Probability

Lecture -1
 Experiment, Outcomes, and
Sample Space
Definition
An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one
and only one of many observations. These observations are called the
outcomes of the experiment. The collection of all outcomes for
an experiment is called a sample space. A sample space is denoted by S.

The sample space for an experiment can also be

illustrated by drawing either a Venn diagram or a
tree diagram

Tree diagram
 Examples
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail s= {Head, Tail}

Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S= {HH, HT, TH, TT)

Play lottery Win, Lose S= {Win, Lose}

Take a test Pass, Fail S= {Pass, Fail}

Select a worker Male, Female S= {Male, Female}

■ EXAMPLE
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of
tossing a coin once.

Solution This experiment has two possible outcomes: head and tail.

Consequently, the sample space is given by

S = {H, T}, where H = Head and T = Tail

• Example
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of
tossing a coin twice
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Example
Suppose we randomly select two time two workers from a
company and observe whether the worker selected each time
is a man or a woman. Write all the outcomes for this
experiment. Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for this
experiment.
S= {MM, MW, WM, WW}
 Simple and Compound Events

• Event: An event is a collection of one or more

of the outcomes of an experiment.
• An event may be a simple event or a compound
event.
A simple event is also called an elementary
event.
A compound event is also called a composite
event
Simple Event : An event that includes one and
only one of the (final) outcomes for an
experiment and is usually denoted by Ei
Reconsider last Example on selecting two workers from a company and
observing whether the worker selected each time is a man or a woman.
Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, and WW) for this experiment
is a simple event.
These four events can be denoted by E1 E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus
E1 = (MM)
E2 = (MW)
E3 = (WM)
E4 = (WW)
• Compound Event : A compound event is a collection of more
than one outcome for an experiment.
Compound events are denoted by A, B, C, D,... or by A1 A2, A3,...,
B1 B2, B3,...,
• Ex : In a group of people, some are in favor of civil
engineering and others are against it. Two persons are
selected at random from this group and asked whether
they are:

(a) Both persons are in favor of civil engineering.

(b) At most one person is against civil engineering.

(c) Exactly one person is in favor of civil engineering

(d) Both persons are in against of civil engineering.
 F = a person is in favor of Civil engineering
A = a person is against Civil engineering

This experiment has the following four outcomes:

FF = both persons are in favor of civil engineering

FA = the first person is in favor and the second is against

AF = the first person is against and the second is in favor

AA = both persons are against civil engineering

(a)The event “both persons are in favor of civil engineering”
will occur if FF is obtained. Thus,
Both persons are in favor of civil engineering = {FF}
Because this event includes only one of the final four outcomes, it
is a simple event.

(b)The event “at least one person is against genetic

engineering” will occur if either none or one of the persons
selected is against genetic engineering.
Consequently,
At least one person is against civil engineering = {AA, FA, AF}
Because this event includes more than one outcome, it is a
compound event.
(c) The event “exactly one person is in favor of civil engineering” will occur
if one of the two persons selected is in favor and the other is against civil
engineering. Hence, it includes the following two outcomes:
Exactly one person is in favor of Civil engineering
= {FA, AF}
Because this event includes more than one outcome, it is a compound event.
(d)The event “both persons are against of civil engineering”
will occur if AA is obtained. Thus,
Both persons are in favor of civil engineering = {AA}
Because this event includes only one of the final four outcomes, it is a
simple event.
EXAMPLE

Reconsider last Example on selecting two workers from a company

And observing whether the worker selected each time is a man or a
woman. Let A be the event that at most one man is selected. Event A
will occur if either no man or one man is selected. hence, the event
A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}
Because event A contains more than
one outcome, it is a compound event.
Calculating Probability
• Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.
• Two properties of probability:

1- The probability of an event always lies in

the range 0 to 1.

Whether it is a simple or a compound event,

the probability of an event is never less than 0
Or greater than 1.
0 < <1
An event that cannot occur has zero probability; such an event
is called an impossible event.
An event that is certain to occur has a probability equal to 1 and
is called a sure event. That is,
For an impossible event M : P(M) = 0
For a sure event C : P(C) = 1
2- The sum of probabilities of all simple event (all
possible outcome) for an experiment is always 1.
• Denoted by
P(Ei)
 P( Ei)  P( E1)  P( E 2)  P( E 3)  .....  1
From this property, for the experiment of one
toss of a coin,
P(H) + P(T) = 1
For the experiment of two tosses of a coin,
P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH) + P(TT) =1
For one game of football by a professional team,
P(win) + P(loss) + P(tie) = 1
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability
(For simple event)

P(Ei) = 1
total number of outcome for the experiment

(For compound event)

number of outcome favorable to A
P(A)=
total number of outcome for the experiment
• Ex : Find the probability of obtaining a head
and the probability of obtaining a tail for one
toss of a coin.
1
P(Head)=
Total number of outcomes

1
 0.5
2
• Ex: Find the probability of obtaining an even
number in one roll of a die.
• This experiment has a total of six outcomes: 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
• A = {2, 4, 6}

• P(A)=
 relative frequency concept of
probability
• If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed/times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability
P (A)=f/n
Example
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at
a certain auto factory are found to be lemons.
Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly,
what is the probability that the next car manufactured
at this auto factory is a lemon?
• Solution: Let n denote the total number of
cars in the sample and f the number of lemons
in n
• P (next car is lemon)=f/n=10/500=0.02

Car frequency Relative Frequency

Good 490 490/500 = .98

Lemon 10 10/500 = .02
n = 500 Sum = 1.00
• Law of Large Numbers If an experiment is
repeated again and again, the probability of an
event obtained from the relative frequency
approaches (will be near) the actual or theoretical
probability.
Counting Rule
• Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes If an
experiment consists of three steps, and if the
first step can result in m outcomes, the second
step in n outcomes, and the third step in k
outcomes, then
• Total outcomes for the experiment = m • n • k
Example:
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This experiment
has three steps: the first toss, the second toss, and the
third toss. Each step has two outcomes: a head and a
tail. Thus,

Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2X2X2 = 8

HHH, HHT, HTH. HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
Example:
A company puts a code on each different product they
sell. The code is made up of 3 numbers and 2 letters.
How many different codes are possible?

There are 5 stages (number 1, number 2, number 3,

letter 1 and letter 2).
There are 10 possible numbers: 0 – 9.
There are 26 possible letters: A – Z.
So we have:
10 * 10 * 10 * 26 * 26 = 676000 possible codes.
EXAMPLE:

EXAMPLE:
For example, if you own 3 slacks, 4 shirts, 2 pairs
of shoes, 2 pairs of socks, 1 undergarment and 2
coats, then you can combine your dresswear into

3x4x2x2x1x2 = 96 distinct outfits.