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Gas supply into downstream (2010-2018) Power generation mix by fuel (2010-2018)
9000 300
Coal Gas
Oil Hydro
8000 Geothermal Other Renewables
250
LNG
5000
MMscfd
Others
150
4000
Fertilizer
3000 100
Industry
2000
50
Power
1000 Generation
0 LNG 0
demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: MEMR, Poten & Partners Source: PLN, IEA, Poten & Partners
Uncontracted LNG
14 35% production*
8 20%
LNG Domestic SPAs
6 15%
LNG Demand
4 10%
Share of LNG in
2 5%
domestic gas
LNG Exports SPA
demand (%)
0 0%
Source: Poten & Partners
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Note: * Excludes potential projects post 2025 such as Abadi LNG
© POTEN & PARTNERS 2009
CONFIDENTIAL
© POTEN & PARTNERS
FEBRUARY 2019
MONTH 2009 Page 3
Indonesia’s domestic gas prices are destined to rise
Driven by rising LNG imports and rising domestic production costs
Other countries have faced the same problems. Diverse strategies, involving price adjustment
and market restructuring, have been pursued
Oil, LNG and Domestic Gas Prices (2010-2018)
25
20
$/MMBtu
15
10
0
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Trinidad USA Nigeria Algeria
Egypt Equatorial Guinea Angola Oman
Yemen Abu Dhabi Norway Belgium
Spain France Netherlands Singapore
Korea Australia Brunei Indonesia
Malaysia Russia JCC NBP
Japan LNG JKM HH Indonesia domestic price
Source: Poten & Partners
© POTEN & PARTNERS 2009
CONFIDENTIAL
© POTEN & PARTNERS
FEBRUARY 2019
MONTH 2009 Page 4
NATURAL GAS & LNG CONSULTING CONTACTS:
AMERICAS (NEW YORK) AMERICAS (HOUSTON) EUROPE, M. EAST, AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC
© POTEN & PARTNERS 2009
CONFIDENTIAL Contact: Majed Limam Contact: Doug Brown Contact: Graham Hartnell Contact: Will Pulsford
© POTEN & PARTNERS
Email: mlimam@poten.com Email: dbrown@poten.com Email: ghartnell@poten.com Email: wpulsford@poten.com
FEBRUARY 2019 Tel: +1 212 230 2000 Tel: +1 713Page
344 2378
5 Tel: +44 20 3747 4820 Tel: +61 8 6468 7943
MONTH 2009