Indicators of National Development

DPA 607 Marc Louie M. Almario, RND, EnP, MPA

The Long-Term Vision
Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century

• Asia will nearly double its share of

global GDP to over 50%.
107,600

• Asia’s per capita income will rise

six-fold from 2010 to 2050 and will
exceed the global average 66 ,700

• 7 economies will lead Asia’s march 47 ,800

41 ,700
to prosperity (South Korea, Japan, 37 ,400
33 ,800
China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia 26 ,900
22 ,900
and Thailand) 22 ,700

• The Philippines will be overtaken by

India and Viet Nam; will be in the
company of Mongolia and
Cambodia.
Figure 3: Projections of Per Capita GDP (constant 2010 PPP) of Selected Asian Economies in 2050
Source of basic data: ADB Publication – Asia 2050
• A long-term (25 years) vision of Filipinos.
• It is a vision, NOT a plan.
• An anchor for development planning across
administrations (Executive Order No. 5)
• A guide for engaging with international development
partners.

4
Survey
The Long-term Vision (LTV)
FGD
process
1. Advisory Committee
• composed of representatives from the government,
private sector, the academe, and civil society guided
the overall implementation of the visioning exercise
2. Public consultations
• 42 FGDs with marginalized groups (C. David)
• National Survey 15-50 years old (n=10,000; PSRC)
3. Technical studies
• Thematic study team organized (led by Dr. R. Clarete)
4. Communication & advocacy
• Online social media engagement
• Public forums
The Life We Want
Matatag
• Living together with family
• Time with family and friends
(work/life balance)
Maginhawa Panatag
• Freedom from hunger • Security of place
and poverty • Resources adequate for day-
• Guaranteed mobility to-day needs and unexpected
• Secure home ownership expenses
• Travel and vacation • Passive income during
opportunities retirement
An overwhelming majority of
Filipinos aspire for a simple and 3.9 %
Life of the Rich
comfortable life…
16.9 %
Prosperous or Affluent Life

79.2 %
Simple and Comfortable Life

7
What is a “simple and comfortable” life ?

Own at least Decent work Relax with

one car family and
friends

All children are

Have enough college-educated Business
money for day- owner
to-day needs

Able to take
Own a occasional trips
medium-sized around the country
home

8
What is a “simple and comfortable” life ?

P 120,000
Gross Monthly Family Income

5,000 25,000
Own one car Income Tax
10,000
All children are
college-educated

40,000 4,000
Relax with family
Have enough money
and friends
for day-to-day needs

30,000 6,000
Own a medium-sized Able to take occasional
home trips around the country
9
Vision for the Country:
Hunger, local employment and poverty are the main
socioeconomic issues that should be addressed
No one is hungry 64
All Filipinos have a chance for adequate jobs.... 51
No one is poor 50
Everyone can get treatment when sick 50
38
All Filipino families have their own house 36
Everyone has modern lifestyle 17
The country is a world leader in science 10

Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)

 Eradication of corruption is the most important aspect of
governance that should be addressed

Eradication of Corruption 82 16 11 98 2 96
Fair enforcement of the law 76 22 2 98 2 96

Fast and easy processes 74 24 2 98 2 96

Order and Safety in the... 72 26 21 97 3 94
Fast response towards... 72 25 21 97 3 94
Enough avenues to be able... 69 28 21 97 3 94

Slightly important Slightly not important Definitely not important

Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)

 Vision for Country
“By 2040, the Philippines shall be a prosperous,
predominantly middle-class society where no one is poor.
Our peoples will enjoy long and healthy lives, are smart and
innovative, and will live in a high-trust society”
From vision to action

2035-
2029- 2040
2023- 2034
• Requires strong ownership and buy-in by stakeholders and
2028 the country’s leaders over the next 25 years
2017- • Each plan must build on previous plan, not change it
2022 unnecessarily
• Needs and preferences may change over time
• Unexpected developments may arise (e.g. climate, science
& technology)

13
Asia 2050: We can change the future!

The Philippines can join Asia’s march to prosperity!

Rationale and Legal Basis
Executive Order No. 5 (s. 2016): “Approving and Adopting the 25-Year Long-
Term Vision Entitled Ambisyon Natin 2040 as a Guide For Development Planning”

Section 2. Overall Long-term Goals

The Philippine Government hereby aims to triple per capita incomes and
eradicate hunger and poverty by 2040, if not sooner. An appropriate set of
milestones shall be identified to guide the successive medium-term development
plans.
Section 3. Medium-Term Philippine Development Plans
The four (4) medium-term Philippine Development Plans, hereafter to be
referred to as Philippine Development Plans (PDPs), to be crafted and
implemented until 2040 shall be anchored on the Ambisyon Natin 2040 and
overall goals. The PDPs shall ensure sustainability and consistency of strategies,
policies, programs and projects across political administrations.
Section 4. Consistent Government Plans
All Plans of government departments, offices and instrumentalities, including
government-owned or controlled corporations and local government units, shall
be consistent with Ambisyon Natin 2040.
Rationale and Legal Basis
Memorandum Circular No. 12, s. 2016:
“Directing the Formulation of the Philippine Development Plan and
the Public Investment Program for the Period 2017-2022”

To formally commence the formulation of the PDP, the President

issued Memorandum Circular No. 12 on 24 October 2016
directing the NEDA Secretariat to coordinate the formulation of
the country’s national and regional development plans and the
accompanying investment programs, and monitor their
implementation.
PH Economic
Development
PH economic growth in sharp upward trajectory…
Figure 1. Philippine economic growth rate, 1980-2017.

6.7%
2010-2015
2000-2009

1990-1999 4.5% 6.2%

1980-1989
8 FULL YEAR 2017
6 2.0% 2.8% GDP GROWTH
4

-2

-4

-6

-8

2011
2009
2010

2012
2013
2014
2015
1981

1988

1996

2004
1980

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Rising contribution from investments and industry
Figure 2. Contributors to Growth
Demand Side Supply Side

6.3% 6.7% 6.7%

6.3%

Ave. growth 3.0 2.5

4.5% 4.5%

2.8% 0.7
0.4 2.8%

2.5
2.4
1.2
1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2016 FY 2017 0.7

1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2016 FY 2017

Household Consumption Government Investment Net Exports Agriculture Industry Services

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

Total factor productivity has been fastest in the ASEAN
Figure 3. Ave. Total Factor Productivity Growth (%), 2010 – 2014.

Source: Asian Productivity Organization – Productivity Databook 2016

 While macroeconomy appears robust, marked inequality across
regions remains, and chronic poverty persists.

Figure 4. Regional per capita income Figure 5. Poverty incidence for individuals
(constant prices): 2009, 2015 & 2016 residing in urban areas, by region in 2015

Photo source: Aljazeera.com

 Figure 6. Average Regional Share in GDP, 2010-2016

15% SHARE OF
MINDANAO TO
GDP

Photo source: Aljazeera.com

 Vision for the Philippines by 2040
A prosperous middle-class society where no one is poor.
People enjoy long and healthy lives and are smart and
innovative. The country is a high-trust society where
families thrive in vibrant, culturally diverse, and resilient
communities.
 Philippine
Development
Plan 2017-2022

24
 MATATAG, MAGINHAWA AT PANATAG NA BUHAY

TO LAY DOWN THE FOUNDATION FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH, A HIGH-TRUST

SOCIETY, AND A GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

“MALASAKIT” “PAGBABAGO” “PATULOY NA PAG-UNLAD”

ENHANCING THE INEQUALITY-REDUCING INCREASING GROWTH
SOCIAL FABRIC TRANSFORMATION POTENTIAL

Ensure people-centered, Expand Increase access Promote Stimulate

clean, and efficient economic to economic technology innovation
governance opportunities opportunities adoption

IMPLEMENT STRATEGIC TRADE AND FISCAL POLICY, MAINTAIN

Pursue swift and fair
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, PROMOTE COMPETITION
administration of justice

Promote Philippine Accelerate Reduce Maximize demographic

culture and values human capital vulnerability of dividend
development individuals

Ensure peace and Accelerate strategic Ensure ecological

Ensure safety and
security infrastructure integrity, clean and
build resilience
development healthy environment
 THE PHILIPPINES BY 2022
The Philippines will be an upper middle income country. The
GDP growth is expected to strengthen further to 7-8%. Per capita
income will increase from USD 3,550 in 2015 to at least USD 5,000
in 2022.
Overall poverty rate will decline from 21.6% to
14.0% in 2022 – equivalent to lifting about 6 million
Filipinos out of poverty.

The unemployment rate will decline from

the current 5.5% to 3-5%.
 Growing output and employment are the preconditions for
progress in almost all social and economic aspects of
development. Productive employment and rising incomes for the
vast majority over a long period can do more to combat poverty
decisively than any direct assistance government can ever
provide.
• It is private actors – from the smallest self-employed entrepreneurs to
the largest conglomerates – that create productive jobs and incomes.

• Government’s responsibility however – through fiscal and monetary

policies – is to create an environment for vigorous economic activity,
as well as to ensure that enough gains from growth are set aside for
larger social purposes or channeled into social investments that
facilitate future growth.

• These objectives are achieved by government decisions regarding the

size and direction of public spending and taxation (fiscal policy) and
by decisions regarding the control of the nation’s money supply
(monetary policy).
Philippine Key Indicators
Summary of Fiscal Sector Indicators: 2004-2010 (in million PhP)
• Low levels of spending on education, health and infrastructure
largely and generally reflected the low level of government public
expenditure. Low spending for social sectors caused poor
outcomes in these areas and meant higher costs for the population
who must spend for what government ought to have provided.

• GOCCs continue to be a large source of fiscal risk. As of end of

2008, their total liabilities (excluding those of the BSP) amounted
to 36.9 percent of GDP. GOCCs are frequently directed to bear the
cost of social programs that should ideally be funded out of the
budget.
• The monetary policy stance remains supportive of noninflationary
growth. Credit remains adequate in supporting economic activity.
This is evident in the steady uptrend in bank lending and smooth
functioning of domestic financial markets. Low and stable inflation
has also contributed to lower costs of funds in the market,
supporting investment and consumption expenditures by firms and
households.

• Bright prospects for emerging economies combined with the

prolonged accommodative monetary policies in advanced
economies have driven large capital inflows into emerging
economies, including the Philippines.
• The key challenge in the area of expenditure policy is how to
substantially increase productive expenditures, such as those for
infrastructure and social services (e.g., education and health) – and
catch up with the accumulated investment deficits in these areas –
while at the same time aggressively reducing wasteful and
inefficient expenditures.

• The Plan envisions the implementation of several major public

expenditure management reforms not only to help narrow the
fiscal deficit over the medium term but also ensure that resources
are allocated to priority investments, such as human capital and
infrastructure.
• Monetary policy will remain committed to the achievement of low
and stable inflation that is conducive to a balanced and sustainable
growth of output and employment.

• This stance entails continuous macroeconomic surveillance efforts

for a more effective management of risks. At the same time,
monetary authorities will continue to improve their communication
of policy intentions and actions.
Several measures of competitiveness reveal fundamental weaknesses
in major development aspects compared to the rest of the world.
Compared with its neighbours, the country’s economic performance
in terms of investments, exports and competitiveness is
unsatisfactory and need to be reversed. The Philippine economy over
the past years has been characterized by a reduced share of
manufacturing sector in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP)
and declining gross domestic investment rate.
• Enabling the industry and services sectors to contribute significantly to
economic growth and employment requires addressing a number of
constraints to their development. Strategies shall therefore be pursued to
help raise the competitiveness of industries by improving the business
environment; raising productivity and efficiency and inculcating quality
consciousness among manufacturers and producers to offer quality goods
and services comparable with global brands.

• Business competitiveness will be enhanced by improving governance,

strengthening economic zones, and strengthening national brand
identity/awareness. To increase productivity and efficiency, government
shall focus interventions on key priority areas, provide firm level support to
MSMEs, increase market access, expand industry cluster development and
intensify the culture of competitiveness. Proactive measures to empower
consumers, promote competition and enforce trade regulations shall also
be pursued.
Cost of Doing Business Indicators
• The BPO industry is acknowledged as a driving force for economic
growth and employment in the country.

• In the midst of global and national economic, political and social

upheavals, the tourism sector remained resilient.

• The Philippine MSME sector is a critical driver for the country’s

economic growth. However, the growth of the MSME sector has
not been vigorous enough to propel the economy.

• Increasing the national awareness of consumer rights,

responsibilities and options for redress encourages a vibrant sector
that will demand better products and services.
Strategic Framework For Industry and Services
• The Philippines needs to be known as a country offering vast
opportunities for trade and tourism and will be promoted as a
conducive investment haven that is now open for business.

• The government shall pursue innovation as an essential factor in

harnessing culture of competitiveness.

• With its limited resources, Government shall focus its interventions

on key areas that are job generating, where the country enjoys
comparative advantage, and with high growth potential.

• The government shall continue to implement the national

innovation strategy called Filipinnovation.
• The government shall pursue market access through effective
bilateral, multilateral and regional engagements and
representation, and maximize opportunities offered by existing
trade agreements.

• Proactive measures to empower consumers, promote competition,

and enforce trade regulations shall be pursued.

• The entire supply chain shall be improved to reduce production

and distribution cost of basic and prime commodities
 Good governance sets the normative standards of development. It
fosters participation, ensures transparency, demands accountability,
promotes efficiency, and upholds the rule of law in economic, political
and administrative institutions and processes. It is a hallmark of
political maturity but also a requisite for growth and poverty
reduction, for there are irreducible minimum levels of governance
needed for large-scale investment to occur and for social programs to
be supported.
• A cornerstone of good governance is adherence to the rule of law,
that is, the impersonal and impartial application of stable and
predictable laws, statutes, rules, and regulations, without regard
for social status or political considerations.

• This chapter assesses the quality of governance in the country and

identifies key governance challenges that constrain development. It
then lays down corresponding strategies to achieve good
governance anchored on the rule of law, and provide an enabling
environment for national development.
Philippines: Worldwide Governance Indicators
Public Service Delivery

• The delivery of public services must be prompt and adequate to

citizens’ needs.

• Cumbersome government procedures slow down the delivery of

public service and increase transaction costs. The same arduous
government processes also provide the venues for corruption,
given the natural tendency to avoid the bureaucratic red tape.

• The Anti-Red Tape Act (ARTA) of 2007 already requires national

departments, agencies, and LGUs to set up their respective service
standards known as Citizen’s Charters (CCs), to simplify procedures,
and to facilitate transactions.
• As a means to develop citizens’ awareness of their rights vis-à-vis
government and encouraging citizens’ criticisms when aggrieved,
this is one step towards cutting red tape and reducing corruption.
However, This is unlikely to be sufficient.

Integrity

• The law assigns the Office of the Ombudsman (OMB) a pivotal role
in ensuring integrity and deterring corruption in the public sector.
The threat of prosecution and conviction of public wrong-doers is a
potent sanction against corruption.

• Investors have pointed to corruption as the most problematic

factor for doing business in the Philippines.
Rule of Law

• Justice is no less important a public good than basic education and

primary health care. The framework of the rule of law serves as the
foundation for a democratic society. Its effect on economic
performance, social development and integrity infrastructure of the
country is pervasive.

• According to the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2010,

however, the Philippines ranked last or close to the bottom among
seven indexed Asian countries. The country ranked last in such factors
such as “order and security”, “fundamental rights”, and “effective
criminal justice”; it was second to the last in the “absence of
corruption”, “clear, publicized and stable laws”, “regulatory
enforcement”, and “access to civil justice”.
Rule of Law

• The weak rule of law and an unresponsive justice system hinder

economic development. Delays in resolving corruption cases, the
high cost of litigation, and the long and arduous legal process have
resulted in the diminution of public trust and confidence in
government and the justice system.

• Another factor affecting investors’ confidence pertains to disputes

arising from unmet contractual obligations and the proper
enforcement of property rights, including those of foreigners.
Major reasons for the lack of responsiveness of the justice system
include its fragmentation, the presence of archaic laws and rules,
and low funding support.
Citizens’ Participation

• Citizens’ participation has been one of the strengths of Philippine

governance. Partnerships between government and CSOs facilitate
the promotion of good governance.

• The government also partners with CSOs in promoting

transparency, accountability and public participation in the
preparation, authorization, execution and monitoring of the
national budget. These efforts must be sustained and, in some
cases, deepened. It is also noted that while citizens’ participation in
local development councils and special bodies is mandated, CSOs
claim that most of these are either inoperative or nominal.
Political Processes and Systems

• The problems of lack of accountability and corruption in governance

are ultimately traceable to the country’s historically evolved political
processes and traditions.

• But while constitutional changes to institute crucial political and

economic reforms may be in order, it is inadvisable to do so in an
atmosphere of public mistrust and suspicion that such changes will be
self-serving to the incumbents.

• As the government performs creditably, the matter of constitutional

reform may be taken up. Even short of constitutional change,
however, important reforms should be put in place by statute.
Gender Roles in Governance Structures

• The fact that women remain politically marginalized is both an indicator

of their failure to advance as well as a reason for it (UNDP 2000).

• For the ability to claim entitlements and exercise rights is itself based on
gender roles and relations of unequal power. Women’s “gendered
interests” (for example health needs, the raising of children, and the
prevention of domestic violence) cannot be interpreted generically as
the community or nation’s “common good” but as issues arising from
the specific inequality of power between men and women (Sever 2005).

• These needs and deprivations cannot be addressed therefore without

redressing gender inequality itself.
Strategic Framework

The aim is to promote effective and honest governance to create an

enabling environment for citizens and the private sector to reach their
full potential. Effective and honest governance will be promoted and
practiced through the following four strategies:

1. Ensure high-quality, efficient, transparent, accountable, financially

and physically accessible and nondiscriminatory delivery of public
service;
2. Curb both bureaucratic and political corruption;
3. Strengthen the rule of law; and
4. Enhance citizens’ access to information and participation in
governance.
 To be sure, immediate problems and obstacles remain, chief of which are the
country’s lagging rate of investment, the government’s continuing fiscal
constraints and heavy debt burden, the country’s poor quality of infrastructure,
and stagnating levels of human capital. But many of these phenomena have
existed long before and are in the nature of consequences rather than causes.
Undeniable is the fact that some hopeful conditions have emerged, and that
economic and political opportunities now exist for a real change – a break-away
from the cycle of mass poverty, social division, and political conflict that have
been the hallmarks of the country’s recent history.
References
• Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 Midterm Update.
http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/phi140998.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 http://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-
content/uploads/2013/09/CHAPTER-1.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 http://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-
content/uploads/2013/09/CHAPTER-2.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 http://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-
content/uploads/2013/09/CHAPTER-3.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 http://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-
content/uploads/2013/09/CHAPTER-7.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022. http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/phi169293.pdf
• Philippine Development Plan Abridged Version. http://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-
content/uploads/2017/12/Abridged-PDP-2017-2022_Final.pdf