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2017
Although estimates vary significantly due to the definition In longer term operations, the implication of power
of connections, it is evident that the projected growth in consumption to battery life is what matters the most. High
IoT connections (Internet of Things) has the potential to power consumption affects both the capacity and lifetime
transform a number of markets. In the context of satellite of the device. Higher energy demands also have an
communication technology choices, the global satellite impact on deployments that require unattended battery-
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) based operation.
market will reach 5.8 million in-service satellite M2M/IoT
terminals by 2023. Right now, these terminals correspond Scalability is an issue as the existing satellite networks
to more than $1.5 billion in annual revenues1 . This is are not set up to support hundreds of millions of direct
small compared to the scale of connections generally: connections. For commercial applications that require
current estimates point to over 6 billion connected things very low end device costs, low power consumption and
worldwide in 2016. These are forecast to grow to 25 billion low maintenance costs, the existing means of direct to
by 2020.2 Cisco projects that the figure could be as high satellite to device connections are not suitable. Only few
as 50 billion by 20203. companies such as ORBCOMM are looking to explore
these types of connections.
McKinsey highlights the importance of demonstrating the
application and potential of IoT in the context of various In the consumer IoT market the use of direct satellite to
settings - the environments within which systems are device connections is still viable due to price points and
deployed4. This allows the estimates of potential value of more relaxed energy constraints (frequent recharging
application beyond industry revenue because it includes is possible). The most common products are location
the value captured by customers and consumers as well tracking devices e.g. GPS sports trackers, most notably
as the wider economic benefits. Globalstar SPOT, DeLorme InReach, and new competitors
and products that will come along in the future. One of
The basic requirements of the IoT are that all devices the primary functions of these devices is location tracking
need to be connected wherever they happen to be. for consumers, even though other functions such as
While Wi-Fi deployments, Bluetooth and terrestrial GSM social media usage is typically included, especially with
networks are able to support many IoT applications, future generations of products. The target market for
these network services cannot provide the ubiquitous and such devices is outdoor activities, emergency backup and
seamless coverage of satellites. In 2015, 95% of the global usage in private vessels, which are expected to be used
population live within coverage of a 2G mobile network, in regions where there is no terrestrial network coverage,
with 69% within a 3G network5. However, there are many such as in mountainous terrain, in remote regions, and in
sparsely populated areas with important economic offshore waters.
activities suited for IoT related services, which do not have
mobile terrestrial coverage or other forms of connectivity. The challenge for satellite operators and service providers
The ultimate success of global IoT coverage will depend will be reaching price points and form factors palatable
on the active support of satellite networks, such as the to casual outdoor enthusiasts, without reducing ARPU
L-band (antenna) services. Satellite technology serves as a from existing higher value customers. This involves limiting
key enabler to transform IoT connectivity across industries feature sets to consumers such as basic location tracking
and geographical borders. The applications range from and social media, while avoiding high level data analytics.
oil and gas, to mining, consumers and transportation. Nonetheless, consumer IoT applications remain a niche
Connecting individual IoT devices via satellites is currently market when compared to the much larger enterprise IoT
facing several challenges such as a high cost of modules market, and it is these enterprise applications that should be
and high power consumption. the primary focus for operators and service providers alike.
1
NSR: M2M and IoT via satellite, 7th Edition 4
McKinsey & Company (2015) ‘The Internet of Things: Mapping The Value
2
Cisco® Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Beyond The Hype’ (available at http://www.mckinsey.com/business-
Update, 2016–2021 White Paper functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-internet-of-things-the-value-
3
ITU/Cisco (2016) ‘Harnessing the Internet of Things for Global of-digitizing-the-physical-world)
Development’ (available at http://www.itu.int/en/action/broadband/ 5
ITU (2016) ‘ICT Facts and Figures’ (available at https://www.itu.int/en/
Documents/Harnessing-IoT-Global-Development.pdf) ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFactsFigures2015.pdf)
Bottom line: IoT devices can leverage the low- New business models may yet emerge, where satellite
power, low-cost features of LPWA, omitting battery operators provide an end-to-end network and charge per
life constraints that increase the device cost. This will connected LPWA device, and not per data transmitted over
ultimately give a raise to a means of new, diverse the satellite link. New solutions for direct satellite LPWA
business models. communications span ultra-narrow band connectivity,
supporting millions of devices at low cost, low power and
with direct connection to IoT end devices. These solutions
With existing Internet giants such as Facebook, Google, will bring about higher autonomy of IoT end devices.
Skype, LinkedIn and the proliferation of so many devices Adoption of more automated solutions of terrestrial
globally, the demand for bandwidth for data has grown infrastructure, and consequently its maintenance, means
exponentially. For example, Apple has developed an no additional cost and greater freedom when it comes to
entirely new revenue stream for the sale of applications mobile networks and cases, where a terrestrial roll-out
— this is generating more than $4bn in revenue. The and access to sites is proving difficult.
business cases of pure Internet companies are based on
the ability of their customers to have access to high-speed
Internet. And these are business models that many IoT Bottom line: In the longer term, the distribution of new
devices manufacturers are aiming towards. narrow band satellite communication technologies will
Whilst the business models create tremendous allow for direct connection of millions of IoT devices in
opportunities, these are also an incredible strain for the a resource efficient way.
mobile operators and communication service providers
6
In-Stat. (http://www.in-stat.com/press.asp?ID=2899&sku=IN1004716GW)
8
Structural Health Monitoring Market by Solutions (Hardware: Sensors,
Data Acquisition System; Software & Services), Technology (Wired
and Wireless), End Users and Geography - Global Forecast to 2022
(summary available at www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/
structural-health-monitoring-market-101431220.html)
9
NSR: M2M and IoT via satellite, 7th Edition
10
Momentum (2014) ‘Eighteen critical success factors for deploying 12
International Maritime Organisation (2010) ‘International Shipping
telemedicine’ (available at http://www.telemedicine-momentum.eu/18- Facts and Figures – Information Resources on Trade, Safety, Security,
factors/) Environment’ (available at www.imo.org/en/KnowledgeCentre/
11
Weiser et al (2008) ‘An estimation of the global volume of surgery: ShipsAndShippingFactsAndFigures/Statisticalresources/Documents/
a modelling strategy based on available data’ Lancet. 2008 Jul IMO%20Performance%20indicators%20C_105-3(a)-1[1].pdf
12;372(9633):139-44 (abstract available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih. 13 NSR: M2M and IoT via satellite, 7th Edition
gov/pubmed/18582931)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
With a compelling value proposition, NSR expects new generation network will provide a further boost to demand
devices and players to enter the market, with new form for IoT. Churn nevertheless remains an issue for operators,
factors to drive additional unit sales and revenues driven with aggressive promotions in recent years driving up
by new features and higher bandwidth requirements. usage but increasing levels of churn, ultimately benefiting
New levels of connectivity such as Globalstar’s second the end consumer but harming operator revenues.
15
http://www.sat4m2m.com/
16
http://www.keplercommunications.com/
17
NSR: M2M and IoT via satellite, 7th Edition
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2013
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
The backhaul of LPWA networks will bring additional considering the ~ $1 per month, or even lower ARPU,
revenue streams for satellite operators, but the on LPWA networks. Some operators are entering the
overall market of general backhaul will be limited to market now to get a first mover advantage on backhaul
approximately $5 million by 2025 in retail revenues. This networks. IoT platform provider Stream Technologies and
will be economical on both Ku-band and MSS, due to the the LoRa Alliance18 are delivering reliable, near real-time
very small bandwidth requirements on LPWA networks communications for a global connectivity over Iridium’
(typically in the order of 10 bytes). However, large mesh architecture.
numbers of IoT devices will be required to turn a profit,
18
https://www.lora-alliance.org
100%
13.2 24.0
21.1 20.6 38.8 40.2
90%
109.3 261.8
80% 95
292.4
70%
131.8
318.5
60%
146.3
265.1
50%
40%
NAM EU
30%
LAM ASIA
20%
MEA AOR
10%
POR IOR
0%
2013 2023
High cost of connectivity and communication and devices, application protocols and security, prevent
economies of scale for large deployments over wide companies from easily aggregating data across
areas networks are key barriers for self-sustaining heterogeneous networks. This model tends to result in
adoption to create further growth. There remain a number prohibitive operational and infrastructure expenses which
of other well-established problems: consequently hinder adoption of new solutions.
Security issues - While in the past all cyber attacks Market dynamics
on satellites were unsuccessful, firms like Intelsat
have signalled a dramatic jump in DDoS threats (60 Competition within the satellite industry continues to be
percent from 2015 to 2016), especially as the industry strong in the market place. MSS L-band operators support
moves toward IP infrastructure, hybrid networks and the vast majority of units – up to 90%. They are competing
cloud-based solutions. The massive amount of high- against VSATs, which supply more to larger capital
throughput satellites and time spent on connected intensive oil and gas, transportation, cargo and green
devices means the scale of threats grows ever faster. energy sectors, for both fixed and mobile tracking and
Reliable solutions are missing that would effectively monitoring products.
patch vulnerabilities across different components that
make up the entire ecosystem. Rapid population growth is continuing to drive business
growth worldwide. M2M/IoT services generally have the
Cost-prohibitive economics - In the process of highest margins of any other services offered, with cost
integration, the onboarding and management of per bit orders of a magnitude higher than consumer
networks remains expensive and inefficient particularly data products. NSR expects terrestrial based pricing to
at large scale. A new class of services such as edge drop significantly as operators move towards cost-based
infrastructure, software platforms and technology pricing, following increased competition and a push for
ecosystems is required to transform operational players to move into the high-margin M2M/IoT space.
experiences and mitigate the security, cost and The North American region continues to dominate in
complexity concerns. terms of both revenues and in-service units. The growth
Old model for best practices - For instance, more is contingent upon reliable, low-cost access to space.
innovative approaches to a large number of projects According to Airbus, “currently a small satellite provider is
in smart farming will create a new model for best at the mercy of a bigger satellite (the main customer)”. The
practices in agriculture. It will also become an excellent increased spread of spaceports will catalyse the market
go-to-market strategy of what companies will be able for low-cost access to space, running parallel with the
to do across many other verticals. Once taken up, these development of smaller satellites.
models should significantly shorten deployment times
and simplify the network architecture which will also The projected highest growth space markets over the
improve security. next two decades are in satellite-derived services and
applications using data, services and infrastructure19. Earth
Absence of a holistic solution - Right now IoT sensor observation data are increasingly being used to assist
networks do not come in a position of readiness with maritime surveillance, flood modelling and response,
everywhere to reach the most remote “internet environmental and agricultural monitoring and natural
deserts”. A combination of global satellite network and resource assessment. Broadcasting direct-to-home (DTH)
cloud-based IoT platform that would allow enterprises satellite TV channels via SES satellites currently presents
to realise the full benefit of M2M/IoT is emerging. many high growth opportunities to deliver content to
However, the pace by which technology advances is remote locations and islands that are underserved by
unprecedented, and solutions must be based on very terrestrial networks.
forward thinking in how to effectively overcome all
these barriers. However, there needs to be public sector support and
promotion for the adoption and use of these services so
It is challenging for companies trying to mix solutions that UK can capitalise on “high-value priority markets”, i.e.
from multiple vendors to interconnect and manage maritime surveillance, and satellite broadband in order to
different systems. The diversity and variation of IoT deliver £30 billion per annum of new applications.
19
Space Innovation and Growth Strategy 2014–2030
The M2M/IoT has been identified as a strategic area of Automation of these industries in developed regions has
growth for the UK with large new markets opening up, already advanced, and so the highest growth potential
representing real high-growth investment opportunities. It will remain in developing regions working towards better
will benefit from a thriving ecosystem, including a leading technology capabilities. For low bandwidth applications
research infrastructure, universities, and a thriving pool such as meter readings, satellite is an excellent fit,
of new business start-ups. The UK is already a leader especially in developing regions where it provides instant
in the development of smart, space-based radars for infrastructure that is not reliant on patchy terrestrial
maritime surveillance. This technology is used to ensure infrastructure. Greater levels of automation in these
sustainable fishing, restoring endangered fish stocks, regions will be achieved through better data extraction
protecting against illegal fishing and ensuring global and management with immediate impact on applications
ocean resources are protected for future generations. such as crop growth monitoring and disease prediction,
productivity through enhanced yields, management of
Deploying satellite connectivity to complement terrestrial shortfalls, and reduced use of fuel and fertilisers.
networks for IoT applications transforms the IoT in to the
“Internet of Everything Everywhere.” The enabling factors Technology choices are sometimes contingent on what,
of the IoEE through satellite are: how, and how much spectrum is made available21. The
co-existence of multiple networks within a territory might
(i) the interoperability between satellite systems and be useful for M2M/IoT; however different countries have
sensors and developed different guidelines on how to govern the data
management. Possibly availability of White Space will
(ii) the support of IPv6 over satellite20.
have an effect on how M2M/IoT evolves over the near
It will be important for the UK to develop and tune the
future.
supply chain. The UK has started to supply equipment
and platform building blocks for satellite based IoT
through €18 million ESA contract with Airbus and Thales
Alenia Space, using their Neosat product lines. The ESA
forecasts that there will be €30 billion worth of satellites
built before 2030, with Neosat forming a significant
portion of that new market, representing a potential
return for UK companies of billions of Euros.
20
Satellite Communications Supporting Internet of Remote Things, available
from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282619383_Satellite_
Communications_Supporting_Internet_of_Remote_Things
21
Machina Research ‘M2M & IoT Regulatory Profile’