldsteel,
2018[33]). Saudi Arabia’s steel production also saw a robust increase (8.4%). African steel
production increased by 6.9% in 2018, still driven by very strong production growth in
Egypt (13.6%), while steel production remained flat in South Africa (0.4%).
Table 2. World crude steel production developments in 2018
Level, thousand mmt % change, year-on-year
Dec 2018 2017 2018 Dec 2018 2017 2018
EU 14 527 168 549 168 192 10.1 8.6 -0.2

Other Europe 3 474 40 633 40 821 -3.1 6.3 0.5
CIS 8 034 100 932 101 062 -9.5 7.6 0.1
North America 10 108 115 761 120 511 5.9 7.6 4.1
South America 3 679 43 686 44 275 2.1 7.5 1.3
Africa 1 250 13 593 14 526 2.9 5.1 6.9
Middle East 3 096 32 020 36 066 9.5 1.8 12.6
Asia, of which: 105 033 1 186 889 1 257 216 7.4 6.7 5.9
China 77 621 867 544 927 523 10.3 6.6 6.9
Oceania 474 5 985 6 341 -10.9 3.2 5.9
World 149 676 1 708 048 1 789 009 6.0 6.9 4.7
Source: World Steel Association, as of June 2018. Data are based on monthly production data and can differ
slightly from annual data published after December of each year.
2.5. World steel trade
Table 3 presents recent data on trade developments in the 10 largest steel-producing

economies. Exports from China declined by 9.3%, in the first 10 months of 2018 compared
to the same period in the previous year. Exports from the E.U. (external trade) and Japan
have also declined, by 6.4% and 3.1% y-o-y, respectively, during January-October 2018.
Exports from India, which had recorded a significant increase in 2017 (60.7%), declined
by 29.3% y-o-y in January-October 2018. Steel exports from the U.S., Korea and Brazil
have also decreased, doing so by 13.4%, 3.1% and 9.7%, respectively, during the first 10
months of 2018. Exports from Russia and Turkey increased by 8.7% and 18.3%, y-o-y, in
the first 10 months of 2018, respectively. Iran has showed a significant increase in exports
(37.2%) during the same period.
Turning to steel imports, the E.U., the largest steel-importing economy, saw steel imports
increase by 9.6% in January-October 2018, compared to the corresponding period one year
earlier. The U.S., which had recorded a significant increase in steel imports in 2017
(14.7%), posted an import decline of 10.6%, y-o-y, during the first ten months of 2018. The
volume of imported steel products in Korea and Iran decreased significantly in the first 10
months of 2018, falling by 26.4% and 38.3%, respectively. Steel imports in Japan, Russia
and Turkey also declined by 4.2%, 2.9% and 17.7%, respectively,-during the same time
period. China and Brazil recorded increases in steel imports of 1.3% and 2.3%,
respectively.
Table 3. Steel trade developments across major steel-producing economies
2018 2017 % change, y-o-y

Thousands of metric tonnes 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 2018
China (People’s Republic of)* Exports 93 780 112 400 108 490 75 410 58 410 64 490 -9.3%
Imports 14 430 12 780 13 210 13 300 11 100 10 960 1.3%
EU-28 (external trade) Exports 36 451 32 998 29 193 30 508 23 635 25 254 -6.4%
Imports 31 931 37 385 41 150 41 702 38 761 35 354 9.6%
India Exports 9 828 7 117 9 933 15 964 9 241 13 072 -29.3%
Imports 9 310 13 249 9 857 8 818 7 503 7 451 0.7%
Japan Exports 41 247 40 720 40 452 37 408 30 058 31 025 -3.1%
Imports 6 657 5 850 5 965 6 186 4 956 5 175 -4.2%
United States Exports 11 581 9 620 8 920 10 081 7 378 8 519 -13.4%
Imports 40 285 35 564 29 918 34 327 26 525 29 661 -10.6%
Korea Exports 31 803 31 077 30 504 31 254 25 421 26 241 -3.1%
Imports 22 268 21 546 23 168 19 208 12 255 16 655 -26.4%
Russian Federation Exports 26 939 29 605 31 104 31 087 27 600 25 394 8.7%
Imports 5 644 4 309 4 389 6 407 5 216 5 370 -2.9%
Turkey Exports 15 965 14 687 15 117 16 083 15 503 13 107 18.3%
Imports 13 326 18 415 15 344 13 352 9 192 11 167 -17.7%
Brazil Exports 9 730 13 624 13 378 15 301 11 306 12 527 -9.7%
Imports 3 894 3 141 1 827 2 275 2 018 1 973 2.3%
Iran Exports 2 838 3 764 5 623 7 336 7 989 5 824 37.2%
Imports 4 140 4 396 4 652 3 065 1 589 2 575 -38.3%
Definition: HS 7206 to 7302, 7304-7306, and 7307.21-7307.99 excluding some forgings (7326.19), points and
switches/crossings (7302.30 and 7302.90), some forged cold finished sections (7216.69 and 7216.99), some
cold formed sections (7216.61 and 7216.91), welded shapes and sections (7301.20) and steel castings
(7325.99).
Note: The economies listed in this table are the major crude steel producing economies by production volume
in 2018 (World Steel Association, 2019[18]). This is the first time Iran is shown in this table because in 2018
Iran became the 10th largest steel producer in the world. Data for China are sourced from the General
Administration of Customs of China (GACC, 2018[34]). Therefore, the definition of steel products for data of
China are slightly different from the OECD's definition, which is used for other economies.
Source: OECD calculations based on data from ISSB (International Steel Statistics Bureau) and General
Administration of Customs of China (GACC)
2.6. Steel and steelmaking raw material prices
2.6.1. Steel prices

The uptick in steel demand from 2016 onwards supported a rebound in steel prices from
their 2015 lows, but this trend was short-lived and the price dynamics have since reversed,
with both world hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices steadily declining from their May
2018 heights (Figure 6). In the beginning of 2019, the flat and the rebar price indexes stood
at USD 590.6 per tonne and USD 554.6 per tonne respectively, close to the levels in the
beginning of 2014. Differences in prices are reflected in the price dispersion indicator
shown in Figure 6. Regional price dispersion, for both rebar and flat prices, has increased
sharply since mid-2017, reversing its earlier decline. Increases in regional price dispersion
have previously been associated with significant price declines— e.g. during 2015, price
dispersion was very high and the price index at its lowest level during the whole 2008-2018
period.
Figure 6. Aggregate flat and rebar steel prices (latest January 2019)
Notes: The flat price and rebar price indices are defined as the arithmetic average of the individual regional
Platts price series for the U.S., North Europe, China, Japan, India and Russia, when available. This simple
arithmetic average had the closest fit to the two global Platts price indices used in Market reports prior to the
two global price indices being discontinued by Platts from September 2017 onwards. The coefficients of
variation (CV) are defined as the ratio of the standard deviation of the regional Platts price series making up
the indices to their (arithmetic) mean, and thus captures price dispersion across regions.
Source: Platts Steel Business Briefing.
Flat Steel prices increased more rapidly in the U.S. than in other jurisdictions during the
first half of 2018, but reversed course during the second half of the year (Figure 7) and
moved closer to the levels in the beginning of the year. U.S. rebar steel prices remained flat
during the period because, according to Platt’s, market players were adopting a “wait and
see” attitude (Figure 8).
Chinese and South East Asian flat and rebar prices, which had moderately increased during
the second half of 2017 and stalled in the first half of 2018, have decreased in the second
half of 2018 and are now back at their mid-2017 levels (Figure 7, Figure 8). In absolute
terms, flat and rebar prices in those regions are significantly below comparable prices in
other regions.
Figure 7. Steel price for flat products, by region

Figure 8. Steel price for rebar products, by region
Note: The stabilisation of U.S. rebar price during the last months is explained by a market attitude of “wait and
see” since the new, higher price level has been reached, according to the explanation provided by Platt’s
analysts to the OECD Secretariat on June 2018.
2.6.2. Steel futures prices

As shown in the previous report on steel market developments (OECD, 2018[35]), steel
future prices tend to move quicker than steel prices, suggesting that they are better able to
predict steel price dynamics by incorporating new market information more rapidly.
For the purpose of analysis, this paper uses continuous steel price indices, constructed from
a number of steel future contracts by rolling them over. More precisely, each month the
price data are extracted from a different steel contract price series of the same maturity than
the contract used one month prior. Figure 9 below shows three steel future continuous
contracts, as provided by Thomson Reuters Datastream. There has been a steady decrease
from 2018 onwards, suggesting that the downward trend observed for spot steel prices is
expected by traders to continue in the short term.
Figure 9. Steel future prices
Indices of three continuously rolled steel futures contract prices, USD per tonne
Note: NYMEX US Midwest futures prices were converted to correspond to metric tonnes rather than tons.
SHFE Steel rebar futures prices were converted from RMB to USD using daily exchange rates at closing. For
more information on contract specifications, please refer to https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Ferrous/Steel-
Rebar#tabIndex=0 for LME steel rebar contracts; to
http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/SteelRebar/contract/9220216.html for SHFE steel rebar continuous
contracts, and to https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/hot-rolled-coil-steel-index-futures-options.pdf for
NYMEX US Midwest HRC contracts. For a throughout description of futures contracts and steel futures
markets, see (OECD, 2018[35]).
Source: Thomson Reuters, Datastream.
2.6.3. Steelmaking raw material prices

Prices of key steelmaking raw materials declined between early 2011 and the beginning of
2016, contributing significantly to lower steel production costs during that period.
Nevertheless, this trend reversed in 2016, when raw material prices slowly climbed back
towards their 2011 levels. Prices of steelmaking raw materials continued to increase in
2017, albeit at a slower pace. In 2018, iron ore prices stayed relatively flat, while scrap
prices and coking coal prices declined (Figure 10).
Iron ore prices stabilised at around USD 72 per tonne as of 31 December 2018, up from
USD 64 in June 2018 but well below their high of USD 83 per tonne in March 2017. Coking
coal prices have stabilised at USD 196 per tonne as of 31 December 2018, after a volatile
2016-2017 period. Scrap prices decreased steadily during the course of 2018, reversing
most of their 2017 gains, falling to USD 264 per tonne (FOB Rotterdam) as of 31 December
2018.
As of 31 December 2018, the difference between scrap and iron ore price stood at USD
192 per tonne. This differential is below the average during the 2008-2018 period (USD
220 per tonne), and has declined considerably since March 2018, when it stood at USD 278
per tonne. It will be interesting to continue following the evolution of iron ore and scrap
prices as one of the different factors determining the choice of steelmaking technologies in
steel production. There are particularly large differences in scrap prices across regions, both
in terms of price levels and price dynamics. For example, regarding the latter, the Chinese
steel scrap price has continued to increase (Figure 11), contrary to the price of European
scrap exports (Figure 10). In terms of levels, Chinese scrap prices are also higher : on 10
January 2019, the Chinese Home Steel Index for scrap stood at about USD 397 per tonne
(using the prevailing USD/RMB exchange rate), compared to a price of USD 284 per tonne
for European exports of scrap. According to Platt’s, high Chinese scrap prices could reflect
a move towards the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology in the context of environment-
related policy objectives (Lu and Zhang, 2018[36]). The announcement, in June 2018,
regarding the banning of all steel scrap imports to China by 2020 (Ault, 2018[37]), might
have also contributed to higher Chinese scrap prices and lower European prices.
Figure 10. Prices for key steel-making raw materials
Source: Platts Steel Business Briefing (SBB), Datastream.

Figure 11. Chinese scrap prices continues on upward trend

Steel Scrap Price, RMB per tonne.
Source: Home Steel.
The declining steel price trajectory, coupled with relatively stable iron ore and coking coal
prices, help explain the decreasing margin between steel and raw material prices, as shown
in Figure 12.
Figure 12. Margin between steel and raw materials prices
Note: The raw materials basket for steel production includes 70% of the usual quantities of iron ore (1.6 tonne)
and coking coal (0.77 tonne) needed to produce steel in the integrated process and 30% of the quantity of ferrous
scrap (1.07 tonne) needed to produce steel in the electric arc furnace process (see OECD, 2016). Prices used
are as follows: Iron ore Fines, 62% Fe, SPOT, CFR China; Hard coking coal spot, FOB Australia; Scrap, #1
HMS, FOB Rotterdam. The basket is compared against HRC world prices. The margin is defined as the per
cent difference between the steel flat price and the raw materials basket price.
Source: OECD calculations based on Platts Steel Business Briefing.
2.7. The global capacity situation
The latest available information (as of 31 December 2018) suggests that global steelmaking
capacity (in nominal crude terms) remained nearly unchanged in 2018, following declines
in 2016 and 2017 (Figure 13.A). The OECD has revised (slightly downwards) its 2017
figures for global steelmaking capacity to 2 240.1 million metric tonnes (mmt) to
incorporate new information on closures that was not previously available as well as
updated information on the status of certain investment projects. The net capacity change
in 2018, taking into account new capacity additions and closures, brings current global
steelmaking capacity to 2 233.7 mmt, representing a slight decline of slightly more than 6
mmt, i.e. 0.3%, from the level of 2017. The decline in global steelmaking capacity in 2018
follows a deceleration in capacity growth since 2013, and results from both capacity
reductions and slower capacity growth in some parts of the world (Figure 13.B).
Figure 13. Evolution of crude steelmaking capacity in OECD/EU economies and non
OECD/EU economies
A. Level (mmt) B. Annual % change.

mmt
Non OECD/EU economies Total OECD/EU economies Total World Total OECD/EU economies Total Non OECD/EU economies Total World Total
2 500
20%
2 000
15%
1 500
10%
1 000
5%
500
0%
0
-5%
Note: Capacity data reflect information available to December 2018. Please see the document DSTI/SC(2019)3
for further information about updates of new steelmaking capacity investments and closures, as well as capacity
projects that are underway and planned over the next few years (OECD, 2019[38]).
Source: OECD.
The gap between global capacity and production is likely to have narrowed in 2018,
reflecting the relatively strong growth in global steel production. The gap between capacity
and production is expected to have declined to 425.1 mmt in 2018 (Figure 14. A). As a
result, global production of steel as a per cent of capacity may have increased from 77.2%
in 2017 to 81.0% in 2018 (Figure 14.B).
Figure 14. Global crude steelmaking capacity and crude steel production
A. Capacity-Production gap (mmt) B. Crude steel production as a % of capacity

mmt Capacity-Production Gap (RHS) Capacity (LHS) Production (LHS) mmt Crude steel production as a % of capacity
2 500 1 200 90%
80%
2 000 1 000 70%
60%
1 500 800 50%
40%
1 000 600
30%
20%
500 400
10%
0%
0 200
Note: Capacity data reflect information up to December 2018. Annual production data for 2017 and 2018 are
based on the press release of 25 January 2019 by the World Steel Association (World Steel Association,
2019[18]). Annual production data from 2008 to 2016 are from the “Steel Statistical Yearbook 2018” published
by the World Steel Association (World Steel Association, 2018[39]). Please see the document
[ DSTI/SC(2019)3 ] for further information about updates of new steelmaking capacity investments and
closures, as well as capacity projects that are underway and planned over the next few years (OECD, 2019[38]).
Source: OECD for capacity and World Steel Association for production.
2.8. Global steel market outlook
In its October 2018 Short Range Outlook (SRO), the World Steel Association (worldsteel)
predicts that global finished steel demand will increase by 1.4% in 2019 to reach 1 681.2
million metric tonnes (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). The World Steel Association highlighted that
although the positive momentum of 2017 was carried over to 2018, global steel demand
faces uncertainty from tensions in the global economic environment, in particular trade
tensions, rising currency volatility, and monetary policy tightening.
2.9. Regional steel market outlook
2.9.1. Europe and CIS economies

The World Steel Association expects finished steel demand in 2019 to increase by 1.7% in
the European Union and 1.5% in the Other Europe region, according to its October 2018
SRO (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). Eurofer forecasts the growth of steel consumption to be a
meagre 0.8% in 2019 and 0.9% in 2020, on the back of sluggish demand (Eurofer, 2019[26]).
Steel tube production is estimated to have decreased by 1.4% in 2018 (Eurofer, 2019[26])
and is expected to remain weak, while domestic electric appliance production is expected
to have decreased by 0.5% (Eurofer, 2019[26]). Eurofer further warns that weakening
economic growth worldwide and the possible escalation of trade frictions have tilted the
balance of risks to the downside (Eurofer, 2019[26]).
The World Steel Association expects steel demand growth in the CIS region to ease back
to 0.9% in 2019, according to its October 2018 SRO (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). Severstal, a
major Russian steelmaker, expects that steel demand will be flat in the country’s domestic
market in 2019 because of the construction sector, which is the main steel consuming
industry in Russia (Shulga, 2019[41]). The World Steel Association expects Turkish steel
demand to have contracted in 2018 due to the currency crisis, but the government’s
stabilisation measures and a consequent return to the competitiveness of the manufacturing

sector should help recovery in 2019 (Worldsteel, 2018[40]).
2.9.2. Americas
According to the World Steel Association October 2018 SRO, Central and South American
steel consumption is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2019 to reach 45.1 million metric tonnes
(Worldsteel, 2018[40]). Alacero indicated that robust domestic household consumption has
helped to prevent a contraction in Latin American’s steel consumption in 2018 (Alacero,
2019[15]), but warned that Chinese exports, which increased 28% year-over-year during the
period June to November 2018, could hamper domestic steel production. Latin America
became China’s main steel export market in January 2019 (Kallanish, 2019[42]). The Brazil
Steel Institute estimates that growth of steel domestic sales was 8.9% in 2018 compared to
the previous year, and has optimistic expectations about the measures being announced by
the new Brazilian government (Steel News, 2018[43]). Brazil’s President-elect has been
prioritizing the construction and infrastructure sectors, which should have positive effects
on steel demand (Baida, 2019[44]). The Brazil Steel Institute forecasts an increase of
domestic steel consumption by 6.2% in 2019. However, the World Steel Association notes
that Brazil’s construction sector has yet to recover from its crisis (Worldsteel, 2018[40]).
Some Latin-American economies Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru) are launching new steel mills
in 2019 (OECD, 2019[38]), and others have planned large investments in infrastructure for
the coming years (Honduras, Chile, Colombia) (Baida, 2019[44]). Argentina still has to
recover from the uncertainty and lack of investors’ confidence caused by the strong
devaluation of its currency in August 2018, which affected the country’s steel market
fundamentals (Baida, 2019[44]). Venezuela’s steel market has shrunk, with only two
producers still in operation and at a reduced rate. Most of the country’s steel workers have
been on strike since August 2018 and hyperinflation has limited the purchase of inputs such
as electrodes, refractories, ferroalloys and scrap necessary for steel production (Baida,
2019[44]).
Regarding the NAFTA region, the World Steel Association expected steel demand growth
to moderate to 1% in 2019 (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). US construction material costs have been
rising sharply (Kallanish, 2018[45]), and are expected to stay at elevated levels (Zevin,
2018[46]), which could hamper construction growth by reducing the sector’s profit margins.
The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) predicts the number of new
housing starting to be constructed in 2019 to be roughly equal to 2018 (+0.7%), and to slow
down in 2020 (+0.3%).9 Other forecasters, such as Dodge Data & Analytics, have a more
negative outlook on the housing market, and predicts that the housing sector slowdown will
erase the gains in non-housing construction sectors, resulting in an overall flat (+0.2%)
construction activity in the US in 2019 (Zevin, 2018[46]). The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
reduced the tax advantages of home ownership (by increasing standard deductions and
limiting other deductions), thus reducing the attractiveness of buying new homes (Zevin,
2018[46]). Mexican steel demand growth is expected to ease as well, from a projected 3.5%
in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019, partly because of a moderation of the U.S. car market. Alacero
expects Mexican steel consumption in 2018 to increase by 3% (Metal Expert, 2018[47]). The
World Steel Association noted that in 2018 Mexican steel demand was affected by
uncertainties related to the NAFTA negotiation and the presidential election. The recent
signing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will enable the
economy to slowly recover in 2019 (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). Mexico’s public investment in
civil construction and infrastructure projects is expected to increase in 2019, due to higher
level of public spending, and could account for more than 50% of the nation's steel
consumption in 2019.
2.9.3. Middle East

According to the World Steel Association’s October 2018 forecasts, steel demand in the
Middle East is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2019 to reach 55.1 million metric tonnes
(Worldsteel, 2018[40]). In the Gulf countries, reforms and a stronger oil market have led to
an upward momentum in steel demand, albeit demand is likely to grow at a slower pace
going forward (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). Steel demand in the gulf region is likely to continue
to benefit from investments made in preparation for mega events such as the World Expo
2020 in Dubai and the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar.
The outlook for Iran has turned less favourable recently due to the reinstatement of some
sanctions: the increased difficulty for steel firms to finance deals may force them to reduce
output or downscale projects, as the domestic market would not be able to absorb a higher
level of production (Fastmarkets, 2018[48]). The Iranian government had set an ambitious
target for steel production of 55 million tonnes per year by 2025 as part of its “2025 Vision
Plan” production (Fastmarkets, 2018[48]). The OECD estimates that, should all steel plants
projects already underway be completed as scheduled, Iranian nominal crude steelmaking
capacity would reach 57.7 million metric tons by 2021, a 71% increase compared to the
33.6 million metric tons of capacity at the end of 2018 (OECD, 2019[38]).
The demand for steel products across the U.A.E and the GCC region is set to continue
increasing, driven by a number of construction projects as the U.A.E prepares for the Expo
2020 Dubai event (Khaleej Times, 2019[49]). It is anticipated that steel consumption in the
UAE could grow at a compound annual gross rate of 8% between 2016 and 2020 (Khaleej
Times, 2019[49]). The National Committee for the Steel Industry of Saudi Arabia reports
that the Saudi market requires more than 20 million metric tonnes of steel products today
to meet current domestic demand. This number is likely to increase as more projects that
are part of the Saudi Vision 2030 come on stream10.
Steel demand in the northern region of Iraq could increase due to rebuilding efforts. Iraq’s
demand for concrete reinforcing steel is projected to hit 2.4 million tonnes in 2020 as part
of post-war reconstruction efforts and local factories are projected to produce one million
metric tonnes of steel for that year (Abdullah, 2019[50]).
2.9.4. Asia and Oceania

The October 2018 forecast by the World Steel Association estimates that steel demand in
the Asia and Pacific region should grow by 1.3% in 2019 (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). India and
ASEAN are likely to drive the projected increase in steel use in the region, while steel
demand in China is expected to stagnate in 2019.
According to the latest Short Range Outlook by World Steel Association, Chinese steel
demand is expected to stagnate in 2019 (0.0%) due to the Chinese government’s continued
effort to shift to a more consumption-driven growth path and toughening environmental
regulations. The World Steel Association noted that Chinese steel demand in 2019 could
be boosted if stimulus measures to improve deteriorating economic environment are
introduced, while the ongoing trade dispute with U.S. and a decelerating global economy
could be downside risks for steel demand in China (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). At the same time,
MPI forecasts that Chinese steel demand will decrease by 2.4% in 2019 compared to 2018.
Steel demand in the construction, energy and automotive sectors would decrease in 2019,
while demand in the machinery, shipbuilding, domestic appliances and railway sectors
would continue to register growth (MPI, 2018[16]) (People.cn, 2018[17]).
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereafter “CAAM”),
total automobiles sales (including passenger and commercial vehicles) in China fell by
2.8% in 2018, to a level of 28.1 million vehicles (Figure 15). CAAM indicates that the
weakness of vehicle sales would continue and forecasts that sales would remain flat around
28 million vehicles for 2019 (CAAM, 2019[51]) (Reuters, 2019[52]). On January 2019, China
unveiled a number of measures to boost domestic consumption, particularly of cars and
home appliances, which should increase demand for flat production (Jing, 2019[53]).
Figure 15. Car passenger vehicle sales in China
Year-over-year growth
Source: Datastream.
In China, total current investment by real estate development companies and commercial
building construction companies during the year 2018 increased by about 10% year-over-
year (Figure 16). Chinese investment in real estate in 2018 was underpinned by housing
demand from households, in spite of the already high price level of properties in China.
Nevertheless, the momentum appears to be fading. There has been anecdotal evidence of
large price rebates being offered by Chinese real estate developers (Dunkley and Liu,
2018[54]) (Zuo, 2018[55]). Furthermore, new home prices in first tier cities are estimated to
have risen by only 0.3% year-over-year over the period from January to November 2018
(Hao, 2018[56]). Going forward, China plans to introduce a new property tax law that could
go into effect as soon as 2019, and could decrease the attractiveness of real estate as an
investment, depending on its concrete formulation (Dunkley and Liu, 2018[54]). Real estate
accounted for 63% of Chinese total steel consumption in 2017, according to China's
Metallurgical Planning Institute (Bartholomew, 2018[57]), hence any slowdown in the
demand for housing would greatly affect overall steel demand in China. S&P estimates that
the Chinese property market has already peaked in terms of prices, and forecasts a decline
in prices of 5% in 2019 (Bartholomew, 2018[57]).
Figure 16. Real estate price change and investments
Note: The house price index (y-o-y change) is computed by Reuters based on the price index for newly built
residential properties of 70 large and medium sized Chinese cities produced by the National Bureau of Statistics
of China.
Investment in real estate (y-o-y change) indicates the change in the current amount of investment by the real
estate development companies, commercial buildings construction companies and other real estate
development units of various types of ownership in the construction of house buildings, such as residential
buildings, factory buildings, warehouses, hotels, guesthouses, holiday villages, office buildings, and the
complementary service facilities and land development projects, such as roads, water supply, water drainage,
power supply, heating, telecommunications, land levelling and other projects of infrastructure. It excludes the
activities in simple land transactions.
Source: Datastream, National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Chinese steel demand has also been supported by infrastructure investment projects, such
as construction of roads, bridges and subways. However, the growth rate of investment in
infrastructure (excluding electric power, heat power, gas and water) decelerated in 2018,
and registered a 3.8% increase y-o-y during January-December 2018. This is 15.2
percentage points lower than that in 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of
China (hereafter “NBS”) (NBS, 2019[58]). On the other hand, the China Iron and Steel
Association (hereafter “CISA”) expects that central and local governments would
accelerate the investment in infrastructure, and the growth rate would continue to increase
in 2019 (CISA, 2019[59]). China’s National Development and Reform Commission has
approved urban rail projects in eight cities and regions, with a total investment of RMB
860 billion in December 2018 (Financial Times, 2019[60]). At the same time, there are some
concerns that whether a growth rate in infrastructure could be sustainable because of
continued efforts by the Chinese governments to deleverage the economy (Platts, 2019[61]).
Steel demand in Japan is expected to remain stable. The continuation of an easing of
monetary policy and solid demand associated with the investments related to the Tokyo
Olympics and Paralympic Games should support this development. Japanese steel demand
is forecast to continue to grow by 0.5% in 2019 (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). According to the
Japan Iron and Steel Federation (here after “JISF”), steel demand from the construction
sector in the financial year of 2019-2020 (April 2019-March 2020) is expected to be slightly
higher than the previous financial year because of strong civil engineering activity. The
latter will be supported by an increase in public investments. On the other hand, the
consumption tax increase in Japan (from 8% to 10% in October 2019) would have an
impact on steel demand from the manufacturing sector (JISF, 2018[62]).
While the Japanese economy is expected to continue recovering due to the effects of
monetary policy easing and public investment, increasing industrial production and capital
investment by Japanese companies could support short-term prospects for Japanese steel
demand. However, any further trade frictions and a slowdown of the global economy might
put downward pressure on Japanese economy (Cabinet Office of Japan, 2019[63]).
In Korea, steel demand in 2019 is expected to rebound by 1.1%, after contracting by 4.1%
in 2018 with all its major steel using sectors struggling, according to the latest forecast by
World Steel Association (Worldsteel, 2018[40]).
According to the World Steel Association, India could soon become the world’s second
largest steel-consuming economy, with demand expected to grow by 7.3% in 2019.11
Infrastructure, as well as residential property construction, coupled with favourable
demographics and improving macroeconomic fundamentals, should sustain increases in
steel consumption in India over the longer term (Worldsteel, 2019[64]). Thanks to an
increased focus on the infrastructure sector, particularly towards housing, power
transmission and the railways in the Union Budget 2018-19, domestic steel consumption
growth is likely to continue in the medium term. According to the Investment Information
and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (ICRA), an Indian ratings agency, steel
consumption is expected to grow by around 7% during 2019 and 2020 (Moirangthem,
2019[65]).
The port and shipping sector has been developing rapidly as a consequence of the ‘Make
in India’ initiative (e.g. the Sagarmala programme12). The construction and upgrade of ports
and other maritime infrastructure will continue to require large quantities of steel ("Hellenic
Shipping News Worldwide", 2019[66]). As urbanisation rates increase in India, the
construction sector is likely to continue to support steel demand going forward. Some of
the government initiatives in this area that could continue to contribute to steel include for
example: the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna – Housing for All initiative13, the Sardar Patel
Urban Housing Mission14, the 100 Smart Cities Mission15, or the Urban Infrastructure
Development Scheme for Small & Medium Towns (UIDSSMT).16 The Government of
India is also formulating a draft National Scrap Policy to help increase domestic ferrous
scrap processing ability and reduce scrap imports (Sathish, 2019[67]). The policy is at the
nascent stage and will take some time to be finalised. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy code
introduced in 2016 is expected to help steel firms and banks tackle stressed assets.
(Bruhadeeswaran, 2019[68])
Steel demand in the ASEAN region is expected to resume a solid growth momentum driven
mainly by numerous government-led infrastructure projects in 2019, as steel consumption
in the ASEAN-5 region (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam) is
expected to grow by 6.2% in 2019, according to the latest Short Range Outlook by the
World Steel Association (Worldsteel, 2018[40]). The Philippine government has planned
new infrastructure projects to implement in 2019 that would boost steel consumption.17
Viet Nam is also expected to continue posting positive growth in the short term due to solid
demand from the construction industry (VN Steel, 2018[69]). On the other hand,
postponements of infrastructure projects would have an impact on growth of steel demand
in the region. In September 2018, the governments of Malaysia and Singapore agreed to
postpone the construction of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project for a
period up to the end of May 2020 as an effort to reduce Malaysia’s debt (MyHSR, 2018[70])
(Reuters, 2018[71]). According to some press reports, the Indonesian government also might
postpone some infrastructure projects due to the government’s efforts to reduce the current
account deficit (The Jakarta Post, 2018[72]).
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Endnotes
1
See http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/3549916/index.html for the
official statement by PBOC.
2
Notice that, since the PBOC is not providing full allotment for its main refinancing
operations, the increase of new potential credit that commercial bank can obtain is not
proportional to the increase of their available collateral.
3
See the history of reserve requirement rates in China at:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio
4
In this study, contagion risks between the banking and the shadow-banking sector was
estimated using Granger-causality tests on institutions’ “Distance-to-Default”. Distance-To-
Default is a commonly used concept in financial modelling, used to estimate risks in Basel
II (Chatterjee and Blake, 2015[83]), although it has some limitations due to the commonly
used assumption of a Gaussian process, which can nevertheless be replaced by processes
with jumps or fatter tail distributions (Mercier, 2016[84]).
5
The “Made in China 2025” strategy includes redirecting investments away from sectors
experiencing large excess capacity, such as Steel, towards key sectors set as priorities in the
plan. These sectors are deemed more sophisticated, with higher margins and include for
example the next generation of information technologies, high-end digital control machine
tools and robots, communication technologies or aerospace (OECD, 2018[85]).
6
According to Natixis (Herrero, Ng and Soe, 2017[73]), the government has directly intervened
to allow Sinosteel to convert RMB 27 billion of bank loans into convertible bonds. Swapping
loans for convertible bonds instead of equity allowed obligor banks to avoid having to set
aside the regulatory capital required for holding equity. The Chinese government also,
through its welfare fund SASAC, took a direct participation of RMB 10 billion in the capital
of Sinosteel, which represents a sixth of its total debt.
7
The Steel Weighted Industrial Production Index (SWIP) is the average output of steel using
sectors, weighted by their share in total consumption — see the latest economic and steel
market outlook by EUROFER for its definitions, page 23 (Eurofer, 2019[26]).
8
Demand for EU passenger cars has been declining due to the introduction of WLTP since 1
September 2018. Sales of passenger cars in July and August had been boosted by car
manufacturers cleaning stocks of pre-WLTP vehicles.
9
https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/economic-and-housing-
forecasts.aspx
10
https://vision2030.gov.sa/en
11
Note that India became the largest steel producing economy in 2018 as indicated in Section
2.4 above.
12
https://www.hridayindia.in/; https://www.ibef.org/industry/ports-india-shipping.aspx
13
https://pmaymis.gov.in/
14
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=110393
15
http://smartcities.gov.in/content/
16
https://www.india.gov.in/urban-infrastructure-development-scheme-small-and-medium-
towns
17
In August 2018, the Department of Budget and Management of the Philippines announced
several flagship infrastructure projects which the government plans to implement in 2019,
including construction of sports facilities, railway project, rivers flood control projects and
construction of new container ports and bridges (PHILSTAR Global, 2018[102]).
STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
June
Steel Market Developments provide up-to-date information on global and regional
steel markets. Reviewed and approved by the OECD Steel Committee, they are
disseminated approximately twice a year to allow policymakers, industry, media
and academia to keep abreast of the main trends and recent developments taking
place in steel markets. 2015
The reports provide an overview of recent supply and demand developments and,
when available, forecasts from publicly available sources. Topics of special interest
are occasionally covered, such as developments in steel-related raw material
markets, steelmaking capacity trends or updates on specific regions that are
important for the global steel market.
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@OECDInnovation
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Steel Market Developments: Q2 2019

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Contact: Daichi MABASHI, Daichi.MABASHI@oecd.org, +33 1 45 24 1483;

Recent market developments in the global steel industry .................................................................. 5

Table 1. OECD Economic Projections, November 2018 ........................................................................ 9

Figure 1. Total credit to non-financial corporations (core debt) ........................................................... 10

Figure 7. Steel price for flat products, by region ................................................................................... 25

Box 1. Debt for equity swaps ................................................................................................................ 11

Recent market developments in the global steel industry

2. The economic outlook

2.1. OECD economic outlook

Table 1. OECD Economic Projections, November 2018

Real GDP growth (y-o-y).

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

World 1 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5

Note: 1. Moving nominal GDP weights using purchasing power parities.

2.2. Focus on specific risks to the outlook

2.2.1. Deleveraging and adjustment in the Chinese economy

Figure 1. Total credit to non-financial corporations (core debt)

Debt for equity swaps in China

Box 1. Debt for equity swaps

2.2.2. Slowdown in global economy and trade

Figure 2. World industrial production

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Figure 3. World trade and trade prices

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Figure 4. Steel Purchasing Managers’ indices (PMIs)

2.3. Steel consumption

Figure 5. Consumption of hot-rolled steel products, major economies

2.3.4. European Union

2.4. Steel production

Table 2. World crude steel production developments in 2018

Level, thousand mmt % change, year-on-year

Dec 2018 2017 2018 Dec 2018 2017 2018

EU 14 527 168 549 168 192 10.1 8.6 -0.2

2.5. World steel trade

Table 3 presents recent data on trade developments in the 10 largest steel-producing

Table 3. Steel trade developments across major steel-producing economies

2018 2017 % change, y-o-y

2.6. Steel and steelmaking raw material prices

2.6.1. Steel prices

Figure 7. Steel price for flat products, by region

Source: Platts Steel Business Briefing.

Figure 8. Steel price for rebar products, by region

2.6.2. Steel futures prices

Figure 9. Steel future prices

2.6.3. Steelmaking raw material prices

Figure 10. Prices for key steel-making raw materials

Source: Platts Steel Business Briefing (SBB), Datastream.

Figure 11. Chinese scrap prices continues on upward trend

Source: Home Steel.

Figure 12. Margin between steel and raw materials prices

2.7. The global capacity situation

A. Level (mmt) B. Annual % change.

A. Capacity-Production gap (mmt) B. Crude steel production as a % of capacity

2.8. Global steel market outlook

2.9. Regional steel market outlook

2.9.1. Europe and CIS economies

stabilisation measures and a consequent return to the competitiveness of the manufacturing

2.9.3. Middle East

2.9.4. Asia and Oceania

Figure 15. Car passenger vehicle sales in China

CISA (2019), 深入推进供给侧结构性改革努力提高钢铁行业运行的质量和效益(Deepening [59]

People.cn (2018), 今年钢材需求量增幅远超行业预期明年产需可能双降(The demand for [17]