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1Department of Technology Civil, Sarhad University of Science & Information Technology, Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan
2Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan
Abstract: Construction industry considers risk management as a critical management process, aiming to realize the
project objectives in terms of time, cost, safety, quality, and sustainable environment. The construction projects are
initiated in environments that consist of various interconnected activities, therefore, risk and uncertainty are
always there. To this aim, a methodology was developed to discover and analyze the key risk factors, risk
prevention and mitigation methods and risk analysis techniques from perception of contractors and owners in
Pakistan. Questionnaire was designed and distributed among contractors and owners working on variety of
projects. To achieve the objectives, the data was collected from 311 contractors and 190 owners. The analysis
reveals that the most severe risk factors according to perspective of owner is defective design and not coordinated
design, while most severe risk according to contractor is financial failure and awarding design to unqualified
designers. Furthermore, the owners and contractors tend to consider the subjective judgment as the most effective
way of risk prevention method. According to the contractors’ and owners perspective, close supervision of the
subordinates, and increase in the working hours was the mainly effective mitigative technique for minimizing
negative impacts. The risk analysis techniques used by the contractors and owners are the direct judgment using
experience and personal skills.
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sites is also major risk involved in the construction will be discovered in Pakistan’s construction
of buildings, roads etc. As construction is industry and the significance of other factors such as
environment of hazardous in many aspects, the severity is analyzed, thereby providing sensible
accidents it experiences may have different severity suggestions toward updating the risk management
levels, resulting in some major and minor injuries process in construction industry and raises the
with even some resulting in fatality. The result of performance of acquiring firms as well as owners in
accidents are delays in construction, cost overrun the construction industry of Pakistan. The study will
and also cost the organization’s reputation, which be prolonged for an improved understanding of the
results in losing the confidence among workforce risk factors faced by contractors and owners on daily
internationally. Now due to authorities actions to basis. The Investigation of the severity of risks as per
ensure the safety standards, resulted in increased opinions of the owners and the contractors, the
performance of construction industry (Wang et examination of efficiency of risk management
al.,2006). Construction industry in Lithuania has techniques that are used by contractors and owners.
turnover of EUR 1.91 billion, considered as one the Based on the literature review and expert opinion
largest industries in of Lithuania, is the source of the identified risk factors are shown in Table 1.
employment 94 thousand workers in 2011. The literature in this regard is nearly sufficient
Unfortunately, health and safety issues are also with models that assess and measure risk or
there. There are more fatalities and injuries than any methods which managers can employ to manage the
other industry. Statistic shows that in 2011 the risks. However, there are two major gaps in the
number of number of construction workers killed existing methods, as pointed out by (Schieg, 2007).
are 13 compared to 7and 4 industrial and First of all, most of the methods are based on solid
agricultural workers respectively. While the number statistics and past data like Monte Carlo simulation
of fatalities increased by twice than 2010 i.e. from 6 including network analysis and other factors
to 13 fatalities from 2010 (Šukys et al., 2011). (Dawood, 1998), and also matrix propagation
Theoretical risk analysis techniques for the method (Tüysüz & Kahraman, 2006). Manager may
construction industry have been established from experience short of data if the project is done in new
number of years, but very rarely applied in real life environment with new setting, and also many
except for the few areas and few industries in multi- problems are ill-defined and imprecise, which these
disciplinary clients in the private sector (Perry & methods fail to address. Secondly, there always has
Hayes, 1985). The risk factors for all the projects been a discrepancy between risk analysis and risk
may be similar for the local or international projects. management. For example, Analytic Hierarchy
The risk factors include reduced detail design, Process (AHP) is used to identify the risks and divide
insufficient quality check and defective materials the projects as high, medium and low risk (Dey,
which results in defective work. The factors for plan 2010), but no response to diminish risks have been
delays are deficient design, bad weather, late suggested. Since there is a weak link between risk
construction site possession, fluctuation in labor and analysis and risk management, a need for an
materials supply, unforeseen ground conditions and integrated framework which addresses both the
incompetent connections and coordination with the aspects is aspired. (Dey, 2002, 2006) has stressed on
involved parties. All these risk factors can be the need for such a framework over several
addressed by a proper project management, but due publications. (Cho et al., 2002; Kangari & Riggs,
to unique nature of projects the risks may vary for 1989; Zeng et al., 2007) incorporated fuzzy theory in
each project due to which it is difficult to assess risk assessment. Other models used in assessment
these risks in advance. (Zhi, 1995). Any sort of are sensitivity analysis(White, 1995), fault tree
construction project is always prone to risks and analysis (Abdelgawad & Fayek, 2010), and critical
abundant work has been carried on it in the path methods(Nasir et al., 2003) etc.
developed countries, however, in the context of To address these gaps, this study aim to develop
developing countries such as Pakistan, are still risk management framework for Pakistan’s
struggling to quench the research gaps in risk construction industry, which combines risk analysis
perspective of a construction industry (Khan, 2013). and risk management while eliminating the need for
Pakistan’s construction companies industry is previous data and uses the managers’ expertise and
largely impacted by the miscalculation of the intuition as a substitute. The framework, though
vulnerable risk, and lack of understanding regarding reliant on intuition, should be objective, precise and
the risk management including lack of proper easy to apply. The paper first presents a literature
identification, analysis and assessment of risk. review on the risk factors and risk management
According to Nawaz et al. (2019) there is substantial models or tools already available. Next, it elaborates
requirement in the local environment of Pakistan to the tools and methods reviewed, which form the
implement and associate the systematic basis for the new framework, propose the new
methodology of risk management, so that framework to address the problems associated with
individually and collectively the threats of risk can the existing models. Finally, the paper provides a
be minimized. There is a considerable need of detailed discussion on the framework and concludes
standards for risk management in the construction with recommendations on the basis of study that will
industry that need to be developed. Therefore, the assist contractors and owners of projects to
research has a lot of significance as the risk factors effectively manage the common risks.
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(El-Sayegh, 2008)
(Paslawski, 2008)
(Liu et al., 2016)
Ismail, 2014)
2014)
2011)
2017)
Authors
Risk
Risk Factors
Parameters
Accidents at site
Physical Supplies
Varied labor
Acts of good
Environmenta Site not accessible
l Condition of the weather
Differing site situations
Defect in design
Design not coordinated properly
Design incorrect quantities
Lack of consistency
Awarding design
Material, Labor & equipment
productivity
Logistics
Defining scope of work
precision of project plan
Inflation
Financial
Delayed payment
Pakistan construction industry is highly impacted from owner’s and contractor’s perspective
by the miscalculation of the risks, and lack of and verify the importance of every factor in terms of
understanding regarding the risk management severity and to develop a risk management strategy.
including lack of proper recognition, analysis and Following are the objectives of the study:
evaluation of risk. In Pakistan very little research
have been carried out on risks in construction This research is aimed to determine the key risk
projects. (Iqbal et al., 2015) carried out a study factors in the construction industry of Pakistan,
regarding risk factors in construction industry of area of focus is Peshawar.
Pakistan, incorporating different risks i-e site The Investigation of the severity of risks as per
accidents, unforeseen site condition, corruption and opinions of the owners and the contractors.
bribery at sites in total of 37 factors along with two The examination of risk management techniques
types of risk management techniques risk preventive that are used by contractors and owners.
techniques. Though, mitigation study of risk was To conclude and give recommendations in light of
undermined in their work (Choudhry et al., 2014) the study that will help contractors and owners of
carried out study on identification of risk projects to effectively manage common risks.
management systems in construction projects in
Pakistan. However, their study is limited to 2. Materials and methods
identification and quantification on bridge
construction and also lacks a proper framework The following methodology is deployed to meet
endorsing risk prevention and mitigation. (Nawaz et the research objectives. As presented in Fig. 1,
al., 2019), also developed a frame work for risk context establishment/ literature of the state-of-the-
management in construction industry of Pakistan, art research is the foundation, which is to be kept in
but the research was limited to success factors and loop during the whole research. This leads to a bi-
risk management techniques solely based on phased study in which the first phase consist of risk
contractor’s perspective. In light of the above identification and its analysis through measuring the
discussion on gap our research has extended scope severity levels, whilst the second phase derives from
taking into account: development of framework for the prior to model for the preventive and mitigative
effective risk management based model risk factors steps been undertaken.
(divided into 9 groups), risk preventive & mitigative
methods, and risk analysis techniques from 2.1. Respondents
perspective of contractors and owners.
Furthermore, the purpose of the research work is The targeted respondents for the present study
to determine the factors that contribute to risk in the were contractors and owners. Information regarding
construction industry of Pakistan. To address this contractors was extracted from Pakistan
purpose, the risk factors within the construction Engineering Council (PEC) website
industry of Pakistan will be discovered https://verification.pec.org.pk/COFirmList.
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Currently, there are 19,820 contractors owners, so the information were obtained through
registered with PEC and they are divided into personal contacts, contractors and consultants. The
different categories based on project cost limit, owners are classified as public (government) and
minimum requirement limit of engineers and private. The numbers of owners found were
financial soundness of contractors as shown in approximately 200 private and 295 public based on
Error! Reference source not found.. the project worth they conducting more than 1000
Unlike contractors as there are no such data million (Rs) and for private between 500 and 2000
available, which gives exact information about the million (Rs).
Context Establishment
Risk Evaluation
Levels Risk Mitigation
Supervision to Subordinates
Risk Severity
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2.2. Survey Instrument Wilk test were performed to ensure the normal
distribution of data. The data didn’t follow normal
In this research, the questionnaire deployed has distribution so non-parametric tests were performed
been adopted from (Mousa, 2005). The to further analyze the data. Kruskal-Wallis test was
questionnaire was divided in to three sections: performed to analyze whether there exists difference
in opinion between contractors and owner in raking
• The first section dealing with necessary significant factors. Severity of risk factors were
information regarding to the respondents and calculated using mean score, while risk preventative,
organization, such as designation, experience, mitigative methods and analysis technique were
number of employees and annual work volume. ranked based on % effectiveness
• The second section comprises of series of risk
factors, that belong to nine major groups i.e., 2.4.1. Demography of the respondents
environmental, design, Physical, political,
financial, legal, construction, logistics, and A total of 501 valid questionnaires out of 670
management risks. To take opinion of were received with average response rate of 75
respondents likert scale 1-10 (1-3 represents low percent as shown in Table 3. Hence, it is considered
risks, 4-7 represents medium risks, and 8-10 to be adequate for analysis as it is greater than
represents high risks) was adopted. This section required minimum sample size of 390. Error!
includes 36 risk factors and was finalized after Reference source not found. shows the
consultation with local experts from both demographic information of respondents. The
academia, and construction professionals. responses were recorded through personal
• The third section contains relative use of interview, electronic means and through courier
preventive methods, mitigative risk methods, and services.
risk technique based on five point likert scale 1-5
(1 Never, 2 rarely, 3 sometimes, 4 often, and 5 2.4.2. Reliability analysis
always).
Reliability provide internal consistency of data
2.3. Sample determination and selection that are collected based on scale, and provide the
amount of inter-correlation among the factors
The targeted populations of respondents were (Netemeyer et al., 2003). Cronbach Alpha (α) test
contractors registered with PEC and owners both was conducted to check reliability of collected data
public and private. Hence, a random sample was from contractors and owners. The α value for
needed to make sure to represent the sample of contractors and owners were 0.937 and 0.905, while
target respondents. Therefore, for sample size combined α value were 0.920, so these values are
determination Cochran formula (Cochran, 1977) is rationally higher than 0.7 which is the acceptable
used as shown in Eq. 1. value (Alaghbari et al., 2007). This shows that data
was highly reliable and suitable for further analysis.
𝑍2 ×𝑃×(1−𝑃) 𝑍2 ×𝑃×(1−𝑃)
𝑆𝑆 = ( )/(1 + ) (1)
𝐶2 𝑁𝐶 2
where: 2.4.3. Normality test
SS = Sample Size
Z = Z value (1.96 for 95% confidence interval) As the sample size is less than 2000, a Shaprio-
P = Percentage picking a choice (marginal error) Wilk test is performed to check the normal
N = Population size distribution of collected data (Royston, 1983).
C = Confidence Interval (0.05) Significance (sig.) value greater than 0.05 shows
evidence for normality. As shown in Error! Reference
As P value is unknown, so it is suggested to take it source not found., sig. values for each group of risk
as a conservative value of 0.50 (Cochran, 1977). The factors were less than 0.05, so data is not normally
population size determined for contractors were distributed. It further justified that non parametric
20,593 and for owners both private and public were test would be suitable for further analysis.
495, so this make total population size of 21,088.
Hence, Eq.1 was applied to reduce the population 2.4.4. Kruskal‒Wallis test
size and consider as representative of all
respondents. The desired minimum sample size Kruskal‒Wallis (Breslow, 1970) test was
calculated was approximately 390. To make conducted to check whether there exist difference in
response rate higher questionnaire were distributed opinion of contractor and owners on ranking of
to 670 respondents. The targeted respondents were significant risk factors in each risk group, risk
contractors of category CA, CB, C1, and owners. mitigation, preventive methods and analysis
techniques. Sig. value less than alpha value of 0.05
2.4. Analysis method shows variation in opinion. The test results as shown
in Error! Reference source not found. reveals that
Reliability of questionnaire instrument were except physical group factors there exist difference
analyzed through Cronbach’s alpha test. Shapiro of opinion between contractors and owner on
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Physical 0.024
Environmental 0.047 where, “a” is the weight assigned to each responses
Design 0.031 (1-5), f =frequency of each response, N =total
Logistics 0.002 number of responses.
Financial 0.041
Legal 0.031 3. Results
Construction 0.019
Political 0.017 This section presents and describes the current
Management 0.013 views of contractors and owners in Pakistan
concerning the severity of the identified 44 risk
Sig.value for physical group is 0.078, which factors divide into 9 groups as shown in Error!
greater alpha value of 0.05 therefore is insignificant Reference source not found..
and shows agreement on ranking of factors, while for
the rest of groups are less than 0.05 therefore is 3.1. Physical group
significant and shows difference of opinion on
ranking of significant factors as evident from ranking Results established that the provision of
in Table 6. materials that are defective is the most severe
hazard in the physical group with mean score of
2.4.5. Ranking of factors 5.95, followed by occurrence of accidents (5.625),
and variations in labor and equipment productivity
The severity of identified risk factors were (4.625).
ranked according mean score (Alaghbari et al., 2007) These results point to the concerns of contractors
as shown in Eq. 2. as well as owners about the fitness of materials and
∑ 𝑓×𝑠
safety actions for construction projects, this outcome
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 = (10 − ) (1 ≤ 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 ≤ 10) (2) is supported by the results of (Ahmed et al. 1999)
𝑁
both contractors and owners agree upon occurrence
where, f is the frequency of responses to each of accidents and delivery of defective materials as
scoring (1-10), s is the score on scale (ranges from 1 the most severe risks in the physical group. Accident
to 10)given to each factor by the respondents, and N and site safety are amongst the top significant risks
is the total number of responses concerning that which are typically disregarded in Pakistan but are
factor the main setback according to this survey and must
Risk preventative, mitigative methods and be appropriately addressed.
analysis technique were ranked based on
%effectiveness (%frequency index) (Le-Hoai et al.,
2008), which is calculated as shown in Eq. 3.
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Environmental
Construction
Management
Risk Groups
Financial
Logistics
Physical
Political
Design
Legal
Chi-
18.373 38.040 38.279 38.457 38.235 38.29 38.198 38.401 38.261
Square
sig. value .078 .00272 .0019 .0002 .0023 .0017 .0025 .0005 .0020
Risk Preventive Analysis
Mitigation Methods Technique
Chi-
36.012 36.231 36.193
Square
sig. value .0032 .0021 .0025
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matter of concern for the owners (severity 5.675). in the construction project. The consequence of poor
According to contractors in the management risks, communications for an organization is that
the highest risk is that of poor communication employees will misjudge management decisions or
between different parties (severity 5.225). Lack of respond to them in a way that was not deliberated.
proper coordination with the subordinates is also a Equally, managers will misread the prerequisites of
matter of concern for the contractors (severity employees and will consequently suffer from lower
4.825) and information unavailability has 138 performance and a higher turnover of staff.
weighted score and 3.45 severity being the risk of Construction projects are greatly affected by
lowest concern. Improper communication has a lot environmental factors. The environmental effects on
of effects and consequences on construction projects the Project could include: reduced visibility and
such as cost overruns, time dealys, disputes and inability to maneuver construction and operation
finally project failure. It also found that highly instrumentation, delays in receipt of materials
effective communication can attain good cost and and/or provides (e.g., construction materials,
time management in production of flourishing reagents) and/or in delivering merchandise, changes
projects. to the power of employees to access the positioning
(e.g., if a road were to scrub out), injury to
3.9. Overall risk significance from perspective of infrastructure, raised structural loading, and/or loss
contractors and owners of electric power leading to potential loss of
production.
The results show that medium as well as high risk Financial failures greatly impact construction
were there from contractors’ point of view. projects. Possible solutions in mitigating financial-
According to the results, the highest risks of financial related delay like to structure the market, to not over
failure (Severity = 8.45), defective design (severity develop, to conduct coaching on cash flow
8.2) followed by awarding design to the unqualified management, right use of risk management, to be
designers (severity = 7.35). The lowest risk is of sensible in acceptance of the contract, to settle on a
change order negotiation (severity 3.025) and decent remunerator, and to use payment bond with
ambiguous planning due to project complexity bank and consumer were urged to purchasers and
(severity 3.075). contractors, severally.
According to the owners’ perspective, the highest Our results are supported by the results of
risk is of not coordinated design (severity = 7.925) (Kartam and Kartam, 2001), claiming that supply of
and not defective design (Severity = 6.075). The defective materials is accepted as a risk by the
lowest risk according to the perspective of owners is contractors. The same allocation has also been
of change order negotiation (severity = 3.025) and accepted by the contractors from Hong Kong
changes in work (severity = 3.25). (Ahmed et al., 1999). The results of environmental
factors i.e., difficulty in access to site is supported by
4. Discussion the results of the research of (Kartam and Kartam,
2001). The contractors on the other hand also tend
This research provides insights about the to be worried about the defective design as argued
perception of contractors and owners towards by (De Lemos et al., 2004; Koushki et al., 2005).
different types of risks that construction industry Contractors also tend to be worried about poor
face in Pakistan. There were 36 risks included in the communications and unavailability of labor,
questionnaire. The significant risks have been materials as it is related to the political situations.
identified a) defective design; b) not coordinated occurrence of accidents due to poor site safety
design; c) occurrence of accidents during conditions are also among the significant risks which
construction; d) varied labor and equipment is typically neglected in our country Pakistan but are
productivity; e) weak communication among the major source of postponement as per this survey
involved parties; f) Project design by incompetent and have to be given proper attention., client and
designers; g) environmental factors; h)lack of contractor must also take care to advance safety on
consistency; i) coordination with subcontractors; j) sites and affecting the projects in a positive way all
shortage/delay of material supply and; L) financial these findings are also supported by (Iqbal et al.,
failure. 2015). (Hallaq and Raouf, 2003) argues that there
Varied equipment and labour output is also a are so many reasons that the contractors can
significant risk in construction projects. Good project financially fail, which include lack of capital amount,
management in construction should smartly pursue lack of relevant experience, depending on the banks,
the economical utilization of labor, material and low profit margin, closure and awarding contracts to
instruments. Improvement of labor productivity the lowest price.(Hallaq and Raouf, 2003) also
ought to be significant and continual concern of the argues that greater than 80 percent of the failures
construction firms who are accountable for happened due to the economic failure. Moreover, if
construction projects. Material handling, which any kind of shortage in market occurs then prices of
incorporates procurement, inventory, workshop materials also increases (Ahmed et al., 1999).
fabrication needs special attention for price Therefore, our results are in line with the results of
reduction. Another major risk is improper (Hallaq and Raouf, 2003). Contractors also argue
communication between involved technical groups that delayed payments by the owners also causes
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trouble and this is supported by the study of (Kartam is subjective judgment (80%) followed by the
and Kartam, 2001). The delayed resolution of updated project information (77.5%). The least
dispute also needs to be addressed as this creates effective method considered by the contractors’ is
ambiguity in the work legislations and it also utilization of a quantitative risk analysis technique
enhances difficulty in getting permits. The (47.5%).
construction group risks are in line with the findings
of (Ahmed et al., 1999). Political risks also tend to be 4.2. Risk mitigative methods adopted by
significant due to the unstable condition in the contractors and Owners
country.
Owner’s also consider design risks as significant Conferring to Fig. 3, according to the contractors’
risks and these results are supported by research perspective, close supervision of the subordinates
work of (Ahmed et al., 1999; De Lemos et al., 2004; was the mainly effective mitigative technique for
Shen, 1997). If a rush design is given then it gives minimizing negative impacts. Second most effective
rise to serious risks and the owners tend to have method is increase in the working hours. Increasing
problems. This means that there is a need of working hours helps in speeding up the processes.
innovative contract methods through, which the The rarely used mitigative method was of change in
allocation of risks can be done appropriately so that the construction method (60%). The six mitigate
the parties are able to handle them. methods are presented in the Fig. 3. The first
Risk management in construction isn't restricted mitigative technique suggested by the owners is
to noting down all the execs and cons or put a label close supervision to the subordinates for
‘negative risk’ on every troubling event. Management minimization of the unproductive work (92.5%)
could be a sophisticated, lasting and comprehensive whereas the last method suggested is the change in
method that begins before the investment and construction methods (60%). Coordination with the
generally lasts even once the completion of project. sub-contractors is also considered as an efficient
To sanely manage risk doesn't mean to stay aloof mitigative method by the owners (85%)
from it's however to acknowledge it properly and
direct all connected opportunities and hazards this is 4.3. Risk analysis techniques adopted by
also supported by (Szymański, 2017). contractors and owners
4.1. Risk Preventive actions adopted by The risk analysis techniques used by the
contractors and owners contractors as revealed in Fig. 4, the most is the
direct judgment using experience and personal skills
The preventive actions from owners’ perspective (90%) followed by comparing analysis (82.5%).
are shown in Fig. 2. Owners tend to consider the Simulation analysis is barely used by the contractors.
subjective judgment as the most effective way. Next, Owners also tend to use direct judgment the most
owners consider getting up to date information (95%) followed by comparing and probability
regarding the project necessary and essential. analysis (75%). Simulation analysis is the least used
Owners consider shift or sharing risk with other analysis technique (25%).
parties as the least efficient preventive action.
The contractors’ perspective is same as owners’
perspective as the most effective method considered
Preventive Actions
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Owner Contractor
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Mitigative Methods
Owner Contractor
Analysis Techniques
Sensitivity analysis
Expert systems
Probability analysis
Comparing analysis
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Owner Contractor
-
Fig. 4: Risk analysis techniques adopted by contractors and owners
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