12 Technologies & Actionable Knowledge For Disaster & Climate Change Resilience of Urban Environments Walter David PDF

NATO MODELLING & SIMULATION CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE
Lt. Col. Walter David, NATO M&S Centre of Excellence, Italy;

Judge Brindusa Andreea Sarbu, First Court District Bucharest Ministry of Justice, Romania;
Dr. Ilias Gkotsis, Center for Security Studies Ministry of Interior, Greece;
Dr. Athanasios Sfetsos, National Centre for Scientific Research “Demokritos”, Greece
Contact: Lt. Col. Walter David mscoe.cde08@smd.difesa.it
6th CMDR Interagency Interaction Conference,

Sofia, Bulgaria, 5-6 June 2018
NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Global Trends, Non-linear Relationships
References:
 At the Root of Exodus: Food Security, Conflict and International Migration (UN/WFP, 2017)
 Climate Change and Food Security: Risks and Responses (UN/FAO, 2016)
 “Areas more affected by natural hazards are also those that are most conflicts prone
……when natural hazards struck an area the reduction of food could lead to subsequent
conflicts” (Lana, 2015)
 Food insecurity greatly increases the risk of conflict (FAO, 2016), in some
cases leading to civil unrest (Brinkman and Hendrix, 2011)
Complexity of Cities’ Environment

• Global trends and threats are
modifying the urban paradigm
• Cities Increasingly under

pressure, due to climate change
and population growth
• Complexity of cities and

operations in cities
• At least 3 systems: Natural – Economic – Social

• Relevance of Technologies and Knowledge, learning in developing resilience to extreme
events
• Holling, 1973, extended resilience concept from engineer systems to social/ecological
systems. Resilience analysis is essential when risk is incomputable (when hazardous
conditions are a complete surprise)

Knowledge and Action

“ Games and simulations are an effective
way to learn and acquire Actionable
Knowledge regarding crisis and disasters
WISDOM
challenges ” (Menoni, 2017)
Knowledge and learning as core of KNOWLEDGE

Resilience
“Knowledge is embodied in a (social) INFORMATION
organism and embedded in action.

Knowledge is not information. DATA
Information is a description of action.
As an input, information contributes
to the product of knowledge (action)”
Wisdom is related to know-why
(Milan Zeleny in Knowledge-information Skills, Knowledge and Expertise
Autopoietic Cycle: Towards The Wisdom are related to know-how
Systems, Zeleny, 2006 ) or to know-what (Zeleny, 2006)
NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org 4
Resilience in practical terms
How Resilience can be actually translated into operational terms ?
Disaster Resilience = ability of a system to perform 4 functions with respect to adverse
events:
Planning & Preparation, Absorption, Recovery, Adaptation
(National Academy Science)
Network Centric Warfare doctrine can help, “focused on creating shared situational
awareness and decentralized decision-making by distributing information across
networks operating in the physical, information, cognitive, and social domains “
(Linkov et al., 2013)
 Physical: sensors, facilities, equipment, system states and capabilities.

 Information: creation, manipulation, data storage
 Cognitive: understanding, mental models, preconceptions, biases, values.
 Social: interaction, collaboration and self-synchronization between individuals
and entities (Linkov et al., 2013)

NATO MODELLING & SIMULATIONCENTRE OF EXCELLENCE
A Resilience Framework (Linkov, 2013)
prevention emergency recovery t

reconstruction
Previous cycle Plan Absorb Recover Adapt and learn
Provide Capacity to Availability of Change

emergency keep resources for organisational
Physical capabilities functioning repairs and design
factors
Information Updated Rapid Post disaster Maintainance of

information & reconnaissance damage data databases
maps of CI surveys collection
Lessons Learned
Identify and Fast detection Understanding Upgrading
Cognitive intervene on of domino l priorities procedures,
vulnerabilities effects learning from
failures
Organisational Organisationa Good Organisational

Social preparedness, l capacity to cooperation with learning, change
intervene and opublic procedures and
cooperate adminsitrations practices
Types of Capacities to be put in place to make Critical Infrastructures such as lifelines resilient to disasters.
In the different phases - different behaviors are required:
before the Event : to plan adequately, during Emergency: to absorb stress and respond,
during Recovery: fast return to normalcy even putting in place temporary repair measures.
In Reconstruction : learn from the event in order to revise procedures and design that proved unsuccessful
or unsatisfactory (Menoni, 2017)
Quantifying City Resilience

Coastal cities at risk. Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities (Simonovic, 2012)
Units of Community Resilience Analysis

Physical, Health, Economic,
Organizational, Social (PHEOS)
(Simonovic, Coastal Cities at Risk, 2012)
Dimensions of Resilience (t, s): time, space

Properties of Resilience (Physical and Social systems)
= ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (AC):
Robustness, Redundancy, Resourcefulness, Rapidity

Interactive Model for Operations in Metropolitan Areas -

IMOMA Reuse of “Archaria” GIS model (NATO Urbanisation project)
• Networks analysis: roads, transportations,
electric, water, telecomms
• Area analysis: i.e. buildings involved in
electrical blackout, flooding

Modelling City Critical Infrastructures

Ontology based on interconnection of selected layers
Main Analysis and features
The multimodal network ROUTE
is composed by different
type of transportation The Network can be used
to find the nearest or
systems:
fastest route between
two points in the map.
Railway
Metro SERVICE AREA
Cableway The Network can build a

Service Area which
Caves represents the distance in
minutes or meters from a
certain location.
Roads Example: simulate where
an offender can be X
minutes after an attack.
All network is connected
and is possible calculate
the movement in the city CLOSEST FACILITIES
selecting wich network We can find the closest
use (roads, metro, walk, facilities around a certain
etc.) location and the optimal
route to reach them.
Example: a wounded
person needs treatment:
find the nearest Hospital
for his/her recovery.

Megacity “Archaria” GIS - Sword Simulation

Simulator Terrain generation
System
Vector Ortophoto Digital Elevation Model
Data
GEO
DATABASE
Simulator Scenario generation
TOOLBOX

IMOMA Federation
Simulation Sword Simulation
Standardization allows the
Systems Integration of megacity GIS with
(standard) compliant C2 systems
and 3D viewer
HLA BUS
Google G
Middleware
Earth E M MSDL/CBML
toolkit
adaptor S
Connector
D
Decision Support System

L
C2 System
3D Viewer
Archaria
GIS &
Web app

3D City Model web app
2035 Metropolitan City 2D/3D Model

Creation, from which to extrapolate
possible scenarios to support the NATO
decision-making process.
Representation of the urban model using Geographic

Information System (GIS) tools 2D / 3D capable (ESRI SW).

NATO MODELLING & SIMULATION MSG-147 Architecture
CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE
IMOMA has been tested in the MSG-147 LOE 1A experiment, Oct 2017
Mathematical models
GIS, sensors, web-scraped, KNOWLEDGE & LEARNING
(non HLA-federable), HPAC,
historical data (Core of Resilience)
TIGER, etc..
Input module Disaster Modelling Module SOPs and Thresholds Module
DB for
RT from Disaster model Computed Defined
statistical SOPs Database
Sensors Repository Results Exporter Thresholds
data
CORE of HLA SIM Federated Simulations Tools

FEDERATION: and Systems
Sword, JCATS, VBS 3, ST-
CRISOM, etc.. Filtering and Distribution
Module
Applied Measures
Feedback SOPs Improvement
Common Operational Picture

(COP)
Disaster Risk Lessons Learned

Disaster Response
Management
Near real-time
social media,
tweets updates Decision Making Support

A pan - European framework for strengthening
Critical Infrastructure resilience to climate change
EU-CIRCLE

Climate Threats to CI - An Overview
• Faster degradation of performance

• Change in supply and demand profiles
• Increased vulnerability of infrastructures to a) physical damages ) impact
on humans (e.g. heatwaves), c) changes in operational profiles
Specific Examples
Sardinia Flooding
2013 – 2014 UK floods November 2013 – Cost ~ 700 mil Euros
Total cost claims to the insurance
business in the order of 0.5 – 1 bil. UK
pounds (according to ABI)
Greece Forest Fires

Cost ~1 bil. Euros (source EMDAT)
Impacts of extreme weather on the oil and gas sector

Extensive Mississippi River flooding May 2011.
The type of flooding is expected once
every 10-25 yrs, though it has occurred more
frequently restricting Rex Energy’s Operations

Resilience of Interconnected CI to Climate Change

defined as multi-dimensional components
Resilience of what ?
Critical Infrastructures Resilience Capacities
and their networks Anticipative Capacity
• Asset level
• Network level Absorptive Capacity
• City/region Coping Capacity
Resilience for what ? Restorative Capacity

Climatic Hazard (CH)
Adaptive Capacity
Disaster risks Capacities as one of main components

and impacts of resilience, since expanding capacities
will result in risk reduction
Resilience Capacities
The ability of the CI system to
anticipate and reduce the impact Anticipative Capacity
Absorptive Capacity
Coping Capacity
Restorative Capacity
Adaptive Capacity

The ability of CI system to buffer, bear Anticipative Capacity

and endure the impacts
Absorptive Capacity
Coping Capacity
Adaptive Capacity

The ability of CI system to face and Anticipative Capacity

manage adverse conditions using
available skills and resources
Absorptive Capacity
Coping Capacity
Adaptive Capacity

The ability of a CI system to be repaired Anticipative Capacity

easily and efficiently
Absorptive Capacity
Coping Capacity
Adaptive Capacity

The ability to make changes and adapt Anticipative Capacity

effectively to the challenges posed by
long term trends
Absorptive Capacity
Coping Capacity
Adaptive Capacity

EU-CIRCLE Impact
• Support the establishment of climate
resilient infrastructure by ensuring that an
asset is located, designed, built and operated
with both the current and future climate
conditions and incorporates resilience to the
impacts of climate change over the lifetime of
that asset.
• Provide a coherent baseline for moving from

sector-based climate resilience infrastructure
frameworks, into holistic resilience plans for
entire regions, introducing the
interdependencies of heterogeneous
infrastructures in the implementation
process.

Forest Fire & Smoke Scenario

EU-CIRCLE virtual data for the CI community to
validate resilience and risk concepts.
Virtual city’s Forest Fire & Smoke scenario based

on extreme climatology conditions in 2050
scenario: strong westerly winds, prolonged high
temperatures and low relative humidity values.
Result: low fuel moisture content and intense fire
regime.
Fire burned a forested area covered by typical

Mediterranean vegetation (i.e open aleppo pine
forest, dense shrubs, grasslands).
Simulation performed for 6 hours with a 30 Fire propagation for 6 hours
minutes step. in 30 minutes time-steps
CI assets affected by fire and the released smoke
are defined using Spatial Overlay analyses
functions.

Potential Impacts of Wildfires on Power sector

Impacts to the electricity network from
a) direct fire crossing with the high voltage

transmission lines,
b) dense smoke over a certain concentration
(> 500 μg/m3) causing flashovers in air gaps.
Sub-stations should be checked for electricity

shortcuts caused by deposited smoke
(usually fine particulate matter PM2.5)
EU-CIRCLE developed the CIRP software which is a risk
assessment software with components:
• Fire propagation : GFMIS software by ALGOSYSTEMS

and NCSRD associates
• Smoke : HYSPLIT from NOAA
• Electricity impacts : coded in CIRP from damage
functions found in the literature and discussed with
French Operators.
Electricity network assets affected by the fire event and the released smoke
Study Case: Flooding in City Scenario

with ST-CRISOM in M&S Federation
Need to overlap the hydrological info with other
layers: Population, Economy.
Simulation Team Crisis Simulation, Organization and
Management - ST-CRISOM models flooding +
impacts on Population. Intelligent Agents simulate
human behaviours and people reaction.
ST-CRISOM publish outcomes in M&S Federation.
Manila,
https://www.philstar.com/metro/2017/06/24/1713329/c
oa-hits-mmda-failed-flood-control-projectsPhilippines
Meanwhile, Sword, JCATS, VBS3, etc.. simulate Star
military and emergency units’ deployment +

logistics.
Federation to estimate the effects of alternative

decisions including on population behaviour.
E.g., effectiveness in placing sandbags during a
flooding or responsiveness of resources in applying
evacuation plan during the simulation.

Conclusions
For short term analysis, high resolution urban GIS, interoperable and
federated simulators, and C2 systems, were tested.
The web app COP can be supplemented in near real-time by sensors’ data,
web-scraped data, citizens’ tweets (big data techniques).
Support analysis, training and exercises in large cities:

• to analyze damages, population impacts and decisions,
• to estimate preparedness level,
• to evaluate mission concept,
• to simulate deployment and logistics, by interaction of players with
their tactical actions.
For long term analysis, virtual data of a coastal city has been generated and
exposed to climate hazards (e.g. forest fire and smoke, flooding due to rising
sea levels and increasing rainfall intensity) related to extensive disruption to
interconnected Critical Infrastructure operation.

The Way Forward

• We introduced a set of complementary software tools for computationally
intense modelling of cities, infrastructures and their interconnections
• Future plans include linking the two approaches conceptually moving to
– a real time disaster prediction and management system focusing on the
interconnectivity between societal functions
– highly resolved and detailed scenario building accounting for extreme
events under climate change, e.g. optimal dispatching of personnel and
maintaining a supply chain of needed response equipment and first aid
material
– examine new governance models focusing on the role of military
capabilities in disasters (e.g. multi-purpose by design of main military
equipment)
– introduce new hazard simulations models for flooding , forest fires,
extreme climate events.

Questions ?
https://www.attn.com/stories/2886/10-things-about-hurricane-katrina

12 Technologies & Actionable Knowledge For Disaster & Climate Change Resilience of Urban Environments Walter David PDF

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NATO MODELLING & SIMULATION CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE

Lt. Col. Walter David, NATO M&S Centre of Excellence, Italy;

Contact: Lt. Col. Walter David mscoe.cde08@smd.difesa.it

6th CMDR Interagency Interaction Conference,

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Global Trends, Non-linear Relationships

Complexity of Cities’ Environment

• Cities Increasingly under

• Complexity of cities and

• At least 3 systems: Natural – Economic – Social

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Knowledge and Action

Knowledge and learning as core of KNOWLEDGE

“Knowledge is embodied in a (social) INFORMATION

organism and embedded in action.

 Physical: sensors, facilities, equipment, system states and capabilities.

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

prevention emergency recovery t

Provide Capacity to Availability of Change

Information Updated Rapid Post disaster Maintainance of

Organisational Organisationa Good Organisational

Quantifying City Resilience

Units of Community Resilience Analysis

Dimensions of Resilience (t, s): time, space

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Interactive Model for Operations in Metropolitan Areas -

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Modelling City Critical Infrastructures

Metro SERVICE AREA

Cableway The Network can build a

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org 22

Megacity “Archaria” GIS - Sword Simulation

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Decision Support System

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

2035 Metropolitan City 2D/3D Model

Representation of the urban model using Geographic

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org 18

CORE of HLA SIM Federated Simulations Tools

Common Operational Picture

Disaster Risk Lessons Learned

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Climate Threats to CI - An Overview

• Faster degradation of performance

Greece Forest Fires

Impacts of extreme weather on the oil and gas sector

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

Resilience of Interconnected CI to Climate Change

• City/region Coping Capacity

Resilience for what ? Restorative Capacity

Disaster risks Capacities as one of main components

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

The ability of CI system to buffer, bear Anticipative Capacity

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

The ability of CI system to face and Anticipative Capacity

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

The ability of a CI system to be repaired Anticipative Capacity

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

The ability to make changes and adapt Anticipative Capacity

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

• Provide a coherent baseline for moving from

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org