STATISTIC

CHAPTER 5: PROBABILITY

Sample space : a set of all the possible outcomes of an experiment s = {………..}

Element : member of the sample space

Event : set of outcomes which satisfy a given condition

Subset of the sample space

Consists of the outcome of a probability experiment

Probability : ratio of the number of outcomes in the event to the number of outcomes in the
sample space.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛
P (E) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑛 (𝐸)
= 𝑛 (𝑆)

Outcome : possible result of an experiment

The result of single trial of probability experiment

Experiment : a process of carry out an activity and observing its result.

Venn diagram : a diagram that shows all possible logical relations between a finite collections of
different sets

Complementary event

P ( E’ ) = 1 – P ( E )

Probability rules

1. The probability of any event is a number 0 < P (E) < 1

2. If an event cannot occur P ( E ) = 0
3. If an event is certain P (E ) = 1
4. The sum of the probability of the outcomes in the sample space is 1

Example

Write down the sample space of the experiment:-

1. Answer a true/ false question

S = { true, false }

2. Toss one coin.

S = { Head, tail }

3. Toss 3 coins / toss 1 coin 3 time

S = { HHH, TTT,HTH,HHT,TTH,THT,THH,HTT}
Number of sample
n (S) = 8
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Mutual exclusive even: if two events cannot occur at the same time

When two events (call them "A" and "B") are Mutually Exclusive it is impossible for them to happen
together:
P(A ∩ B) = 0

But the probability of A or B is the sum of the individual probabilities:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1

A box contains 3 blue balls, 5 red balls and 6 black balls. A ball is drawn randomly. Find the
probability that the ball is:

i. Black
Step
1. find total number of sample = 14 balls
2. find number of black ball = 6

6 3
P (B) = =
14 7

ii. Not blue

Step
1. find total number of sample = 14 balls
2. find number of blue ball = 3
3. complementary event
P (B’) = 1 – P (B)
3 11
= 1− 14
= 14

iii. Red or blue

Step
1. find total number of sample = 14 balls
2. find number of blue ball = 3
3. find number of red ball = 5

P (B ∪ 𝑅) = P ( B) + P (R)
3 5 8 4
= + = =
14 14 14 7
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-Non mutual exclusive

P (A ∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B) – P( A ∩ 𝐵 )

Example

A grocery store employs cashiers, stock clerks and deli personnel. The distribution of employees
according to marital status is show below :

status cashiers Stock clerks Deli personnel

Married 8 12 3

Not married 5 15 2

If an employee is selected at random, find these probability:

i. the employee is stock clerk or married

Step
1. find total number of sample = 45 employees
2. find number stock clerks = 12 +15 = 27
3. find number of married = 8 + 12 +3 = 23
4. find employee which they are stock clerk and was married =12

P (SC ∪ M ) = P(SC) + P(M) – P( SC ∩ 𝑀 )

27 23 12 38
= 45 + 45 − 45 = 45
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ii. the employee is not married

Step
1. find total number of sample = 45 employees
2. find number of married = 8 + 12 +3 = 23

P (M’ ) = 1- P(M)
23 22
= 1− =
45 45

iii. the employee is a cashier or is not married

Step
1. find total number of sample = 45 employees
2. find number cashiers = 8+5 = 13
3. find number of not married = 5+15+2 = 22
4. find employee which they are cashiers and not married =5

P (C ∪ NM ) = P(C) + P(NM) – P( C ∩ 𝑁𝑀 )
13 22 5 8
= 45 + 45 − 45 = 9`

Example

In the science laboratory, there are items 250 made from glass and 250 made from plastic. They are
100 glass measuring cylinder, 150 plastic measuring cylinder, and 100 beakers: which 50 of it is glass
beaker and others are conical flask; which 50 of them are made from plastics. If an item selected,
find:

Step

1. identify all given data

2. short all data in table
3. number of sample : 250 +250 = 500

glass plastic total

Total all items 250 250 500
Cylinder 100 150 250
Beakers 50 100 -50 = 50 100
Conical flask 250 – ( 100 + 50) = 100 50 150
Check total 100 + 50 + 100 = 250 150 0+50 = 250

i. beaker or made from plastic

100 250 50 3
= 500 + 500 − 500 = 5

ii. conical flask or made from glass

150 250 100 3
= + − =
500 500 500 5
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iii. glass measuring cylinder or plastic measuring cylinder

100 150 1
= + =
500 500 2

Independent even : the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other

P(A ∩ B) = P(A). P(B)

Example

A box contains 5 apple juices, 3 mango juices and 7 orange juice. A juice is selected and its types
noted. A second juice is selected and its type noted. Calculate the following probability:-

i. selecting 2 apple juices

Step
3. find total number of sample = 15 juices
4. find number of apple juice = 5

P ( A ∩ A ) = P(A) . P (A)
5 5 1
= ∙
15 15
=9

ii. selecting 1 apple juice and mango juice

Step
1. find total number of sample = 15 juices
2. find number of apple juice = 5
3. find number of mango juice = 3

P ( A ∩ M ) = P(A) . P (M)
5 3 1
= ∙
15 15
= 15

iii. selecting 1 apple juice, then 1 mango juice and then 1 orange juice with replacement
Step
1. find total number of sample = 15 juices
2. find number of apple juice = 5
3. find number of mango juice = 3
4. find number of orange juice = 7

P ( A ∩ M ∩ O) = P(A) . P (M) . P (O)

5 3 7 7
= ∙ ∙
15 15 15
= 225

iv. Selecting 1 apple juice and then selecting 1 mango juice without replacing it.
Step
1. find total number of sample = 15 juices
2. find number of apple juice = 5
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3. find number of mango juice = 3

P ( A ∩ M ) = P(A) . P (M)
5 3 1
= ∙
15 14
= 14

Example

Three marbles are drawn successively from a box containing 5 green marbles, 4 yellow marbles and
3 blue marbles. Find the probability that they are drawn in the order green, yellow and blue if each
marble is

i. replacement
Step
1. find total number of sample = 12 marbles
2. find number of green marble = 5
3. find number of yellow marble = 4
4. find number of blue marble = 3

P ( G ∩ Y ∩ B ) = P (G) . P (Y) . P (B)

5 4 3 5
= ∙ ∙ =
12 12 12 144
ii. not replaced
Step
1. find total number of sample = 12 marbles
2. find number of green marble = 5
3. find number of yellow marble = 4
4. find number of blue marble = 3

P ( G ∩ Y ∩ B ) = P (G) . P (Y) . P (B)

5 4 3 1
= ∙ ∙ =
12 11 10 22

Example 2

In a school where teacher can teach more than one subject, there are 18 teacher teaching English,
14 teacher teaching science and 16 teacher teaching mathematics, 4 teachers teach only English and
science, 2 teacher teach only science and mathematics, 3 teacher teach only English and mathematic
and 6 teacher teach all the three subject. Find the probability that a randomly chosen teacher
teaches all the three subject

Step

1. identify all given data

2. short all data in table
3. teach only 1 subject
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example : total of teacher teach English 18

: 18 – ( 4 + 3 + 6 ) = 5
4. number of sample space : 4 + 2 + 3 + 6 + 12 = 27

subject Total (E ∩ S ) ( S ∩ M) (E ∩ M) (E ∩ S ∩ M ) Teach only 1 subject

English 18 4 3 6 18 - (4+3+6)= 5
Science 14 4 2 6 14- (2+6)=2
Math 16 2 3 6 16–(2 +3 +6)= 5
Total of person 4 2 3 6 12

The probability that a teacher teaches all the three subject

6
P (E ∩ S ∩ M ) = 27
EXAMPLE

Water samples (Day) Number Of Coliform Colony

1 7
3 10
5 15
7 8
9 2

Data below shows number of coliform from lake water sample that be count after day(s). Find these
probability:-

i. number of coliform colony count at least 5 days

n = 42
15 8 2
= 42 + 42 + 42
25
= 42

ii. number of coliform colony count at most 7 days

n = 42
8 15 10 7
= 42 + 42 + 42 + 42
20
=
21

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
 STATISTIC

A B

a-d d b-d

Example

A company has 100 salespersons, 40% of them are male and the rest are female. Sixteen of the male
salesperson are bachelors. Of all the female salespersons, 36 of them are married. A salesperson is
selected at random from the company. If it is known that the salesperson selected is single, what is
the probability that the salesperson is a male?

Solution : display the information in a table

Status male female total

Bachelors 16 60-36 = 24 40
Married 40-16 = 24 36 60
total 40 100-40 = 60 100

𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒)
P ( male | single ) =
𝑃(𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒)

Solution 1 Solution 2

16 Get direct from table

100
P ( male | single ) = 40
16
100 P ( male | single ) =
40
16 2
= =
40 5
16 2
= = 40 = 5