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PUERTO RICO
February 2020
DISASTER
RECOVERY
FEMA Actions
Needed to Strengthen
Project Cost
Estimation and
Awareness of
Program Guidance
GAO-20-221
February 2020
Letter 1
Background 6
FEMA Obligated Nearly $6 Billion for Public Assistance in Puerto
Rico as of September 2019, but FEMA and Puerto Rico Face
Significant Challenges in Developing Projects 14
FEMA Has Adapted Cost Estimating Guidance to Specific
Conditions in Puerto Rico, but Could Take Further Action to
Fully Align the Guidance with Best Practices 20
FEMA Has Developed Public Assistance Program Policies and
Guidance over Time for Puerto Rico, but Recovery Partners
Reported Challenges 26
Puerto Rico and FEMA Have Structures in Place to Manage and
Oversee Public Assistance Funding and FEMA Has Instituted
Additional Controls to Mitigate Risk 30
Conclusions 35
Recommendations for Executive Action 35
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation 35
Figures
Figure 1: The Paths of Hurricanes Irma and Maria 7
Figure 2: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA’s)
Public Assistance Program Categories of Work 9
Figure 3: Entities Involved in Implementing Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA’s) Public Assistance
Program in Puerto Rico 10
Figure 4: Standard Public Assistance and Alternative Procedures
for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s
(FEMA) Public Assistance in Puerto Rico 12
Figure 5: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Public
Assistance Obligations in Puerto Rico as of September
30, 2019 15
Figure 6: Damaged Sports Complex in Caguas, Puerto Rico 17
Figure 7: GAO Assessment of Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) Cost Estimating Guidance for Public
Assistance Projects Compared to the 12 Steps for
Developing a Reliable and Valid Cost Estimate 22
Figure 8: Collapsed Segment of Road near Maricao, Puerto Rico,
September 2018 42
Figure 9: Damaged School Building in San Juan, Puerto Rico,
March 2019 43
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February 5, 2020
Congressional Requesters
1
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) measures hurricanes on
a scale from 1 to 5 with a Category 1 being the least intense and a Category 5 being the
most intense. NOAA defines a Category 4 hurricane as one with winds above 130 miles
per hour but less than 157 miles per hour. Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico
as a Category 4 hurricane.
2
In fiscal year 2016, the last year for which audited financial statements are available at
the time of our 2019 review of Puerto Rico’s public debt, total public debt outstanding
stands at $65.2 billion. Puerto Rico’s total public debt outstanding increased continuously
between fiscal years 2005 and 2014, prior to a default in 2015. Puerto Rico is in the
process of restructuring its outstanding debt. See GAO, U.S. Territories: Public Debt
Outlook – 2019 Update, GAO-19-525 (Washington, D.C.: June 28, 2019).
3
See 6 U.S.C. § 313.
4
See 82 Fed. Reg. 53,514-01 (Nov. 16, 2017). The Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of
2013 amended the Stafford Act by adding Section 428, which authorized FEMA to
approve Public Assistance program projects under the alternative procedures provided by
that section for any presidentially-declared major disaster or emergency. Pub. L. No. 113-
2, div. B, § 1102(2), 127 Stat. 39, amending Pub. L. No. 93-288, tit. IV, § 428 (codified at
42 U.S.C. § 5189f).
5
GAO, 2017 Hurricanes and Wildfires: Initial Observations on the Federal Response and
Key Recovery Challenges, GAO-18-472 (Washington, D.C.: September 4, 2017). GAO,
Puerto Rico Hurricanes: Status of FEMA Funding, Oversight, and Recovery Challenges,
GAO-19-256 (Washington, D.C.: March 14, 2019). Further, we testified on four occasions
between June 2019 and October 2019, regarding our observations on Puerto Rico’s plans
for using the alternative procedures program and challenges with program
implementation. GAO, Emergency Management: FEMA Has Made Progress, but
Challenges and Future Risks Highlight Imperative for Further Improvements,
GAO-19-594T (Washington, D.C.: June 12, 2019). GAO, Emergency Management: FEMA
Has Made Progress, but Challenges and Future Risks Highlight Imperative for Further
Improvements, GAO-19-617T (Washington, D.C.: June 25, 2019). GAO, Emergency
Management: FEMA’s Disaster Recovery Efforts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, GAO-19-662T (Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2019). GAO, Disaster Recovery:
Recent Disasters Highlight Progress and Challenges, GAO-20-183T (Washington, D.C.:
October 22, 2019). For other relevant reports, see the Related GAO Products page.
6
FEMA Region II is responsible for the states of New Jersey and New York, the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight Tribal
Nations.
7
These data do not include obligations and expenditures for, among other federal disaster
assistance programs, direct federal mission assignments, in which a federal agency is
tasked with providing eligible emergency work or debris removal services to a territory or
state, or for other categories of mission assignments. An obligation is a definite
commitment that creates a legal liability of the government for the payment of goods and
services ordered or received. For the purposes of this report, obligations represent the
amount of grant funding FEMA provided through the Public Assistance program for
specific projects in Puerto Rico. An expenditure is an amount paid by federal agencies, by
cash or cash equivalent, during the fiscal year to liquidate government obligations. For the
purposes of this report, an expenditure represents the actual spending by the Puerto Rico
government of money obligated by the federal government.
• Fully met. FEMA provided complete evidence that satisfies all the
elements of the step.
• Substantially met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a large
portion of the elements of the step.
• Partially met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies about half of the
elements of the step.
• Minimally met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a small portion
of the elements of the step.
• Not met. FEMA provided no evidence that satisfies any of the
elements of the step.
We have summarized our findings for each of the Cost Guide’s 12 steps
in appendix IV of this report.
8
GAO, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Best Practices for Developing and
Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP (Washington, D.C.: March, 2009).The 12-
step process addresses best practices, including defining the program’s purpose,
developing the estimating plan, defining the program’s characteristics, determining the
estimating approach, identifying ground rules and assumptions, obtaining data, developing
the point estimate, conducting sensitivity analysis, performing a risk or uncertainty
analysis, documenting the estimate, presenting it to management for approval, and
updating it to reflect actual costs and changes. Following these steps ensures that realistic
cost estimates are developed and presented to management, enabling them to make
informed decisions.
9
FEMA; National Disaster Recovery Framework, Second Edition (Washington, D.C.: June,
2019).
FEMA’s Public Assistance FEMA’s Public Assistance program provides grant funding to state,
Program territorial, local, and tribal governments, as well as certain types of private
nonprofit organizations, to assist them in responding to and recovering
from major disasters or emergencies. 14 As shown in figure 2, Public
Assistance program funds are categorized broadly as either “emergency
work” or “permanent work.” Within those two broad categories are
separate sub-categories. In addition to the emergency work and
permanent work categories, FEMA’s Public Assistance program includes
Category Z, which represents any indirect costs, any direct administrative
costs, and any other administrative expense associated with a specific
project. 15
11
In accordance with the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act
(Stafford Act), as amended, the President of the United States may declare that a major
disaster or emergency exists in response to a Governor’s or tribal chief executive’s
request if the disaster is of such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond
the capabilities of a state, tribe, or local government and federal assistance is necessary.
See 42 U.S.C. § 5170.
12
Presidential Policy Directive-8: National Preparedness establishes a national
preparedness system made of an integrated set of guidance, programs, and processes
designed to strengthen the security and resilience of the United States through systematic
preparation for the natural and human-caused threats that pose the greatest risk. This
system breaks preparedness activities into five different lines of effort—prevention,
protection, mitigation, response, and recovery—each of which requires a separate
planning framework.
13
FEMA; National Response Framework, Fourth Edition (October 29, 2019).
14
The Public Assistance program represents the largest share of the Disaster Relief Fund
(DRF), which is the primary source of federal disaster assistance for state and local
governments when a disaster is declared. The DRF is appropriated no-year funding,
which allows FEMA to fund, direct, coordinate, and manage response and recovery
efforts—including certain efforts by other federal agencies and state and local
governments, among others—associated with domestic disasters and emergencies.
15
The Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 amended the definition of management cost,
referred to as category Z. See Pub. L. No. 115-254, § 1215, 132 Stat. 3186, 3449
(codified at 42 U.S.C. § 5165b(a)).
a
The Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 amends the definition of Category Z management costs.
See Pub. L. No. 115-254, § 1215, 132 Stat. 3186, 3449 (codified at 42 U.S.C. § 5165b(a)).
Entities Involved in Puerto Given the immense scale and scope of devastation, disaster recovery in
Rico’s Recovery Puerto Rico is a complex and dynamic process involving a large number
of entities. As shown in figure 3, implementing the Public Assistance
program involves recovery partners from the federal government; the
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico; and Puerto Rico government agencies,
public corporations, municipalities, and eligible nonprofits in Puerto Rico.
These recovery partners play a role in implementing the Public
Assistance program by developing projects and providing or receiving
grants and sub-grants (subawards).
a
Other local eligible entities include eligible private nonprofit organizations that provide eligible
services such as education, utility, emergency or medical, among others.
16
Puerto Rico; Amendment No. 5 to Notice of a Major Disaster Declaration, 82 Fed. Reg.
53,514 (Nov. 16, 2017).
Alternative Procedures for According to a November 2017 amendment to Puerto Rico’s major
Public Assistance Funds disaster declaration, FEMA must obligate all large project funding for
Public Assistance permanent work through alternative procedures due to
the extraordinary level of infrastructure damage caused by Hurricane
Maria, as well as Puerto Rico’s difficult financial position. 18
Under the standard Public Assistance program, FEMA will fund the actual
cost of a large project, and will increase or reduce the amount of funding
based on the cost of completed eligible work. In contrast, in Puerto Rico,
17
Federal regulations adopted by DHS that govern federal grant awards require that
recipients of federal grant awards, including states and territories, must monitor
subrecipients to ensure they are aware of, and comply with, federal regulations. See 2
C.F.R. § 200.331.
18
See 82 Fed. Reg. 53,514.
19
Facility means any publicly or privately owned building, works, system, or equipment,
built of manufactured, or an improved and maintained natural feature. 44 C.F.R. §
206.201(c).
Figure 4: Standard Public Assistance and Alternative Procedures for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA)
Public Assistance in Puerto Rico
The Bipartisan Budget Act Section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 authorized FEMA,
of 2018 when using the alternative procedures, to provide assistance to fund the
replacement or restoration of disaster-damaged infrastructure that
provides critical services—such as medical and educational facilities—to
an industry standard without regard to pre-disaster condition. 20 It also
allows for restoration of components not damaged by the disaster when
necessary to fully effectuate restoration of the disaster-damaged
components to restore the function of the facility or system to industry
standards. For example, through the Act, FEMA may fund the restoration
of a disaster-damaged school building—which provides a critical
service—to accepted industry standards applicable to the construction of
education facilities. Therefore, according to FEMA policy, if the school
building was not up to industry standards, or in poor condition prior to the
2017 hurricanes, the Act allows FEMA to fund the restoration of this
building to a better condition than it was in prior to the storms. Further, the
Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Act of 2019
(Supplemental Relief Act), which was signed into law on June 6, 2019,
provides additional direction to FEMA in the implementation of section
20601. 21 Following the Supplemental Relief Act, FEMA issued additional
20
See Pub. L. No. 115-123, § 20601(1), 132 Stat. 64 (2018). For the purposes of our
report, discussion of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 refers specifically to section 20601.
Critical services include public infrastructure in the following sectors: power, water, sewer,
wastewater treatment, communications, education, and emergency medical care. See 42
U.S.C. § 5172(a)(3)(B). Section 20601 applies only to assistance provided through the
Public Assistance alternative procedures program for the duration of the recovery for the
major disasters declared in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands following hurricanes
Irma and Maria. Further, the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief
Act of 2019, which was signed into law on June 6, 2019, provides additional direction to
FEMA in the implementation of section 20601. Pub. L. No. 116-20, tit. VI, § 601, 133 Stat.
871, 882 (2019 ). Specifically it directs FEMA to “include the costs associated with
addressing pre-disaster condition, undamaged components, codes and standards, and
industry standards in the cost of repair” when calculating the whether a facility should be
repaired or replaced.
21
We reported in June 2019 that FEMA and Puerto Rico officials have reported challenges
with the implementation of the flexibilities authorized by section 20601 of the Bipartisan
Budget Act. Officials from Puerto Rico’s central government stated that they disagreed
with FEMA’s interpretation of the types of damages covered by section 20601 of the
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. In response, FEMA officials in Puerto Rico stated they held
several briefings with the central recovery office to explain FEMA’s interpretation of the
section. GAO-19-594T.
FEMA Obligated
Nearly $6 Billion for
Public Assistance in
Puerto Rico as of
September 2019, but
FEMA and Puerto
Rico Face Significant
Challenges in
Developing Projects
Status of FEMA Public Since the 2017 hurricanes, FEMA has obligated nearly $6 billion in Public
Assistance Funding in Assistance program funding for 1,558 projects across Puerto Rico,
according to our analysis of FEMA’s data as of September 30, 2019 (see
Puerto Rico fig. 5). 22 Specifically, FEMA had obligated approximately $5.1 billion for
emergency work projects (categories A and B), $487 million for
permanent work projects (categories C through G), and $315 million for
management costs (Category Z).
22
These data include Public Assistance program grant funding and do not include
obligations and expenditures for, among other things, direct federal mission assignments,
in which a federal agency is tasked with providing eligible emergency work or debris
removal services to a territory or state, or for other categories of mission assignments. For
example, these data do not include obligations for direct federal assistance through
mission assignments for temporary emergency power and grid restoration efforts in Puerto
Rico.
Note: Numbers might not total 100 percent due to rounding. Emergency protective measures include
activities to lessen the immediate threat to life, public health, or safety such as search and rescue
operations and providing medical care and transport. On October 5, 2019, the Disaster Recovery
Reform Act of 2018 amended the definition of management costs to include any indirect cost, any
direct administrative cost, and any other administrative expense associated with a specific project.
See Pub. L. No. 115-254, § 1215, 132 Stat. 3186, 3449 (codified at 42 U.S.C. § 5165b(a)). Recipients
and subrecipients for disasters or emergencies declared from Aug. 1, 2017 through Oct. 4, 2018 were
able to opt to use FEMA’s interim policy implementing the amended definition or to use previous
existing options, which reimburse management (indirect) costs and direct administrative costs
separately. Puerto Rico as a recipient opted to use the new interim policy, whereas several
subrecipients opted to use previous options, such that the total obligations for Category Z include
both management and direct administrative costs.
Of the nearly $6 billion FEMA has obligated, Puerto Rico has expended
approximately $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2019—about 65 percent of
total Public Assistance program obligations to Puerto Rico—to reimburse
subrecipients for completed work. As shown in table 1, Puerto Rico has
Table 1: Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Public Assistance Obligations to Puerto Rico and Expenditures
for Hurricanes Irma and Maria by Category of Work as of September 30, 2019
FEMA and Puerto Rico FEMA and Puerto Rico officials identified challenges in developing Public
Face Significant Assistance projects in Puerto Rico. Specifically, they cited: (1) delays in
establishing a cost estimating guidance for projects in Puerto Rico, (2) the
Challenges in Developing
large number of damaged sites that require finalized fixed cost estimates,
Public Assistance Projects and (3) challenges with the implementation of the flexibilities authorized
by section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act.
According to FEMA guidance, October 11, 2019, was the deadline for
completing fixed cost estimates for Public Assistance alternative
procedures projects. 24 However, on October 8, 2019, officials from the
central recovery office requested an extension to the deadline, which
23
As of September 30, 2019, Puerto Rico expended funding on 14 of the 19 obligated
projects with finalized fixed cost estimates. FEMA officials stated that the final number of
projects and fixed cost estimates is subject to change and will depend on how
subrecipients choose to group projects under alternative procedures.
24
FEMA, Public Assistance Alternative Procedures (Section 428) Guide for Permanent
Work FEMA-4339-DR-PR (April 2018 and September 2019).
25
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 authorized FEMA, when using the Public Assistance
alternative procedures, to provide assistance to fund the replacement or restoration of
disaster-damaged infrastructure that provide critical services to industry standards without
regard to pre-disaster condition. Pub. L. No. 115-123, § 20601(1), 132 Stat. 64 (2018).
Critical services include public infrastructure in the following sectors: power, water, sewer,
wastewater treatment, communications, education, and emergency medical care. See 42
U.S.C. § 5172(a)(3)(B). Section 20601 applies only to assistance provided through the
Public Assistance alternative procedures program for the duration of the recovery for the
major disasters declared in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands following hurricanes
Irma and Maria. Further, the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief
Act of 2019, which was signed into law on June 6, 2019, provides additional direction to
FEMA in the implementation of section 20601. Pub. L. No. 116-20, tit. VI, § 601, 133 Stat.
871, 882 (2019). For the purposes of our report, discussion of the Bipartisan Budget Act of
2018 refers specifically to section 20601.
26
FEMA, Implementing Section 20601 of the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act through the
Public Assistance Program., FEMA Recovery Policy FP-104-009-5 Version 2. (September
2019)
FEMA Cost Estimating FEMA’s cost estimating guidance for Public Assistance fully or
Guidance Met Most Cost substantially met nine of the 12 steps from GAO’s Cost Estimating and
Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide). 27 However, the guidance partially
Estimating Best Practices,
met two and minimally met one of the remaining cost estimating steps, as
but FEMA Could Take shown in figure 7 below. The GAO Cost Guide outlines best practices for
Further Action to Fully cost estimating and presents 12 steps that, when incorporated into an
Align with Best Practices agency’s cost estimating guidance, should result in reliable and valid cost
estimates that management can use to make informed decisions. 28 A
reliable cost estimate is critical to the success of any construction
27
FEMA, Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects Instructional Guide V2.1, (September,
2009); FEMA. Public Assistance Alternative Procedures (Section 428) Guide for
Permanent Work FEMA-4339-DR-P, (September, 2019)
28
GAO-09-3SP.
Note: Our assessments of FEMA’s cost estimating guidance in comparison with the 12 steps
identified in GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide fall in the following categories:
Fully met: FEMA provided complete evidence that satisfies the elements of the step;
Substantially met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a large portion of the elements of the step;
Partially met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies about half of the elements of the step;
Minimally met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a small portion of the elements of the step; and
Not met: FEMA provided no evidence that satisfies any of the elements of the step.
Further, we found that FEMA’s guidance for cost estimating does not fully
or substantially meet three steps: (1) conduct a sensitivity analysis; (2)
obtain the data; and (3) conduct a risk and uncertainty analysis. 29
29
For a summary of our assessment for each of GAO’s 12 steps, see appendix II.
30
GAO-09-3SP.
While FEMA fully or substantially met nine of the 12 steps in the GAO
Cost Guide, FEMA could improve its cost estimating guidance to ensure
that all best practices in the 12 steps in the GAO Cost Guide are fully met.
In doing so, FEMA could further enhance the reliability of its cost
estimating guidance.
FEMA Has
Developed Public
Assistance Program
Policies and
Guidance over Time
for Puerto Rico, but
Recovery Partners
Reported Challenges
FEMA Public Assistance In response to the complexity of the recovery, as well as the nature of
Program Policies and change in a recovery environment, FEMA has developed and issued
guidance that is specific to the implementation of the Public Assistance
Guidance for Puerto Rico
program in Puerto Rico. As previously discussed, disaster recovery in
Puerto Rico is a complex and dynamic process that requires the
coordination of many entities, including FEMA, the government of Puerto
Rico, and numerous subrecipients. Recovery in Puerto Rico also involves
the use of Public Assistance structures including alternative procedures
and new flexibilities afforded to FEMA under the Bipartisan Budget Act of
2018.
FEMA has also developed policies and guidance to address the specific
recovery circumstances in Puerto Rico. For example, in April of 2018 and
September of 2019, FEMA published the Public Assistance Alternative
Procedures Guide for Permanent Work to clarify how FEMA would
implement the program in Puerto Rico. 32 This guidance describes the
scope and limitations of the alternative procedures; highlights changes to
aspects of the Public Assistance program to which these procedures
apply; identifies responsibilities for certain activities; and documents
timelines for key actions and decisions. FEMA also issued a policy on the
agency’s implementation of section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act as
it applies in Puerto Rico in September of 2018, detailing the applicability
of the section to specific critical services and outlining eligible industry
standards for purposes of authorized projects, among other things.
Following the Supplemental Relief Act, FEMA issued guidance in
September 2019 that includes additional information on eligibility and
applicable industry standards. According to FEMA officials, FEMA has
also developed and implemented training specific to recovery in Puerto
Rico. This training has included presentations to the central recovery
office and subrecipients on the flexibilities of the Bipartisan Budget Act
and alternative procedures, among other things.
Recovery Partners in FEMA has iteratively developed, refined, and clarified Public Assistance
Puerto Rico Identified guidance in Puerto Rico to respond and adapt to changing recovery
conditions since the 2017 hurricanes. While iterative and responsive
Challenges with the
guidance is necessary in a complex and changing recovery, the pace of
Accessibility of FEMA change necessitates that all involved recovery entities have real-time
Public Assistance Policies accessibility to current applicable FEMA guidance. Officials from the
and Guidance central recovery office and four Puerto Rico government agencies we
spoke with stated that they did not consistently have the guidance they
31
Other guidance applicable to Puerto Rico but not developed specifically for the island’s
recovery include the Public Assistance Alternative Procedures for Direct Administrative
Costs, and Instruction on Implementation of the Environmental Planning and Historic
Preservation Responsibilities and Program Requirements.
32
FEMA. Public Assistance Alternative Procedures (Section 428) Guide for Permanent
Work FEMA-4339-DR-PR (Washington, DC: April 2018 and September 2019).
33
During interviews with officials from six selected agencies and public corporations and
10 selected municipalities, officials identified various challenges. When we report the
number of agencies, public corporations, or municipalities that identified a particular
challenge, this does not necessarily indicate that the remaining agencies, public
corporations, or municipalities did not also experience the challenge. Rather, it indicates
that those agencies, public corporations, or municipalities did not raise the challenge
during our interviews.
34
GAO-19-256
35
See generally 44 C.F.R. part 206; 2 C.F.R. § 200.331.
36
FEMA. National Disaster Recovery Framework, Second Edition (Washington, D.C.:
June, 2019).
37
https://www.recovery.pr/
38
For Public Assistance program projects to comply with the requirements of 2 C.F.R. §
200.331, monitoring and reporting program performance, among other things, grantees
are responsible for managing the day-to-day operations of grant and subgrant supported
activities. Grantees must monitor grant and subgrant supported activities to ensure
compliance with applicable Federal requirements.
39
Federal grant award regulations allow FEMA to impose additional grant award
conditions in specific circumstances, such as to mitigate risk and ensure fiscal
accountability of the recipient or subrecipient. See 2 C.F.R. §§ 200.205, 200.207; see
generally 2 C.F.R. part 200. These additional award conditions may include requiring
payments as reimbursements rather than advance payments; withholding authority to
proceed to the next phase until receipt of evidence of acceptable performance within a
given period of performance; requiring additional, more detailed financial reports, among
other conditions.
40
The central recovery office is responsible for collecting and submitting all documentation
requested by FEMA from subrecipients.
41
Standard Form 270: Request for Advance or Reimbursement.
42
Additional documentation requested by FEMA to process a Standard Form 270 request
includes, among other things, copies of contracts, cost of labor estimates, bid documents,
and evidence of payment.
43
FEMA, FEMA to Reinstate Manual Drawdown Process for the Commonwealth of Puerto
Rico (July 25, 2019)
DHS concurred with our first recommendation that FEMA revise its cost-
estimating guidance for Public Assistance projects to fully align with all 12
steps in the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. DHS stated
Chris P. Currie
Director, Homeland Security and Justice
1
The Public Assistance program provides funding for debris removal efforts, life-saving
emergency protective measures, and the repair or replacement of disaster-damaged
publicly-owned facilities, roads and bridges, electrical utilities, and more. An obligation is a
definite commitment that creates a legal liability of the government for the payment of
goods and services ordered or received. For the purposes of this report, obligations
represent the amount of grant funding FEMA provided through the Public Assistance
program for specific projects in Puerto Rico. An expenditure is an amount paid by federal
agencies, by cash or cash equivalent, during the fiscal year to liquidate government
obligations. For the purposes of this report, an expenditure represents the actual spending
by Puerto Rican government of money obligated by the federal government. These data
do not include obligations and expenditures for, among other federal disaster assistance
programs, direct federal mission assignments, in which a federal agency is tasked with
providing eligible emergency work or debris removal services to a territory or state, or for
other categories of mission assignments.
2
Management costs are any indirect cost, any direct administrative cost, and any other
administrative expense associated with a specific project.
Figure 8: Collapsed Segment of Road near Maricao, Puerto Rico, September 2018
Figure 9: Damaged School Building in San Juan, Puerto Rico, March 2019
1
GAO, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide Best Practices for Developing and
Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP (Washington, D.C.: March, 2009)
2
GAO-09-3SP
Table 2: Assessment of Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Cost Estimating Guidance for Public Assistance
Compared to Cost Estimating Best Practices Identified in GAO’s Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide
GAO’s Assessment of
GAO’s 12 step cost FEMA’s available FEMA’s guidelines and guidance compared to GAO’s Cost Estimating and
estimating process information Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide)
1. Define the Fully met The purpose of a cost estimate is determined by its intended use and its
estimate’s intended use determines its scope and detail. To determine an estimate’s scope,
purpose cost analysts must identify the customer’s needs.
FEMA’s Alternative Procedures Guide and Cost Estimating Format (CEF)
describe the estimate’s purpose, level of detail required, overall scope, and
provide a timeframe for which the estimates must be developed and agreed to.
2. Develop the Substantially met An analytic approach to cost estimates typically entails a written estimating plan
estimating plan detailing a master schedule of specific tasks, responsible parties such as the
estimating team, and due dates. An estimating team should include experienced
and trained analysts. In addition, enough time should be scheduled to collect
data, including visits to contractor sites to further understand the strengths and
limitations of the data that have been collected. If the time allotted to develop the
estimate is limited, then the schedule constraint should be clearly identified in the
ground rules and assumptions, so that management understands the effect on
the estimate’s quality and confidence.
FEMA guidance describes the estimating team, cost estimating approach, roles,
and access to subject matter experts. FEMA states “highly qualified cost
estimators” will be used; however, this statement is not supported because
FEMA does not describe the level of experience nor training required of the cost
analysts. Lastly, FEMA guidance does not require the development of a master
cost schedule.
3. Define the Substantially met The key to developing a credible estimate is having an adequate understanding
program’s of the project that usually takes form in a technical baseline. A technical baseline
characteristics should include a description of the project, define the requirements, and
document the underlying technical and project assumptions necessary to
develop a cost estimate and update changes as they occur.
FEMA documentation describes a “scope of work” which provides an
understanding of the work required to repair or replace a damaged facility.
Similar to a technical baseline, the scope of work drives the cost estimate. FEMA
documentation describes who develops the scope of work, revisions, how the
scope of work informs the cost estimate, agreement to the scope, and questions
to determine if the scope of work addresses damage caused by the disaster. We
rated this step as substantially met instead of fully met because it is not evident
how the scope of work addresses acquisition strategy or risk.
GAO’s Assessment of
GAO’s 12 step cost FEMA’s available FEMA’s guidelines and guidance compared to GAO’s Cost Estimating and
estimating process information Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide)
4. Determine the Fully met A work breakdown structure is the cornerstone of every project because it
estimating defines in detail the work necessary to accomplish a project’s objectives. For
structure example, a typical “work breakdown structure” reflects the requirements and
what must be accomplished to develop a project, details common elements, and
provides a basis for identifying resources and tasks for developing a project cost
estimate.
FEMA documentation describes the CEF as providing “a uniform method of
estimating costs for large projects” that “accounts for costs incurred across the
entire spectrum of eligible work (from design to project completion).” The CEF is
structured into eight parts, with each part broken down at least one level. The
CEF Guide contains definitions of each part, as well as descriptions for what is
included, how the part is calculated, and how it relates to other parts or the
scope of work. The CEF Spreadsheet’s Total Project Summary tab shows child
elements summing to the parent element, and each parent element summing to
the project total.
5. Identify ground Substantially met Cost estimates are typically based on limited information and therefore need to
rules and be bound by the constraints that make estimating possible. These constraints
assumptions are usually made in the form of assumptions. It is imperative that cost estimators
document all assumptions well and test them for risk to portray the effects of any
assumptions changing or failing, so that management fully understands the
conditions the estimate was based on. Such documentation and analysis
provides management with an invaluable perspective on its decision.
Additionally, cost estimators must ensure that assumptions are not arbitrary and
that they are founded on expert judgments rendered by experienced project and
technical personnel.
The CEF Guide provides measures to ensure assumptions are not arbitrary, are
founded on expert judgments, and are documented. However, we rated this step
as substantially met instead of fully met because the CEF Guide does not
address all GAO best practices associated with ground rules and assumptions.
For example, the CEF Guide does not discuss the level of risk if an assumption
changes or fails and its effect on the estimate, nor defines the effects of delaying
program content.
6. Obtain the Data Partially met Credible cost estimates are rooted in historical data. Estimators usually develop
estimates for new projects by relying on data from existing projects and adjusting
for any differences. Thus, collecting valid and useful historical data is a key step
in developing a sound cost estimate. One way of ensuring that the data are
applicable is to perform checks of reasonableness to see if the results are
similar.
The CEF Guide describes acceptable data that are to be used, data sources,
priority of data, evaluation of data received, and selecting the appropriate cost
data to use. FEMA has implemented a cost factor to adjust for local costs of
labor, equipment, and materials and a future price factor to adjust for expected
increases in construction costs. However, the future price curve, which FEMA
intends to take the place of the future price factor currently in place, has not yet
been finalized. Furthermore, there are several best practices in the GAO cost
guide related to data that are not included in the FEMA guidance. For example,
analyzing data for cost drivers and data normalization are not discussed.
GAO’s Assessment of
GAO’s 12 step cost FEMA’s available FEMA’s guidelines and guidance compared to GAO’s Cost Estimating and
estimating process information Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide)
7. Develop the point Substantially met This step pulls all the information together to develop the point estimate. This
estimate and step includes determining the best estimating methodology, and validating the
compare to an estimate.
Independent Cost The CEF for Large Projects is a Microsoft Excel-based template used for
Estimate developing estimates for certain permanent work large projects. The CEF
Guide’s appendix E provides an overview as well as guidance on how to use the
CEF tool. We rated this step as substantially met because FEMA guidance does
not consider the following activities: expressing the point estimate in constant-
year dollars or performing cross-checks on cost drivers.
8. Conduct a Minimally met A sensitivity analysis should be included in all cost estimates because it
sensitivity examines the effects of changing assumptions and ground rules. Without a
analysis sensitivity analysis, the cost estimator will not fully understand which variable
most affects the cost estimate.
FEMA’s CEF reflects construction estimate uncertainties and includes a range of
values around estimating factors to account for contingencies. However, FEMA
guidance does not instruct estimators to perform a sensitivity analysis on cost
estimates for alternative procedures projects. A sensitivity analysis is where a
cost estimator examines the effect on the cost estimate of changing one
assumption or cost driver at a time while holding all other variables constant.
9. Conduct a risk Partially met Quantitative risk and uncertainty analysis provides a way to assess the variability
analysis in the point estimate. Having a range of costs around a point estimate is more
useful to decision makers because it conveys the level of confidence in achieving
the most likely cost and also informs them on cost, schedule, and technical risks.
Risk is accounted for in Part C of the CEF, which “reflects construction estimate
uncertainties and is designed to address budgetary risks associated with project
unknowns and complexities in determining the scope of work.” However, we
rated this step as partially met because FEMA’s guidance does not require a
statistical analysis of risks be performed to determine a range of possible costs
and the level of confidence in achieving the estimate, which are best practices
GAO has identified.
10. Document the Substantially met Documentation provides total recall of the estimate’s detail so that the estimate
estimate can be replicated by someone other than those who prepared it. Documentation
also serves as a reference to support future estimates. Documenting the cost
estimate makes available a written justification showing how it was developed
and aids in updating it as key assumptions change and more information
becomes available. According to the Cost Guide, estimates should be
documented to show all parameters, assumptions, descriptions, methods, and
the calculations used to develop the cost estimate.
FEMA guidance describes three different mechanisms for documenting the
estimate: “Complete the Project Worksheet” (PW), “CEF Project Reporting,” and
documentation within the CEF via the CEF Fact Sheet tab and the CEF Notes
tab.
The documentation contains basic information about the project and the
estimate; description of the scope of work; supporting backup information; logic,
assumptions, and reasoning for the selection of factors used; and the basis of
the CEF estimate, including source data. This step was rated as substantially
met instead of fully met because FEMA policy does not require documentation to
include a discussion of high risk areas.
GAO’s Assessment of
GAO’s 12 step cost FEMA’s available FEMA’s guidelines and guidance compared to GAO’s Cost Estimating and
estimating process information Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide)
11. Present estimate Substantially met FEMA policy describes an estimate submission package for approval, to include
to Management the Excel file containing the CEF estimate, the project worksheet, and all
applicable supporting documentation. The contents of the CEF Excel file contain
the majority of items the GAO Cost Guide states are necessary for presenting
the estimate to management.
We rated this step as substantially met instead of fully met because FEMA policy
does not require the estimate submission package to contain a discussion on the
results of the third-party independent expert panel’s validation, how any
differences were resolved, nor a discussion of how the estimate was determined
to be reasonable.
12. Update the Substantially met Cost estimates should be updated whenever requirements change and the
estimate results should be reconciled and recorded against the old estimate baseline. The
documented comparison between the current estimate (updated with actual
costs) and the old estimate allows the cost estimator to determine the level of
variance between the two estimates. In other words, it allows estimators to see
how well they are estimating and how the project is changing over time.
Step 7 of the Cost Estimating Format Development Process is “CEF Project
Reporting,” during which the CEF “will be revised periodically, as data from
actual projects become available” and will occur on an as-needed basis.
However, we rated this step as substantially met instead of fully met because
FEMA policy does not explain how actual costs, technical, and schedule data are
archived for future use.
Note: Our assessments of FEMA’s cost estimating guidance in comparison with the GAO Cost
Estimating and Assessment Guide (GAO-09-03SP) fall in the following categories:
Fully met: FEMA provided complete evidence that satisfies the elements of the step;
Substantially met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a large portion of the elements of the step;
Partially met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies about half of the elements of the step;
Minimally met: FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a small portion of the elements of the step; and
Not met: FEMA provided no evidence that satisfies any of the elements of the step.
Acknowledgments
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Page 59 GAO-20-221 Puerto Rico Disaster Recovery
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