Chemical Geology (Isotope Geoscience Section), 86 ( 1991) 275-285 275

Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam

The statistical distribution of the mean squared weighted

deviation

I. Wendt and C. Carl

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, D-3000 Hannover 51, Germany
(Received November 8, 1988; revised and accepted October 24, 1990)

ABSTRACT

Wendt, I. and Carl, C., 1991. The statistical distribution of the mean squared weighted deviation. Chern. Geol. (Isot.
Gcosci. Sect.), 86: 275-285.

The probability distribution of the mean squared weighted deviation ( MSWD) is derived and its dependence on degrees
of freedom/is shown. The expectation (or mean) value of MSWD =I and is not a function off However, the +I a range
of the expectation value of the MSWD decreases with increasing f The standard deviation of the MSWD is
a=± (2/f) 112 • If MSWD >I+ 2 (2/f) 112 , there is only < 5% probability that the data define an isochron. Use ofMSWD
as a criterion for accepting or rejecting the assumption of an isochron may be applied only if analytical errors a; and ay
are well known. ' '

1. Introduction
When calculating regression lines ( iso-
chrons, discordia, etc.) or regression planes (or
discordia planes) for empirical data with stan-
dard deviations a;, the weighted least mean
squares method is used to obtain the best-fit
line (or plane). Parameters a and b in the
equation for a straight line y=ax+b are cal-
culated by this method. The standard devia-
tions (aa and ab) are calculated for these pa-
rameters from individual errors (ax; and ay;)
(York, 1969; Wendt, 1986). For n points, the
calculated linear regression has ( n- 2) de-
grees of freedom. The procedure is similar for
a discordia plane y=ax+b+cz, which has
( n- 3) degrees of freedom.
A mean squared weighted deviation
( MSWD) or a mean value for chi [where
i= (MSWD) 112 ] is calculated as follows:
MSWD = f - 1 1: ( L1y; 2 I a; 2 )
wheref=degree of freedom and
L1y;=Y;-aX;-b (2)
is the deviation of the ith point from the best-
fit line in y-direction and
(3)
the square of the error in L1y; when coordinates
X; andY; are not correlated. If X; andY; are cor-
related, e.g. as in a Wetherill discordia, then eq.
3 must be expanded by a term that takes this
correlation into consideration (York, 1969;
Ludwig, 1980). For three dimensions (Wendt,
1984) or for non-linear functions, eqs. 2 and 3
also must be expanded accordingly.
The MSWD is commonly used as a statisti-
cal test of the validity of a regression line. As
shown later it should average about 1 when the
observed deviations from the regression line or
plane are within analytical error and there is
no additional scatter (geological error) due to
( 1)
inhomogeneous samples, no common initial
87
Sr/ 86 Sr ratio, Rb or Sr gain or loss between

0 I 68-9622/91/$03.50 © 199 I - Elsevier Science Publishers B. V.

276 I. WENDT AND C. CARL

primary age and present. This, of course, as- n

2
sumes that the analytical error in x and y (ax, X =Il [AyJa,V (4)
and ay;) is known. This can be determined, for
example, by statistical evaluation of replicate has the following distribution:
analyses of several samples or replicate anal- y =YJ (X2) e-x2;2
1
<f-2)/2 (5)
yses of a standard. For example, if an MSWD
of> 3 is obtained for an isochron often points, where f is degree of freedom; and Y 0 is a nor-
the conclusion is often drawn that it is not an malization factor whose value is chosen so that:
isochron, but an "errorchron", as such regres-
sion lines are often called. The interpretation (6)
of such lines in terms of "age" is doubtful, to
say the least.
In contrast, many authors view an MSWD-
value of < 0.3 as confirmation that they have 3. The distribution function of the MSWD
a particularly good isochron. In fact, such a
value only demonstrates that the analytical er- With
ror that has been used, with 99% certainty, has
X=X 2 /f
been considerably overestimated and that a
more exact determination of the error is nec- the following distribution Z1 is obtained (see
essary before the MSWD-value is used as a sta- Bronstein et al., 1979, p. 718):
tistical test. Zf=ZJxf/2-l e-fx/2 (7)
The subject of this paper is the statistical re-
lationships that govern the frequency distri- where ZJ is a normalization factor like in eqn.
bution of the MSWD-values and their appli- 6. Thus, eq. 7 represents a distribution which
cation to regression analyses. approaches zero for both x--.0 and x-.oo and
has a maximum at:
Xmax= 1-2/J (8)
2. The chi-squared distribution
Hence, the x-value of the maximum is< 1 and
approaches unity asf-.oo.
Chi-squared, defined as follows: The normalization factor ZJ in eq. 7 is:

TABLE I

MSWD frequency distribution

f Z(x) X max P(x)

I 0.39894x - 112 e-x 12 (-I) 2erf(x 112 )
2 i.OOOOe-x 0 1-e-x
3 2.0730x 112e- 3x12 ! 2 [ erf{ ( 3x) I /2}- ( 3 /2n) 112x112e-3xi2]
4 4.0000xe- 2x 0.500 i-(1+2x)e- 2x
5 7.4338x312e-5x/2 0.600 2 [ erf{ ( 5x) 112} _ ( 5 /2n) 112e-5xf2(x112 +~x312)]
6 13.500x 2e- 3x 1-e- 3x(1+3x+ix 2 )
7 24.136x512e-7x/2 0.7143 2 [ erf{ ( 7x) 112} _ ( 7 /2n) l/2e- 7x/2{x112 +jx312 + (72 /3.5 )x512)]
8 42.666x 3e- 4 x 0.7500 l-e- 4 x(l +4x+ 8x 2+¥x 3)
9 74. 784x 7 /2e-9x/2 0.7778
10 130.2ix 4 e- 5x 0.8000
THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE MSWD 277

P1{x) =I Zr(x)dx ( 10)

0
1.0

By repeated partial integration of eq. 7 from

0 to x and using a normalization coefficient of
ZJ ( eq. 9), one obtains the following cumula-
tive frequency distribution Pr(x) for even val-
ues off:
X

Pr(x) =I Zr(x)dx
0

f/2-l (fj2)v
= 1-e-fx/2 I Xv (11a)
V=O V!
0.5 1,0 1.5 2.0 2,5
and for odd values off:
Fig. I. MSWD frequency distributions for f (=degree of
freedom)= 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 15 and 20.
Pr(x) ={ erf(fx) 1; 2 - (fj2n) 112 e-fx!l
ZJ = (f/2 )f12 [T(f/2)]- 1 (9)
(/-l)/2F-l2vv! ']
where the gamma function is: X I xv-, (11 b)
v=l (2v)!
00

T(z) =It~- I e- 1 dt where

I-
0

or for even values off, erf(z) = (2n) -t;z e-1z 2 dz

0
(f/2 )f12
0-
(9a)
Zr- (f/2-1 )! The integrals of the frequency distributions
calculated for various values offusing eqs. 11 a
and for odd values off,
and 11 bare shown in Fig. 2. It can be seen that
zo=2(/-l)2J(/-l)/2 [(f-1)/2]! fl'j2 )l/2 with increasingfthe distribution approaches a
/ (f-1 )J VI 7[ normal distribution with a mean at X= 1.
(9b)
5. The expectation (or mean) value ofthe
The normalization factor ZJ in eqs. 9 is MSWD
shown for up to 10 degrees of freedom in Table
I. The distribution function for the MSWD is
shown in Fig. 1 for various degrees of freedom. The mean value, s/, for the MSWD is de-
fined as follows:
4. The cumulative frequency distribution of the
I
00 00

MSWD X= I xZ(x)dx I Z(x)dx= 1 (12)

0 0
The cumulative frequency distribution of the
MSWD is defined as follows: because
278 I. WENDT AND C. CARL

f 99,9

% 99,8
9~5

99

97
95

90

80 X

70
60
50
40
30
20

10

1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.05 IMSWO): x-
0.02
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Fig. 2. Cumulative MSWD frequency distributions for f= 2, 3, 4, 7, I 0, 15 and 20.

co co

j xf/2
co co

j xZ;{x)dx= j Z;{x)dx j xfl2+ I e-f>:/2 dx= (1 + 2/J) e-I</2 dx

0 0 0 0

as can be shown by partial integration when or, combined with eq. 14:

f f
co co
Z;{x) as given by eq. 7 is used.
xf/2+ I e-.fx/2 dx= ( 1+ 2/J) xf/2-1 e-M2 dx
0 0
6. The variance of the MSWD
(15)

The variance, s/, is defined as follows: Thus:

r=1+2/f (16)
(13)
or, combined with eqs. 12 and 13, the mean 1a
First, the expectation value for x 2 must be deviation is:
calculated:
( 17)

j x 2Z;{x)dxIj Z;{x)dx
co co

2 (14) The curves for the confidence intervals for

x =
0 0
P;{x) = 1%, 5%, 10%, 50%,90%,95% and 99%
are shown in Fig. 3. These were calculated from
Partial integration yields: the curves shown in Fig. 2 or from the x2 tables
THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE MSWD
Fig. 3. Maximum of MSWD frequency distribution, ± Ia,
MSWD as function off
(after division by f). Also shown in Fig. 3 is
the value of x for the maximum (X max) of the
distribution function Z.r(x), as well as the val-
ues for x+ 1a, x- 1a and x+ 2a. Due to the
nonsymmetry of the distribution function:
Xmax <Xso <X= 1
Both approach 1 asymptotically with increas-
ing f (whereby the MSWD distribution ap-
proaches a normal distribution). It can also be
seen in Figs. 2 and , 3 that for f> 3, X= 1
+ (21f) I 12 corresponds nearly to the normal
distribution for a confidence interval of """' 84%;
similarly, X= 1 +2(21!) 112 for a confidence
interval of -96% and x=1-(21f) 112 for
- 16% [due to the boundary condition at zero,
this is not the case for X= 1-2(21!) 112 ].
The very simple relationship of eq. 17 thus
permits a decision about the acceptance or
rejection of a hypothesis, e.g. in the case
of an isochron, an MSWD-value of
>[1+2(211) 112 ], where f=n-2 (where
n =the number of points), indicates that with
279
+2a and 1%, 5%, 10%, 50%, 90%, 95% and 99% range of
> 95% probability the isochron 1s an
"errorchron".
In the reverse case, it may be concluded that
a repeatedly obtained MSWD-value of
< [ 1 - ( 2 If) 112 ] is a certain indication that the
analytical errors assumed for the measured
values were too large. It should be stressed here
that all of the decision criteria derived from
MSWD-values have a real basis only when the
analytical error used for their calculation cor-
responds to the actual error. This assumes a
statistically proper error analysis. This can be
done, for example, by statistical analysis of a
large number of replicate analyses of the sam-
ple and a standard. The statistical error for an
isotope ratio obtained by mass spectrometric
measurement, for instance, is not the analyti-
cal error that should be used for this purpose;
it represents only the minimum error.
7. The (MSWD) 112 distribution
Instead of the MSWD also the quantity
z= (MSWD) 112 (a factor of excess scattering)
280 I. WENDT AND C. CARL

TABLE II

Distribution function Zj{ z)

f zf Zmax t az Pj{z)
1 ( 2/n) tl2e-='12 0 0. 7979 0.6028 2erf(z)
2 2ze-•' 0.7071 0.8862 0.4633 1-e-='
l/2
2 erf (3 112z) -c~
3
3 4.146z2e-3•'12 0.8165 0.9213 0.3888 ) ze- 3•'1 2
4 8z3e-2•' 0.8660 0.9399 0.3414 1- ( 1+2z 2)e- 2•'
l/2
5 14.87z 4e- 5•' 12 0.8944 0.9515 0.3076 2erf(5112z)-c~5) (z+iz3) e-5z'l2
2
6 27z 5e-J•' 0.9129 0.9594 0.2821 6 2+-z
1- ( 1+-z 6 4) e-Jz'
2 2·4
2
7 48.27z 6 e- 7 •' 12 0.9258 0.9650 0.2623 2erf(7t12z)- c _·_7f ( z+-z3+--zs
7 72 ) e-7z'l2
77: 1·3 1·3·5
85.33z 7 e- 4•' 0.9354 0.2459 8 32
1- ( 1+-z2+-z4+--z6 83 ) e-4•'
8 0.9693
2 2·4 2-4-6
2
9 149.6zse-9•'12 0.9428 0.9727 0.2322 2erf(9 112z)- c·9f
- ( z+-z 9 3+--z 92 5+ -93- z 7) e- 9•' 12
77: 1·3 1·3·5 1·3·5·7
2 3 4
10 260.4z 9 e- 5=' 0.9487 0.9753 0.2209 ( 10 10 10
1- 1+-z2+-z4+--z6+--zs e-Sz' 10 )
2 2·4 2·4·6 2·4+8

may be used as a quality check of a regression. butions Zj(z) for !=2, 4 and 10 are shown in
The distribution of Z is given by: Fig. 5 on p. 283.
Zj(z)=ZJz<f-l) e-<fl 2 )z 2 For the cumulative frequency distribution
Pj( z) one obtains by successive partial integra-
with tion for even values off:
f/2-1 (!)v 2v
ZJ (2!)112 (f/2)!<f-ll/21
F(f/2)
(18) Pj(z) = 1-e-fz2f2 L - =--, (20a)
V=O 2 V.
For the expected (mean) values one obtains: and for odd values off:
- ,1\1/2 1 r(f) Pj(z) =2 erf[ (jz)l/2]- (2//n)l/2 e-fz2f2
Lf-2 [F(f/2) ]2 (19)
Z= (nf2JJ !<f-l)j112v+l ( + 1)I
X L V "z2v+l (20b)
This rather inconvenient formula can be ap- y=o (2v+2)!
proximated applying Stirling's formula to:
8. Numerical test of regression equations
t- ( 1-1/4/) ( 19a)
and, since z 2 = 1, The best fit of a linear array of data points is
(1/2/) 1/2 usually performed by least-squares methods,
CJZ"' ( 19b)
i.e. minimising the weighted squares of the re-
These approximations are sufficiently precise siduals A;=(Y;-ax;-b) of a straight line
for />4. Zj(z), Zmax• i, CJZ=(l-i 2) 112 and y=ax+b:
Pj(z) are listed for/= 1, ... , 10 in Table II.
MSWD= (n-2)- 1Ew;(Y;-aX;-b) 2 --+ min
The distribution function of z is less skew
(21)
and more symmetrical than the distribution
function of the MSWD. The frequency distri- where the weighting factors W; are the in versed
THE STAT!ST!CAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE MSWD 281

TABLE III which yields the slope a for the best-fit line and
12 data points exactly on the line Y= 0.004x+ 0. 7 b=y-ax.
It can be shown (Wendt, 1976) that also the
Sample X y well-known simple equations:
I
2
5.0
15.0
0.720
0.760
a*= (xy-xy) 1(x 2 -x 2 )
3 25.0 0.800 b*=y-a*x
4 35.0 0.840 aa*2= (Ewi)-I (xz -x2) -I
5 45.0 0.880 ab* 2 =x 2 aa* 2 (24)
6 55.0 0.920
7 65.0 0.960 rab = -x/ (x 2 ) 112
8 75.0 1.000 MSWD= (n-2)- 1.Ewi[ (y 2 -y 2 )
9 85.0 1.040 -a2(x2 -x2)]
10 95.0 1.080
II 105.0 1.120 with wi as given by eq. 22 and x=Iwixj Ewi,
12 115.0 1.160
etc. yield very good approximations a* for a
and b and the difference between the true op-
squared errors of the residuals Ai due to error timal value a and the approximation a* is:
in xi and yi: Ia-a*i « aa
(22) i.e. it is insignificant. The correlation coeffi-
cient rab between a and b is of importance for
for uncorrelated errors ax and oy (for corre-
b vs. a (or vs. t) plots and for the error en vel-
lated errors a term - 2arxyaxi oyi has to be
opes of the best-fit line. If Jy is the deviation
added). The differentiation of eq. 21 in re-
of the error hyperbola from the line y=ax+b,
spect to a and b yields a cubic equation (Ma-
then:
danski, 1959; Mcintyre et al., 1960; York,
1966, 1969, 1967; Brooks et al., 1968). (25)

(23) To apply these very simple equations one has

to start with an assumed slope a (to calculate

TABLE IV

Comparison of calculated and "experimental" values of parameters a and b

Set n a aa (X I0- 5 ) b ab (X 10- 4 ) '•b

(XI0- 3 )
exp. the or. exp. theor. exp. theor.

Theoretical 4.00000 0.7000000

1-12 12 3.9998 1.94 1.87 0.7000116 6.58 6.42 -0.729 -0.698
1-6 6 4.00020 3.38 3.39 0.7000006 7.71 7.62 -0.773 -0.773
7-12 6 3.9931 8.89 8.80 0.7006229 76.1 75.2 -0.980 -0.981
I, 3, ... , II 6 4.0000 2.58 2.54 0.7000152 7.85 7.63 -0.669 -0.641
2, 4, ... , 12 6 4.0000 2.94 2.95 0.6999906 11.7 11.9 -0.795 -0.782
1-4 4 3.9994 5.09 5.09 0.7000051 8.84 8.72 -0.811 -0.811
5-8 4 3.9947 11.2 11.4 0.700332 64.3 65.3 -0.981 -0.982
9-12 4 3.9858 18.7 18.5 0.70138 184.0 181.3 -0.9938 -0.9936
I. 4, 7, 10 4 3.9994 3.12 3.07 0.6999991 8.26 8.06 -0.616 -0.590
2, 5, 8, 11 4 3.9991 3.60 3.57 0.700027 12.6 12.8 -0.764 -0.764
3, 6, 9, 12 4 4.0008 4.18 4.13 0.700007 19.4 19.7 -0.850 -0.847
282 I. WENDT AND C. CARL

TABLE V

Comparison of calculated and "experimental" mean values for MSWD, a( MSWD) and ( MSWD) 11 2

Set n x=MSWD a(MSWD) i= (MSWD) 112 az

exp. theor. exp. theor. exp. theor.

Theoretical 1.00000
1-12 12 0.992 0.453 0.447 0.970 0.975 0.225 0.221
1-6 6 1.086 0.788 0.707 0.979 0.940 0.357 0.341
7-12 6 1.004 0.736 0.707 0.938 0.940 0.352 0.341
1. 3, .... 11 6 0.978 0.684 0.707 0.923 0.940 0.337 0.341
2, 4, ... , 12 6 1.025 0.735 0.707 0.949 0.940 0.352 0.341
1-4 4 0.959 0.945 1.000 0.870 0.886 0.450 0.463
5-8 4 0.986 0.975 1.000 0.879 0.886 0.462 0.463
9-12 4 1.028 1.017 1.000 0.900 0.886 0.467 0.463
1, 4, 7, 10 4 0.980 0.974 1.000 0.873 0.886 0.467 0.463
2, 5, 8, 11 4 1.002 1.006 1.000 0.893 0.886 0.452 0.463
3, 6, 9, 12 4 0.996 0.931 1.000 0.892 0.886 0.447 0.463

%
99.9 Distribution of slope a

995
99
98
95
90

80
70
50
50
40
30
20

01
slope a

3.70 3.80 3.90 1..00 1..10 1..20 t.JO

Fig. 4. Cumulative frequency distribution of slope for f= I 0 (data points 1 to 12) J= 4 (data points 1 to 6 and 7 to 12)
and/= 2 (data points 1 to 4, 5 to 8 and 9 to 12). Symbols: result of numerical test with I 000 samples for each data points;
solid lines: theoretical I a curves according eqs. 24.

the weighting factors) and obtains a first im- In order to test the equations derived in this
proved value for a. After two or three repeti- paper for the MSWD and its standard devia-
tions a stable final value is reached. tion as well as eqs. 24 for the parameters of the
THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE MSWD 283

(a) (b)
MSWD- Dlatrlbutlon ( f•10)

MSWO

VM'§'Wi)- Olatrltlutton Cl•4l

YMSWB'- Olatribullon (1•2)

CumulatiYe Frequency Oiatrlbution

"' ol MSWD

"'"

'·'
,, ,, ,,
Fig. 5. Results of numerical test: frequency distribution and cumulative frequency distribution for f= 10, 4 and 2 for
MSWD (a) and (MSWD) 112 (b). Histograms and symbols: experimental class populations based on 1000 samples; solid
lines: theoretical distribution curves according to equations derived in this paper.
284
best-fit line we have taken 12 equally spaced
data pairs (x,y) located exactly on a straight
line with a=4·10- 3 and b=0.7000 (Table III)
which were overprinted by errors ax= ± 1%
and oy= ± 0.1% by computer simulation with
the random number method a thousand times.
Thus 1000 sets of these 12 x-y pairs if= 10)
were created which only differ by their statis-
tical errors. From these 1000 sets 1000 results
for a, b, rab MSWD and (MSWD) 112 and the
means and standard deviations were calcu-
lated. Splitting the 12 data pairs in two groups
of 6 data each either points 1 to 6 and 7 to 12,
or samples 1, 3, 5, ... , 9, 11 and samples 2, 4,
... , 10, 12, respectively, four different data sets
with/= 4 are obtained. These four groups have
the same a( MSWD) but different aa-, ab- and
rab-values. Splitting the 12 data pairs into three
groups: 1 to 4, 5 to 8 and 9 to 12 or samples ( 1,
4, 7, 10), (2, 5, 8, 11) and (3, 6, 9, 12), re-
spectively, one obtains 6 groups with/=2. The
results of the statistical evaluation of the 1000
variations of the above-mentioned groups are
compiled in Tables IV and V, where also the
"experimentally" obtained values for aa, ab, rab
and a(MSWD) are compared with the corre-
sponding values calculated using eqs. 24.
The calculated a-values show a normal dis-
tribution (Fig. 4) in agreement with the stan-
dard deviation aa as given in eqs. 24.
In Fig. 5a the MSWD- and in Fig. 5b the one
thousand ( MSWD) 112-values grouped into
classes of width 0.2 are presented as histo-
grams while the solid curves represent the
MSWD and ( MSWD) 112 frequency distribu-
tions Z.r(x) and Z.r(z)
Z 10 (x) = 130.21x 4e-sx
Z (z) =260.4 z 9 e- 5z2
10
Z 4 (x) =4xe- 2 x
Z4(z)=8z3e-2z2
Z 2 (x) =e-x
Z 2(z) =2ze-z 2
I. WENDT AND C. CARL
as derived in this paper. Also in Fig. 5 the cu-
mulative theoretical frequency distributions
(solid curves) are compared with the "experi-
mental" values obtained by computer simula-
tion. In all cases the data fit sufficiently well
the theoretical curves.
9. Conclusions
The MSWD or i= (MSWD) 112 may be used
as a statistical test for regression of experimen-
tal data with a theoretical curve if the overall
analytical errors of the data are known. The
expected (mean) value of the MSWD is 1.000
and the ± 1a range= ± ( 2I f) 112 depends on
the degree of freedom f, while for i=
( MSWD) 112 the average value is approxi-
mately 1 - 1I 4f and the ± 1a range is about
± ( 112/) 112 • These simple formulae may serve
as a criterion to decide whether a set of mea-
sured data represents an isochron or a discor-
dia or reject this hypothesis if:
MSWD> 1+2(211) 112
or if:
i> 1-114/+2( 1121) 112
respectively.
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