Canada 2030 The Defining Forces Disrupting Business

Canada 2030.
The Defining Forces Disrupting Business
REPORT AUGUST 2018

Canada 2030: The Defining Forces Disrupting Business
Sally Crane
Preface
Over the next decade, the world is facing political, social, environmental, and
technological transformations that will have profound implications for investors
and businesses operating in Canada. We produced this report to help Canadian
businesses and investors understand the disrupting forces likely to affect
organizations, address the risks associated with them, and capitalize on the
opportunities they may bring. Ten overarching trends are explored in detail,
(chapters 2 to 11) using findings from government institutions, independent
think tanks, non-profits, consulting firms, academic institutions, and other
professional organizations.
To cite this report: Crane, Sally. Canada 2030: The Defining Forces Disrupting Business. Ottawa:
The Conference Board of Canada, 2018.
©2018 The Conference Board of Canada*

Published in Canada | All rights reserved | Agreement No. 40063028 | *Incorporated as AERIC Inc.
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of The Conference Board of Canada.
CONTENTS
i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 1
1 Introduction
2 Methodology
3 Organization of the Report
Chapter 2
5 Demographic Shifts
6 A Growing Population
7 An Aging Population
7 Greater Immigration
Chapter 3
10 Urbanization
11 Growing Urban Populations
11 Reduced Service Provisions in Rural Areas
12 An Increasing Need for Infrastructure Investment
13 The Growth of “Smart Cities”
14 Greater Densification
14 Cleaner, Greener Cities
Chapter 4
16 Indigenous Reconciliation
17 The Enduring Legacy of Policies, Legislation, and Injustice
18 Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s Calls to Action
20 The Importance of Reconciliation Moving Forward
Chapter 5
22 Climate Change
23 The World Mobilizes to Tackle Climate Change
23 The Impacts of Climate Change Will Be Felt Across Canada
25 Rising Expectations for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
26 Increasing Fossil Fuel Divestment
27 Implementing the Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change
Chapter 6
29 Natural Capital Constraints
30 Increasing Water Scarcity
30 Ecosystem Decline and Loss of Biodiversity
31 A Growing Circular Economy
32 Growth in Renewable Energy and Clean-Tech
Chapter 7
34 Technological Advances
35 Artificial Intelligence: Making Science Fiction a Reality
35 A Growing Sharing Economy
36 A Surge in the Number of IoT‑Connected Devices
37 The Widespread Adoption of 3D Printing
38 The Rising Use of Cryptocurrencies
38 Increasing Job Losses Resulting From Robotic Automation
39 Growing Cyber Security Risks
Chapter 8
41 Economic Uncertainty
42 The Continuing Economic Power Shift
42 Rising Financial Inequality
44 Increasing Female Economic Empowerment
45 Greater Consumer Debt and Financial Vulnerability
Chapter 9
47 Public Policy
48 New Trading Agreements and a Growth in Canadian Exports
48 The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
49 Growing Public Debt
Chapter 10
51 Changing Values and Expectations
52 Generation Z’s Coming of Age
53 Growth in E-Commerce Disrupting the Retail Sector
53 Calls for Greater Corporate Transparency
54 The Rise of Purpose-Driven Business
Chapter 11
56 Health and Diet
57 Greater Obesity and Incidence of Lifestyle Diseases
57 The Rising Cost of Mental Illness
58 A Surge in Superbugs
59 Diets Higher in Local, Organic, Plant‑Based Foods
Chapter 12
61 Conclusion
Appendix A
63 Resources
63 Social Purpose
64 Long-Term Vision
65 Climate Leadership
66 Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability Careers
67 Other Resources
Appendix B
68 Bibliography
Acknowledgements
Canada 2030: The Defining Forces Disrupting Business was researched and
written by Sally Crane, Senior Research Associate, Corporate Responsibility
and Sustainability, with the assistance of Eve Johnston, Research Coordinator,
and Kaitlyn Soley, Administrative and Meetings Coordinator. It was prepared
under the direction of Bryan Benjamin, VP, Organizational Performance.
The report was reviewed for quality and content by Michael Bassett, Associate
Director, Governance, Compliance and Risk, The Conference Board of Canada;
Melanie Hientz, Implementation Manager—Human Early Learning Partnership,
the University of British Columbia; and Brendan Glauser, Communications
Manager, the David Suzuki Foundation.
Canada 2030 was sponsored by:
This report is an initiative of The Conference Board of Canada’s Corporate

Responsibility and Sustainability Institute, founded by:
CPA Canada Loblaw Companies Limited
CN RBC
Intact Insurance The Co-operators
KPMG Telus
About the Corporate Responsibility &

Sustainability Institute
The Corporate Responsibility & Sustainability (CR&S) Institute brings together
a diverse group of business leaders to explore corporate responsibility and
sustainability challenges. The Institute focuses on five areas: workplace,
marketplace, environment, community, and governance. The Institute hosts
regular events and webinars. It also conducts research to help accelerate
business and societal outcomes, and scale next-generation CR&S practices in
Canada. Institute members convene twice a year to discuss current trends and
to network with like-minded individuals. Members also have access to corporate
community investment networking events.
If you would like to find out more about sustainability trends and their implications
for your business, we’d be happy to help.
Please contact:
Sally Crane
Senior Research Associate, Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability
e-mail: crane@conferenceboard.ca
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Canada 2030: The Defining

Forces Disrupting Business
At a Glance
• Over the next decade, the world is facing political, social, environmental, and
and businesses operating in Canada.
• Ten key forces have been identified: each is explored throughout the report.
• Disruption is the overarching trend, with trend lines pointing to greater and more
diverse disruption across all sectors.
• To succeed, corporate leaders will need to think ahead, make bold decisions,
and innovate to improve prospects for themselves, for the communities in which
they operate, and for Canada as a whole.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

Canada 2030
Executive Summary
Over the next decade, the world is facing
political, social, environmental, and
technological transformations that will have
profound implications for investors and
businesses operating in Canada. The future
success of these companies will be dictated
by how they react to these defining forces.
We have produced this report to help Canadian businesses and
investors understand the disrupting forces likely to affect organizations,
address the risks associated with them, and capitalize on the
opportunities they may bring.
Canada’s population is growing, aging, and becoming progressively

urban. Canadians are becoming increasingly financially vulnerable,
with household debt-to-income rising. The prevalence of obesity in
Canada is expected to increase until at least 2030, supporting the
expectation that cardiovascular disease is likely to remain the leading
cause of death over this time period. Canada will see growing job losses
resulting from robotic automation, with white-collar workers increasingly
impacted. A legacy of harmful policies, legislation, and injustice will
continue to impact Canada’s Indigenous peoples. Meanwhile, Canada’s
gender pay gap is slowly closing. Generation Z (those born after 1997)
will play a stronger role in Canada’s workforce, move into leadership
positions, make higher-value purchasing decisions, influence the
economy, and shape society.
Climate change is expected to have significant implications for Canada

as we look to 2030. Canada is likely to experience more frequent and
intense wildfires, heat-related human mortality, and increased damages
from river and coastal floods, while properties in the highest flood-prone
areas may ultimately become uninsurable. Canada is transitioning
away from coal-fired power, pricing carbon pollution, investing in clean
technology, and increasing the amount of electricity generated from
renewable sources. Meanwhile, the movement to divest from coal, oil,
and gas companies is gaining momentum.
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. ii

Executive Summary | The Conference Board of Canada
Despite being a water-rich country, water scarcity is expected to become

Canadian a greater problem for some regions of Canada, including significant
businesses will parts of the breadbasket in Central Canada. Without adequate access
be subject to a to fresh water, supply chains could be disrupted, industries shut down,
multitude of forces and business growth limited. In addition, crops could fail, ecosystems
with the potential to could be destroyed, health could worsen, and global conflicts could
disrupt their entire become more frequent. Meanwhile, Canada’s agriculture, fishing,
value chain and forestry, food and beverage, pharmaceutical, and tourism industries will
the environment in increasingly be at risk of being impacted by ecosystem decline and loss
which they operate. of biodiversity. As competition for the earth’s finite natural resources
intensifies, an increasing number of companies will choose to replace
the “take, make, dispose” approach of traditional business models with
a circular approach where products, components, and materials are
repaired, reused, and recycled.
As we look to 2030, economic power will continue to shift away from

Canada and other developed counties to emerging market nations.
The renegotiation of NAFTA, the introduction of a Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) agreement, and talks of bilateral trade deals with
China and post-Brexit Britain are likely to impact Canada’s trading
relationships. Cryptocurrencies are expected to disrupt aspects of
traditional financial systems, while developments in artificial intelligence
should bring us autonomous cars and trucks, remotely controlled delivery
vehicles, and home robots. The Internet of Things (IoT) has the potential
to transform everything from products and services, to manufacturing,
supply chains, and waste management. Meanwhile, sharing economy
platforms are set to continue disrupting the ways in which we use,
consume, and pay for goods and services. Cyber security is a growing
concern, but the evidence suggests that businesses are not typically
well-prepared to respond to it. Meanwhile, breaches of trust have left
investors and consumers calling for increased corporate accountability
and transparency.
Looking forward, disruption is the overarching trend. Canadian

businesses will be subject to a multitude of forces with the potential
to disrupt their entire value chain and the environment in which they
operate. To succeed, corporate leaders will need to think ahead, make
bold decisions, and innovate. In doing so, they have the potential to
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iii

Canada 2030
improve prospects not just for themselves, but for the communities
in which they operate and Canada as a whole. Failure to anticipate
disruption or act and adapt will threaten long-term viability. Navigating
this disruption will be easier to do if companies have a compelling
purpose that guides their work.
This report is intended to help readers understand the disruptive forces

likely to affect organizations, address the risks associated with them,
and capitalize on the opportunities they may bring. Two other reports
in our “Canada 2030” series should help readers embed sustainability
considerations into corporate governance, and understand the trends
impacting corporate sustainability reporting.
Welcome
Discussions involving sustainability megatrends continue to increase in
frequency and prominence. And while there is always a degree of uncertainty
associated with any long-term forecast, it is apparent that these issues present
material operational risks and opportunities for companies globally. Examining
certain gaps in information and analysis—as they pertain specifically to Canadian
businesses and investors—will provide valuable insight, helping to identify the
elements that may become increasingly more vital for sustainable growth.
• Are there potential trends, or perspectives, that are more uniquely Canadian?
• How are Canadian businesses positioned relative to the range of potential
outcomes in the context of these global trends?
• What can Canadian businesses do to become better prepared?
As an investment manager and steward of clients’ assets, we believe that the

effective management of material environmental, social, and governance (ESG)
issues is accretive to business resiliency and long-term value creation. The
Jarislowsky Fraser Partners Foundation is pleased to support The Conference
Board of Canada in developing this research, and acting as a catalyst to
accelerate the next generation of practices in corporate sustainability in Canada.
G. PIERRE LAPOINTE
President and Head of Private Wealth Management
Jarislowsky, Fraser Limited
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iv

CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Chapter Summary
• Over the next decade, the world is facing political, social, environmental, and
and businesses operating in Canada.
• We produced this report to help Canadian businesses and investors understand

the disrupting forces likely to affect organizations, address the risks associated
with them, and capitalize on the opportunities they may bring.
• Ten overarching trends (chapters 2 to 11) are explored in detail, using findings
from government institutions, independent think tanks, non-profits, consulting
firms, academic institutions, and other professional organizations.

Canada 2030
Over the next decade, the world is facing

Looking forward
political, social, environmental, and
to 2030, there are
major trends that technological transformations that will have
will have an impact profound implications for investors and
on businesses and businesses operating in Canada. Looking
their operations. forward to 2030, there are major trends that
will have an impact on businesses and their
operations. Demographic shifts, urbanization,
climate change, natural resource constraints,
and technological advances are changing
stakeholder needs and impacting profitability.
The world appears increasingly uncertain, with economic and public
policy turmoil reshaping the context in which businesses operate.
Social issues—including Indigenous reconciliation, changing consumer
values and expectations, and trends in health and diet—are also affecting
businesses. How companies react to these defining forces will dictate
their future success. Several reports examining sustainability megatrends
have been produced by various organizations over recent years. But,
to date, no report exists that focuses on the Canadian context. The
Conference Board of Canada has produced this report to help Canadian
businesses and investors understand the disrupting forces likely to affect
organizations over the next 10 years, address the risks associated with
them, and capitalize on the opportunities they may bring.
Methodology
Approximately 200 participants attending The Conference Board of
Canada’s “2017 Business [Un]Usual: Profit From Purpose” conference
were polled to identify trends affecting corporate sustainability in
Canada. This scoping exercise was followed by an extensive review of
relevant literature to identify further trends having the potential to impact
corporate sustainability as we look toward 2030, both globally and in
Canada. Ten overarching trends were identified in total: each is explored
in detail, using findings from government institutions, independent
Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 2

Chapter 1 | The Conference Board of Canada
think tanks, non-profits, consulting firms, academic institutions, and other

professional organizations.
Organization of the Report

The defining forces affecting the success of companies and the societies
in which they operate are laid out across 10 chapters. Each chapter
outlines the major trends in the area and identifies a set of key questions
for readers to reflect upon. The report concludes with a list of Conference
Board of Canada resources to guide business professionals and
investors to respond to the trends effectively.
The trends identified in this report will impact various areas of a

business’s value chain from raw materials and suppliers, to direct
operations, and customers and consumers. (See Exhibit 1.) These
trends also have the potential to impact a business’s operating context,
including the environment and society. Considering how these trends
will impact operations presents an opportunity to stress-test current
strategies against emerging risks and opportunities to identify ways
to mitigate, manage, or adapt.
Exhibit 1
Business Value Chain
Distribution
Raw
Materials
Production/
Manufacturing
Employees
Buildings/
UPSTREAM
Facilities
Business DOWNSTREAM
Customers
Products/
Investors Services Energy
Suppliers
Disposal
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Canada 2030
The nine questions listed below can be used to examine how the trends
may impact business over the coming decade, address the risks, and
help capitalize on the opportunities they may bring.
Questions for Business Professionals

and Investors
Governance
1. Which trends will materially impact the business, including its value chain
and operating context?
2. Has the board evaluated how these trends may impact the business
and its value chain or operating context, from both risk and
opportunity perspectives?
3. Is the company disclosing the risks associated with these trends?
4. What is the company’s risk appetite for each of these trends?
Strategy
5. Has management identified the risks and opportunities associated
with these trends over the short, medium and long terms, and are they
considered in the company’s approach to enterprise risk management?
6. Has management used these risks and opportunities to shape the
organization’s strategy and financial planning?
7. Has management evaluated the resilience of the organization’s strategy,
taking the trends into consideration?
8. Which metrics and targets are management using to assess and
manage relevant risks and opportunities, where such impacts
are material?
9. How is management measuring and incentivizing performance
against targets?

CHAPTER 2
Demographic Shifts
Chapter Summary
• Canada’s population is growing, its inhabitants are aging, and immigration

is increasing. Such demographic shifts could impact Canadian businesses
in a multitude of ways depending on their sector, location, and size.
• These changes present great opportunities. Business leaders would be

wise to assess how these shifts could affect their operations and respond
accordingly, through changes to product and/or service offerings, sales
and marketing strategies, and HR practices.

Canada 2030
By 2036, over
A Growing Population
80 per cent of By 2030, the world’s population is expected to
the increase grow by 13 per cent, reaching 8.6 billion (from
in Canada’s
7.6 billion in 2017). Growth in a small number
population will be
due to immigration.
of developing countries will drive the increase.1
Meanwhile, Canada’s population is expected to
grow by 20 per cent to reach 42 million2 (up from
35 million in 2016).3
Since the mid-1990s, immigration has been the main source of Canadian
population growth. By 2036, over 80 per cent of the increase in Canada’s
population will be due to immigration.4 The populations of Ontario and
British Columbia are expected to grow above the national average, as
people move to areas with greater economic opportunities. However,
the populations of Quebec, the Atlantic provinces, and Nunavut are
expected to grow below the national average. For the other provinces
and territories, the forecasts are less certain. Newfoundland and
Labrador is the only province that is expected to see its population
decrease over the coming years.5 While a growing population could put a
strain on schools, health care systems, housing, and natural resources,
it also presents great opportunities for business growth. Conversely, a
decreasing population could result in labour force challenges, reduced
customer demand for products and services, and reduced public
service provisions.
1 United Nations, World Population Projected to Reach 9.8 Billion in 2050.

2 Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories.
3 Statistics Canada, Canada at a Glance 2017—Population.
4 Statistics Canada, Immigration and Diversity.
5 Statistics Canada, Section 3: Analysis of the Results.

An Aging Population
Canada’s population is aging: the country’s percentage of seniors (aged
65 years and older) has been growing steadily since the 1960s, when it
made up just 8.0 per cent of the population.6 By 2016, seniors comprised
17.0 per cent of the population.7 By 2036, seniors are forecast to
represent 25.0 per cent of the population.8
In 2016, seniors outnumbered children aged 14 years and younger for

the first time.9 An aging population is not unique to Canada—it is being
felt around the world and is set to continue.10 As we look toward 2030,
seniors will represent a growing consumer group and their lobbying
power will increase. There is a major concern that Canada’s workforce
will shrink if seniors exit the workforce without being replaced in equal
numbers. Immigration is seen to be the most likely way of growing the
population as the fertility rate has dropped below the replacement fertility
rate. Addressing this shortfall will require greater workforce participation
by immigrants, women, and seniors. Other challenges associated with
an aging population include social care costs, the provision of medical
services, and accessibility for buildings and transportation. These will
put significant strains on public finances and likely result in increased
accessibility regulation affecting infrastructure and capital expenditures.
Greater Immigration
Globally, immigration is driven by a mix of pull factors (associated
with better job prospects and prosperity) and push factors (associated
with natural hazards, conflict, unemployment, political instability, and
poverty). These pull-and-push factors compel people to leave their
homes in search of a better life. Meanwhile, with its fertility rate
6 Ibid.
7 Statistics Canada, Age and Sex Highlight Tables.
8 Statistics Canada, Section 3: Analysis of the Results.
9 Statistics Canada, Age and Sex, and Type of Dwelling Data.
10 United Nations Population Fund, Ageing.

Canada 2030
in decline, Canada is actively encouraging immigration to fuel economic

growth. Attracting skilled immigrants, and ensuring they are able to
quickly integrate and contribute to Canadian society, is a major
competitive priority for Canada. The importance of immigration to
Canada is depicted in Exhibit 2. Canada should be prepared for an
increase in immigrants who choose to come to Canada for a better
life and those who are forced to move due to circumstances beyond
their control, such as climate change, famine, and conflict.11
Exhibit 2
The Importance of Immigration to Canada
WHY
IS IMMIGRATION
1.6 Canada’s fertility rate,
which is ranked 181st
globally, is well below Canada’s
IMPORTANT TO CANADA? replacement rate of 2.1 Canada’s acceptance of
immigrants on humanitarian
grounds demonstrates
Immigrants TODAY make compassion and leadership,
up 65% of Canada’s net
and enhances Canada’s
annual population growth
global standing
IMMIGRANTS...
Almost
100%
25% of Canada’s population will be
over 65 by 2035
boost trade ties
of Canada’s net between Canada
5,000,000 population growth
will be through
and the world
Canadians set to retire
by 2035 immigration by 2035 strengthen culture
and diversity
:
Canada’s worker-to-retiree
350,000
Estimated number of
immigrants Canada will
are motivated,
innovative, and
entrepreneurial
ratio TODAY need annually by 2035
: to meet its workforce

needs
Canada’s worker-to-retiree
ratio in 2035
National Immigration Centre | conferenceboard.ca/NIC | @ImmigrationCBoC
11 European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, Global Trends to 2030.

If current immigration levels continue, nearly half of Canada’s population

will be first- or second-generation immigrants by 2036, up from 38.0 per
cent in 2011. The immigrant population will continue to be concentrated
in metropolitan areas, particularly Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver.
By 2036, more than half of all immigrants in Canada will be from Asia
and over a third of the working-age population will be from a visible
minority group.12 Furthermore, the proportion of the Canadian population
whose mother tongue is a language other than English or French could
be as high as 31.0 per cent13 (up from 23.0 per cent in 2016). Increasing
numbers of immigrants will impact demand for products and services:
meanwhile, marketing such products and services will need to take
immigrants’ values and needs into consideration. Diversity and inclusion
will also be important themes for businesses to address.
Questions for Businesses and Investors

1. Which opportunities does an increasing population present for
business growth?
2. Does the company have strong diversity policies and programs?
3. What is the business doing to help older workers participate in
the workforce?
4. How does the business attract skilled immigrants to address skills
shortages in its workforce? How does it help immigrants integrate into
the workforce and local community?
12 Statistics Canada, A Look at Immigration, Ethnocultural Diversity and Languages.

13 Ibid.

CHAPTER 3
Urbanization
Chapter Summary
• The percentage of Canadians living in urban areas is rising and we’re seeing
greater densification around urban centres and transit corridors.
• As a result of increasing urbanization, rural communities may find it increasingly

challenging to access certain goods and services, while increased investment
will be needed to repair and modernize Canadian cities’ infrastructure to meet
the needs of growing urban populations.
• Smart cities have the potential to improve all aspects of their inhabitants’ lives,
from how they move around and use energy, to how they make a living and
interact with the natural environment.
• Meanwhile, cities will have a critical role to play in tackling climate change and
air pollution.
• Businesses impact job creation, service delivery, health and well-being, and
economic prosperity. Therefore, businesses have a crucial role to play to ensure
communities (urban and rural) survive and thrive as we look to 2030.

Growing Urban Populations

Around the time of Confederation, approximately
84 per cent of Canada’s population lived in rural
areas and the country’s economy was based on
agriculture and natural resources.1 By 2016, this
had completely flipped, with 81.0 per cent of the
population living in urban areas.
Growing urban populations typically mean increased traffic congestion
and challenges associated with transporting people and goods in a
sustainable manner. By 2030, the percentage of Canadians living in
urban areas is forecast to reach 84 per cent.2 However, virtual work
opportunities, housing affordability challenges, work-life balance
considerations, and personal safety concerns could all impact where
Canadians choose to live.3 The potential locational trade-offs could
impact a business’s ability to recruit and retain staff, the distribution of its
products and services, and the demand for such products and services.
Reduced Service Provisions in

Rural Areas
With the percentage of Canadians living in urban areas forecast to
continue rising, rural communities may find it more and more challenging
to access certain goods and services. Rural areas across Canada could
see more businesses closing their doors, more schools closing, and
more youth moving away. For example, in 2017, Greyhound Canada
announced its intention to end services in northern British Columbia,
blaming increased urbanization for making its operations in this part of
the province unsustainable.4 If their populations fall low enough, small
communities could struggle to generate enough municipal tax revenue
to maintain or upgrade aging infrastructure and could face ongoing
1 Statistics Canada, Canada Goes Urban.

2 Guardian, The, “Percentage of Global Population Living In Cities.”
3 Policy Horizons Canada, Canada 2030: Scan of Emerging Issues.
4 Kurjata, Greyhound Canada Applies to Stop Serving Northern B.C.

Canada 2030
challenges replacing older workers when they retire.5 Despite their

The opportunities challenges, rural areas provide great opportunities for businesses: rural
associated with areas contain a wealth of natural resources, including minerals, lumber,
operating in rural and food; they offer an attractive pace of life and could support growing
areas should not numbers of remote workers or virtual workplaces; and the cheaper cost
be overlooked. of property can be attractive for entrepreneurs and employees.6 While
businesses may need to consider the viability of operating in rural areas
as they look to 2030, the opportunities associated with operating in rural
areas should not be overlooked.
An Increasing Need for Infrastructure

Investment
To meet the needs of growing urban populations and adapt to
climate change, increased investment will be needed to repair and
modernize Canadian cities’ buildings, roads, bridges, railways, ports,
airports, and energy, water, and sanitation systems. The Government
of Canada is doubling its investment in infrastructure, amounting to
more than $180 billion over 12 years.7 To support this investment, a
federal infrastructure bank is being created to attract private sector
and institutional investors to help fund the infrastructure that Canadian
cities need.8 As we look to 2030, we expect to see cities enjoying the
benefits of upgraded infrastructure. Investment will likely drive growth in
the construction sector (along with other associated sectors) and should
support the creation of good, well-paying jobs.9 Increased infrastructure
investment creates huge opportunities for businesses, particularly in the
engineering, construction, and utilities sectors. Businesses may also
need to make upgrades to their own buildings and infrastructure.
5 Strengthening Rural Canada, Challenges.

6 Strengthening Rural Canada, Opportunities.
7 Infrastructure Canada, Investing in Canada Plan.
8 Infrastructure Canada, Canada Infrastructure Bank.
9 Government of Canada, Chapter 2—Communities Built for Change.

The Growth of “Smart Cities”

New digital technologies are being used to help cities manage
congestion, improve public safety, reduce energy consumption, and
allocate resources based on real time data. A “smart city” is an urban
area that uses different types of electronic sensors to collect data,
which are then used to manage assets and resources efficiently.10
The components that make up smart cities are displayed in Exhibit 3.
Smart cities have the potential to improve all aspects of their inhabitants’
lives, from how they move around and use energy, to how they make a
living and interact with the natural environment. In 2017, the Government
of Canada launched the Smart Cities Challenge, providing $300 million
Exhibit 3
Smart City Components
Smart Open Smart Smart Smart grid/

manufacturing data transportation Smart buildings energy/utilities
Smart
health digital citizens
Mobility/
Smart Wi-Fi
government
10 Hamblen, Just What IS a Smart City?

Canada 2030
in financial and in-kind support to transform cities to smart cities.11

With cities and companies putting their creative minds together, we can
expect to see new and innovative uses of state-of-the-art information and
communication technology throughout our urban environments as we
look ahead to 2030. The growth of smart cities could present
opportunities for businesses, particularly around the distribution of
products and services, and for those working in the industrial and
technology sectors.
Greater Densification
Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Canadian cities sprawled
outwards, suburbs grew, and city planning revolved around the use of the
car. Today, cities are recognizing the benefits of densification, including:
• reducing reliance on cars;

• the proximity of amenities;
• fostering healthier and more active lifestyles;
• more vibrant communities;
• greater energy efficiency;
• greater housing choices.12
Denser neighbourhoods are cheaper for cities to maintain too, relative

to sprawling suburbs.13 As we look ahead to 2030, we can expect to see
greater densification around urban centres and transit corridors.
Cleaner, Greener Cities

Cities consume almost two-thirds of the world’s energy and account
for over 70 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.14 Cities are also
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as flooding,
fires, and extreme weather events. As we look ahead to 2030, cities will
have a critical role to play in tackling climate change and air pollution.
11 Infrastructure Canada, Smart Cities Challenge.

12 Smarter Growth Initiative, Urban Densification.
13 PWC UK, Rapid Urbanisation.
14 World Bank, Urban Development.

We can expect to see more energy-efficient buildings, greater use

of renewable energy, thousands more electric vehicles on the road
(along with the associated infrastructure to support them), plus new
infrastructure to encourage walking and cycling. We can also expect:
• higher carbon pricing;

• new restrictions on the use of gas-powered vehicles;
• road use charges;
• greater restrictions on the emissions of other pollutants;
• greater use of ride-sharing services;
• more stringent waste regulations;
• a move away from the culture of “making, using, and disposing of
products” to a culture of “recovering, reusing, repurposing, and recycling”
(as is already happening in many countries, especially in Europe).

1. How could increasing urbanization impact the business’s ability to recruit
and retain staff? How could this affect the distribution of a business’s
products and services, and the demand for such products and services?
2. How could the information and communication technology associated
with smart cities be used to improve the distribution of the business’s
products and services?
3. How could greater densification around urban centres and transit
corridors impact the business?
4. How is the business preparing for increasing carbon pricing and
regulations associated with climate change and air pollution?

CHAPTER 4
Indigenous Reconciliation
Chapter Summary
• A legacy of harmful policies, legislation, and injustice continues to impact

Indigenous peoples in Canada.
• The 2015 Truth and Reconciliation Commission report contains 94 calls to action
to redress this legacy and advance the process of reconciliation with Canada’s
Indigenous communities.
• While most calls to action are directed to the federal government, one is directed
specifically to the business sector.
• If these are acted upon in a timely, thorough, and committed manner, the
socio‑economic gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples
should begin to close.
• Meaningfully engaging and partnering with Indigenous people on projects,

and pursuing effective recruitment and retention practices/strategies, make
good business sense.

The Enduring Legacy of Policies,

Legislation, and Injustice
A legacy of harmful policies, legislation, and
injustice continues to impact Indigenous
peoples in Canada. This legacy was perhaps
most prominently manifested within Canada’s
residential school system.
Church-run schools were established for Aboriginal children from the
1840s onwards. In 1883, the federal government established the first
large residential schools in Canada, to “kill the Indian in the child”
(in the words of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission). In 1920,
it became compulsory for Indian status children, aged 7 to 15, to attend
residential schools. It wasn’t until 1996 that the last of the residential
schools closed its doors. Over the years in which the schools were
operational, an estimated 150,000 children passed through them.
During that time, thousands of children were physically and sexually
abused, and 3,200 children died from tuberculosis, malnutrition, and
other diseases resulting from poor living conditions. Poor burial records
mean that the real death toll could be much higher. The mortality rate
at some schools reached 60.0 per cent.1
The legacy of harmful policies, legislation, and injustice is evidenced by

the large socio-economic gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous
peoples across a wide variety of indicators, including:2
• educational attainment
• income
• employment
• infant mortality
• maternal health
• suicide
• mental health
• rates of addiction
1 Canadian Press, The, “Residential Schools by the Numbers.”

2 Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada, Honouring the Truth.

Canada 2030
• fetal alcohol spectrum disorder

The Truth and • substance abuse
Reconciliation • life expectancy
Commission of • birth rates
Canada report • infant and child health issues
contains 94 calls • chronic diseases
to action, with • access to health services
number 92 directed • domestic and family violence
specifically to the • sexual abuse
business sector. • homicide
• victimization of women and girls
• children in care
• criminal victimization
• representation in the justice system
Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s

Calls to Action
In 2015, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada published a
report documenting the history and legacy of Canada’s residential school
system.3 The report contains 94 calls to action to redress the legacy of
harmful policies, legislation, and injustice impacting Indigenous peoples,
and advance the process of reconciliation with Canada’s Indigenous
communities. While most of the calls to action are directed to the federal
government, number 92 is directed specifically to the business sector:
Call to Action 92: Business and Reconciliation

“We call upon the corporate sector in Canada to adopt the United
Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples as a
reconciliation framework and to apply its principles, norms, and
standards to corporate policy and core operational activities involving
3 Ibid.

Indigenous peoples and their lands and resources. This would include,
but not be limited to, the following:
i. Commit to meaningful consultation, building respectful relationships,

and obtaining the free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) of Indigenous
peoples before proceeding with economic development projects.
ii. Ensure that Aboriginal peoples have equitable access to jobs, training,
and education opportunities in the corporate sector, and that Aboriginal
communities gain long-term sustainable benefits from economic
development projects.
iii. Provide education for management and staff on the history of
Aboriginal peoples, including the history and legacy of residential
schools, the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous
Peoples (UNDRIP), Treaties and Aboriginal rights, Indigenous law,
and Aboriginal–Crown relations. This will require skills based training
in intercultural competency, conflict resolution, human rights, and
anti-racism.”4
United Nations Declaration on the Rights

of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP)
UNDRIP is the most comprehensive international framework on the rights of
Indigenous peoples.5 It sets minimum standards for the survival, dignity, and
well-being of Indigenous peoples. It also elaborates on existing human rights
standards and fundamental freedoms as they apply to Indigenous peoples.
It includes the requirement for “free, prior, and informed consent” to be obtained
prior to developing on Indigenous land or using resources within an Indigenous
territory. Canada has supported UNDRIP since 2016, but some of its principles
may prove difficult to reconcile with the country’s constitutional framework and
legal system. As a result, implementing UNDRIP’s principles may not always
be straightforward. UNDRIP already has huge implications for Canada’s mining,
forestry, food, and energy sectors; these are set to continue as we look to 2030.
4 Ibid.
5 United Nations, Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Canada 2030
The Importance of Reconciliation

Moving Forward
The Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada’s report argues
that the socio-economic gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous
communities should begin to close if the calls to action are acted
upon in a timely, thorough, and committed manner.6 Reconciliation is
not only important for Indigenous peoples themselves—meaningfully
engaging and partnering with Indigenous peoples and pursuing effective
recruitment and retention practices/strategies make good business
sense also. These can lead to improved decision-making, financial
performance, and outcomes for the stakeholders and communities
in which they operate.7 Conversely, when businesses fail to engage
with Indigenous peoples and communities, they risk major disruptions
potentially costing tens of thousands of dollars a day.8 As we look
to 2030, businesses could expect to receive more requests for
transparency around their policies, practices, and relations regarding
Indigenous peoples.

1. What is the business’s approach to reconciliation? Does the business
apply the principles associated with the United Nations Declaration on
the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to corporate policy and activities?
2. Which opportunities has the business identified to build trusting
and respectful relationships, partnerships, and collaborations with
Indigenous peoples?
3. How can the company better inform and educate its personnel on the
principles of reconciliation?
6 Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada, Honouring the Truth.

7 Indigenous Works, Business Case for Inclusion.
8 Jeffrey and Gladu, Aboriginal Representation Will Boost Corporate Canada’s Bottom Line.

4. Which steps is the business taking to integrate Indigenous peoples’

knowledge and perspectives into corporate and boardroom
decision-making?
5. Are Indigenous perspectives embedded in the organization’s
diversity policies?
6. How could the business improve transparency regarding its policies,
practices, and relations regarding Indigenous peoples?

CHAPTER 5
Climate Change
Chapter Summary
• The next decade will see the world mobilizing to tackle climate change,
as the risks associated with it become more apparent and its effects are
increasingly disruptive.
• The impacts of climate change will be felt across Canada, with more frequent
and intense wildfires, river and coastal floods, and heat-related human mortality
being the greatest risks.
• Meanwhile, expectations around corporate reporting on climate-related matters

are increasing and the movement to divest from coal, oil, and gas companies
is gaining momentum.
• The “green economy” presents many opportunities for businesses; those that
choose to act could create a key strategic advantage, positioning themselves
well for the years ahead.
• Tackling climate change will require a collaborative effort across businesses,

governments, and society as a whole.

The World Mobilizes to Tackle

Climate Change
In 2016, the World Economic Forum cited that the
failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change
is the top global risk by significance of impact
to the economy.1 The next decade will see the
world mobilizing to tackle climate change, as the
risks associated with it become more apparent
and its effects are increasingly disruptive.
All 197 United Nations (UN) member states2 have signed up to the Paris
Agreement, with the aim of keeping this century’s global temperature
increase well below two degrees Celsius (a threshold at which scientists
believe significant and potentially irreversible environmental changes will
occur). The need to act on climate change has also been recognized
in the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, adopted by 193 member
states in 2015.3 As we look toward 2030, tackling climate change will
be a key strategic priority for countries around the world.
The Impacts of Climate Change Will

Be Felt Across Canada
Businesses and their value chains could be directly and/or indirectly
impacted by climate change. The surface temperature of the planet
is projected to rise over the course of the 21st century, under all
greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.4 As we look ahead to 2030,
it is likely that Canada will experience:
• more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most
land areas;
1 World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016.

2 The United States has stated its intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, but it can’t formally
do so until 2020.
3 United Nations, The Sustainable Development Agenda.
4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, 10.

Canada 2030
• more inland and coastal flooding;

As the effects of • increased droughts and greater water scarcity;
climate change • more frequent and intense storms;
become more • greater coastal erosion and frequency of landslides;
pronounced, • a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer;
the world could • thawing of near-surface permafrost;
have as many as • rising sea levels;
200 million climate • warmer lakes, rivers, and oceans;
migrants by 2050. • increased species extinction;
• increased displacement of people;
• economic losses from climate change-related events.5
As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, the world

could have as many as 200 million climate migrants by 2050.6 Climate
migrants seeking to resettle in Canada could have a big impact on the
country’s immigration program, labour market, and society. The cost of
natural disasters (both weather-related and geophysical) to Canadians
is forecast to reach $5 billion per year by 2020 and $21–$43 billion
by 2050.7
As we look ahead to 2030, the greatest climate change-related risks for

Canadian businesses are:8
• increased damage from more frequent and intense wildfires;

• heat-related human mortality;
• increased damages from river and coastal floods.
Many major Canadian cities are situated in areas vulnerable to extreme

weather events. Vancouver is vulnerable to ocean flooding, while
Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montréal, and Ottawa are vulnerable to
river flooding. Toronto is vulnerable to flooding from Lake Ontario, and
the Prairies are vulnerable to drought. Canada’s main ports (Vancouver,
Montréal, Prince Rupert, and Halifax) are at risk from storm surge
and rising sea levels. Meanwhile, wildfires pose a risk to towns and
5 Ibid., 10–15.
6 Brown, Fighting Climate Change.
7 Alexander, Natural Catastrophes, 1.
8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, 14.

cities across Canada, particularly those in close proximity to highly

combustible conifer forests, such as Fort McMurray, Timmins, and
Prince George.
As we look toward 2030, many properties in high-risk areas for flooding

may become uninsurable, or the premiums to insure them may become
unaffordable.9 Those without suitable insurance may risk defaulting on
their mortgage payments if their properties become flooded and they
must move out while the damage is repaired. Climate change-related
events are also likely to impact the international and Canadian financial
markets.10 Indeed, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England,
has issued a stark warning that climate change will lead to financial
crises and falling living standards unless countries do more to ensure
companies reduce their climate impact.11
In addition to the direct risks associated with climate change, businesses

may also be subject to indirect risks. These include new government
regulations, taxes, tariffs, challenges to their social licence to operate,
and potentially even litigation.
Rising Expectations for Climate-

Related Financial Disclosures
Expectations around corporate reporting on climate-related matters are
increasing. In 2016, the Financial Stability Board (an international body
that makes recommendations regarding the global financial system)
commissioned a select task force (the Task Force on Climate-related
Financial Disclosures) to propose climate-related financial reporting
standards. Recommendations published by the task force advise
businesses to disclose:
• their governance around climate-related risks and opportunities;
9 Joseph and Alini, Flooding, Flooding Everywhere.

10 Natural Resources Canada, Global Issues.
11 Carney, “Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon.”

Canada 2030
• the actual and potential impacts of climate-related risks and opportunities

on their organization’s businesses, strategy, and financial planning where
such information is material;
• how they identify, assess, and manage climate-related risks;
• the metrics and targets used to assess and manage relevant climate-
related risks and opportunities, where such information is material.”12
As we look to 2030, investor, lender, and insurer interest in climate-

related financial disclosures will gain momentum. There is speculation
that regulators may introduce climate disclosure requirements too. This
should enhance the ways in which climate-related risks are assessed,
priced, and managed.
Increasing Fossil Fuel Divestment

As concerns about the impacts of climate change and environmental
pollution increase, the movement to divest from coal, oil, and gas
companies is gaining momentum. Over 800 institutions worldwide
have committed to divesting $5.58 trillion in investments from fossil
fuel companies13 and some insurers have even ceased underwriting
fossil fuel operations.14 A growing number of investors—including
governments, educational institutions, pension funds, faith-based
institutions, and philanthropic foundations—are now divesting from fossil
fuel companies in their portfolios.15 In some cases, divestment is being
chosen as a way to more deeply align an organization’s investments with
its values. In other cases, it is being carried out to protect against the
long-term risk of having stranded assets. To that end, the Task Force
on Climate-related Financial Disclosures has laid out a framework for
businesses to disclose their climate-related risks in a way that will better
inform investment decisions.16
12 Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Final Report: Recommendations.

13 Fossil Free, Divestment Commitments.
14 Unfriend COAL, Insuring Coal No More.
15 Fossil Free, Divestment Commitments.
16 Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Final Report: Recommendations.

By moving beyond boilerplate disclosures and providing enhanced

transparency, businesses can help to create a more balanced dialogue
around the economic risks and resiliency of the Canadian energy sector,
as we look toward 2030.
Implementing the Pan-Canadian

Framework on Climate Change
In 2016, Canada adopted the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean
Growth and Climate Change. The plan states how the country plans
to meet its 2030 commitment of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by
30.0 per cent (compared with 2005 levels). This is the amount needed
for Canada to play its part in keeping this century’s global temperature
increase well below two degrees Celsius. The framework includes:
• adopting a nationwide approach to pricing carbon emissions;

• developing new building codes;
• deploying more charging stations for electric vehicles;
• expanding clean energy systems;
• phasing out the use of coal;
• reducing methane emissions;
• protecting carbon stored in natural habitats;
• driving emission reductions from government operations.17
Despite these initiatives, Canada is performing poorly when it comes

to tackling climate change (ranking 51st on the 2018 Climate Change
Performance Index, which compares the GHG emissions, renewable
energy, energy use, and climate policy of 60 countries).18 Canada is
currently on track to miss its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target
(510–580 MtCO2 a year) by a wide margin.19 The country will need
17 Prime Minister of Canada, Communiqué of Canada’s First Ministers.

18 Burck, Marten, Bals, and Hohne, Climate Change Performance Index, 7.
19 UN Environment, The Emissions Gap Report 2017, 24.

Canada 2030
to reduce the carbon intensity of its energy industry, particularly the oil
sands. And, Canada must “green” its transportation if it is to meet its
target and successfully transition to a low-carbon economy.20 Tackling
climate change will require a collaborative effort across businesses,
governments, and society as a whole. The “green economy” presents
many opportunities for businesses: those that chose to act could
create a key strategic advantage, positioning themselves well for the
years ahead.

1. Has the business mapped the potential impacts of climate change to its
assets, operations, and value chain; identified which risks are material;
and developed long-term plans to mitigate and adapt for the likely
impacts of climate change?
2. Has the business adopted the recommendations of the Task Force
on Climate-related Financial Disclosures to help investors, lenders,
and insurance underwriters understand its material risks from
climate change?
3. Does the business factor carbon pricing into its decision-
making processes?
4. Is the business collaborating with industry groups, governments,
environmental organizations, and/or academic institutions to develop or
advocate for climate change solutions?
5. Has the business set long-term, science-based21 targets for reducing its
greenhouse gas emissions?
20 OECD, OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Canada 2017.

21 Targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are considered “science-based” if they are in line with
the level needed to keep the global temperature increase below two degrees Celsius, compared with
pre-industrial times

CHAPTER 6
Natural Capital Constraints
Chapter Summary
• Countries around the world are experiencing increasing water scarcity, and
Canada is no different: by 2030, a large area of Central Canada is expected
to be at high risk of water stress.
• Wildlife populations in Canada are in serious decline and biodiversity is under

threat; meanwhile, global use of natural resources is increasing rapidly.
• Many factors—some environmental, some strategic—are driving the replacement

of the “take, make, use, dispose” approach of traditional business models with
a circular approach. The circular approach prioritizes the repair, reuse, and
recycling of products, components, and materials to keep them in use for as long
as possible.
• Renewable energy use and production is expected to continue to increase its

penetration throughout the economy over the next decade, and the clean-tech
market is a growing opportunity for businesses in Canada.

Canada 2030
Increasing Water Scarcity

While water covers 70.0 per cent of our
planet, only 3.0 per cent of the world’s water
is fresh.1 Countries around the world are
experiencing water scarcity as a result of
climate change, increases in population,
rapid urbanization, agricultural intensification,
and industrial expansion.
Canada is no different: British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan
are already facing extreme and exceptional levels of drought2 and by
2030, a large area of Central Canada is expected to be at high risk
of water stress.3 (See Exhibit 4.) Water supply constraints could be a
major risk for many Canadian businesses, especially those in industry,
agriculture, transportation, and energy. Without adequate access to fresh
water, supply chains could be disrupted, crop yields could be impacted,
ecosystems could be damaged, employee, supplier, and customer health
could worsen, and global conflicts could become more frequent.
Ecosystem Decline and Loss

of Biodiversity
Droughts, floods, fires, storms, rising sea levels, and ocean
acidification, resulting from humankind’s greenhouse gas emissions,
are devastating earth’s delicately balanced ecosystems.4 Wildlife
populations in Canada are in serious decline: almost half of Canada’s
900+ monitored wildlife species reduced in number between 1970
and 2014, losing an average 83 per cent of their population over that
time period.5 The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has named habitat
loss—caused by deforestation, agriculture, urbanization, and industrial
1 World Wildlife Fund, Water Scarcity.

2 Government of Canada, Canadian Drought Monitor.
3 World Resources Institute, Measuring, Mapping and Understanding.
4 Kolbert, The Sixth Extinction.
5 World Wildlife Fund Canada, Living Planet Report Canada 2017, 5.

Exhibit 4
Projected Water Stress Globally in 2030
Source: World Resources Institute.
development—as the greatest threat to biodiversity in Canada. Climate

change, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species are also
serious threats.6 A 2017 study, published in the peer-reviewed journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, worryingly forecasts
a mass extinction eliminating 20 to 50 per cent of all living species on
earth by the end of the century.7 As we look ahead to 2030, Canada’s
agriculture, fishing, forestry, food and beverage, and tourism industries
will be at a particular risk of being impacted by ecosystem decline and
loss of biodiversity.
A Growing Circular Economy

Global use of natural resources is forecast to double between 2015 and
2030.8 As the competition for the earth’s finite resources intensifies,
accessing them becomes increasingly difficult and expensive. Many
6 Ibid., 6.
7 Ceballos, Ehrlich, and Dirzo, “Biological Annihilation Via the Ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction.”
8 European Environment Agency, Global Megatrends, 1.

Canada 2030
factors—some environmental, some strategic—are driving the

replacement of the “take, make, use, dispose” approach of traditional
business models with a circular approach. This circular approach
prioritizes the repair, reuse, and recycling of products, components, and
materials to keep them in use for as long as possible. Governments
worldwide are introducing policies to promote the adoption of circular
business models, particularly in Europe, China, and Japan.9 The circular
approach reduces the need for extracting and processing raw materials
and lowers the volume of waste to landfill. It can help a business build
a resilient supply chain, lower costs, drive innovation, and build brand
value. By 2030, the circular economy could generate an additional
$4.5 trillion of economic output globally.10 In Canada, over 120 extended
producer responsibility programs have been introduced by governments
since 2009, requiring producers to take responsibility for certain products
and materials from creation until disposal. As well, further programs
are planned for the coming years.11 Increasingly, companies will need
to explore opportunities to minimize product inputs and maximize
the lifespan of goods to reduce the costs associated with securing
increasingly rare natural resources.
Growth in Renewable Energy

and Clean-Tech
Renewable energy use and production is expected to continue to
increase its penetration throughout the economy over the next decade.
One example of this is that vehicle manufacturers are shifting more
resources and investments from conventional gasoline and diesel
engines to electric vehicles.12 This shift is likely to gain speed as
governments abroad announce plans to ban the sale of traditional
combustion engine-powered cars.13 Indeed, electric vehicles are forecast
to make up half of the global auto market by 2030.14 Renewable energy
9 Ellen MacArthur Foundation and McKinsey & Company, Towards the Circular Economy, 26.
10 Lacy and Rutqvist, Waste to Wealth.
11 EPR Canada, 2016 Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Summary Report, 4.
12 Holley, Why 2017 Will Go Down as the Beginning of the End.
13 Beene and Lippert, California Considers Following China.
14 Mosquet and others, The Electric Car Tipping Point.

currently makes up 18.9 per cent of Canada’s primary energy supply.15

Canada is one of But, with Canada transitioning away from coal-fired power, pricing carbon
the world’s largest pollution, investing in clean technology, and increasing the amount of
producers of some electricity generated from renewable sources, the country’s share of
of the crucial renewables should increase.16
minerals needed
for renewable Canada is one of the world’s largest producers of some of the crucial
energy systems. minerals needed for renewable energy systems. These include 14 of
the 19 minerals needed for the production of solar photovoltaic panels,
copper used for wind turbines and electric cars, and iron and carbon
for steel, used for wind turbines and light-rail transport systems.17 The
clean-tech market is a growing opportunity for businesses in Canada,
particularly those in the mining, manufacturing, energy, transportation,
and technology sectors, along with those working in financial services.

1. How could water supply constraints impact the business?
2. What more could the business be doing to manage its water use and
reduce water consumption?
3. Which steps is the business taking to make more efficient use of scarce
resources and reduce its environmental footprint?
4. Are the organization’s sustainability efforts being communicated to
investors/stakeholders in a way that links them to the long-term value
of the business?
5. Does the business use natural capital accounting?
6. Which opportunities might present to the business by keeping products,
components, and materials economically productive at their highest utility
for as long as possible? What are the risks to the business associated
with not doing so?
15 Natural Resources Canada, About Renewable Energy.

16 Government of Canada, Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth.
17 Gómez-Cotta, Mining Firms Clean House.

CHAPTER 7
Technological Advances
Chapter Summary
• Advances in technology are transforming the way Canadians live and

do business.
• Developments in artificial intelligence seem set to make some aspects

of science fiction a reality.
• Digital sharing economy platforms are transforming the ways in which

we use, consume, and pay for goods and services, while the Internet
of Things (IoT) is accelerating rapidly.
• 3D printing is transforming what, where, and how products are designed,

manufactured, distributed, consumed, and even serviced.
• Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are on course to majorly disrupt traditional

financial systems, and the adoption of advanced robotics is taking off.
• Rapid advances in technology provide a multitude of opportunities

to businesses, but they don’t come without risks.
• Businesses are facing increasing challenges with cyber security and

many Canadian jobs are at risk from automation.

Artificial Intelligence: Making Science

Fiction a Reality
Advances in computing are enabling machines
to “think” for themselves, using algorithms
that learn and evolve on their own, over time.
Artificial intelligence (AI) allows computers
to process vast amounts of data to make
meaningful decisions and to perform tasks
that would normally require human intelligence.
There are many examples of AI in use today, from voice-powered
personal assistants like Siri and Alexa, to content suggestions on Netflix.
But, AI is still in its infancy and is developing rapidly. Ethical, legal,
regulatory, and economic questions remain, as do serious concerns
about cyber security. Nevertheless, by 2030, advances in AI could result
in Canadians having autonomous vehicles, home robots, improved health
outcomes, and greater educational opportunities.1,2 AI could replace
people in certain professions, such as taxi and truck driving, but it will
also create new types of jobs and lower the cost of many goods and
services.3 AI promises to revolutionize many aspects of a company’s
operations. The speed of adoption and the areas where AI is unleashed
will determine how quickly its potential revolutionary impact will be felt.
There is much promise in this area, but much work to do as well.
A Growing Sharing Economy

The “sharing economy” is a term applied to the sharing of underused
assets, for the mutual benefit of the owner and user. Digital platforms
are commonly used to connect owners with users who wish to share
an asset. Perhaps the best-known examples of sharing economy
platforms include the property-sharing platform Airbnb, with 150 million
1 2015 Study Panel, Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030, 7.

2 Ibid.
3 Ibid., 8.

Canada 2030
users in 20174; and the ride-sharing platform Uber, which has enabled
Sharing economy over five billion rides between its launch in 2009 and mid-2017.5
platforms are The concept of sharing is not new—people have been sharing goods
transforming the and services throughout history. But, digital-sharing economy platforms
ways in which are transforming the ways in which we use, consume, and pay for goods
we use, consume, and services, and are disrupting industries such as transportation and
and pay for goods tourism. By 2030, the culture of ownership is likely to have changed
and services. dramatically: people and businesses may not buy products the way they
do today, but choose to rent or lease them instead.6 Developments in
the sharing economy could have a major impact on a business’s product
or service offering and customers. Sharing economy platforms are
rewriting the rules around building trust and connection with customers.
Leveraging the lessons of the sharing economy is something that will
require close observation.
A Surge in the Number of

IoT‑Connected Devices
The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the concept of embedding “things”
(such as lights, fridges, coffee machines, heaters, engines) with sensors,
then connecting them to mobile devices, people, or other “things” via
the Internet. Broadband Internet is becoming cheaper, faster, and more
widely available, while sensor and technology costs are decreasing, and
smart phone ownership is increasing. The IoT is rapidly accelerating,
with more and more devices being created with sensors and Wi-Fi
capabilities. The number of IoT home devices in Canada is forecast
to grow almost 60 per cent between 2017 and 2021 alone.7 By 2030,
the IoT could add $14 trillion to the global economy8 and revolutionize
everyday life. An increased wealth of information about how people live
their lives will come with these new connected devices. Navigating the
4 Reuters, “Airbnb CEO Invites Some Property Hosts.”

5 Etherington, Uber Crosses The 5 Billion Trip Milestone.
6 Auken, Welcome to 2030.
7 Nargas, Taylor, and Wallace, Canadian Consumer Connected Mobility and Connected Home Devices.
8 Accenture, Winning With the Industrial Internet of Things.

opportunities without prompting significant privacy concerns will be a key

component of the evolution of these products.
The Widespread Adoption

of 3D Printing
3D printers apply layers of material—such as heated plastic, or powders
in the case of metals and ceramics—to create anything from apparel
and toys, to entire buildings. They have the potential to transform what,
where, and how products are designed, manufactured, distributed,
consumed, and even serviced.9 The automotive, medical, aerospace,
and consumer products industries are currently the greatest adopters
of 3D printing.10 The use of 3D printing is in its infancy when it comes
to the medical profession, but it is expected to transform health care
in the coming years. For example, human tissues could be printed,
replacing the need for some organ transplants. In addition, customized
pills containing multiple drugs, all with different release times, could be
printed for patients with complex conditions, and customized prosthetics
could be printed exactly tailored to a patient’s needs.11
By 2030, the global 3D printing market could be worth US$70 billion

annually.12 The cost benefits of 3D printing could even lead to the return
of manufacturing to Canada from lower-wage countries.13 3D printing
has the potential to reduce waste and advance the circular economy,14
but 3D scanning and copyright infringement remain significant threats
to business. Businesses may wish to examine how 3D printing could
improve their manufacturing process and product offering, while
considering how it could impact demand for their products, where
products will be cheapest to produce, and where they will end up
at the end of their life.
9 World Economic Forum, Technology and Innovation, 4.

10 Ibid., 17.
11 Trounson, Here’s How 3D Printing Could Change the Future of Medicine.
12 Mercer, Home 3D Printers Market Opportunities and Obstacles.
14 Ibid.

Canada 2030
The Rising Use of Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies (digital currencies that use cryptography for security)
are on course to majorly disrupt traditional financial systems. The value
of Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, soared by a whopping
1,330.0 per cent over the course of 201715 before dropping significantly
in early 2018. With the exponential rise in Bitcoin value, interest in
alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple,
has been growing too. Dubai recently launched its own cryptocurrency,16
Estonia is floating the idea of a national cryptocurrency prototype,17 and
banks in Japan are hoping to launch their own cryptocurrency in time for
the Tokyo Olympics in 2020.18
As we look to 2030, the use of cryptocurrencies in Canada should

increase significantly, but the Bank of Canada has not yet announced
any plans to launch its own cryptocurrency.19 We can, however, expect to
see greater regulation to help tackle some of the issues associated with
cryptocurrencies, including tax evasion, money laundering, contraband
purchases, the financing of terrorism, and extortion, as is already
planned in the European Union.20 Businesses should explore how these
new payment forms may affect them. They will need to determine if
they wish to be early adopters or prefer a more cautious wait-and-see
approach. There are certainly risks associated with both.
Increasing Job Losses Resulting From

Robotic Automation
By 2030, up to 800 million workers (30.0 per cent of the global workforce)
could lose their jobs due to robotic automation.21 Meanwhile, in Canada,
nearly 42 per cent of the labour force is forecast to be at a high risk of
15 Coinbase, Bitcoin.
16 Galeon, This City Now Has Its Very Own Cryptocurrency.
17 Cellan-Jones, Tech Tent.
18 Kharpal, Japanese Banks Are Thinking of Making Their Own Cryptocurrency.
19 Bloomberg News, “Bank of Canada Experimenting.”
20 Kollewe, Bitcoin.
21 Manyika and others, Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained, 2.

being affected by automation in the next two decades.22 Robots have

The average cost long been a part of the manufacturing process, but cheaper costs and
of a data breach improved capabilities (along with artificial intelligence) are leading to
to a company has their greater adoption across industries where they have not traditionally
been estimated been deployed.23 Worldwide spending on robotics and related services
as $4 million. is forecast to double from $91.5 billion in 2016 to more than $188 billion
in 2020.24 Adopting advanced robotics could boost productivity, improve
safety, and cut labour costs. There will be new opportunities associated
with designing, programming, and servicing robots, but routine and
repetitive jobs will likely be lost to robots. Historically, it was blue-collar
workers who were most impacted by automation. But, as we look to
the future, we’ll increasingly see white-collar workers being impacted
too, placing significant pressures on governments and social systems.25
Businesses should examine how automation could affect their entire
value chain and take steps to prepare their workforce for imminent
changes, while looking for opportunities for value creation.
Growing Cyber Security Risks

Rapid advances in digital technology, connectivity, and artificial
intelligence are associated with growing cyber security and privacy
risks. Indeed, the number of cyber attacks globally is increasing.26
Cyber attacks could harm the electronic controls of our power grids,
water treatment plants, and telecommunication networks; interfere with
the production and delivery of basic goods and services; and undermine
our privacy. These risks are increasing as those seeking to infiltrate,
exploit, or attack our cyber systems are becoming more sophisticated
and better resourced than ever before.27 Businesses are increasingly
seeing their data threatened, at a significant cost. The average cost
of a data breach to a company has been estimated as $4 million.28
22 Lamb, The Talented Mr. Robot, 3.

24 International Data Corporation (IDC), Worldwide Spending on Robotics.
25 Lamb, The Talented Mr. Robot.
26 Allianz, Allianz Risk Barometer: Top Business Risks 2017.
27 Government of Canada, Canada’s Cyber Security Strategy.
28 IBM Security, 2017 Ponemon Cost of Data Breach Study.

Canada 2030
Despite a concerning track record, many company leaders are only just
waking up to the risks associated with cyber attacks. A 2017 survey
published by the Harvard Business Review found that only 38.0 per
cent of board directors had a high level of concern regarding cyber
security risks, and an even smaller proportion said they were prepared
for them.29 Businesses would be wise to conduct a full cyber security
risk assessment, consider potential emergency scenarios, and establish
a risk management strategy.
They should consider boosting their technological capabilities

for cyber security and ensure they are compliant with all data
protection legislation.

1. Which opportunities are there for the business to use artificial
intelligence to perform tasks that would normally require
human intelligence?
2. How could the sharing economy impact the way customers use,
consume, and pay for the businesses goods or services?
3. How could IoT-connected devices improve the business’s operations
or service offering to customers?
4. How could 3D printing be used to transform what, where, and how
a business’s products are designed, manufactured, distributed,
consumed, or serviced?
5. Which opportunities do cryptocurrencies present for the business?
6. How could the business help workers displaced by automation
to minimize periods of unemployment and ensure they have a
prosperous future?
7. How secure are the business’s cyber systems and how well-prepared
are they to respond to a cyber attack?
29 Cheng and Groysberg, Why Boards Aren’t Dealing With Cyberthreats?

CHAPTER 8
Economic Uncertainty
Chapter Summary
• Economic power is continuing to shift from Canada and other developed

countries to emerging market nations, while the income gap between Canada’s
rich and poor continues to widen.
• Female economic empowerment is increasing, although there is still some way

to go before gender equity is reached.
• Meanwhile, years of low interest rates, soaring real estate prices, and stagnating
wage growth have fuelled record levels of consumer borrowing, and household
debt is forecast to continue increasing.
• The changing economic environment could prove challenging for businesses

in Canada. However, they have some real opportunities to create a competitive
advantage and positively influence the country’s economy.

Canada 2030
The Continuing Economic Power Shift

In recent years, economic power has been
shifting from Canada and other developed
countries to emerging market nations such
as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South
Africa (the BRICS nations).
Although the growth of some emerging economies is now slowing
(and, in Brazil and Russia’s case, reversing),1 the E7 (“emerging 7”)
economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey)
are predicted to overtake those of the G7 (Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) by 2030, both in terms of size and
purchasing power.2 As we look to 2030, China, the U.S., and India are
forecast to remain the world’s largest economies (GDP by Purchasing
Power Parity), while Canada is forecast to slip from 17th place in 2016
to 18th by 2030.3 As Canada struggles with slow economic growth
compared with some emerging market nations, businesses will need
to address the issue of increased foreign competition while exploring
how to create long-term value.
Rising Financial Inequality

The income gap between Canada’s rich and poor has been widening
over several decades,4 as has the wealth gap.5 The U.S. has the greatest
income inequality of all G7 countries, followed by the U.K, but Canada
isn’t far behind.6 (See Chart 1.)
1 World Bank, GDP Growth (Annual %).

2 Hawksworth and Chan, The World in 2050.
3 Hawksworth, Audino, and Clarry, The Long View, 7.
4 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table 206-0032, Upper Income Limit.
5 Uppal and LaRochelle-Côté, Changes in Wealth, 3.
6 OECD, Income Inequality.

Chart 1
Income Equality, Late 2000s
(Gini coefficient)
Grade: A B C D
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
By 2016, the top CEOs in Canada were earning 209 times more than the
average worker, pushing inequality to record highs.7 Growing economic
inequality is bad for society, but the consequences for the poorest
people are particularly challenging. If this trend continues, employers
will face increasing calls to pay their low-paid staff a living wage—
reflecting the amount needed to meet the actual costs of living in a
specific community, rather than the minimum wage (the legal amount all
employers must pay).8 Rising financial inequality can impact everyone in
a business’s value chain, from suppliers to employees, customers, and
investors. It can drive populism, nationalism, and societal fragmentation,
and is a systemic risk for businesses across Canada.
7 Macdonald, Climbing Up and Kicking Down, 6.

8 Living Wage Canada, What Is a Living Wage?

Canada 2030
Increasing Female Economic

Empowerment
The labour force participation rate of women in Canada has been rising
since the 1950s: by 2014, women made up almost half (47.0 per cent)
of the entire Canadian workforce.9 Women’s average annual wages and
salaries have been increasing too and the gender wage gap is slowly
closing. Women in Canada now earn $0.87 for every dollar earned by
men, up from $0.75 in 1986.10 Canada’s gender pay gap may be less
pronounced than that of the United States and Japan, but it is still higher
than that of Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom.11 Not only that,
38.0 per cent of Canadian public companies have no female directors
or executive officers and only 14.0 per cent of public company board
members are female, suggesting there is still a lot of work to be done
to reach gender equity.12 Differences in workforce participation, levels
of pay, and seniority of roles exist for a variety of reasons. These include
gender segregation in fields of study, women interrupting their careers
for caregiving responsibilities, and discrimination and biases against
women.13 The Government of Canada is introducing a legislated pay
equity regime in federally regulated sectors14 while the Government of
Ontario is hoping to introduce a Pay Transparency Act to ensure that
compensation is based on a job’s requirements and the candidate’s
qualifications, rather than gender.15 If women take advantage of certain
career equalizers,16 and if businesses, government, and academia
provide crucial support, it has been suggested that the gender pay
gap in Canada could be eliminated in Canada by 2035.17 Many studies
(such as the one published for the Peterson Institute for International
9 Statistics Canada, The Surge of Women in the Workforce.

10 Moyser, Women and Paid Work.
11 OECD, Gender Wage Gap.
12 Ontario Securities Commission, Staff Review of Women on Boards.
13 OECD, The Pursuit of Gender Equality, 4.
14 Government of Canada, Equality + Growth, A Strong Middle Class, 42.
15 Legislative Assembly of Ontario, Bill 203, Pay Transparency Act, 2018.
16 Using digital technologies to connect, learn, and work; proactively manage their careers; and acquire
stronger digital skills.
17 Accenture, Getting to Equal 2017, 2.

Economics in 2017)18 have shown that the presence of women in

The presence of corporate leadership positions can improve business performance.
women in corpor- Therefore, working to place more women in senior roles is a key
ate leadership opportunity for Canadian businesses.
positions can
improve business
performance. Greater Consumer Debt and
Financial Vulnerability
Years of low interest rates, soaring real estate prices, and stagnating
wage growth have fuelled record levels of consumer borrowing in
Canada. The country now has the highest household debt-to-income
ratio of all G7 countries.19 By the end of 2017, Canadian households
had $1.70 of credit-market debt (consumer credit, mortgage debt,
and non-mortgage loans) for every dollar of disposable income.20 The
Government of Canada predicts levels of household debt will continue
increasing, at least in the short to medium term.21 If debt levels increase
and interest rates rise, the ability of households to service their debt will
be increasingly stretched, taking the financial vulnerability of the average
Canadian to levels “beyond historical experience.”22

1. How can the business continue to create long-term value when faced
with increasing foreign competition?
2. Which business opportunities could result from growth in emerging
market nations?
3. Which steps is the company taking to reduce financial inequality, both
within its workforce, its supply chain, and the wider communities in which
it operates?
18 Noland, Moran, and Kotschwar, Is Gender Diversity Profitable?

19 OECD, Household Debt.
20 Statistics Canada, National Balance Sheet.
21 Parliamentary Budget Officer, Household Indebtedness, 11.
22 Ibid., 2.

Canada 2030
4. How is the business addressing the gender pay gap? Which steps is the
business taking to increase the number of women in senior positions
within the business?
5. How does the business help its employees, customers, and the wider
community with financial literacy?

CHAPTER 9
Public Policy
Chapter Summary
• Canada’s export growth is forecast to outpace overall economic growth.

And, with the introduction of new international trading agreements on the
horizon, Canada can expect to see increasing trade with countries outside
the United States.
• Businesses and governments will have a key role to play in ensuring the
United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals are achieved.
• Meanwhile, public debt is predicted to continue growing in Canada for the

foreseeable future—a move that could see interest rates rise as a result.
• Public policy developments should be watched closely, as the nature of

political cycles can lead to sudden changes in direction.

Canada 2030
New Trading Agreements and

a Growth in Canadian Exports
The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on
international trade, facilitated through trade
agreements such as the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the
Canada‑European Union Comprehensive
Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
Currently, Canada’s principal export trading partners are the are the
U.S. (74.3 per cent), China (4.9 per cent), the U.K. (2.8 per cent), Japan
(2.1 per cent), and Mexico (1.7 per cent).1 However, with the renegotiation
of NAFTA, the new Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, and
expected bilateral trade deals with China and post-Brexit Britain, Canada
could expect to see growing trade with countries outside the U.S. as we
look to 2030. With the U.S. being Canada’s largest trading partner, new
trade barriers imposed under NAFTA would have a detrimental impact
on the Canadian economy. But, despite this risk, Canada’s export growth
is forecast to outpace overall economic growth to meet the needs of a
burgeoning global population.2 Businesses should explore what new and
renegotiated trading agreements could mean for them, both in terms of
risks and opportunities.
The UN’s Sustainable

Development Goals
In 2015, 193 countries, including Canada, signed the 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development. This involved committing to 17 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets laid out by the United
Nations to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for
all.3 To ensure the SDGs are met by 2030, governments worldwide are
1 Statistics Canada, Merchandise Trade: Canada’s Top 10 Principal Trading Partners.

2 Conference Board of Canada, The, Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast.
3 United Nations, Transforming Our World.

establishing new regulations and guidelines that will impact business.

Over the past Although it is the responsibility of governments to tackle the SDGs at a
decade, Canada national level, businesses have a key role to play in achieving the SDGs.4
has experienced Companies create economic growth and employment, and are a source
strong economic of skills, finance, technology, and innovation. Many businesses are
growth, but it has aligning their strategic plans to the SDGs and reporting against these,
come at a cost. but a significant number have yet to realize their role and importance
in advancing the goals. As Canadian provinces and local governments
take up their role in advancing the SDGs, this should have a knock-on
effect on business and industry, as companies seek to address the risks
and leverage the opportunities presented by the goals. Businesses may
wish to consider where they have the potential to contribute toward
the goals and communicate their strategy and impact to investors and
other stakeholders.
Growing Public Debt

Over the past decade, Canada has experienced strong economic
growth, but it has come at a cost. Combined federal and provincial
debt increased from $833 billion in 2007–08 to $1.4 trillion in 2016–17,
representing $37,476 for every Canadian5 and an estimated debt-to-
GDP ratio of 99.4 per cent.6 Servicing this debt in 2015–16 cost the
federal and provincial governments $62.8 billion in interest payments,
equating to $1,752 for every Canadian.7 High levels of public debt are
not unique to Canada. With governments worldwide taking advantage
of historically low interest rates, debt-to-GDP ratios globally have
increased significantly in recent years.8 An aging population will add to
public debt challenges, with an increased need for spending on health
care and pensions. Public debt is predicted to continue growing in
Canada for the foreseeable future, with several governments projecting
budgetary deficits, financing capital projects with debt, and lacking plans
4 World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Business and the SDGs.
5 Lammam, MacIntyre, Ren, and Hasan, The Cost of Government Debt in Canada, 1.
6 Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook—Public Debt.
7 Lammam, MacIntyre, Ren, and Hasan, The Cost of Government Debt in Canada, 1.
8 Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook—Public Debt.

Canada 2030
for returning to a balanced budget.9 While public debt can stimulate

the economy, debt servicing costs can negatively impact the revenue
available for public programs like health care, education, and social
services.10 If public debt grows too high, investors in government bonds
will expect higher returns for the risk associated with the debt not
being repaid, therefore driving up interest rates for government bonds.
If interest rates on public debt increase, they are also likely to rise for
private debt, impacting businesses and their suppliers, customers,
and employees.

1. What impact could new and renegotiated trade agreements have
on the business?
2. How could the business contribute toward achieving the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals?
3. If interest rates were to rise in response to growing debt (or other
factors), what impact would this have on the business?
9 Lammam, MacIntyre, Ren, and Hasan, The Cost of Government Debt in Canada.
10 Ibid., 1.

CHAPTER 10
Changing Values
and Expectations
Chapter Summary
• Generation Z (typically referred to as those born after 1997) will be reaching

adulthood over the coming decade.
• While members of Generation Z share some characteristics with the millennials

who come before them, they have some distinct values and expectations, likely
to impact businesses in a variety of ways.
• E-commerce is forecast to grow as consumers shop more and more online,

while breaches of trust have left investors and consumers calling for increased
corporate accountability and transparency.
• Attitudes regarding the responsibilities of businesses, both toward individuals

and the environment, are changing.
• As we look towards 2030, we can expect to see more businesses articulating

their purpose beyond profit, and businesses playing a stronger role in tackling
social and environmental challenges through their core business operations.

Canada 2030
Generation Z’s Coming of Age

The next population wave after millennials is
Generation Z (typically referred to as those born
after 1997).1 By 2030, members of Generation Z
will be in their 20s and early 30s, and are
forecast to account for 30.0 per cent of the
global population.2
While members of Generation Z share some characteristics with
millennials, they have some distinct values and expectations.
For example, culture commentators sparks & honey argue that
the following stereotypes largely apply to Generation Z. They:
• have never known a world without the Internet;

• make technology central to every aspect of their lives;
• have an average attention span of just eight seconds;
• embrace multiculturalism, ethnic diversity, and same sex marriage,
and expect continued social progress;
• are particularly risk-averse;
• want jobs with a positive social and environmental impact.3
As we look towards 2030, Generation Z will play a stronger role

in Canada’s workforce, moving into leadership positions, making
higher‑value purchasing decisions, influencing the economy, and
shaping society. As with all generations, individuals will display a variety
of characteristics, but the general trends show a generation that may
act and purchase differently than those that came before. Businesses
will need to examine their recruitment and retention policies, marketing
strategies, and products and services to ensure they are addressing
Generation Z’s expectations.
1 Pew Research Centre, Generations and Age.

2 Weinswig, Gen Z, 15.
3 sparks & honey, Meet Generation Z.

Growth in E-Commerce Disrupting the

Retail Sector
Lower prices, better deals, and the ability to shop 24/7 from the
convenience of their own home are driving consumers to buy more
online.4 By 2020, e-commerce is expected to account for 10.0 per
cent of total retail sales in Canada (up from 5.8 per cent in 2015).5
As consumers continue to buy more online and foot traffic to malls
declines, traditional retailers face a greater risk of falling profitability
and even bankruptcy. Canada has 16.5 square feet of retail space per
person, second only to the U.S.—so the risk to Canadian retailers is
significant.6 For example, in 2017, Sears Canada (Canada’s largest
retailer, for much of its existence) announced it was going out of
business after 65 years of business.7 When it comes to e-commerce,
Canada lags behind other developed countries, mainly because retailer
investment returns are hard to obtain in such a geographically large
country with a dispersed population.8 But, as we look toward 2030,
online sales look set to grow (both in real terms and as a percentage
of total retail sales). Retail businesses should assess what impact the
growth of online shopping could have on their bricks and mortar stores,
while considering which investments will be necessary to deliver growth
in online sales.
Calls for Greater Corporate

Transparency
Breaches of trust, such as the 2015 Volkswagen emissions scandal,9
have left investors and consumers calling for increased corporate
accountability and transparency. Trust in business is in decline in
almost every country worldwide.10 According to the 2017 Edelman
4 Statista, Reasons Consumers Prefer Online.

5 eMarketer, Retail Ecommerce Sales in Canada.
6 Weiss, Mall Monitor—Examining the State of U.S. Malls.
7 Sears Canada, Going Out of Business.
8 eMarketer, Ecommerce in Canada 2017.
9 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Volkswagen Violations.
10 Edelman, Edelman Trust Barometer—Global Results.

Canada 2030
Trust Barometer, only half of Canada’s population has faith that

Businesses will businesses will do the right thing, and they do not generally consider
need to consider CEOs to be a credible source of information.11 However, Canadian
which steps businesses have a distinct advantage: Edelman’s 2018 Trust Barometer
they can take found that Canadian companies were the most trusted globally.12
to build trust
with customers, The rise of social media has made it easier for individuals and groups
communities, and to exert pressure on companies and expose their shortcomings.
wider society. Recognizing this, some businesses (including Nestlé, Unilever, and
Walmart) are exploring how blockchain technology can be used to
improve supply chain transparency.13 Others (like Procter and Gamble)
are making bold pledges to provide customers with clear, reliable,
and accessible information, to help them make informed decisions.14
The dark side of social media is also apparent as fake news and social
media manipulation are growing concerns. As we look toward 2030,
businesses will need to consider which steps they can take to build
trust with customers, communities, and wider society.
The Rise of Purpose-Driven Business

Attitudes regarding the responsibilities of businesses, both toward
individuals and the environment, are changing. Evidence is mounting
that having a compelling purpose beyond making a profit should help
businesses to survive and thrive.15 Advocates for a purpose-driven
approach to business believe it’s better for profits in the long run, and
that society and shareholders need not be in conflict.16 Indeed, research
has found that purpose-driven businesses experience greater revenue
growth, have more engaged employees, more loyal customers, and are
better at innovating—giving them a distinct competitive advantage.17
Purposeful brands have been found to outperform the stock market
11 Edelman, Edelman Trust Barometer—Canadian Results.

12 Ibid.
13 Edie Newsroom, “IBM Blockchain Food Safety Programme.”
14 Sustainable Brands, P&G Latest CPG Company to Disclose Fragrance Ingredients.
15 Warin, The Evidence Behind Values and Purpose.
16 Economist, The, “The Parable of St Paul.”
17 Harvard Business Review, The Business Case for Purpose.

by 206.0 per cent.18 There are already over 150 Certified B Corps

(for‑profit companies certified by the non-profit B Lab to meet rigorous
standards of social and environmental performance, accountability, and
transparency) in Canada, making this the second largest community in
the world.19 As we look to 2030, we can expect to see more businesses
articulating their purpose beyond profit, and businesses playing a
stronger role in tackling social and environmental challenges through
their core business operations.

1. How is the business planning to address Generation Z’s expectations,
both in the workplace and marketplace?
2. Which strategies does the business have in place to address the
opportunities and challenges posed by growth in online sales and a
decline in traditional retailing?
3. Which steps can the business take to build trust with customers,
communities, and wider society?
4. What is the business’s broader social or environmental purpose, beyond
profit? Is this purpose embedded throughout the business’s operations?
18 Havas Media, Meaningful Brands.

19 B Lab Canada, B the Change.

CHAPTER 11
Health and Diet
Chapter Summary
• Obesity and associated lifestyle diseases are expected to keep rising in Canada,
and cardiovascular disease is likely to remain the leading cause of death.
• The cost of mental illness to the Canadian economy is increasing, while

antimicrobial resistance is threatening the prevention and treatment of an
ever‑increasing range of infections.
• As we look toward 2030, we can expect to see Canadians adopting diets higher
in local, organic, plant-based food.
• Businesses in the health, pharmaceutical, food, and agricultural sectors will

be particularly impacted by changes to the nation’s health and diet.

Greater Obesity and Incidence

of Lifestyle Diseases
The prevalence of obesity in Canada is higher
than most other OECD countries.1 In 2015,
61.0 per cent of Canadian adults were classified
as overweight or obese, up from 59.0 per cent
in 2004.2
Excess weight can negatively impact every aspect of health, from
reproductive and respiratory function, to memory and mood. It also
increases the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some
cancers.3 Some 65 to75 per cent of the prevalence of hypertension
can be directly attributed to obesity.4 Obesity is expected to keep
rising in Canada until at least 2030,5 cardiovascular disease is likely
to remain the leading cause of death,6 and increasing numbers
of Canadians are expected to suffer from diabetes/pre-diabetes.7
The growing prevalence of obesity and associated lifestyle diseases
could have serious implications for the cost of health care, workplace
absenteeism, and people’s quality of life.
The Rising Cost of Mental Illness

Mental illness is costing the Canadian economy over $20 billion a
year due to lost labour force participation, and by 2030 is forecast
to reach $29.1 billion.8 These figures don’t include the costs of patient
care, insurance for employers, services in communities, or the many
intangible costs for those affected and their families. According to
the Canadian Mental Health Association, one in five Canadians will
1 OECD, Obesity Update, 3.

2 Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey—Nutrition.
3 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Obesity Prevention Source.
4 Hall, do Carmo, da Silva, Wang, and Hall, “Obesity-Induced Hypertension.”
5 OECD, Obesity Update, 6.
6 World Health Organization, Projections of Mortality and Causes of Death.
7 Diabetes Canada, Diabetes Statistics in Canada.
8 Conference Board of Canada, The, Mental Health Issues in the Labour Force.

Canada 2030
experience a mental health problem in any given year.9 In the workplace,

Canada is likely discrimination against those with mental health problems can contribute
to face many chal- to reduced employment, missed career advancement opportunities,
lenges associated and job loss. Poor mental health is associated with substance abuse,
with mental health addiction, other medical conditions, poverty, homelessness, crime,
as it looks to 2030. premature death, and suicide.10 Canada is likely to face many challenges
associated with mental health as it looks to 2030. Employers should
consider the impact of mental health problems on their employees and
business operations, and take steps to support those affected.
A Surge in Superbugs
Antimicrobial resistance is threatening the prevention and treatment
of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites,
viruses, and fungi.11 Growth of antimicrobial resistance has been
attributed to the overuse of antimicrobial drugs in veterinary and human
medicine.12 Weak micro-organisms are killed, but the survivors may
be made stronger as they adapt to survive.13 As micro-organisms
build up a resistance to antimicrobial drugs, they become ineffective.
And, currently treatable illnesses and infections become difficult to
control or cure, creating an economic and emotional burden for families
and Canada’s health care system. The World Health Organization states
that 700,000 people worldwide die annually from infections caused
by superbugs (antibiotic-resistant bacteria).14 In Canada, medical
costs associated with antimicrobial resistance have been estimated at
$1 billion.15 Without effective action, superbugs are predicted to cause
10 million deaths a year worldwide by 2050.16 Businesses working in
the health, pharmaceutical, and agricultural sectors will have a big role
to play in tackling antimicrobial resistance over the coming years.
9 Canadian Mental Health Association, Fast Facts About Mental Illness.

10 Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Mental Illness and Addictions.
11 World Health Organization, Antimicrobial Resistance.
12 Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System, 4.
13 Shore, Five Things.
14 World Health Organization, An International Legal Framework.
15 Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System, 1.
16 Review on Anti-Microbial Resistance, Tackling Drug-Resistant Infections Globally, 4.

Diets Higher in Local, Organic,

Plant‑Based Foods
While the prevalence of obesity and associated lifestyle diseases is
growing, some Canadians are becoming more aware of the benefits
associated with a healthy diet. Canada’s organic food sector is
flourishing, with double-digit annual growth in retail sales over the last
decade.17 Canada’s organic food sector is expected to grow over the
coming years, as producers become more organized, trade barriers
are reduced, and consumer demand grows.18 Canadians’ appetite for
locally produced food has also surged over the last decade,19 with a
significant proportion of the population willing to pay a premium for local
food.20 Meat consumption per capita has been declining in Canada
since 1999,21 but it remains higher than in most other OECD countries.22
New government-issued food guidelines in Canada (and around the
world) recommend that people increase their consumption of plant-
based foods.23 Switching to a diet relying more on plant-based foods
could save up to 8 million lives globally by 2050 and reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by two-thirds.24 Changes in diet will impact a business’s
suppliers, employees, customers, and the communities in which they
live and work. Businesses may wish to examine the foods they serve
or make available in the workplace, while those working in the food,
retail, and agricultural sectors should examine the longer-term demand
for the products they are producing and selling.
17 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada’s Organic Products Industry Overview.

18 Ibid.
19 Edge, Canada’s Growing Appetite for Local Food.
20 Loyalty One, Buy Local Hot Among 61% of Canadians.
21 Burt, Strengthening Canada’s Food Chain.
22 OECD, Meat Consumption.
23 Government of Canada, Summary of Guiding Principles and Recommendations.
24 Springmann, Godfray, Rayner, and Scarborough, “Analysis and Valuation of the Health
and Climate Change.”

Canada 2030

1. What is the business doing to help tackle obesity and lifestyle diseases
in its workforce, customer base, and the communities in which
it operates?
2. What is the business doing to promote mental health and wellness, and
support mental resilience in the workforce?
3. How does the business encourage its employees, customers, and wider
communities to have a healthy diet?
4. How are changes to the nation’s health and diet likely to affect
the business? Which risks and opportunities are associated with
these changes?

CHAPTER 12
Conclusion
Chapter Summary
• Canadian businesses will be subject to a multitude of forces with the potential

to disrupt their entire value chain and the environment in which they operate.
• To succeed, corporate leaders will need to think ahead, make bold decisions,
and innovate.
• Failure to anticipate disruption, or act and adapt, will threaten long-term viability.
• Nimbleness, resiliency, and strong connections to stakeholders will be important
to successfully navigate the disruptive forces shaping the future.
• The next decade presents huge risks and opportunities for Canadian
businesses—it’s time to take action!

Canada 2030
Looking forward, disruption is the overarching

Nimbleness,
trend. Canadian businesses will be subject to a
resiliency, and
strong connections multitude of forces with the potential to disrupt
to stakeholders their entire value chain and the environment in
will be important which they operate.
to successfully
To succeed, corporate leaders will need to think ahead, make bold
navigate the
decisions, and innovate. In doing so, they have the potential to improve
disruptive forces
prospects not just for themselves, but for the communities in which they
shaping the future.
operate and Canada as a whole. Failure to anticipate disruption, or act
and adapt, will threaten long-term viability. Navigating this disruption will
be easier if companies have a compelling purpose that guides their work.
This report is intended to help readers understand the disruptive forces

likely to affect organizations, address the risks associated with them,
and capitalize on the opportunities they may bring. Two other reports
in our “Canada 2030” series should help readers embed sustainability
considerations into corporate governance and understand the trends
impacting corporate sustainability reporting.
We are entering an age of disruption. Nimbleness, resiliency, and strong

connections to stakeholders will be important to successfully navigate
the disruptive forces shaping the future. The next decade presents huge
risks and opportunities for Canadian businesses—it’s time to take action!
Rate this publication for a chance to win a prize!

www.conferenceboard.ca/e-Library/abstract.aspx?did=9813

Appendix A | The Conference Board of Canada
APPENDIX A
Resources
The Conference Board of Canada has various resources to help

business professionals and investors navigate the trends affecting
business success, address the risks associated with these trends,
and capitalize on the opportunities they may bring. Some of our key
resources are presented below and have been grouped by theme.
Review these resources to find the tools, insights, and best practices
to help your organization respond, leverage, or influence the trends
identified in this report, and address them in your corporate governance
and strategy.
Social Purpose
For a business to survive and thrive over the next decade, it must have
a compelling purpose beyond making profit, embed this purpose across
its operations, and communicate this purpose clearly and authentically
to its stakeholders. The trends in this report can be used to help identify
or refresh your company’s social purpose.
The Social Purpose Company

This briefing examines the drivers for businesses adopting a social
purpose. It offers examples of social purpose companies, and a
social purpose continuum, to help readers understand the steps
necessary to move from a philanthropic model to that of social purpose.
www.conferenceboard.ca/topics/crs/default.aspx.

Canada 2030
The Social Purpose of Business

This webinar features Abby Brennan, Senior Manager of Purpose
Strategy and Activation at PwC; Liz Arkinstall, Manager, Community
Engagement at Libro Credit Union; and Coro Strandberg, President
of Strandberg Consulting, as they share their perspectives on social
purpose, what it is, and why it is relevant to business.
www.conferenceboard.ca/events/webcasts.aspx.
Redefining Products and Brands to Make

a Sustainable Impact
This webinar features Tim Faveri, Vice-President, Sustainability and
Shared Value at Maple Leaf Foods; and Coro Strandberg, President
of Strandberg Consulting, as they discuss how a business identifies
the sustainability megaforces that will affect its future business and
how it evolves its products to position the business for future growth.
Long-Term Vision
Leading companies are setting ambitious, long-term visions to guide
corporate growth in ways that contribute to a prosperous future for
themselves and society. They use sustainability trends research to
inform future strategic priorities and set long-term ambitions to address
societal trends profitably through their core business.
Setting a Long-Term Sustainability Vision

This briefing identifies the drivers for businesses setting a long-
term vision and the benefits for doing so. It contains guidance
around developing your vision story and examples of long-term
vision approaches using sustainability trends as a key input in
corporate strategy.

Sustainability Visions: Fresh Strategies

for Today’s New Realities
This webinar features Rose Perkins, Associate Director, Sustainability
at The Dow Chemical Company; David Redfern, Vice-President and
General Manager of Lafarge Canada; and Coro Strandberg, President
of Strandberg Consulting, as they share their perspectives on setting
long-term sustainability visions and strategies. The webinar describes
the development process and the overall transformational sustainability
ambitions two companies have set, including the drivers, benefits, and
role of sustainability trends analysis.
Developing a Sustainable Product Portfolio

This webinar profiles the latest thinking in sustainable product innovation.
Tim Faveri, Vice- President, Sustainability and Shared Value, Maple Leaf
Foods; and Coro Strandberg, President, Strandberg Consulting, describe
strategies to improve the sustainability impacts of your products and
create customer value.
www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/abstract.aspx?did=9388.
Climate Leadership
Organizations will need to adopt climate leadership measures to help
Canada meet its Paris Agreement obligations and avoid the potentially
catastrophic risks associated with climate change.
Climate Leadership for Business

This briefing provides readers with climate leadership measures to
help organizations reduce the risks associated with climate change
by becoming transformational climate leaders. These leaders transform
their operating models and contexts to enable their business and society
to flourish in the future.

Canada 2030
The Water Imperative: New Standards

in Corporate Water Leadership
This webinar features Alexis Morgan, Lead Advisor on Water
Stewardship at WWF; Andrew Craig, Senior Manager of Environmental
Initiatives at RBC; Jamie MacKinnon, Senior Manager for Global
Sustainability at Molson Coors; and Coro Strandberg, President of
Strandberg Consulting, as they share their perspectives on emerging
water stewardship and standards, water risk considerations of lenders
and insurers, and leading corporate practices.
Corporate Responsibility and

Sustainability Careers
The sustainability megaforces described in Canada 2030: The Defining
Forces Disrupting Business will prompt new roles for sustainability
practitioners. Job descriptions will evolve and skills change as
organizations transition from an operational to a strategic sustainability
focus to achieve greater business and societal results.
Next-Generation Corporate Responsibility

and Sustainability Jobs
This briefing examines the shifting job roles and responsibilities, skills,
and functional knowledge, departmental structures, and reporting
structures associated with next-generation corporate responsibility
and sustainability jobs that are evolving to address emerging
sustainability trends and risks.
Next Generation Skills and Practices

This webinar features Chantale Despres, Director of Sustainability
at CN, as she shares insights into the ways in which the role of the
corporate responsibility and sustainability practitioner is adjusting to
meet new business imperatives and address sustainability megaforces.

The webinar is designed to enable practitioners to achieve greater

influence and success—for the benefit of their organization and society.
Other Resources
• E-library: The Conference Board of Canada’s e-library contains
thousands of reports and webinars covering economic trends,
organizational performance, and public policy issues.
www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/.
• Executive Networks: The Conference Board of Canada offers

numerous executive networking opportunities. Network themes
include Economic Performance and Trends; Energy, Environment,
and Transportation Policy; Health, Health Care, and Wellness; Human
Resource Management; Immigration; Leadership and Governance;
National Security and Public Safety; Organizational Excellence;
Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability; and Science, Technology,
and Innovation Policy.
www.conferenceboard.ca/products/networks.aspx.
• Research Institutes: The Conference Board of Canada produces

cutting-edge research through a number of research institutes.
They include the Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability Institute;
Centre on the Low-Carbon Growth Economy; Food Horizons Canada;
How Canada Performs; L’Institut du Québec; Centre for the North; Centre
for Business Innovation; Global Commerce Centre; National Immigration
Centre; and Professional Development Institute.
www.conferenceboard.ca/specialprojects.aspx.
• Conferences: The Conference Board of Canada runs many conferences

a year, providing senior decision-makers from public and private
sector organizations with opportunities to share ideas on operations
and strategies, learn about next and best practices, and explore
practical business solutions to the challenges faced by Canadian
business leaders.
www.conferenceboard.ca/conf/default.aspx.

Canada 2030
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Canada 2030.

The Defining Forces Disrupting Business

REPORT AUGUST 2018

©2018 The Conference Board of Canada*

Canada 2030 was sponsored by:

This report is an initiative of The Conference Board of Canada’s Corporate

About the Corporate Responsibility &

Canada 2030: The Defining

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

Canada’s population is growing, aging, and becoming progressively

Climate change is expected to have significant implications for Canada

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. ii

Despite being a water-rich country, water scarcity is expected to become

As we look to 2030, economic power will continue to shift away from

Looking forward, disruption is the overarching trend. Canadian

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iii

This report is intended to help readers understand the disruptive forces

As an investment manager and steward of clients’ assets, we believe that the

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. iv

• We produced this report to help Canadian businesses and investors understand

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Over the next decade, the world is facing

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 2

think tanks, non-profits, consulting firms, academic institutions, and other

Organization of the Report

The trends identified in this report will impact various areas of a

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 3

Questions for Business Professionals

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 4

• Canada’s population is growing, its inhabitants are aging, and immigration

• These changes present great opportunities. Business leaders would be

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca.

1 United Nations, World Population Projected to Reach 9.8 Billion in 2050.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 6

In 2016, seniors outnumbered children aged 14 years and younger for

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 7

in decline, Canada is actively encouraging immigration to fuel economic

: to meet its workforce

National Immigration Centre | conferenceboard.ca/NIC | @ImmigrationCBoC

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

11 European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, Global Trends to 2030.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 8

If current immigration levels continue, nearly half of Canada’s population

Questions for Businesses and Investors

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

12 Statistics Canada, A Look at Immigration, Ethnocultural Diversity and Languages.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 9

• As a result of increasing urbanization, rural communities may find it increasingly

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Growing Urban Populations

Reduced Service Provisions in

1 Statistics Canada, Canada Goes Urban.

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challenges replacing older workers when they retire.5 Despite their

An Increasing Need for Infrastructure

5 Strengthening Rural Canada, Challenges.

Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 12

The Growth of “Smart Cities”

Smart Open Smart Smart Smart grid/

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

10 Hamblen, Just What IS a Smart City?