00 mi piace00 non mi piace

2 visualizzazioni65 pagineQMB

Mar 03, 2020

© © All Rights Reserved

2 visualizzazioni

00 mi piace00 non mi piace

Sei sulla pagina 1di 65

MARATHALLI, BANGALORE

(Affiliated to Bangalore University)

A Recipient of Prestigious Rajyotsava State Award 2012 conferred by the Government of Karnataka

(QMB II)

Prepared By

Nandita Matad

Tel : +91-80-6629 7777 Fax : +91-80-2844 0770

E-mail : principalnhc.edu@gmail.com

Web : www.newhorizonindia.edu

1

TITLES PAGE NUMBER

S.NO

1. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS 4-15

TENDENCY

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

7. REFERENCE BOOK 57

PAPER

2

3

1: INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS

INTRODUCTION:

Today our culture has become a statistical culture because every citizen finds statistics in

newspaper, magazines, advertisement in radios and televisions etc.

The figures relating to the various aspects of his life social political and economic

represent and support the absolute facts and situations. The reader analysis the figures and

arrives at certain conclusion.

EXAMPLE:

A prospective investor is interested in the profitability of the business enterprise and his

analysis the income statement and balance sheet of the enterprise for a number of years. Such

analysis helps him to decide whether to invest or not.

DEFINITION OF STATISTICS.

(b)Plural sense.

and analyzing numerical data.

DEFENITION 2

By Prof Horace Secrist: Statistics may be defined as the aggregate of facts affected to a

marked extent by multiplicity of causes, numerically expressed enumerated or estimated

according to a reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner, for a

predetermined purpose and placed in relation to each other.

DEFENITION 3

presentation, analysis and interpretation of numerical data.

COLLECTION:

It is the first step in statistical investigation. The collection part is the backbone of the enquiry.

If the of data is not in proper form in that case conclusion drawn can never be reliable.

4

The source of collection may be primary or secondary data.

Primary data: If the data are collected originally by the investigator for the given enquiry it

is termed as primary data.

Secondary data: if he makes use of the data which had been earlier collected by someone

else, it is termed as secondary data.

PRESENTATION: After collection and organizing the data should be presented. If the

data are presented systematically, the statistical analysis gets facilitated. As far as the

presentation of data is concerned either through diagrams or graphs. The classified data is to be

presented in such a way that it becomes easily understandable.

ANALYSIS :

Once the data is collected, presented the next step is that of analysis is to prepare data in such a

fashion so as to arrive at certain definite conclusion.

2. Measure of dispersion .

INTERPRETATION:

The last stage of statistical investigation is to drive the results and give comments on

the enquiry in question. Interpretation is to draw conclusion from the data collected and

analyzed. If the analyzed data is not properly interpretated the whole object of the enquiry may

be erroneous.

USES OF STATISTICS:

Every field of human activity makes use of statistics. Business houses, Government,

departments public sector undertaking, social reformers, economist etc, all use statistics.

The important uses of statistics to different sectors of the society are given below.

1.Statistics is the arithmetic of human welfare because the problems relating to unemployment,

food storage, poverty etc, cannot be analyzed without the use of statistics.

2. Statistics are great use to business man. A business man can estimate demand for his

product in different parts of the year correctly with the help of statistics.

2.It is useful to insurance companies because the insurance companies need exact information

of vital statistics to prepare mortality table and premium plans.

3.Statistics is very useful to bankers and banking industry in deciding the policies regarding

deposits advances etc.

5

4.Statistics analysis of railway working is very useful in determining the efficiency of services

their requirements and their expansion programmes.

5.Statistics is very useful to finance ministers who prepare annual budget and outlines the

physical policy on the basis of statistics collected in the various departments.

6.The educationist makes use of statistics for evaluating the performance of students and

teacher.

7.Statistics helps the administrator to know the social and economic ambitions of the society.

8.It is very much useful to the economists who prepares economic planes and frame economic

policies for the state.

9.It is useful to social reformer who has to carry on his activities based on statistics. The

incident of certain diseases, seriousness of beggar problem, child marriage etc, all need

statistics for their solution.

OBJECTS OF STATISTICS:

1.To throw light on the complex man data and make sense from them.

2.To take action on the data processed.

3.To draw conclusion on the analyzed data.

4.To estimate and forecast the trends in future from the past data.

5.To ascertain the reliability of statements.

6.To assist the research studies in gaining knowledge.

7.To prove unknown from the known data.

8.To examine change in the economic activities.

FUNCTIONS OF STATISTICS:

2.It helps the research workers in efficient and proper planning of any field of enquiry.

3.It guides in appropriate quantitative data.

4.It simplifies complex and un wieldy data and presents the same in an attractive form.

5.It studies quantitative observations to enlarge individual knowledge.

6.It guides the business in planning.

7.It discloses the facts hidden in the mass data.

8.It establishes relationship among the related data.

LIMITATION OF STATISTICS:

Science of statistics suffers from various limitations. If the limitations are not kept in mind the

conclusions reached will not be dependable. The following are the main limitations of statistics.

Statistics does not deal with the aggregates rather than individuals. An individual item like

weight of a student in a class is 60kg is not called as statistics. In statistical method we deal

with aggregates and not with single figure. When we say that the average weight of a class is

60kgs this individual value refers to the aggregate of individuals.

6

2.Quantitative aspect ignored:

Statistical methods cannot study the nature of phenomenon which cannot be

expressed in quantitative form. The phenomenon which cannot be a part of the study of

statistics. These characteristics include health intelligence, beauty, honesty etc. there is no

doubt that the data which cannot be quantitatively expressed needs conversion of qualitative

data into quantitative data then we can easily apply the statistics techniques on this converted

data.

Statistics can be misused by ignorant (or) wrongly motivated persons. The data

used by untrained people can lead to misleading results.

Laws of physical science are perfect but statistical laws are not so perfect as the

laws of physics (or) chemistry. Statistical results are true only on the average.

Statistics is only one of the methods of studying a problems like culture, religion

etc, and statistics simplifies complicated data. Before using the data the background of the data

may be studied.

It provides solutions to the problems but does not study the problems themselves.

It is only a mean to an end but not at end itself.

DISTRUST OF STATISTICS:

The improper use of statistical tools by unscrupulous people with an improper statistical bend

of mind has led to the public distrust in statistics. By this we mean that public loses its belief,

faith and confidence in the science of statistics and starts condemning it. Such irresponsible,

inexperienced and dishonest persons who use statistical data and statistical techniques to fulfill

their selfish motives have discredited the science of statistics with some very interesting

comments, some of which are stated below:

2. Statistics can prove anything.

3. Figure do not lie, Liars figure.

4. Statistics is an unreliable science

Some of the reasons for the above remarks may be enumerated as follows.

7

a) Figures are innocent and believable and the facts base on them are psychologically more

convincing. By it is a pity that figures do not have the label of quality on their face.

b) Arguments are put forward to establish certain result which are not true by making use of

in-accurate figures or by using incomplete data. This destroying the truth.

c) Though accurate, the figures might be molded and manipulated by dishonest and

unscrupulous persons to conceal the truth and present a working and distorted picture of the

facts to the public for personal and selfish motives.

Hence if statistics and its tools are misused the fault does not lies

with the science of statistics rather, it is the people who misuse it, are to be blamed.

8

COLLECTION AND TABULATION OF DATA.

recording of relevant, accurate facts and figures relating to a certain phenomenon.

Sources of Data

1) Primary source.

2) Secondary source.

Primary Source:

The data which are originally collected for the first time are called Primary

Data.

“Census” or “sample” technique is adopted in collecting the primary data. The collected raw

data is edited and scrutinized by detecting the errors and omitting the irrelevant and

inconsistent information.

i. Direct Personal observations:

Investigations themselves go to the field personally observe and

collect the information from the informants.

Investigations used to appoint experienced enumerators to collect the

data. The enumerators are asked to interview the respondents and record the answer given by

them.

Investigators used to appoint local agents or correspondents in different parts of the

area to collect the data.

iv. Questionnaires:

A questionnaire is a list of logically arranged questions relating to the field of

enquiry and providing space for the answer to be filled in by the respondents.

v. Schedules:

enumerators. The enumerators discuss personally with the respondents and record their

answers in the schedule.

9

Secondary sources are sources of data which consists of readily

available compendia and already compiled information. They consist of published records,

reports and unpublished but already used records.

1) Published Sources:

It refers to the data sources which are available in printed format. Like

journals, newspapers, books, websites etc.

2) Unpublished Sources:

The data which are not available in printed form. There are various data

available which are unwritten in any format.

Secrets in business sectors, unwritten rules,

unofficial activities which cannot be published.

1) Census Technique.

2) Sample Technique.

Census Technique:

When each and every unit of population under study is considered and

collected for a statistical investigation.

Sample Technique:

The terminology “sampling” means the process of selecting a part of the

population under study with a view to obtaining information about the whole population.

Classification of Data.

Classification is the process of arranging the data into sequences and groups according to their

common characteristics them in to different but related parts.

-by- Horace Secrist.

1. To condense the mass of data.

2. To facilitate comparison.

3. To bring homogeneity to heterogeneous features of raw data.

4. To highlight the most significant features contained in the data at a grance.

10

Qualitative Classification: Data are classified according to attribute or characteristics or

qualities. Generally the qualitative phenomena are not measurable. However, they can be

studied with reference to their presence or absence like educated or uneducated, married and

unmarried, boys and girls so on.

Simple classification - It involves only 2 fold (two-fold).

Arbitrary-> It refers to the attribute, which are not clearly defined and which no demarcation

can be made. Ex:- tall persons and short persons . we should give the correct height above

which the persons are considered tall and below which they are short.

Quantitative Classification.

Data are classified according to quantities that are measurable such as

age, weight, marks, price and so on.

11

Tabulation

A statistical table is the logical listing of related quantitative data is vertical columns and

horizontal rows of number with sufficient explanatory and qualifying words, phrases and

statements in the form of titles, heading and footnotes to make clear the full meaning of data

and their origin.

-by Tuttle.

1. Table number

2. Title of Table.

3. Data.

4. Row designation.

5. column Heading.

6. Body of the Table.

7. Head note.

8. source of Data.

9. Foot note.

Types of Tabulation.

1.Simple Tabulation (one-way):-

When the data are tabulated to one characteristics.

Ex: - Table showing number of employees in Canara Bank according to age-group.

Below 30 15

30-40 18

40-50 9

50 and 3

Above

12

2.Double Table:-

When data are tabulated to 2 characteristics at a time.

Ex:-

Table showing number of employees in Canara Bank according to age and sex

Sex Male Female

(in year)

Below 30 9 6 15

30-40 10 8 18

40-50 2 7 9

50 and Above - 3 3

Total 21 24 45

3.Complex Table:- Table showing number of employees in Canara Bank according to age, sex

and marital status.

Marital Total

Status Male Female

Sex

Mrd. Total Un.Mrd.

Below 30 3 6 9 2 4 6 15

30-40 2 8 10 4 4 8 18

40-50 1 1 2 7 - 7 9

50 and - - - 3 - 3 3

Above

Total 6 15 21 16 8 24 45

Ex:-

In a sample study about coffee habit in 2 town the following

information was received.

13

Town-A : Females were 40%, Total coffee drinkers were 45%

and Males non-coffee drinkers were 20%.

Town-B : Males were 55% Males non-coffee drinkers were

30% and females coffee drinkers were 15%.

Represent the above in tabular form.

Town A B

Habit e e

Coffee drinker 40 5 45 25 15 40

Non coffee 20 35 55 30 30 60

drinker

DIAGRAMS

Diagrams are visual aids of presenting the data in pictures, geometric figures

and curves. They present huge mass of quantitative data in a condensed form

attractively.

OBJECTS:

1) TITLE: Every diagram and graph must be given a suitable title. The title

should communicate and details of data presented in that diagram.

2) SCALE: As a guiding principle, the scale should be selected consistent with

the size of the paper and nature of the data to be displayed, so that the diagram obtained

is either too small or too big.

3) WIDTH AND HEIGHT: A proper proportion between the width and height

of the diagram should be maintained to make it look attractive and understandable.

4) INDEX: An index explaining different types of shades colours used should be

given.

5) NEAT AND SIMPLE: To be effective, the diagrams should be prepared

neatly and they should be simple to understand.

USES:

2) They leave everlasting impression on the minds of laymen who are not

interested in devoting much time to see the numerical data.

3) They save time which would otherwise be lost in studying the numerical data.

4) They make the entire data visible at a glance.

14

LIMITATIONS:

2) They are much useful to a common man than an expert.

3) Diagrams and graphs are not available for mathematical treatment of data.

4) They can be easily maneuvered(manipulate).

DIAGRAMS GRAPHS

They can be drawn on only paper- They can only be drawn on graph

plane (or) graph. papers.

Lines, bars, rectangles, circles, cubes, Dots, dashes, dot-dashes and curves

pictures are used in diagrams. are used in graphs.

They furnish information They furnish information in detail.

approximately. They depict time series and

They depict categorical and frequently distribution.

geographical data. They are easy to draw.

They are not easy to draw.

15

2: MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

REQUISTIES OF A GOOD AVERAGE:

based on all the observations, rigidly defined and capable of further algebraic treatment. It

should have sampling stability. It should not be unduly affected by the extreme values.

ARITHMETIC MEAN

It is the quantity obtained by dividing the sum of the values of the items in a variable

by the number of items.

PROBLEM:

data .

No of workers: 8 3 11 14 5 7 2

y

(f) Mid d=X-

point A

72-80 14 76 1064 0 0 0 0

80-88 5 84 420 8 40 1 5

96- 2 200 24 48 3 6

104 100

n=∑f=50 3672 -128 -16

16

1 .DIRECT METHOD:

2. SHORTCUT METHOD:

MERITS:

2) It takes into consideration every item in the series in computation.

3) Its concept is familiar to most people.

4) Every data set has one and only one mean.

DEMERITS:

1) IT is very much affected by extreme value

2) Not useful in case of open-end classes.

3) It is not always reliable.

4) It may give wrong impression, if proper weights are not given.

MEDIAN:

Median is the value which divides the given series into two equal parts.

INDIVIDUAL OBSERVATION:

25 36 45 68 75

𝒏+𝟏 𝒕𝒉

Median is the size of( ) item

𝟐

5+1

n=5 = 3 item , so

2

Median is 45

DISCRETE SERIES

Problem:

Calculate median from the following data.

Value: 10 20 30 40 50 60.

Frequency: 28 36 24 32 40 16

17

Values Frequency(f) Cumulative

frequency(c.f)

10 28 28

20 36 64

30 24 88

40 32 120

50 40 160

60 16 176

176

𝒏+𝟏 𝑡ℎ

Median is the size of( ) item

𝟐

176+1

n=176 = =88.5

2

The value of X against 120 is 40

Therefore , 𝑀𝑒 is 40

CONTINUOUS SERIES

Problem:

Calculate median from the following data.

Value: 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70.

Frequency: 28 36 24 32 40 16

frequency(c.f)

10-20 28 28

20-30 36 64

30-40 24 88

40-50 32 120

50-60 40 160

60-70 16 176

176

𝒏

Median is the size of( 𝟐)𝑡ℎ item

176

n=176 = =88

2

The value of X against 120 is 40-50

Therefore median class is 40-50 ,

Me= l + i/f(n/2 - m)

= 40+ 10/32(88-88)

𝑀𝑒 is 40

18

MERITS OF MEDIAN:

2) It indicates the value of middle item in the distribution.

3) It can be determined just by inspection of the arrayed data.

4) Extreme values do not affect the median as strongly as they do the mean.

DEMERITS OF MEDIAN:

2) It is a positional average, therefore each and every observation is not considered.

3) It ignores the extreme value.

4) It is not capable of further algebraic treatment as it is not based on mathematical property.

MODE:

Mode is the value which occurs more frequently in a set of observation and around which

the other items of the set of observations clustered densely. It is denoted by „Z‟.

INDIVIDUAL OBSERVATION:

The mode is 64, as it occurs the highest number of times in the series. So the mode is clearly

defined as it is a uni - modal case.

DISCRETE SERIES:

A Frequency

SERIES

X F

1 2

2 8

3 11

4 18

5 9

6 7

Highest frequency is 18.

19

So, the Mode is 4.

CONTINUOUS SERIES

Problem:

Calculate mode.

f: 1 3 10 6 11 9 1

𝑓1 = 11 and modal-class is 2o-25 so l=20, i=5

behind 𝑓1 is 𝑓0 i.e.,

𝑓0 = 6

next to 𝑓1 is 𝑓2 i.e.,

𝑓2 = 9

𝑓 1− 𝑓 2

Z= l+ 2𝑓 ×𝑖

1− 𝑓 2 −𝑓0

11−6

Z= 20+ 2 ×5

11 −6−9

Z=23.5

f: 1 3 10 6 10 9 1

X 𝑓1 𝑓2 𝑓3 𝑓4 𝑓5 𝑓6

0-5 1 4 13

5-10 3 13 19

10-15 10 16 26

15-20 6 16 25

20-25 10 19 20

25-30 9 10

30-35 1

20

ANALYSIS TABLE:

𝑓1

- - 1 - 1 - -

𝑓2

- - - - 1 1 -

𝑓3

- - - 1 1 - -

𝑓4

- - - 1 1 1 -

𝑓5

- - - - 1 1 1

𝑓6

- - 1 1 1 - -

0 0 2 3 6 3 1

The highest value is 6, therefore modal-class is 2o-25.

𝑓 1− 𝑓 2

Z= l+ 2𝑓 ×𝑖

1− 𝑓 2 −𝑓0

10−6

Z= 20+ 2 ×5

10 −6−9

Z=24

Problem

From the following data find out the missing frequency if the median is

50.

Frequency: 2 8 6 - 15 10

Sol:

C.I f cf

10-20 2 2

20-30 8 10

30-40 6 16

40-50 A 16+A

50-60 15 31+A

21

60-70 10 41+A

41+A

Me= 50

CI is 50-60

Me= l+i/f[n/2-m]

𝟐

-(16+A)]

2

)

]

0= 5[9-A]

A=9

Problem

Class intervals: 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 total:229

Frequency: 12 30 - 65 - 25 18

Sol:

CI f cf

10-20 12 12

20-30 30 42

30-40 A 42+A

22

40-50 65 107+A

60-70 25 211

70-80 18 229

Total 229

12+30+A+65+B+25+18=229

A+B+150=229

A+B=229-150

A+B=79

B=79-A

Me=46

Me= l+i/f[n/2+m]

Me= 40+10/65[299/2+(42+A)]

A=33.5

B=79-33.5

B=45.5

Problem

From the following data find out the missing frequency when its

arithmetic mean is 25.

Frequency: 5 - 15 - 5 45

Sol:

CI x f fx

23

0-10 5 5 15

10-20 15 A 15A

20-30 25 15 375

40-50 45 5 225

∑𝒇𝒙

𝐱= 𝒏 Given 𝐱 = 𝟐𝟓

1325−20A

𝟐𝟓 = 𝟒𝟓

A=10 B=20-A=20-10

B=10

24

3: MEASURES OF DISPERSION

Measures of Dispersion are the averages of second order. They are based on averages of

deviations of the values obtained from central tendencies. The average of second order is an

average of difference of all items of the series from an average of those items.

1. Averages of first order. 1. Averages of second order.

2. Do not throw light on the formation 2. Throw light on the formation of

of series. series/distribution.

3. Do not give detailed features of 3. Give detailed characteristics of

observations. observations.

4. Do not establish relationship with the 4. Establish relationship with the

items. individual items.

5. Do not reveal entire picture of the 5. Reveal entire picture of the

distribution. distribution.

ii. To decide the consistency of performance

iii. To reveal the degree of uniformity in the series.

1. Range

2. Quartile Deviation

3. Mean Deviations

4. Standard Deviation.

RANGE:

Range represents the difference between the values of the extremes, the largest value and

the smallest value.

25

R=L-S

R = Range

L = largest value

S = smallest value

𝐿+𝑆

Merits of Range:

2. It is used in statistical quality control.

3. It is useful in studying the variations in prices of share and stocks.

4. It requires very less calculation.

Demerits of Range:

2. It is not suitable for mathematical treatments.

3. It is very sensitive to fluctuations in the sampling size.

Problem:

Compute the range and co-efficient of range of the series and state which one is more

dispersed and which one is more uniform.

1 13 14 15 16 17 (mean=15)

2 9 12 15 18 21 (mean=15)

“Central tendency is same but formation differs”.

SERIES 1

R=L–S

R = 17 - 13

R=4

𝐿+𝑆

= 17 −13

17 +13

= 0.133

26

SERIES 2

R=L–S

R = 21 – 9

R = 12

𝐿+𝑆

= 21 −9

21 +9

= 0.4

Conclusion :

QUARTILE DEVIATION

Quartile deviation is the measures of dispersion based on the upper quartile 𝑄3 and lower

quartile 𝑄1 .

2. It is not affected by extreme values of variable as it is concerned with the central

half of the portion of the distribution.

3. It is not affected by open end class intervals.

1. It ignores the portions below the lower quartile and upper quartile.

2. It is not capable of further mathematical treatment.

3. It is greatly affected by the fluctuations in the sampling

Problem:

Compute Q.D and its Co-efficient for the following data.

Value: 10 20 30 40 50 60.

Frequency: 28 36 24 32 40 16

27

Values Frequency(f) Cumulative

frequency(c.f)

10 28 28

20 36 64

30 24 88

40 32 120

50 40 160

60 16 176

176

𝒏+𝟏 𝒕𝒉

𝑸𝟏 𝒊s the size of( ) item.

𝟒

So, 𝑄1 = 20

𝟑(𝒏+𝟏) 𝒕𝒉

𝑸𝟑 is the size of( ) item.

𝟒

3(176+1) 𝑡ℎ

n = 176. → ( ) item= 132.75.

4

So, 𝑄3 = 50.

Q.D = 𝑄 3−2 𝑄 1

50 −20

= 2

Q.D = 15.

Co-efficient of Q.D = 𝑄𝑄 33 −+ 𝑄𝑄 11 .

MEAN DEVIATION

It is the average amount of difference of the items in a distribution from either the mean or

median or mode ignoring the signs of the deviation.

INDIVIDUAL OBSERVATION:

∑d

δ= 𝑛

𝛿 𝛿 𝛿

Coefficient of δ = 𝑀 or or

𝑒 z 𝑋

28

DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS SERIES

δ = ∑𝑓𝑑

𝑛

𝛿 𝛿 𝛿

Coefficient of δ = 𝑀 or or

𝑒 z 𝑋

Question: From the following variable find the mean deviation and coefficient of mean

deviation from the mean:

X: 68 49 32 21 54 38 59 66 41

Solution: Arrange the data in an ascending order to have the short cut method applicable:

𝑥=∑x/n=428/9=47.56

X (x-𝑥)

21 26.56

32 15.56

38 9.56

41 6.56

49 1.44

54 6.44

59 11.44

66 18.44

69 20.44

∑x=428 ∑d=116.44

∑𝑑

𝛿=

𝑛

=116.44/9= 12.937

Coefficient of δ=δ/𝑥

=12.9378/47.56

=0.272

Question: Following are runs scored by the batsmen in different innings of cricket tests.

Runs: 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

No of batsmen 6 19 40 23 65 83 55 20 9

Compute mean deviation from mode and its coefficient

29

Solution: Computation of mean deviation:

X f (x-z)=d fd

20 6 100 600

40 19 80 1520

60 40 60 2400

80 23 40 920

100 65 20 1300

120 83 0 0

140 55 20 1100

160 20 40 800

180 9 60 540

n=320 ∑fd=9180

Z=120

δ=∑fd/n=9180/320=28.69

Coefficient of δ

=δ/z=28.69/120=0.239

Problem: Calculate mean deviation from mean from the following data.

f : 8 3 11 14 5 7 2

C.I Frequency X d = x -𝑋 fd fx

(f) Mid

point

48-56 8 52 21.44 171.52 416

543.36

30

δ = ∑𝑓𝑑

𝑛

= 543.36/50 = 10.8672

𝛿

Coefficient of δ = 𝑋

= 10.8672/73.44

= 0.14797

problem:

Calculate mean deviation from median and also find its co-efficient.

Value: 10 20 30 40 50 60.

Frequency: 28 36 24 32 40 16

X f Cumulative d = X- fx fd

frequency(c.f) 𝑀𝑒

10 28 28 30 280 840

20 36 64 20 720 720

30 24 88 10 720 240

40 32 120 0 1280 0

60 16 176 20 960 320

176 5960 ∑𝑓𝑑

=2520

𝑛+1 𝑡ℎ

𝑀𝑒 is the size of( ) item.

2

176+1

n=176 = =88.5

2

Therefore, 𝑀𝑒 is 40

δ = ∑𝑓𝑑

𝑛

31

= 2520/176

δ = 14.3181

𝛿

Coefficient of δ = .

𝑀𝑒

= 14.3181/40

= 0.35795

Problem:

X = 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

f = 6 19 40 23 65 83 55 20 9

X F d=X-Z Fd

20 6 100 600

40 19 80 1520

60 40 60 2400

83

100 65 20 1300 The value of X against 83 is 120

δ = ∑𝑓𝑑

𝑛

140 55 20 1100

= 9180/320

160 20 40 800

δ = 28.687.

180 9 60 540 𝛿

Coefficient of δ = Z .

∑fd=9180 = 28.687/120

= 0.2390

32

Merits of Mean Deviation:

1. It is rigidly defined and easy to compute and understand.

2. It takes all items into consideration and gives weight to deviation according to

their size.

3. It is less affected by extreme values of variable.

4. It removes all the irregularities by obtaining deviations and provides a correct

measure.

1. It does not lend itself readily to algebraic treatment.

2. It ignores the negative deviation and treats them as positive which is not justified

mathematically.

3. It is not a satisfactory measure, when deviations are taken from the mode.

4. It is rarely used in social sciences.

5. It is not suitable when the class intervals are open end.

STANDARD DEVIATION AND CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION.

It is defined as the positive square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of the

deviation of the given observation from their arithmetic mean.

1. Individual observation.

1. Individual observation

σ = ∑d2 /n ; where d= X- 𝑿

2. Discrete and continuous series.

33

σ = ∑fd2 /n where d= X- 𝑿

Problem:

Calculate S.D for the following deviation and also find co-efficient of variation.

Tests: 0 1 2 3 4

Marks: 17 9 6 5 3

X f Fx A=2 d2 fd fd2

d =X-A

0 17 0 -2 4

-34 68

1 9 9 -1 1

-9 9

2 6 12 0 0

0 0

3 5 15 1 1

1 5

4 3 12 2 4

6 12

40 ∑𝑓𝑑 =- ∑fd2 =94

32

σ= ∑fd2 /𝑛– (∑𝑓𝑑/𝑛)2

σ= 94/40– (−32/40)2

= 1.71

= 1.30

S.D = 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆.

Problem:

The numbers of employees, wages per employees for two factories are given below.

In which factory there is greater variance in the distribution of wages per employee and

which factory pays more wages.

Factory X Factory Y

No of employees 50 100

Average wages 60 42

per employee per

month

Variance wages 16 64

per employee

per month.

34

FACTORY X FACTORY Y

n = 50 n = 100

𝑋 =60 𝑋 =42

Variance = 16 Variance = 64

S.D= 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆. S.D = 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆.

= 𝟏𝟔 = 𝟔𝟒

= 4 = 8

To find total number of To find total number of

employees employees

∑𝑓𝑥= n ×𝑋 ∑𝑓𝑥= n ×𝑋

= 50×60 = 100×42

= 3000 = 4200

𝜎 𝜎

C.V = 𝑋 × 100 C.V = 𝑋 × 100

= (4/60 × 100 ) = 8/6(42 × 100 )

= 6.66 = 19.04

Conclusion:

Question: Find which of the Batsman is more consistent in scoring. Would you also

accept him as a better run getter? Why?

Batsman

A: 5 7 16 27 39 53 56 61 80 101 105

B: 0 4 16 21 41 43 57 78 83 90 95

35

Solution:

x-𝒙 𝒅𝟐 y y-𝒚 𝒅2

x Batsman A (d) Batsman B(d)

17 -43 1849 4 -44 1726

16 -34 1156 16 -32 1024

27 -23 529 21 -27 729

39 -11 121 41 -7 49

53 +3 9 43 -5 25

56 +6 36 57 9 81

61 11 121 78 30 900

80 30 900 83 35 1225

101 51 2601 90 42 1764

105 55 3025 98 47 2209

550 12372 528 12,246

𝑥=50 ∑d2 𝑦=48 ∑d𝑥 2

= 33.5368/50*100 =33.3657/48*100

= 67.0736% = 69.5119 %

ii. Of course yes „A‟ is a better run getter also as his average is more

2. It can be smoothly handled algebraically.

3. It is well defined and definite measure of dispersion.

4. It is great importance, when we are making comparison between variability of two

series.

2. It gives more weight to extreme values as the deviations are squared.

3. It is not useful in economic studies.

36

4. CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Correlation

values of two or more variables of the same phenomenon or individual series. It indicates the

strength of the relationship.

Regression

“Regression” means returning or stepping back to the average value. With the help of values

of one variable (independent) we can establish most likely values of other variable (dependent).

On the basis of two available correlated variables, we can forecast the future data or events or

values.

In statistics the term “Regression” means simply the “Average Relationship”. We can predict

or estimate the values of dependent variable from the given related values of independent

variable with the help of a Regression Technique.

Regression Analysis

“Regression Analysis” refers to the methods by which estimates are made about the values of

a dependent variable from the values of an independent variable. It is a technique of predicting

the unknown values on the basis of the “average relationship”.

Correlation Regression

two variables. the two variables and estimates

the values.

covariation. covariation.

37

4. It is merely a tool of ascertaining 4. It is also a tool of studying cause

the degree of relationship. and effect of relationship.

chance and it may not have and it has practical relevance.

practical relevance.

independent and dependent independent and dependent

variables. variables.

relationship. with cause and effect.

relationship with the two

equations of lines.

Types of Correlation

Correlation is classified, on the basis of its nature, into the following ways:

If the values of the two variables deviate in the same direction, correlation is said to be „positive‟

or „direct‟. It means, the increase in the values of one variable results, on an average, in a

corresponding increase in the values of other variable and vice versa.

If the values of the two variables deviate in the opposite direction, correlation is said to be

„negative‟ or „indirect‟. It means, the increase in the values of one variable results, on an average,

in a corresponding decrease in the values of other variable and vice versa.

When one variable is independent and the other variable is dependent on the former, it is the case

of a „partial correlation‟.

When only two variables are studied, it is called a „simple correlation‟. It means the study

involves only two variables, which are changing either in the same or opposite direction.

38

Probable Error

“Probable Error” is a difference resulting due to taking samples from the mass of population.

𝟏−𝒓𝟐

P.E. = Probable factor × Standard error = 0.6745

𝒏

𝐝′ 𝐱 (𝐝′ 𝐲)

𝐝′ 𝐱𝐝′ 𝐲 −

𝐫= 𝐧

(𝐝′𝐱)𝟐 𝟐

𝐝′ 𝐱 𝟐 − 𝐝 ′ 𝐲 𝟐 − (𝐝′𝐲)

𝐧 𝐧

1. Following are the results of B.Com. Examination in a college. Compute coefficient of correlation

between age and success in the examination and interpret the result.

Age of Candidates: 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26

Candidates Appeared: 120 100 70 40 10 5

Successful Candidates: 72 55 35 18 4 1

Solution: Let us obtain the Mid-value of age group and convert the successful candidates into

percentages.

(C.I) x d‟x d‟y d‟y2 d‟xd‟y

22-23 22.5 -1 1 50 0 0 0

23-24 23.5 0 0 45 -5 25 0

d‟xd‟y=1550

39

𝐝′ 𝐱 (𝐝′ 𝐲)

𝐝′ 𝐱𝐝′ 𝐲 −

𝐫= 𝐧

(𝐝′𝐱) 𝟐 𝟐

𝐝′ 𝐱 𝟐 − 𝐝 ′ 𝐲 𝟐 − (𝐝′𝐲)

𝐧 𝐧

−𝟑 −𝟔

−𝟐𝟐 −

= 𝟔

−𝟑 𝟐 −𝟔 𝟐

𝟏𝟗 − 𝟒𝟔 −

𝟔 𝟔

−𝟐𝟓 −𝟐. 𝟓

= =

𝟒. 𝟏𝟖𝟑𝟑 × 𝟔. 𝟑𝟐𝟒𝟓 𝟐𝟔. 𝟒𝟓𝟕

r= -0.94492

Comment on the results through the probable error.

X: 06 08 12 15 18 20 24 28 31

Y: 10 12 15 15 18 25 22 26 28

Sol:

12 15 -6 36 -4 16 +24

15 15 -3 09 -4 16 +12

18 18 0 00 -1 01 00

20 25 +2 04 +6 36 +12

24 22 +6 36 +3 09 +18

40

𝐝𝐱𝐝𝐲

𝐫=

𝐝𝐱 𝟐 𝐝𝐲 𝟐

𝟒𝟑𝟏

𝐫=

𝟓𝟗𝟖 𝟑𝟑𝟖

𝟒𝟑𝟏

𝐫=

(𝟐𝟒. 𝟒𝟓) (𝟏𝟖. 𝟑𝟖)

𝟒𝟑𝟏

𝐫=

𝟒𝟒𝟗. 𝟑𝟗

R= 0.959

X: 60 34 40 50 45 41 22 43 42 66 64 46

Y: 75 32 35 40 45 33 12 30 36 72 41 57

Solution: Values are given Ranks are to be assigned

X y Rx Ry d d2

60 75 3 1 +2 4

34 32 11 10 +1 1

40 35 10 8 +2 4

50 40 4 6 -2 4

45 45 6 4 +2 4

41 33 9 9 0 0

22 12 12 12 0 0

43 30 7 11 -4 16

42 36 8 7 +1 1

66 72 1 2 -1 1

64 41 2 5 -3 9

46 57 5 3 +2 4

d=0 d2=48

41

6d 2

rs = 1-

n 3 −n

6×48

= 1-

12 3 −1

6×48

= 1-

123 −12

288

= 1-

1716

= 1 - 0.16783

rs = +0.83217

X: 60 15 20 28 12 40 80 20

Y: 10 40 30 50 30 20 60 30

X Rx Y Ry d= Rx-Ry d2

60 2 10 8 -6 36

15 7 40 3 4 16

20 5.5 30 5 0.5 0.25

28 4 50 2 2 4

12 8 30 5 3 9

40 3 20 7 -4 16

80 1 60 1 0 0

20 5.5 30 5 0.5 0.25

d2 = 81.5

In ‘X’ series 5th and 6th ranks are tied(2 ranks equal m=2)

So 5+6/2 = 5.5

In ‘Y’ series 4th, 5th and 6th ranks are tied(3 ranks equal m=3)

So 4+5+6/2 = 5

1 1

𝟔[d 2 + m 3 −m + m 3 −m ]

rs = 𝟏 − 12 12

where m= no. of ranks equal

n 3 −n

1 1

𝟔[81.5+ 23 −2 + 33 −3 ]

rs = 𝟏 − 12

83 −8

12

42

1 1

𝟔[𝟖𝟏.𝟓+ 6 + 24 ]

rs = 𝟏 − 12 12

504

1

𝟔[81.5+ +2]

rs = 𝟏 − 2

504

𝟔[81.5+2.5]

rs = 𝟏 − 504

𝟓𝟎𝟒

rs = 𝟏 − 504

rs = 𝟎

Ages of Husbands: 25 28 30 32 35 36 38 39 42 55

Ages of Wives: 20 26 29 30 25 18 26 35 35 46

Obtain the two regression equations and determine likely age of husband for the age of wife

25 years.

Solution:

Husband‟s Wives (X-X) (Y-y ) x2 y2

xy

Ages(X) Age(Y) x y

25 20 -11 -9 121 81

99

28 26 -8 -3 64 9

24

30 29 -6 0 36 0

0

32 30 -4 +1 16 1

-4

35 25 -1 -4 1 16

+4

36 18 0 -11 0 121

0

38 26 2 -3 4 9

-6

39 35 3 +6 9 36

+18

42 35 6 +6 36 36

+36

+323

43

∑𝑥 360 ∑𝑦 290

𝑋= = = 36 𝑌= = = 29

𝑛 10 𝑛 10

y on x x on y

∑ 𝑥𝑦 ∑ 𝑥𝑦

𝑌−𝑌 =∑ 𝑋−𝑋 𝑋−𝑋 =∑ 𝑌−𝑌

𝑥2 𝑥2

494 494

(Y−29) = (X−36) (X−36) = (Y−29)

648 598

(Y−29) = 0.7624 (X−36) (Y−36) = 0.8261 (Y−29)

Y= 0.7624X−27.4464+29 X= 0.8261Y−23.9569+36

Y= 0.7624X +1.5536 X= 0.8261Y+12.0431

X=0.8261(25)+12.0431 8 months 12 days

X=20.6525+12.0431

X=32.6956

4. You are given below the information about advertising and sales of a company:

Advertising expenses(x) Sales(y)

(Rs in lakhs) (Rs in lakhs)

Mean 10 90

Variance 9 144

Correlation Coefficient 0.8

a) Calculate the two regression lines.

b) Find the likely sales when advertising expenses are Rs 15 and Rs 20.

c) What should be the advertising expenses when the company wants to attain a sales target of Rs 140 lakhs

and Rs 190 lakhs.

Solution:

a) Calculation of Two Regression Lines

𝜎𝑥 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 9 = 3, 𝜎𝑦 = 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 144 = 12

Y on x x on y

y=bx x=by

𝑌 − 𝑌 = 𝑏𝑦𝑥 𝑋 − 𝑋 𝑋 − 𝑋 = 𝑏𝑥𝑦 𝑌 − 𝑌

𝜎𝑦 𝜎𝑥

𝑌 − 90 = 𝑟 𝑋 − 10 𝑋 − 10 = 𝑟 𝑌 − 90

𝜎𝑥 𝜎𝑦

12 3

𝑌 − 90 = 0.8 𝑋 − 10 𝑋 − 10 = 0.8 𝑌 − 90

3 12

44

Y – 90 = 3.2 (X − 10) X – 10 = 0.2 (Y − 90)

Y −90 = 3.2X −32 X −10 = 0.2Y −18

Y=3.2X −32+90 X=0.2Y −18+10

Y=3.2X+58 X=0.2Y−8

Rs 15 lakhs, sales would be Rs 140, Advt.exp. would be

Y=3.2(15)+58=48+58 x=0.2(140)-8=28-8

Sales=Rs 106 lakhs Advt.exp.=Rs 20 lakhs

Rs 20 lakhs, sales would be, Rs 190, Advt.exp would be

y=3.2(20)+58 x=0.2(190)-8

y=64+58 x=38-8

Sales= Rs 122 lakhs Advt.exp. Rs 30 lakhs.

45

5: INDEX NUMBER

According to A.M Tuttle „Index number‟ is a single ratio which measures the

combine change of several variables between two different times, places, (or) situations.

It can also be defined as a quantity which by reference to a base period shows variations or

changes in the magnitude over a period of time.

Purpose:

i. To measure and compare changes in a variable or set of variables with

some base year.

ii. To measure purchasing power of money which help in finding out real

wages of people

iii. To provide guidelines to policymaking in business field.

Importance:

Index numbers are economic barometers as they indicate the pulses of economy and

tendencies in price fluctuations .They also measure the pressure of economic activities of the

country.

Base year:

Base year is a year with which index number are to be compared (or) to which they have to

be refered. It should be a period which is having normal (or) stable economic activities.

Current year

It refers to the year for which comparison is done.

METHODS OF CONSTRUCTING INDEX NUMBER.

INDEX NUMBER

UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED

(PRICE AND

(PRICE) QUALITY)

AGGREGATIVE OF PRICE AGGREGATIVE OF PRICE

METHOD RELATIVE METHOD RELATIVE

METHOD METHOD

NOTATIONS:

𝑃0 = Base year prices.

46

𝑃1 = Current year prices.

𝑃01 = Price index number for current year with reference to the base year.

𝑞01 = Quantity index number for the current year with reference to the base year.

𝑉01 = Value index number for the current year with reference to the base year.

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝 1

∑𝑝 0

×100

Where;

∑𝑝0 = Total of base year prices.

𝑃01 = Price index number.

Problem:

Calculate price index number by Simple aggregative method.

Items A B C D E

Price in 6 10 2 12 5

2001(𝑝0 )

Price in 8 15 4 8 5

2003(𝑝1 )

Solution:

A 6 8

B 10 15

C 2 4

D 12 8

E 5 5

∑𝑝0 = 35 ∑𝑝1 = 40

∑𝑝

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝1 ×100

0

40

= 35 ×100

= 114.28.

47

Conclusion:

This means during the year 2003 the prices have rise up by 14.28% on an average

compared to the prices in the year 2001.

∑𝐼

𝑃01 = 𝑛 .

Where;

𝑝

I = 𝑝1 ×100

0

I= Price relative.

n = number of commodities.

Problem:

Calculate index number by average of price relatives method.

Items A B C D E

Price in 6 10 2 12 5

2001(𝑝0 )

Price in 8 15 4 8 5

2003(𝑝1 )

Solution:

I = 𝑝1 ×100

0

A 6 8 133.3

B 10 15 150

C 2 4 200

D 12 8 66.67

E 5 5 100

∑𝐼= 650

𝑃01 = ∑𝐼

𝑛

n=5

= 650/5= 130

48

WEIGHTED INDEX NUMBER:

1. Laspeyre‟s method:

In this method the base year quantity are taken as weights.

∑𝑝 𝑞

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝1 𝑞0 × 100

0 0

2 Paasche‟s method:

∑𝑝 𝑞0 1

In this method the arithmetic mean of the quantities of base year and current year

quantities are taken as weights.

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0 +∑𝑝 0 𝑞 1

× 100

4 Fisher‟s method:

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 0 ∑𝑝 1 𝑞 1

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

× ×100

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 1

The formula should work both ways, base year to current year and current year to base

year, resulting into the same ratio.

∑𝑝1 𝑞0 ∑𝑝1 𝑞1

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝0 𝑞0

× ∑𝑝0 𝑞1

∑𝑝0 𝑞1 ∑𝑝0 𝑞0

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝1 𝑞1

× ∑𝑝1 𝑞0

𝑃01 × 𝑃01 = 1.

49

Factor reversal test:

The formula should true value ratio, if the price index number multiplied by quantity index

number.

∑𝑝1 𝑞0 ∑𝑝 𝑞

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝0 𝑞0

× ∑𝑝1𝑞1

0 1

∑𝑞 1 𝑝 0 ∑𝑞 1 𝑝 1

𝑄01 = ∑𝑞 0 𝑝 0

×

∑𝑞 0 𝑝 1

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 1

𝑉01 =

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

Problem:

Construct the Laspeyre‟s, Paasche‟s, Marshall- Edge worth and Index number for the

following data and prove that it satisfies both TRT and FRT.

year Quantity year year

price price Quantity

A 10 80 12 90

B 14 90 16 80

C 15 100 3 110

D 18 80 17 100

Solution:

Comm 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑝1 𝑞0 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑝1 𝑞1 𝑝0 𝑞1

odities

A 10 80 12 90 960 800 1080 900

B 14 90 16 80 1440 1260 1280 1120

C 15 100 3 110 1300 1500 1500 1650

D 18 80 17 100 1360 1440 1440 1800

5060 5000 5490 5470

50

1.Fisher‟s method:

∑𝑝1 𝑞0 ∑𝑝 𝑞

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝0 𝑞0

× ∑𝑝1𝑞1×100

0 1

5060 5490

𝑃01 = × 5470 × 100

5000

= 100.78

2.Laspeyre‟s method:

∑𝑝 𝑞

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝 1 𝑞 0 × 100

0 0

5060

= ×100

5000

= 101.2

3. Paasche‟s method

𝑃01 = ∑𝑝 1 𝑞 1 × 100

∑𝑝 𝑞

0 1

5490

×100

5470

= 100.36

4. Marshall- Edge worth :

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0 +∑𝑝 0 𝑞 1

=5060 +5490

5000 +5470

× 100

=1.0076

5.Time reversal test:

𝑃01 × 𝑃01 = 1.

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 0 ∑𝑝 𝑞 ∑𝑝 0 𝑞 1 ∑𝑝 𝑞

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

× ∑𝑝1 𝑞 1 × ∑𝑝 1 𝑞 1

× ∑𝑝0 𝑞 0

0 1 1 0

5000

× 5470 × 5490

× 5060

5060

5000

× 5490

5470

× 5470

5490

× 5000

5060

= 1

51

6.Factor reversal test:

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 0

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

× ∑𝑝 1𝑞1

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 1

× ∑𝑞 1 𝑝 0

∑𝑞 0 𝑝 0

× ∑𝑞 1𝑝 1

∑𝑞 0 𝑝 1

5000

× 5470 × 5000

× 5060

5000

× 5470 × 5000 × 5060

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 1

= 5490/5000 = = 𝑉01

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

It is designed to study the effect of changes in price on the working class families or

consumers.

Methods of computation:

∑𝑝 1 𝑞 0

Aggregate Expenditure Method….𝑃01 = × 100

∑𝑝 0 𝑞 0

∑IW

Family Budget Method………….. 𝑃01 = ∑W

× 100

They are useful in wage negotiations and settlements.

They are helpful to the government in forming wage policy, income policy, price

policy, rent control etc.

They are used for measuring the purchasing power of money and real wages or

income.

Used in analyzing the markets for particular type of goods and services.

Question: A textile worker earns Rs. 350 per month . The cost of living indeex

for that particular month is known as 136. Using the following data finid the

amounts spend by him on house rent and clothing.

Expenditure 140 ? ? 56 63

Group Index 180 150 100 110 80

52

Solution: Assume the amounts spend on clothing and house rent as A & B

respectively. The total wages spent will also be assumed as his earnings. Thus we can

have following equations:

140+A+B+56+63=350

A+B=91…………………………………………… (i)

Computation of cost of living Index

Group Expenditure(W) I IW

Food 140 180 25,200

Clothing A 150 (150A)

House rent B 100 (100B)

Fuel 56 110 6160

Miscellaneous 63 80 5040

∑W=350 ∑IW=36400+150A+100B

∑𝐈𝐖

C.L.I= ∑𝐖

× 100

136=36400+150A+100B/350

150A+100B=11,200………………………….. (ii)

Solving (i) & (ii) we get the value of A & B AS

A=42 & B=49 ; so the worker has spent Rs 42 on clothing and Rs 49 on House rent

53

6. TIME SERIES

Time series is a series of numerical data which have been recorded at different

intervals of time. It is a record of changes in variables over a period of time.

The values of variables tend to increase or decrease over a period of 8-10

years. Though there are upward and downward changes in the trend, we find

in general only one trend over a period of time.

2) SEASONAL VARIATION:

The values of variables change in a regular, periodic, and rhythmic order

according to season covering a period of time not exceeding 12 months.

Ex: Weather conditions, climatic changes, rainfalls and sunlight.

3) CYCLIC VARIATION:

The values of variables change in a rhythmic pattern over a period of time

from 2 to 6 years extending even up to8 years. There are oscillatory

movements in the economic activities, which are complex, less regular and

less uniform. They are the outcomes of the business cycles.

Boom period, Recession, Depression and recovery and again Boom period.

4) RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS:

The values of variables change suddenly or unexpectedly. The influencing

factors are unpredictable. They are generally mixed up with the seasonal and

cyclic fluctuations.

Ex: Earthquakes, floods, storms.

1) Moving average method.

2) Least square method.

1) Using the 3 yearly moving average determine the trend value and plot the

graph for the actual and trend values.

Year: 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Production: 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 26

Year production 3 year 3 year year

moving moving

total average

1995 21 - - -

1996 22 66 66/3=22 1996

1997 23 69 69/3=23 1997

1998 24 72 72/3=26 1998

1999 25 75 75/3=25 1999

2000 26 78 78/3=26 2000

2001 27 79 79/3=26.33 2001

2002 26 - - -

54

2. Using the 4 yearly moving average determine the trend value and plot the graph for the

actual and trend values.

Production: 75 62 76 78 94 84 96

4 year moving moving

total average

1994 75

62

1995 76

291 291/4=72.75

78

1996 75.125 96

94

310 310/4=77.5

1997 84 80.25 97

96 332 332/4=83

1998 85.5 98

352 352/4=88

1999

2000

55

2) Using 5 yearly moving average determine the trend values and plot the graph.

Year: 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Sales: 12 14 18 24 22 20 16 25 26 34

31

moving moving

total average

1986 12 - - -

1987 14 - - -

1988 18 90 90/5=18 1988

1989 24 98 98/5=19.6 1989

1990 22 100 100/5=20 1990

1991 20 107 107/5=21.4 1991

1992 16 109 109/5=21.8 1992

1993 25 121 121/5=24.2 1993

1994 26 132 132/5=26.4 1994

1995 34 - - -

1996 31 - - -

a =∑y/n

b = ∑xy/∑𝒙𝟐

𝒀𝒄=𝒂+𝒃𝒙

Sales: 20 23 22 25 26 29 30

1997 23 -2 4 -46 21.72

1998 22 -1 1 -22 23.36

1999 25 0 0 0 25

2000 26 1 1 26 26.64

2001 29 2 4 58 28.28

2002 30 3 9 90 29.92

56

a =∑y/n b = ∑xy/∑𝒙𝟐 𝒀𝒄=𝒂+𝒃𝒙

1.642

=25 =36.48

Reference Book:

Quantitative Analysis for Business Decision by C.M Chikkodi & B.G Satyaprasad

57

PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTION PAPERS:-

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

## Molto più che documenti.

Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori.

Annulla in qualsiasi momento.