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2
EPDM PE
PET
PP PBT
PVC
PBAT
Propylene MEG
PU Natural Rubber
Lysine
HDMA Plant oils 5-HMF/
PA 5-CMF 2,5-FDCA/
PTF
Hemicellulose FDME
DN5
Levulinic
Caprolactam Fatty acids acid
Glycerol Aniline
Furfural PU
Furfuryl
MPG alcohol
PFA
NOPs LCDA
Epichlorohydrin Polyols
PHA
Natural Rubber
UPR
Starch-based Polymers
Lignin-based Polymers PA
Cellulose-based Polymers
Epoxy resins
PU PU PU
Authors:
Raj Chinthapalli, Pia Skoczinski, Michael Carus, Wolfgang Baltus,
Doris de Guzman, Harald Käb, Achim Raschka, Jan Ravenstijn
February 2019
This is the short version of the market study (380 pages, € 3,000).
Both are available at www.bio-based.eu/reports.
Table of Contents
Global Markets and Trends of Bio-based Building
Blocks and Polymers 2018 – 2023
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Bio-based Polymers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Bio-based Building Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Global production capacities of bio-based polymers
by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Market segments for bio-based polymers. . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Imprint Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Bio-based Building Blocks nova-Institute. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
and Polymers – Global Capacities,
Production and Trends 2018 – 2023
Publisher
Michael Carus (V.i.S.d.P.)
nova-Institut GmbH
Chemiepark Knapsack
Industriestraße 300
50354 Hürth, Germany
Layout Edition
Norma Sott 2019-02
The new market and trend report “Bio- The production of bio-based polymers
based Building Blocks and Polymers – has become much more professional and
Global Capacities, Production and Trends differentiated in recent years. By now, there
2018 – 2023” from the German nova-Institute is a bio-based alternative for practically every
shows capacities and for the first time also application. The capacities and production of
production data for all bio-based polymers. bio-based polymers will continue to grow with
In 2018 the total production volume reached an expected CAGR of about 4% until 2023,
7.5 million tonnes – these are already 2% almost at about the same rate as petrochemical
of the production volume of petrochemical polymers and plastics Therefore, the market
polymers. The potential is much higher, but share of bio-based polymers in the total polymer
is currently hampered by low oil prices and and plastics market remains constant at around
a lack of political support. 2% (Figure 1).
250
200
150
100
50
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
The increase in production capacity is mainly The most important market drivers in 2018
based on the expansion of the polylactic were brands that want to offer their customers
acid (PLA) production in Thailand, the environmentally friendly solutions and
polytrimethylene terephthalate (PTT) and starch critical consumers looking for alternatives to
blends in US. Especially PLA and starch blends petrochemicals. If bio-based polymers were to be
will continue to grow significantly until 2023. accepted as a solution and promoted in a similar
Also new capacities of bio-based polyamides, way as biofuels, annual growth rates of 10 to
polyethylene (PE) and, for the first time, 20% could be expected. The same applies as
polypropylene (PP) and poly(butylene adipate- soon as the price of oil rises significantly. Based
co-terephthalate) (PBAT). The great hopeful on the already existing technical maturity of
polyethylene furanoate (PEF) will presumably bio-based polymers, considerable market shares
only be able to offer commercial capacities after can then be gained.
2023.
Overall, the market environment remains The market report is updated every year
challenging with low crude oil prices and little and the update for the year 2018 offers very
political support. special highlights: It contains comprehensive
information on capacity development from
■■ So far, the two major advantages of 2018 to 2023, per bio-based building block and
bio-based polymers have not been polymer and for the first time production data for
politically rewarded. The first advantage the year 2018, per bio-based polymer. A total of
is that bio-based polymers replace fossil 17 bio-based building blocks and 16 polymers
carbon in the production process with are covered in the report. In addition, the new
renewable carbon from biomass. This is issue includes analyses of market developments
indispensable for a sustainable, climate- and producers per building block and polymer,
friendly plastics industry and is not yet so that readers can quickly gain an overview
politically rewarded. of developments that go far beyond capacity
and production figures. For the first time, a
■■ The second advantage is offered by detailed research, calculation and explanation
about a quarter of bio-based polymer of the market development of cellulose acetate
production: They are biodegradable (CA), bio-based epoxy resins and bio-based
(depending on the environment) and polyurethanes was made possible through a
can therefore be a solution for plastics cooperation with the main experts in this area.
that cannot be collected and enter the The deep dive into the producing companies
environment where they can biodegrade was comprehensively updated and shows now
without leaving behind microplastics. 173 detailed company profiles – from start-ups
Only a few countries such as Italy, to multinational corporations.
France and, in future probably Spain
will politically support this additional The data published annually by European
disposal path. Bioplastics (www.european-bioplastics.org/
market/) are taken from the market report of
the nova-Institute, but with a reduced selection
of bio-based polymers.
Bio-based Polymers
Figure 2 shows all commercially realized As in previous years, we have added several
pathways from biomass via different building pathways and some new intermediates.
blocks and monomers to bio-based polymers.
EPDM PE
PET
PP PBT
PVC
PBAT
Propylene MEG
PU Natural Rubber
Lysine
HDMA Plant oils 5-HMF/
PA 5-CMF 2,5-FDCA/
PTF
Hemicellulose FDME
DN5
Levulinic
Caprolactam Fatty acids acid
Glycerol Aniline
Furfural PU
Furfuryl
MPG alcohol
PFA
NOPs LCDA
Epichlorohydrin Polyols
PHA
Natural Rubber
UPR
Starch-based Polymers
Lignin-based Polymers PA
Cellulose-based Polymers
Epoxy resins
PU PU PU
Coal / Syngas / FT
Dedicated
CA
PEF
PHA
PLA
PUR – based on NOPs
Starch blends
New
Chemicals
Figure 3: S chematic differentiation of pathways of drop-in, smart drop-in and dedicated bio-based
chemicals.1 Selected bio-based polymer examples are shown for each classification group.
Figure 3 shows the different pathways of bio- producers. Here an increase is shown from 8
based “drop-in”, “smart drop-in” and “dedicated” Mio. tonnes production capacity in 2018 to 9.6
inputs within the chemical production chain. Mio. tonnes in 2023, which means an expected
For each group certain bio-based polymers are yearly growth rate of about 4% (CAGR).
exemplarily shown. The different bio-based
polymer groups are subject to different market With an expected CAGR of 10% between 2018
dynamics. While the drop-ins have direct and 2023, Europe will display the highest growth
petrochemical counterparts and can substitute of bio-based polymer capacities compared to
them, the dedicated ones have new properties other regions of the world (see Figure 7).
and functionalities that petrochemistry does not If only the new dedicated polymers (for
provide. Both have their own advantages and definition see Figure 3) are considered, the
disadvantages from a production and market growth rates are expected to be even higher
perspective. (CAGR = 5%), as Figure 5 shows. In the group
of dedicated bio-based polymers, price pressure
Figure 4 summarises the results of the results of stemming from cheap crude oil is lower than
the 380-page report and shows the development for other groups because there are no direct
of capacities from 2018 to 2023 on the basis petrochemical counterparts.
of forecasts by current and some additional
1 Source: Carus, M. et al.: Bio-based drop-in, smart drop-in and dedicated chemicals. Version 2017-12.
Free download at: www.bio-based.eu/technology).
8
2018 Epoxy resins
Ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber (EPDM)
Poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT)
Polyamides (PA)
6 Polybutylene succinate (PBS) and copolymers
Polyethylene (PE)
Polyethylene furanoate (PEF)
4 Polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA)
Polylactic acid (PLA)
2 Polypropylene (PP)
Polytrimethylene terephthalate (PTT)
Polyurethanes (PUR)
0 Starch blends
7
2023
Production capacities (million tonnes)
5
2018
4
3
Aliphatic polycarbonates (APC) – cyclic
Cellulose acetate (CA)
2 Polyethylene furanoate (PEF)
Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA)
1 Polylactic acid (PLA)
Polyurethanes (PUR) – based on NOPs
0 Starch blends
Figure 6 illustrates the development of capacities The building blocks can be used in structural
for the main bio-based building blocks, the core polymers as well as in functional polymers (for
of the new bioeconomy, used for the production definition see below) and also in various other
of polymers. Between 2018 and 2023, the applications such as food, feed, cosmetics or
CAGR of 4.5% will be only slightly higher than pharmaceuticals.
that of bio-based polymers (4%) as a whole.
Figure 6: Bio-based building blocks – Evolution of worldwide production capacities from 2011 to 2023
Besides the leading Asian region which has with 17% respectively 11%. In the next five
installed the largest bio-based production years, the share of Europe will rise to 25% until
capacities worldwide with 53% in 2018, Europe 2023 – all other regions will face decreasing
follows with 18% and North and South America shares (see Figure 7).
1% 1%
9% America – North
11%
2018 2023 America – South
Asia
Europe
53% 50% Oceania
Figure 7: G
lobal production capacities of bio-based polymers by region in 2018 and 2023 (excluding
polyurethanes, epoxy resins and cellulose acetate)
This increase is mainly due to the dedicated This shows that the substantial investment in
bio-based polymers PEF, PHA, PLA and starch research and development in Europe is bearing
blends as well as the new established bio-based fruit. Now, if the political framework were
production capacity of PP, the increase in PE designed more favourably, the bioeconomy in
capacity and an increase in polyamides and Europe could really flourish. Technology and
PBAT. business are ready.
Today, bio-based polymers can be used in almost Figure 8 shows a summary of the applications
all market segments and applications, but the for all polymers.
applications per polymer are very different.
1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Consumer goods
2% 2%
Building and construction
Figure 8: Shares of the produced bio-based polymers in different market segments in 2018 and 2023
Consumer goods make up the largest share of resins, PA, PUR) and the packaging (flexible and
actually produced bio-based polymers with rigid) (PLA, PBAT, PE, PET, starch blends)
28% in 2018 (mainly PUR, epoxy resins and with 15%, as well as textiles (wovens and non-
PA), followed by the building and construction wovens) (CA, PA, PLA, PTT) with 11%. For
sector (epoxy resins, PA, PUR) with 21%, the 2023, no significant changes are expected with
automotive and transport sector with 19% (epoxy regard to market application shares.
19 TE
19 TE
DA
DA
ta
UP
UP
Da
20
20
20
Bio-based Building Blocks Carbon dioxide (CO2) as chemical
Bio-based Building Blocks Succinic acid: New bio-based
and Polymers – Global Capacities, feedstock for polymers – technologies,
and Polymers – Global Capacities building block with a huge market
Production and Trends 2018 – 2023 polymers, developers and producers
and Trends 2017-2022 and environmental potential?
EPDM PE
Pharmaceutical/Cosmetic Industrial
PET
PP PBT
PVC
PBAT
Propylene MEG
■ Acidic ingredient for denture cleaner/toothpaste ■ De-icer
Bio-based
Vinyl Chloride polymers:
Ethylene
Terephthalic
acid PEF ■ Antidote ■ Engineering plastics and epoxy curing
EvolutionPMMA
of worldwide production capacities from THF
p-Xylene
2011 toSBR
2022 PU ■ Calcium-succinate is anticarcinogenic agents/hardeners
PET-like
Methyl
Metacrylate
■ Efferescent tablets ■ Herbicides, fungicides, regulators of plantgrowth
6 Intermediate for perfumes Intermediate for lacquers + photographic chemicals
Million Tonnes
Ethanol PBS(X) ■ ■
PU Isosorbide Isobutanol 1,4-Butanediol
Sorbitol
■ Pharmaceutical intermediates (sedatives, ■ Plasticizer (replaces phtalates, adipic acid)
APC
antiphlegm/-phogistics, antibacterial, disinfectant) ■ Polymers
Glucose
5 PHA Succinic acid Dedicated ■ Preservative for toiletries ■ Solvents, lubricants
1,3 Propanediol
3-HP
Drop-in ■ Removes fish odour ■ Surface cleaning agent
PTT Smart Drop-in Superabsorbent
Polymers
■ Used in the preparation of vitamin A (metal-/electronic-/semiconductor-industry)
4 PTF Fructose Acrylic acid
Starch Saccharose
Lactic
PLA
Succinic
acid Adipic Itaconic
Lignocellulose ABS
acid acid
Authors: Achim Raschka, Pia Skoczinski, Jan Ravenstijn and Authors: Raj Chinthapalli, Pia Skoczinski, Achim Raschka,
Michael Carus, nova-Institut GmbH, Germany Michael Carus, nova-Institut GmbH, Germany
Authors: February 2019 Update March 2019
Authors: Raj Chinthapalli,
Raj Chinthapalli, Michael Carus,
Pia Skoczinski, MichaelWolfgang Baltus, Baltus,
Carus, Wolfgang
Doris dede
Doris Guzman,
Guzman, Harald
HaraldKäb, Achim
Käb, AchimRaschka, Jan
Raschka, Ravenstijn,
Jan Ravenstijn This and other reports on the bio-based economy are available This and other reports on the bio-based economy are available
April 2018 2019
February at www.bio-based.eu/reports at www.bio-based.eu/reports
This and
This other
and reports
other onon
reports thethe
bio-based
bio- andeconomy areeconomy
CO2- based available are
at
www.bio-based.eu/reports
available at www.bio-based.eu/reports
3
revolutionary change
2,5
2
Jan Ravenstijn 2017
1,5
0,5
Picture: Gehr Kunststoffwerk
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sebacic
L-LA Epichlorohydrin MEG Ethylene
acid
1,3-PDO MPG Lactide E-mail: j.ravenstijn@kpnmail.nl
Succinic
acid
1,4-BDO 2,5-FDCA D-LA 11-Aminoundecanoic acid DDDA
Adipic
acid
Mobile: +31.6.2247.8593
© -Institut.eu | 2017 Full study available at www.bio-based.eu/reports
Author: Doris de Guzman, Tecnon OrbiChem, United Kingdom Author: Jan Ravenstijn, Jan Ravenstijn Consulting, the Netherlands
July 2017 Authors: Lara Dammer, Michael Carus and Dr. Asta Partanen April 2017
nova-Institut GmbH, Germany This and other reports on the bio-based economy are available at
This and other reports on the bio-based economy are available at
May 2017 www.bio-based.eu/reports
www.bio-based.eu/reports
This and other reports on the bio-based economy are available at
www.bio-based.eu/reports
60%
Bestsellers
40%
20%
0%
PBS(X) APC – PA PET PTT PBAT Starch PHA PLA PE
cyclic Blends
www.bio-based.eu/reports
© nova-Institut GmbH 2019 | Version 2019-02 | www.bio-based.eu/reports11
Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers – Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2018 – 2023
Authors
Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers – Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2018 – 2023
Political Framework
& Strategy
System Analysis
Strategic Consulting
Dissemination & Circular Economy
Marketing Support Raw Material Supply