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Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
January 2020
Sales
Sales grew annually at double digits
for 1st time in 3 years
California, January 2020 Sales: 395,550 Units, 10.3% YTD, 10.3% YTY
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
California home sales continue to improve
25%
20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
15%
10.3%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
10%
20%
30%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Bay Area
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Bay Area sales growth had drastic halt
Jan-17
6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
Sep-19
Jan-20
5
-1.1%
page
So. California sales continued growth
at double digit pace
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20% 15.7%
YoY % chg.
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
Central Valley sales growth slowed
10% 9.5%
YoY % chg.
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
Sales up except at the bottom end of the market
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
S.F. Bay
Southern Area
California 15%
50%
20%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
15% 14.6%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
62%
56%
50%
25% 25%23%
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
Condo/Townhome median price growth speeds up
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
Condo/Townhome median price
grew from last year
California, January 2019: $435,000, January 2020: $467,000
$600,000
$500,000
Median Price
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Mar-06
May-07
Dec-07
Mar-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jan-05
Oct-06
Jul-08
Jan-12
Oct-13
Jul-15
Jan-19
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Aug-05
Feb-09
Sep-09
Aug-12
Feb-16
Sep-16
Aug-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Price/Square Foot growth rate slowed
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
Price/Square Foot: Condo/Townhome vs. SFH
$400
$350
$300
$250 $275
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
Sales price-to-list Price ratio up from last year
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
Growth of list price vs. sales price
40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
Price grew in all percentiles
4%
2%
0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
-5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
0-20
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
20-40
Oct-18
Nov-18
40-60
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
60-80
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
80-100
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Top end of the market price growth moderates
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Price
Dec-19
Jan-20
22
page
Market Velocity
50.0%
-50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
-150.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Price Growth
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
23
YTY% Chg.
5% 7.1%
3%
0%
2% -5% -3.2%
-10%
1%
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
0%
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
10%
7.1%
5%
0%
-3.2%
-5%
-10%
Mar-16
May-16
Mar-17
May-17
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Sep-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Nov-17
Sep-18
Nov-18
Sep-19
Nov-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
Mortgage payment slightly cheaper
$2,500
Mortgage Payment
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
SERIES: Mortgage Payment of Existing SFH page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
Monthly mortgage: slightly more affordable
Los Angeles
$1,960 $2,020 -3.0%
Metropolitan Area
Los Angeles
$107,700 $99,890 7.8%
Metropolitan Area
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Supply further constrained at every price level
January 2020
0% Active Listing
-0.3%
YTY % Change
-10%
-20% -17.4%
-30% -26.9%
-31.6% -29.5% -29.3%
-32.8%
-40%
6.0
5.0
4.0 3.5
3.0 3.0
2.7
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
Inventory Index tighter than last year
at every price bucket of the market
California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment
18 15.7
Months of Supply
16
14 11.9
12
10 9.1
8 7.1 7.4
6.4 4.6 3.4
6 4.4 5.2 4.4 4.9
3.93.4 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.9
4 3.0 3.0
2
0
Jan-19 Jan-20
Mar-16
May-16
Mar-17
May-17
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-19
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Sep-15
Nov-15
Sep-16
Nov-16
Sep-17
Nov-17
Sep-18
Nov-18
Sep-19
Nov-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
Housing supply tightened up in all regions
Jan-19 Jan-20
30,000 27,559
25,000
Active Listings
20,000 18,405
15,000
10,000 9,460
7,052
5,260 3,844
5,000
2,182 1,855
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
Inventory did not get replenished
January 2020
Sales Active Listings
20% 15.7%
9.5% 10.8%
Year-to-Year % Chg
10%
0%
-1.1%
-10%
-20% -15.0%
60
50
38.0
40
31.0
30
20
10
0
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-17
Sep-19
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
41
Median time on market down except top percentiles
38 39 3737 38 37
40 36 3736
33 32 3434
28 29 28 28 30
30
20
10
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Jan-19 Jan-20
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Dec-11
May-12
Mar-13
Dec-16
May-17
Mar-18
Jan-09
Jul-11
Oct-12
Jan-14
Jul-16
Oct-17
Jan-19
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Aug-13
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Aug-18
Jun-19
Nov-19
Listing Price Sales Price
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 30.2%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
11/1/2010
12/1/2012
10/1/2013
11/1/2015
12/1/2017
10/1/2018
1/1/2010
6/1/2010
4/1/2011
9/1/2011
2/1/2012
7/1/2012
5/1/2013
3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
5/1/2018
3/1/2019
8/1/2019
1/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
45
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
11/1/2016
11/1/2017
11/1/2018
11/1/2019
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
9/1/2019
1/1/2020
Share Reduced Median Reduction