Total Revenue = No of Meals*(Rev/meal - Cost/meal) - Non Labor fixed cost - Fixed Labor Cost

Variable Distribution Mean Std Dev Min Max Nominal Value

No of Meals/month Normal 3000 1000 -
Revenue/meal Custom Fit Price Prob $ -
$20 25%
$18.50 35%
$16.50 30%
$15 10%
Labor Cost Uniform 5040 6860 $ -

Total Revenue ($3,995)

Total Salary 3500

Cost/meal $ 11
Non Labor FC $ 3,995

Situation Sanjay's Salary

Total Revenue <$3500 $3,500
$3500 < Total Revenue < $ 9000 Total Revenue
Total Revenue >$9000 $9000 + 10%(TR - $9000)
 Gentle Lentil Venture Gentle Lentil Venture
Job in Consulting firm
(without Partnership) (with Partnership)
Expected Salary $ 6,666.67 $ 10,945.27 7,512.89
Max Salary $ 6,666.67 $ 38,707.88 12,132.54
Min Salary $ 6,666.67 $ (13,872.66) 3,500.00
P(Salary<0) 0% 8.96% 0%
P(Salary<3500) 0% 20.88% 0%
P(Salary<5000) 0% 26.29% 28.59%
P(Salary>9000) 0% 53.99% 51.40%
 465936603.xlsx

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 2/29/2020 at 9:57 PM
Simulation stopped on 2/29/2020 at 9:57 PM

Run preferences:
Number of trials run 1,000
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level 95.00%

Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 2.01
Trials/second (average) 497
Random numbers per sec 8,441

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 17
Correlations 0
Correlation matrices 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 6

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Book2]With Partnership

Forecast: Total Revenue Cell: G14

Summary:
Certainty level is 28.6%
Certainty range is from ($8,881) to $5,000 and ∞ to $40,325
Entire range is from ($8,881) to $40,325
Base case is ($3,995)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $273

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case ($3,995)
Mean $10,560
Median $9,293
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,633
Variance $74,528,893
Skewness 0.5113
Kurtosis 2.92
Coeff. of Variation 0.8175
Minimum ($8,881)
Maximum $40,325
Range Width $49,206
Mean Std. Error $273

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Forecast: Total Revenue (cont'd) Cell: G14

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% ($8,881)
10% $205
20% $3,103
30% $5,276
40% $7,407
50% $9,287
60% $11,842
70% $14,724
80% $17,738
90% $22,834
100% $40,325

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Forecast: Total Salary Cell: G16

Summary:
Certainty level is 71.4%
Certainty range is from 5,000.00 to ∞
Entire range is from 3,500.00 to 12,132.54
Base case is 3,500.00
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 86.47

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case 3,500.00
Mean 7,512.89
Median 9,029.33
Mode 3,500.00
Standard Deviation 2,734.50
Variance 7,477,464.91
Skewness -0.4391
Kurtosis 1.57
Coeff. of Variation 0.3640
Minimum 3,500.00
Maximum 12,132.54
Range Width 8,632.54
Mean Std. Error 86.47

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Forecast: Total Salary (cont'd) Cell: G16

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 3,500.00
10% 3,500.00
20% 3,500.00
30% 5,276.20
40% 7,406.51
50% 9,028.73
60% 9,284.20
70% 9,572.40
80% 9,873.76
90% 10,383.41
100% 12,132.54

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Worksheet: [Crystal Ball - Gentle Lentil.xlsx]No Partnership

Forecast: Total Salary Cell: G14

Summary:
Certainty level is 27.5%
Certainty range is from ($8,578) to $5,000 and ∞ to $43,900
Entire range is from ($8,578) to $43,900
Base case is ($3,995)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $267

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case ($3,995)
Mean $10,699
Median $9,992
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,436
Variance $71,173,323
Skewness 0.4458
Kurtosis 3.04
Coeff. of Variation 0.7885
Minimum ($8,578)
Maximum $43,900
Range Width $52,478
Mean Std. Error $267

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Forecast: Total Salary (cont'd) Cell: G14

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% ($8,578)
10% $420
20% $3,173
30% $5,618
40% $7,691
50% $9,986
60% $12,343
70% $14,545
80% $17,272
90% $22,592
100% $43,900

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Worksheet: [Crystal Ball.xlsx]Sheet1

Forecast: Profit Cell: C2

Summary:
Certainty level is 88.3%
Certainty range is from 32.95 to ∞
Entire range is from -10,000.00 to 4,784.34
Base case is -10,000.00
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 83.26

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case -10,000.00
Mean 1,765.95
Median 2,536.59
Mode -10,000.00
Standard Deviation 2,632.88
Variance 6,932,076.04
Skewness -2.68
Kurtosis 10.57
Coeff. of Variation 1.49
Minimum -10,000.00
Maximum 4,784.34
Range Width 14,784.34
Mean Std. Error 83.26

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Forecast: Profit (cont'd) Cell: C2

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% -10,000.00
10% -2,299.24
20% 1,463.91
30% 1,957.66
40% 2,326.61
50% 2,535.81
60% 2,750.49
70% 2,957.60
80% 3,225.19
90% 3,584.15
100% 4,784.34

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Forecast: Profit (C5) Cell: C5

Summary:
Certainty level is 73.5%
Certainty range is from $5,000.00 to $1,000,000,000.00
Entire range is from $(16,867.43) to $44,005.42
Base case is $(3,995.00)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $270.24

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case $(3,995.00)
Mean $10,846.94
Median $10,546.79
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,545.73
Variance $73,029,490.93
Skewness 0.3955
Kurtosis 3.07
Coeff. of Variation 0.7878
Minimum $(16,867.43)
Maximum $44,005.42
Range Width $60,872.86
Mean Std. Error $270.24

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Forecast: Profit (C5) (cont'd) Cell: C5

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% $(16,867.43)
10% $638.05
20% $3,360.21
30% $5,588.74
40% $7,640.89
50% $10,535.74
60% $12,494.76
70% $14,824.64
80% $18,050.59
90% $22,638.65
100% $44,005.42

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Worksheet: [Crystal-Ball-Loan Process Solution.xls]Model

Forecast: Cycle Time Cell: C26

Summary:
Certainty level is 25.6%
Certainty range is from 96 to ∞
Entire range is from 47 to 126
Base case is 92
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0

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Forecast: Cycle Time (cont'd) Cell: C26

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case 92
Mean 89
Median 88
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 12
Variance 135
Skewness 0.2188
Kurtosis 3.03
Coeff. of Variation 0.1310
Minimum 47
Maximum 126
Range Width 79
Mean Std. Error 0

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 47
10% 75
20% 79
30% 82
40% 85
50% 88
60% 91
70% 94
80% 99
90% 104
100% 126

End of Forecasts

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Assumptions

Worksheet: [Book2]With Partnership

Assumption: G12 Cell: G12

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum $5,040.00
Maximum $6,860.00

Assumption: Nominal Value Cell: G6

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00 (=$C$6)
Std. Dev. 1,000.00 (=$D$6)

Assumption: Nominal Value · 2 Cell: G7

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
$15.00 0.10
$16.50 0.30
$18.50 0.35
$20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal Ball - Gentle Lentil.xlsx]No Partnership

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Assumption: G12 Cell: G12

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum $5,040.00
Maximum $6,860.00

Assumption: Nominal Value Cell: G6

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00 (=$C$6)
Std. Dev. 1,000.00 (=$D$6)

Assumption: Nominal Value · 2 Cell: G7

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
$15.00 0.10
$16.50 0.30
$18.50 0.35
$20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal Ball.xlsx]Sheet1

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Assumption: Demand Cell: A2

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
0.00 0.02
1,000.00 0.03
2,000.00 0.05
3,000.00 0.08
4,000.00 0.33
5,000.00 0.29
6,000.00 0.20

Assumption: Demand (A5) Cell: A5

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00
Std. Dev. 1,000.00

Assumption: Demand · 2 Cell: A6

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 5,040.00
Maximum 6,860.00

Assumption: Price Cell: B2

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3.65
Std. Dev. 0.20

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Assumption: Price (B5) Cell: B5

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
15.00 0.10
16.50 0.30
18.50 0.35
20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal-Ball-Loan Process Solution.xls]Model

Assumption: Step 1: Customer Inquiry Cell: C14

Lognormal distribution with parameters:

Location 0.00
Mean 1.00 (=E14)
Std. Dev. 0.25 (=F14)

Assumption: Step 2: Loan Application Cell: C16

Triangular distribution with parameters:

Minimum 8.00 (=E16)
Likeliest 24.00 (=F16)
Maximum 40.00 (=G16)

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Assumption: Step 3: Document Verification Cell: C18

Custom distribution with parameters:

Link to: =E18:G19

Assumption: Step 4: Loan Underwriting Cell: C20

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 1 (=E20)
Maximum 8 (=F20)

Assumption: Step 5: Loan Closing Cell: C22

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 16
Std. Dev. 4

Assumption: Step 6: Loan Disburse Cell: C24

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 16.00 (=E24)
Std. Dev. 4.00 (=F24)

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Assumption: Step 6: Loan Disburse (cont'd) Cell: C24

End of Assumptions

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Sensitivity Charts

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End of Sensitivity Charts

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