Sei sulla pagina 1di 1

In the ruins of unilateralism

Developments in 2019 suggest that the U.S.’s ability to shape global politics is clearly receding
ability to shape global politics is buys this argument, the question military in NATO, purchased
clearly receding. remains: why is Mr. Trump reluc- S-400 missile defence system from
The U.S. went to Afghanistan in tant to launch new wars? The Russia, NATO’s primary enemy
October 2001, with a vow to des- answer, perhaps, is the wars the and the main geopolitical rival of
troy al-Qaeda and topple the Tali- U.S. launched in the new century, the U.S., despite protests from the
ban regime. Seventeen years later, be it Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya, West. The U.S. expelled Turkey

GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO
Stanly Johny the U.S., desperate to get out of a were not won. Sections in Wash- from the F-35 stealth fighter pro-
stalemated conflict, started direct ington don’t want the U.S. to get gramme and has threatened to im-

I
f one looks for an overarching negotiations with the Taliban. The stuck in another long-drawn con- pose sanctions for the deal. It says
theme that defined global polit- talks almost led to a settlement last flict in West Asia. Here, the U.S.’s Russia could use the system radars
ics in 2019, one might settle for year, with both sides agreeing to a inability to shape outcomes of the to spy on the F-35 jets. Turkey
protests. Angry crowds, especially draft agreement under which the wars it launches is acting as a de- didn’t give in. It now says it could
the youth, revolted against the es- U.S. would pull out most of its terrent against its own war buy Su-57 jets from Russia if the
tablishment in several parts of the troops from Afghanistan in return machines. U.S. does not lift the ban on F-35
world — from Santiago to Hong for assurances from the Taliban the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear sales. Moreover, in response to
Kong, Beirut and New Delhi. But that it would not allow Afghan soil deal in 2018. Mr. Trump’s plan was Cracks in the NATO sanctions threats, Turkey has
the year also saw some defining to be used by transnational terro- to put “maximum pressure” on The North Atlantic Treaty Organi- vowed to shut two U.S. bases in the
trends in geopolitics as well such rists. The agreement, however, Iran through sanctions and force zation (NATO), the Cold War al- country, which would mean a split
as China’s growing assertiveness was not signed as President Do- Tehran to renegotiate the nuclear liance that was formed as a coun- within NATO.
both in trade and foreign policy, nald Trump cancelled the peace deal. But Iran countered it through terweight to the Soviet Union, These incidents do not mean
Iran’s dangerously aggressive, yet process in September after an “maximum resistance”, instead of continued to act as a vehicle of that the U.S.’s dominance over glo-
calculated, behaviour, and the rise American soldier was killed in a giving in. Western military dominance un- bal politics is over. But they do
of Turkey as a new power pole in Taliban attack. A few weeks later, The year 2019 saw Iran repeat- der the leadership of the U.S. in show that America’s long wars and
West Asia. The most important of Mr. Trump resumed the talks. edly provoking the U.S. and its al- the post-Soviet order. The alliance its inability to shape post-war out-
them all, however, was the relative The whole Afghan experience lies. It shot down an American has come under pressure in recent comes are impacting its stature in
decline in America’s power, which shows how the U.S. botched up drone over the Gulf in June, cap- years with the rise of nationalist- an international system that
was manifested through a number the war. The U.S. has a superior tured a British tanker in July and is populist leaders, including Mr. centres around it. If one translates
of crises during the year. hand in conventional warfare. But believed to have either carried out Trump, who have a favourable Immanuel Wallerstein’s world sys-
The U.S. is the world’s mightiest winning a war abroad is not just or orchestrated multiple attacks view of Russian President Vladimir tems theory into geopolitics, the
military power and arguably the about toppling a hostile regime, on oil tankers that pass through Putin and are critical of NATO. U.S., the core of the strategic
centre of the post-Soviet world or- but also about stabilising the coun- the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow wa- These contradictions sharpened world system, is facing revolts in
der. In the 1990s, the U.S.’s domi- try after the regime is toppled. The terway that connects the oil-rich in 2019, suggesting that there are the periphery. If in the 1990s and
nance was at its peak with interna- U.S., history shows, is good at the Gulf with the Arabian Sea through growing cracks in the alliance. In early 2000s, the periphery conti-
tional and multilateral former but fares poorly in the lat- the Gulf of Oman. In September, October, Turkey invaded north- nued to be dependent on the core
organisations getting oversha- ter. It is now left with no other op- two Saudi oil facilities came under eastern Syria’s Kurdish held-terri- and thereby sustained what Wal-
dowed by its pre-eminence. In tion but to reach an agreement attack, which temporarily cut the tories, which had housed U.S. lerstein called the “unequal ex-
2001, after the September 11 terro- with the Taliban for a face-saving kingdom’s oil output by half. Iran troops during the war against the change” between the two, the
rist attacks, it got international exit. That would leave Kabul’s fra- was blamed for the attacks. Islamic State. Ankara practically sands are shifting now. And this is
support for its war in Afghanistan. gile, faction-ridden government The attacks on Saudi facilities forced the Trump administration happening at a time when new
In 2003, the U.S. went ahead with exposed to the Taliban insurgen- challenged the post-war partner- to pull back troops from the areas economic powers (China, for ex-
the plan to bomb Iraq despite the cy, just like the Mohammed Naji- ship between the U.S. and Saudi before it started air strikes. The ample) are on the rise and an old
UN opposition, reminding the bullah government was left to the Arabia that guaranteed American U.S. was relegated to the role of a military power (Russia) is making
world of imperial invasions. But Afghan Mujahideen in 1989 after protection to the kingdom. Still, spectator when a determined Tur- a comeback. The relative decline
the global situation is different, the Soviet withdrawal. The Soviet the only counter-measure the U.S. key first captured some towns on in America’s power coupled with
and more complex today. Union disintegrated in two years, took in response to Iran’s growing the border and then struck a deal the rise of new and old powers
and Najibullah’s government col- provocations was imposing more with Russia to create a buffer bet- point to a structural churning in
The Afghan experience lapsed after a few months. sanctions. One can argue that the ween Turkey and the Kurdish-held the post-Cold War order. In the
Changes under way over the past U.S.’s subdued response doesn’t territories of Syria, which will be world system, the core has never
decade picked up pace in 2019, The Iran stand-off have anything to do with a decline manned by Russian and Turkish been static. Hegemony of a single
showing cracks in the post-Soviet The latest spell in the U.S.-Iran ten- in its power but is rather due to the troops. power is temporary.
order. At least three developments sions was triggered by President reluctance of the sitting President But the biggest crisis emerged
in 2019 suggested that the U.S.’s Trump’s unilateral decision to pull to launch new wars. Even if one when Turkey, the second largest stanly.johny@thehindu.co.in

Potrebbero piacerti anche