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Comparing the spread of COVID-19

between Italy and the United States.
Graeme C. Nash a, Avi Schiffmann b, Shane T. Craig c
Abstract: When aligning two sets of outbreak data, the infection rate of COVID-19 has a statistical
average of 93.5% correlation between Italy and the United States. This indicates a reliable
trend of viral spread (despite a difference in total population size and “patient zero” dates).
If the matching rates continue into the end of the month, the amount of confirmed cases in
the United States may reach ≥25,000 by March 31st, 2020.

Keywords: COVID-19, infectious disease, predictive analytics.

W
HILE THE SPREAD OF COVID-19
isn’t over, enough data exists to
begin analyzing its infection rate.
Italy’s first case (1) was confirmed
on January 31st, and in the span of six weeks, the
country reached a total of 21,157 (2) by March 15th.
Although the number of confirmed cases has only
reached 2,808 in the United States (by that day),
there is data suggesting the rate of infection will
closely mirror that of Italy. As of mid-March, the
number of cases globally is ≈155,000 and rising. (3)
How quickly does it spread?
The first death attributed to COVID-19 in America
was confirmed (4) on February 29th. The number of
infection cases reached a total of 159 by March 5th,
and a week later, the valid cases grew to 1,663. (5)
March 12th claims the majority of that discrepancy.
During the pandemic, it has been shown that the
amount of cases (in any given area that has failed
to take significant measures to flatten the curve)
can double. (6) Infection cases between the 5th and
7th of March (e.g. 159 to 338) support that pattern,
doubling 159 yields 318; even though the area of
effect is the entire United States. Further evidence
to suggest a near exponential growth can be found
between the 5th and 13th of March; the disparity
averages on 9.1%. While this data highlights the
risk of an exponential increase in confirmed cases,
the actual rates do not match 1:1 (as they stagger).
What does a quarantine do?
Restriction of all movement (except for necessity)
began in Italy on March 9th, 2020. Moving into the
countrywide shutdown, the average growth rate
of infection decreased from 31.6% to 23.6%. The
spread of COVID-19 at its peak rate (before the
quarantine) was at 50% growth — at its lowest,
the rate was 20%. The respective amounts after
the shutdown were 44% (at its height), and 10%
(at its lowest). By these numbers, the quarantine
has measuredly decreased the rate of infection.

As of March 16th, the United States has still

Despite having nearly a month in between their
first cases, the data yielded by Italy can predict the
growing infection rate in the United States with
some accuracy. When aligning the outbreak data,
the number of confirmed cases remains parallel to
a deviation of 6.5% on average; the case count on
declined to undergo a countrywide quarantine;
discretionary actions have been taken by states
and companies to reduce the rate of infection
(either by placing a maximum occupancy on any
events, or just postponing and canceling events
altogether). Thirty-eight days had passed since its
first confirmed case of COVID-19 before Italy
responded with a massive shutdown; sixteen days
have passed since the first confirmed case was

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3554959


found in the United States. Twenty-three days
have yet to pass before the number expands to
≈17,000 (if the trend of infection rates between
Italy and the United States remains the same).
Test-kits’ role in accuracy.
As of March 9th, when its quarantine began, Italy
had performed 60,671 tests — the United States
only tested 8,554 patients by that time. In light of
this discrepancy, it is important to discern that the
correlation between countries may be less cogent
than the data would suggest, and that the actual
number individuals carrying COVID-19 may be
significantly larger than is reported. While the
number of test-kits in the United States has been
of limited supply, an extra 500,000 have been
donated, along 1,000,000 face masks, from the co-
founder of Alibaba from China. (7)
If the trend sustains itself.
While the previous line graphic does not align by
day of initial detection (as by February 23rd, Italy
had been experiencing COVID-19 for twenty-three
days, whereas on March 5th, the United States had
only found its first case), it is unknown when the
first genuine cases entered those countries. The
reasoning for the alignment being adjusted as such
is due to the similarity of cases (155 and 159) and
their nearly identical trajectory thereafter.
As of March 15th, Italy is the country with the
penultimate severity of infection, only beneath
that of China; that is why it may be prudent to
monitor the further correlation of rates between
Italy and the United States — if not for any other
reason than to prevent such a dramatic rise in
cases (when compared worldwide); this raises
concern because, as of March 15th, the average rate
among both countries is 93.5% similar.
In the event that total cases reach ≥25,000,
the United States is not sufficiently prepared; the
necessity for ICUs with air pumps is not yet able to
be fulfilled. The symptoms of COVID-19 are very
similar to that of the common cold and influenza;
for that reason, there may be an elevated demand
in test-kits, even in cases where the patient does
not have the illness. Another worrisome obstacle
currently being observed in Italy is the dilemma of
determining who is admitted into the hospital, and
furthermore, who is granted treatment; (8) this is
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3554959
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due to medical facilities being overwhelmed — not
just from COVID-19 patients, but standard visits
that are to be expected at any given time.
In the event of such a rapid growth in cases,
hospitals can be subject to a new patient carrying
the new illness every five minutes. (9) Among the
eleven countries rated in a global study, the United
States was ranked as having the worst healthcare
system. (10) While this study did not include Italy,
the underlying concern is that the United States
may be grossly unprepared for a rapid influx of
≥25,000 patients in the span of just twenty days
(the estimated figure originating from Italy’s case
count reaching over 24,000 by March 15th).
How was this data gathered?
This nonprofessional study began shortly after the
first case of COVID-19 in the United States, and
started recording data (at 11:00 PM GMT-5) daily,
from the CDC, the WHO, and live online reporting
by Avi Schiffmann. b Statistics from Italy (before
March 7th) were provided by Shane T. Craig. c
_________________________________________________________
Sources: (1) Chiara Severgnini. Coronavirus: the first
two cases in Italy (Jan. 31st, 2020).
(2) Associated Press. About 3,500 new
COVID-19 cases confirmed in Italy in 24-
hour span (Mar. 14th, 2020).
(3) Ella Torres, William Mansell. Trump
tests negative for coronavirus; travel ban
extended (Mar. 14th, 2020).
(4) William Mansell, Erin Schumaker.
Trump confirms first known death in U.S.
from coronavirus (Feb. 29th, 2020).
(5) Jon Haworth, Emily Shapiro, et al. Forty
coronavirus deaths in U.S. as Disney park
to close (Mar. 12th, 2020).
(6) Rebecca Tan. Fifty nine coronavirus cases
reported in the District, Maryland and
Virginia (Mar. 13th, 2020).
(7) Kim Lyons. Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma to
donate coronavirus test kits and masks to
the U.S. (Mar. 14th, 2020).
(8) Matta Ferraresi. A coronavirus
cautionary tale from Italy: don’t do what
we did (Mar. 13th, 2020).
(9) Bill Hutchinson, Maggie Rulli. Complete
saturation: Italian hospital is receiving a
new coronavirus patient every five
minutes (Mar. 12th, 2020)
(10) Commonwealth Fund. New eleven
country study: U.S. health care system
has widest gap between people with
higher and lower incomes (Jul. 13th, 2017).