Global warming

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This page is about the current warming of the Earth's climate system. "Climate change" can also
refer to climate trends at any point in Earth's history. For other uses see Global warming
(disambiguation).

Global mean surface-temperature change from 1880 to 2017, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is
the global annual mean, and the red line is the five-year local regression line. The blue uncertainty bars show a
95% confidence interval.

Global warming, also referred to as climate change, is the observed century-scale rise in the
average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.[1][2] Multiple lines of
scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming. [3][4][5] Many of the observed changes
since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature recordwhich extends back to the
mid-19th century, and in paleoclimate proxy records covering thousands of years.[6]
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
Report concluded that "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of
the observed warming since the mid-20th century."[7] The largest human influence has been the
emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Climate
model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century, the global surface
temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in the lowest emissions scenario,
and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in the highest emissions scenario.[8] These findings have been
recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations [9][a] and are not
disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[11][12]
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region.[13]
[14]
 Anticipated effects include increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels,
changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[15] Warming is expected to be
greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme
weather events such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall;
[16]
 ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant
to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of
populated areas due to rising sea levels.[17][18] Because the climate system has a large "inertia" and
greenhouse gases will remain in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will persist for
not only decades or centuries, but for tens of thousands of years to come. [19]
Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions
reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible
future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[20] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic
climate change.[21] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are
required[22] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-
industrial levels,[b] with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[24]
Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global
2015 Pew Research Center report showed that a median of 54% of all respondents asked consider
it "a very serious problem". Significant regional differences exist,
with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual
CO2emissions) among the least concerned.[25]

What Is Global Warming?

The planet is heating up—and fast.

Glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, cloud forests are dying, and

wildlife is scrambling to keep pace. It's becoming clear that humans have
caused most of the past century's warming by releasing heat-trapping gases
as we power our modern lives. Called greenhouse gases, their levels are
higher now than in the last 650,000 years.

We call the result global warming, but it is causing a set of changes to the
Earth's climate, or long-term weather patterns, that varies from place to
place. As the Earth spins each day, the new heat swirls with it, picking up
moisture over the oceans, rising here, settling there. It's changing the
rhythms of climate that all living things have come to rely upon.

What will we do to slow this warming? How will we cope with the changes
we've already set into motion? While we struggle to figure it all out, the face
of the Earth as we know it—coasts, forests, farms and snow-capped
mountains—hangs in the balance.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The "greenhouse effect" is the warming that happens when certain gases in
Earth's atmosphere trap heat. These gases let in light but keep heat from
escaping, like the glass walls of a greenhouse.

First, sunlight shines onto the Earth's surface, where it is absorbed and then
radiates back into the atmosphere as heat. In the atmosphere, “greenhouse”
gases trap some of this heat, and the rest escapes into space. The more
greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere, the more heat gets trapped.

Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since 1824, when Joseph
Fourier calculated that the Earth would be much colder if it had no
atmosphere. This greenhouse effect is what keeps the Earth's climate livable.
Without it, the Earth's surface would be an average of about 60 degrees
Fahrenheit cooler.

In 1895, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered that humans

could enhance the greenhouse effect by making carbon dioxide, a greenhouse
gas. He kicked off 100 years of climate research that has given us a
sophisticated understanding of global warming.

Levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have gone up and down over the Earth's
history, but they have been fairly constant for the past few thousand years.
Global average temperatures have stayed fairly constant over that time as
well, until recently. Through the burning of fossil fuels and other GHG
emissions, humans are enhancing the greenhouse effect and warming Earth.
Scientists often use the term "climate change" instead of global warming.
This is because as the Earth's average temperature climbs, winds and ocean
currents move heat around the globe in ways that can cool some areas, warm
others, and change the amount of rain and snow falling. As a result, the
climate changes differently in different areas.

AREN'T TEMPERATURE CHANGES NATURAL?

The average global temperature and concentrations of carbon dioxide (one of

the major greenhouse gases) have fluctuated on a cycle of hundreds of
thousands of years as the Earth's position relative to the sun has varied. As a
result, ice ages have come and gone.

However, for thousands of years now, emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere

have been balanced out by GHGs that are naturally absorbed. As a result,
GHG concentrations and temperature have been fairly stable. This stability
has allowed human civilization to develop within a consistent climate.

Occasionally, other factors briefly influence global temperatures. Volcanic

eruptions, for example, emit particles that temporarily cool the Earth's
surface. But these have no lasting effect beyond a few years. Other cycles,
such as El Niño, also work on fairly short and predictable cycles.

Now, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere by more than a third since the industrial revolution. Changes
this large have historically taken thousands of years, but are now happening
over the course of decades.
WHY IS THIS A CONCERN?

The rapid rise in greenhouse gases is a problem because it is changing the

climate faster than some living things may be able to adapt. Also, a new and
more unpredictable climate poses unique challenges to all life.

Historically, Earth's climate has regularly shifted back and forth between
temperatures like those we see today and temperatures cold enough that
large sheets of ice covered much of North America and Europe. The
difference between average global temperatures today and during those ice
ages is only about 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit), and these swings
happen slowly, over hundreds of thousands of years.

Now, with concentrations of greenhouse gases rising, Earth's remaining ice

sheets (such as Greenland and Antarctica) are starting to melt too. The extra
water could potentially raise sea levels significantly.

As the mercury rises, the climate can change in unexpected ways. In addition
to sea levels rising, weather can become more extreme. This means more
intense major storms, more rain followed by longer and drier droughts (a
challenge for growing crops), changes in the ranges in which plants and
animals can live, and loss of water supplies that have historically come from
glaciers.

Global Warming Solutions

The planet is warming due to human influence, but can human
innovation save it?

The evidence that humans are causing global warming is strong, but the
question of what to do about it remains controversial. Economics, sociology,
and politics are all important factors in planning for the future.
Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) today, the Earth
would still warm by another degree Fahrenheit or so. But what we do from
today forward makes a big difference. Depending on our choices, scientists
predict that the Earth could eventually warm by as little as 2.5 degrees or as
much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

A commonly cited goal is to stabilize GHG concentrations around 450-550

parts per million (ppm), or about twice pre-industrial levels. This is the point
at which many believe the most damaging impacts of climate change can be
avoided. Current concentrations are about 380 ppm, which means there isn't
much time to lose. According to the IPCC, we'd have to reduce GHG
emissions by 50% to 80% of what they're on track to be in the next century to
reach this level.

There are many possible wedges, including improvements to energy

efficiency and vehicle fuel economy (so less energy has to be produced),
increases in wind and solar power, hydrogen produced from renewable
sources, biofuels (produced from crops), natural gas, and nuclear power.
There is also the potential to capture the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil
fuels and store it underground—a process called "carbon sequestration."

In addition to reducing the gases we emit to the atmosphere, we can also

increase the amount of gases we take out of the atmosphere. Plants and trees
absorb CO2 as they grow, "sequestering" carbon naturally. Increasing
forestlands and making changes to the way we farm could increase the
amount of carbon we're storing. (See "Deforestation.")

Some of these technologies have drawbacks, and different parts of the world
will choose to rely on certain kinds of energy for different reasons, but there
are a variety of options to put us on a path toward a stable climate.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect increases the temperature of the Earth by trapping heat
in our atmosphere. This keeps the temperature of the Earth higher than it would
be if direct heating by the Sun was the only source of warming. 1 When sunlight
reaches the surface of the Earth, some of it is absorbed which warms the
ground and some bounces back to space as heat. Greenhouse gasesthat are in
the atmosphere absorb and then redirect some of this heat back towards the
Earth.2

The greenhouse effect is a major factor in keeping the Earth warm because it
keeps some of the planet's heat that would otherwise escape from the
atmosphere out to space. In fact, without the greenhouse effect the Earth's
average global temperature would be much colder and life on Earth as we know
it would not be possible.3 The difference between the Earth's actual average
temperature 14° C (57.2° F) and the expected effective temperature just with
the Sun's radiation -19° C (-2.2° F) gives us the strength of the greenhouse
effect, which is 33° C.2

The greenhouse effect is a natural process that is millions of years old. It plays
a critical role in regulating the overall temperature of the Earth. The greenhouse
effect was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1827, experimentally verified by
John Tyndall in 1861, and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. 4

How does the greenhouse effect work?

To understand exactly how the greenhouse effect works, imagine the following:
a warm, sunny day where the sun shines bright on the Earth. This sunlight
(shortwave radiation) passes into the planet's atmosphere and warms the
Earth. Part of this energy is absorbed by the Earth's surface, transformed into
heat (longwave radiation) and radiated back towards space. But as this heat
goes up through the atmosphere, some of it is trapped by the different
greenhouse gases and doesn't escape into space. This in turn warms up the
Earth's atmosphere; just like the windows of a greenhouse that lets light in and
keeps the heat within to warm the plants growing inside.

Since some of the heat can't escape into space, it continues to add up which
then warms up the Earth. This is what we call the greenhouse effect. So the
 more greenhouse gases you have in the atmosphere, the more heat stays on
Earth.

If the amount of energy from the sun and the amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere remain the same, then the average temperature on Earth will
also be constant. But this is no longer the case. The amount of greenhouse
gases in our atmosphere is the highest it has been in the last 3 million
years.5 6 This is enhancing the greenhouse effect and making the Earth warmer
than normal, which is affecting the planet's weather patterns, creating global
warming and climate change.

An everyday example of the greenhouse effect

If you open the door of a car that has been left parked in the sun for a couple of
hours, you'll notice that the temperature inside the car is much warmer than
the temperature outside. This is because the windows of the car allow the
sunlight to enter. This light, once inside, is then partially converted into heat.
However, these same windows do not allow the heat inside the car to pass
through as easily as light, so some of this heat accumulates. The net effect is
that more heat remains in than can come out, increasing the temperature inside
the car.

What causes the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is caused by the interaction of the sun's energy with
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and
fluorinated gases in the Earth's atmosphere. The ability of these gases to trap
heat is what causes the greenhouse effect.1

Greenhouse gases are made of three or more atoms. This molecular structure
makes it possible for these gases to trap heat in the atmosphere and then re-
emit it towards the surface which further warms the Earth.7This continuous
cycle of trapping heat leads to an overall increase in global temperatures. This
process, which is very similar to the way a greenhouse works, is why the gases
that can produce this effect are collectively known as greenhouse gases.

The principal forcing gases of the greenhouse effect are:

 Carbon dioxide (CO2)
 Methane (CH4)
 Nitrous oxide (N2O)
 Fluorinated gases
 The main feedback gas of the greenhouse effect is:

 Water vapor

Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the fluorinated gases are all well-
mixed gases in the atmosphere that do not react to changes in temperature and
air pressure, so the levels of these gases are not affected by
condensation.4 Water vapor on the other hand, is a highly active component of
the climate system that responds rapidly to changes in conditions by either
condensing into rain or snow, or evaporating to return to the atmosphere. Thus
the impact of the greenhouse effect is primarily circulated through water vapor,
and it acts as a fast feedback.4

Carbon dioxide and the other non-condensing greenhouse gases are the key
gases within the Earth's atmosphere that sustain the greenhouse effect and
control its strength. Water vapor is a fast-acting feedback but its atmospheric
concentration is controlled by the radiative forcing supplied by the non-
condensing greenhouse gases.

In fact, the greenhouse effect would collapse were it not for the presence of
carbon dioxide and the other non-condensing greenhouse gases. Together the
feedback by the condensing and the forcing by the non-condensing gases within
the atmosphere both play an important role in the greenhouse effect. 4

What is global warming?

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Global warming is the current increase in temperature of the Earth's surface (both land and
water) as well as it's atmosphere. Average temperatures around the world have risen by 0.75°C
(1.4°F) over the last 100 years about two thirds of this increase has occurred since 1975.1 2 In
the past, when the Earth experienced increases in temperature it was the result of natural causes
but today it is being caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produced
by human activities.3

The natural greenhouse effect maintains the Earth's temperature at a safe level making it possible
for humans and many other lifeforms to exist.4However, since the Industrial Revolution human
activities have significantly enhanced the greenhouse effect causing the Earth's average
temperature to rise by almost 1°C. This is creating the global warming we see today. To put this
increase in perspective it is important to understand that during the last ice age, a period of
massive climate change, the average temperature change around the globe was only about
5°C.5 6
A long series of scientific research and international studies has shown, with more than 90%
certainty, that this increase in overall temperatures is due to the greenhouse gases produced by
humans.7 Activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels are the main sources of
these emissions. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major
industrialized countries.8

Global warming is affecting many places around the world. It is accelerating the melting of ice
sheets, permafrost and glaciers which is causing average sea levels to rise.9 10 It is also changing
precipitation and weather patterns in many different places, making some places dryer, with
more intense periods of drought and at the same time making other places wetter, with stronger
storms and increased flooding.11 12 These changes have affected both nature as well as human
society and will continue to have increasingly worse effects if greenhouse gas emissions
continue to grow at the same pace as today.

What causes global warming?

The cause of global warming is the increasing quantity of greenhouse gases in the our
atmosphere produced by human activities, like the burning of fossil fuels or deforestation. These
activities produce large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions which is causing global
warming.7Greenhouse gases trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere to keep the planet warm enough
 to sustain life, this process is called the greenhouse effect.3 It is a natural process and without
these gases, the Earth would be too cold for humans, plants and other creatures to live.

The natural greenhouse effect exists due to the balance of the major types of greenhouse gases.
However, when abnormally high levels of these gases accumulate in the air, more heat starts
getting trapped and leads to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Human-caused emissions
have been increasing greenhouse levels which is raising worldwide temperatures and driving
global warming.3

Greenhouse gas emissions and the enhan ced greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases are produced both naturally and through human activities.
Unfortunately, greenhouse gases generated by human activities are being
added to the atmosphere at a much faster rate than any natural process can
remove them.

Global levels of greenhouse gases have increased dramatically since the dawn
of the Industrial Revolution in the 1750s.7 Only a small group of human
activities are causing the concentration of the main greenhouse gases (carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) to rise:

 The majority of man-made carbon dioxide emissions is from the burning

of fossil fuels such as coal and oil so that humans can power various vehicles,
machinery, keep warm and create electricity. Other important sources come
from land-use changes (ex: deforestation) and industry (ex: cement
production).13
 Methane is created by humans during fossil fuel production and use,
livestock and rice farming, as well as landfills.14
 Nitrous oxide emissions are mainly caused by the use of synthetic
fertilizers for agriculture, fossil fuel combustion and livestock manure
management.15
 Fluorinated gases are used mainly in refrigeration, cooling and
manufacturing applications.16

Deforestation

Deforestation has become a massive undertaking by humans and transforming

forests into farms has a significant number of impacts as far as greenhouse gas
emissions are concerned. For centuries, people have burned and cut down
forests to clear land for agriculture. This has a double effect on the atmosphere
both emiting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and simultaneously reducing
the number of trees that can remove carbon dioxide from the air.
 When forested land is cleared, soil disturbance and increased rates of
decomposition in converted soils both create carbon dioxide emissions. 17This
also increases soil erosion and nutrient leaching which can further reduces the
area's ability to act as a carbon sink.

What are the effects of global warming?

Global warming is damaging the Earth's climate as well as the physical

environment. One of the most visible effects of global warming can be seen in
the Arctic as glaciers, permafrost and sea ice are melting rapidly. Global
warming is harming the environment in several ways including:

 Desertification
 Increased melting of snow and ice
 Sea level rise
 Stronger hurricanes and cyclones

Desertification

Increasing temperatures around the world are making arid and semi-arid areas
even more dry than before. Current research is also showing that the water
cycle is changing and rainfall patterns are shifting to make areas that are
already dry even drier. This is causing water shortages and an intense amount
of distress to the over 2.5 million people in dry regions which are degrading into
desert.18 This process is called desertification.
Increased melting of snow and ice

Around the world, snow and ice is melting at a much faster pace than in the
past. This has been seen in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and
Africa but is particularly true at the Earth's poles.

Perennial ice cover in the Arctic is melting at the rate of 11.5% per decade and
the thickness of the Arctic ice has decreased by 48% since the 1960s. 19 During
the past 30 years, more than a million square miles of sea ice has vanished, an
area equivalent to the size of Norway, Denmark and Sweden combined. 20 The
continent of Antarctica has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24
cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.21 Since 2010, the Antarctic ice melt
rate has doubled.22

Sea level rise

The Earth's sea level has risen by 21 cm (8 inches) since 1880.23 The rate of
rise is accelerating and is now at a pace that has not been seen for at least
5000 years.24 Global warming has caused this by affecting the oceans in two
ways: warmer average temperatures cause ocean waters to expand (thermal
expansion) and the accelerated melting of ice and glaciers increase the amount
of water in the oceans.
Stronger hurricanes and cyclones

Tropical cyclone activity has seen an obvious upswing trend since the early
1970s.25Interestingly, this matches directly with an observed rise in the oceans'
temperature over the same period of time. Since then, the Power Dissipation
Index which measures the destructive power of tropical cyclones has increased
in the Pacific by 35% and in the Atlantic it has nearly doubled. 26 Global
warming also increases the frequency of strong cyclones. Every 1 degree C
increase in sea surface temperature results in a 31% increase in the global
frequency of category 4 and 5 storms.27