A Sensitivity Analysis of the Weather Research and Forecasting
Rovick P. Tarife, Romeo C. Crampatanta, Jr., and William F. dela Cerna, Jr.
(WRF) Model for Finding Wind Resource Potential

Abstract— Due to the unsustainable use of fossil fuels, the
use of renewable energy such as wind energy takes the
spotlight for power generation. However, assessment for
finding a good wind resource potential poses a tough challenge
for the researchers and modelers. Weather Research and
Forecasting Model can identify a wind resource potential and
it uses a numerical representation based on the current
weather measurement. A sensitivity analysis is carried out
with the selection of the month of January and July as
representative for the dry and wet season in the Philippines.
Two sets of parameters were tested and for the month of
January Pleim-Xiu-ACM2-Pleim-Xiu exhibited better results.
For the month of July, MM5-YSU-Noah showed better results.
Based on the outcome of the whole simulation, the area of
Tubod, Lanao del Norte showed a good wind resource
potential subjected to further studies.
Index Terms— About four key words or phrases in
alphabetical order, separated by commas.
I. INTRODUCTION
The importance of renewable energy nowadays is
indisputable. Thus, renewable energy takes a significant
role in power generation. This is to address the effects that
the conventional way of power generation brought to earth.
The limited accessibility of the natural resources cannot be
promptly replaced by the normal means on a level of its
utilization. With this, nonrenewable energy sources such as
petroleum gas, oil and coal are ought to be not a practical
means because their formation takes billions of years.
Moreover, the excessive production of greenhouse gases
which can lead to major climate change. By utilizing
sustainable power source, our decrease in reliance to
petroleum products and gas reserves can help on enhancing
the security and sustainability. It will also help in
mitigating the impact of climate change. Of all the
renewable sources, wind energy has been in a spotlight.
In the Philippines, rapid development of the usage of
wind energy as a primary source of electricity is undeniable
[1]. With that, the challenge of evaluating the wind
resource of a certain domain is proven to be a difficult task
for the developers and the researchers. The use of
mesoscale numerical prediction model in wind resource has
been a practice over the years. These models take into
consideration solving physical governing motions of the
atmosphere with varying degree of complexity in hopes to
replicate the behavior and interaction of the earth and the
atmosphere. The model includes parameterization schemes
for solar and infrared radiation, cloud microphysics and
convection (cumulus clouds), a soil and more.

Manuscript received October 14, 2019
R. P. Tarife is with the Electrical Engineering and Department, MSU-Iligan
Institute of Technology, Iligan City, Philippines (e-mail:
rovick.tarife@g.msuiit.edu.ph).
R. C. Crampatanta, Jr., was with Electrical Engineering and Department,
MSU-Iligan Institute of Technology, Iligan City, Philippines (e-mail:
romeojr.crampatanta@g.msuiit.edu.ph).
W. F. dela Cerna, Jr., was with Electrical Engineering and Department,
MSU-Iligan Institute of Technology, Iligan City, Philippines (e-mail:
william.delacerna@g.msuiit.edu.ph).
Most studies about WRF Model did not take into
consideration the effects of longer simulation although
seasonal simulation is a practice already. Several studies
conducted sensitivity analysis to know the behavior of the
model in response to the domain being simulated. A
sensitivity analysis can give to the modeler vital
information about the use and influence of several model
parameters [3]-[10].
This study makes use of the ARW core of WRF 3.6.1 and
focuses on simulating near-surface wind. A sensitivity
analysis of several physical schemes was developed for the
area of Mindanao, one of the major islands in the
Philippines. This study also aims to determine which
combinations of model parameters provides the most
accurate results that will aid in the identification of the area
where wind project is viable.
II.METHODOLOGY
A. Datasets
The datasets of static fields (topography, land use, land
water masks, land cover classification, albedo) utilized in
this study were obtained and interpolated from the National
Research for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data base.
This data serves as input data to the WRF model for initial
and boundary condition. This is driven by National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Operational
Global Analysis, with 1° of spatial resolution (both in
latitude and longitude) and 6 h of temporal sampling. The
actual field data from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical
and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) EL
Salvador was also utilized for validation purposes.
B. Model Configuration
The simulation domains are shown in Fig. 1. The WRF
model is built over parent domain (D1) with 25 km spatial
resolution covering all of Mindanao. The first nested
domain (D2), with spatial resolution of 5 km, covers the
area of Region 9, 10 and area of Lake Lanao. The
innermost domain (D3), which is the focused of the study,
has covered Lanao del Norte and some parts of Misamis
Oriental. The vertical structure of the model contains 35
vertical levels with 10 m, 5 m and 2 m geographic
resolution for the 3 domains.
 Short-wave Radiation Dudhai
Cumulus Kain-Fritsch
Microphysics WSM6

Table 2. Parametrization of each schemes

First Case Second Case
Parametrization
Parameters Parameters
Surface Land (SL) MM5 Pleim-Xiu
Planetary Boundary Yonsei University ACM2
Layer (PBL)
Land Surface Model Noah Pleim-Xiu
(LSM)
Long-wave Radiation Rapid Radiative Rapid Radiative
Transfer Model Transfer Model
Short-wave Radiation Dudhai Dudhai
Cumulus Kain-Fritsch Kain-Fritsch
Figure 1. Simulation domain projection.
Microphysics WSM6 WSM6
The sensitivity test performed in this study is divided into
different categories: seasonal representation, physical To validate the simulation output data, statistical
options, simulation domain resolution and validation of the parameters such as Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean
model. Two different months were considered that represent Squared Error, Standard Deviation Error, and BIAS were
the two seasons in the Philippines: the wet and dry seasons. used to evaluate the performance of the WRF model.
The months of July and January were chosen for wet and
dry season, respectively.
C. Data Extraction and Visualization
For physical options, adaptive time step was used to The simulation using WRF Model gives an output file in
facilitate faster runtime in the simulation. Since the focus of netCDF format. This format is a representation of scientific
this study is to simulate near surface winds, physical variables in an array-oriented data. WRF model output is a
options that deals with the interaction of the atmosphere meteorological data. In this study, two scientific variables
were extracted from the output data which are the wind
and the land surface will be utilized. The available
speed and wind direction.
parameter options for the simulation is shown in Table 1.
The physical options related to the boundary processes For developing a wind resource map, open source GIS
parameterization (SL, PBL, AND LSM) are the one that based software will be used for visualization. Using the
will have a larger influence on an accurate near surface extracted wind speed, the data visualized with a projection
wind simulation. Although more physical options are of WGS 1984. An interpolation method was used to have a
available in the model (for cumulus, radiation, smooth raster data. Lastly, identification of the area where
microphysics etc.), it is not feasible to include them in the high wind speeds are observed
sensitivity analysis. Other options will be leaved as default
values in the configuration of the WRF Model Version 3.6.1
ARW core. III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The duration of the simulation was approximately 1
In order to account the effect of geographical month using 8 logical processors and adaptive time step.
representation of the area modeled, the spatial resolution is Simulation of each cases with corresponding month was
set as 25 km, 5 km, and 1 km. Higher domain resolution approximately 5 days. The comparison of the simulated
results to accurate domain representation. wind speed data from the real data are shown in Fig. 2 and
Fig. 3. Each case for the month of January and July are
shown differently.

Table 1. Parametrization Schemes

Parametrization Available Schemes
Surface Land (SL) MM5, ETA, Pleim-Xiu
Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Yonsei University, Mellor-
Yamada-Janjic, ACM2, RUC
Land Surface Model (LSM) Noah, RUC, 5-layer, Pleim-Xiu
Long-wave Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model
Figure 2. Wind speed plot for January.
Figure 3. Wind speed plot for July.
Using the statistical methods, the value of MAE is
0.87096, RMSE is 13.716, Bias is -0.87096 and STDE is
13.688 for 2nd case parameter for the month of January
which exhibits lesser values in comparison to the 1st case
parameter for the same month. This shows that the model
parameters for 2nd case used outperformed the model
parameters used in the 1st case parameters. For the month
of July, 1st case parameter shows better results compared to
the 2nd case parameters. The values for each statistical
parameter for the 1st case parameter are as follows: MAE =
0.88699, RMSE = 13.968, Bias = -0.88699 and STDE =
13.94. As observed, the Bias value is negative which means
the model has underestimated the predicted wind speed
values.
The wind rose plot of each cases for each month is
visualized in Fig. 4. Wind Rose (a) and (b) are the plots for
the month of January which show that most of the time the
wind blows from the western region. The length of each
“spoke” around the circle is related to the frequency that the
wind blows from a particular direction per unit time. As
depicted in the two wind roses, 6% of the total time the
wind blows from the western region at the speed between 2
to 3 m/s. This also shows that the wind blows rarely from
the north and south directions and also shows larger wind
speeds in the eastern and western regions.
Figure 4. Wind Rose Plot.
For the month of July, wind rose (c) and (d) shows its
wind rose plot. The 1st and 2nd case shows similar results
as wind blows particularly from the west. This result
coincides with the effect of southwest monsoon that the
country experienced during this month.
The different wind power maps are shown in Fig. 5 to
Fig.
8. Projection of the simulated data using GIS environment
shows the specific places in the area of Mindanao which
exhibits larger wind speeds. The data is projected in WGS
1984 and employed raster smoothing technique to acquire a
better visualization of the output data. From the map, the
area extracted which exhibits viable potential for wind
project is the area of Panguil Bay. Funneling effect occurs
in the bay which shows large wind speed values. This
simulation replicated the phenomenon.
Wind Power calculation of the area is based in the output
wind speed at 80m and 100m. Wind power varies for a
specific wind turbine design. The specific design used in
the calculation is discussed by [11]. This design was chosen
because it is cost effective in compare to other designs.
Notable area in the municipality of Tubod, Lanao del Norte
and in the bay area of Ozamiz city. The highest simulated
wind speed in this area is 7.90791 m/s.
 Figure 7. Wind Power Map at 100m for January.
Figure 5. Wind Power Map at 80m for January.

Figure 8. Wind Power Map at 100m for July.

Figure 6. Wind Power Map at 80m for July.

IV. CONCLUSION
A sensitivity analysis on WRF model is presented in this
chapter. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of
different physical options in the simulation of the near- [11] C. Levandowski, “Evaluating Tall Wind Turbine Towers in the Field.”
B.S. thesis, Iowa State University, 2015.
surface wind speed and direction. The sensitivity analysis
was applied to the area of Lanao del Norte and some parts
of Misamis Oriental as area of interest for wind project.
Two different sets of parameterization schemes regarding
boundary layer (SL, PBL and LSM) were tested for different
seasonal conditions (wet and dry month). The SL-PBL-
LSM parameterization composed of Pleim-Xiu-ACM2-
Pleim-Xiu has better performance for the January and
MM5, Yonsei University and Noah for the month July. All
simulation was done with 1km innermost domain spatial
resolution to take into account the influence of high spatial
resolution in the WRF model. In testing simulated data for
bias for both cases, underestimation of the estimates was
observed. Considerable RMSE values and STDE was also
observed for wind speed.

This study was able to identify the area of Tubod, Lanao

del Norte for a potential wind project site which agreed
with previous studies for its potential. Error minimization
in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and
choosing a suitable model configuration for the region of
interest. Simulation grid characteristics should be a
compromise between the chosen resolution and available
computational resources.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
All authors thank Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) EL
Salvador Station and MSU-IIT Phil-LiDAR 2 Program for
providing the datasets needed for this research.

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