Table 1.

Decision process for the commercialization of tha product

High
Demand Low average
medium -
Decision alternative low - - utility
utility
utility demand
demand
Manufacture 124 138 150
Subcontract 129 143 167
Buy 122 148 169
Lease 116 152 158
Leasing 119 131 167
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0.25 0.3 0.3
B) favorable 0.25 0.35 0.3
unfavorable 0.75 0.65 0.7

Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a

A)
better estimate of the demand.
EVPI 18.7

A test market study of potential product demand is

B) expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U)
condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:
P(F/low) = 0,25 P(D/low) = 0,75
P(F/low average) = 0,35 P(D/low average) = 0,65
P(F/high medium) = 0,3 P(D/high medium) = 0,7
P(F/high) = 0,32 P(D/high) = 0,68

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

ation of tha product

High - demand
utility

165
180
188
171
172
0.15
0.32
0.68

ompany should try to get a

f the demand.

ntial product demand is

le (F) or unfavorable (U)
ditional probabilities are:

t research information?
 Event Laplace Wald
Does not Fits Fits
Alternative Fits well Minimax
fit acceptably successfully
Technology 1 780 810 818 860 817 860

Technology 2 880 820 855 820 843.75 880

Technology 3 830 875 878 900 870.75 900

Technology 4 630 872 812 910 806 910

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of LAPLACE
0,70.

Savage
 Hurwicz Savage

0.7 630 810 812 820 Max

288 150 0 6 40 150

310 250 10 43 0 250

311 200 65 66 80 200

168 0 62 0 90 90

ethods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE. Hurwicz Alpha

Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.

PLAYER B Min
81 83 93 78 84 78
PLAYER A

81 78 85 85 85 78
83 91 80 86 81 80
89 83 85 93 83 83 Maximin
85 89 88 78 83 78
Max 89 91 93 93 85
Minimax

Minimax and maximin are not equals. NO SADDLE POINT.

 In order to determine the decision conditions in
the market, the Game Theory will be used, using
the graphical solution of the type (2 x N) to
estimate the strategy and value of the game for
the following data

PLAYER 2 1 pI+pII+pIII=1
ESTRATEGY
A B 2 pA+pB=1
I 85 91 pI 3 EVI=85*(1-pB)+91*pB
PLAYER 1

II 78 82 pII 4 EVII=78*(1-pB)+82*pB

III 67 72 pIII 5 EVIII=67*(1-pB)+72*pB

pA pB
Valor del juego:
minmax en 3 EVI=6*0+85=85

100
95
90
minmax 85
85 , 0 80
75
70
65
60
pB=0 pB=1
 0≤pB≥1
pA=1-pB pB=0 pB=1
B)+91*pB = 85-85pB+91pB = 6pB+85 85 91

pB)+82*pB = 78-78pB+82pB = 4pB+78 78 82

-pB)+72*pB = 67-67pB+72pB = 5pB+67 67 72

85 Estrategia:
Player 1 (1,0,0)
Player 2 (1,0)

100
95
90
65
80
75
70
65
60
pB=1
 An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you have not had accident
US $ 6000 (State 1); If you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $ 6300 (St
first of the last two years US $ 5800 (State 3). The probabilities of the state according to historical d

STATES E1 E2 E3 1
6000 E1 0.25 0.35 0.4 2
6300 E2 0.28 0.42 0.3 3
5800 E3 0.2 0.15 0.65

E1 0,25x+0,28y+0,2z=x 0,25-0,25y-0,25z+0,28y+0,2z+y+z=1
E2 0,35x+0,42y+0,15z=y 0,35-0,35y-0,35z+0,42y+0,15z-y=0
E3 0,4x+0,3y+0,65z=z 0,4-0,4y-0,4z+0,3y+0,65z-z=0

0 x+y+z=1 x=1-y-z 3 en 1 1,03(4-7,5z)+0,95z=0,75

3,37=6,775z
z=0,497416974
E1 0.497417
E2 0.2693727 z en 3 y=4-7,5*0,497416974
E3 0.2332103 y=0,269372695

en 0 x=0,233210331

Determine what the average payment that the company will receive according to the data in the t

Pago promedio = 6034.17

 you have not had accidents the last two years are charged
will be charged $ 6300 (State 2). If you had accidents the
ate according to historical data of three years are:

NO accidente ultimos 2 años

Un accidente en cada uno de los últimos 2 años
Accidente el primero de los últimos 2 años

,28y+0,2z+y+z=1 1,03y+0,95z=0,75 1
,42y+0,15z-y=0 0,93y+0,2z=0,35 2
+0,65z-z=0 0,1y+0,75z=0,4 y=4-7,5z 3

5z)+0,95z=0,75 0,93(5-7,5z)+0,2z=0,35

-6.775 -4.3

0,497416974

rding to the data in the table.

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2, Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and
Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you continue to use the same brand or change it.

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0.16 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.21 0.18
BRAND 2 0.17 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.16 0.15
BRAND 3 0.2 0.21 0.19 0.15 0.13 0.12
BRAND 4 0.13 0.2 0.19 0.2 0.13 0.15
BRAND 5 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.21
BRAND 6 0.13 0.22 0.2 0.22 0.19 0.04

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (20%, 25%,
15%, 15%, 20% y 5%) during week 4.
3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and
nd or change it.

tively (20%, 25%,