BICC, The Westin Resort Nusa Dua, Bali

25 - 27 April 2018

Big Data Informed Sustainability

of Smallholders
Yu Leng KHOR
yuleng@segi-enam.com
https://www.khor-reports.com/
KHOR Reports
Data & Maps
 About Khor Reports

Expert independent data advisory – big data, thick data & more

• Our principal is an international economic consultant. For more than 20 Fortune 500
& Asia corporations, government agencies (EU Commission) and NGOs in over 150
studies. With specialisation in agribusiness, trade and China-ASEAN economics.
• Geospatial economics, business intelligence & social listening.
• For market opportunities, strategic issues, competitive analysis.
• Customised dataset development. Data acquisition, aggregation, analytics. Data
integration, referencing, audit.
• Partnerships. With academic & specialist inputs, peer review.

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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Cross-referencing geospatial and socio-economic data can provide different and
unique insights for policy makers, researchers, managers, and buyers

Geospatial data Socio-economic data

• Tree plantation zones • Household income

• Wood pulp and timber concession • Migration and demographic
zones information
• Managed forest concession zones • Proxies of social outcomes and
• Fire incidence maps (historical and indices of development (e.g.
live) Human Development Index)
• Peat zones • Labour demand and supply,
• Deforestation employment rates

Public and private data can be used to quantify NDPE and SDG
indicators up to local administrative levels & for business landscapes
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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Geospatial data can help provide context and insight about smallholder production
zones

Capabilities of geospatial analysis:

• Help identify regions of
smallholder production (using
publicly available data or
proprietary information)
• Provide historical perspective
and context to different types of
production zones and crops
• Help identify overlapping areas
of deforestation and palm oil or
other crop production using large
deforestation datasets to
segment ‘greenfield’ vs
‘brownfield’ deforestation

Source: Khor Reports Data: Transparent World (2015) and Khor Reports estimates
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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Smallholder production in Johor (“no deforestation”) – analysts of “tree cover
loss” tend to overstate land use change

Source: Khor Reports Data: Khor Reports estimates, Khor Yu Leng (2018), Transparent World (2015), DIGI & Celcom (2014, 2017)

Land use data can be overlaid with location of business

Our study of Johor land use yielded a map of Johor tree
landscapes. Johor OP production zones largely accessible by
plantation area in use by 1984 (yellow zone) – nearly all Johor
mobile communications shows potential for digital stakeholder
areas under tree crops were in use by 1985. Further analysis
communications (green: areas with access to 4G in 2017; pink:
can be conducted on annual basis to uncover ‘greenfield’ vs
areas with access to 4G in 2013; white: a plantation group’s
‘brownfield’ development
business landscape)

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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Smallholder production in Riau
Over 5 million ha gross tree plantation
areas (green), over 0.5 million ha
smallholder OP
Tracking and managing NDPE & SDG
indicators in smallholder zones – case 841,500 hectares of tree plantations
studies from North Sumatra and Riau: located in peat land (16% of total
planted area, orange-beige)
• Geospatial data can provide
comprehensive context of
production areas of palm and other 32,300 hotspots* in tree plantations
(2013-2018); 1,981 (6%) were high
forest products
confidence (>80% confidence) and
• Combination of historical, annual, high temperature fires (>90 Celsius,
and live geospatial data can assist red). *Often overstated as fires.
with management of NDPE & SDG
indicators (especially SDG 1, 8, 12, Legend:

15) in high-risk smallholder zones Tree Plantations

Tree plantations
in peat
High confidence,
high temperature
fires in tree
plantation zones

Source: Khor Reports Data: Transparent World (2015), “Indonesia Peat Lands”
(2012), NASA-MODIS
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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Smallholder production in Riau – socio-economic indicators

• Riau has highest % of OP in

Indonesia: 35% of the province are oil
palm plantations, the smallholder : On peat
OP (green), (pink),
smallholders % of smallholder OP
% of all tree
industrial plantation ratio, 1:3. area:
plantation area:
• We use official data to identify Bengkalis(35%)
• Bengkalis (38%)
RokanHilir
• Rokan Hilir(18%)
(60%)
preliminary results of oil palm’s effect Siak(12%)
• Siak (38%)
on HDI, income, net labour supply
• Oil palm is a major economic activity
in several Riau regencies; other
economic activities include rubber and
coconut cultivation, and other forest Legend:

products OP zones with high ratio

of smallholders
OP zones with low ratio
OP zones with low ratio of of smallholders
On peat, % of smallholder OP area
smallholders (grey), % of tree Peat in OP zones with
(purple): low ratio of smallholders
plantation areas:
• Kuantan Singingi (0%) Peat in OP zones with
• Kuantan Singingi (1%) high ratio of smallholders
• Indragiri Hulu (3%)
• Indragiri Hulu (0.5%)
• Kampar, Pelalawan Source: Khor Reports Data: Transparent World (2015),
“Indonesia Peat Lands” (2012).
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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 Preliminary analysis: moderate positive correlation for HDI and % of OP planted area
across Indonesian provinces (ex-Java)

• The data yields an apparent

Ex-Java Province OP Area % vs. HDI
“flying geese” formation:
78
SULAWESI UTARA
− Against poverty ratio, weak-
KALIMANTAN TIMUR RIAU
KEP. RIAU
moderate downhill (negative)
76
KALIMANTAN TENGAH
-0.38 correlation
SUMATERA UTARA
SUMATERA BARAT − Against Human Development
KALIMANTAN UTARA SUMATERA SELATAN
74
JAMBI Index (HDI) a moderate uphill
KEP. BANGKA BELITUNG
SULAWESI SELATAN
ACEH
BENGKULU
(positive) +0.48 correlation
LAMPUNG Case study area where OP is a
MALUKU
SULAWESI TENGAH • Other factors affecting HDI
72 major source of income.
SULAWESI TENGGARA
GORONTALO
KALIMANTAN SELATAN
Availability of secondary income outcomes:
HDI

PAPUA BARAT SULAWESI BARAT KALIMANTAN BARAT

source and other economic − Stage of development (urban-
70
MALUKU UTARA factors also affect HDI outcomes industrial evolution)
NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR − Other economic opportunities
68 (oil & gas, mining,
NUSA TENGGARA BARAT
manufacturing)
PAPUA − Additional sources of
66
secondary income (other
agriculture, services)
64
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
• HDI’s 3 indicators (life
OP as % of Total Area of Province expectancy, years of schooling,
Source: Khor Reports Data: Khor Reports estimates, Transparent World (2015), BPS (2013). income per capita) relate to SDG
Note: Sources of income include oil palm, other tree plantation crops and agriculture, services and 1–4
those relating to the urban-industrial sector.
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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 MAJOR FINDINGS
Combining geospatial data and official statistics to create an understanding of SDGs and “no deforestation, no peat, no
exploitation” data-points at sub-national and local administrative levels. This supports landscape and area risk analysis.

1. There is a tendency to overstate “deforestation” for tree plantation zones in long-in-use areas. Analysts need to distinguish
brownfield vs greenfield land use change in tree zones. *Hotspots are often overstated as fires. More data filtering needed.
2. Overall, palm oil has been good for Indonesia society. Provincial comparison shows Riau & North Sumatra as leaders. Riau’s
kabupatens benefit from rising-converging outcomes in socio-economic development; but structural economic issues must be
accounted for e.g. unemployment/under-employment.
3. International stakeholders can be informed by empirical data; a need to recognise the real time-scale narrative of socio-
economic development. Project developers and local authorities concerned with human development can plan to minimise
localised impact from land use change. E.g. more schools, hospital beds for a surge in migrant workforce. Development by large
plantations may be more orderly.
HDI for selected provinces ex-Java, 1996-2013 Riau’s HDI, 1996-2013
80.0 80.0

75.0

70.0
70.0

65.0
60.0
1996 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013
60.0 Kuantan Singingi Indragiri Hulu
1996 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 Indragiri Hilir (Coastal, SHP*) Pelalawan (Coastal)
Siak (Coastal) Kampar
GORONTALO KALIMANTAN BARAT RIAU Rokan Hulu Bengkalis (Coastal, SHP*)
PAPUA LAMPUNG SUMATERA UTARA Rokan Hilir (Coastal, SHP*) Kota Pekan Baru
ACEH Kota Dumai (Coastal)
Source: Khor Reports Data: BPS 9
Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
 BICC, The Westin Resort Nusa Dua, Bali
25 - 27 April 2018

Thank You
yuleng@segi-enam.com
https://www.khor-reports.com/

Geo-economic data: supply-chain & competitive analysis,

customised NDPE-SDG indicators for business landscapes,
socio-economic & area risk analysis

KHOR Reports
Data & Maps
 • International geo-economics and sustainable supply-chain consultant based in Singapore.
Bio-data • She has advised Fortune 500 companies and made reports for regional plantation groups, NGOs, state
Yu Leng authorities and business associations. She is also engaged with the paper, wood and rubber sectors.
Yu Leng started her career in the financial industry.
KHOR
• She has presented at the European Commission in Brussels, L’Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences
Sociales (EHESS, Paris), Cambridge University, the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (Singapore), University of
Malaya and at industry conferences and business forums on sustainability and trade policy.
• Yu Leng has conducted research in many regions and countries including the EU, China, India,
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (including Papua), Singapore, Philippines,
PNG and West Africa.
• 2014-2017, she served as Research Head for Southeast Asia at LMC International Ltd. She has led
multi-country market research and economic consulting projects; and executes deep-dive risk analysis
studies. In geo-economics, she works on landscape risk analysis and socio-economic indicators for
SDGs and more.
• She was trained as an industrial and political economist at Oxford University and at the London School
of Economics, with dissertations on rubber and smallholders. She has recently published several
academic articles and book chapters on smallholders, sustainability and regional development. Yu
Leng spent her formative years in Suharto’s Indonesia and worked in Mahathir’s Malaysia before
moving her work base to Singapore.

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 An inventory of projects (work in progress, 2018)

1. Historical geospatial analysis of palm oil production zones in Johor and Sabah states, Malaysia
2. Contemporary geospatial analysis of palm oil production zones in Indonesia, Malaysia; special focus on sub-
national production zones North Sumatra, Riau, West Kalimantan
3. Comparison of landscape analysis and socio-economic indicators (e.g. HDI, poverty, SDG)
4. Analysis of fire incidences in West Kalimantan, Indonesia and Sarawak, Malaysia
5. Historical land-use analysis to track rate of development in Kedah and Kelantan states, Malaysia; comparing
geospatial data with financial information
6. Landscape analysis of over 55 million hectares of production zones across Indonesia and Malaysia
7. Estimation of supply chain volumes for palm and wood products originating from Borneo
8. Social media and sentiment analysis of palm oil vs. other oil seeds

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Khor Reports, Data & Maps - (c) 2018 Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.