The Nature of Mathematics

(These paragraphs are reprinted with permission from Everybody Counts: A

Report to the Nation on the Future of Mathematics Education. ©1989 by the
National Academy of Sciences. Courtesy of the National Academy Press,
Washington, D.C.)

Mathematics reveals hidden patterns that help us understand the world

around us. Now much more than arithmetic and geometry, mathematics
today is a diverse discipline that deals with data, measurements, and
observations from science; with inference, deduction, and proof; and with
mathematical models of natural phenomena, of human behavior, and of
social systems.

As a practical matter, mathematics is a science of pattern and order. Its

domain is not molecules or cells, but numbers, chance, form, algorithms,
and change. As a science of abstract objects, mathematics relies on logic
rather than on observation as its standard of truth, yet employs observation,
simulation, and even experimentation as means of discovering truth.

The special role of mathematics in education is a consequence of its

universal applicability. The results of mathematics--theorems and
theories--are both significant and useful; the best results are also elegant and
deep. Through its theorems, mathematics offers science both a foundation of
truth and a standard of certainty.

In addition to theorems and theories, mathematics offers distinctive modes

of thought which are both versatile and powerful, including modeling,
abstraction, optimization, logical analysis, inference from data, and use of
symbols. Experience with mathematical modes of thought builds
mathematical power--a capacity of mind of increasing value in this
technological age that enables one to read critically, to identify fallacies, to
detect bias, to assess risk, and to suggest alternatives. Mathematics
empowers us to understand better the information-laden world in which we
live.

During the first half of the twentieth century, mathematical growth was
stimulated primarily by the power of abstraction and deduction, climaxing
more than two centuries of effort to extract full benefit from the
mathematical principles of physical science formulated by Isaac Newton.
Now, as the century closes, the historic alliances of mathematics with
science are expanding rapidly; the highly developed legacy of classical
mathematical theory is being put to broad and often stunning use in a vast
mathematical landscape.

Several particular events triggered periods of explosive growth. The Second

World War forced development of many new and powerful methods of
applied mathematics. Postwar government investment in mathematics,
fueled by Sputnik, accelerated growth in both education and research. Then
the development of electronic computing moved mathematics toward an
algorithmic perspective even as it provided mathematicians with a powerful
tool for exploring patterns and testing conjectures.

At the end of the nineteenth century, the axiomatization of mathematics on a

foundation of logic and sets made possible grand theories of algebra,
analysis, and topology whose synthesis dominated mathematics research and
teaching for the first two thirds of the twentieth century. These traditional
areas have now been supplemented by major developments in other
mathematical sciences--in number theory, logic, statistics, operations
research, probability, computation, geometry, and combinatorics.

In each of these subdisciplines, applications parallel theory. Even the most

esoteric and abstract parts of mathematics--number theory and logic, for
example--are now used routinely in applications (for example, in computer
science and cryptography). Fifty years ago, the leading British
mathematician G.H. Hardy could boast that number theory was the most
pure and least useful part of mathematics. Today, Hardy's mathematics is
studied as an essential prerequisite to many applications, including control
of automated systems, data transmission from remote satellites, protection of
financial records, and efficient algorithms for computation.

In 1960, at a time when theoretical physics was the central jewel in the
crown of applied mathematics, Eugene Wigner wrote about the
``unreasonable effectiveness'' of mathematics in the natural sciences: ``The
miracle of the appropriateness of the language of mathematics for the
formulation of the laws of physics is a wonderful gift which we neither
understand nor deserve.'' Theoretical physics has continued to adopt (and
occasionally invent) increasingly abstract mathematical models as the
foundation for current theories. For example, Lie groups and gauge
theories--exotic expressions of symmetry--are fundamental tools in the
physicist's search for a unified theory of force.
During this same period, however, striking applications of mathematics have
emerged across the entire landscape of natural, behavioral, and social
sciences. All advances in design, control, and efficiency of modern airliners
depend on sophisticated mathematical models that simulate performance
before prototypes are built. From medical technology (CAT scanners) to
economic planning (input/output models of economic behavior), from
genetics (decoding of DNA) to geology (locating oil reserves), mathematics
has made an indelible imprint on every part of modern science, even as
science itself has stimulated the growth of many branches of mathematics.

Applications of one part of mathematics to another--of geometry to analysis,

of probability to number theory--provide renewed evidence of the
fundamental unity of mathematics. Despite frequent connections among
problems in science and mathematics, the constant discovery of new
alliances retains a surprising degree of unpredictability and serendipity.
Whether planned or unplanned, the cross-fertilization between science and
mathematics in problems, theories, and concepts has rarely been greater than
it is now, in this last quarter of the twentieth century.

There are creative tensions in mathematics between

beauty and utility, abstraction and application,
between a search for unity and a desire to treat
phenomena comprehensively.Keith Devlin has
called mathematics a "science of patterns", which ties
in with the ideas of beauty, abstraction and the search
for unity.He has also said that "mathematics makes
the invisible visible",referring to representation, modeling
and application of mathematics.For example, drawing a bar
graph makes statistical information visible.

Here is a quote from the Foreword to the Japanese

Edition of an 11th grade text [Kodaira 1991]:

Mathematics was originally linked with science and technology;

however, it gradually became independent of science and technology,
and present-day mathematicians think freely about virtually
everything possible.Therefore, mathematics is said to be
a free creation of the human spirit.

Special characteristics of mathematics are the clarity and

precision of definitions, including usuage of words in ways
that differ from their use in everyday language, and
the certainty of mathematical truth based
on deductive mathematical reasoning.Given what Wigner
call the "unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics",
all students should learn the basic nature of mathematics
and mathematical reasoning and its use in organizing
and modeling natural phenomena.

In the practice of mathematics, typically some concepts

and statements are taken as given.They may be applied
or serve as the foundation for the development of
further mathematics.Additional concepts can be defined
carefully in terms of the given ones.Conjectures
can be developed on the basis of experience with
examples.Further statements can be proved deductively
based on what has been assumed.This process has been
repeated extensively, resulting in mathematics having its
own intricate structure, with concepts and areas of
specialization that require considerable time and study to grasp.
Moreover mathematics is interconnected in many interesting ways.

It may be useful [Swafford 1997] to think of students learning

mathematics along the lines of a generalized structure of reasoning
based on the van Hiele levels developed in the 1950s
[Van Hiele 1986]: (1)recognition, (2)analysis,
(3)informal deduction, (4)formal deduction, (5) axiomatics.

In early grades, students learn the basic language including

the critical logical words "and", "or", "not", "there is/are",
"for some", "for every", "for all".
They see multidigit numbers being built from single digit numbers.
They match the trajectory of a kicked ball with the concept of line.
They recognize patterns in sequences of numbers and shapes.

In middle grades students develop habits of reasoning "locally",

clarifying the assumptions of a particular problems and
examining the steps involved in the solution to determine
correctness.For example, one of us recently observed a
fifth grade teacher asking her students for the definition
of polygon.They knew, for example that triangles, squares
and hexagons were polygons.It was exciting to see the students
wrestling with abstraction, differentiating polygons from circles,
and finally focusing on polygons as figures with sides.

By the end of high school, students should be aware

of the global deductive nature of axiomatic mathematics.
They should be familiar with the connections
between our number systems and algebra, between
algebra and geometry.They should be comfortable
reasoning with short sequences of statements,
with Venn diagrams and other visual and diagrammatic methods.
They should have experience with modeling, recognizing for
example that certain natural phenomena
obey linear relationships and that linear relationships
make prediction so easy that we try to approximate
other more complicated phenomena by linear ones.
It is important both to understand how algebraic relationships
can describe particular problems and to understand the
power derived by working abstractly with the mathematics
which applies to many different situations.

References
Kodaira, Kunihiko editor; Nagata, Hiromi translator; Fowler, George
translation editor.(1991). Basic Analysis Japanese Grade 11,
Mathematical World, Volume 11.American Mathematical Society,
The University of Chicago School Mathematics Project.

Hoffer, A. (1983). Van Hiele-based Research.In R.Lesh and M. Laudau,

Acquisition of Mathematics Concepts and Processes.Academic Press,
New York, NY.

Swafford, Jones, and Thornton. (1997).Increased

Knowledge in Geometry and Instructional Practice,
Journal of Research in Mathematics Education, vol. 28, #4, p. 467-483.

Van Hiele. (1986). Structure and Insight. Academic Press, New York, NY.

The Nature of Mathematics

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It is a common belief that nature can be understood using mathematics. Many scientists have
discovered mathematical concepts and patterns in nature for example from sunflowers to
snowflakes to hurricanes and galaxies.
Symmetry
A great example of mathematical concepts in nature is symmetry which is found in abundance in
the natural world. A snowflake exhibits a six-fold radial symmetry with unique and identical
patterns on each arm. Each snowflake is different as when they fall from the sky, each experiences
its own unique atmospheric conditions such as humidity and wind, which ultimately affect how
the crystals on the snowflake forms. Due to each arm of the snowflake experiencing the same
environmental conditions, it crystallises in the exact same way, producing a symmetrical
snowflake.
Honeycombs are an example of wallpaper symmetry. It is believed by mathematicians that bees
build their honeycombs in a hexagonal pattern as it is the best shape for storing the greatest
amount of honey while using the least amount of wax to create the structure.
Orb spiders build their webs using radial symmetry. They create near-perfect circular webs that
have near-equal-distanced radial supports coming out of the middle and a spiral that is woven to
catch prey. Scientists believe that these spiders build their webs in this way for strength and
to evenly distribute the force of impact when a fly or other prey becomes entangled in the web.
Symmetry in nature appears to have multiple benefits.
The Fibonacci Sequence
There is a simple sequence of numbers that appears in many places in nature called the Fibonacci
sequence. Named after Leonardo of Pisa, also known as Fibonacci. This sequence of
numbers involves starting at 0 then 1 and adding the previous two number together to get the
next digit in the sequence, ultimately equating to 0 1 1 2 5 8 13 21 34 and so on.
The Fibonacci Spiral

The pattern in sunflower seeds and many other flowers are arranged in a Fibonacci spiral which
keeps the seeds uniformly distributed regardless of the size of the seeds. “A Fibonacci spiral is a
series of connected quarter-circles drawn inside an array of squares with Fibonacci numbers for
dimensions. The squares fit perfectly together because of the nature of the sequence, where the
next number is equal to the sum of the two before it.” (Live Science, 2017) – see diagram opposite.
The spirals pack florets as tight as can be, maximising their ability to gather sunlight for the plant.

The Fibonacci spiral can be found in many

different places in nature for example the spiral is very evident in the chambers of a nautilus
shell. The spiral occurs as the shell grows outwards and tries to maintain its proportional shape.
The benefit of the nautilus’s growth pattern allows it to maintain its shape throughout its entire
life.
In some plants, the leaves appear to be arranged in a Fibonacci spiral. The reason behind the
staggered leaves in a spiral shape is to maximise the space each leaf has and to ensure the greatest
absorption of sunlight for the plant’s growth.
Therefore, maths is everywhere in nature and has a specific purpose, either to ensure a snowflake
is strong enough, a plant receives optimum conditions or even for structural purposes to save
waste. Nature is spectacular in the way it uses mathematical concepts to create its own benefits.
References
Fibonacci in Nature. 2017. Fibonacci in Nature. [ONLINE] Available
at:http://jwilson.coe.uga.edu/emat6680/parveen/fib_nature.htm. [Accessed 31 October 2017].
 Live Science. 2017. What is the Fibonacci Sequence?. [ONLINE] Available
at: https://www.livescience.com/37470-fibonacci-sequence.html. [Accessed 31 October 2017].
Planet Dolan | Obscure Facts About Life. 2017. 15 Beautiful Examples of Mathematics in Nature
– Page 2 – Planet Dolan | Obscure Facts About Life. [ONLINE] Available
at: http://www.planetdolan.com/15-beautiful-examples-of-mathematics-in-nature/2/. [Accessed 31
October 2017].
Science | AAAS. 2017. ScienceShot: Sunflowers Do the Math | Science | AAAS. [ONLINE]
Available at:http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/06/scienceshot-sunflowers-do-math.
[Accessed 31 October 2017].
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This entry was posted in 2 Prof. Knowledge & Understanding , 2.1
Curriculum, Discovering Maths, edushare and tagged Nature on October 31,
2017.

What Are Patterns?

All around us, we see a great diversity of living things, from the microscopic to the gigantic,
from the simple to the complex, from bright colors to dull ones. One of the most intriguing
things we see in nature is patterns. We tend to think of patterns as sequences or designs
that are orderly and that repeat. But we can also think of patterns as anything that is not
random.
For example, we recognize the spots on a giraffe as a pattern, but they're not regular, nor
are any of the spots the same size or shape. However, other patterns are orderly as is seen
in the symmetry of a sea star or a snowflake.

Types of Patterns: Symmetry

Biologists, mathematicians, chemists, physicists, artists, and many others study and
appreciate patterns. Let's take a look at some of the different types of patterns to help you
appreciate them as well.
Symmetry is when different sides of something are alike. These reflections may be mirror
images with only two sides, like the two sides of our bodies; they may be symmetrical on
several sides, like the inside of an apple sliced in half; or they might be symmetrical on all
sides, like the different faces of a cube.
We understand symmetry quite well in living organisms because it is a function of their
environment. In order to balance, we need to have symmetrical body structure so we don't
fall over from imbalanced weight. What we don't understand very well is symmetry in
non-living things. Snowflakes have six-fold symmetry but it is unclear why this occurs.
Likewise, the splash from a water droplet is also symmetrical, and while beautiful it is still
somewhat of a mystery.

Fractals & Spirals

Fractals are the 'never-ending' patterns that repeat indefinitely as the pattern is iterated on
an infinitely smaller scale. We see this type of pattern in trees, rivers, mountains, shells,
clouds, leaves, lightning, and more.
Spirals are another common pattern in nature that we see more often in living things. Think
of the horns of a sheep, the shell of a nautilus, and the placement of leaves around a stem.
A special type of spiral, the logarithmic spiral, is one that gets smaller as it goes. We see
this pattern in hurricanes, galaxies, and some seashells.

Fibonacci Patterns & Tessellations

You may have heard of the Fibonacci sequence, which is the sequence of numbers that
goes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21. . . and so on. Each number is the sum of the two numbers
before it; for example 1 + 1 = 2; 1 + 2 = 3; 3 + 5 = 8; etc.

What are exponential growth models?

Calculus Applications of Definite Integrals Exponential Growth and Decay
Models

1 Answer
Paul Belliveau
Aug 29, 2014

An exponential growth model describes what happens when you keep

multiplying by the same number over and over again. It has many
applications, particularly in the life sciences and in economics.

A simple exponential growth model would be a population that doubled

every year. For example,

y=A(2)x

where A is the initial population, x is the time in years, and y is the

population after xnumber of years. Having x in the exponent causes
the initial value ( A) to keep doubling as x increases.

That's an Algebra explanation, though, and this is being asked for a

Calculus course. So now I have to skip ahead.
When you're dealing with things that grow exponentially, the
number e (2.71828...) shows up, similar to how π shows up whenever
you talk about circles and trigonometry. Here's why, using some of the
techniques you should have learned in your Calculus course.

Exponential models describe situations where the rate of change of

some thing is directly proportional to how much of that thing there is.

In math terms:

dydt=ky

where dydt is the rate of change in an instant, y is the amount of

the thing we're talking about at that instant, and k is the constant of
proportionality.

This can be solved in the given terms to produce a general exponential

growth/decay model.

We can solve the differential equation by first separating the variables.

dydt=ky

Multiply both sides by dt and divide both sides by y.

dyy=kdt
Then we integrate both sides.

∫dyy=∫kdt

Hopefully, you've learned how to anti-derive dyy and kdt.

ln|y|=kt+C

2 quick thoughts:

1) We can drop the absolute value in this case. We're talking about a
population of some sort, or money. We won't need negative numbers.

2) We only have to write +C on one side. Yes, every time you integrate,
a +Cshould appear. But whatever those constants might be, it's easy
enough to collect them both on one side, and call the result +C.

Now, we are not done solving a differentional equation until we have

solved for y. So we have to get rid of the natural logarithm (ln) by
making both sides of the equations exponents with e as the base.

So:

ln|y|=kt+C
elny=ekt+C

y=ekt+C

y=ekteC

Now, since C is a constant, then e^C is just some other constant. We'll
call that constant C. Now we have:

y=Cekt

This is your general exponential growth model.

y is the amount of the thing we're talking about after t units of time have
passed.

C is the initial amount of the thing we're talking about, when t=0.

e is the base of natural logarithms, and is approximately 2.71828...

k is a specific constant to each situation. There are several ways to

solve for it, depending on the situation. You can make a quick rule
for k by solving for it.

k=ln(yC)t
Or, in English: k is the natural log of the amount at t divided by the
initial amount C, all divided by how long it took to get from C to y.

t is time.

Depending on the specifics of the problem your facing, it might make

the most sense to just use the equation above as a formula.
Sometimes, it makes sense to take the initial conditions and set them
up as integral, and solve the new differential equation with the specific
conditions.

Sometimes we use slightly different versions of the above model (for

example (Newton's Law of Cooling). Sometimes, the model looks very
different from the above (as in logistic growth models). But the principle
is the same.

To give a more detailed answer, I would need a more specific question.

Hope this helps.

Exponential Model
Exponential model is associated with the name of Thomas Robert Malthus
(1766-1834) who first realized that any species can potentially increase in
numbers according to a geometric series. For example, if a species has
non-overlapping populations (e.g., annual plants), and each organism
produces R offspring, then, population numbers N in generations t=0,1,2,...
is equal to:

When t is large, then this equation can be approximated by an exponential

function:
There are 3 possible model outcomes:

1. Population exponentially declines (r < 0)

2. Population exponentially increases (r > 0)
3. Population does not change (r = 0)

Parameter r is called:

 Malthusian parameter
 Intrinsic rate of increase
 Instantaneous rate of natural increase
 Population growth rate

"Instantaneous rate of natural increase" and "Population growth rate" are

generic terms because they do not imply any relationship to population
density. It is better to use the term "Intrinsic rate of increase" for
parameter r in the logistic model rather than in the exponential model
because in the logistic model, r equals to the population growth rate at very
low density (no environmental resistance).

Assumptions of Exponential Model:

1. Continuous reproduction (e.g., no seasonality)

2. All organisms are identical (e.g., no age structure)
3. Environment is constant in space and time (e.g., resources are
unlimited)

However, exponential model is robust; it gives reasonable precision even if

these conditions do not met. Organisms may differ in their age, survival, and
mortality. But the population consists of a large number of organisms, and
thus their birth and death rates are averaged.

Parameter r in the exponential model can be interpreted as a difference

between the birth (reproduction) rate and the death rate:

where b is the birth rate and m is the death rate. Birth rate is the number of
offspring organisms produced per one existing organism in the population
per unit time. Death rate is the probability of dying per one organism. The
rate of population growth (r) is equal to birth rate (b) minus death rate (m).

Applications of the exponential model

 microbiology (growth of bacteria),

 conservation biology (restoration of disturbed populations),
 insect rearing (prediction of yield),
 plant or insect quarantine (population growth of introduced species),
 fishery (prediction of fish dynamics).

Logistic Model
Logistic Model

Logistic model was developed by Belgian mathematician Pierre Verhulst (1838) who suggested
that the rate of population increase may be limited, i.e., it may depend on population density:

At low densities (N < < 0), the population growth rate

is maximal and equals to ro. Parameter ro can be
interpreted as population growth rate in the absence of
intra-specific competition.

Population growth rate declines with population numbers, N, and reaches 0 when N = K.
Parameter K is the upper limit of population growth and it is called carrying capacity. It is
usually interpreted as the amount of resources expressed in the number of organisms that can
be supported by these resources. If population numbers exceed K, then population growth rate
becomes negative and population numbers decline. The dynamics of the population is
described by the differential equation:

which has the following solution:

Three possible model outcomes

1. Population increases and reaches a

plateau ( No < K). This is the logistic
curve.
2. Population decreases and reaches a
plateau ( No > K)
3. Population does not change
No= K or No = 0)
(

Logistic model has two equilibria: N = 0 and N = K. The first equilibrium is unstable because
any small deviation from this equilibrium will lead to population growth. The second
equilibrium is stable because after small disturbance the population returns to this equilibrium
state.

Logistic model combines two ecological processes: reproduction and competition. Both
processes depend on population numbers (or density). The rate of both processes corresponds
to the mass-action law with coefficients: ro for reproduction and ro/K for competition.

Interpretation of parameters of the logistic model

Parameter ro is relatively easy to interpret: this is the maximum possible rate of population
growth which is the net effect of reproduction and mortality (excluding density-dependent
mortality). Slowly reproducing organisms (elephants) have low ro and rapidly reproducing
organisms (majority of pest insects) have high ro. The problem with the logistic model is that
parameter ro controls not only population growth rate, but population decline rate (at N > K) as
well. Here biological sense becomes not clear. It is not obvious that organisms with a low
reproduction rate should die at the same slow rate. If reproduction is slow and mortality is fast,
then the logistic model will not work.

Parameter K has biological meaning for populations with a strong interaction among
individuals that controls their reproduction. For example, rodents have social structure that
controls reproduction, birds have territoriality, plants compete for space and light. However,
parameter K has no clear meaning for organisms whose population dynamics is determined by
the balance of reproduction and mortality processes (e.g., most insect populations). In this case
the equilibrium population density does not necessary correspond to the amount of resources;
thus, the term "carrying capacity" becomes confusing. For example, equilibrium density may
depend on mortality caused by natural enemies.

Discrete-time analogs of the exponential and logistic

models
Exponential model analog:

where t is time measured in generations, and R is net reproduction rate. For monovoltine
organisms (1 generation per year), R is the average number of offsprings per one parent. For
example, in monovoltine insects with a 1:1 sex ratio, R = Fecundity/2.

The dynamics of this model is similar to the continuous-time exponential model.

Logistic model analog (Ricker):

The dynamics of this model is similar to the continuous-time logistic model if population
growth rate is small (0 < ro < 0.5). However, if the population growth rate is high, then the
model may exhibit more complex dynamics: damping oscillations, cycles, or chaos
(see Lecture 9). An example of damping oscillations is shown below:
.

Complex dynamics results from a time delay in feed-back mechanisms. There are no
intermediate steps between time t and time t+1. Thus, overcompensation may occur if the
population grows or declines too fast passing the equilibrium point. In the continuous-time
logistic model, there is no delay because the rate of population growth is updated continuously.
Thus, the population density cannot pass the equilibrium point.

Model exponential growth and decay

In real-world applications, we need to model the behavior of a

function. In mathematical modeling, we choose a familiar general
function with properties that suggest that it will model the
real-world phenomenon we wish to analyze. In the case of rapid
growth, we may choose the exponential growth function:

\displaystyle y={A}_{0}{e}^{kt}y=A0ekt
where \displaystyle {A}_{0}A0 is equal to the value at time
zero, e is Euler’s constant, and k is a positive constant that
determines the rate (percentage) of growth. We may use
the exponential growth function in applications involving doubling
time, the time it takes for a quantity to double. Such phenomena as
wildlife populations, financial investments, biological samples, and
natural resources may exhibit growth based on a doubling time. In
some applications, however, as we will see when we discuss the
logistic equation, the logistic model sometimes fits the data better
than the exponential model.
On the other hand, if a quantity is falling rapidly toward zero,
without ever reaching zero, then we should probably choose
the exponential decay model. Again, we have the

form \displaystyle y={A}_{0}{e}^{kt}y=A0ekt

where \displaystyle {A}_{0}A0 is the starting value, and e is
Euler’s constant. Now k is a negative constant that determines the
rate of decay. We may use the exponential decay model when we are
calculating half-life, or the time it takes for a substance to
exponentially decay to half of its original quantity. We use half-life in
applications involving radioactive isotopes.
In our choice of a function to serve as a mathematical model, we
often use data points gathered by careful observation and
measurement to construct points on a graph and hope we can
recognize the shape of the graph. Exponential growth and decay
graphs have a distinctive shape, as we can see in Figure 2 and Figure
3. It is important to remember that, although parts of each of the
two graphs seem to lie on the x-axis, they are really a tiny distance
above the x-axis.
 Figure
2. A graph showing exponential growth. The equation

is \displaystyle y=2{e}^{3x}y=2e3x.

Figure
3. A graph showing exponential decay. The equation

is \displaystyle y=3{e}^{-2x}y=3e−2x.
Exponential growth and decay often involve very large or very small
numbers. To describe these numbers, we often use orders of
magnitude. The order of magnitude is the power of ten, when the
number is expressed in scientific notation, with one digit to the left
of the decimal. For example, the distance to the nearest
star, Proxima Centauri, measured in kilometers, is
40,113,497,200,000 kilometers. Expressed in scientific notation,

this is \displaystyle 4.01134972\times

{10}^{13}4.01134972×1013. So, we could describe this
number as having order of magnitude \displaystyle
{10}^{13}1013.

A GENERAL NOTE: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXPONENTIAL

FUNCTION, \DISPLAYSTYLE Y=A_{0}E^{KT}Y=A0EKT

An exponential function with the form \displaystyle

y={A}_{0}{e}^{kt}y=A0ekt has the following characteristics:

 one-to-one function

 horizontal asymptote: y = 0

 domain: \displaystyle \left(-\infty , \infty

\right)(−∞,∞)

 range: \displaystyle \left(0,\infty \right)(0,∞)

 x intercept: none

 y-intercept: \displaystyle \left(0,{A}_{0}\right)(0,A0)

 increasing if k > 0

 decreasing if k < 0
Figure 4. An exponential function models exponential growth when k > 0 and
exponential decay when k < 0.

EXAMPLE 1: GRAPHING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

A population of bacteria doubles every hour. If the culture started with 10 bacteria, graph
the population as a function of time.

SOLUTION

When an amount grows at a fixed percent per unit time, the growth is exponential. To

find \displaystyle {A}_{0}A0 we use the fact that \displaystyle

{A}_{0}A0 is the amount at time zero, so \displaystyle {A}_{0}=10A0
=10. To find k, use the fact that after one hour \displaystyle
\left(t=1\right)(t=1) the population doubles from 10 to 20. The formula is
derived as follows
 ⎧⎨⎩ 20=10ek⋅ 1 2=ekDivide by 10ln2=kTake the natural
logarithm{ 20=10ek⋅ 1 2=ekDivide by 10ln2=kTake the natural
logarithm

so \displaystyle k=\mathrm{ln}\left(2\right)k=ln(2). Thus the

equation we want to graph is \displaystyle
y=10{e}^{\left(\mathrm{ln}2\right)t}=10{\left({e}^{\m
athrm{ln}2}\right)}^{t}=10\cdot {2}^{t}y=10e(ln2)t=10(e
ln2)t=10⋅ 2t. The graph is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. The graph of \displaystyle

y=10{e}^{\left(\mathrm{ln}2\right)t}y=10e(ln2)t

Analysis of the Solution

The population of bacteria after ten hours is 10,240. We could
describe this amount is being of the order of

magnitude \displaystyle {10}^{4}104. The population of

bacteria after twenty hours is 10,485,760 which is of the order of

magnitude \displaystyle {10}^{7}107, so we could say that the

population has increased by three orders of magnitude in ten hours.

Half-Life

We now turn to exponential decay. One of the common terms

associated with exponential decay, as stated above, is half-life, the
length of time it takes an exponentially decaying quantity to
decrease to half its original amount. Every radioactive isotope has a
half-life, and the process describing the exponential decay of an
isotope is called radioactive decay.
To find the half-life of a function describing exponential decay, solve
the following equation:

\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}{A}_{0}={A}_{o}{e}^{kt}21A0=Ao
ekt
We find that the half-life depends only on the constant k and not on

the starting quantity \displaystyle {A}_{0}A0.

The formula is derived as follows
⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩12A0=Aoekt12=ektDivide
by A0.ln(12)=ktTake the natural log.−ln(2)=ktApply laws of
logarithms.−ln(2)k=tDivide by k.{12A0=Aoekt12=ektDivide
by A0.ln(12)=ktTake the natural log.−ln(2)=ktApply laws of
logarithms.−ln(2)k=tDivide by k.
Since t, the time, is positive, k must, as expected, be negative. This
gives us the half-life formula

\displaystyle t=-\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(2\right)}{k}t=−
kln(2)
HOW TO: GIVEN THE HALF-LIFE, FIND THE DECAY RATE.

1. Write \displaystyle A={A}_{o}{e}^{kt}A=Aoekt.

2. Replace A by \displaystyle \frac{1}{2}{A}_{0}21A0

and replace t by the given half-life.

3. Solve to find k. Express k as an exact value (do not round).

Note: It is also possible to find the decay rate using \displaystyle

k=-\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(2\right)}{t}k=−tln(2).

EXAMPLE 2: FINDING THE FUNCTION THAT DESCRIBES

RADIOACTIVE DECAY

The half-life of carbon-14 is 5,730 years. Express the amount of carbon-14 remaining as

a function of time, t.

SOLUTION

This formula is derived as follows.

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩ A=A0ektThe continuous growth

formula.0.5A0=A0ek⋅ 5730Substitute the half-life
for t and 0.5A0 for f(t). 0.5=e5730kDivide by A0.ln(0.5)=5730kTake
the natural log of both sides. k=ln(0.5)5730Divide by the coefficient
of k. A=A0e(ln(0.5)5730)tSubstitute for r in the continuous growth
formula.{ A=A0ektThe continuous growth
formula.0.5A0=A0ek⋅ 5730Substitute the half-life
for t and 0.5A0 for f(t). 0.5=e5730kDivide by A0.ln(0.5)=5730kTake
the natural log of both sides. k=ln(0.5)5730Divide by the coefficient
 of k. A=A0e(ln(0.5)5730)tSubstitute for r in the continuous growth
formula.

The function that describes this continuous decay is \displaystyle

f\left(t\right)={A}_{0}{e}^{\left(\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(
0.5\right)}{5730}\right)t}f(t)=A0e(5730ln(0.5))t. We observe that the
coefficient of t, \displaystyle

\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(0.5\right)}{5730}\approx
-1.20975730ln(0.5)≈−1.2097is negative, as expected in the case of
exponential decay.

TRY IT 1

The half-life of plutonium-244 is 80,000,000 years. Find function gives the amount of
carbon-14 remaining as a function of time, measured in years.

Solution

Radiocarbon Dating

The formula for radioactive decay is important in radiocarbon

dating, which is used to calculate the approximate date a plant or
animal died. Radiocarbon dating was discovered in 1949 by Willard
Libby, who won a Nobel Prize for his discovery. It compares the
difference between the ratio of two isotopes of carbon in an organic
artifact or fossil to the ratio of those two isotopes in the air. It is
believed to be accurate to within about 1% error for plants or
animals that died within the last 60,000 years.
Carbon-14 is a radioactive isotope of carbon that has a half-life of
5,730 years. It occurs in small quantities in the carbon dioxide in the
air we breathe. Most of the carbon on Earth is carbon-12, which has
an atomic weight of 12 and is not radioactive. Scientists have
determined the ratio of carbon-14 to carbon-12 in the air for the
last 60,000 years, using tree rings and other organic samples of
known dates—although the ratio has changed slightly over the
centuries.
As long as a plant or animal is alive, the ratio of the two isotopes of
carbon in its body is close to the ratio in the atmosphere. When it
dies, the carbon-14 in its body decays and is not replaced. By
comparing the ratio of carbon-14 to carbon-12 in a decaying
sample to the known ratio in the atmosphere, the date the plant or
animal died can be approximated.
Since the half-life of carbon-14 is 5,730 years, the formula for the
amount of carbon-14 remaining after t years is

\displaystyle A\approx
{A}_{0}{e}^{\left(\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(0.5\right)}{57
30}\right)t}A≈A0e(5730ln(0.5))t
where
 A is the amount of carbon-14 remaining

 \displaystyle {A}_{0}A0 is the amount of carbon-14 when

the plant or animal began decaying.

This formula is derived as follows:

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩ A=A0ektThe continuous
growth formula. 0.5A0=A0ek⋅ 5730Substitute the half-life
for t and 0.5A0 for f(t). 0.5=e5730kDivide
by A0.ln(0.5)=5730kTake the natural log of both
sides. k=ln(0.5)5730Divide by the coefficient
of k. A=A0e(ln(0.5)5730)tSubstitute for r in the continuous growth
formula.{ A=A0ektThe continuous growth
formula. 0.5A0=A0ek⋅ 5730Substitute the half-life
for t and 0.5A0 for f(t). 0.5=e5730kDivide
 by A0.ln(0.5)=5730kTake the natural log of both
sides. k=ln(0.5)5730Divide by the coefficient
of k. A=A0e(ln(0.5)5730)tSubstitute for r in the continuous
growth formula.
To find the age of an object, we solve this equation for t:

\displaystyle
t=\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(\frac{A}{{A}_{0}}\right)}{-0.0
00121}t=−0.000121ln(A0A)
Out of necessity, we neglect here the many details that a scientist
takes into consideration when doing carbon-14 dating, and we only
look at the basic formula. The ratio of carbon-14 to carbon-12 in
the atmosphere is approximately 0.0000000001%. Let r be the
ratio of carbon-14 to carbon-12 in the organic artifact or fossil to
be dated, determined by a method called liquid scintillation. From

the equation \displaystyle A\approx

{A}_{0}{e}^{-0.000121t}A≈A0e−0.000121t we know the ratio
of the percentage of carbon-14 in the object we are dating to the

percentage of carbon-14 in the atmosphere is \displaystyle

r=\frac{A}{{A}_{0}}\approx {e}^{-0.000121t}r=A0A≈e
−0.000121t. We solve this equation for t, to get

\displaystyle
t=\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(r\right)}{-0.000121}t=
−0.000121ln(r)

HOW TO: GIVEN THE PERCENTAGE OF CARBON-14 IN AN

OBJECT, DETERMINE ITS AGE.

1. Express the given percentage of carbon-14 as an equivalent

decimal, k.
 2. Substitute for k in the equation \displaystyle
t=\frac{\mathrm{ln}\left(r\right)}{-0.000121}t=
−0.000121ln(r) and solve for the age, t.

EXAMPLE 2: FINDING THE AGE OF A BONE

A bone fragment is found that contains 20% of its original carbon-14. To the nearest year,
how old is the bone?

SOLUTION

We substitute 20% = 0.20 for k in the equation and solve for t:

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩t=ln(r)−0.000121Use the general form of the

equation.=ln(0.20)−0.000121Substitute for r.≈13301Round to the nearest
year.{t=ln(r)−0.000121Use the general form of the
equation.=ln(0.20)−0.000121Substitute for r.≈13301Round to the
nearest year.

The bone fragment is about 13,301 years old.

Analysis of the Solution

The instruments that measure the percentage of carbon-14 are

extremely sensitive and, as we mention above, a scientist will need to
do much more work than we did in order to be satisfied. Even so,
carbon dating is only accurate to about 1%, so this age should be
given as 13,301 years±1% or 13,301 years±133 years13,301
years±1% or 13,301 years±133 years.

TRY IT 2
Cesium-137 has a half-life of about 30 years. If we begin with 200 mg of cesium-137, will
it take more or less than 230 years until only 1 milligram remains?

Solution

Calculating Doubling Time

For decaying quantities, we determined how long it took for half of a

substance to decay. For growing quantities, we might want to find
out how long it takes for a quantity to double. As we mentioned
above, the time it takes for a quantity to double is called the doubling
time.

Given the basic exponential growth equation \displaystyle

A={A}_{0}{e}^{kt}A=A0ekt, doubling time can be found by
solving for when the original quantity has doubled, that is, by

solving \displaystyle 2{A}_{0}={A}_{0}{e}^{kt}2A0=A0ekt.

The formula is derived as follows:
⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩2A0=A0ekt2=ektDivide by A0.ln2=ktTake the natural
logarithm.t=ln2kDivide by the coefficient
of t.{2A0=A0ekt2=ektDivide by A0.ln2=ktTake the natural
logarithm.t=ln2kDivide by the coefficient of t.
Thus the doubling time is

\displaystyle t=\frac{\mathrm{ln}2}{k}t=kln2

EXAMPLE 3: FINDING A FUNCTION THAT DESCRIBES

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

According to Moore’s Law, the doubling time for the number of transistors that can be put
on a computer chip is approximately two years. Give a function that describes this behavior.

SOLUTION
The formula is derived as follows:

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩t=ln2kThe doubling time formula.2=ln2kUse a

doubling time of two years.k=ln22Multiply by k and divide by
2.A=A0eln22tSubstitute k into the continuous growth formula.{t=ln2kThe
doubling time formula.2=ln2kUse a doubling time of two
years.k=ln22Multiply by k and divide by
2.A=A0eln22tSubstitute k into the continuous growth formula.

The function is \displaystyle

A={A}_{0}{e}^{\frac{\mathrm{ln}2}{2}t}A=A0e2ln2t.

Use Newton’s Law of Cooling

Exponential decay can also be applied to temperature. When a hot

object is left in surrounding air that is at a lower temperature, the
object’s temperature will decrease exponentially, leveling off as it
approaches the surrounding air temperature. On a graph of the
temperature function, the leveling off will correspond to a horizontal
asymptote at the temperature of the surrounding air. Unless the
room temperature is zero, this will correspond to a vertical shift of
the generic exponential decay function. This translation leads
to Newton’s Law of Cooling, the scientific formula for temperature as
a function of time as an object’s temperature is equalized with the
ambient temperature

\displaystyle T\left(t\right)=a{e}^{kt}+{T}_{s}T(t)=aekt+Ts
This formula is derived as follows:
⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩T(t)=Abct+TsT(t)=Aeln(bct)+TsLaws of
logarithms.T(t)=Aectlnb+TsLaws of
 logarithms.T(t)=Aekt+TsRename the constant clnb, calling
it k.{T(t)=Abct+TsT(t)=Aeln(bct)+TsLaws of
logarithms.T(t)=Aectlnb+TsLaws of
logarithms.T(t)=Aekt+TsRename the constant clnb, calling it k.

A GENERAL NOTE: NEWTON’S LAW OF COOLING

The temperature of an object, T, in surrounding air with temperature \displaystyle

{T}_{s}Ts will behave according to the formula

\displaystyle T\left(t\right)=A{e}^{kt}+{T}_{s}T(t)=Aekt+Ts
where

 t is time

 A is the difference between the initial temperature of the

object and the surroundings

 k is a constant, the continuous rate of cooling of the object

HOW TO: GIVEN A SET OF CONDITIONS, APPLY NEWTON’S

LAW OF COOLING.

1. Set \displaystyle {T}_{s}Ts equal to the y-coordinate of the

horizontal asymptote (usually the ambient temperature).

2. Substitute the given values into the continuous growth

formula \displaystyle
T\left(t\right)=A{e}^{k}{}^{t}+{T}_{s}T(t)=Aekt+Ts to
find the parameters A and k.

3. Substitute in the desired time to find the temperature or the

desired temperature to find the time.
EXAMPLE 4: USING NEWTON’S LAW OF COOLING

A cheesecake is taken out of the oven with an ideal internal temperature

of \displaystyle 165^\circ\text{F}165∘ F, and is placed into

a \displaystyle 35^\circ\text{F}35∘ F refrigerator. After 10 minutes,
the cheesecake has cooled to \displaystyle 150^\circ\text{F}150∘ F. If
we must wait until the cheesecake has cooled to \displaystyle
70^\circ\text{F}70∘ F before we eat it, how long will we have to wait?

SOLUTION

Because the surrounding air temperature in the refrigerator is 35 degrees, the cheesecake’s
temperature will decay exponentially toward 35, following the equation

\displaystyle T\left(t\right)=A{e}^{kt}+35T(t)=Aekt+35

We know the initial temperature was 165, so \displaystyle

T\left(0\right)=165T(0)=165.

{165=Aek0+35Substitute (0,165).A=130Solve
for A.{165=Aek0+35Substitute (0,165).A=130Solve for A.

We were given another data point, \displaystyle

T\left(10\right)=150T(10)=150, which we can use to solve for k.

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩ 150=130ek10+35Substitute (10,

150). 115=130ek10Subtract 35. 115130=e10kDivide by
130. ln(115130)=10kTake the natural log of both
sides. k=ln(115130)10=−0.0123Divide by the coefficient
of k.{ 150=130ek10+35Substitute (10, 150). 115=130ek10Subtract
 35. 115130=e10kDivide by 130. ln(115130)=10kTake the natural
log of both sides. k=ln(115130)10=−0.0123Divide by the coefficient
of k.

This gives us the equation for the cooling of the cheesecake: \displaystyle
T\left(t\right)=130{e}^{-0.0123t}+35T(t)=130e−0.0123t
+35.

Now we can solve for the time it will take for the temperature to cool to 70 degrees.

⎧⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎨⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪⎩70=130e−0.0123t+35Substitute in 70
for T(t).35=130e−0.0123tSubtract 35.35130=e−0.0123tDivide by
130.ln(35130)=−0.0123tTake the natural log of both
sidest=ln(35130)−0.0123≈106.68Divide by the coefficient
of t.{70=130e−0.0123t+35Substitute in 70
for T(t).35=130e−0.0123tSubtract 35.35130=e−0.0123tDivide by
130.ln(35130)=−0.0123tTake the natural log of both
sidest=ln(35130)−0.0123≈106.68Divide by the coefficient of t.

It will take about 107 minutes, or one hour and 47 minutes, for the cheesecake to cool

to \displaystyle 70^\circ\text{F}70∘ F.

Use logistic-growth models

Exponential growth cannot continue forever. Exponential models,

while they may be useful in the short term, tend to fall apart the
longer they continue. Consider an aspiring writer who writes a single
line on day one and plans to double the number of lines she writes
each day for a month. By the end of the month, she must write over
17 billion lines, or one-half-billion pages. It is impractical, if not
impossible, for anyone to write that much in such a short period of
time. Eventually, an exponential model must begin to approach some
limiting value, and then the growth is forced to slow. For this reason,
it is often better to use a model with an upper bound instead of
an exponential growth model, though the exponential growth model
is still useful over a short term, before approaching the limiting value.
The logistic growth model is approximately exponential at first, but
it has a reduced rate of growth as the output approaches the model’s
upper bound, called the carrying capacity. For constants a, b, and c,
the logistic growth of a population over time x is represented by the
model

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=
1+ae−bxc
Figure 6 shows how the growth rate changes over time. The graph
increases from left to right, but the growth rate only increases until
it reaches its point of maximum growth rate, at which point the rate
of increase decreases.

Figure 6
A GENERAL NOTE: LOGISTIC GROWTH

The logistic growth model is

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=1+ae−bxc
where

 \displaystyle \frac{c}{1+a}1+ac is the initial value

 c is the carrying capacity, or limiting value

 b is a constant determined by the rate of growth.

EXAMPLE 5: USING THE LOGISTIC-GROWTH MODEL

An influenza epidemic spreads through a population rapidly, at a rate that depends on two
factors: The more people who have the flu, the more rapidly it spreads, and also the more
uninfected people there are, the more rapidly it spreads. These two factors make the logistic
model a good one to study the spread of communicable diseases. And, clearly, there is a
maximum value for the number of people infected: the entire population.

For example, at time t = 0 there is one person in a community of 1,000 people who has
the flu. So, in that community, at most 1,000 people can have the flu. Researchers find

that for this particular strain of the flu, the logistic growth constant is b = 0.6030.
Estimate the number of people in this community who will have had this flu after ten days.
Predict how many people in this community will have had this flu after a long period of
time has passed.

SOLUTION

We substitute the given data into the logistic growth model

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=1+ae−bxc
Because at most 1,000 people, the entire population of the community, can get the flu, we

know the limiting value is c = 1000. To find a, we use the formula that the number of

cases at time t = 0 is \displaystyle \frac{c}{1+a}=11+ac=1, from

which it follows that a = 999. This model predicts that, after ten days, the number of

people who have had the flu is \displaystyle

f\left(x\right)=\frac{1000}{1+999{e}^{-0.6030x}}\app
rox 293.8f(x)=1+999e−0.6030x1000≈293.8. Because the actual
number must be a whole number (a person has either had the flu or not) we round to 294.

In the long term, the number of people who will contract the flu is the limiting value, c =
1000.

Analysis of the Solution

Remember that, because we are dealing with a virus, we cannot

predict with certainty the number of people infected. The model only
approximates the number of people infected and will not give us
exact or actual values.
Figure 7 gives a good picture of how this model fits the data.
 Figure 7. The graph of \displaystyle
f\left(x\right)=\frac{1000}{1+999{e}^{-0.6030x}}f(x)=
1+999e−0.6030x1000

TRY IT 5

Using the model in Example 5, estimate the number of cases of flu on day 15.

Solution

Use logistic-growth models

Exponential growth cannot continue forever. Exponential models,

while they may be useful in the short term, tend to fall apart the
longer they continue. Consider an aspiring writer who writes a single
line on day one and plans to double the number of lines she writes
each day for a month. By the end of the month, she must write over
17 billion lines, or one-half-billion pages. It is impractical, if not
impossible, for anyone to write that much in such a short period of
time. Eventually, an exponential model must begin to approach some
limiting value, and then the growth is forced to slow. For this reason,
it is often better to use a model with an upper bound instead of
an exponential growth model, though the exponential growth model
is still useful over a short term, before approaching the limiting value.
The logistic growth model is approximately exponential at first, but
it has a reduced rate of growth as the output approaches the model’s
upper bound, called the carrying capacity. For constants a, b, and c,
the logistic growth of a population over time x is represented by the
model

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=
1+ae−bxc
Figure 6 shows how the growth rate changes over time. The graph
increases from left to right, but the growth rate only increases until
it reaches its point of maximum growth rate, at which point the rate
of increase decreases.
Figure 6

A GENERAL NOTE: LOGISTIC GROWTH

The logistic growth model is

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=1+ae−bxc
where

 \displaystyle \frac{c}{1+a}1+ac is the initial value

 c is the carrying capacity, or limiting value

 b is a constant determined by the rate of growth.

EXAMPLE 5: USING THE LOGISTIC-GROWTH MODEL

An influenza epidemic spreads through a population rapidly, at a rate that depends on two
factors: The more people who have the flu, the more rapidly it spreads, and also the more
uninfected people there are, the more rapidly it spreads. These two factors make the logistic
model a good one to study the spread of communicable diseases. And, clearly, there is a
maximum value for the number of people infected: the entire population.

For example, at time t = 0 there is one person in a community of 1,000 people who has
the flu. So, in that community, at most 1,000 people can have the flu. Researchers find

that for this particular strain of the flu, the logistic growth constant is b = 0.6030.
Estimate the number of people in this community who will have had this flu after ten days.
Predict how many people in this community will have had this flu after a long period of
time has passed.

SOLUTION

We substitute the given data into the logistic growth model

\displaystyle f\left(x\right)=\frac{c}{1+a{e}^{-bx}}f(x)=1+ae−bxc
Because at most 1,000 people, the entire population of the community, can get the flu, we

know the limiting value is c = 1000. To find a, we use the formula that the number of

cases at time t = 0 is \displaystyle \frac{c}{1+a}=11+ac=1, from

which it follows that a = 999. This model predicts that, after ten days, the number of

people who have had the flu is \displaystyle

f\left(x\right)=\frac{1000}{1+999{e}^{-0.6030x}}\app
rox 293.8f(x)=1+999e−0.6030x1000≈293.8. Because the actual
number must be a whole number (a person has either had the flu or not) we round to 294.

In the long term, the number of people who will contract the flu is the limiting value, c =
1000.

Analysis of the Solution

Remember that, because we are dealing with a virus, we cannot

predict with certainty the number of people infected. The model only
approximates the number of people infected and will not give us
exact or actual values.
Figure 7 gives a good picture of how this model fits the data.

Figure 7. The graph of \displaystyle

f\left(x\right)=\frac{1000}{1+999{e}^{-0.6030x}}f(x)=
1+999e−0.6030x

How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic

Equations
By: John Vandermeer (Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of
Michigan) © 2010 Nature Education

Citation: Vandermeer, J. (2010) How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic Equations. Nature
Education Knowledge 3(10):15
What are the underlying principles of how populations change over
time? Two basic principles are involved, the idea of exponential growth
and its ultimate control.
Aa Aa Aa

Introduction
The basics of population ecology emerge from some of the most elementary considerations of biological facts. Recall,
for example, the basic problem of mitosis, to make two cells from one. When the elementary student first studies mitosis
it is usually about the details of what happens, at the cellular and biochemical level. Here we look at the same problem,
but at the other end of the conceptual gradient. When a cell divides, again and again, what does that imply about the
resulting collection of cells? For example, in Figure 1 we see a population of Paramecium over a six day period. How do
population ecologists quantitatively describe such a population? (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Changes in a population of Paramecium over a six day period

Each individual in the population divides once per day.
The Exponential Equation is a Standard Model Describing the Growth of a
Single Population
The easiest way to capture the idea of a growing population is with a single celled organism, such as a bacterium or a
cilliate. In Figure 1, a population of Paramecium in a small laboratory depression slide is pictured. In this population the
individuals divide once per day. So, starting with a single individual at day 0, we expect, in successive days, 2, 4, 8, 16,
32, and 64 individuals in the population. We can see here that, on any particular day, the number of individuals in the
population is simply twice what the number was the day before, so the number today, call it N(today), is equal to twice
the number yesterday, call it N(yesterday), which we can write more compactly as N(today) = 2N(yesterday).

Since the basic rule of cell division applies not only to today and yesterday, but to any day at all, we would have N(6) =
2N(5), or N(4) = 2N(3), etc.

So it makes sense to write this as, N(t) = 2N(t - 1) where t could take on any value at all.

Now we can generalize this idea a bit if we note that at day six the number is equal to twice the number at day five,
or N(6) = 2N(5) and at day five the number is equal to twice the number at day four, or N(5) = 2N(4), etc.

So in the equation for day 6 we can substitute for the value of N(5) — which we know to be 2N(4) — getting N(6) =
2[2N(4)], which is the same as N(6) = 22N(4).

But N(4) = 2N(3), so we can substitute for N(4) getting N(6) = 22N(4) = 22[2N(3)] = 23N(3). And if we follow the same
pattern we see that N(3) = 23N(0), which we can substitute for N(3) to get N(6) = 26N(0). Thus we can see a relatively
simple generalization, namely

where t stands for any time at all (e.g., if t = 6, N(6) = 26[N(0)]).

Finally we note that this equation was derived from the specific situation shown in Figure 1, where one division per day
was the hard and fast rule. That is where the 2 comes from in Equation 1 — from each individual Paramecium we
obtain two individuals the next day. Of course the division rate could be anything. If there were two divisions per day but
one cell always died, we would expect three individuals from each single individual and Equation 1 would be N(t) =
3tN(0). So the division rate could be any number at all and the general equation becomes,

where R is usually called the finite rate of population increase (in the actual case of dividing Paramecium the finite rate
of population increase is equal to the division rate). In Figure 2 we illustrate this equation for various values of R. It is
normally referred to as the exponential equation, and the form of the data in Figure 2 is the general form called
exponential.
Figure 2: Left: general form of exponential growth of a population (equation 2). Right: actual numbers of
Paramecium in a 1 cc sample of a laboratory culture.

Any value of R can be represented in an infinite number of ways (e.g., if R = 16, we could write R = 8 x 2, or R = 42,
or R = 32/2, or R = 2.718282.77). That last expression (R = 2.718282.77) makes use of an important constant that
might be recalled from elementary calculus, Euler’s constant. Expressing whatever value of R as Euler’s constant
raised to some power is actually extremely useful — it brings the full power of calculus into the picture. If we symbolize
Euler’s constant as e we can write Equation 2 as

Now if we take the natural log of both sides of Equation 3 — remember ln(ex) = x — Equation 3 becomes: ln [N(t)]
= ln [N(0)] + rt

And if we began the population with a single individual (as in the example above), we have

from which we see that the natural log of the population, at any particular time, is some constant, times that time. The
constant r is referred to as the intrinsic rate of natural increase (Figure 2).

All sorts of microorganisms exhibit patterns that are very close to exponential population growth. For example, in the
right hand graph of Figure 2 is a population of Paramecium growing in a laboratory culture. The pattern of growth is very
close to the pattern of the exponential equation.
Another way of writing the exponential equation is as a differential equation, that is, representing the growth of the
population in its dynamic form. Rather than asking what is the size of the population at time t, we ask, what is the rate at
which the population is growing at time t. The rate is symbolized as dN/dt which simply means “change in N relative to
change in t,” and if you recall your basic calculus, we can find the rate of growth by differentiating Equation 4, which
gives us

which is kind of remarkable, because it says that the rate of growth of the log of the number in the population is constant.
That constant rate of growth of the log of the population is the intrinsic rate of increase.

Recall that the rate of change of the log of a number is the same as the “per capita” change in that number, which
means we can write Equation 5 as

where we omit the variable t since it is obvious where it goes, and then we rearrange a bit to come up with

where the parameter r is, again, the intrinsic rate of natural increase. The basic relationship between finite rate of
increase and intrinsic rate is

r = ln(R)

where ln refers to the natural logarithm. Note that Equation 6 and Equation 3 are just different forms of the same
equation (Equation 3 is the integrated form of Equation 6; Equation 6 is the differentiated form of Equation 3), and both
may be referred to simply as the exponential equation.

Figure 3: Hypothetical case of a pest population in an agroecosystem

According to model 1 (which has a relatively large estimate of R), the farmer needs to think about applying a control
procedure about half way through the season. According to model 2 (which has a relatively small estimate of R),
the farmer need not worry about controlling the pest at all, since its population exceeds the economic threshold
only after the harvest. Clearly, it is important to know which model is correct. In this case, according to the available
data (blue data points), either model 1 or 2 appears to provide a good fit, leaving the farmer still in limbo.

The exponential equation is a useful model of simple populations, at least for relatively short periods of time. For
example, if a laboratory technician needs to know when a bacterial culture reaches a certain population density, the
exponential equation can be used to provide a prediction as to exactly when that population size will be reached.
Another example is in the case of agricultural pests. Herbivores are always potentially major problems for plants. When
the plants subjected to such outbreaks are agricultural, which is to say crops, the loss can be very significant for both
farmer and consumer. Thus, there is always pressure to prevent such outbreaks. Since WWII the major weapon in
fighting such pest outbreaks has been chemical pesticides, such as DDT. However, in recent years we have come to
realize that these pesticides are extremely dangerous over the long run, both for the environment and for people.
Consequently there has been a movement to limit the amount of pesticides that are sprayed to combat pests. The
major way this is done is to establish an economic threshold, which is the population density of the potential pest below
which the damage to the crop is insignificant (i.e., it is not really necessary to spray). When the pest population
increases above that threshold, the farmer needs to take action and apply some sort of pesticide, or other means of
controlling the pest. Given the nature of this problem, it is sometimes of utmost importance to be able to predict when
the pest will reach the economic threshold. Knowing the R for the pest species enables the farmer to predict when it will
be necessary to apply some sort of control procedure (Figure 3).

The exponential equation is also a useful model for developing intuitive ideas about populations. The classic example is
a pond with a population of lily pads. If each lily pad reproduces itself (two pads take the place of where one pad had
been) each month, and it took, say, three years for the pond to become half filled with lily pads, how much longer will it
take for the pond to be completely covered with lily pads? If you don’t stop to think too clearly, it is tempting to say that
it will take just as much time, three years, for the second half of the pond to become as filled as the first. The answer, of
course, is one month.

Another popular example is the proverbial ancient Egyptian (or sometimes Persian) mathematician who asks payment
from the king in the form of grains of wheat (sometimes rice). One grain on the first square of a chess board, two grains
on the second square, and so forth, until the last square. The Pharaoh cannot imagine that such a simple payment
could amount to much, and so agrees. But he did not fully appreciate exponential growth. Since there are 64 squares
on the chess board, we can use Equation 2 to determine how many grains of wheat will be required to pay on the last
square (R raised to the 64th power, which is about 18,446,744,074,000,000,000 — a lot of wheat indeed, certainly
more than in the whole kingdom). These examples emphasize the frequently surprising way in which an exponential
process can lead to very large numbers very rapidly.

The Idea of Density Dependence Modifies the Exponential Equation

Figure 4: Growth of the human population of the United States of America during the nineteenth century
(blue curve), and estimates of the intrinsic rates of increase during that period (red data points)
Note the general tendency for r to decrease throughout the century even while the overall population is increasing.
While the exponential equation is a useful model of population dynamics (i.e., changes in population numbers over
time), in the real world we are not swimming in bacteria, or Paramecium, or slime moulds. That is, something happens
to stop the growth of organisms, be they cells in the body, ciliates in ponds or lions in the savanna. That something else
is usually referred to as intraspecific competition, which means that the performance of the individuals in the population
depends on how many individuals are in it, more usually referred to as density dependence. This is a complicated issue,
one that has inspired much debate and acrimony in the past, and one that still forms an important base for more modern
developments in ecology.

The idea was originally associated with the human population, and was brought to public attention as early as the
eighteenth century by Sir Thomas Malthus. His writings influenced Darwin’s thinking, and formed an important
component of the development of the idea of evolution by natural selection. Unfortunately, it is only the more
exaggerated claims of Malthus that are normally cited, usually in the context of the growth of the human population.
Malthus talked quite a lot about what in fact limits population growth. Indeed, an analysis of the growth of the US human
population in the nineteenth century reveals an interesting pattern, one that is repeated with many other organisms. If
we estimate the intrinsic rate of increase (the r in Equation 6) for short periods of time during the nineteenth century, we
find that there is a general decrease in those estimates during the century, at the same time there is an increase in the
numbers in the population (Figure 4).

These data for the US human population suggest something general about populations — as population numbers
increase, the estimate of the intrinsic rate of natural increase; over a short period of time, tends to decrease. This
means that there is a general relationship between the intrinsic rate of increase and population density. We can plot the
data from population studies like the one shown in Figure 4 as a graph of population density versus the estimate of
intrinsic rate of increase. The general appearance of such a graph is illustrated in Figure 5, for the same laboratory
population of Paramecium that we looked at before. (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Representing the intrinsic rate of increase as a function of population density for a laboratory
population of Paramecium
The higher the population density, the lower the intrinsic rate of increase.

The pattern in Figure 5 is very typical of many populations in both laboratory and natural settings. As with most data
from real populations, there is considerable variation. But the trend is clear — with higher population densities, the
intrinsic rate of increase tends to be smaller. So, ecologists have made a kind of generalization about this common
pattern. The intrinsic rate of increase, as defined in the exponential equation, is not a constant number at all but rather
is itself a function of the density of the population. As with many initial attempts at quantifying a concept, we assume a
linear approximation (e.g., the straight line drawn through the data points in Figure 5).

If we presume the r of the exponential equation is a function of N (the population density), rather than writing

as we did before (we keep the equation numbering system the same, so this equation is still Equation 3), we must
modify it in accordance with the observation that r is a function of N (which we write r = f[N]), which makes Equation 6
turn into
But if we assume f(N) is linear, we must write f(N) = a - bN, where a and b are two constants. So Equation 6 turns into

from which you can see that the differential equation of population growth takes on a quadratic form, which means it has
a shape that looks sort of exponential when N is very small, at the beginning of a population trajectory, and levels off
as N becomes large. The basic form of this equation is shown in Figure 6 when fitted to data from the same laboratory
population of Paramecium used to compute the data plotted in Figure 5 (Figure 6).

Figure 6: A laboratory population of Paramecium

Note how the density first looks exponential (indeed these are the same data presented in figure 2, but over a longer
time frame), but later, after the population gets to around 300 cells per cc, it levels off. This is the classic logistic pattern.
There is an alternative way of dealing with this same problem, one that usually makes more intuitive sense since it
provides the arbitrary constants with biological meaning. Consider the situation in Figure 7. This is a picture of a
caterpillar that lives in the tropical rain forests of Central America. The really interesting part of the picture is all the small
white cocoons on its back. These are cocoons filled with small parasitic wasps. The adult wasp lays eggs on the
caterpillar when it is young and the larval wasps eat the tissue of the growing caterpillar until they reach pupating size,
at which time they emerge through the cuticle of the caterpillar’s skin and form a cocoon, as you see in Figure 7. Here
we have a situation that would seem to create a natural limit for the population density of the wasps. If you count the
cocoons on the caterpillar in Figure 7, you will find there are 80 cocoons on this one hapless caterpillar. Suppose there
are 100 caterpillars in the environment. If this caterpillar represents the highest number of wasps that could possibly
successfully complete their life cycle on a single caterpillar (most likely the case), we can then say that there is a ceiling
on the potential population density of the wasps of 100 x 80 = 8000. Thus this environment for this species of wasp has
a carrying capacity of 8000 (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Tropical American caterpillar with parasitic wasps emerging and forming cocoons on the
caterpillar's back
Courtesy of John Vandermeer.

Now we go back to the exponential equation and ask what needs to be changed about it to take into account of this kind
of population ceiling, the carrying capacity. As before we can speculate that what happens in a population is that its
effective intrinsic rate of increase actually changes as the density of the population changes. But now we have a new
biological concept we can use in developing this theory — the carrying capacity. Let us suppose that the rate at which
a population is increasing at any given point in time is proportional to the relative amount of space available to the
population — a population with very few individuals will have a lot of space left and will thus grow rapidly, whereas a
population with many individuals will have less space left and will thus grow more slowly. That is, to take the concrete
example of the parasitic wasps in Figure 7, if there are 100 caterpillars in the environment, and there is space for 80
wasps at the most in each of them, then there is space for 8000 wasps in this environment. The actual amount of space
that remains available to the wasp population is 8000 - N, where N is the current population density of wasps. Thus the
relative amount of space left will be (8000 - N)/8000 (divide by 8000 because we wish to calculate the relative amount
of space left — the proportion or percentage of what could be maximally available). Population ecologists usually use
the symbol K for the carrying capacity, so the intrinsic rate would be multiplied by (K - N)/K. Substituting this Figure for
the f(N) (which is the function that the intrinsic rate of increase is) gives us our final result, the famous logistic equation
that describes logistic population growth.
 Its basic form has already been introduced (see Figure 6), and note that with a little bit of algebra the arbitrary
constants, a and b of Equation 7, take on intuitive biological meaning (i.e., a = r and b = r/K). For many smaller
organisms such as bacteria, ciliates, various amoeboid organisms, diatoms, and others, this equation describes
population growth reasonably well. For larger organisms such as elephants, humans, trees, or even mice, it is usually
thought to be too simple. More complicated models have been developed that take into account more aspects of an
organism’s life, but these are beyond the scope of an elementary introduction. For now, all that is necessary to know is
that much of population ecology, population genetics, and related fields have, as part of their founding rules, the
exponential equation and the logistic equation.

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