Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018 5feb18

Global Economic Outlook 2018
February 2018
1 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Bart van Ark
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist and EVP Strategy, is The

Conference Board’s primary spokesperson on the economy
and leads a global team of economists in New York,
Brussels and Beijing, who produce a portfolio of widely
watched economic indicators and growth forecasts, as well
as in-depth global economic research. He oversees five of
The Conference Board’s expertise centers, including Global
Economy, Labor Markets, Consumer Dynamics, Innovation
and Productivity, and Digital Transformation.
Van Ark is an expert in international comparative studies of economic
performance, productivity and innovation. He has extensively published in
leading national and international journals. He is also frequently featured in
major international business media, including Bloomberg, CNBC, the
Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.

About The Conference Board

What is The Conference Board?
 The Conference Board is a global, independent business-

membership and research association, started in 1916, working in
the public interest.
 Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations
with the practical knowledge they need to improve their
performance and better serve society.
 Our membership includes about 1,000 companies in both the
advanced and the emerging markets of the world.
 Objective economic data and analyses that help business and
policy leaders make sense of their operating environments

Our Centers of Expertise

To help business leaders understand the economic and
business environment, different time perspectives are
required
Short-Term Forecasts Global Outlook Research
 Short-term (6-18  Medium-term (2-10  Labor Markets
months) forecast years)  Consumer Markets
 Monitors business  Focus on sources of  Innovation and
cycles per country economic growth, Productivity
 Identify up- and productivity, and
technological  Digital Transformation
downturns
innovation  China Center
 Based on coincident
and leading economic  Country & sector focus  Gulf Center
indicators on competitiveness
 Scenario approach
 Helps with timing of  Helps to decide where
investments in plant, to make investments
people, products and how to improve
business operations

Global Economic Outlook 2018
About The Conference Board
It’s not about how full or empty the glass is

– but rather what you fill it with

Shocks, trend and disruptions determine the outlook
THE IMMEDIATE Shocks
THE LONG-TERM Trend
THE IMPORTANT Disruptions
Business leaders and policy makers need to pay attention to all three !

The Immediate

2017 has created strong momentum to support buoyant
global growth in 2018
 2017 will end up at 3.2% global growth – compared to our 2.8% projection a
year ago
 2018 projection currently at 3.3% with significant upside potential
 Energy and commodity prices are recovering from a major slump
 Strong consumer confidence and global consumer growth
 Healthy recovery in Europe and even stronger numbers for Q4
 High business confidence in United States leading to a pickup in
investment, supported by tax plan
 Stimulus-related growth bonus for China only slowly wearing off
 Stabilization of US dollar with little sign of appreciation
 Long term yields beginning to strengthen
 Even productivity slowdown shows some signs of bottoming out
 All in all: pretty synchronized strengthening and low recession risk

As global economy strengthens, economic policy
uncertainty eases and business confidence strengthens
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Global, US and EU Business Confidence, OECD, US and Euro Area
(12-month average) (long-term average = 100, Jan 2008 – Nov 2017)
January ’18
(Global to December ’17)
Sources: www.PolicyUncertainty.com and Baker, Bloom and Davis Sources: OECD (2019), The Conference Board.
(2016), The Conference Board.

Global Leading Economic Index provides strong signal for
an upward swing in GDP growth
Annual Growth (%) Global LEI Global GDP
12
-4
-8
-12
-16
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Note: Shaded areas represent growth cycle chronologies derived from the de-trended Global CEI; determined by The Conference
Board using Bry-Boschan (1971) algorithm.
Source: The Conference Board

Expansionary business cycles are strongly synchronized
across US, Euro Area and China
Percent
Source: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, GDP growth, 2017 & 2018, %
Note: GDP growth for select countries with significant ICT production and trade (China, US and Japan) are revised upward to reflect ICT price declines.
*Europe includes all current European Union 28 members as well as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway.
**Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan.
***Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Europe include projections for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Turkey.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018, preliminary February 2018 update.

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, GDP growth, 2018 (February
‘18 compared to November ‘17 projection)
Note: GDP growth for select countries with significant ICT production and trade (China, US and Japan) are revised upward to reflect ICT price declines.
*Europe includes all current European Union 28 members as well as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway.
**Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan.
***Russia, Central Asia, and Southeast Europe include projections for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Turkey.

Accelerated contribution from mature economies expected
to wane towards the second half of 2018

China’s Economic Growth – The Long Soft Fall
Official GDP Data, vs. TCB Estimates & Projections
China Annual Real GDP Growth, %Y/Y

16%  TCB GDP series suggest an
TCB Projections upward bias in official series:
NBS
14%
TCB
 For industry: production series
based on produced quantities
12% with multi-level and multi-year
pricing and using input-output
table weights
10%
 For non-material services:
assume more modest
8%
productivity improvements (1% in
1980s and 2% since 1990s)
6%
2018
3.9%
 TCB GDP series for China,
suggest growth slowdown
4%
started abruptly in 2011, now
around four percent, vs. NBS
2% 2018-22
3.8%
2023-27 growth of around seven
3.3%
percent
0%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025  Moving forward, we expect
Source: NBS, The Conference Board Chinese GDP growth to
continue to slow

Is there change in the air? A rapidly falling dollar, rising
yields and a possible halt to a strong equity market
Percent Index, Jan-4-16=100

1.7 145
Ten-year treasury less two-year treasury (left side)
1.6 140
S&P 500 (right side)
1.5 Wall Street Journal Dollar Index (right side) 135
1.4
130
1.3
125
1.2
1.1 120
1.0 115
0.9
110
0.8 1/31/2017
105
0.7
100
0.6
0.5 95
0.4 90
Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18
Sources: S&P, WSJ, CME Group

The downside risks mostly have a low probability but high
impact – but the trend may well see an upside
 Significant probability (>25%) – limited impact risks:

 Acceleration in inflation and wages causing faster central bank responses, with those
not responding fast enough being overexposed to liquidity
 Low probability (<25%) – high impact risks:
 Major financial market disruptions (> 10% correction), e.g. because of crypto
currency disruption, tech discounts, disruptive capital flows or flight to safety
 China clamp down on capital outflows triggering a global confidence crisis
 Geo-political wild cards: North Korea, Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, major trade
disruption (NAFTA), major political disruption in US or Europe (Germany?). Less
than 25% that one of those will happen …?
 Meanwhile the upside for 2018 (more than 3.5%) relative to the trend
(< 3%) becomes more visible:
 U.S. tax plan could have a bigger impact on investment than anticipated and spill
over positively to rest of global economy
 Digitization is at tipping point and productivity effects are kicking in more broadly

The Long-Term

The medium-term growth projections depend on global
labor supply (slowing) and productivity (still slow)
 Trend:
 Ongoing modest growth (around 3 percent) -
well below the 3.5 to 4 percent growth of two Shocks
pre-crisis decades
 Demand-side constraints remain challenging:
– Long-term demand (consumption and
investment) determined by unfavorable Trend
demographics
– Persistent low inflation and low nominal
interest rates Disruptions
– Population aging and impact on national debt
 Supply side constraints:
– Slow growth of labor supply creates challenges on cost side and raises premium
on skill
– Weak productivity growth due to slow innovation and delayed impact of digitization

Demographic change is major source of slowdown in labor
supply growth – especially in mature economies
Cumulative growth rate of the working age population (net of migration), 2000-2015 and 2015-2030 (log changes)
Sources: United Nations World Population Prospects (2017 revision); The Conference Board

Productivity growth has dramatically slowed down across the
world, and projected improvements look small
Total Factor Productivity Growth, smoothed trend lines, 1891-2016 and projections to 2017-27
Sources: Sources: Bergeaud, Cette and Lecat, Banque de France; The Conference Board Total Economy Database, November 2017; The
Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018.

About The Conference Board GEO model
 Projections of GDP for 2018-2022 and 2023-2027

 Model uses a supply side-based growth accounting framework
which measures supply side contributions of labor, capital and
productivity
 Trend growth is a proxy for potential output growth, which
represents the level of output an economy can produce in a
noninflationary way, given the size of its labor force and its potential
to invest in and create technological progress
 Labor quantity is projected, and for labor quality, capital and
productivity we estimate trends based on a regression approach
 We adjust the medium term projections (2018-2022) for short-term
deviations from the trend growth because of output gaps (either
positive or negative)
Qualitative growth sources have strongly weakened since
the global recession. Can it recover?
Decomposition of sources of output growth in contributions from quantitative growth
sources and qualitative growth sources, 1996-2027
5%
Qualitative
7
Qualitative growth
growth sources 13
10%
sources
11
12
24% 66
Quantitative 23
growth 59 7
sources
49
7 3 9
Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, November 2017; Global Economic Outlook 2018, November 2017

If the glass is better filled with qualitive sources, growth
becomes more sustainable, even if slower than before
Decomposition of sources of output growth in contributions from quantitative growth
sources and qualitative growth sources, 2018-2027
3.8 (100%) • 1/3rd of global growth comes

from qualitative sources
5%
Qualitative - Human capital
7
2.9 (100%) growth - Innovation and digital
sources 13 transformation
10%
- Productivity
11
12 1.8 (100%)
Quantitative • 50% of mature markets’
24% growth 66 growth comes from qualitative
23
sources growth sources, especially
59 7 talent growth and productivity
– talent shortages are critical
49
7 3 9
• Quantitative growth sources in
emerging markets underline
“catch up growth” potential –
skilled labor force should be
leverage to accelerate
qualitative growth
Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, November 2017; Global Economic Outlook 2018, November 2017

The Important

Disruptions can change the trend – towards faster or slower
growth?
 Disruptions:
 Inequality and lack of access to human Shocks
capital and other qualitative growth sources
 The challenges of climate change and
sustainability & transformation in energy
demand and supply Trend
 A change in the dynamics of global trade,
competitiveness and global value chains
 Digital transformation as a key disruptor of Disruptions
labor markets, the business landscape and
the role of governments to regulate

Global trade volumes have expanded dramatically over the
past 16 months
Growth rates of monthly world trade volume (exports + imports) and quarterly global GDP
Source: CPB, World Trsde Monitor, December 2017, The Conference Board

The pullback in trade from 2011-2014 has affected both
intermediates and final goods and services
The Contribution of Intermediates and Final Goods to Total Trade Value Growth, 1995-2014, %
Note: Contributions are obtained by weighting each component’s growth rate by its relative size in total trade
Source: The Conference Board calculations based on WIOD, University of Groningen,

Is the global trade recovery structural?
 Causes of trade slowdown since 2011:

 Global financial crisis impacted goods with high trade intensity most
 Slump in oil and commodity prices 2014-2015
 Consolidation in global supply chain following extraordinary fragmentation
of value chains in 1990s and 2000s
– Substitution of imports by domestic goods and services in emerging markets
– Convergence of labor costs and increased risks of differentiation
– Technological advances promote reshoring and near-shoring
– Correction for overshooting of fragmentation since 1990s
 Is the current trade recovery sustainable?
 Sustained global growth will definitely support global trade
 While still much potential for global value chains, it’s likely less intense
 Increased protectionism can become the bigger threat

The productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy
Labor productivity growth and contributions from digital- producing and –using sectors, in %
Note: “Most intensive ICT-using industries” refer to the top half of the industries with the highest share of value of ICT investment plus
purchases ICT services as a percentage of “synthetic output” (which is value added at industry level plus the intermediate use of ICT
services ). Least intensive ICT-using sectors refer to the bottom half of industries in terms of ICT intensity.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Eurostat; The Conference Board

Productivity measurement: “Lies, damned lies and
statistics”?
 Within the boundaries of how we define GDP:
 New products and services are never measured well. It MAY be happening faster,
but positive and negative effects are offsetting each other
 The measured price declines of ICT goods and services have slowed more than
seems reasonable, understating the pace of investment in the New Digital
Economy …
 … but most countries are net importers of ICT making it a wash for GDP (except
US, Japan, China and some smaller specialized economies such Ireland, Finland,
South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore)
 Business spending on intangible assets, such as R&D, design, organizational
innovations, marketing and branding is largely ignored as a productive asset, but
how big is the ROI?
 Outside the boundaries of how we define GDP:
 Consumer surplus – what is new? Is it bigger than it used to be?
 Free content – should we value it and how?
 The (real) value of production vis-a-vis the utility we derive from it: those are NOT
one and the same thing

The shift from investment in ICT assets to spending on ICT
services happened at different times and speeds
Computer services and ICT investment as a % of GDP
UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eurostat; German Statistical Authority; EUKLEMS; The Conference Board

How will the transition from the installation to the
deployment phase proceed?
• Creative destruction
• Exploration of new markets
Installation • Battle of new paradigm with the old
phase
• Supply “push”
• Growth confided to small sectors
Frenzy period – sometimes followed by crisis
• Creative construction
• Consolidation & expansion of new markets
Deployment
• Widespread acceptance
phase
• Demand “pull”
• Wide benefits for the economy
Source: based on Carlota Perez, Technological Revolution and Financial Capital. The Dynamics of Bubbles and
Golden Ages, (Cheltenham, United Kingdom, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited), 2002

CEO Challenge Survey highlights the digital
challenges organizations face
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly agree Somewhat agree
Source: The Conference Board CEO Challenge 2017

Not much confidence among CEOs in leadership
and employees’ digital skills
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly agree Somewhat agree
Source: The Conference Board CEO Challenge 2017

Business Leaders are Increasingly Focused on the Need
to Build Strong Innovation Cultures

The Conference Board C-Suite Challenge
 In 2018 expanded survey to include other C-
Suite Executives (21 functional titles, including
CFO, CHRO and CMO) including 1000+
respondents
 No longer limited to just CEOs—allows us to
2017 • CEO
Challenge
compare functional responses and perspectives

 Greater granularity and data breakouts
 Retaining survey structure of 6 core challenges 2018 • C-Suite
Challenge
– Human Capital
– Customer Relationships & Corporate Brand and Reputation
– Operational Excellence
– Regulation and Risk
– Innovation and Digitalization
– Sustainability
 In addition respondents were asked to select the five most important hot
button issues —more immediate and tactical events and situations that CEOs
believe will require much of their attention in the coming year

C-SUITE CHALLENGE 2018
Immediate concerns of CEOs are around disruption
and lack of talent and leaderships
Source: The Conference Board C-Suite Challenge, 2018

C-SUITE CHALLENGE 2018
An Emphasis on Innovation Culture Building (Global CEOs, n=549)
Global top five strategies to meet the challenges in six key business areas
Customer
relationships/ Operational
Human capital
Corporate brand and
Sustainability Innovation Regulation and risk
excellence
reputation
Communicate effectively Create a culture of

from all levels (up, down, Incorporate sustainability innovation that encourages Strengthen internal
Enhance quality of Improve our organizational
1 and across); communicate
products/services
goals into corporate cooperation across
agility/flexibility
regulatory compliance
consistently and strategic objectives functions and business units processes
transparently and promotes risk taking
Ensure sustainability is Expand innovation

Seek better alignment
Enhance effectiveness of part of the corporate brand ecosystem: by engaging in
Engage personally with key between strategy, Improve our organizational
2 the senior management
customers/clients
identity and the strategic alliances with
objectives, and agility/flexibility
team commercial value customers, suppliers, and/or
organizational capabilities
proposition other business partners
Adopt a user-centric design

Develop a more outward- Incorporate sustainability approach to innovation to Explicitly integrate long-term
Provide employee training Invest more in new
3 and development
looking, customer-centric into company risk develop deeper
technologies
risk recognition into strategic
culture management strategy understanding of customer planning
need
Engage with stakeholders
to ensure outside-in
perspective in market As part of long-term vision,
Encourage an open, safe, Create more product/service Raise employee Incorporate cyber risks into
development decisions emphasize creativity and/or
4 and transparent speak-up customization through digital
and to balance short-term innovation as a corporate
engagement to drive existing risk management
culture technologies productivity and governance processes
performance pressures value or principle
with long-term
sustainability goals
Emphasize sustainability Update contingency plans
Improve performance Communicate corporate Develop managers and Foster process of continual
values in talent recruiting and procedures for crises
5 management processes values to customers and key
and leadership
leaders to promote idea improvement (lean Six
(e.g., geographical, political,
and accountability stakeholders sharing in teams Sigma, etc.)
development relocation of employees)

The Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

So is the global growth glass half full or half empty?
 The glass half empty argument:

 Still less than convincing recovery in global investment
 Risks of a slowdown in consumption growth, including in China
 Limited contribution of global trade and overall globalization
 Slower medium-term growth path in emerging markets, including China
 Substantive list of short-term risks that can mess up any recovery.
 It will be half full if sufficiently filled with qualitative growth:
 Composition of growth is changing towards greater investment in
machinery & equipment, digital assets, etc.
 A possible productivity upside from payoff of efforts to digitally transform
business models
 Overall, a larger contribution from qualitative growth sources (talent,
digitization and productivity)

The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018
Members only: https://www.conference- Open access: https://www.conference-

board.org/economic-outlook-2018/ board.org/data/globaloutlook/
Global United States
Emerging Markets Europe

For data and chart tool: click here Global Economic Outlook - Charts & Tables

Appendix
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook

About The Conference Board GEO model
 Projections of GDP for 2018-2022 and 2023-2027

 Model uses a supply side-based growth accounting framework
which measures supply side contributions of labor, capital and
productivity
 Trend growth is a proxy for potential output growth, which
represents the level of output an economy can produce in a
noninflationary way, given the size of its labor force and its
potential to invest in and create technological progress
 Labor quantity is projected, and for labor quality, capital and
productivity we estimate trends based on a regression approach
 We adjust the medium term projections (2018-2022) for short-term
deviations from the trend growth because of output gaps (either
positive or negative)
About the labor equation
(1) Labor quantity:

 ILO labor force and employment estimates and projections
(2) Labor quality:
 Workforce numbers are extrapolated using data on projections
of population by educational attainment from other sources
 Wage rates by educational attainment are projected using a
regression approach based on projections of average years of
schooling and their implied returns to schooling

About the two capital equations
(1) Savings rate, based on:

 Real exchange rate  Per capita GDP
 Dependency rates (old &  Lagged GDP growth
young)
 Service share in GDP
(2) Capital services, based on:

 Savings rate  Energy growth
 Depreciation rate  Capital deepening
 Inflation (standard deviation)  Interest rates
 Wage growth  Economic globalization

About the TFP equation
 Labor productivity level relative to the US in recent history

 Corruption
 R&D expenditure
 Human Development Index (average years of schooling and life
expectancy)
 ICT goods capital deepening
 Real exchange rates
 Lagged TFP growth

What makes us stand out from other models?
 Alternative estimates
Chinese Annual GDP Growth, %Y/Y
for Chinese growth 16%
NBS
 Incorporation of ICT 14%
TCB
investment and 12%
alternative ICT prices 10%
– Adjusted GDP growth 8%
for three major ICT 6%
producers (US, China
4%
and Japan)
2%
 Estimates of labor
composition or labor 0%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
quality Sources: National Bureau of Statistics; The Conference Board

The results: Global growth is projected to weaken in the
long-term
Average annual real GDP growth, % change
Notes: GDP growth is revised upward in order to reflect faster declines in alternative ICT prices for countries with significant ICT production
and trade, including Japan, the United States, and China; Growth rates for China reflect The Conference Board's own estimates.
*Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan.
**Russia, Central Asia and Southeast Europe include projections for Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Turkey.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2018 (Preliminary version)


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Global Economic Outlook 2018

1 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Bart van Ark, Chief Economist and EVP Strategy, is The

2 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

3 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

 The Conference Board is a global, independent business-

4 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

5 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

6 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

About The Conference Board

It’s not about how full or empty the glass is

7 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

THE IMMEDIATE Shocks

THE LONG-TERM Trend

THE IMPORTANT Disruptions

8 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

9 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

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Source: The Conference Board

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14 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

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16 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

China Annual Real GDP Growth, %Y/Y

17 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Percent Index, Jan-4-16=100

Sources: S&P, WSJ, CME Group

18 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

 Significant probability (>25%) – limited impact risks:

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 Projections of GDP for 2018-2022 and 2023-2027

25 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

3.8 (100%) • 1/3rd of global growth comes

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28 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

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30 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

 Causes of trade slowdown since 2011:

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UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY

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Frenzy period – sometimes followed by crisis

35 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly agree Somewhat agree

Source: The Conference Board CEO Challenge 2017

36 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly agree Somewhat agree

Source: The Conference Board CEO Challenge 2017

37 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

38 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

compare functional responses and perspectives

39 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org

Source: The Conference Board C-Suite Challenge, 2018

40 © 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. | www.conferenceboard.org