social sciences management engineering

Systems
Engineering
 d y
an lit ry re
gy b i
v e ca
li
er ina de lth
en ta
s ea
Su
h

ESD research domains

s
se es
ri d al r
rp de ic tu
te en it uc
en ext Cr tr
as
fr
In
 p. 3

“Imagine the excitement

of working at the frontiers
p. 6

of macroscopic engineering—
the domain of larger and
larger and more and
pp. 6, 13

more complex systems for

pp. 10, 18 pp. 10, 17, 19, 24, 37

energy, the environment,

pp. 11, 23

communications, health
pp. 9, 27, 30

care, manufacturing, and

pp. 9, 21, 31, 34

logistics.”
Charles Vest, President,
National Academy of Engineering

Engineering
Systems Division

02 Challenges
12 Research
24 Education
32 Global Reach
38 ESD 2020
 02 :: 03
MIT Engineering Systems Division
challenges

“What MIT is good for: a dose

of reality-based hope that we
can help address in a real way
the most serious of the world’s
great challenges.”
Susan Hockfield, President,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Highways, electrification, computers, fiber optics,
the Internet, and health technologies are listed by
the National Academy of Engineering as among the
greatest achievements of the 20th century. Engineering
advances produce better medicines, provide heat and
air conditioning, enhance food production, supply a
bounty of affordable products on store shelves, and
speed emergency communications—improving the lives
of billions of people throughout the world.

These benefits, however, were

not delivered by the technological
achievements alone, but rather by
complex, intertwined engineering
systems—systems that integrate
technology, people, and services.
Many of the new challenges involving these big,
“messy” systems stem from the interactions of people,
organizations, and technology—leading to emergent
properties over time. Strains of growth materialize at
the nexus of changing social norms, shifting regulations,
and new enterprise architectures. Breakdowns make
the headlines, pointing to the enormity of the analytical,
management, and design challenges: “Blackouts Cause
North America Chaos” (BBC, 2003); “As More Toys Are
Recalled, Trail Ends in China” (The New York Times,
2007); “Nine Thought Dead as Minneapolis Bridge
Collapses” (MSNBC, 2007), “Report Finds a Heavy Toll
from Medication Errors” (The New York Times, 2006).

Tackling engineering systems challenges requires an

engineering problem-solving mind-set, as well as new
framing and modeling methodologies—what we call
engineering systems approaches. These approaches
combine perspectives from engineering, management,
and social sciences to explore the fundamental
structures underlying engineering systems and
to frame and model problems so that they can be
rigorously addressed.

The simplicity of the single

windmill in Zaragoza, Spain,
belies the complexity of
achieving energy security—one
of the four problem domains
addressed by ESD researchers.
Image courtesy of Acciona
04 :: 05 MIT Engineering Systems Division challenges Vision, mission, values
ESD Vision
The fundamental principles and properties of
engineering systems—the complex socio-technical
constructs that are the foundation of modern
society—are well-understood, so that these systems
can be modeled, designed, and managed effectively.

ESD Mission
To solve previously intractable engineering systems
problems by integrating approaches based on
engineering, management, and social sciences, using
new framing and modeling methodologies.

To facilitate the beneficial application of engineering

systems principles and properties by expanding the
set of problems addressed by engineers.

To position our graduates as tomorrow’s system

thinkers and leaders in tackling society’s challenges.

ESD Values
We are committed to scholarship that addresses
significant global problems by investigating the
many ways in which engineering systems behave and
interact with each other.

We develop and evaluate system-level solutions that
are sustainable in terms of social equity, economic
development, and environmental impact.

We value and accept intellectual risk. This means

tackling issues that appear, at least in part, to be non-
quantifiable or vague.

We have deep respect for all the disciplines we bring

together and build upon, including engineering, social
sciences, and management.

The MIT Engineering Systems Division

works with faculty across the Institute—in
engineering, management, and the social
sciences—to collaborate on research
that takes a holistic approach to tackling
complex problems.
Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz
 and
06 :: 07
What is engineering systems?
MIT Engineering Systems Division
1. A class of
systems
 ngineering systems are characterized by a
E
high degree of technical complexity, social
challenges
intricacy, and elaborate processes, aimed at
fulfilling important functions in society.
E
 SD focuses on the
What is engineering systems?
following domains:
Critical Infrastructures—including the electrical
grid from power generation to distribution to
consumers to pricing and regulation, as well
as transportation, information, defense and
communications systems, taking into account all
stakeholders.
Extended Enterprises—including the design,
manufacture, and distribution of products and
services; accounting for trade regulations,
customs, and relationships among suppliers,
manufacturers, retailers, and carriers; and
managing the global flows of goods, information,
money, and knowledge.
Energy and Sustainability—including issues of
energy production, distribution, and consumption;
material resource availability and reuse; the
balance between the environment and economic
development; as well as the related energy and
environmental policies.
HealthCare Delivery—encompassing the delivery
of vital services for prevention, diagnosis, and
treatment of diseases and maintaining quality of
life for all segments of the population.
2. An emerging field
of research and
education
 ngineering systems is an emerging field of
E
scholarship that seeks solutions to important,
multifaceted socio-technical problems.1
 pplying approaches from engineering, the social
A
sciences, and management, engineering systems
scholarship explores multiple stakeholder
perspectives. Engineering systems research
develops and employs multiple methodologies,
and balances quantitative and qualitative
arguments while maintaining scientific rigor.
ESD approaches include:
The Interface of Humans and Technology—
examining the ways in which human attitudes
and behaviors affect the successful use of
technologies, as well as design methodologies that
explicitly account for the human interface.
Uncertainty and Dynamics—including modeling
the sources of uncertainty and dynamics of
complex systems as well as the effects of
uncertainty in each of our domain areas.
Design and Implementation—applying life-cycle
concepts to capture the value and cost flows over
time, as well as analyzing enterprise architectures
and developing change management processes
that are required for successful implementation.
Networks and Flows—representing, analyzing,
and designing systems as interdependent multi-
layered networks with multiple types of flows.
Policy and Standards—taking into account the
role of government policy, industry standards, and
other factors, which traditionally have been taken
as external constraints, but instead are treated as
design variables by ESD researchers.
1
Related to systems engineering, which is an important profession
and practice, engineering systems is a field of scholarship
that includes systems engineering as well as a broader set of
disciplines. Engineering systems has an added focus on social,
environmental, technological, and political contexts.
engineering

domains [ ]

Infrastructures
Sustainability

Health Care
Enterprises
management

Extended
Energy &

Delivery

Critical
Humans &
]

Technology
approaches [

Uncertainty &
Dynamics
social sciences

Design &
Implementation
Networks
& Flows
Policy &
Standards
To assist the reader in
recognizing the various
connections across
ESD, this graphic key
highlights the domains
and approaches relevant
to individual projects.
 08 :: 09
MIT Engineering Systems Division
challenges
Much of the work in critical
infrastructure involves better
management of existing
facilities. Drawing on systems
and control theory, optimization
and economics, Professor
Hamsa Balakrishnan’s research
focuses on the development of
mechanisms to allocate airport
and airspace resources. Her
work accounts for multiple
research DOMAINS
stakeholders (airlines,
passengers, pilots, controllers,
and neighboring communities)
and multiple objectives (minimize
delays and environmental impact,
maximize safety and system-wide
performance). Shown: Planes
at JFK Airport. Most airport
delays in the US originate in the
congested airports of New York
and New Jersey.
©iStockphoto.com/Xavier Marchant
More than 70,000 bridges in the
US are rated as deficient —
one of them is the Longfellow
Bridge leading from Boston
to MIT. Red Line trains were
slowed to 10 mph going over the
bridge, trucks were banned, and
traffic was restricted to a single
lane after federal officials found
inspections lacking.
Image courtesy of Yossi Sheffi
Critical Infrastructures
Improving the effectiveness of national infrastructures, esd authors
such as those providing electric power, transport, and critical
communications, is an important challenge. infrastructures
As the graph below demonstrates, US investment in
infrastructure has not kept up with increasing needs.
In 2005, the American Society of Civil Engineers
estimated that the United States would need to spend
$1.6 trillion over a five-year period to bring its existing
infrastructure up to an acceptable level of service.
Furthermore, infrastructure comprises not only
physical objects such as roads and airports, but also
the complex systems that provide for security, defense,
health, energy, communications, and the functioning
of markets. Herein lies an important research
and education challenge—developing models and
understanding the behavior of this “system of systems”
to better provide the infrastructures society relies on.
US Infrastructure Investment
Percentage of gross domestic product
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
FEDERAL
1.2
Source: Congressional Budget Office
1.0
0.8
STATE & LOCAL
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
But there is an even greater challenge. Over the next 50
years, a billion more people will be demanding modern
services, mainly in the cities of the developing world. The
environmental loads and resource depletion resulting
from developing infrastructures to meet these demands,
along the 20th century model, are unsustainable.
ESD has made a commitment to advancing research
in critical infrastructures precisely because these
problems are both important and challenging. The
facets that distinguish
ESD research in critical
infrastructures include:
cross-domain views;
comparative architecture
and the factors affecting
them; new models that
include both the technical
and social complexities; and
new, large-scale simulation
techniques which allow the
combination of quantitative
and qualitative data.
 Extended Enterprises
Teams designing the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner span
the globe, working around the clock and across multiple
time zones. An Intel chip crosses the Pacific Ocean six
times as it goes from raw material to becoming a Dell
computer component. A T-shirt starts in an Egyptian
cotton field, is manufactured in the Far East, shipped to
Los Angeles for packaging, and is eventually sold at a
Wal-Mart in Pittsburgh.

bringing the 787 together

fixed trailing edge engine nacelles
nagoya, japan chula vista, ca
US wing center fuselage
boeing nagoya, japan Grottaglie, italy
spirit
wing tips
forward fuselage
korea
vought nagoya, japan
ge movable trailing edge
australia
goodrich forward fuselage
tail fin wichita, kansas
canada fredrickson, washington
cargo/access doors
boeing
horizontal stabilizer sweden
messier-dowty
foggia, italy
wing/body fairing
australia landing gear doors
boeing winnipeg, canada
Courtesy of The Boeing Company

japan
europe esd authors
kawasaki main landing gear
messier-dowty wheel well
mitsubishi passenger entry doors engines extended
rolls-royce nagoya, japan
fuji france GE– evendale, ohio enterprises
latecoere rolls-royce– derby, uk
center wing box
aft fuselage
korea alenia nagoya, japan
charleston, s.c. fixed and movable leading edge
kal-asd saab
landing gear tulsa, oklahoma
gloucester, uk

Maritime container traffic in US ports grew by over

300% between 1990 and 2005. The global supply chains
that keep food in supermarket aisles, medical supplies
at hospitals, clothes on store shelves, and parts on
hand for manufacturing, demand global coordination
and controls of mind-boggling complexity. Most of
the supply chain costs, however, are being “baked in”
when product design and engineering decisions are
made. These decisions imply manufacturing locations
and therefore determine procurement and distribution
strategies and operations. Building flexibility into the
product architecture (through modularity and parts
commonality) as well as into operational processes
(through risk pooling and postponement), has become
a crucial component of product design and engineering.
Today’s engineer needs to design products for the
full life cycle, including manufacture, procurement,
distribution, service, upgrade, and disposal.

The most important logistics The complexities of global supply chains, the interaction
innovation enabling international of corporate objectives with trade policies, currency
trade was the adoption of the
standard container more than 50 fluctuations, and distributed product and process
years ago. Today’s enterprises design, present an intricate set of engineering
comprise networks of engineering, challenges that are central to ESD. They involve the
manufacturing, logistics, retail, and
other services, spanning the globe optimization of these global networks under demand
and requiring sophisticated supply and supply uncertainties throughout many regulatory
chain processes. Ports, cargo ships, regimes and cultures.
shipping lanes, human operators,
and information systems form the
backbone of this critical global
infrastructure.
Image courtesy of Alan Deveau,
Airscapes Photography
 10 :: 11

Energy and
MIT Engineering Systems Division

Sustainability
Per capita energy consumption in the developing world
has more than doubled over the last 40 years—and yet
the developed world is still consuming energy five times
faster than that. And the increased consumption is not
limited to energy alone, as shown in the figure below.

As the population and the desire for higher living

standards grow worldwide, demand for energy and
natural resources will outstrip conventional supplies.
As a billion more people strive to improve their living
standards, the challenge lies in doing so without further
challenges

affecting the global climate and depleting scarce

resources.

Alternative fuels, advanced materials, and improved

industrial processes are all heralded as possible
solutions, but the sustainability of each choice
encompasses more than technology. Engineers need
to expand the scope of their design considerations to Acciona Energy, the world’s
incorporate infrastructure requirements, environmental
research DOMAINS

largest developer of wind

considerations, and societal impact. parks, is collaborating with
ESD researchers at the
Zaragoza Logistics Center to
overall us consumption of non-fuel material use systems modeling and
analysis to guide large-
scale energy infrastructure
3k CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS development in Spain.
Image courtesy of Acciona
G. Matos and L. Wagner, “Consumption of Materials in the U.S.,”

INDUSTRIAL MINERALS

2.5k RECYCLED METALS

PRIMARY METALS esd authors

Annual Review of Energy and the Environment (1998)
million metric tons

2k NONRENEWABLE ORGANICS energy and

RECYCLED PAPER sustainability

1.5k PRIMARY PAPER

WOOD PRODUCTS

1k AGRICULTURE

0
1995
1900

GREAT

RECESSION
WW I

DEPRESSION

OIL CRISIS
WW II

ESD is working in a number of areas to better frame the

problem of sustainability, to identify existing approaches
that can be used to address issues, and to expand the
set of relevant analytical methods and tools.

For example, ESD researchers are making life-

cycle assessments of alternative materials and
manufacturing processes, examining techniques and
strategies to mitigate resource scarcity and increase the
use of secondary materials, and analyzing the prospects
for different energy sources over the next half-century.
ESD researchers are also assessing alternative
transportation technologies and modeling the energy
and environmental characteristics of electricity
generation and transmission under alternative policy
designs, carbon mitigation strategies, and electrical
network architectures.
Health Care Delivery
According to the World Health Organization, 100 million
people are impoverished every year by paying out of
pocket for health care. In the United States, about
15 percent of the population is
uninsured and tens of thousands Health Benefits-Age Profile
of Americans die each year from
medical errors, according to the US
Institute of Medicine. Furthermore,
the aging population in much of the age 80+ | 11.53

developed world is consuming an

ever-increasing share of health care
outlays (see chart). age 75–79 | 8.52

age 00–14 | 0.88

While innovative local initiatives have
age 15–19 | 0.82
been shown to lower the medical
age 20–49 | 0.77
error rates and the incidence of
age 50–64 | 1.00
staph infections at specific hospitals, age 70–74 | 5.02
(reference group)
age 65–69 | 5.01
there are large-scale systems
issues involving medical training,
government regulations, and Index of relative health care expenditure by AgeLab has developed
insurance incentives that are beyond age. (The 50–64 age group is the reference
at 1.00.) Figure taken from Hagist, Christian a robotic “pill pet” to
and Laurence Kotlikoff. “Who’s Going assist in medication
the scope of local control. Broke? Comparing Healthcare Costs in Ten
OECD Countries.” compliance. Image
courtesy of AgeLab
ESD researchers take a systems view to make health
care delivery more efficient by applying inventory theory
and process improvement methods to the operations
of hospitals and their supply chains. Much of the work
involves the analysis of trade-offs between risks and
benefits of patient treatments; between costs and
level of service; and between individual rights and
society’s goals. Such work involves not only technology
development and implementation but also a deep
understanding of the organizational and ethical issues,
as well as the human behaviors involved—from the
supplier, provider, insurer, and patient perspective.

Multi-level decomposition of the stakeholders

in a health care system

Regulator Supplier
The Lean Advancement Initiative’s
health care research uses Straussian Payer Patient Insurer
Grounded Theory for iterative data
Interest
collection regarding the structure of Provider
Groups
the US health care system. The figure
depicts the multiple stakeholders in
all the system’s echelons while the Primary esd authors
Flu Clinic
research is focused on understanding Care
health care
the various players’ incentives. Courtesy Home Nursing Specialist
Care Care delivery
of the Lean Advancement Initiative headed Home
by Professor Deborah Nightingale Ancillary
Hospital
Services

Labs Pharmacy

Operating Inpatient Primary

Rooms Units Care
Emergency Radiology
Department

Cleaning Psychologist

Nurse Physician Student

Resident
Supply
Admin Staff
Technician
 12 :: 13
MIT Engineering Systems Division
research

“The response of engineers and

program managers during the
16 days that Columbia was in
orbit raises important issues
for educating and utilizing
engineers, as well as questions
about their responsibility to
treat system-level issues with
the same disciplinary respect
and expertise with which they
treat components.”
Sheila Widnall, Institute Professor, MIT and
Member of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident
Investigation Board
Just as nanotechnology is deepening
our understanding of the very small,
engineering systems is expanding
our understanding of the very large
and complex systems that involve
technology, people, and processes.

Macro-level research brings with it a new and

exciting set of scholarly challenges, not the least of
which is the impossibility of conducting experiments
in tightly controlled environments. ESD therefore
partners with industry and governments to address
problems that are realistic and important, as well as
to simulate new approaches and to test theories in
real organizations.


Macroscopic systems all exhibit technical, managerial,
and social complexity. ESD draws upon faculty
members from engineering, management, and the
social sciences to integrate their methodologies
and develop solutions in each of its four domains of
concentration. More than 50 faculty members and
researchers, most holding dual or joint appointments
with other MIT units, are devoted to teaching and
research in engineering systems.

The following cross-cutting

approaches are some of the lenses
which ESD researchers apply to
multiple domains:
 he Interface of Humans and
T
Technology esd authors
 ncertainty and Dynamics
U research
 esign and Implementation
D methodologies

Networks and Flows

P olicy and Standards


Not all approaches fit neatly into these categories, but
in all cases, ESD researchers bring an engineering
mind-set to problems that do not lend themselves
to purely quantitative approaches or purely technical
solutions. They seek out fundamental principles that
can be used to understand, design, and implement
engineering systems.

ESD PhD students Brandon

Owens and Blandine Antoine
discuss a system dynamics model
of the possible causal loops that
may have led to the Columbia
accident. The model was
originally developed by Nicolas
Dulac (A&A PhD ‘07) in Professor
Nancy Leveson’s research group.
Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz
 14 :: 15
MIT Engineering Systems Division
research
Virtual reality displays attempt
to close the distance between
humans and technology. Still,
little is known about the cascading
effects of automation on overall
system performance and safety.
Image courtesy of NASA
APPROACHES
Advances in medical technology—
from magnetic resonance imaging
to laser surgery—have improved
health care for millions, but the
integration of new technologies
with existing processes poses a
continuing challenge.
Image courtesy of Intuitive
Surgical, Inc.
The Interface
of Humans and
Technology
The explosion of automated technology and the
emergence of complex technological systems have
greatly increased the need to support human interaction
with these systems. Human errors in aviation, for
example, currently account for almost 80 percent of
accidents. A significant contributor is human interaction
with the technology: pilots are often confused by
automated mode changes.
Complex technologies—from the Internet to global
positioning systems—are now integral to everyday life,
affecting decisions across ESD’s four domains. Yet ever-
more-automated devices distance people from physical
control of the action, which can change behaviors and
affect safety. Technology can also put new demands on
organizations, creating a need for restructuring.
Research in ESD focuses on illuminating the complex
relationship between designers, users, and technology
to facilitate the design improvements and effective
operation of complex systems. Recognizing that human
interaction with complex technology has both individual
and group elements, ESD is developing methodologies
and investigating key questions ranging from system
design, to human-in-the-loop modeling, to process
interventions, to organizational structures.
esd authors
the interface
of humans and
technology
 Infrastructures
Health Care

Infrastructures
Sustainability

Sustainability
Delivery

Health Care

Critical
Enterprises

Enterprises
Extended

Extended
Energy &

Energy &

Delivery
Critical
Humans & technology Humans & technology
Uncertainty & Dynamics Uncertainty & Dynamics

Design & implementation Design & implementation

Networks & Flows Networks & Flows

Policy & Standards Policy & Standards

Driving Innovation in Aging and Human Real-Time Predictive Human Supervisory

Technology Interaction
Understanding how older people learn, interact, and adopt technology is critical
to moving inventions into everyday use. The Engineering Systems Division’s
AgeLab—in collaboration with colleagues in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Brain
and Cognitive Sciences, and the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence
Laboratory—is working to design a car that enables older people to drive safely
longer.
Control Models of Team Collaboration
Complex systems are typically managed by difficult-to-supervise teams of human
controllers. Feedback about interactions between team members, as well as with
the system, may not be observable, and such critical collaboration factors as team
knowledge and shared cognition are difficult to assess in real time.

The lab’s cherry red VW Beetle fixed-

base simulator, “Miss Daisy,”is
designed to help researchers explore
how in-vehicle warnings, navigation,
and entertainment systems—as well as
basic innovations in communications—
are learned, adopted, and affect driving
performance across the human lifespan.
Miss Daisy’s on-the-road mirror image,
“Miss Rosie,” is equipped with sensors
and video systems to understand how
strength, flexibility, and disease affect
driving—including such basic tasks as
backing up and parking.

Recently, the AgeLab developed the AwareCar—a black Volvo SUV that
integrates more than $1 million of sensors, software, and data analysis
systems to understand how visual attention, health, physiological change,
cognitive workload, and in-vehicle technologies affect driving performance. The
research vision is to realize a vehicle that integrates three critical subsystems
of safe driving—the driver, the vehicle, and road conditions. One of the most
sophisticated experimental vehicles at any university, the AwareCar senses the
driver’s performance and adapts its own performance to both the driver’s needs
and road conditions to achieve optimal safety and comfort.

ESD researchers use The goal of this project is to build models of NASA’s control room of the
the AgeLab’s fixed-base team behaviors able not only to recognize the International Space Station
simulator, Miss Daisy current state of a team supervising automation exemplifies how human beings are
(above) to test the effects increasingly required to work with
in real time, but also to predict future states
of technology on driving multiple layers of technology.
performance of the of this team. Specifically, the team models Image courtesy of NASA
elderly. are based upon the observation of behavioral
Image courtesy of AgeLab patterns at both the individual and collective
levels. A main contribution of this project will be to determine the robustness
The AgeLab’s AwareCar of the prediction of future team behaviors based on observing social patterns
(right) adapts to both of collaboration. This project is therefore at the intersection between artificial
the driver’s needs and
intelligence and social sciences. Given the prevalence of team interaction with
road conditions using
an array of sensors and
many complex systems such as air traffic control, disaster first response, and
computers. military command and control, this research is relevant to numerous high-risk
Image courtesy of AgeLab critical systems.

Coughlin, J. and J. Pope, “A Consumer-Centered Approach to Intelligent Home Services to

Support Health, Wellness & Aging-in-Place,” IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology, 27(4),
47–52, July/August 2008.
Coughlin, J., “Disruptive Demographics, Design and the Future of Everyday Environments,”
Design Management Review, 18(2), 53–59, Spring 2007.
Boussemart, Y., & M.L. Cummings, “Behavioral Recognition and Prediction of
an Operator Supervising Multiple Heterogeneous Unmanned Vehicles,” Humans
Operating Unmanned Systems `08, September 3–4, 2008, Brest, France.
 16 :: 17

Uncertainty and
MIT Engineering Systems Division

Dynamics
Globalization has opened up a wealth of opportunities
for businesses to diversify, expand, and invent new
products and services. But globalization has also
increased the exposure of companies to a wide world
of uncertainty—design teams are geographically
dispersed, long supply chains are subject to volatility,
multiple actors introduce diverse requirements and
expectations, and regulations change over time and
from place to place. In addition, the rate of technological
innovation means that long-lived products have
to be designed to accommodate unknown future
research

Crude oil prices technologies.

Iranian Revolution

US Price Controls

us 1st purchase price ESD research zeroes in on fundamental principles that

Iran / Iraq War

(wellhead)
can be applied to multiple industries and business
Series of OPEC Cuts

$100
4.2 Million Barrels

world price

average us $24.98
models. Research into uncertainty and dynamics
attempts to answer questions such as:
OPEC 10% Quota Increase

$80 average world $27.00

US Price Controls
APPROACHES

median us & world $19.04

1. What are the key sources of uncertainty in each
Weaker Dollar
Asian Growth
PDVSA Strike
Asian Econ Crisis

particular engineering systems context?

2006 $/barrel

$60
Iraq War
Yom Kippur War

9/11

2. How can these uncertainties be modeled and

oil embargo

Gulf War
Suez Crisis

quantified so that they can be taken into account

$40
during design, implementation, and management of
the systems?
$20 3. How can both robust and flexible strategies be used
to design systems in order to both mitigate downside
$0
risks and take advantage of upside opportunities?
4. How can properties such as safety and resilience be
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07

maintained as systems change over time?

ESD risk management research The basic approaches to tackling uncertainty include
looks both at catastrophic building in robustness and flexibility. Improving planning
events, such as Hurricane
Katrina (top), and uncertain
for uncertainty—to minimize risk and maximize
fluctuations, such as those opportunities—holds promise for all four of ESD’s key
demonstrated by the price of oil research domains.
shown in the chart above.
Katrina image courtesy of US
Coast Guard; chart adapted from
WTRG Economics

esd authors
uncertainty and
dynamics
 Infrastructures

sustainability
Health Care

Infrastructures
Sustainability

Energy &
Delivery

Health Care
Critical
Enterprises

Enterprises
Extended

Extended
Energy &

Delivery

Critical
Humans & Technology Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & implementation Design & Implementation

Networks & Flows Networks & Flows

Policy & standards Policy & standards

New Approaches to Accident Modeling and Uncertainty in Impacts of Global

System Safety
Current analytic risk approaches are based largely on the assumption that
accidents and serious losses arise from a linear chain of directly related system
component failures, human errors, or energy-related events. These traditional
causality models do not adequately account for multiple indirect, non-linear, and
feedback relationships among events. They also do not explain accidents that do
not involve component “failures” but which instead are caused by dysfunctional
component interactions. Each component functions individually within a standard
or acceptable performance range or in the context of an appropriate objective,
and yet together the component interactions lead to a loss.
Climate Change
One of the most significant environmental challenges of the 21st century
will be how to address the threat of global climate change. Reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will require the development
of new technologies and energy sources, at potentially high cost. This effort is
complicated by the wide range of uncertainty in future climate projections.
DECADAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
(2090–2100) – (2010–2000)

ESD researchers are developing new, powerful accident causality models and 1.0 CCSP 750 STABILIZATION

risk management techniques that can handle the complexity of today’s technical ccsp 550 stabilization

and social systems. Using systems and control theory as the mathematical NO POLICY
0.8
foundations and a causality model (called STAMP) that expands traditional
CCSP: Climate Change
models, the researchers are constructing computational models of the static
PROBABILITY DENSITY

Science Program
(structural) and dynamic aspects of complex, socio-technical systems to provide 0.6
Synthesis and Assessment
Product 2.1a
information about potential risks.

This new approach to risk analysis and management has been successfully 0.4
demonstrated on technical systems such as building safety into the design of new
NASA spacecraft and assessing the potential for an inadvertent launch in the new
0.2
US missile defense system. At the social system level, it is being applied to such
diverse applications as health care, space shuttle operations, pharmaceuticals,
food safety, and corporate fraud. It is potentially applicable to any safety-critical, 0.0
socio-technical infrastructure.
0

10
DECADAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE ˚C
NASA EMPLOYEE GAP FOR COMPLETING THE SHUTTLE
REPLACEMENT A primary focus of the climate Probability distributions of temperature change
Unless Congress Relaxes Hiring Constraints change research at MIT is to over the 21st century under no climate policy,
characterize the uncertainty in stabilization of CO2 at 750ppm, and stabilization
4,000 at 550ppm. The probability of exceeding 4˚C
Limits on future climate impacts. Using MIT’s
warming under these policies are 80%, 60%, and
Hiring Integrated Global System Model,
5%, respectively. From M. Webster, C. Forest, H.
+ ESD researchers have performed Jacoby, S. Paltsev, R. Prinn, J. Reilly, M. Sarofim,
2,950 a rigorous assessment of the most A. Schlosser, A. Sokolov, P. Stone. “Long-term
HIRING GAP [EMPLOYEES]

critical uncertain assumptions greenhouse gas stabilization and the risks of

in the model. Using data where dangerous impacts.” Working Paper, 2008.
1,900 available and techniques to elicit
expert judgment, the researchers have constructed probability density functions for
the uncertain model parameters, and have used Monte Carlo simulation techniques
for uncertainty propagation. Probability distributions of critical model outcomes,
850
Transfers such as the future surface temperature of the earth, can then be compared between
from Shuttle
different greenhouse gas concentration stabilization paths.
+
-200 The results of this work provide information on how the risks of extreme climate
impacts are reduced by limited greenhouse gas emissions. These probabilistic
0

37.5

75

112.5

150

results are used by numerous government agencies, including the Environmental

time (months)
Effects of hiring constraints on safety of NASA systems are one of the
many social and political factors considered in the new framework for
systems safety for NASA’s Space Exploration Mission Directorate.
National Academies of Science and Engineering (2006), Issues Affecting
the Future of the US Space Science and Engineering Workforce: Interim
Report, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC
Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Congressional Budget
Office, as well as parties to international climate negotiations, to understand the
level of mitigation effort needed to achieve climate objectives with a given level of
confidence.
Webster, M.D., C. Forest, J. Reilly, M. Babiker, D. Kicklighter, M. Mayer, R.
Prinn, M. Sarofim, A. Sokolov, P. Stone, and C. Wang, “Uncertainty Analysis of
Climate Change and Policy Response,” Climatic Change, 61(3), 295–320, 2003.

Leveson, N., “A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems,” Safety Science, 42(4), Congressional Budget Office (2005), “Uncertainty in Analyzing Climate Change:
April 2004. Policy Implications,” January 2005.
 18 :: 19

Design and
MIT Engineering Systems Division

Adaptive OFAT is used by Cobasys engineers to

Implementation
improve the performance, reliability, robustness,
and cost effectiveness of their energy storage
systems. Image courtesy of Cobasys

Large engineering systems, such as those

supporting communications, transportation,
and electricity generation and distribution,
account for much of the world’s economy.
Considering that each one had to be designed
for performance, economy, flexibility, and
resource sustainability, one could argue that
system design is the single most important
activity defining modern civilization.

System design is a complex and diverse

research

the viability of the one-factor-at-a-time (ofat) activity involving coordination of many

experimental design method professionals and corporate functions,
including research and development,
Run a resolution III design Again, run a resolution III on noise engineering, finance, manufacturing,
on noise factors factors. If there is an marketing, and distribution and logistics.
improvement, retain the change.
Change one factor Design research in engineering systems
Repeat the process. If the response explicitly takes into account within the
APPROACHES

b gets worse, go back to the previous

state.
design these functional needs as well as the need to
b
c c plan for future uncertainties. A holistic design further
a a Stop after changing every control incorporates implementation and enterprise adoption
factor once.
b challenges, without which designs are just a theoretical
a
c exercise.
E
b ESD researchers work to improve the various processes
F a
c associated with design and implementation, including
requirements development, product architecture and
D design, program and project management, and new
reliability/robustness/testing methods. ESD researchers
also explore the process of implementing various designs
Before ESD Associate Professor Daniel Frey began his research, and the change management process itself, as part
the one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method of testing designs was of a series of projects dealing with the challenges of
considered deficient. For example, N. Logothetis and Henry P.
Wynn, authors of Quality Through Design (Oxford University Press,
enterprise architecture.
1995), proclaimed the ‘final demise of the simple one-factor-at-
a-time method.’ But Frey was able to definitively prove the utility
of the method. As Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger later
remarked in Product Design and Development (McGraw Hill, 2007), esd authors
‘an adaptive one-factor-at-a-time approach has been shown to
yield better performance optimization.’ design and
implementation
 Infrastructures

sustainability

enterprises

Infrastructures
Extended
Sustainability

Energy &

Health Care
Health Care

Critical
Enterprises
Extended
Energy &

Delivery
Delivery

Critical
Humans & Technology Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & implementation Design & implementation
Networks & Flows Networks & Flows

Policy & Standards Policy & Standards

Real Options in System Design Strategic Materials Decisions: Systems

Although designers often promote the idea of flexibility, explicit consideration
of flexibility in system design represents a considerable departure from current
engineering practice. The rationale for flexibility in design is that, due to
uncertainty, there is value in having “the right, but not the obligation,” in other
words, an option, to react to future developments.
This research focuses on the development of valuable flexibility in designs.
Conceptually and professionally, this work lies midway between standard
engineering (which does not consider design flexibility in any detail) and financial
real options analysis (which does not look at design). ESD’s research team has
developed a “screening model” approach to the core problem of identifying the
system elements that should be flexible in order to increase value. Screening
models are mid-fidelity models that run much faster than standard detailed
design models. They can be used to examine the performance of many designs
across great ranges of scenarios, thus pinpointing system architectures that are
the most attractive prospects for detailed design.
Proper inclusion of flexibility in system design can increase the expected value of
projects by over 25%. ESD researchers work closely with industries ranging from
aerospace and satellite communications, to automotive and energy, to health
care, construction, and real estate to identify opportunities for flexible designs.
Applications of the integrated screening
model to oil and gas field development
Insights to Improve Recyclability
The average per-capita consumption of materials in the United States exceeds
a staggering 50 kg each day. While the average consumption of the rest of the
world lags significantly behind that of the United States, it is growing at twice
the rate. As in other areas, the challenge is to accommodate this growth while
preserving resource sustainability.
Materials choices affect every aspect of the life cycle of every product, from
materials production to manufacture to use, end-of-life, and materials recovery.
The environmental effects of these choices are not only the energy consumption
and emissions from product manufacture, but also the environmental
consequences of the uses to which these products are put.
Product and materials recycling can limit the environmental impacts of
manufacturing processes, but its implementation has been largely opportunistic,
rather than grounded in an appreciation of the interactions among materials
science, production technology, materials markets, and product life cycles.
Using simulation and stochastic optimization methods, ESD researchers have
developed recycling strategies that include redesign of materials, products,
recycler processes, recovery infrastructure, and policy. This work has shown
that reframing production analyses around these broader interactions yields
tools that can identify undervalued raw materials, refine batch-mixing decisions,
characterize recycling-friendly alloy design, and guide strategic alloy choices.
Additionally, the team discovered that probability-based models can identify
operational improvements across many forms of production.

1 Deterministic inputs: TRADITIONAL

• 50% OOIP Baseline NPV PRACTICE THE MATERIALS CYCLE
• Bespoke facilities design Single number for
• Fixed oil/gas market price NPV as a decision
>

making criterion
Primary Production
2 + Bespoke Design + > NPV distribution Products
Reservoir: Oil/gas price RU + MU
STOOIP
NEW PARADIGM
>

Value-at-Risk-
ap

M cr
an
and-Gain u fa c t u r i n g S
Curve (VARG)
3 + + > NPV distribution + • Expected NPV
Reservoir: Flexible staged Oil/gas price RU + MU + flexibility • Maximal Gain
STOOIP facilities + intelligent staged facility The complete set of
• Maximal Loss
decision rules strategies to improve
• Initial CAPEX
>

• Value of material recovery only

Flexibility emerge when considering
4 + + > NPV distribution +
the system as a whole.
Reservoir: Flexible facilities + Oil/gas price RU + MU + flexibility scrap
s

Figure courtesy of Professor

t L o ss e

STOOIP intelligent decision staged facility +

rules + tie-back tie-back options Randolph Kirchain
flexibility Reclamation
Produc

Losses reclamation

RU: RESERVOIR UNCERTAINTY MU: MARKET UNCERTAINTY

OOIP: ORIGINAL OIL IN PLACE STOOIP: STOCK TANK ORIGINAL OIL IN PLACE

Evaluation of the value of flexibility in the design of upstream

oil and gas exploration facilities begins with establishing a
deterministic baseline design (1), followed by evaluation of
the design under uncertainty (2), response under uncertainty
with facility-level flexibility (3) and response with increasingly
sophisticated flexibility strategies such as the tie-in of new
fields over time (4). Courtesy of Professor Richard de Neufville
This work is currently extended to model how recycling system policy and
architecture influence recovery economics and effectiveness; the potential for
technological solutions to mitigate the deterioration of secondary resources;
and the role of recycling to manage volatility and scarcity in the larger materials
system.

Wang, T. and R. de Neufville, “Identification of Real Options in Projects,” 16th Annual INCOSE Gaustad, G., P. Li, and R. Kirchain, “Modeling Methods for Managing
International Symposium, Orlando, July 2006 (Prize for Best Paper at INCOSE International Raw Material Compositional Uncertainty in Alloy Production,” Resources,
Symposium). Conservation, and Recycling, 52(2), 180–207, 2007.
 20 :: 21
MIT Engineering Systems Division
The intermodal station in the vast
logistics park in Zaragoza, Spain, is
shown under construction in 2007.
The rail, air, and road network in the
park underlie the complex network of
companies, processes, and flows serving
as a hub for southwestern Europe.
Image courtesy of the
MIT-Zaragoza Program
research
APPROACHES
Networks and Flows
Networks and flows characterize all engineering
systems:
• Technically—as power generation plants link to
transformers, transmission lines, and consumers
• Socially—as contractual relationships, government
policies, and cultural needs affect the flow of people,
goods, and information
• Managerially—as links connect designers, suppliers,
manufacturing plants, warehouses, distribution
centers, and retail shops
Network modeling has been used both for systems
that resemble physical networks and as a powerful
modeling tool to represent many other systems
involving relationships between entities. For example,
decisions over time and space can be represented by a
graph structure, as can schedules and assignments.
ESD research into networks and flows applies modern
graph and network theory to complex systems, but does
so in a way that allows a representation of the dynamics
and uncertainties that are most relevant to engineering
systems.
esd authors
networks and
flows
 Infrastructures
enterprises

enterprises

Infrastructures
Extended

Extended
Sustainability

Sustainability
Health Care

Health Care
Critical
Energy &

Energy &
Delivery

Delivery

Critical
Humans & Technology Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & Dynamics Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & implementation Design & Implementation

Networks & flows Networks & flowS

Policy & Standards Policy & Standards

Change Propagation Analysis in Complex Wal-Mart Transportation Portfolio

Technical Systems
Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is
critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and
not through clean sheet design. This research develops and applies change
propagation analysis methods and extended prior reasoning through examination
of large data sets from industry. One such data set at Raytheon Integrated Defense
Systems included 41,500 change requests, spanning eight years during the design
of a complex sensor system.
Management
Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, is also one of the largest private fleet
owners, with more than 8,000 drivers operating more than 60,000 pieces of
equipment. In addition to using its own equipment, the company is a major
purchaser of for-hire trucking services—with both dedicated fleets and individual
lane contracts. One of the challenges that Wal-Mart faces is determining, at a
strategic level, when and where to use these different types of transportation
resources. Each type of resource (private fleet, dedicated fleet, and for-hire
carrier) has a different cost structure and risk profile. Additionally, the number of
loads on each lane within the freight network is variable as well as uncertain.

The MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics is working with Wal-Mart
to address this challenge by modeling its transportation requirements as an
exceptionally large-scale stochastic network and developing evaluation algorithms
based on a multi-dimensional stochastic linear program utilizing column
generation. The model makes recommendations on fleet assignment based on
both direct costs and coverage risks. Because each lane is part of the network,
neither the costs nor the risks are independent—the model must take both of these
network effects into account.

fleet assignment as a function of risk on an intermittent

traffic lane Lane: V93252 > DCP ~P(3.6)
risk neutral
Propagation network of 2,600
connected changes in a Sensor 100%
System at Raytheon IDS prob
90%
Courtesy of Professor Olivier de Weck cumu
80%

70% excess short

PROBABILITY

60% sensitive sensitive

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

The research used graph theory to define how specific network relationships of
0

10

connected “parent,” “children,” and “sibling” changes are resolved over time and loads per week

mapped to various subsystem areas. Wal-Mart uses sophisticated mathematical

algorithms to contract for and operate the vast
The research also developed a normalized change propagation index, showing the transportation network (right) that supports
relative strength of subsystems or components on the absorber-multiplier spectrum its operations. Optimal capacity allocation
(above) is based on the company’s sensitivity
between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are
to the risks of having either too many trucks
good candidates for more focused change management and embedding of flexibility. contracted or too few available to carry the
Patterns emerge from such industrial data and offer clear implications for technical loads. The relative magnitude of these two
change management approaches in system design. distinct risks determines how much of each type
of transportation asset to allocate.
The insights from this research have had an impact on program and change The graph is based on the work of CTL researcher
management at Raytheon, Xerox, and BP and have led to the formation of a research Francisco Jauffred. Image courtesy of Wal-Mart
consortium of 20 industrial firms as sponsored by the Cambridge-MIT Institute.

Giffin M., O. de Weck, G. Bounova, R. Keller, C. Eckert, and J. Clarkson, “Change Propagation Caplice, C. and Y. Sheffi, “Combinatorial
Analysis in Complex Technical Systems,” ASME 2007 Design Engineering Technical Auctions for Truckload Transportation,” in
Conferences, DE TC2007-34652, Las Vegas, NV, September 4–7, 2007 (in press for ASME Cramton, P. et al (ed.) Combinatorial Auctions,
Journal of Mechanical Design). MIT Press, 2006.
 22 :: 23

Policy and Standards

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Many modern engineering challenges require solving

Many ESD students, mostly in the Technology
and Policy Program, have interned at federal
and state government agencies.
©iStockphoto.com/Dieter Spears
research
problems subject to political, legal, and regulatory
constraints. The increased reliance of modern societies
on engineering systems requires ESD researchers to
consider many such constraints to be design variables.
Rather than treating regulations and policies as given,
ESD researchers investigate how they can be changed
as part of the design process. Understanding the policy-
setting process is thus critical to translating insights
gained from modeling and analysis into comprehensive
solutions—ones that include policy making, engage
diverse constituencies, and incorporate implementation.

For example, while the original development of the

Internet standards was perceived as a technical
problem, today’s challenges involve industrial
economics of the telecommunications industry,
intellectual property law, privacy, and security.

Technical standards and protocols are fundamental

APPROACHES

determinants of the scope of the technical systems,

economic markets, and policy domains that are
objects of study in ESD. Interoperability standards
and protocols allow components of a system to work
together, and standardized measures of performance
allow for outsourcing of fabrication and assembly of the
components of complex systems.

ESD researchers are studying various policy-setting

mechanisms and are involved in setting policy within
their research areas. For example, the Program on
Emerging Technologies explores how protocols and
standard-setting can influence both the technical and
industrial trajectories of emerging technologies. The
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
integrates climate science with economic
modeling to assess the effectiveness of
esd authors
policy instruments needed in the face
policy and of greenhouse gas emissions. And the
standards
Materials Systems Laboratory seeks to
couple product design and manufacturing
choices with environmental and economic
consequences to guide materials and
process research toward more sustainable
product development.

The standardized bar code speeds transactions and

simplifies inventory tracking.
 sustainability
Health Care

Infrastructures
Infrastructures
Sustainability

Energy &
delivery

Health Care
Enterprises
Enterprises

Extended
Extended
Energy &

Delivery

Critical
Critical
Humans & technology Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & dynamics Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & Implementation Design & Implementation

Networks & Flows Networks & Flows

Policy & standards Policy & standards

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Flu CO2 Geological Storage Options

Preparedness and Response A multi-disciplinary team with expertise in systems analysis, economics,
sequestration, law, and political science looked at the challenge of regulating
SARS and avian flu have raised awareness of the risk of pandemic flu, and billions carbon dioxide and storage. The research combined legal analysis of potential
of dollars are now being devoted to influenza research. However, little attention has tort liability from seismicity that might be induced by carbon injection into
focused on simple behavioral changes that can reduce the incidence of infection. geological formations and from contractual liability from carbon dioxide leakage
This research merges probabilistic model building with social science and from structures, with a technical review and assessment of sequestration
management principles, to show that simple, non-pharmaceutical interventions options. The technical analysis concentrated on the storage of CO2 in deep saline
(NPIs) could significantly reduce the death toll of an epidemic. formations and oil and gas fields, which are considered to be the most likely
near-term geological storage options. Deep saline formations and oil and gas
To depict the social contact behavior of a heterogeneous population susceptible fields are believed to offer the largest capacity for geological storage and in many
to infection, the researchers developed a non-homogeneous probabilistic mixing cases are in close proximity to large sources of CO2.
model. They partitioned the population into subgroups, based on frequency of
contacts and infection propensities, and then developed a difference equation The legal analysis of liability relied on conventional legal research methods to
model to depict the evolution of disease. This model showed that early identify relevant statutes and cases and assess their implications for contractual
exponential growth of the disease among those with frequent human contact may and tort liability.
not be indicative of the general population’s susceptibility, and social distancing
may be effective in combating flu. The work was presented to staff members of the US Senate Committee on Energy
and Natural Resources who were writing legislation to regulate sequestration
Under reasonable assumptions, the model predicts that early and intense use of risks. The team was also commissioned to write a briefing paper on liability
NPIs can reduce—by as much as 20 to 40 percent—flu infection and death rates. issues for the International Risk Governance Council.
This research led to a two-day workshop on pandemic flu for representatives from
12 states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Department of
Homeland Security, and others. In recognition of this work, Professor Richard C. CO2 storage Liability proposal
Larson has been invited to become a member of the Board on Health Sciences
Policy of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Overview of geological storage options
1 Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2 Use of CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
THE EFFECT OF TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS 3 Deep saline formations– (a) offshore (b) onshore
4 Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
1 4
3b
10,000 High activity
3a
2
middle activity
8,000 Sea
low activity level
new infecteds

total activity
6,000

4,000
1km Produced oil or gas

2,000 Injected co2

stored co2
0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

days The most promising CO2 storage options are in deep

saline formations and oil and gas fields. The research
Infection spread within a community combined technical storage systems analysis with
that reacts to previous day’s news market considerations, tort and contractual liability
only by proportionally scaling back issues, and regulatory systems analysis.
the average number of contacts
for all its members. Courtesy of figure from: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Professor Richard Larson IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and
Storage, Summary for Policy Makers and Technical
Summary, IPCC, (2005)

Larson, R.C., “Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population,”

Operations Research, 55(3), 399–412, May–June 2007.
de Figueiredo, M., H. Herzog, P. Joskow, K. Oye, and D. Reiner, “Regulating Carbon Dioxide
Nigmatulina, K.R. and R.C. Larson, “Living with Influenza: Impacts of Government Imposed and Capture and Storage: Legal, Regulatory and Organizational Issues,” International Risk
Voluntarily Selected Interventions,” to appear in European Journal of Operational Research, 2008. Governance Council, January 2007.
 24 :: 25
MIT Engineering Systems Division
education

“ESD’s educational programs

are the embodiment of MIT’s
mens et manus philosophy,
academically rigorous but also
well-grounded in practice
through ESD’s unique set of
partnerships with industry and
government.”
Steven R. Lerman, Dean for
Graduate Education, MIT
 ESD offers a doctoral degree and five1
master’s programs. All programs
share a common, holistic approach to
engineering systems. ESD prepares
engineers to lead in the real world,
where clean answers are anomalies
and challenging technical problems
rarely have purely technical solutions.
For that reason, the division is strongly tied to
organizations in industry and government. The vast
majority of ESD students in the master’s programs work
on real problems in industry, while the thesis research
of the PhD students typically involves methodological
developments.

All ESD programs focus on leadership, preparing

students to be agents of change in academia, industry,
and government. The PhD program is focused on
academic and research leadership, while the master’s
programs are focused on industry and government
leadership. What distinguishes each of the master’s
programs is its focus within the life cycle—whether
students deal primarily with design, manufacture,
operations, or policy issues—although in all cases
these boundaries are porous. All ESD students are
expected to attain deep competencies outside their
areas of concentration, and in particular are expected
to maintain and deepen their technical excellence.

ESD by the numbers (2008)

441 graduate students
51 faculty members
117 ESD courses plus 8 under development

Program length

Selectivity (%)1
Date Founded

Yield (%)2
(months)
Students
Program

enrolled

TPP 1975 100 24+ 363 80

LFM 1988 95 24 29 82

SDM4 1996 150 13–24 565 90

MLOG 1998 36 9 23 78

PhD 2002 60 36–78 26 74

1
Ratio of students accepted to applied
2
Ratio of matriculated students to accepted
Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz

3
Excluding internal dual degree applicants
4
SDM selectivity and yield percentages exclude certificate program students
5
Pre-selection made by partner companies prior to application

1
In addition to the four master’s programs shown in the table, ESD offers
a master’s program for students who wish to pursue an independent
advanced degree in engineering systems. The ESD SM is also an option
for the engineering degree awarded to graduates of the Leaders for
Manufacturing Program.
 26 :: 27

ESD PhD Program

MIT Engineering Systems Division

ESD’s doctoral students are on the leading edge of the

evolution of engineering systems approaches—well-
grounded engineers committed to thinking imaginatively
about ways to broaden engineering’s scope to solve
complex problems. ESD is dedicated to providing the
tools they need to lead the way—in academia and in
industry.

Doctoral students in ESD face an ambitious

undertaking. They must acquire a broad view of
fundamental engineering systems thinking and
deep knowledge of one or more domains of interest.
In addition, they are required to develop thorough
education

competence in certain established methodologies

(such as operations research, economics, management
concepts and methods, and social science methods).
And, of course, each student’s dissertation is expected
to make a seminal scholarly contribution to the field
of engineering systems. This means
uncovering principles and articulating the
properties underlying such systems, thereby
Doctoral degree and projects

adding to the developing knowledge of

engineering systems approaches.

phd student placement

(2004–2008)

industry 34%
other 13%

government
(inc. military) 17%
Clockwise from the top:
ESD PhD ‘06 Konstantinos
Kalligeros; ESD PhD ‘06 Ralph ACADEMIA 36%
Hall and Prof. Joe Sussman;
Prof. Annalisa Weigel and ESD
PhD ‘06 Heidi Davidz

MIT’s engineering systems PhD is the program of

choice in our field. An average of 15 candidates a year
are enrolled in the program, which takes about five
years to complete. Peers include Carnegie Mellon
University (Engineering and Public Policy Department),
Delft University of Technology (Technology, Policy,
and Management Faculty), and Stanford University
(Management, Science, and Engineering Department).
 Infrastructures
enterprises

Infrastructures
Extended
Sustainability

Sustainability
Health Care

Health Care

Critical
Enterprises
Energy &

Extended
Energy &
Delivery

Delivery
Critical
Humans & Technology Humans & Technology

Uncertainty & Dynamics Uncertainty & dynamics

Design & Implementation Design & implementation
Networks & flows Networks & Flows

Policy & standards Policy & Standards

Design for Location: Offshore Manufacturing Technology Infusion Analysis Under

and Technology Competitiveness Uncertainty
Prof. Fuchs’s research combines qualitative Most new technologies only deliver value once
field research with engineering-based decision they are infused into a parent system. While the
tools to provide insight into the global drivers of literature on innovation is abundant, no rigorous
technological change. At MIT, she studied the methodologies have been available to evaluate the
impact of manufacturing location on technology risks and opportunities of new technologies within
development incentives and thereby the technology a wider competitive and regulatory context.
trajectory of firms. She looked at two cases of
emerging technologies: advanced composites Dr. Smaling developed a technology infusion
in automobiles and integrated components in assessment methodology to quantify the potential
optoelectronics. In both cases, her results show performance benefits of new technologies using
that when US firms shift production from the multi-objective Pareto analysis. The costs of
United States to such countries as China, the most infusing new technologies are determined by
advanced technologies developed in the United calculating the architectural invasiveness of
States no longer pay. Production characteristics each technology concept relative to a baseline
Erica Fuchs, PhD 2006 are different abroad, and earlier technologies can Rudy Smaling, PhD 2005 system. The degree of invasiveness of different
Assistant Professor, be more cost-effective in countries like China. Chief Engineer, Hybrid system architectures is related to the amount
Department of Engineering Among other issues, this leaves the most advanced Systems Architecture, of design change required to accommodate the
and Public Policy, technologies abandoned, and, at least in the case Eaton Corporation new technology. This can be quantified with a
Carnegie Mellon University of the optoelectronics industry, creates a barrier to component-based change Design Structure Matrix,
returning production to the United States. ∆DSM. Risks and opportunities are measured by weighing the future benefits and
costs of a new technology against uncertain exogenous variables and scenarios
With her research group at Carnegie Mellon, Prof. Fuchs continues to study such as gains that may be made by competing technologies and potential future
technology and global competitiveness, including (1) the role of the US regulatory actions. The technology infusion methodology was demonstrated
government in seeding and encouraging new technology trajectories, (2) the for a hydrogen-enhanced combustion engine, where the effects of integrating a
consequences of offshore outsourcing for knowledge flows and production-floor plasma fuel reformer into a vehicle were quantified in terms of fuel economy, NOx
learning within firms, and (3) the resiliency of the US innovation ecosystem to emissions, and vehicle add-on costs.
external shocks, including a critical set of firms moving manufacturing offshore.
relationship between technology development,
US Optoelectronic Device Manufacturing Capability technology infusion, and the societal impact of technology
$1,200 Technology Development
(Component Level)
base case yield* Technology Infusion
$1,100 air, fuel (System Level) Technology Societal Impact
unit production cost ($/eml)

Discrete Device
Base Case discrete device base case 3.9% ∆DSM model (Super-system level)
Plasma Fuel
$1,000 monolithic base case 2.3% Reformer H2 CO1 N2

*yield refers to cummulative yeild of laser

Capital Investment
$900 energy (NRE)
uncertainty

$800 3% Economy
Technology Infusion
(Subsystem Level) Environment
$700 2% Discrete Regulations
Device
CAD Model Engine Integration uncertainty Competition
Yield Test Vehicle
Monolithic uncertainty
$600
Yield

4.5% Vehicle add-on cost ($)

$500
Monolithic 3% uncertainty Vehicle Fleet
Base Case
$400
0

10

20

30

40

50

annual production volume (‘000s) Improved Emissions and

Fuel Economy
US integrated device manufacturing yield has to be 40% higher in order to
compensate for the cost advantage of manufacturing discrete devices in East Asia.
The methodology for carrying out technology infusion analysis was subsequently
adopted and refined at Xerox Corporation to assess new technologies for digital
Fuchs, E., E. Bruce, R., Ram, and R. Kirchain, “Process-Based Cost Modeling of Photonics printing systems. This work received the Best Paper in Systems Engineering
Manufacture: The Cost-Competitiveness of Monolithic Integration of a 1550nm DFB Laser and Award 2007 from the International Council on Systems Engineering.
an Electro-Absorptive Modulator on an InP Platform,” Journal of Lightwave Technology, 24(8),
3175–3186, 2006.

Fuchs, E., F. Field, R. Roth, and R. Kirchain, “Strategic Materials Selection in the Automotive Smaling, R. and O. de Weck, “Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Technology Infusion in
Body: Economic Opportunities for Polymer Composite Design,” Composite Science and System Design,” Systems Engineering, 10(1), 1–25, 2007 (Award for Best Paper in Systems
Technology, 68(9), 1989–2002, 2008. Engineering from INCOSE).
 28 :: 29

Technology and Policy

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Program
The Technology and Policy Program (TPP) strives to
develop leaders who can create, refine, and implement
responsible policies that are informed not only by an
understanding of technology and its instruments, but
also by the broad social contexts that both shape and
are shaped by technology. TPP seeks to equip students
to be effective leaders in both the public and the private
sectors.

Students pursue a two-year course of study that

includes classes in law, public policy, economics, and Recent thesis
education

introductory policymaking and leadership. They also research:

conduct funded research projects across all five of
MIT’s schools. Roughly one-half of TPP students get For his thesis, Driving
hands-on policy experience through the TPP Summer Segments Analysis for Energy
Internship Program, which helps to place students in and Environmental Impacts of
Worsening Traffic, TPP ’07 Wen
policy-making positions in governments, industry, and
Feng used sensitivity analysis
nongovernmental organizations. to investigate the effects of
masters programs

altering vehicle choice, fuel

consumption, and emissions.
What TPP did was open my eyes to
how you could engage problems in a In his thesis, Introducing
socially relevant way, while backing the Concept of Sustainable
Transportation to the US DOT
up your approach with the rigor of through the Reauthorization
analytical thinking. of TEA-21, TPP ’03 Ralph Hall
demonstrated the institutional
Bryan Moser, SM TPP ’89
complexity hindering the
CEO, Global Project Design achievement of sustainable
transportation in the United
States.
The TPP thesis is a major research work. Students
are expected to place a problem within its technical
and social context, synthesize the technical and policy
questions that arise from the problem, frame these
questions for assessment and evaluation, conduct the
analysis needed to gain insight into these key questions,
and provide leadership on what can and ought to be done.

TPP’s almost 1,000 alumni include university

professors, deans and chancellors, CEOs, CFOs, CTOs,
officials with government ministries, agencies and
NGOs—and five Rhodes Scholars.

Boston’s Central Artery/

Tunnel project (left) involved
significant technological feats,
complex project management,
and significant political and
policy considerations. Many
TPP students have worked
on urban transportation
planning projects, emphasizing
both the technology and
the policy aspects. Over the
years, Technology and Policy
Program students have held
internships in federal and state
government, private industry,
consulting firms, and numerous
international organizations.

http://esd.mit.edu/tpp
 System Design and
Management Program
The System Design and Management (SDM) Program
offers a master’s degree jointly awarded by the MIT
School of Engineering and the MIT Sloan School of
Management. Built on a foundation of core courses in
system architecture, systems engineering, and system
and project management, SDM focuses on improving
the design of products and systems from both a
technical and management perspective.

Students learn to respond to user needs, allocate

functionality, decompose systems, and define Recent thesis
interfaces. They also learn to manage tasks to ensure research:
the best use of resources, both human and financial,
and to meet cost, performance, and schedule targets. SDM ’06 Sorin Grama’s thesis
work, A Survey of Thin-Film
A system dynamics diagram of the rework Solar Photovoltaic Industry &
cycle in a typical complex project Technologies, helped his team
Figure courtesy of Senior win honors in the 2007 MIT 100K
Lecturer James Lyneis entrepreneurial competition
with a solar-powered
+ microgenerating system
Experience assembled from common
Dilution
+ automotive parts.

experience Too Big to

congestion & SDM ’06 student Luis Maseda
Manage
communication developed a model to help
difficulties hospital administrators frame
workforce
investment decisions for his
fatigue + thesis, Real Options Analysis
Burnout overtime of Flexibility in a Hospital
effort applied - - Emergency Department
Expansion Project, a Systems
Work More Add People
Approach.
quality
productivity
+ work intensity
hiring

Haste Makes Waste

rework

original
progress generation
Work -
work to do done
Work Faster or
“Slack Off”

rework Undiscovered effort needed

to do work

rework
discovery
time remaining

known work
deadline
remaining

I work in an industry that is grappling

Sorin Grama, SDM ‘06, and a group
daily with larger and more complex of MIT students and local volunteers
problems. The ability to step back and in front of a solar thermal system
in Lesotho, Africa. The prototype
consider the big picture and all of the system was built in 2007 as part of a
different interactions—with knowledge World Bank-sponsored initiative.

of both the technical and managerial

concerns—is priceless.
Monica L. Giffin, SDM ’06
SDM students participate Radar Systems Engineer, Raytheon
in a design challenge
competition. Team members
work together to creatively
tackle a technical problem
within a short time span.
Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz http://esd.mit.edu/sdm
 30 :: 31

Leaders for
MIT Engineering Systems Division

Manufacturing
Program
Leaders for Manufacturing (LFM) students get two
degrees: an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of
Management and an SM from ESD or one of the other
MIT engineering departments. LFM focuses on the
broader definition of manufacturing, encompassing
delivery and service. The program is founded upon the
belief that manufacturing and operations excellence
is the basis for the economic and social well-being of
individuals and companies operating in global markets, Recent thesis
education

Andrea Jones’s internship at Honeywell

Aerospace in Phoenix, Arizona, is an example
of the breadth of an LFM internship project.
Jones, LFM ‘06, recognized that through
enterprise-level optimization of supply chain,
assembly, and test practices, Honeywell could
improve its on-time delivery of quality engines
to customers. She conducted a Lean Enterprise
Self Assessment Tool (LESAT) survey to
highlight opportunities to propel Honeywell to
masters programs
and consequently for society as a whole. research:
LFM students gain a solid background in engineering, LFM ’07 Ken Merriam spent
six months interning with the
operations management, information technology,
online retail giant Amazon
teamwork, change management, and systems thinking. for his thesis, Reducing Total
A defining feature of the program is its internship. LFM
Fulfillment Costs at Amazon
students spend 6.5 months on an internship at a partner E.U. through Network Design

a culture of high performance.
company and use the experience as the basis for their
LFM theses.
The tailored LFM leadership
curriculum provided me with the
foundation to bring to Boeing
practical solutions to complex,
real-world problems. LFM’s
advanced education has proven,
over time, to be robust and
enduring. I continue to leverage
what I learned in my work today.
Patrick Shanahan, LFM ’91,
General Manager of The Boeing Company’s improve customer value.
787 Dreamliner project
Optimization. His work enabled
the company to minimize
its U.K. transportation costs
and provided the basis for
optimizing the assignment of
orders and inventory to multiple
warehouses.
While interning at Novartis, LFM
’07 John Heiney utilized a series
of deterministic and stochastic
models to predict the impact of
multiple operational changes on
cost and cycle time in early-
stage drug testing. His thesis,
Optimization of Preclinical
Profiling Operations in Drug
Discovery, helped the company
reduce materials spending by
$500,000 per year, increase
capacity, reduce cycle time, and

A team of first-year students

in ESD’s Leaders for
Manufacturing Program plans
its product development
strategies during a simulation
as part of its Lean Product
Development Workshop. The
workshop takes place during
the program’s first summer.

http://esd.mit.edu/lfm
 Master of Engineering
in Logistics Program
The business of logistics—designing and coordinating
the flow of products, information, money, and ideas
through the supply chain—is an enormous industry. The
US logistics bill is now more than $1 trillion—a bigger
share of the GDP than that of Social Security, health
care, or defense.

The Master of Engineering in Logistics (MLOG) Program

was created to produce a new generation of supply
chain management professionals able to revolutionize
this massive industry. The program focuses on using
engineering principles to solve global supply chain
challenges, providing students with proficiency in
problem-solving approaches, information technology
systems, and change management leadership.
My MLOG education has given
me tools that allow for a deeper
and more meaningful search for
business solutions to drive the
supply chain organization forward.
Randy Fike, MLOG ’05
Worldwide Supply Chain Strategy Manager,
Lexmark
Recent thesis
research:
MLOG ’07 Joshua Merrill created
a cross-enterprise network
planning model capturing the
risk involved in uncertainty in
both supply and demand for his
thesis, Risk in Premium Fruit
and Vegetable Supply Chains.
MLOG ’08 Allison Bennett and
Yi Zhuan Chin’s thesis, 100%
Container Scanning: Security
Policy Implications for Global
Supply Chains, quantified the
impact of increased security
procedures for incoming
freight containers on US-based
companies.

supply chain volatility amplification

Students in the MLOG 80

class of 2009 play the

60
“beer game” (above)
demonstrating the
40
“bullwhip” effect in supply
% change year over year

chain—the amplification
20
of orders as one gets
“upstream” and away from
0
the consumer.
1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

Image courtesy of L. Barry -20

Hetherington
-40 Major Greg Holt (MLOG 2005) wrote
The graph (right) shows an home on August 1, 2008 that among
instance of this amplification -60 his many other current duties he
in the automotive machine conducts “logistics analysis of traffic
tool industry. -80 % change in gdp patterns to restore a healthy flow
Anderson, E., C. Fine, and G. Parker, of goods between factories and
% change in vehicle production “Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain:
The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study,” markets,” and “is using the lessons
% change in machine tools orders Production and Operations Management, 9(3), of ESD.260 in Iraq.” (Greg Holt served
239-261, Fall 2000.
as a Special Forces officer in two
combat tours in Afghanistan and
Iraq from 2002 to 2004. He re-joined
the Army after finishing his MLOG
degree to serve a 3rd combat tour in
http://esd.mit.edu/mlog Fallujah, Iraq.)
 32 :: 33
MIT Engineering Systems Division
Global Reach

“The Engineering Systems

Division forges partnerships
with industries, governments,
and academic institutions
throughout the world,
developing communities of
researchers and educators
focused on systems challenges
of global importance.”
Subra Suresh, Dean of the School of
Engineering, MIT
 11 12 1 Cambridge, Many of the ideas being explored and
USA
10 2 the methods being developed within
9 3 ESD Headquarters at MIT
the Engineering Systems Division are
8 4
7 5 designed to be put to use in systems
6
that span the globe.
Expanding the reach of engineering systems by
working with industry, government, and international
organizations is central to the mission of the
Lisbon, Engineering Systems Division.
11 12 1
10 2 Portugal
Large-scale problems require large-scale experiments,
9 3 MIT Portugal
and ESD is utilizing large-scale projects that employ
8 4 +5hrs whole communities of academics, industry experts,
7 5 and government partners to integrate research with
6
education. Rather than confining research to the
classical laboratory within the university, many ESD
researchers’ laboratory is the real world, and their
research is performed in the very environments that
their ideas and solutions are designed to influence.
11 12 1 Zaragoza,
10 2 Spain
9 3 MIT-Zaragoza International
8 4 Logistics Program
7 5 +6hrs
6

11 12 1 Abu Dhabi,
10 2 United Arab Emirates
9 3 Masdar Initiative
8 4 +8hrs
7 5
6

11 12 1 Shanghai,
10 2 China
9 3 LFM China
8 4 +12hrs
7 5
6

11 12 1 BogotÁ,
10 2 Colombia
9 3 The Center for Latin-American
8 4 Logistics
7 5 -1hr
6
 34 :: 35

Global Supply Chain and Logistics

MIT Engineering Systems Division

Excellence Network
The Global Supply Chain and Logistics Excellence (SCALE) Network is an international
alliance of three leading research and education centers founded and organized by the
MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. Members are dedicated to sustainable
global economic growth through the development of supply chain and logistics
knowledge, technology, and processes—and to their dissemination though
education and training.

Member centers:
The MIT Center for
The MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics in Cambridge, MA. Widely Transportation &
recognized as an international leader in transportation, logistics, and supply Logistics
Global Reach

chain management research and education, the center manages the Supply
Chain Exchange, a consortium of more than 50 partner companies. The center
also helps coordinate the extensive transportation and logistics research and
educational offerings conducted throughout MIT.

The Zaragoza Logistics Center (ZLC) is home of the MIT-Zaragoza International

Logistics Program in Zaragoza, Spain. This research and education
partnership, launched in 2003, brings academia, industry, and government
together to experiment with new logistics processes, concepts,
and technologies. It is in the process of moving into the center of
scale network

PLAZA, the largest logistics park in Europe, home to more than 300
logistics and distribution installations, using these companies as
a living laboratory. In 2006, the ZLC was designated by the Spanish
government as its national Center of Excellence in Logistics. The Center for
Latin-American Logistics
The Center for Latin-American Logistics Innovation in Bogotá, Innovation
Colombia. Founded in 2008, this center, which is housed in LOGyCA,
Degrees Offered
is the focal point of a network of Latin American universities engaged
• MIT-CLI Supplemental Master
in supply chain management education and research. Current projects
Certificate in International
center on critical infrastructure, urban transportation, and operational risk
Logistics and Supply Chain
management—balancing a global perspective with Latin-American needs.
Management
Less than six months after its founding, the CLI was designated by the
• MIT-CLI Supplemental PhD
Colombian government as its Logistics Center of Excellence.
Certificate in International
Logistics and Supply Chain
The $36 million SCALE program involves dozens of European and Latin-
Management
American universities, more than 15 supporting companies in Spain and six
in Colombia, and more than 20 public agencies and NGOs. The Zaragoza
program involves more than 20 faculty members locally, while dozens of
faculty members across Latin America are involved in the Colombia program.

Faculty, researchers, students, and affiliated companies from all three centers pool
their expertise and share in learning through joint projects, student exchanges, faculty
visits and multi-continent corporate events. Together the centers collaborate on
the development of tools
and processes that help
retailers, manufacturers,
suppliers, and carriers thrive
in an increasingly complex
and competitive business
environment—and in a
sustainable fashion.

The LOGyCA campus contains several

demonstrations of using advanced
information technologies in logistics
application, including several
simulated store formats, a hospital
and a warehouse. Pictured: an RFID-
enabled simulated supermarket
where alternative software solutions
can be tested. Courtesy of LOGyCA
 The Zaragoza Logistics
Center will be situated in the
PLAZA logistics park (far left)
in Zaragoza, embodying the
“university within the laboratory”
concept.

Zaragoza University (left).

The MIT-Zaragoza MLOG students (below) visit the
International Logistics Barcelona port as part of the
Program annual student exchange with
the Zaragoza Logistics Center.
Degrees Offered
• MIT-Zaragoza Master of
Logistics & Supply Chain
Management (ZLOG)
• MIT-Zaragoza PhD in
Logistics and Supply Chain
Management
• Master de Logistica (MdL)

SCALE Projects:
Culture of Risk
This effort explores how the concepts of “risk,” as well as business continuity planning
and risk management differ across the globe. One major question of this research is
whether the “risk management” culture of a multi-national company dominates that
of the local culture where a facility is located. The project consists of research teams
in four continents (North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia) interviewing
corporations and developing models to understand how risk is measured, monitored,
and managed.

Health Care Delivery in Emerging Markets

This set of projects, based out of the Zaragoza Logistics Center in Spain, is
determining the best way for drugs to be distributed within emerging markets. The
key issue is to understand how the supply chain needs to be designed (including the
set of proper incentives) in order to maximize the number of patients reached. A
series of controlled experiments testing different incentive schemes and supply chain
designs are being run in Ghana, Zambia, and Uganda.

Critical Infrastructures
Infrastructure developments in emerging economies do not necessarily need to
follow the same path as in Western nations. Cell phone adoption within Africa is the
quintessential example of new technology leapfrogging older technologies in emerging
markets. This project examines how innovation in logistics and transportation
infrastructure differs across various geographies and conditions. Research teams in
the US, South America, and Europe are examining how the development and location
of transportation links, logistics parks, and related I/T infrastructure can shape local
economic development.
 36 :: 37

MIT Portugal
MIT Engineering Systems Division

The MIT Portugal Program is a $40 million international collaboration in which

MIT and government, academia, and industry in Portugal work together to
develop education and research programs related to engineering systems. It aims

©iStockphoto.com/José Luis Gutiérrez

to demonstrate that a strategic investment in science, technology, and higher
education can have a positive, lasting impact on a nation’s economy by addressing
key societal issues through education and research in the emerging field of
engineering systems. The program involves more than 50 MIT faculty members
and 180 faculty and researchers in seven Portuguese universities, and has already
attracted more than 20 supporting companies.

The program’s four initial focus areas all

employ engineering systems approaches:
Global Reach

Bioengineering Systems
Courtesy of PhD student Irene Ferreira

Understanding the key performance drivers of the

biotechnology/bioengineering sector is critical
to Portugal, which has targeted this sector as an
economic development priority. In addition to promoting
technological innovation, MIT Portugal researchers are
developing measurement tools to assess innovation
mit portugal

in bioengineering and to determine how technological

Degrees Offered advances translate into competitive advantage.

PhD programs in: Engineering Design and Advanced Manufacturing

• Bioengineering Systems Researchers are developing methodologies that support
• Engineering Design and Advanced decision making in dynamic supply networks in order
Manufacturing—Leaders for Technical to increase flexibility and achieve high levels of global
Industries network efficiency. Companies in the automotive industry
• Sustainable Energy Systems have been used as pilot case studies, and specific logistic
• Transportation Systems and operations management problems have been
selected to demonstrate the potential of the approaches
Master’s/Advanced Postgraduate in practice.
programs in:
• Complex Transport Infrastructure Sustainable Energy Systems
Systems (Transportation Systems) MIT and participating Portuguese universities are
• Sustainable Energy Systems developing a new generation of energy professionals
• Technology Management Enterprise focused on the engineering systems aspects of energy
(Engineering Design and Advanced systems design. Collaborative research involving
Manufacturing) industry and governments is grouped into three areas:
energy planning (including economics), sustainable built
environment, and smart energy networks.

Transportation Systems
MIT is working together with Portuguese universities
to develop a cadre of transportation researchers and
professionals in Portugal who are trained at the system
level in the design and management of a technology-
intensive, intermodal transportation system. The
approach combines traditional engineering courses with
insights into management and finance, as well as policy
and regulation.

The Engineering Systems Anchor Program consists

of a set of projects and educational initiatives that
creates linkages and synergies between the four
tracks of the MIT Portugal Program.
 The MIT Portugal Program will promote a new research
and education agenda on engineering systems, involving
consortia of Portuguese universities and giving emphasis
to large-scale systems that not only have critical
technological components, but also have significant
enterprise and socio-technical-level interactions, in a way
that will promote new engineering research in Europe.
Manuel Heitor
Secretary of State for Science, Technology, and Higher Education
Government of Portugal (2006)

MIT-Portugal

©iStockphoto.com/ Christine Balderas

Determinants and measurements of innovation in
bioengineering: A cross-national study of successful and
unsuccessful efforts to create an innovation scorecard. The
P r o g r am

research developed a web-based tool to serve as repository

of the data collected during the course of the project.
This tool will also allow data to be retrieved and displayed
according to the metrics developed.

Lightweight materials in automotive body component:

Image courtesy of MIT Portugal

Three Portuguese universities, MIT, INTELI, and industrial
en g inee r in g s y stems A nch o r

affiliates teamed up to develop an evaluation methodology

for alternative materials in engineering applications that
incorporates performance, cost, and environmental impact
perspectives.

Remote islands face unique challenges in meeting growing

©iStockphoto.com/ Rui Vale Sousa

energy needs while minimizing environmental impact as
energy costs skyrocket. With the cooperation of local energy
companies, government, and residents, MIT Portugal
researchers are working to develop and implement an energy
strategy on the remote Portuguese islands of the Azores
that seeks to meet a majority of the islands’ energy needs
with local resources. Research on robust, cost-effective and
implementable energy strategies for the Azores will serve as
a model for other regions.

CityMotion: Using real time data feeds, this project aims to

Image courtesy of MIT Portugal

improve the public transportation system performance in

major Portuguese cities. The data feeds are based on cell
phone usage, GPS data, roadside RFID readers, and a variety
of sensors. A pilot application will provide users with timely
data to plan trips through the city using multiple modes of
public transportation.
 38 :: 39
MIT Engineering Systems Division
ESD 2020

“The years between the present

and 2020 offer engineering the
opportunity to strengthen its
leadership role in society and
to define an engineering career
as one of the most influential
and valuable in society and one
that is attractive for the best
and the brightest.”
The Engineer of 2020: Visions of Engineering in
the New Century (NAE, 2004)
The Engineering Systems Division has
taken up the gauntlet—working to
prepare engineers not only as technical
experts but as effective leaders who
can guide industry, government, and
other organizations in the development
and application of technologies to
tackle society’s challenges.
Managing the entry of more than a billion people
into the middle class while mitigating the impact on
resource availability and the environment; improving
health care provision in all parts of the world; providing
affordable goods everywhere on the planet; and offering
mobility and accessibility for human activities are just
some of the challenges facing the global community in
the 21st century.

As the world flattens, ESD is at the forefront, providing

the tools and framing the analyses that can improve
many of the engineering systems that elevate the
human condition.

CESUN
As part of its mission, ESD is working with other
universities to advance the engineering systems
discipline. In 2004, ESD founded the Council of
Engineering Systems Universities (CESUN), which now
has 50 member universities around the world. CESUN
provides mechanisms for academic cooperation on an
institutional level as well as for the joint furtherance of
engineering systems as a discipline.
www.cesun.org

Book Series
In conjunction with the MIT Press, ESD has launched
an engineering systems book series. The series has
an editorial board chaired by Joel Moses of MIT and
includes Richard de Neufville (MIT), Manuel Hector (IST,
Lisbon), Granger Morgan (CMU), Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
(Stanford), and William Rouse (Georgia Tech).

The first books in the series are likely to be:

Nancy Leveson
System Safety

Richard de Neufville and Stefan Scholtes

Engineering Design with Real Options

Olivier de Weck and Edward Crawley

Principles and Methods for System Design
and Management

The Masdar Institute of Science and Technology was established in 2006,

in partnership with MIT, as part of an ambitious project to build the world’s
greenest city. Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City aims to be the world’s first zero-carbon,
zero-waste, car-free city. This $42 million MIT project involves over 50 faculty
members, and has already effected the hiring of 25 faculty members (eight of
whom have PhDs from MIT) at the Masdar Institute. Picture shows an architect’s
rendering of a street in Masdar City. With permission from Foster + Partners.
 40 :: 41

Engineering Systems—
MIT Engineering Systems Division

The Fundamentals of a
Developing Field
Engineering systems differ fundamentally from purely
physical, chemical, or biological systems in that their
underlying structures, behaviors, and evolutionary
patterns are not encoded in a DNA-like substance
that can be sequenced, analyzed, and replicated in
a laboratory. Difficult-to-quantify human conduct is
woven into the very fabric of engineering systems.
Consequently, ESD uses an expanded set of tools to
columns understand and simulate the behavior of such systems
ESD 2020

and ultimately predict their performance.

The nature of many ESD projects is such that small-scale

laboratory experiments are not meaningful or helpful
to the researchers. These ingénieurs sans labos work
closely with industry and government using the world
as their laboratory; there are more than 100 companies
working closely with the various ESD programs. Such a
style of research and education is one of the hallmarks of
ESD. Engineering systems approaches require, in many
cases, methods that are beyond the state-of-the-art due
to size and complexity. In these cases, domain knowledge
is used to facilitate the solution method—for example by
restricting the feasible region through innovative “cuts”
or applying domain-valid problem decompositions.

We cannot yet articulate the Kirchhoff’s laws or the

second law in thermodynamics that are applicable
to all engineering systems. We can, however, make
general statements that apply to most systems. For
example, one cannot improve on a set of optimal
solutions by adding constraints to a problem’s feasible
region; and, by and large, statements about aggregate
sets of random variables are at least as accurate
as the same statements made about disaggregate
subsets. And Little’s law in queuing theory may be an
example of a universal systems principle. Beyond this,
systems researchers have made significant progress
in articulating “phenomena” or “effects” that occur in
complex engineering systems—such as the bullwhip
effect in supply chains, the coalescence of change
networks in highly coupled technical systems, the
feedback loops underlying complex systems safety, the
principles of real options-oriented design for uncertainty,
and the recovery dynamics of enterprises subjected to
major disruptions. A number of these effects have been
well-described and observed in practice, but their onset
and mitigation are not yet fully understood since they are
clearly rooted in the system’s architecture as much as in
the organizational culture and incentives of the various
stakeholders.

Going forward, our understanding of engineering

systems will continue to grow as we discover and
describe principles and properties—equipping engineers
to address significant global problems and build a
sustainable future.
team esd
Social network of ESD faculty and
teaching staff. Each node represents
a faculty member; two individuals
are connected by a link if they served
together on one or more of the 46
past or 62 present ESD doctoral
committees (starting in 2004). Note
that the network is fully connected
with an edge to node ratio of 3:1,
suggesting a high level of faculty
collaboration in the development of
the field of engineering systems.

School of Engineering

Sloan School of Management

School of Humanities, Arts

and Social Sciences,
School of Science

ESD Faculty and Teaching Staff

Professor Emeritus Thomas J. Allen, PhD
Professor George E. Apostolakis, PhD
Assistant Professor Hamsa Balakrishnan, PhD
Professor Cynthia Barnhart, PhD
Senior Lecturer Chris Caplice, PhD
Professor John Stephen Carroll, PhD
Professor Joel P. Clark, ScD
Senior Lecturer Joseph F. Coughlin, PhD
Professor Edward F. Crawley, ScD
Associate Professor M.L. Cummings, PhD
Professor Michael A. Cusumano, PhD
Professor Richard de Neufville, PhD
Associate Professor Olivier L. de Weck, PhD
Professor Thomas W. Eagar, PhD
Professor Steven D. Eppinger, ScD
Senior Lecturer Frank R. Field, III, PhD
Professor Charles H. Fine, PhD
Senior Lecturer Stan Neil Finkelstein, MD
Associate Professor Daniel Frey, PhD
Professor Stephen C. Graves, PhD
Senior Lecturer Patrick Hale
Professor Robert J. Hansman Jr., PhD
Professor David E. Hardt, PhD
Professor Daniel E. Hastings, PhD
Assistant Professor Randolph E. Kirchain Jr., PhD
Professor Thomas Anton Kochan, PhD
Professor Paul A. Lagacé, PhD
Professor Richard Charles Larson, PhD
Professor Nancy G. Leveson, PhD
Professor Seth Lloyd, PhD
Professor Stuart E. Madnick, PhD
Professor of the Practice Christopher L. Magee, PhD
Professor David H. Marks, PhD
Professor David A. Mindell, PhD
Professor Sanjoy K. Mitter, PhD
Professor Fred Moavenzadeh, PhD
Professor Ernest J. Moniz, PhD
Institute Professor Joel Moses, PhD
Professor Dava Newman, PhD
Professor of the Practice Deborah J. Nightingale, PhD
Associate Professor Kenneth A. Oye, PhD
Senior Lecturer Donna H. Rhodes, PhD
Professor Daniel Roos, PhD
Senior Lecturer Donald B. Rosenfield, PhD
Professor Warren P. Seering, PhD
Professor Yossi Sheffi, PhD
Professor David Simchi-Levi, PhD
Professor John Sterman, PhD
Professor Joseph M. Sussman, PhD
Professor James M. Utterback, PhD
Professor Eric A. von Hippel, PhD
Professor David Wallace, PhD
Assistant Professor Mort David Webster, PhD
Assistant Professor Annalisa L. Weigel, PhD
Professor Roy E. Welsch, PhD
Senior Lecturer Daniel E. Whitney, PhD
Institute Professor Sheila E. Widnall, ScD
Associate Professor John R. Williams, PhD
Assistant Professor Maria Yang, PhD
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineering Systems Division

web: http://esd.mit.edu
email: esdinquiries@mit.edu

1948 Norbert Wiener

publishes Cybernetics

1954 Henry M. Paynter establishes one of

the first systems courses
1961 Jay Forrester publishes Industrial Dynamics
1971 Alfred H. Keil establishes the Center for
Policy Alternatives

1973 Center for Transportation Studies is founded

1975 Technology and Policy Program is founded

1985 Center for Technology, Policy, and Industrial Development is formed

1988 The Leaders for Manufacturing Program is launched

1989 MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity publishes “Made in America”

1991 Technology, Management, and Policy Program (TMP) PhD is founded

1993 The School of Engineering publishes “Engineering with a Big E”

1996 The Eagar Committee recommends the creation of ESD

1996 MIT’s System Design and Management Program is founded

1998 Master of Engineering in Logistics Program is founded

1998 The Engineering Systems Division is founded

2000 First tenured dual faculty hired by ESD

2004 ESD Doctoral Program is established, incorporating the TMP

2004 Council of Engineering Systems Universities is launched

2008 Two dual junior faculty tenured at ESD