Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Pre-task - Pre-knowledge of the course

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and

Unit Engineering
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be ye ☒ N ☐
enable s o
d
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☐ 2
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☒ ☐ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the Delivery Environment of the activity:
activity: 25 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Friday, February
Saturday, February 01, 2020 14, 2020

Competence to develop:

The student uses the basic concepts in the decision-making process, allowing
you to identify and implement the appropriate methods in the decisions
under an environment of risk or certainty.

Topics to develop:

Pre-knowledge of probability courses, linear algebra and linear programming

to solve situations influenced by the possible occurrences of events, matrix
operations and graphics solution of games.

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

After reviewing individually the environments and resources of the course, in

order to recognize the virtual environment of the same and the use of the
necessary references to solve the exercises of the course, the student must
remember thematic of probabilities to identify the conditions of the events
that will later allow you to make decisions with the use of different models
applied in later units of the course.

In a second exercise they must understand from a graph of solutions that

satisfy the restrictions and conditions of the problem and their behavior
according to events that determine the game success of certain players
conditioned by others that intervene in the system.

In a third exercise we will remember elementary operations of matrices, such

as multiplication of vector by a matrix or matrices by matrices in order to
facilitate the development of finite or infinite state decision problems with
application of Markov labels.

With these three exercises we will start the development of the topics and
activities of the course from the task 1 and successively, since the theory of
decisions starts from a base of topics learned in the courses of probability,
linear algebra and linear programming.

Activities to develop

Next, you will find 3 exercises that make up the pre-task to develop
individually.

Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

To develop the tasks it is necessary to consult the bibliographical references:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-

360), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the
knowledge environment of the course.

In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others
green.

Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a

prime number?

b) How many balls are there in each color?

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and
solution that satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is,
replacing in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value
of zero to graph its lines.
Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the
matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given
the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.

0.3 0.4 0.3

1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5

In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and
for the
monitoring environment
development
Individual:

The student, upon completing each of the proposed

exercises, must submit a document in pdf format, with the
following specifications:

Page 1. Cover.
Page 2. Introduction.
Products to
Page 3. Development exercise 1.
deliver by
Page 4. Development exercise 2.
student
Page 5. Development exercise 3.
Page 6. Conclusions.
Page 7. Bibliography according to APA standards.

Collaborative:

None in this activity.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Planning of Distance learning and in virtual learning

activities for the environments requires a solid planning process
development of against suggested activities for students. In this
collaborative work sense, when working on elements that require the
joint participation of the members of the group, the
need arises to articulate the learning strategy based
 on Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the
process of student training. This approach
emphasizes self-learning and self-training, which are
facilitated by the dynamics of the approach and its
eclectic constructivist conception.

In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is

fostered, taught and learned from problems that
have meaning for students, error is used as an
opportunity to learn rather than punish and an
important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation.
The resources needed to solve the problems are in
the Knowledge Environment. Whenever you have
considered these aspects you can then begin to
develop the phases corresponding to the individual
and collaborative work of the course.

Roles to perform by Recognition of actors as subjects:

the student in the
collaborative group The students at the beginning of the course, in the
space destined to do so, will be recognized as
participants of a collaborative group, they will be
able to present their strengths to the service of the
group and they will define the channels of
communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking
links.) of which will be available to interact
effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the

principle of responsible action, students must design
a work plan based on the analytical reflection of the
activity agenda, the evaluation plan, the guides and
rubrics given for the development of each academic
activity . They will also design a proposal for the
planning of their collaborative work that responds to
the particularities and needs of the learning strategy
and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the

principles of collaborative work and implement them
from the beginning of the academic year and
thereby ensure excellence in their learning processes
and the presentation of academic products that
meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the

student, this principle materializes when defining the
 ways and mechanisms that will enable interaction in
collaborative work. The intention is for students to
participate in the different spaces of Collaborative
Work and the general forum of the Initial
Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute

to the process of the other peers. From this idea, in
the same scenario where interactions occur,
students can contribute to others in terms of
suggesting greater participation to those who do not
intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that
support the process being carried out, among others
that allow the team to advance and that each one
can strengthen its formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should

organize their work to achieve the goals set. It is
important that each one assumes actions in the
development of the work that contribute in the
achievement of good results of the equipment. The
aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of
individual efforts, allow a successful collaborative
exercise. It is also important to consider aspects of
evaluation in the student's exercise, through the
following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the

process in which the student, through an instrument
designed (Survey) recognizes and presents its
strengths and difficulties in the development of
collaborative work. A score has not been assigned
on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow
him / her to progress in his / her formative process
based on the difficulties identified during the
development of the activities, their individual
participation and their interaction with the group.

Roles and Compiler: Consolidate the document that

responsibility for constitutes the final product of the debate, taking
the delivery of into account that the contributions of all the
products by participants have been included and that only the
students participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts to warn those who did not participate, that
they will not be included in the product to be
delivered.
 Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the
rules of submission of work required by the teacher.

Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the

criteria present in the rubric. You must inform the
person in charge of the alerts so that you inform the
other members of the team in case any adjustments
need to be made on the subject.

Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the

products and send the document in the stipulated
times, using the resources destined for the
shipment, and indicate to the other partners that the
delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are

notified of new developments and inform the teacher
through the work forum and messaging of the
course, which has been sent the document.

Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish

(Translation of version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of
science
social. These are published under a Manual that
allows you to have access to the ways in which you
Use of references
should present a scientific article. Here you can find
the most relevant aspects of the sixth edition of the
Manual APA Standards, such as references, citations,
drafting and presentation of tables and figures,
headings and seriation, among others. You can
check how to implement them entering the page
http://normasapa.com/

Plagiarism policy In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article

99, the mistakes that infringe upon the academic
order, among others, are the following: paragraph
e) “To plagiarize is to present as your own work the
whole or part of a writing, report, task or document
of invention performed by another person. It also
implies the use of cites or lack of references, or
includes cites where there is no coincidence between
them and the reference” and paragraph f)”To
reproduce, or copy for profit, educational resources
or results of research products, which have
intellectual rights reserved for the University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face

are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the

 academic work or evaluation, the score
achieved will be zero (0.0) without leading to
disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic
work of any nature, the score achieved will be
zero (0.0), without leading to disciplinary
measures.

4. Evaluation rubric

Rubric evaluation format

Pre-task - Pre-knowledge of the coursep
Type of X
Individual activity Collaborative activity
activity
Moment of X Intermediate, unit
Initial Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
Solving the The student The student
problem of correctly solves the presents an The student does 5
probabilities proposed problem acceptable not solve the
in production according to the use approach according problem according
and of the probabilities to the theory of to the theory of
management and clearly probabilities, probabilities,
identifies the leaving some according to the
problems
elements of the elements of the given indications.
event, fulfilling all problem
the criteria of the unidentified,
 partially fulfilling
guide. the criteria of the
guide.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points

The student The student

correctly partially identifies
Graphic
understands the the parameters of The student does
analysis for
parameters of the the problem from not correctly
solving the
proposed problem the graphical understand the
problema in from the graphical solution, however, parameters of the
production 5
solution, correctly does not answer problem from the
and identifying the correctly the graphical solution.
management solution criteria of solution questions
problems the same. of the same.

Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points

 The student solves
Solution of the in a correct and
The student applies
problem of precise way the
the proposed matrix The student does
operations multiplication of
operations, but the not solve the
with matrices matrices that will
response is not as problems proposed 5
in production allow him later to
expected according in the guide by the
and apply the Markov
to the results of the matrix operations.
chains, fulfilling all
management same.
the criteria of the
problems
guide.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
The student leaves
evidence in the
The student
forum of their
participates in the
progress with at
forum, but does not
least two significant The student does
feedback the
contributions, within not have
Participation contributions of his
the established participation in the 5
in the forum peers, so there is no
times, generating forum of the
effective discussion
effective discussion activity.
of the activities of
with feedback to the
the guide.
contributions of their
peers.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
The PDF document
presents an Although the
The final document
excellent structure, Document presents
does not have the
compiling all the a basic structure, it
Structure of proposed standards
exercises in a single lacks some 5
the report for the construction
document, according requested body
of the work.
to what is required elements.
in the guide.
Until 5 points Until 3 points Until 0 points
Final score 25
 Actividades a desarrollar

A continuación, encontrará 3 ejercicios que conforman la tarea previa para

desarrollar individualmente.

Ejercicio 1. Probabilidades de un evento dado:

Para desarrollar las tareas es necesario consultar las referencias bibliográficas:

Sharma, J. (2016). Investigación de operaciones: teoría y aplicaciones. (págs.

347-360), Nueva Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sexta edición.
Disponible en el entorno de conocimiento del curso.
En una bolsa hay 10 bolas numeradas del 11 al 20, algunas rojas y otras
verdes.

Considere, entonces, un espacio muestral que tiene 10 elementos:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

Con los datos anteriores, responda:

a) Sacamos sin mirar una pelota, ¿cuál es la probabilidad de obtener un

número primo?

b) ¿Cuántas bolas hay en cada color?

Ejercicio 2. Solución gráfica de ecuaciones:

Usando el método gráfico algebraico, determine el punto de corte y la solución

que satisfacen los siguientes sistemas de ecuaciones:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

Para valores de 1 y 0 de la variable x en cada una de las ecuaciones. Es decir,

reemplazar en cada ecuación primero si x toma el valor de 1 y si toma el valor
de cero para representar gráficamente sus líneas.

Ejercicio 3. Operaciones matriciales:

Las cadenas de Markov usan probabilidades de estados anteriores, de ahí que la
multiplicación de matrices es muy importante para resolver este tipo de
problemas. Dadas las siguientes matrices de tamaño (n * m) o (m * m) resuelve el
producto de ellas.

                              0.3 0.4 0.3

1. A = [0.1 0.5 0.4] B = 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A = 0.1 0.5 0.4 B = 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5

En los ejercicios anteriores, resuelva la operación matricial (A * B)