DECEMBER 2010/JANUARY 2011 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

Inside This Issue Strouse Realty Group

American Dream Realty
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 Scotts Valley, CA 95066
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> STATISTICS: JOB GROWTH .................. 3
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01228878
> CHARTS: SP/LP & SALES YTD ........... 4

The Real Estate Report

local market trends SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Nov 10 Oct 10 Nov 09
Median Price: $ 550,000 $ 513,873 $ 550,000
Av erage Price: $ 589,509 $ 572,392 $ 626,278
Units Sold: 113 112 141
Sales Momentum Continues to Slow Inv entory : 678 748 553
Sale/List Price Ratio: 97.9% 96.8% 98.1%
Sales momentum for single-family, re-sale homes MORE STATISTICS… Day s on Market: 79 67 83
in Santa Cruz County continued to drop in Novem- The median sales price for single-family, re-sale Day s of Inv entory 174 200 114
ber: down to –10%. homes reversed course in November, after drop-
ping 3.9% in October. The median price gained 7% The sales price to list price ratio for condos jumped
WE CALCULATE… from October. 2.1 points to 99.2%.
sales momentum by using a 12-month moving
average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this The median price was flat year-over-year. Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
year’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, we neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
Inventory of single-family homes continued drop- For complete information on a particular neighbor-
get a percentage showing market momentum.
ping: down 9.4% from October. Year-over-year,
hood or property, call.
PRICING MOMENTUM… inventory was up for the sixth month in a row:
after peaking in September at +11%, has also 22.6%.
started to drop, and is now down to +10%. The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.8 of a point
PENDING MOMENTUM… to 96.8%.
while still positive, has also been trending down- IN THE CONDO MARKET…
ward. This is due, in large part, to investors leaving The median price was off 23.7% compared to last
the market because of concerns over who actually November, while the average price was down
holds, and can produce, the original mortgage 4.3%.
note.
Condos sales were down 26.9% year-over-year.
Pending momentum peaked in July at +40%. In
November, it was +23%. Pending sales, a harbinger of future sales, were
down for the third month in a row: 5.3%.
Inventory, on the other hand, increased for the
sixth month in a row: up 16.9% year-over-year.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Momentum

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASON
-20.0%
5 6 7 8 9 0
-40.0%

-60.0%
Sales Pending Median © 2010 rereport.com

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481

 The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Dec. 3 2010 -- Mortgage rates rose again this week, With the increase in rates, it's little surprise that appli-
responding to signals of an improving economy. Only cations for new mortgages have dropped sharply,
10-10 a lackluster employment report for November kept particularly for refinancing. Given what seems to be
07-10 them from increasing further. the particularly strong interest rate sensitivity of this
04-10
01-10 refinancing boomlet, refinancing activity will probably
The 10-year Treasury, a benchmark for fixed-rate
10-09 grind to a halt absent a new decline in rates. Despite
07-09 mortgages, crested above 3% this week, and has
the rise, rates remain at veryattractive levels, but
04-09 risen nearly a half-percentage point from November's
01-09 there simply aren't enough high-rate mortgages
daily low. The yield is the highest since July, and
10-08 which can be successfully refinanced at these rates
07-08 mortgage rates are following right along. Some
and in the context of today's tight lending standards.
04-08 dreams of low-rate refinancing have come to an end,
01-08 at least for the moment. Still, perspective is important. Home purchases rely
10-07
07-07 far less on rock bottom interest rates and far more on
HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weekly
04-07 economic improvement, especially income and job
01-07 Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found the
growth. Those who wish for lower rates are, in a way,
10-06 average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages moved
07-06 wishing economic misfortune on others. At this stage
eight basis points higher (.08%), ending HSH.com's
04-06 of the recovery, we should all be cheering even
01-06 national survey at 4.86%, its highest value since
mildly better economic news, even if it does engen-
10-05 early August. For low down payment homebuyers or
07-05 der somewhat higher rates. Yes, fewer household
refinancers with only a slight equity position, FHA-
04-05 balance sheets will be improved by refinancing, it's
01-05 backed loans are available at an average rate of
true, but if that comes at the expense of more folks
10-04 4.52%, while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid
07-04 getting jobs, spending money and buying homes
ARMs rose three basis points to 3.66% for the week.
04-04 sooner rather than later, so be it.
01-04 HSH.com's public mortgage interest rate data series
include rates for conforming, jumbo, and most re-
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
cently the GSE's "high-limit" conforming products and
so covers much of the mortgage-borrowing public.

The chart above shows the National

monthly average for 30-year fixed
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com. The average includes mort-
gages of all sizes, including conforming, Santa Cruz County Homes - Prices & Sales
"expanded conforming," and jumbo. (3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
$1,000 250

Single-family Home Sales

Median & Average Prices

$900
$800 200
$700
150
$600
$500
100
$400
$300 50
$200
$100 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASON
6 7 8 9 0

Santa Cruz County - November 2010

Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. County $ 550,000 $ 589,509 113 254 678 174 96.8% 0.0% -5.9% -19.9% -11.2% 22.6%
Strouse Realty Group Aptos $ 561,000 $ 633,000 7 14 37 154 98.3% -16.9% -41.1% 133.3% -6.7% 19.4%
American Dream Realty Capitola $ 662,000 $ 645,667 3 4 26 252 97.0% 3.9% 7.5% -25.0% -42.9% 52.9%
5522 Scotts Valley Dr. Rio del Mar $ 640,000 $ 953,286 7 9 58 241 94.0% -22.5% -13.0% -30.0% -52.6% 3.6%
Scotts Valley, CA 95066 Seacliff $ 536,000 $ 536,000 1 3 12 349 88.0% 0.4% 0.4% -50.0% -50.0% -45.5%
(831) 338-6481 San Lorenzo Vly $ 272,500 $ 286,475 16 38 95 172 98.1% -27.3% -27.2% -36.0% -15.6% 21.8%
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com Soquel $ 790,000 $ 968,071 7 18 30 124 96.6% 15.2% 50.8% 16.7% 80.0% 7.1%
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com Scotts Valley $ 535,000 $ 662,778 9 25 77 248 92.7% -29.5% -24.3% -10.0% 0.0% 28.3%
DRE #01228878 Santa Cruz $ 590,000 $ 659,711 35 48 143 119 95.3% -0.6% -8.1% -20.5% -22.6% 30.0%
East County $ 317,625 $ 438,125 10 27 87 253 98.1% 0.8% -1.1% -47.4% -12.9% 45.0%
West County $ 484,000 $ 549,750 3 4 21 203 94.6% -51.6% -45.0% 200.0% -55.6% 23.5%
Page 2 Watsonv ille $ 285,000 $ 298,667 9 42 37 119 98.6% -16.2% -10.0% -18.2% 0.0% 117.6%
 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change Strouse Realty Group
40.0% American Dream Realty
30.0% 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
20.0% Scotts Valley, CA 95066
10.0% (831) 338-6481
0.0% Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-10.0% 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J A SON http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-20.0% 6 7 8 9 0 DRE #01228878
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

STATISTICS: JOB GROWTH & MIGRATION

Last month we talked about tracking momentum to
determine the best times to buy and sell real estate.
The statistics used to track momentum are:
1. Existing home sales
2. New home building permits
3. Mortgage loan defaults
4. Foreclosure sales, and
5. Interest rates
DIGGING DEEPER…
into the trends that affect the local real estate market,
we have two more statistics to examine.
First, job growth. Job growth is crucial for determining
demand in the market. All things considered, if job
growth is increasing, then demand for real estate will
increase. Yet, the quality of the job growth must be
taken into account. If job growth is predominately in-
creasing in the service/retail sector, then demand will
increase in the first-time buyers segment of the market.
If job growth is increasing in the technical/professional
sector, then demand will increase in the move-up and
high-end segments of the market.
Next, migration. Similar to job growth, a positive in-
migration to the local community will spur demand in
the real estate market. Again, the quality of that in-
migration will determine which segment of the market
benefits most.
For a detailed forecast of the Santa Cruz County Econ-
omy, go to:
http://rereport.com/scc/print/Santa_Cruz.pdf.

Table Definitions
_______________

Santa Cruz County Condos- Prices & Sales Median Price

(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50%were lower.
$700 50
Median & Average Prices

45
$600 40 Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
Condo Sales

$500 35
number of sales.
30
$400 25
20 SP/LP
$300 15 Sales price to list price ratio or the
10 price paid for the property divided by
$200 the asking price.
5
$100 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASON DOI
6 7 8 9 0 Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
Santa Cruz County - November 2010 of sales.
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices Pend
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven Property under contract to sell that
County $ 276,500 $ 354,465 19 72 173 264 99.2% -23.7% -4.3% -26.9% -5.3% 16.9% hasn’t closed escrow.
Aptos $ 347,900 $ 347,900 1 2 6 174 100.0% -23.7% -23.7% -50.0% -33.3% 100.0%
Capitola $ 260,000 $ 261,125 4 4 11 80 99.4% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Inven
Rio del Mar $ 665,000 $ 600,833 3 7 33 319 98.9% 43.8% 11.8% -25.0% 250.0% 65.0% Number of properties actively for
Scotts Valley $ 432,518 $ 432,518 2 11 3 44 98.4% 20.1% 20.1% 100.0% 120.0% 0.0% sale as of the last day of the month.
Santa Cruz $ 400,000 $ 336,667 3 16 55 532 98.0% 6.7% -16.4% -70.0% -23.8% -1.8%
Watsonv ille $ 239,000 $ 209,980 5 20 19 110 102.1% 19.7% 0.2% -28.6% 0.0% 111.1% Page 3
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
Santa Cruz County

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

American Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
(831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Go online to see the full report

with the city by city breakdown:

http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Price/Listing Price Ratio
101%

100%

99%

98%

97%

96%

95%
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASON
6 7 8 9 0
© 2010 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County Homes - Sales, Pending & Days of Inventory

(3-month moving average)
400 500
Peak of buyers Market
350 450
Days of Inventory

400
Sales & Pending

300
350
250 300
200 250
150 200
150
100
100
50 50
0 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASON
6 7 8 9 0

This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.