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May 2010
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Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Most Indian companies have failed to beat inflation The Sensex churns much more than other leading markets
80%...
…of listed companies have failed to beat
inflation (assumed at 7.9% p.a.) over the last 20
years
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: This exhibit has been reproduced
without any changes from our November 20, 2012 note: “The Nifty in 2022”
b. Conversion of
a. Investment (gross investment to sales (asset
block) turnover, sales)
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: The above chart plots the median performance for RoCE quintiles over the next one year.
Our research over the past five years shows that over and above firm-specific competitive
advantages, three factors are essential for a company to consistently outperform:
Clean accounting: Deciles constructed based on accounting scores show a tight
relationship with stock price performance, with D1 (i.e. the top 10% of BSE500 stocks on
accounting quality) outperforming D10 by a whopping 26% CAGR since April 2007.
Lack of political connectivity: Firms whose central competitive advantage is political
connectivity seldom outperform in India.
Conservative capital allocation: Indian companies are amongst the most aggressive
capital allocators in the world and that aggression costs their shareholders dear.
Our quarterly ‘Good & Clean’ (G&C) portfolios were created in response to these central
drivers of share prices in India.
Cumulative alpha of our ‘Good & Clean’ (G&C) portfolios 3-step construction of our G&C portfolios:
1. Within each sector, we first identify firms that
do well on our ‘greatness’ and ‘accounting’
frameworks.
2. We then overlay our macro outlook and
valuation filters to identify sectors which are
placed favourably.
3. The sector-level champions from step 1 (for
the sectors identified in step 2) constitute
our G&C portfolio.
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Please click here for the latest G&C portfolio.
Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
(1) Cash yield, (2) change in reserves (excluding We first rank stocks on each of the
share premium) to net income excluding 11 ratios individually (outlined in the
Balance sheet dividends, (3) provisions for doubtful debts as a table on the left) within a sector
misstatement checks proportion of debtors more than six months, and
These ranks are then cumulated
(4) contingent liability as a proportion of net
worth.
across parameters to give a final
pecking order on accounting quality
(1) CWIP to gross block, and (2) cumulative CFO for stocks within each sector
Cash pilferage checks
plus CFI to median revenues
Only firms with better than
(1) Audit fees as a proportion of standalone sector average accounting scores
Audit quality checks revenues, and (2) audit fees as a proportion of are deemed suitable for our
total auditor’s remuneration model portfolios
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: This exhibit has been reproduced without any
changes from our November 22, 2013 note: “Accounting quality drives alpha”.
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Myth 3: In sectors such as E&C, Utilities and Capital Goods, weak accounting quality is a certainty.
Several firms in these sectors (such as Elgi Equipment, Cummins India, Thermax, Engineers India, NTPC and
so on) have accounting scores that are far superior to the market average.
Myth 4: Nifty firms have good accounting quality.
33% of Nifty firms have accounting scores well below the market average.
Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
Power Utilities
NTPC +++
Torrent Power +++
Tata Power ++
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Both Ambit’s connected companies JSW Energy +
index and BSE500 have been rebased to 100 at the beginning of 2009
Adani Power +
…whilst non-connected companies such as Idea and Thermax
have outperformed their sectors
Capital Goods
Cummins India +++
Thermax +++
BHEL ++
Suzlon Energy +
Note: +++ denotes accounting score better than the sector
average, ++ de notes accounting score near the sector average
and + denotes accounting score below the sector average
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: As there is no Telecom Index, we have
considered the average performance for the top-6 Telecom companies; share price has
been rebased to 100 at the beginning of 2009
Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
Failed acquisition 7%
15%
Key customer dependency 6%
10% Strategic difusion orconglomeration 5%
Adjacency failures 4%
5% Voluntary growth slowdown 2%
0% Within
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Management's
Control 87%
150%
EXTERNAL FA CTORS 13%
100% Regulatory actions 7%
Outside Economic Downturn 4%
50% Geopolitical changes 1%
Management's
National labor market inflexibility 1%
0% Control 13%
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
Capex (Q1)
Acquisition (Q1)
Note: These exhibits have been reproduced without any changes from our July 31, 2013 note: “The cashflow conundrum for India Inc”.
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
CFO)
China Russia
Mexico 0.1
0
Note: These exhibits have been reproduced without any changes -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
from our July 31, 2013 note: “The cashflow conundrum for
India Inc”. Capex & Acqn (proportion of CFO)
Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
Source: Company filings, Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Both Crompton Greaves’ share price and
BSE Capital Goods Index have been rebased to 100 at the beginning of 2009
Accounting 7-9
Governance 11
Source: Company, Press articles, Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Arshiya and Gateway Distriparks’ share
price as well as Sensex have been rebased to 100 at the beginning of 2009
Co n flict of Interests
15. In the normal course of AMBIT Capital’ s business circumstances may arise that could result in the interests of AMBIT Cap ital conflicting w ith the interests of clients or one client’s interests conflict ing with the interest of another client. AMBIT
Capital makes best efforts to ensure that conflicts are identified and managed and that clients’ interests are protected. AMBIT Capital has policies and procedures in pla ce to control the flow and use of non-public, price sensitive inf ormation
and employees’ personal account trading. Where appropriate and reasonably achievable, AMBIT Capital segregates the activities of staff working in areas where conflicts of interest may arise. However, clients/potential clients of AMBIT
Capital should be aware of these possible conflicts of interests and should make informed decisions in relation to AMBIT Capital’s services.
16. AMBIT Capital and/or its affiliates ma y from time to time have investment banking, investment advisory and other business relationships with companies covered in this Research Report and may receive compensation for the same. Research
analysts provide important inputs into AMBIT Capital’s investment banking and other business selection processes.
17. AMBIT Capital and/or its affiliates ma y seek investment banking or other businesses from the companies co vered in this Research Report and research analysts involved in preparing this Research Report may participate in the solicitation of
such business.
18. In addition to the foregoing, the companies covered in this Research Report may be clients of AMBIT Capital where AMBIT Capital may be required, inter alia, to prepare and publish research reports covering such companies and AMBIT
Capital may receive compensation from such companies in relation to such services. However, the views reflected in this Research Report are objective views, independent of AMBIT Capital’s relationship with such company.
19. In addition, AMBIT Capital may a lso act as a market maker or risk arbitrator or liquidit y provider or ma y have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of co mpanies covered in this Research Report (or in related investments)
and may also be represented in the supervisory board or on any other committee of those companies.