Statistics and probability, skipping and guessing.

By McKenzie & Madison

Random variables are where quantitative variables, and the value of X takes on a given
experiment. Random variables also give a numerical description of an outcome in a statistical
experiment. For example, the amount of sugar in a soda can or can deal with someone's height
or weight. As for a discrete random variable, that is where variables can only take a countable
number of values. Continuous random variables are any of the countless number of values in a
line interval. How these two compare is that discrete random variables are between 0 and 1.
The sum of all of the probabilities are also equal to one. As where continuous random variables
relate to time, length, position, etc.
Probability distributions are the probabilities to each distinct value. For example, setting
up a table for rolling a dice. You would get ⅙ on all 6 tries for the outcomes on the die. Like
getting a 5, that is a 1 in 6 chance. The key components are that they must all equal up to 1 or
end up with 100%.
Mean and standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a dataset relative to its
mean and the calculated square root of the variance. The mean in the mean and standard
deviation is the absolute deviations of a set of data that is about the data’s meaning. Normally
given by a sample size that the mean deviation is defined by. As where the method of finding
out (calculating) mean and standard deviation is taking the square root of the variance.
The expected value of a discrete random variable is the probability-weighted average of
all its possible values. This means that the expected value is what someone would expect to get
from a certain set of outcomes. It often has the highest probability of occuring. This can be
calculated by multiplying each of the possible outcomes by the likelihood that each outcome will
occur and then adding up all those values. For example, if the random variable was the number
obtained by rolling a fair 3-sided die, the expected value would be calculated by doing (1 x ⅓) +
(2 x ⅓) + (3 x ⅓) = 2.
A binomial experiment needs to satisfy five main conditions: has to have a fixed number
of trials, each trial has to be independent and identical, there are only two outcomes (success
and failure), for each individual trial, the probability of success is the same, and finally the goal
is to find the probability of the number of successes out of the total number of trials. An example
of a binomial experiment is flipping a coin. There are n trials each with two outcomes (heads or
tails). Success would be flipping a heads, and failure would be flipping a tails. The probability of
getting a success remains the same throughout the whole experiment. In a binomial experiment,
there are multiple variables that are used. These variables include n, p, q, and r. N in a binomial
experiment represents the number of trials in the experiment. P represents the probability of
success, while on the other hand, q represents the probability of failure. Finally, r represents the
number of successes in the experiment. Using the example above about flipping a coin, n would
vary based on the experiment because you can conduct as many trials as you want, such as
flipping a coin 10 or 20 times and recording your outcomes. P and q would both be ½ because
heads and tails are both equally likely in the experiment. Finally r would be the number of times
that you flipped heads, because it is the number of successes.
There are three ways to compute binomial probabilities: formula, calculator, and the
n!
table at the back of our statistics book. The formula is P (r) = r!(n−r)! · pr · q (n−r) . This formula
can be used for any binomial probability problem, therefore making it very useful. Another
method used to compute binomial probability is using a calculator. The formula for using a
calculator is Cn,r pr · q (n−r) . ​The benefit to using a calculator to find binomial probability is that it
can also be used with any problem, whereas the book can only be used up to n=20. With the
book, you need to know the variables n, r, and p. You then line up the correct numbers and it
gives you the binomial probability. Along with the methods to find binomial probability, there are
also additional properties that can be found. One of which is the mean of the data. The formula
to find the mean is μ =np​. ​This means that to find the mean, you multiply the total number of
trials by the probability of success. Another property that can be found is standard deviation of
the data. This can be found by σ = √npq. This means that you multiply the number of trials, the
probability of success, and the probability of failure all together and then take the square root of
that number.
You skipped class yesterday and walk into a 10 question multiple choice quiz today.
Each question has 5 choices and you must guess on all. What is the probability you get at least
4 correct? What is the probability you get exactly 7 correct?
Our scenario meets the criteria of a binomial experiment because there is a fixed
number of trials, which is a 10 because there are 10 questions. Each trial is also independent
and identical because one answer on the quiz does not affect the answer to another question.
Each question is also identical in what they are asking. Furthermore, there are only two
outcomes to each question, either getting the answer or getting the answer wrong. Also, the
probability of success in each trial is the same. You have exactly 5 choices for each question,
which is a ⅕ chance to get the question right.
For the calculations, we used the back of our book. For getting at least 4 right, there is a
.251 chance to get them right. We found this by going to the chart and going down 10 on the ‘n’
section, then went over to 4 on the ‘r’ section, then went over to the .40 in the ‘p’ section and
met up with the 4, and got .251. For getting 7 right, there is a .267 chance of getting them right.
We did this by going to the chart, going down 10 in the ‘n’ section. Then, we went down 7 in the
‘r’ section, then went over to the ‘p’ section and met those two up to get .267 as our final
answer.
My partner and I chose this method because it is a lot easier to use and we don't have to
calculate a ton of things to get a final answer.
When trying to get 7 answers correct out of 10, there is a .267 chance of getting them
right. Very slim chance. As for getting 4 out of 10 right, there is a .251 chance of getting them
right, also very slim, but not impossible.