Vision 2025 score

The writer is dean, Air University School of Management, and is associated with the Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.

ONE thing that the government-in-waiting can learn from the previous rulers is to exercise
caution in making promises and setting targets as the vibrant electronic media is quick to show
clips of promises made. The performance of the previous government against the targets set in
Vision 2025 is shown here as an illustration of how the PTI’s performance can be evaluated five
years hence.

Vision 2025 was rolled out by PML-N government in early 2014. The 12-year vision, which has
seven pillars, sets several quantitative targets under each pillar. The PML-N government had
four and a half years to work towards the targets. Assuming progress at a linear rate, over a third
of the goals should have been met by the end of the PML-N’s tenure in May 2018. Allowing for
the take-off period, let us reduce the progress required to 30 per cent and examine performance
against this yardstick.

The Vision envisages a literacy rate of 90pc and a primary school enrolment rate of 100pc by
2025. The Economic Survey showed a literacy rate of 60pc in June 2013 at the beginning of the
PML-N’s tenure. The latest survey reports the literacy rate at 58pc in June 2016. The survey also
shows a decline of three percentage points in gross enrolment from June 2013. The figures for
June 2018, when available, will at best show that the losses have been recouped. Thus progress
towards achieving targets of literacy and enrolment was at best zero during the PML-N’s tenure
— and remember ‘human capital’ is the first pillar of Vision 2025.

The Vision seeks to double electricity generation capacity to 42,000 megawatts by 2025. With
substantial addition during the last five years, this seems possible, but at what cost to the
exchequer and the environment? The Vision commits to reducing generation costs by 25pc
through improving the generation mix, ie increase in share of power from hydro and renewable
resources.

There are lessons to draw from not meeting goals.

By June 2013, as reported in the latest survey, the installed generation capacity was: thermal
power 15,289 MW and the rest of the sources (hydro, nuclear and renewable) 7,523 MW. This
yields a generation mix of 67:33 (67pc being thermal). By February 2018, the generation mix
was still 67:33 (with 19,816 MW coming from thermal sources and 9,757 MW from the rest of
the sources). The generation mix remained static but electricity tariffs increased significantly.
This shows that the generation cost has increased, going against the target of achieving a
decrease.

As against the recently advertised claim of 11,000 MW of additional generation, the Economic
Survey 2017-18 reports an addition of 6,761 MW in installed generation capacity during the
PML-N’s tenure. The survey mentions that projects of over 12,000 MW have been initiated but
maintains a studied silence on the date of their completion.
The plan envisages that Pakistan will be among the 25 largest economies by 2025 leading to an
upper- and middle-income status for its citizens. According to the World Bank’s classification of
countries in keeping with income levels, Pakistan was among the low- to middle-income
countries at the start of the PML-N’s tenure and that status has not changed. As per the
International Monetary Fund’s ranking of countries based on GDP per capita (PPP basis)
Pakistan was ranked 135 out of 187 countries in 2017. So moving to the 25th rank on a per capita
basis is a far cry even in the distant future let alone by 2025.

The Vision envisages an increase in exports from $25 billion to $150bn annually — that is, an
increase of $125bn each year, or 500 pc, by 2025. The 30pc export target set in the Vision works
out to $56bn. Exports, which were $22.7bn during 11 months of 2017-18, may barely touch the
figure of $25bn when the figures for June 2018 are released. If the goal set out with regard to
exports in the Vision is to be achieved, exports in 2017-18 should be worth around $56bn instead
of just $25bn.

It is not possible to comment here on each and every target set in the Vision for want of space;
however, those who have kept abreast of the developments know well that not enough progress
has been made during the PML-N’s tenure to achieve the targets.

These include: increasing water storage capacity to 90 days of the required level, reducing
electricity distribution losses by 10pc, increasing the number of tourists to two million, tripling
labour and capital productivity, bringing down the numbers of food-insecure people from 60pc to
30pc, decreasing the incidence of diarrhoea, hepatitis, diabetes and heart disease by 50pc,
increasing female labour force participation by 21 percentage points, and providing clean
drinking water for all Pakistanis by 2025.

The writer is dean, Air University School of Management, and is associated with the Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.

7 PILLARS & 25 GOALS OF VISION 2025

Aug 13, 2014 | thaver

The Union of Small & Medium Enterprises (UNISAME) for the benefit of SME stakeholders is
reproducing below the text of Vision 2025.

PILLAR I -PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST- DEVELOPING HUMAN AND SOCIAL CAPITAL

1. Increase Primary school enrollment and completion rate to 100% & literacy rate to 90%.
2. Increase Higher Education coverage from 7% to 12 %, and increase number of PhD’s from
7,000 to 15,000.
3. Improve Primary and Secondary Gender Parity Index to 1, and increase female workforce
participation rate from 24% to 45%.
4. Increase proportion of population with access to improved sanitation from 48% to 90%.
5. Reduce infant mortality rate from 74 to less than 40 (per 1000 births) and reduce maternal
mortality rate from 276 to less than 140 (per 1000 births).
6. Reduce the incidence/prevalence of Hepatitis, Diahorrea, Diabetes and Heart Disease by 50%.
7. Pakistan will be World Champions in 2 sports and will win at least 25 medals in the Asian
games.
PILLAR II -ACHIEVING SUSTAINED, INDIGENOUS AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH
8. Become one of the largest 25 economies in the World, leading to Upper Middle Income
country status.
9. Reduce poverty level by half.
10. Increase annual Foreign Direct Investment from USD 600 million to over USD 15 billion.
11. Increase tax to GDP ratio from 9.8% to 18%.
PILLAR III -DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND
MODERNIZATION OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR
12. Place in the top 50th percentile for Political Stability (from bottom 1 percentile), No
Violence/Terrorism (from bottom 1 percentile), and Control of Corruption (from bottom 13th
percentile) as measured by the World Bank’s
Worldwide Governance Indicators.
PILLAR IV – ENERGY, WATER AND FOOD SECURITY
13. Energy: double power generation to 45,000 MW to provide uninterrupted and affordable
electricity, and increase electricity access from 67% to over 90% of the population.
14. Energy:
(a) reduce average cost per unit by over 25% by improving generation mix (15%) and reducing
distribution losses (10%);
(b) increase percentage of indigenous sources of power generation to over 50%;
(c) Address demand management by increasing usage of energy efficient appliances/products to
80%.
15. Water: increase storage capacity to 90 days, improve efficiency of usage in agriculture by
20%, and ensure access to clean drinking water for all Pakistanis.
16. Food: Reduce food insecure population from 60% to 30%.
PILLAR V -PRIVATE SECTOR AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP LED GROWTH
17. Rank in the top 50 countries on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Rankings.
18. Increase Diaspora investment (via remittances) in the private sector from USD 14 billion to
USD 40 billion.
19. Create at least 5 global Pakistani brands (having more than 50% salescoming from
consumers outside Pakistan), and make ‘Made in Pakistan’ a symbol of quality.
PILLAR VI -DEVELOPING A COMPETITIVE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY THROUGH
VALUE ADDITION
20. Join the ranks of the top 50 countries as measured by the World Economic Forum’s Global
Competitiveness Report.
21. Triple labor and capital productivity.
22. Improve Pakistan’s score on the World Bank Institute’s Knowledge Economy Index from 2.2
to 4.0, and increase internet penetration to over 50%.
23. Increase the number of tourist arrivals to 2 million.
PILLAR VII – MODERNIZING TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND GREATER
REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY
24. Increase road density from 32 km/100 km2 to 64 km/ 100 km2, and share of rail in transport
from 4% to 20%.
25. Increase annual exports from US$ 25 billion to US$ 150 billon.

Salient features and targets of Pakistan Vision 2025

Biggest Economy of the world from current 27th to 25th by 2025 and 18th by 2050:

The government needs to prioritize its targets, and in that process, it has to be realistic. For
instance, Pakistan has little chance to be the 18th biggest economy of the world in 2050 if it does
not grow by 9.5 percent annually in dollar terms (assuming rest of the world grows by 4 percent).
The fact is that in the past five years, the economy has virtually stagnated at the population
growth rate. However, to be the 25th biggest economy by 2025 is no big deal, as Pakistan
already is 27th in the ranking.

Reducing Poverty on Multi-Dimensional Index (MDI) from 49 percent to less than 20

percent by 2025:

The Vision 2025 is eyeing on reducing the poverty on multi-dimensional index from existing 49
percent to less than 20 percent by 2025. This requires Herculean efforts. The country’s track
record in reducing headcount/income poverty is relatively better than Multidimensional Poverty
Index (MPI) as it has invested very little in the people in terms of health, education and other
basic services access which form part of MPI. In the past few years, access to basic services has
declined in Pakistan.

Foreign direct investment growth from current $600 million to over $15 billion by 2025:

FDI may only increase dramatically if the following happen: a) return to normalcy in security
environment, with no acts of terrorism and militancy; b) substantial improvement in
infrastructure, especially energy, and c) an extended period of political stability.

Increase in foreign remittances from current $14 billion to $40 billion by 2025:

Among other inflows, it’s hard to continue on the high growth of remittances for long to reach
$40 billion in 2025 from $14 billion today, for the prospects of labour migration are less
favorable because of the slowdown in the advanced economies of the world. The Middle East
has been the primary source of growth in remittances but this region may not remain immune
from the slowdown in the world economy. Change in labour laws in the Gulf region can also hurt
this target.

Energy generation is targeted at 45,000MW by 2025:

Energy generation is targeted at 45,000MW by 2025-–the doubling of generation capacity will
require massive public investment of almost $30-35 billion. Also there will be no load shedding
in 2018 as gap in demand and supply will be filled by that time.

The Pakistan Vision 2025 aims at ensuring uninterrupted access to affordable and clean energy
for all sections of the population. The government has envisaged 10 goals under Vision 2025.