Total Salary = No of Meals*(Rev/meal - Cost/meal) - Non Labor fixed cost - Fixed Labor Cost

Variable Distribution Mean Std Dev Min Max Nominal Value

No of Meals/month Normal 3000 1000 -

Revenue/meal Custom Fit Price Prob $ -
$20 25%
$18.50 35%
$16.50 30%
$15 10%
Labor Cost Uniform 5040 6860 $ -

Total Salary ($3,995)

Cost/meal $ 11
Non Labor FC $ 3,995

Gentle Lentil Venture

Job in Consulting firm
(without Partnership)
Expected Salary $ 6,666.67 $ 10,945.27
Max Salary $ 6,666.67 $ 38,707.88
Min Salary $ 6,666.67 $ (13,872.66)
P(Salary<5000) 0% Certainty level is 26.3%
 465936569.xlsx

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 2/29/2020 at 9:45 PM
Simulation stopped on 2/29/2020 at 9:45 PM

Run preferences:
Number of trials run 1,000
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level 95.00%

Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 3.90
Trials/second (average) 256
Random numbers per sec 4,354

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 17
Correlations 0
Correlation matrices 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 6

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [Book2]With Partnership

Forecast: Total Revenue Cell: G14

Summary:
Certainty level is 26.3%
Certainty range is from ($13,873) to $5,000 and ∞ to $38,708
Entire range is from ($13,873) to $38,708
Base case is ($3,995)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $270

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case ($3,995)
Mean $10,945
Median $10,392
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,544
Variance $72,994,924
Skewness 0.3421
Kurtosis 2.81
Coeff. of Variation 0.7806
Minimum ($13,873)
Maximum $38,708
Range Width $52,581
Mean Std. Error $270

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Forecast: Total Revenue (cont'd) Cell: G14

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% ($13,873)
10% $208
20% $3,251
30% $5,996
40% $8,232
50% $10,383
60% $12,460
70% $14,892
80% $18,217
90% $22,678
100% $38,708

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Forecast: Total Salary Cell: G16

Summary:
Certainty level is 73.7%
Certainty range is from 5,000.00 to ∞
Entire range is from 3,500.00 to 11,970.79
Base case is 3,500.00
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 85.51

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case 3,500.00
Mean 7,701.06
Median 9,139.22
Mode 3,500.00
Standard Deviation 2,703.91
Variance 7,311,149.79
Skewness -0.6010
Kurtosis 1.73
Coeff. of Variation 0.3511
Minimum 3,500.00
Maximum 11,970.79
Range Width 8,470.79
Mean Std. Error 85.51

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Forecast: Total Salary (cont'd) Cell: G16

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 3,500.00
10% 3,500.00
20% 3,500.00
30% 5,995.97
40% 8,231.59
50% 9,138.32
60% 9,346.02
70% 9,589.17
80% 9,921.69
90% 10,367.84
100% 11,970.79

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Worksheet: [Crystal Ball - Gentle Lentil.xlsx]No Partnership

Forecast: Total Salary Cell: G14

Summary:
Certainty level is 27.4%
Certainty range is from ($9,737) to $5,000 and ∞ to $42,166
Entire range is from ($9,737) to $42,166
Base case is ($3,995)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $270

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case ($3,995)
Mean $10,812
Median $10,183
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,524
Variance $72,658,703
Skewness 0.6001
Kurtosis 3.39
Coeff. of Variation 0.7884
Minimum ($9,737)
Maximum $42,166
Range Width $51,902
Mean Std. Error $270

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Forecast: Total Salary (cont'd) Cell: G14

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% ($9,737)
10% $617
20% $3,474
30% $5,666
40% $7,977
50% $10,178
60% $12,098
70% $14,377
80% $17,390
90% $22,145
100% $42,166

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Worksheet: [Crystal Ball.xlsx]Sheet1

Forecast: Profit Cell: C2

Summary:
Certainty level is 90.2%
Certainty range is from 32.95 to ∞
Entire range is from -10,000.00 to 5,154.06
Base case is -10,000.00
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 85.77

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case -10,000.00
Mean 1,838.06
Median 2,596.61
Mode -10,000.00
Standard Deviation 2,712.23
Variance 7,356,173.78
Skewness -2.85
Kurtosis 11.38
Coeff. of Variation 1.48
Minimum -10,000.00
Maximum 5,154.06
Range Width 15,154.06
Mean Std. Error 85.77

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Forecast: Profit (cont'd) Cell: C2

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% -10,000.00
10% 134.53
20% 1,503.07
30% 2,037.21
40% 2,340.37
50% 2,595.21
60% 2,828.51
70% 3,050.21
80% 3,274.04
90% 3,612.10
100% 5,154.06

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Forecast: Profit (C5) Cell: C5

Summary:
Certainty level is 63.9%
Certainty range is from $6,667.00 to $1,000,000,000.00
Entire range is from $(12,172.78) to $41,918.59
Base case is $(3,995.00)
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $279.16

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case $(3,995.00)
Mean $10,831.97
Median $9,577.24
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $8,827.75
Variance $77,929,243.72
Skewness 0.6175
Kurtosis 3.17
Coeff. of Variation 0.8150
Minimum $(12,172.78)
Maximum $41,918.59
Range Width $54,091.37
Mean Std. Error $279.16

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Forecast: Profit (C5) (cont'd) Cell: C5

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% $(12,172.78)
10% $485.00
20% $3,213.69
30% $5,378.37
40% $7,645.18
50% $9,559.00
60% $11,929.30
70% $14,416.48
80% $18,221.30
90% $23,304.36
100% $41,918.59

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Worksheet: [Crystal-Ball-Loan Process Solution.xls]Model

Forecast: Cycle Time Cell: C26

Summary:
Certainty level is 28.2%
Certainty range is from 96 to ∞
Entire range is from 53 to 125
Base case is 92
After 1,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0

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Forecast: Cycle Time (cont'd) Cell: C26

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 1,000
Base Case 92
Mean 89
Median 89
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 12
Variance 144
Skewness 0.0282
Kurtosis 2.68
Coeff. of Variation 0.1355
Minimum 53
Maximum 125
Range Width 72
Mean Std. Error 0

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 53
10% 73
20% 78
30% 82
40% 85
50% 89
60% 91
70% 95
80% 99
90% 104
100% 125

End of Forecasts

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Assumptions

Worksheet: [Book2]With Partnership

Assumption: G12 Cell: G12

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum $5,040.00
Maximum $6,860.00

Assumption: Nominal Value Cell: G6

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00 (=$C$6)
Std. Dev. 1,000.00 (=$D$6)

Assumption: Nominal Value · 2 Cell: G7

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
$15.00 0.10
$16.50 0.30
$18.50 0.35
$20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal Ball - Gentle Lentil.xlsx]No Partnership

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Assumption: G12 Cell: G12

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum $5,040.00
Maximum $6,860.00

Assumption: Nominal Value Cell: G6

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00 (=$C$6)
Std. Dev. 1,000.00 (=$D$6)

Assumption: Nominal Value · 2 Cell: G7

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
$15.00 0.10
$16.50 0.30
$18.50 0.35
$20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal Ball.xlsx]Sheet1

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Assumption: Demand Cell: A2

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
0.00 0.02
1,000.00 0.03
2,000.00 0.05
3,000.00 0.08
4,000.00 0.33
5,000.00 0.29
6,000.00 0.20

Assumption: Demand (A5) Cell: A5

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3,000.00
Std. Dev. 1,000.00

Assumption: Demand · 2 Cell: A6

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 5,040.00
Maximum 6,860.00

Assumption: Price Cell: B2

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 3.65
Std. Dev. 0.20

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Assumption: Price (B5) Cell: B5

Custom distribution with parameters:

Value Probability
15.00 0.10
16.50 0.30
18.50 0.35
20.00 0.25

Worksheet: [Crystal-Ball-Loan Process Solution.xls]Model

Assumption: Step 1: Customer Inquiry Cell: C14

Lognormal distribution with parameters:

Location 0.00
Mean 1.00 (=E14)
Std. Dev. 0.25 (=F14)

Assumption: Step 2: Loan Application Cell: C16

Triangular distribution with parameters:

Minimum 8.00 (=E16)
Likeliest 24.00 (=F16)
Maximum 40.00 (=G16)

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Assumption: Step 3: Document Verification Cell: C18

Custom distribution with parameters:

Link to: =E18:G19

Assumption: Step 4: Loan Underwriting Cell: C20

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum 1 (=E20)
Maximum 8 (=F20)

Assumption: Step 5: Loan Closing Cell: C22

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 16
Std. Dev. 4

Assumption: Step 6: Loan Disburse Cell: C24

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 16.00 (=E24)
Std. Dev. 4.00 (=F24)

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Assumption: Step 6: Loan Disburse (cont'd) Cell: C24

End of Assumptions

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Sensitivity Charts

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End of Sensitivity Charts

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